The New Forgotten Half: Those Who
Pursue College But Never Earn a
Degree
Friday, May 1, 2015
@aypf_tweets
Reducing
Inequality:
A Priority for
Research and
Action
ADAM GAMORAN
William T. Grant Foundation
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Founded in 1936
Committed to
understanding
human behavior
through research.
The most pressing
challenges
confronting young
people change
over time.
Inequality in the Headlines
Inequality in the Headlines
Inequality is the Problem
1. Levels of inequality are exceptionally high
2. High inequality causes economic and social
harm
3. Social policies can combat inequality
4. We need research to identify effective
policies, programs, and practices
Inequality in the Headlines
“Research may be able to provide evidence on
which public policies are most helpful in building
an economy in which people are poised to get
ahead. Conversely, it would also be beneficial to
understand whether any policies may hold people
back or discourage upward mobility.”
Research on Reducing Inequality
Immigrant children & families
Mental health & mental
health services
Research on Reducing Inequality
The justice system
Postsecondary education &
workforce development
Understanding the New
College-for-All Reality and
Ways More Youth Can
Benefit
James E. Rosenbaum,
Kelly Iwana-Becker, Caitlin Ahearn
Northwestern University
05/01/215
10
The Original Forgotten Half (1988)
1. Focused on increasing access to productive adult roles
a) Decent earnings and good careers
b) ½ of US youth were missing out
2. Called for new transition mechanisms to provide
opportunities to enter the labor market
11
Updating The Forgotten Half
Research Question: How does education help today’s
youth transition to productive adult roles?
Data: Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS-2012)
High School sophomores 2002 through 2012
12
The New College-for-All Reality
• 86% of on-time high school graduates attend college
• We should be focusing on college completion, not college
enrollment
• Community college students face new obstacles
• 6 year average Bachelor’s Degree
• They also have new opportunities
• Sub-BA credentials have grown faster than bachelor’s degrees
13
14
Source: NCES Table 318.40, 2013 Tables and Figures
Today’s Post-Secondary Education Attainment
All
Low Test
Test Score
Middle Test
High Test
Low SES
SES
Middle SES
High SES
HS Diploma (On Time, No GED)
8,512
2,164
2,909
3,402
2,233
2,585
3,354
Ever Attend College: 2004-2012
86%
73%
87%
95%
75%
86%
95%
2 year
37%
61%
42%
19%
51%
41%
23%
4 Year
59%
30%
56%
80%
42%
55%
75%
Some College
46%
51%
42%
44%
49%
47%
41%
Certificate
17%
22%
17%
9%
21%
17%
11%
Associate's Degree
16%
15%
18%
16%
16%
16%
15%
Bachelor's Degree Plus
20%
11%
24%
31%
14%
19%
33%
Some College
22%
45%
26%
15%
36%
26%
15%
Certificate
5%
12%
5%
4%
7%
6%
4%
Associate's Degree
5%
9%
7%
3%
8%
6%
4%
Bachelor's Degree Plus
67%
34%
61%
78%
49%
61%
76%
First College Level
Started at 2 Year College
Started at 4 Year College
Source: ELS (2002-2012); Sample: On-time high school graduates, completed post-secondary education by June of 2012
Source: ELS (2002-2012); Sample: On-time high school graduates, completed post-secondary education by June of 2012
15
Employment and Earnings Outcomes Regressions
Logistic Regression of
Linear Regression on Log
2
Employment Status 2012 Earnings 2011
SES 2002
1.14
(1.80)
0.05** (2.77)
10th Grade Test Score
1.02*** (4.07)
0.01*** (4.83)
Graduate Degree1
4.96*** (6.04)
0.46*** (8.58)
Bachelor's Degree
3.32*** (8.19)
0.34*** (8.83)
Associate's Degree
2.07*** (3.89)
0.22*** (4.37)
Certificate
1.53** (2.84)
0.13** (2.74)
Some College
1.17
-0.03
(1.36)
(-0.73)
Hours Worked Per Week in 2011 -
0.02*** (23.92)
Weeks Employed in 2011
-
0.03*** (29.97)
Female
0.37*** (-10.91)
-0.16***(-7.52)
Black
1.11
(0.71)
-0.12** (-3.23)
Hispanic
0.82
(-1.63)
0.02
(0.50)
Other Race
0.76*
(-2.01)
0.06
(1.84)
Constant
-
7.49***(86.94)
N
7596
5109
Source: ELS (2002-2012); Sample: On-time high school graduates; completed post-secondary education by the end of 2011
(employment) or the end of 2010 (earnings)
T-statistics in parentheses; *significant at .05;**significant at .01; ***significant at .001
1On-time high school graduates are the comparison for credential coefficients
2Employed (full time or part time) versus unemployed
16
Non-Monetary Outcomes Regressions (n=10582)
Columns correspond to educational levels, and rows correspond to employment outcomes. The entries correspond to the multivariate
regression coefficient predicting the outcome from the educational level.
