War and Peace
Sources of World War IV
 Ethnopolitical conflicts
 Problems of transition to capitalism
 The North-South gap
 Competition for resources (energy, water, food)
 The ecological crisis
 Terrorism
 Interstate rivalries, economic and political
 The emergence of radical Islamist ideologies
 9/11 as the “tipping point” to World War IV
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The US acts as the hegemonic power
Radical Islam and “rogue states” are in the role of
“the enemy”
Promotion of liberal democracy
“The unipolar moment”
Unilateralism vs. multilateralism
Determination to preserve US hegemony
Rivals: rising centres of global power
EU
 China, India
 Brazil and others
 Russia
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Use of force is becoming more frequent and larger
in scale: invasions, terrorist attacks
The new concept of “preventive war”
Militarization of outer space
Dismantling of arms control, proliferation of nukes
The danger that nuclear weapons may be used is
considered higher than in the Cold War
New hi-tech weapons
The war in people’s minds: ideas and beliefs,
religion
A new culture of war?
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"This fourth world war, I think, will last considerably longer
than either World Wars I or II did for us. Hopefully not the
full four-plus decades of the Cold War.“ – James Woolsey,
former Director of CIA*
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*http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/04/03/sprj.irq.woolsey.world.war
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Global conflict map
http://maps.maplecroft.com/loadma
p?template=min&issueID=2&close
=y
THE WORLD’S MILITARY FORCES
20,000 nuclear weapons
120,000 battle tanks
35,000 combat aircraft
1,500 major warships
Over 23 million under arms (regular and irregular
armies)
including 0.5 million women
and 0.2 million children under 15
The World’s Nuclear Weapons, 2004 (data from Nuclear
Threat Initiative)
USA
10,455
RF
8,400
China
400
France
350
Israel***
250
UK
200
India***
65
Pakistan***
40
North Korea*** 8
Total
*** Estimates
20,168
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“The Long War”
Guardian | America's Long War
US Nuclear Primacy
Foreign Affairs - The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy
- Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
The patterns of war, early 21st century:
Mostly in the Global South even though most military preparations are in the
North
Mostly within states, not between states
Casualties overwhelmingly civilian
Terrorism a widely used weapon
The threat of WMD use
The potential for escalation and spread
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The era of global warfare has not ended:
it has merely entered its next stage
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The dialectics of integration and conflict in world politics
Conflict and integration are inseparable from each other
Integration has generated new conflicts
They are undermining integration
Will conflicts converge to produce large-scale warfare on
global scale?
At what level of conflict will the world achieve more viable
and humane forms of integration?
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Do we have alternatives to escalation?
See Kofi Annan’s report “In Larger Freedom”:
Report - Table of Contents
And UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s
report “A More Secure World: Our Shared
Responsibility” :
Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel
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A new global security consensus is needed
The UN was created in 1945 as a collective
security organization –
To prevent states from waging aggressive wars on
other states
It was understood that peace and security would
require:
facilitating socioeconomic development and
 protection of human rights
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• SECURITY
• DEVELOPMENT
• HUMAN RIGHTS
–are inseparable
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“Sixty years later, we know all too well that the
biggest security threats we face now, and in the
decades ahead, go far beyond States waging
aggressive war…
…The threats are from non-state actors as well as
States, and to human security as well as State
security”.
From “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility”
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Examples of mutual insecurity
Northern troubles – southern consequences
 World
Bank estimates:
 the
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attacks of 9/11 increased the number of
world poor by 10 million
 total cost to the world economy – $80 bln.
Southern troubles – northern consequences
 9/11
 SARS
 H5N1
(Bird Flu)
“Six clusters of threats”
 Socioeconomic threats, including
 poverty
 infectious disease
 environmental degradation
 Inter-state conflict
 Internal conflict, including
 Civil war
 Genocide
 Other large-scale atrocities
 Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass
destruction
 nuclear
 radiological
 chemical
 biological
 Terrorism
 Transnational organized crime
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The “front line actors” to assure security –
Individual sovereign states
But they must act collectively – individually, they
cannot do the job
The threats are transnational
 No state is invulnerable
 And an individual state may not be “able, or willing,
to meet its responsibility to protect its own peoples
and not to harm its neighbours”
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“What is needed today is nothing less than a new
consensus between alliances that are frayed,
between wealthy nations and poor, and among
people mired in mistrust across an apparently
widening cultural abyss. The essence of that
consensus is simple: we all share responsibility for
each other’s security. And the test of that
consensus will be action.”
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The primary challenge PREVENTION
How to prevent security threats from rising:
DEVELOPMENT
If successful Improves living conditions
 Builds state capacities
 Creates an environment which makes war less likely
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But what if prevention fails?
Conditions for legitimate use of force
Article 51 and Chapter VII of the UN Charter
They need no changes, but they must be used
more effectively
Build a consensus on guidelines
5 guidelines:
Seriousness of threat
 Proper purpose
 Last resort
 Proportional means
 Balance of consequences
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Other major issues arising during and after violent
conflict:
Needed capacities for peace enforcement: all
countries must contribute resources
 Peace-keeping
 Peace-building
 Protection of civilians
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A more effective UN
 Revitalize the General Assembly
 Reform and make more effective the Security
Council (decision-making and contributions)
 Give attention, policy guidance and resources to
countries under stress, in conflict, and emerging
from conflict
 Security Council must work more closely with
regional organizations
 Institutions to address social and economic threats
to international security
 Create a more potent international body for the
protection of human rights