Challenges on New Technologies
For Sustainable Energy System
Tech. Develop, Tech. Transfer and the CTI
Jūrmala (Latvia)
11-14 May, 2005
1
Morihiro KURUSHIMA
Professor
Toyo University / NEDO,JAPAN
Energy in Japan in Comparison to the World
Characteristics
Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy
in Major Countries (2000)
(％)
100
Fragile Energy Supply Structure
80
75.3
70.5
60
- Scarce domestic energy resources
- Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared
to other major countries
- High dependency on oil from the Middle East
44.6
36.5
40
20
19.7
0
Japan
U.S.A.
Fance
Germany
England
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and
Dependency on Oil in the World (2000-2001)
Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000)
（％）
Primary energy supply
(oil conversion: mtoe )
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear power
Hydropower
Recyclable energy, etc.
Japan
U.S.A.
525
18
51
12
16
1.4
2
2300
24
39
24
9
0.9
4
France Germany
257
6
34
14
42
2.2
2
340
24
39
21
13
0.6
3
UK
233
16
36
38
10
0.2
2
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
86%
Dependency on the
Middle East
Dependency on oil
48%
40%
39%
37% 37%
34%
26%
13%
5%
Japan
U.S.A.
France
Germany
England
Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”
Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)
Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators
Supply Side
New Energy
Waste
1,250,000 kl
(1,110MW)
Biomass
48,000 kl
(71MW)
FY2010
Indicators
1,180,000 kl
(4,820 MW)
1,340,000 kl
(3,000 MW)
5,520,000 kl
(4,170 MW)
340,000 kl
(330 MW)
Solar
820,000 kl
4,390,000 kl
Waste
45,000 kl
140,000 kl
Biomass
ー
670,000 kl
Electric Power
FY2001
Thermal Energy Utilization
Renewable Energy
Photovoltaic
Wind
110,000 kl
(452MW)
127,000 kl
(312MW)
Unused energy
44,000 kl
(incl. Snow-ice)
Black liquor and scrap
4,460,000 kl
wood, etc.
Total
(Share of total primary energy
4
supply)
6,900,000 kl
(1.2%)
FY2001
FY2010
Indicators
Total New Energy
7 million kl
19 million kl
Hydropower
21 million kl
20 million kl
Geothermal
1 million kl
1 million kl
Grand Total
29 million kl
(4.9%)
40 million kl
(approx. 7%)
(Share of total primary energy
supply)
580,000 kl
Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI
4,940,000 kl
19,100,000 kl
(approx. 3%)
Cost Competitiveness of NRE
Power generation cost of new energy
Photovoltaic power
Type
Residential
Power
generation
cost
46~66
(Unit: JPY/kWh)
Wind power
Waste power
SmallSmallNonLargeand
Largeand
residential scale medium- scale mediumscale
scale
73
9~14 18~24 9~11 11~12
Biomass
power
Small- and
mediumscale
hydropower
7~21
14
Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee
on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others
(Unit: JPY/kWh)
Power generation cost by power source
5
Type
Nuclear power
LNG-fired
Coal-fired
Oil-fired
Power generation
cost
5.9
6.4
6.5
10.2
Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory
Committee for Energy (December 1999)
PV Power Generation Capacity in Japan
Cost of residential PV system
(Unit: 1,000JPY)
Applications of PV pow er
generation (Unit: MW)
4000
\ 2 6 0 / kWh
700
637
Power generation
cost per 1kWh
600
Installation cost
per 1kW
500
453
400
2000
\ 1 4 0 / kWh
3700
330
\ 1 2 0 / kWh
300
\ 8 2 / kWh
2000
1700
\ 7 2 / kWh \ 7 1 / kWh
1200
24
31
43
209
1040
60
133
1020
\ 6 5 / kWh
\ 5 8 / kWh
930
91
200
\ 5 2 / kWh \ 4 9 / kWh
100
840
750
710
0
0
1993
1994
1995
Trial period
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Diffusion project
2001
2002
Creation of Initial Demand
Market
independence
Diffusion Difficulty Level
Creation of
initial demand
Technical
development
Cannot be sold without support
▪ High cost
▪ Competition with
existing products
▪ Construction of a total
energy system
▪ A lack of social awareness
Synergistic
effect of mass
production
and cost
reduction
This
period
この時期が重要
is important.
Development of
new products
6
：Market scale
Period of
market creation
Period of independence and expansion in the market
Period of market maturity
Japan’s Position in Steel Industry
Comparison of Unit Energy Consumption in Integrated Steelworks
(2003, indexes with Japan set at 100)
150
150
140
130
120
120
110
110
100
105
100
90
JAPAN
KOREA
EU
USA
CHINA
Source: Based on dialogue among JISF, Korea Iron and Steel Association, China Iron and Steel Association etc.
The reason Why ?