Poisson Regression
Some College
Job Relates to Career
Unrelated
Preparation
Part of Career
1.11 (1.00, 1.22)*
1.15 (1.02, 1.29)*
1.07 (0.97, 1.18)
Benefits Offered
Health Benefits
Retirement Benefits
Vacation Benefits
Certificate
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
0.64 (0.54, 0.77)****
1.45 (1.27, 1.65)****
1.49 (1.30, 1.70)****
0.93 (0.81, 1.08)
1.17 (1.00, 1.37)*
1.40 (1.26, 1.57)****
0.59 (0.51, 0.67)****
1.27 (1.10, 1.45)***
1.64 (1.46, 1.84)****
1.24 (1.17, 1.31)****
1.24 (1.16, 1.32)****
1.20 (1.12, 1.29)****
1.22 (1.14, 1.30)****
1.24 (1.15, 1.35)****
1.18 (1.09, 1.26)****
1.36 (1.27, 1.46)****
1.44 (1.33, 1.56)****
1.35(1.25, 1.45)****
1.42 (1.34, 1.51)****
1.49 (1.39, 1.59)****
1.36 (1.26, 1.46)****
Job Conditions
Day Shift
Irregular Hours
Work Hard Physically
Work Desk Job
Supervise Managers
Supervise Others
Number Times Fired
1.01 (0.96, 1.08)
1.03 (0.90, 1.18)
0.86 (0.75, 0.98)*
1.70 (1.50, 1.93)****
0.92 (0.75, 1.14)
1.15 (1.04, 1.26)**
0.77 (0.67, 0.88)****
0.97 (0.89, 1.05)
1.16 (0.99, 1.36)
0.71 (0.56, 0.90)**
1.50 (1.26, 1.79)****
0.97 (0.75, 1.26)
0.99 (0.86, 1.14)
0.76 (0.62, 0.93)****
1.10 (1.03, 1.18)**
0.90 (0.76, 1.07)
0.44 (0.33, 0.57)****
1.90 (1.62, 2.22)****
1.20 (0.91, 1.59)
1.09 (0.94, 1.25)
0.61 (0.47, 0.78)****
1.26 (1.18, 1.34)****
0.82 (0.70, 0.95)**
0.26 (0.21, 0.34)****
2.51 (2.21, 2.85)****
1.07 (0.87, 1.32)
1.03 (0.93, 1.15)
0.47 (0.39, 0.58)****
Other (OLS Regression)
Perceived Status (0–10)
Job Satisfaction
Job Autonomy
Job Repetitive
0.27 (0.16, 0.39)****
0.01 (-0.00, 0.03)
0.01 (-0.01, 0.04)
-0.01 (-0.03, 0.01)
0.43 (0.28, 0.58)****
0.05 (0.03, 0.06)****
0.07 (0.04, 0.09)****
-0.03 (-0.06, -0.01)**
0.52 (0.38, 0.66)****
0.03 (0.01, 0.04)**
0.04 (0.01, 0.08)**
-0.06 (-0.08, -0.04)****
1.08 (0.97, 1.20)****
0.02 (0.01, 0.04)**
0.06 (0.04, 0.08)****
-0.14 (-0.16,-0.12)****
Source: Adolescent Health, 1995-2008
Sample: Restricted to high school graduates who are employed full time in one job in 2008
Control variables: demographics (race/ethnicity (black, Latino, Asian), gender); educational factors (grade average, test score, grades not
reported by respondent); acculturation (nativity, parent nativity, speak English versus another language at home); and parent ’s
socioeconomic status (parent’s self-reported educational level, household income, and whether they have enough money to pay bills.)
