TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating
Model Predictions of European Storms
TEMPEST: Testing and Evaluating
Model Predictions of European Storms
‘What’s past is prologue; what to come, in yours
and my discharge.’ Act 2, Scene 1, The Tempest
Aims of the meeting
1. Review and discuss the science plan for TEMPEST
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Overview Len Shaffrey
WP1 Kevin Hodges
WP2 Tim Woollings
WP3 Tim Palmer
PhD studentships
2. A non-exhaustive overview of related UK research
• Presentations from related projects
• Help with project planning
3. Overview of the Storm Risk Mitigation (SRM) programme
• DIAMET (NWP) and DEMON (Impacts)
• SRM Programme communication, management and integration
People and Institutions
NCAS, Reading
Len Shaffrey
Dave Brayshaw
Mike Blackburn
Met Dept, Reading
Brian Hoskins
Helen Dacre
Tim Woollings
NCEO, Reading
Kevin Hodges
Exeter University
Renato Vitolo
David Stephenson
Oxford University
Tim Palmer
ECMWF (Partner)
tbc
Met Office (Partner)
Ruth McDonald
Simon Brown
Reading – Giuseppe Zappa, Ben Harvey, Matt Hawcroft
Oxford – Andrew Dawson
Exeter – Phil Sansom
Overview and Objectives
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical
cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural variability?
WP1 Provide the first systematic assessment of the predictions of intense extratropical
cyclones in the CMIP5 models using established and innovative analysis methodologies.
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted changes
are most robust?
WP2 Perform an integrated set of sensitivity experiments that will quantify the impact of
key processes in driving changes in the North Atlantic and European storm track.
Q3. How important are the features and processes that climate models poorly
represent due to their limited resolution?
WP3 Investigate the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones, and
their upscale effects, in very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments
capable of capturing mesoscale structures.
WP4 Develop an integrated research community to tackle the questions surrounding the
impact of climate change on extratropical cyclones and engage the wider scientific
community and external stakeholders.
Overview and Objectives
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical
cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural variability?
WP1 Provide the first systematic assessment of the predictions of intense extratropical
cyclones in the CMIP5 models using established and innovative analysis methodologies.
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted changes
are most robust?
WP2 Perform an integrated set of sensitivity experiments that will quantify the impact of
key processes in driving changes in the North Atlantic and European storm track.
Q3. How important are the features and processes that climate models poorly
represent due to their limited resolution?
WP3 Investigate the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones, and
their upscale effects, in very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments
capable of capturing mesoscale structures.
WP4 Develop an integrated research community to tackle the questions surrounding the
impact of climate change on extratropical cyclones and engage the wider scientific
community and external stakeholders.
TEMPEST Project Structure
WP4 Integration and pullthrough Lead Shaffrey
WP1 Assessing Storms
Lead Hodges
PDRA at Reading
WP2 Quantifying Processes
Lead Shaffrey
PDRA at Reading
Student Statistical Modelling of
Trends Exeter
WP3 Impact of Resolution
Lead Palmer
PDRA at Oxford
Student Latent Heat Release in
Storms Reading
•Project meetings every six months
• First meeting in Reading as a kick-off workshop; invite key stakeholders
• Final meeting in London to disseminate TEMPEST outcomes
•Total staff request: 3 PDRAs, 2 project studentships
TEMPEST Project Status
WP4 Integration and pullthrough Lead Shaffrey
WP1 Assessing Storms
Lead Hodges
Giuseppe Zappa
WP2 Quantifying Processes
Lead Shaffrey
Ben Harvey
Student Statistical Modelling of
Trends Exeter Phil Sansom
WP3 Impact of Resolution
Lead Palmer
Andrew Dawson
Student Latent Heat Release in
Storms Reading Matt Hawcroft
•All research positions have been filled
• Reading University posts have started
• Oxford and Exeter posts to start at end of Feb
•Kick-off meeting at Reading University, 8th Feb
• Cross representation from DIAMET, DEMON and the SMT
Storm Risk Mitigation Programme
In addition to TEMPEST, an Impacts and a NWP project were also funded by the
NERC Storm Risk Mitigation programme
NWP - DIAMET (PI: Geraint Vaughan, Manchester)
Manchester, Leeds, Reading, East Anglia, Met Office
1. The generation of mesoscale PV anomalies
2. Physical processes and improving model parameterisations
3. Predictability
Impacts - DEMON (PI: Paul Bates, Bristol)
Bristol, Reading, Kings College
1. Downscaling and uncertainty propagation
2. Data assimilation and remote sensing
3. Extreme storm surge and fluvial modelling
4. Hydraulic modelling
Storm Risk Mitigation Science Management Team (CEH and BGS)
Annual meetings, programme communication and management, data management etc...
