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
Investment Competition

MacroEcon Data/ Global Issues

Libya Political Unrest

DATAPALOOZA
Ends the Week
before Finals
$50,000 in cash to
invest
No more than 1/3 of
portfolio in one stock
1st Place = iPad
Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 11:35 AM ET
Industry Summaries

Current/ Projected Populations
 Where’s the demand?

Inflation Rates
 Affect how much money is lent out
 Affects international trade

Unemployment & Income levels
 High employment means more production
 The higher the average income, the more
consumption
Data to Keep an Eye on:
Exchange Rates
Data
Performance
Compared to Expectations
Consumer Confidence
70.4
Above
Existing Home Sales
+12.5%
Above
Durable Goods Orders
2.7%
Below
New Jobless Claims
391,000
Better
New Home Sales
284,000
Below
Real GDP
+2.8%
Below

The World is becoming
more Globalized
 What happens in Greece
affects the US
 What happens in the
Middle East affects Europe

Seriousness of
Political Unrest

Gaddafi’s 41 year rule is
being challenged by Antigovernment forces

Over 1,000 people killed.

Libya on average has
produced 1.6 Million crude
oil barrels/day

Now only producing 400,000

Different from Egypt?
Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 6:24 PM ET
Gaddafi Cornered
What happens now?

Claims they can ramp up
production to meet demands

Much wealthier country, less
risk for political unrest

Announced that they plan to
spend $37 billion on their people
 Unemployed/ poor


BRENT Crude is the European Warehouse
U.S. WTI Crude is the U.S Stockpile

BRENT is generally higher because Europe doesn't have as
much reserves as the U.S. does.

BRENT hit $120 a barrel in the last week, while WTI only hit
like $103

Brent Crude: The global price benchmark
 Record High: July 2008 at $150/ barrel
 Past Thursday: $120/ barrel
 If Brent moves past $130 we should experience demand
elasticity.
Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 8:04 AM ET
Saudi to Hike Oil Production

For every $10 increase in crude oil, GDP
decreases by 0.5%

Oil in Q4 of 2010 was $85 / barrel,
U.S. WTI crude now, it's $97 a barrel

Q4 GDP was revised down Friday to 2.8% from
3.3%

They say oil prices at $105 a barrel would most
likely make U.S. GDP 1.8%

OPEC- 12 countries (includes Libya)
 79% Worlds known reserves
 44% Worlds Oil Production

US Crude Oil Import Quantities
 1st
 2nd
 3rd
Canada
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
2064 Thousand
1223 Thousand
1076 Thousand
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html
Is oil overbought? Or will
the price continue to rise?