CO2 Emissions in the world
12000
Future global CO2 emissions
Global CO2 emissions in 1999
Emissions (Million t-C)
10000
USA
24%
8000
6000
Non-annex
I
Non-annex
I
China
13%
4000
2000
Others
44%
Annex I
Annex I
0
2010
2020
Russia
6%
Germany
India Japan
4% 4% 5%
PV Power Supply Project in Mongolia
with NEDO-Japan & Sharp Co.
PV: 200kW
Power Distribution:
Hospital / Communication Center:24hrs/day
128 Households:16 hrs/day
Village office : 10kW
Hospital : 40kW
School : 40kW
Communication center : 10kW
Power plant : 100kW
1 Mongolia
Noyon Soum,
9
PV Power Supply Project with Micro-hidro
in Cambodia
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Micro-hydro power generator
Batteries
Micro-hydro power
generator
Electricity
Micro-hydro: 41.2kW
PV1: 30kW
PV2-61: 7.5kW
21
PV panels
Power distribution:
10
200 households, 6 hrs/day
NEDO’s F/S on CDM/JI Projects
in 47 Countries (FY1998-2004)
Mongolia 1
Latin America 13
Tonga 1
Eastern Europe 55
(21%)
South West Asia 14
Central Asia
17
Middle East
Africa 23
(9%)
Russia 30
(12%)
260 F/S
47 Countries
China 47
(18%)
ASEAN 59
(23%)
1
11
NEDO’S JI Activity
in Kazakhstan
Fuel flow
Heat
Power
Fuel
（Natural
Gas）
Hot water
boilers
Power
generation
boilers
Thermal
Steam
turbines
Power
Current condition
Model
Project
Gas
turbine
Heat Recovery Steam
Generation1System
2
2
.
Annual CO2 emissions in baseline case 192,000 t-CO2 /y
Annual CO2 emissions in project case 130,000 t-CO2 /y
Annual Emissions Reduction
1
62,000 t-CO2/y
12
Projects
With Industries
In Mexico and
Thailand
Mitsubishi
Electric Corp.
Mexico
STE
Export (200 vehicles)
Monitoring, Construct. etc.
Japan AMA
Traffic Improvement
1
Project in Bangkok
13
Concept of Sustainable Energy System with
Geological Sequestration
Energy
Plant
CO2
Separation
（Pipeline Transportation ）
Tank
Liquefaction
Solidification
Bio Factory
（Heat Transportation ）
Biomass
Methane
Fermentation
Fuel Cell
Tank
Geological
Segregation
1
14
CO2 Sequestration Projects in Japan
From 2000
(RITE)
Nagaoka-shi,
Niigata Prefecture
Sequestration in
an Aquifer
From 1997
(NEDO, RITE)
Joint project by Japan,
US, Canada and Norway
From 2002
(KANSO, J-COAL)
Sequestration in
a coal bed
Ocean Sequestration
CH4
Contribution to
IPCC Special
Report
CO2
CH 4
CH4
CO 2
1
Coal bed
CO2 fixation
15
Substitution
Concept of Sustainable Bio-Factory with
Geological Sequestration
1
16
Outline of the CTI
Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany,
Norway, UK, USA, Japan and Finland
Chair : Mr.Sakamoto/METI,JAPAN
Vice Chair : Mr.Holts/US.DOE,
Mr.Carrington/UK.DTI
P.Manager : Prof.Kurushima
• Seminars and Symposia
Technology Needs Assessments
Training Courses
Information Dissemination
Working with UNFCCC/EGTT, UNIDO, UNDP etc.
1
17
“CTI/Industry Joint Seminar
on Technology Diffusion” Series
Warsaw
(11-12 May 2000)
Bratislava
(14-16 July
1999)
Mexico City
(18-19 Feb. 2004)
San Salvador
(27-28 Mar. 2000)
Madrid
(18-19 Sep. 1999)
Beiging
Vienna
(28-29 Oct. 2004)
Vienna
(28-29 Oct. 2003)
Beiging
( 24-25 Feb.
2005 )
( 27-28 Sep. 2002 )
(19-20 May 1998)
New Delhi
(11-12 March 2004)
Victoria Falls
(17-19 Mar. 1999)
1
Cebu
(14-15 Jan. 2000)
Jakarta
(4-5 Feb. 2004)
18
“World Tech. Bank for Energy & Environment”
CTI
Gov.
/Gov.Org.
Academia/
Univ.
Bank
Coordination
Basic Survey
FS/Project
Formation
Industry
1
Project
Implementation
19
With Gov, International Org, Bank and Industry
for Energy & Environment”
CTI
Mauritius
Gov.
NEDO
Japan
Basic Survey
SADAC
NREL
US-DOE
S.African
D. Bank
Preliminary Study
FS/Project
Formation
Project
Implementation
Industry
1
20
PV R&D
Scenario forFuture
2010
For Our
Common
Gov. Initiative with 3Players for 3E
Industry
Energy
Academia
Financial
Environment Economy Sustainable
Society
1
21
3/25/2005 ～9/25/2005
Thank you for your attention.
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