Graduate Proposal Written in Partial Fulfillment of RA693: Developing a GIS Strategy
for Residential Burglary Crimes in the Western District of the City of Saint Paul
Joseph M. Dick and Matthew S. Dick
Department of Resource Analysis, Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
55404
Keywords: Residential Burglary, Hot Spots, GIS, Crime, Analysis, Prediction, Law
Enforcement, Police
Abstract
This proposal focuses on crime analysis methods using Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) to identify historical crime hot spots and trends pertaining to residential burglary in the
Western District of Saint Paul. The Saint Paul Police Department (SPPD) does not currently
have a comprehensive strategy for analyzing historical crime data using GIS. A strategy will
be developed to disseminate information to patrol supervisors which will improve the law
enforcement response for deterring crime. Residential burglary crime data obtained from the
SPPD will be analyzed using ESRI ArcGIS software in an effort to identify potential future
problem areas and historic crime trends. The strategy will provide a foundation for dealing
with residential burglaries and will be adaptable to other types of crime in need of analysis.
What is the research question?
The research question posed here is: “How
can GIS be utilized to identify burglary
crime trends and hot spots using historical
crime data, both temporal and spatial,
which could assist in developing a system
to improve the law enforcement response
for deterring burglaries in the SPPD
Western District?”
Provide background information.
What is the need for the study?
Law enforcement has a long history of
mapping crime locations, and has been
performing crime analysis since their
establishment (Groff and La Vigne, 2001).
The utilization of GIS analysis plays an
important role in identifying crime hot
spots and trends to predict future crimes
for the purpose of police intervention and
prevention (Groff and La Vigne).
For several years, residential
burglary in the Western District of Saint
Paul has been a major problem for its
citizens and police. Burglary crimes have
consistently plagued neighborhoods
throughout this geographic area, and their
occurrences and trends can appear to be
random.
The SPPD uses GIS crime data in a
limited capacity to aid in the development
of a patrol response and resource
allocation. One method is the production
of monthly crime maps for officers to
view. The maps consist of basic vector
data, displaying each grid within the
district with a solid color overlaid on each
grid corresponding to the number of crime
occurrences for the past month. Each
district is composed of grids that are
approximately one-half mile by one-half
mile in size. The maps do not show the
specific location of crime incidents. Patrol
supervisors use these maps to assign patrol
officers to patrol grids with the highest
number of crime occurrences within the
district in an effort to reduce crime.
A second method of GIS crime
data use by the SPPD is through the
CrimeGIS software program. The
CrimeGIS program is used to select a
specific type of crime occurring within a
selected date and time range. The program
will display all crimes and their specific
locations throughout the district within the
parameters selected.
Patrol sergeants use the CrimeGIS
program in roll calls to display crimes
committed within the past week or several
days. This data is displayed to patrol
officers to inform them of recent crime
activity, and to develop a directed patrol
response. Although this is a step towards a
proactive attempt to direct patrol to
problem areas, there is no analysis of the
data to suggest specific areas to combat
future crimes or possible past historical
crime trends to guide decision making and
resource allocation. Personnel using this
program also receive little or no training in
the use of the CrimeGIS program.
The SPPD has not incorporated
GIS crime data and analysis to its full
potential to aid in the development of an
effective plan and response to the burglary
crimes. The current methods do not reach
beyond identifying and displaying the
location of where recent crimes have
occurred. This void of data analysis results
in a patrol response lacking the most
accurate information to make informed
decisions. Modifications of the current
methods can improve the ability to
identify historical trends and hot spots that
will serve as a guide to decision making
and resource allocation.
historical trends and hot spots pertaining
to residential burglary which can assist
Western District patrol supervisors to
effectively deploy police resources to deter
burglary. Data, maps, and other visual aids
will be given to patrol supervisors as a
result of the analysis. This will replace the
current system which displays recent
crime, and lacks analysis of historical
crimes. This would be the first time a
study like this was applied to the SPPD.
The processes used to develop this
system could also be applied to other
crimes and even be emulated by other law
enforcement agencies. However, other
agencies should consider their own
jurisdiction’s unique crime patterns,
demographics, and other data before fully
adopting a similar system. This research
also emphasizes the integral role GIS,
crime analysis, and patrol supervisors have
in creating safer communities through a
more comprehensive approach.
What are the data needed for the study?
A multitude of data and data sets will be
required for this research. First, residential
burglary crime data will need to be
obtained. Historical burglary data for the
past five years will be compiled. From
these data, separate spatial and temporal
data sets will be derived and used in the
analysis.
Second, data to produce map
images will be obtained. A satellite image
(ortho-image) of the West District will
serve as the base image of the maps.
Visually, this form of data will be a vast
improvement over the current crime maps
that do not display this amount of detail.
Finally, vector data in the form of
shapefiles containing the Western District
borders, grids, streets, and other pertinent
features will be obtained, developed, and
overlaid on the base image. These data
What is the value of this research?
The purpose of this research is to create a
system utilizing GIS that will identify
2
will further enhance the image quality and
level of detail of the finished map
products.
Certain data attributes are required for the
analysis. The following attributes will be
analyzed:
1. Historical crime data
a. Crime type
i. Burglary
b. What type of burglary
i. Residential
ii. Occupied
dwelling
iii. Unoccupied
dwelling
c. Total of all burglaries
i. Number.
2. Spatial data
a. Street address where
crime was committed
i. Number
ii. Street name
b. Grid within Western
District where crime
was committed
i. Grid number.
3. Temporal data
a. When crime occurred
i. Time
ii. Day
iii. Week
iv. Month
v. Year.
