Session 4

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Discovery of the greenhouse effect by
Joseph Fourier (1824-1827)
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John Tyndall identifies carbon dioxyde as a driver of the greenhouse effect
(1860-1870). Water vapor is the main gas that controls temperature. First measurements of air quality.

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Law of Arrhenius (1896):
If the quantity of carbonic acid rises following a geometric progression, the resulting rise in temperature will follow an arithmetic progression.
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He establishes that a doubling of CO2 quantity in the atmosphere would lead to a temperature rise comprised between 5 and 7 ° C.
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According to Arrhenius, the doubling of CO2 would take about 3000 years. It will actually take ony about one century.

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Roger Revelle makes the first measurements of CO2 concentration in the 1950s. He shows that climate change is linked to human activity(1956).
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James Hansen shows that climate change is happening faster than expected. His testimony before US Congress marks the entry of climate change into the realm of politics.

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1957: First measurements in Hawai ’ i and Antarctica
1970s: James Hansen starts modelling climate change
Jimmy Carter commissions a report by the American
Academy of Sciences
Reagan, Bush and Clinton don ’ t care, Gore worries but he ’ s only VP.

The establishment of a scientific consensus

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Increasingly present
Especially in policy fields where knowledge is technical
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Are they neutral?
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We assume that they are, but:
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Epistemic communities (Haas & Keohane)
Advocacy coalitions (Sabatier & Jenkins-Smith)

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Is it the same thing?
Science for the sake of it, or science for policy
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Are experts different from scientists?
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Often the same people
Are they neutral?
Do they have to be neutral?

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Created in 1988
Key-role in the policy-making process:
Establish a common scientific basis for the negotiation
An intergovernmental organisation… in which governments play a role

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Established in 1988 jointly by UNEP and WMO
At the request of sceintists themselves, concerned that science was not followed by policy actions.
Open to all member countries of UNEP and WMO
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Main task: assess the risks and impacts of climate change
The IPCC doesn’t conduct research directly, but synthesises the best research on the topic.
And make it accessible to policy-makers.
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Main outcome: the Assessment Reports, issued every 5 or 6 years (4 reports so far)
5th Assessment Report due in 2013.

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The consensus on climate science was the IPCC’s key endeavour
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Process started in the 1980s
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Whistle-blower role
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A key episode: the replacement of Dr Watson

Dr. Robert Watson, the highly respected leader of the Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change, was blackballed in a memo to the White House from the nation's largest oil company. The memo had its effect last Friday, when Dr. Watson lost his bid for re-election after the administration threw its weight behind the ''let's drag our feet'' candidate, Dr. Rajendra
Pachauri of New Delhi, who is known for his virulent anti-American statements.
Why is this happening?
Because the largest polluters know their only hope for escaping restrictions lies in promoting confusion about global warming.
Just as Enron needed auditors who wouldn't blow the whistle when the company lied about the magnitude of its future liabilities, the administration needs scientific reviews that won't sound the alarm on the destruction of the earth's climate balance.
 Al Gore, NY Times, 21 avril 2002.

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U.S. to Back Scientist From India To Replace Global
Warming Expert
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Auto manufacturers and oil companies have long seen Dr. Watson as a foe, and their lobbyists have said that Dr. Pachauri, who has worked with industry in the past, was clearly preferable.
- A. Revkin, NY Times, 3 avril 2002.
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Dr. Pachauri heads the Tata Energy Research Institute in New Delhi;
Tata is one of India's largest industrial groups.
NY Times, 20 avril 2002.

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Mr. Gore's derogatory statements about me reflect deep disappointment at my election as chairman of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with 76 votes for me against 49 for his protégé, Dr. Robert T. Watson.
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R.K. Pachauri, NY Times, May 1st, 2002.

And yet, five years later…

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About 2,500 (unpaid) scientists, appointed by their government: lead authors, contributing authors, reviewers.
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A balance between:
Junior and senior researchers
Men and women
Researchers from developped and developing countries
Key assumption: collective neutrality emerges from the addition of individual subjectivities.

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The IPCC does not carry out any research
The Assessment Reports are just a synthesis of previously published works
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Triple peer-reviewing
Peer-review at the time of publication of original works
Scientific peer-review by experts
Political peer-review by governments
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The reports need to be approved by both all scientists and all governments: they are bpth a scientific and a political document
Reports organised on the basis of scenarios

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The IPCC reports pave the way for policy milestones:
UNFCCC 1992, Kyoto 1997
Interferences from governments
Attacked as a political actor, yet responds as a scientific actor.

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Highly authoritative, due to intensive peer-reviewing
But this authority is currently being questioned: ‘climate gate’, mistake about the Himalaya glaciers, etc.
The IPCC as a political actor
How to address these criticisms?
Can we doubt about climate science?
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Minimal consensus
Are the reports too prudent and conservative?
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Scenarios underestimate reality
Need for revision
Need for a global reform of the IPCC?

Memo by F. Luntz
2003
The scientific debate remains open. Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community.
(…) You need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate…

From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@virginia.edu
Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL
RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA
Date: Mon Feb 21 16:28:32 2005
Cc: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradley@geo.umass.edu>, "Malcolm Hughes"
<mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu>
Mike, Ray and Malcolm, The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam here ! Maybe we can use this to our advantage to get the series updated !...
…The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick. Leave it to you to delete as appropriate !
Cheers
Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station temperature data. Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !

P. Jones:
“I’ve just completed Mike ’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e from
1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith ’s to hide the decline .
”
> Wrongly and over-interpreted by the media and climate sceptics

25 Paul N. Edwards 28 October 2010

Main issues
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Communicate science
Stimulate action
Make climate change taken for granted
Mainstream climate change into politics

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Alarmist
‘ Climate porn ’
Maximising the problem and minimising the solution
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Small actions
Tackling climate change seems easy, cheap and even fun
Economic benefits
Techno-optimism
‘ There ’ s nothing to do ’
‘ We ’ ll be fine anyway ’
> Are these divergent repertoires an asset or a problem?

Problems in communicating climate change
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Uncertainties
Seasonal variations
Complexity
Impact of small actions (free-riding)
Multiplicity of actors
Skepticism
Long-term effects
Ideological views

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Creating bias where there ’ s consensus

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Main arguments
Climate change is not occurring
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The global climate is actually getting colder
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The global climate is getting warmer, but not because of human activities
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The global climate is getting warmer, in part because of human activities, but this will create greater benefits than costs
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The global climate is getting warmer, in part because of human activities, but the impacts are not sufficient to require any policy response

BBC Climate change poll –
February 2010

One French out of three is climate-sceptic

The older you get, the more sceptical you are