Why Artificial Intelligence is Very Hard

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Why Artificial Intelligence is

Very Hard

Theo Pavlidis

Distinguished Professor Emeritus

Stony Brook University t.pavlidis@ieee.org

http://theopavlidis.com

What is Artificial Intelligence?

• A machine that replicates the functionality of the human brain. (General or Strong AI)

“Around the Corner” since about 1945.

• A machine that does a specific task that traditionally has been done by humans.

(Narrow or Weak AI). Each specific application is treated as an engineering problem. Numerous successes.

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Successes in Narrow AI

(Seen in daily life)

• Restricted Speech Recognition

(in Banking and Airline reservation systems, etc)

• Credit Card Fraud Detection

• Web Tools

( Shopping Suggestions , Mechanical

Translation, etc)

• Simple Robots

( Roomba )

• 1D and 2D Bar Codes

(in stores and in shipping )

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Successes in Narrow AI

(Not Seen Everyday)

• Chess Playing Machines

• Optical Character Recognition

• Industrial Inspection

• Biometrics

(Fingerprints, Iris, etc)

• Medical Diagnosis

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Restricted Speech Recognition

• Grammar driven models (using low level context) have been quite successful.

• High level context is even better. For example, matching a speech fragment to a name on a list.

• Successful applications include Airline reservation systems and Call Center monitoring.

• See a demonstration of using voice for web search in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npRtTdGeWQA . The system is a product of Nuance Open Voice Search and it relies on personalization.

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Web Shopping:

Learning User Preferences

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Household Robot

Sept. 2008 http://store.irobot.com/home/index.jsp

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Making Reading Easy for

Computers

• Bar codes and two-dimensional symbologies are much easier to read than text because:

– They are formally defined.

– They include well-defined error detection or, in some cases, error correction codes thus providing their own context.

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Examples of Two-Dimensional Symbologies

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Maxicode (UPS)

T. Pavlidis

PDF417 (Fed Ex, DMV)

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Chess Playing Machines - 1

• Chess is a deterministic game, so a computer could derive a winning solution analytically.

However the number of all possible positions is so large (10 120 ) that using even the fastest available computer it will take billions of years to consider all possible moves.

• Skilled players may look at 20 moves ahead by pruning , i.e. ignoring non-promising moves.

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Chess Playing Machines - 2

• Around 1980 Ken Thompson developed a chess playing program called Belle based on a minicomputer with a hardware attachment used to generate moves very fast.

• Belle defeated all other computer programs and became the world champion.

• The use of special chess knowledge and special purpose hardware became the preferred approach since then.

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Deep Blue

(The IBM machine that beat the human world champion)

• A major focus of the effort was the development of special purpose hardware.

• An expert chess player (Murray Campbell ) contributed the evaluation functions of the moves generated by the hardware.

• The project had as a consultant an international grandmaster (Joel Benjamin who had played Kasparov to a draw in 1994).

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Optical Character Recognition

(OCR)

• Printed text characters have small shape variability and high contrast with the background.

• Spelling checkers (or ZIP code directories in postal applications) introduce low level context.

• Reading of the checks sent for payment to

American Express relies heavily on context.

– Payments are supposed to be in full and the amount due is known, so the number written on a check is analyzed to confirm whether it matches the amount due or not

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An Aside: Why did OCR mature when the need for it was diminished?

• The algorithms used in the products of the 1990s were known earlier but they were too complex to be implemented effectively with the digital technology of earlier times.

• When computer hardware became cheap enough for good OCR, it also became cheap enough for

PCs, the Internet, and direct bank transfers.

• Keep this in mind in your business plans!

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Features of Narrow AI

• Each Problem is Solved Separately even though certain common mathematical tools may be used (statistics, graph theory, signal processing, etc).

• Each Solution Relies Heavily on Specific

Environment Constraints and performance

(compared to that of humans) drops when these constraints are relaxed.

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Why Not General AI?

• Why “waste” time with all the special cases and not solve the general problem once for all?

• Why not use a “brain model” to solve all these problems?

• Are advances in general computer technology

(hardware, systems) likely to help? Why not wait for them rather than solving problems piecemeal?

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Humans may be machines, but they are very different from computers

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Some Experiments

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Can you read these words?

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Can you read these words?

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Reading Demo - 1

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Reading Demo - 1

Tentative binding on the letter shapes (bottom up) is finalized once a word is recognized (top down). Word shape and meaning over-ride early cues.

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Reading Demo -2

New York State lacks proper facilities for the mentally III.

The New York Jets won Superbowl III.

• Human readers may ignore entirely the shape of individual letters if they can infer the meaning through context.

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Reading dot-matrix print and fine laser print

From: T. Pavlidis ``Context Dependent Shape Perception,''in Aspects of

Visual Form Processing , (C. Arcelli, L. P. Cordella, and G. Sanniti di Baja, eds.) World Scientific, 1994, pp. 440-454.

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What Neuroscientist Say

• “Perceptions emerge as a result of reverberations of signals between different levels of the sensory hierarchy, indeed across different senses”. The author then goes on to criticize the view that “sensory processing involves a one-way cascade of information

(processing)”

• Source: V.S. Ramachandran and S. Blakeslee Phantoms in the

Brain , William Morrow and Company Inc., New York, 1998 (p. 56)

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The Importance of Context

• “Human intelligence almost always thrives on context while computers work on abstract numbers alone. … Independence from context is in fact a great strength of mathematics.”

• Source: Arno Penzias Ideas and Information ,

Norton, 1989, p. 49.

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The Big Difference Between

Humans and Machines

• Humans (and animals) use prior knowledge to deal with sensory input. The process involves a complex of bottom-up and topdown processes.

• It is hard to develop algorithms for a barely understood process.

• Certainly, we cannot match human behavior by a machine, unless the machine has prior knowledge of its environment.

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The Big Obstacle to General AI

• We have too little knowledge of how the brain works , especially how context is inferred and brought into play.

• Adding more CPU power helps only if we understand the problem (as in the case of chess), so general advances in computing are not likely to help.

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Brain Models maybe Counter-productive

• Once we accept that humans and computers are fundamentally different machines we should not try to imitate the way humans solve a problem.

• We should attack problems in their own right given the nature of digital computers. Chess playing machines are a prime example.

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How to Choose a Problem to Work On

• Problem should be well defined in an algorithmic sense and context should be available.

– For an example relying heavily on context see: http://www.theopavlidis.com/technology/BoxDimensions/overview.htm

• In processing the input, it should be clear what kind of information we need to extract . (Mathematical model of the physical world must exist.)

• Do not be too concerned about limitations in present day computer power.

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Acknowledgements

• I want to thank Prof. Paul Pavlidis of the

University of British Columbia for several constructive comments on an earlier draft of this presentation.

• The link to the speech recognition system of

Nuance was provided by Prof. Amanda Stent of Stony Brook University.

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