What is the data collection procedure?
The residential burglary crime data will be
obtained from the Saint Paul Police
Department’s Record Management System
(SPPD RMS), a database that contains all
of the documented police activity, calls,
and reports for the City of Saint Paul. In
SPPD RMS a query of the data will be run
to include only reported residential
burglaries that occurred within the
Western District, which will be used for
this study. The range of time the data will
be collected from is January 1, 2009 to
December 31, 2013, a five year span.
It is possible unreported crimes
exist, but for this analysis, unreported
crimes will not be represented.
The queried crime data will be
transferred to a Microsoft Excel
spreadsheet for review and analysis. The
data will contain a multitude of attributes
for each burglary crime incident. Only
spatial and temporal data attributes will be
utilized in this study.
Imagery data for the base map will
be obtained from the United States
Department of Agriculture Natural
Resources Conservation Service
Geospatial Data Gateway website. The
supporting features for the shapefiles, such
as, the streets and water features will be
obtained from the Minnesota Department
of Natural Resources Data Deli website.
The district borders and grid
borders will be shapefiles created using
ESRI ArcMap and ArcCatalog software
referencing official documents from the
City of Saint Paul and the SPPD.
Describe how meaning will be made of
the raw data.
Much of the raw data to be used in this
project has already been created by other
organizations. This data will need to be
edited to eliminate unnecessary attributes
and ensure the data is consistent. The data
will also need to be edited to focus solely
on the geographic area of the Western
District.
The value of this study will come
from the analysis of the edited data and the
identification of trends related to burglary
What data attributes are needed to
conduct a thorough analysis?
3
crimes. Data, maps, and other visual aids
will be produced by the analysis and will
be given to patrol supervisors to use as a
tool in forming a patrol strategy to deter
burglary crimes.
neighborhoods where burglary is likely to
occur.
What are the assigned analysis
methods?
The research question will be answered
when the results generated by the analysis
identifies hot spots and historical crime
trends where residential burglary has
occurred in the Western District.
Will this design and deliverables answer
the research question?
The development of the historical,
temporal, and spatial burglary crime data
for the purpose of creating a map base
image and individual layers for display
will take place before analysis. The data
obtained from SPPD RMS, United States
Department of Agriculture, and the
Minnesota Department of Natural
Resources will be combined in a shapefile
in order to display the data and prepare for
analysis.
The spatial and temporal burglary
crime data will be analyzed using ESRI
ArcMap and ArcCatalog Software for
trends and hot spots within each month
over the five year period. Data specific to
the Western District will be created based
on the trends identified by the analysis of
the historical crime, spatial, and temporal
data. The data will be used to create maps
and other visual aids of the Western
District and depict areas where crime hot
spots have historically existed and where
future crimes may occur.
What specific problems might a critical
researcher anticipate with regard to this
study?
This study is attempting to use historical,
spatial, and temporal crime data to draw
conclusions on where crime is likely to
occur. However, there are several factors
that are not being considered in the
analysis. These factors include
demographic data, temperature, proximity
of crime incident location to a known
burglar’s residence, and other
environmental factors that are known to
have a correlation with burglary. It is
possible that including one or more of
these factors could increase the
effectiveness of the study.
Another possible problem with the
study is measuring the effectiveness of the
research. One goal of this research is the
further development and refinement of the
patrol strategy and police resource
allocation by patrol supervisors. Changing
the patrol strategy utilizing information
provided by this analysis may be an
improvement in proactive policing, but
does not necessarily guarantee less
burglary crime occurrences.
Displacement of crime presents an
additional problem. The possibility exists
that as a result of this study, the
occurrence of burglaries in identified hot
spots may be reduced, but burglary crimes
Provide examples of expected
deliverables to be generated from the
assigned analysis methods.
The deliverables derived from the crime
prediction model will be maps displaying
historical crime hot spots within the
Western District. Information generated by
the analysis will be disseminated through
the chain of command and lead to the
development of a patrol strategy in
4
may be displaced to other areas of the
Western District. The analysis method
does not target the origins of burglary
crime, but focuses only on the attributes of
crimes already committed.
A second concern is that the results
may repeat hot spots in the same areas of
the Western District. This could direct
patrol officers into the same
neighborhoods repeatedly, leaving other
areas of the district with little police
presence. Even if this was effective in
reducing burglary incidents, it may leave
residents in the less patrolled areas with
the impression that police are ignoring
their neighborhood.
To whom can the findings be
generalized?
The findings can be generalized to all of
its intended stakeholders: police
administration, patrol supervisors, patrol
officers, residents of the Western District,
and the general public. The findings can
be easily interpreted by those without GIS
or crime analysis experience.
The map products can be used to
promote a level of governmental
transparency in police meetings with the
public. It can demonstrate that data
collected about crimes that occurred in the
Western District are being used to their
potential to develop proactive measures to
prevent burglary throughout the Western
District.
The findings can also be
generalized to other law enforcement
agencies. They would be able to view the
findings, and begin to adopt a similar
approach customized for crime issues in
their jurisdiction.
References
Groff, E. R., and La Vigne, N. G. 2001.
Mapping an Opportunity Surface of
Residential Burglary. Journal of
Research in Crime and
Delinquency, 38(3), p 257-278.
What specific ethical concerns exist
within this research?
A specific concern with this study is
understanding its limitations. The study is
not intended to be used as a stand-alone
tool for developing a crime prevention
strategy. It would be unethical to promote
the study knowing that the results were
insufficient to base police resource
deployment upon them. The study is
intended to be used as a supplement to an
overall crime prevention strategy.
5