Project Studentships
Statistical Estimation and Understanding of Trends in Extreme Extratropical
Cyclones: Phil Sansom (R. Vitolo, D.B. Stephenson - University of Exeter, R.E.
McDonald - Met Office)
Understanding trends in extra-tropical cyclones from:
• Reanalyses (e.g. NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-interim)
• Climate models (e.g. CMIP5 and HadCM3 perturbed physics ensemble)
• Time trends analysed using Poisson regression and extreme value models
Evaluating latent heat release in extratropical cyclones from high-resolution
climate models, remote sensing and global reanalyses: Matt Hawcroft (L.
Shaffrey, K. Hodges, H. Dacre - University of Reading)
Evaluate latent heat release in high-resolution climate models against a range of
remote sensing data and global reanalyses. Storm compositing will be applied to:
• HiGEM climate model output
• ERA-Interim global reanalysis data
• Remote sensing data (ISCCP: International Satellite Cloud Climatology
Project and TRMM: Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, which
measures rainfall up to latitudes of 50N).
TEMPEST Summary and Key Outcomes
•First systematic assessment of how intense extratropical cyclones are
predicted to change in the CMIP5 climate models
•An integrated set of sensitivity experiments with the Met Office Unified Model,
which will lead to improved understanding of the spread in climate model
projections
•Analysis of the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones in
very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments capable of
capturing mesoscale structures
•Guidance and advice for the climate impacts assessment community and
policy-makers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions
•Developing an integrated research community and wider impacts
Morning discussion
Points for discussion:
WP1 Implementation of feature tracking across CMIP5
WP2 Priorities: 1. SST 2. Arctic sea ice?
WP3 Practicalities (where will data be stored and/or analysed?)
Afternoon discussion
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF,
Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
SRM Programme Governance
Programme Executive Board (PEB)
The Storm Risk Mitigation Programme will be managed by NERC Swindon
Office in conjunction with the Changing Water Cycle Programme.
Programme Advisory Group (PAG)
A Programme Advisory Group (PAG) will advise the PEB on the delivery of the
Storm Risk Mitigation Programme. (Dennis Peach, Dave Burridge, Sean
Longfield, Ian Townend)
Science Management Team (SMT)
The SMT will be responsible for the day-to-day management and coordination
of the SRM and CWC programmes. (Graham Leeks, Daren Gooddy, Lucy Bell,
Ann Stokes)
SRM Programme Communication
Programme Website
www.stormrm.info
Annual SRM programme
meetings
First meeting - October 2011
Later meetings jointly with
CWC?
Researcher only meetings
SRM mailing lists are also
being set up
SRM Programme Integration
Small amount of funding available to integrate SRM activities
Case Studies and PV Tracers in a climate model?
• Extratropical cyclone case studies
• Potential Vorticity diabatic tracer diagnostics
Proposed work to link:
• DIAMET, TEMPEST and DEMON with cyclone case studies
• DIAMET and TEMPEST with PV diabatic tracer diagnostics
Trough structure
Vertical section
40km
12km
•Note the sharpness and depth of the tropopause fold in the LAM
•PV source/sink analysis will indicate that these features are a result of diabatic
modification
18 of Jeffrey Chagnon
Courtesy
Diabatic processes affecting fold/trough structure
Nonconservative PV (Total – Adv only)
LW
• Tripole structure along fold sharpens gradient
• Negative anomaly at tropopause level ahead of the trough due
mainly to two processes:
• LW cooling
• Convective heating
Courtesy of Jeffrey Chagnon
Trough structure
Vertical section
40km
12km
•What would these plots look like in a climate model?