Confidence interval in parentheses
17
The New Forgotten Half
• Certificates, associate’s degrees, and bachelor’s degrees
all confer significant earnings and employment payoff,
but attending college attaining no credentials does not
• Students with “Some College but no degree” appear to
fare no better in the young adult labor market than high
school graduates
18
Characteristics of Individuals with Different Levels of Highest
Educational Attainment
Finding: Those With “Some College” are similar to certificate and associate’s degree graduates
Some
College
Certificate3
Associate's
Degree
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate
Degree
36%
34%
21%***
6%***
2%***
71%
72%
78%**
84%***
88%***
13%
12%
9%
6%***
4%***
Skip 3 or More Times 10th grade
12%
11%
11%
5%***
5%***
Low Sophomore Test Third
34%
45%***
29%
9%***
5%***
Low SES Third 2002
36%
40%*
33%
17%***
11%***
BA Plans in 12th Grade
62%
50%***
61%
93%***
98%***
Enroll in College in First Term After High
66%
School
61%**
73%***
92%***
94%***
Start at a 4 Year College
26%***
33%***
84%***
93%***
Low High School GPA Third, Honors
Weighted
Usually had Homework Done 10th
Grade
Get in Trouble 3 or More Times 10th
Grade
42%
Source: ELS (2002-2012); Sample: On-time high school graduates, completed post-secondary education by June of 2012 ; *significant at .05;**significant at
.01; ***significant at .001 using chi-squared tests of significance
19
Opportunities for College-Level Policies
1. Work with employers to understand value of
sub-BA credentials and mid-skill jobs
2. Inform students about value of sub-BA
credentials
3. Create clear program pathways with structured
course sequences
4. Create incremental success pathways that
allow students to combine credentials
20
Opportunities for National and State-Level Policies
1. Align standards and credits between
educational institutions
2. Develop more effective articulation agreements
between community colleges and 4 year
colleges
3. Provide funds to support advising and job
placement
4. Allocate funds to encourage sub-BA
occupational programs
21
Final Thoughts
• “College” now means much more than a
bachelor’s degree
• Specifically, community colleges offer valuable subBA credentials
• We must expand our conception of “success”
beyond the BA and beyond earnings
• Educational institutions, employers, and
policy makers can take steps to increase
community college and employment success
22
QUESTIONS?
23
WEST KENTUCKY
COMMUNITY AND
TECHNICAL COLLEGE
PADUCAH, KY
ABOUT WKCTC
•
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•
•
•
•
•
Fall enrollment: 6,534 students
62% of first-time students are Pell Eligible
65% attend part-time
20% minority
58% age 24 and under
Fall-to-fall retention* (Full-Time): 66%
Fall-to-fall retention* (Part-Time): 44%
*IPEDS
# ASSOCIATE DEGREES (IPEDS)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ReportReportReportReportReportReportReportReportReport
WK
Comparison Group
HEALTH SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY
ASSOCIATE IN APPLIED SCIENCE
General Education
25-29 Hours
Math, English, Biology (Human Anatomy & Physiology), Psychology,
Social/Behavioral Science, Heritage/Humanities/Oral Communications
35-39 Hours
Technical Core
Students may be able to earn certificates in Nursing Assistant, Advanced
Nursing Assistant, Phlebotomy for the Healthcare Worker,
Pharmacy Technician I, Medical Coding, or Medical Office Receptionist