SC Design Facility Location Sections 4.1, 4.2 Chapter 5 and 6 utdallas.edu/~metin 1 Outline Frequency decomposition of activities A strategic framework for facility location Multi-echelon networks Analytical methods for location utdallas.edu/~metin 2 Frequency Decomposition SCs are enormous It is hard to make all decisions at once Integration by smart decomposition Frequency decomposition yields several sets of decisions such that each set is integrated within itself utdallas.edu/~metin 3 Frequency Decomposition Low frequency activity, ~ once a year, high fixed cost – R&D budget – Capacity expansion budget Moderate frequency activity, ~ once a month – Cancellation of specific R&D projects depending on experimental outcomes – Specific machines to purchase High frequency activity, ~ once a day, low fixed cost – What experiments to start / continue today – What to produce utdallas.edu/~metin 4 Facility Location: The Cost-Response Time Frontier An inventory location based point of view 7-Eleven Regional Hi Local Finished Goods (FG) Inventory Regional FG Inventory Cost Local WIP (work-in-process) Central Sam’s Club Central FG Inventory Central WIP Central Raw Material and Custom production Custom production with raw material at suppliers Low Pull the inventory upstream Low utdallas.edu/~metin Response Time Hi 5 Service and Number of Facilities Response Time Number of Facilities utdallas.edu/~metin 6 Where inventory needs to be for a one week order response time - typical results --> 1 DC Customer DC utdallas.edu/~metin 7 5 day order response time - typical results -> 2 DCs Customer DC utdallas.edu/~metin 8 3 day order response time - typical results -> 5 DCs Customer DC utdallas.edu/~metin 9 Next day order response time - typical results --> 13 DCs Customer DC utdallas.edu/~metin 10 Same day / next day order response time typical results --> 26 DCs Customer DC utdallas.edu/~metin 11 Inbound and outbound shipping with more facilities Supplier Manufacturer Inbound shipment Customer Outbound shipment Add more facilities. Supplier Manufacturer Distributor Inbound shipment Retailer Customer Outbound shipment More inbound shipping and less outbound shipping with more facilities. Less (inbound + outbound) shipping costs with more facilities, 12 utdallas.edu/~metin if economies of scale in transportation. Costs and Number of Facilities Total SC Inventory Facility costs Costs Transportation Number of facilities No economies of scale in shipment size, SC covers a larger portion with each facility. With economies of scale in inbound shipping to retailers. utdallas.edu/~metin 13 Cost Build-up as a function of facilities Cost of Operations Total Costs Percent Service Level Within Promised Time Facilities Inventory Transportation Labor Number of Facilities utdallas.edu/~metin 14 Network Design Decisions Facility function: Plant, DC, Warehouse: What facility performs what function – Packaging at the manufacturer or warehouse – Should a rental computer return location run diagnostic tests on the returned computers or should the testing be done at major warehouses? Question arising from CRU Computer Rental Case done in OPRE6302 Facility location – Starbucks opened up at UTD student apartments in 2005 but closed in 2006! – Recall Japanese 7-eleven and their blanketing strategy – SMU’s experimentation with Plano campus: http://www.smu.edu/legacy . Capacity allocation – SOM car park took 80 cars in 2005 and expanded in 2006 to take about 110 cars. Supply and market allocation: Who serves whom – By location: UT Austin serves central Texas students – By grade: UT Arlington serves undergraduate students utdallas.edu/~metin 15 Strategic Factors Influencing Location Decisions Strategic Facilities Lead facility Global Customers Regional Customers Server <local-content> Offshore <reduced tariffs> <for exports> VW plants in Mexico Serving Latin America utdallas.edu/~metin Suziki’s Indian venture Maruti Udyog Source <low-cost> Nike plants in Korea <advanced technology> Lockheed Martin’s JSF in Dallas Outpost facility <Learn local skills> Facilities in Japan; Toyota Prius Contributor <customization> <development skills> Maruti Udyog 16 Factors Influencing Location Decisions Customer response time and local presence Operating costs Technological, – Availability and economies of scale (fixed operational costs) » Infrastructure, electricity, phone lines, suppliers Macroeconomic, – – Semiconductor manufacturing takes place only in 5-6 countries worldwide Tariffs, exchange rate volatility, economic volatility Economic communities: Nafta, EU, Pacific Rim, Efta Politic, stability Logistics and facility costs Competitive – Positive externalities » » » » utdallas.edu/~metin Nissan in India develops car suppliers which can also supply Suziki in India. Toyota City Shopping Malls DFW Telecom corridor hosting Alcatel, Ericsson, Nortel, … – Negative externalities, see the next slide 17 Negative externality: Market Splitting by Hotelling’s Model 0 a a b 1-a-b 1 b Suppose customers (preferences, e.g. sugar content in coke) are uniformly distributed over [0,1] How much does firm at a get, how about firm at b? If a locates first, where should b locate? If a estimates how b will locate in response to a’s location, where should a locate? utdallas.edu/~metin 18 A Framework for Global Site Location Competitive STRATEGY INTERNAL CONSTRAINTS Capital, growth strategy, existing network PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES Cost, Scale/Scope impact, support required, flexibility COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL COMPETITION PHASE I Supply Chain Strategy PHASE II Regional Facility Configuration PRODUCTION METHODS Skill needs, response time utdallas.edu/~metin REGIONAL DEMAND Size, growth, homogeneity, local specifications POLITICAL, EXCHANGE RATE AND DEMAND RISK PHASE III Desirable Sites FACTOR COSTS Labor, materials, site specific TARIFFS AND TAX INCENTIVES PHASE IV Location Choices AVAILABLE INFRASTRUCTURE LOGISTICS COSTS Transport, inventory, coordination 19 Comparing Locations Objectively According to McKinsey Global Institute on HBR Jun. 2006 p.91 Draw up a list of possible locations Define the decision criteria – Six common criteria used by companies » » » » » » 1. Cost of operating 2. Availability of the skills 3. Sales potential in the adjacent markets 4. Risk of doing the business 5. Attractiveness of living environments 6. Quality of infrastructure Collect data for each location Weight the criteria » Fortisbank of Belgium, wants to enter new large markets, gives highest weight to 3. » Citibank, wants a location for a captive IT center, gives the highest weight to 4. Find risk data at – Economist intelligence unit: www.eiu.com – UN Development Program: http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/ Rank locations according to weighted sum of their scores Assess the dynamics of the labor pool » Availability of skilled labor utdallas.edu/~metin – Top tier universities in the cities (How many top Business schools in Dallas?). 20 Analytical Models for SC Design Objective functions » Private sector deals with total costs minimizes the sum of the distances to the customers » Public sector deals with fairness and equity minimizes the distance to the furthest customer – Location of emergency response units Demand allocation » Distance vs. Price vs. Quality: Recall Hotelling model Demand pattern over a geography: Discrete vs. Continuous Feasibility check » Ante vs. Post Distances utdallas.edu/~metin » Euclidean vs. Rectilinear » Triangular inequality 21 Network Optimization Models Allocating demand to production facilities Locating facilities Determining capacity Key Costs: •Fixed facility cost •Transportation cost •Production cost •Inventory cost •Coordination cost Which plants to establish? How to configure the network? utdallas.edu/~metin 22 A transportation network Defined by data K, D and c n supply points m demand points D1 c11 K1 D2 c12 c14 c22 K2 c23 D3 c31 K3 utdallas.edu/~metin c32 c34 D4 23 Demand Allocation Model: Transportation Problem Which market is served by which plant? Which supply sources are used by a plant? n m Min cij xij i 1 j 1 s.t. Given m demand points, j=1..m with demands Dj Given n supply