20 of Jeffrey Chagnon
Courtesy
Suggested work plan
1. Compare PV tracer diagnostics in simulations of cyclone case studies using
NWP to climate resolutions
• Run cyclone case studies with the HiGEM climate model with the PV
diabatic tracer diagnostic (HiGEM ~100km resolution)
• Compare with case studies being run in DIAMET (DIAMET cases, TNAWDEX, 20th Oct 2008, 20th July 2007?)
• Lots of observations for the DIAMET case studies to evaluate models
• Output could be utilised by DEMON
2. Develop extratropical cyclone composites of PV tracer structure from the
HiGEM climate model
• Carry through the understanding gained from the case studies to multidecadal integrations of HiGEM
• Composite PV tracer structure for ‘intense’ storm
• What is an ‘intense’ storm – opportunity for dialogue with DEMON
Afternoon discussion
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF,
Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
TEMPEST Project Communication
Project Website
tempest.nerc.ac.uk
Six monthly project meetings
Alternating locations (Reading, Exeter, Oxford)
Researcher visits to other institutions
TEMPEST mailing list (met-tempest@lists.reading.ac.uk)
TEMPEST links
Related Activities
•Transpose AMIP – running CMIP5 climate models in NWP forecast mode
•AXA Research Project : Assessing model uncertainties in climate projections of
severe European windstorms (Peter Knippertz, Leeds)
•AXA Research Project: European windstorms in a Changing Climate (David
Stephenson, Exeter and Ruth McDonald, Met Office)
•EU PREDEX: Predictability of Extreme Events (Renato Vitolo, Exeter)
•Lizzie Froude’s work on error growth in TIGGE forecasts at ESSC, Reading
•PhD projects at Reading (A. Champion, R. Lee, T. Philp, H. De Leeuw) and at
Grantham (E. Thompson)
•CWC projects – PAGODA (P.L. Vidale) and Hydrological Extremes (A. Wade)
• EQUIP project (A. Challinor, Leeds)
TEMPEST links
Wider Impacts
•National (LWEC, JWCRP) and international (CMIP5, AR5) programmes
•Operational centres and model development (Met Office, ECMWF)
•Government departments (DEFRA, DECC) and NGOs (Environment Agency)
•Insurance and reinsurance industries (Willis Research Network)
Afternoon discussion
Briefly outline:
SRM programme management and governance
SRM programme communication and integration
Collaboration outside of Storm Risk (e.g. CWC, AXA projects…)
Points for discussion:
Internal communication – mailing list and project website, is this enough?
Collaboration a) within SRM and b) outside of SRM
Interaction with stakeholders (DECC, DEFRA, EA, Met Office, ECMWF,
Insurance industry, General public)
Next meeting
WP1 Assessing Changes in Storms
Q1. How will climate change affect the generation and evolution of extratropical cyclones? How large are these effects compared to natural
variability?
Red: changes
in intense
events
Blue: changes
in total events
Changes in extratropical extremes of daily MSLP in the SRESA1B CMIP3 scenarios (Lambert and Fyfe, 2006)
Previous analyses have only been performed on a subset of climate models,
using different methodologies and sometimes using only daily output.
WP1 Assessing Changes in Storms
WP1 Providing the first systematic assessment of climate model predictions of
intense extratropical cyclones from the CMIP5 models
Opportunity: Six-hourly model output will be archived as part of CMIP5 – apply
objective feature tracking algorithm to the CMIP5 models
Winter 1979-1980 tracks from a
regional climate model
ERA-40 – DJF Track
density
ERA-40
WP2 Quantifying Key Processes
Q2. Which physical processes are most important, and which predicted
changes are most robust?
The spread in CMIP3
projections for North
Atlantic and European
climate is large
Ensemble mean surface temperature differences for 2080-2099
minus 1980-1999 in the AR4 models
•Increase in the upper tropospheric temperature contrast
•Decreased lower tropospheric temperature contrast due to Arctic warming
•Changes in North Atlantic SSTs associated with the slowdown of the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation
•Stationary wave changes associated with changes in tropical precipitation
•The land-sea contrast in surface warming
•Increased moisture content in a warmer climate
WP2 Quantifying Key Processes
WP2 Quantifying the key processes driving changes in intense extratropical
cyclones
Opportunity: Perform an integrated series of sensitivity experiments with
the Unified Model to develop a deeper understanding of how these
processes give rise to the large spread in the CMIP3 climate model
projections
Zonal mean sensitivity experiments: Upper tropospheric and lower
tropospheric temperature contrast
North Atlantic and European sensitivity experiments: Arctic ice extent,
Atlantic SST, Land-sea contrast, Stationary waves from changes in tropical
precipitation
WP3 Impact of Resolution
Q3. How important are the features and processes that climate models poorly
represent due to their limited resolution?
