AMERICAN GOVERNMENT, 10th edition
by Theodore J. Lowi, Benjamin Ginsberg, and
Kenneth A. Shepsle
Chapter 9: Public Opinion
Debate Redux
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l63SRpGXBHE&feature=related
America’s Tyrannical Majority
Observing America in the 1830s, Alexis de Tocqueville
warned of the potential for the “tyranny of the majority.”
“I know of no country in which there is so little
independence of mind and real freedom of discussion
as in America … In America the majority raises
formidable barriers around the liberty of opinion; within
these barriers an author may write what he pleases,
but woe to him if he goes beyond them.”
—Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America
Characteristics of Public Opinion
Definition
Public opinion is the
values and attitudes
that people have about
issues, events, and
personalities.
Characteristics
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Direction
Intensity
Saliency
Latency
Public opinion has direction.
Whatever the response to a public
opinion poll (yes or no; more or less; 1
or 100) people have opinions about
proper directions and preferred
alternatives.
Liberals are said to be on the “left,” and
conservatives are said to be on the
“right.”
If “direction” measures what
people think, intensity refers to
how deeply individuals hold a
given opinion and how likely they
are to act on it.
Not all opinions are equally felt by
citizens, so not all opinions are
equally consequential for politics.
If direction and intensity characterize individual
opinions, saliency and latency are characteristics of
overall opinion.
Salient opinion is that which enjoys widespread
public attention and is a high priority.
Latent opinion may be widespread but generally
remains in the background unmolded, unmobilized,
and uncrystallized.
As Tocqueville might have predicted, one negative
consequence of the “marketplace of ideas” is that
unpopular ideas might not be given a chance to
compete, regardless of their potential merit.
Should they seem at first glance to be unpopular, such
potentially good ideas are likely to go unexpressed.
Thus, they do not receive the consideration that might
make them seem more appealing.
For this reason, differences in public opinion can be
very valuable.
Differences in Public Opinion
Despite widespread
agreement, fundamental
disagreements
continue, over not only
specific issues but also
how we define our core
areas of consensus.
Political divisions between
“liberals” and conservatives”
reflect relatively consistent
differences among Americans.
Moreover, demographic
differences (between and
among racial and ethnic
groups and between men and
women) persist and define
many of the important political
battles in American politics.
Beyond demographics,
public opinion is also
affected by other agents of
socialization like
education levels and
membership in social
groups.
Differences between
religious groups are one
example.
Agents of socialization
are the social institutions,
including families and
schools, that help shape
individuals’ basic political
beliefs and values.
Shaping Opinion
Political opinions are also shaped
in the “marketplace of ideas” by:
–
–
–
political leaders
private groups
the media
Governments and politicians
seek to monitor and shape public
opinion to build public support for
governmental actions and
policies.
In recent years, politicians have
increasingly used technologies
such as public opinion polls and
media appeals, to shape public
opinion.
Other political actors, such as
outside interest groups and the
mass media, seek to sell their
ideas and influence “tastes” in the
idea marketplace.
Measuring Public Opinion
Public opinion polls, scientific instruments for
measuring public opinion, are now prevalent in
American politics.
Media organizations – newspapers and television –
often have in-house polling operations and report
public opinion data on a regular basis.
How are Polls Conducted?

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=156231&titl
e=team-daily-polls
Pollsters begin by choosing a small
group of respondents to represent the
most important characteristics of an
entire population.
Selecting a representative sample is
key to being able to make
generalizations about a poll’s results.
If done correctly, public opinion polls
are remarkably accurate snapshots of
public sentiment at any given time and
reasonably good predictors of election
outcomes.
Poor construction and mistaken
interpretations of polls can
misrepresent public opinion:
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–
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poor sampling
question wording and ordering
illusion of saliency
illusion of central tendency
The Literary Digest Fiasco 1936
The Literary Digest had predicted the winner in every presidential
election since 1916, and had based its 1936 predictions on the
largest response to any poll in history -- over 10 million
questionnaires were mailed using lists of automobile and
telephone owners -- over 2.3 million people responded.
FDR was just completing his first term – and was facing a tough
challenge from Republican Alf Landon. The Literary Digest
predicted that Landon would beat FDR -- 57 to 43 percent.
At the same time, a young George Gallup sampled only 50,000
people and predicted that Roosevelt would win. Gallup's
prediction was ridiculed as naive. But Roosevelt won with 62%
of the vote. The size of the Digest's error is staggering. How
could they have been so far off?
The Literary Digest had made two fatal mistakes:
Sampling Bias -- Their list of names came from lists of cars and
phone owners – an inherently affluent sample (a much smaller
portion of the population in the thirties than it is today).
Self-Selection Bias -- The Digest had depended on voluntary
response. FDR was the incumbent, and those who were
unhappy with his administration were more likely to respond to
the Digest survey.
Polls and their results
can also influence
public opinion.
Poll results can produce the
bandwagon effect whereby
there is a shift in support to a
candidate or opinion because
the polls portray its popularity.
Push polling is a technique in
which the questions asked in a
poll are designed not to
measure a respondent’s
opinion but to change it.
More than simply
representing (or
misrepresenting)
public opinion,
polling actually
transforms opinion
and has an effect
on its importance
in politics.
Prior to widespread poll use, politicians
used informal methods to measure
public sentiment. They would
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monitor press reports and editorials;
tabulate letters and phone calls from
constituents;
consult “opinion surrogates” like barbers
and cab drivers.
When polling replaced these more informal methods
of measuring public opinion, the new technology
actually transformed the opinion that influenced
politics.
When polls are conducted correctly they are
remarkably accurate. For this reason, politicians and
political observers pay a great deal of attention to
polling.
Public Opinion and Democracy
What is the proper use of polls in American politics?
To retain its democratic characteristics,
American politics must reflect public opinion in
important respects.
But to remain republican, American politics
must avoid constant decision making by
plebiscite.
Although most politicians deny being “poll-driven,”
most politicians at the national level (and all modern
presidents) use polls to make decisions.
There are several
problems associated
with making policy
based on polls.
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The American public
frequently lacks adequate
information on policies.
Public opinion often lacks
coherence and is internally
contradictory.
Public support is volatile
and changes over time.
Public Approval/Disapproval of President Bush's Handling of Iraq
80
70
60
40
30
20
10
8/27/2007
6/27/2007
4/27/2007
2/27/2007
12/27/2006
10/27/2006
8/27/2006
6/27/2006
4/27/2006
2/27/2006
12/27/2005
10/27/2005
8/27/2005
6/27/2005
4/27/2005
2/27/2005
12/27/2004
10/27/2004
8/27/2004
6/27/2004
4/27/2004
2/27/2004
12/27/2003
10/27/2003
8/27/2003
6/27/2003
0
4/27/2003
Percent
50
Date
Approve
Disapprove
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, various dates, 2003-2007.
(http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm) The question asked of respondents was “Do you approve or
disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?”
To what extent should public support for the war
in Iraq influence U.S. foreign policy?
What are the drawbacks of conducting a war
based on polls?
What are the implications for a democracy in
which public opinion is not effective in
determining foreign policy?