WP3 Determining how increased resolution may improve climate predictions of
extra-tropical cyclones
Opportunity: ECMWF IFS climate runs at T159 (125km), T511 (40km), T1279
(20km) and T2047 (10km) resolution with present day and future climate forcings
Propogation
HiGEM – DJF
925hPa wind
and mslp
composites
ERA-40 – DJF
925hPa wind
and mslp
composites
ERA-40
WP4 Integration and Pull-through
Links to the Storm Risk NWP deliverable
Scope to use results from DIAMET to investigate storm processes in extratropical
cyclones in climate models:
•Run NWP forecasts with the TEMPEST models for the DIAMET case studies
•PV diagnostics, diabatic processes and storm structure
•Analysis of systematic error growth in ECMWF forecasts (Thomas Jung)
•Comparison of tracking methodologies
•Remote sensing? (Latent heat release studentship at Reading)
Links to the Storm Risk Impacts deliverable
•What output from climate models are most robust?
•What constitutes an ‘intense’ storm (e.g. redo tracking for slow-moving storms
that produce intense rainfall in one location)?
WP4 Integration and Pull-through
Wider Impacts
•National (LWEC, JWCRP) and international (CMIP5, AR5) programmes
•Operational centres and model development (Met Office, ECMWF)
•Government departments (DEFRA, DECC) and NGOs (Environment Agency)
•Insurance and reinsurance industries (Willis Research Network)
Related Activities
•Transpose AMIP – running CMIP5 climate models in NWP forecast mode
•AXA Research Project : Assessing model uncertainties in climate projections of
severe European windstorms (Peter Knippertz, Leeds)
•AXA Research Project: European windstorms in a Changing Climate (David
Stephenson, Exeter and Ruth McDonald, Met Office)
•EU PREDEX: Predictability of Extreme Events (Renato Vitolo, Exeter)
•Lizzie Froude’s work on error growth in TIGGE forecasts at ESSC, Reading
•PhD projects at Reading (A. Champion, R. Lee, T. Philp, H. De Leeuw) and at
Grantham (E. Thompson)
TEMPEST Summary and Key Outcomes
•First systematic assessment of how intense extratropical cyclones are
predicted to change in the CMIP5 climate models
•An integrated set of sensitivity experiments with the Met Office Unified Model,
which will lead to improved understanding of the spread in climate model
projections
•Analysis of the impact of climate change on intense extratropical cyclones in
very high-resolution global atmospheric model experiments capable of
capturing mesoscale structures
•Guidance and advice for the climate impacts assessment community and
policy-makers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions
•Developing an integrated research community and wider impacts
Project Timeframe
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
2012
Q3
WP1.1 Assessing track statistics from CMIP5
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2013
Q2
Q3
ms
WP1.2 Assessing composite structures from CMIP5
WP1.3 Natural variability of ETC activity from
historical datasets
WP2.1 Sensitivity of N Atl to upper tropospheric
temp contrast
ms
ms
ms
WP2.2 Quantify regional processes driving
changes in N Atl storm track
WP2.3 Synthesis of the sensitivity experiment
results
ms
ms
WP3.1 Evaluating extra-tropical cyclone statistics
in the ECMWF model
ms
WP3.2 Assess the ETC climate change response in
the ECMWF model
ms
WP3.3 Assessing the upscale response of resolving
mesoscale features
WP4.1 Developing an integrated research
community
WP4.2 Links to the Numerical Weather Prediction
Deliverable
ms
WP4.3 Links to the Impacts Deliverable
ms
ms
ms
WP4.4 Pull-through to the operational centres
ms
ms
WP4.5 Outreach to external stakeholders
ms
ms
Project communication and co-ordination
Project Meetings
Final workshop
NERC OPM returns
Poleward shift of the jet
U850; AR4 models 2080-99 (A2) – 1980-99 (20th Century runs); Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007
Differences in the North Atlantic
Laine et al 2009
There are some very different responses in the North Atlantic
These could be due to different local SST changes