points, i=1..n with capacity Ki n x D ij j x K i i 1 m Send supplies from supply points to demand points xij = Quantity shipped from plant site i to customer j j 1 x ij ij 0 Each unit of shipment from supply point i to demand point j costs cij utdallas.edu/~metin <See transportation.xls> 24 A transportation network Defined by data K, D, c and f Which supply n supply points point operates? m demand points D1 c11 y1=yes or no f1,K1 D2 c12 c14 y2=yes or no f2,K2 c22 c23 D3 c31 y3=yes or no f3,K3 utdallas.edu/~metin c32 c34 D4 25 Plant Location with Multiple Sourcing Which market is served by which plant? Which supply sources are used by a plant? None of the plants are open, a cost of fi is paid to open plant i n Min i 1 yi = 1 if plant is located at site i, 0 otherwise xij = Quantity shipped from plant site i to customer j m f y c x i i i 1 j 1 ij ij s.t. n x D i 1 At most k plants will be opened n ij j m x K y j 1 m y i 1 i ij i i k y {0,1} i How does cost change as k increases? utdallas.edu/~metin 26 Plant Location with Single Sourcing Each customer has exactly one supplier Which market is served by which plant? Which supply sources are used by a plant? n None of the plants are open, a cost of fi is paid to open plant i Min i 1 n m f y D c x i i i 1 j 1 j ij ij s.t. n x i 1 yi = 1 if plant is located at site i, 0 otherwise xij = 1 if market j is supplied by factory i, 0 otherwise 1 ij m Dx K y j 1 j ij i i yi , xi , j {0,1} Can a plant satisfy the demand of two or more customers with this formulation? utdallas.edu/~metin 27 Case Study: Applichem Demand Allocation To Mexico Canada Venezuela Frankfurt Gary Sunchem Capacity From Mexico Canada Venezuela Frankfurt Gary, Indiana Sunchem Demand utdallas.edu/~metin $ $ $ $ $ $ 81 147 172 115 143 222 30 $ 92 $ 78 $ 106 $ 71 $ 77 $ 129 26 $ 136 $ 135 $ 96 $ 110 $ 134 $ 205 160 $ 101 $ 98 $ 120 $ 59 $ 91 $ 145 200 $ 96 $ 88 $ 111 $ 74 $ 71 $ 136 264 $ 101 $ 97 $ 117 $ 77 $ 90 $ 116 119 220 37 45 470 185 50 28 Applichem Demand Allocation (1982) Demand Capacity 220 Mexico 37 Canada 45 Venezuela 30 32 11 45 Gary 50 Sunchem utdallas.edu/~metin 30 Canada 26 Latin America 160 115 200 470 Frankfurt 185 26 Mexico 36 185 119 Europe 200 U.S.A 264 Japan 119 29 Applichem Production Network 1982 (with duties) Mexico Mexico Canada Canada Venezuela Latin America Europe Frankfurt Gary, Indiana U.S.A Sunchem Japan Annual Cost = $72,916,400 utdallas.edu/~metin 30 Applichem Production Network 1982 (without duties) Mexico Mexico Canada Canada Venezuela Latin America Europe Frankfurt Gary U.S.A Sunchem Japan Annual Cost = 66,328,100 Without duties, Venezuela and Canada plants are closed and Frankfurt satisfies the excess Canada, Latin America and USA demand. There is consolidation without duties. 31 utdallas.edu/~metin 1981 Network . Mexico Mexico Canada Canada Venezuela Frankfurt Latin America Europe Gary U.S.A Sunchem Japan Annual Cost = $79,598,500 utdallas.edu/~metin 32 1981 Network (Sunchem Closed) Mexico Mexico Canada Canada Venezuela Frankfurt Latin America Europe Gary U.S.A Sunchem Japan Annual Cost = $82,246,800 utdallas.edu/~metin 33 Value of Adding 0.1 M Pounds Capacity (1982) Shadow (dual) prices from LP tells you where to invest. Location Mexico Shadow price or Lagrange multiplier $0 Canada $8,300 Venezuela $36,900 Frankfurt $22,300 Gary $25,200 Sunchem $0 Capacity should be evaluated as an option and priced accordingly. utdallas.edu/~metin 35 Gravity Methods for Location Ton Mile-Center Solution Given n delivery locations, i=1..n, ai, bi : Coordinates of delivery location i di : Distance to delivery location i Fi : Annual tonnage to delivery location i Locate a warehouse at (x,y) <See gravitylocation.xls> utdallas.edu/~metin di n Min x, y i 1 ( x ai) ( y bi) 2 2 F i (ai x) (bi y) 2 n ai Fi i 1 d i x n Fi i 1 d i 2 n bi Fi i 1 d i y n Fi i 1 d i 36 Chapter 6 Network Design in an Uncertain Environment utdallas.edu/~metin 38 A tree representation of uncertainty One way to represent Uncertainty is a binomial tree Up by 1 down by -1 move with equal probability Normal(0, T ) 2 2 (1) 2 (0.5) (1) 2 (0.5) 1 <Show Applet balldrop.htm> utdallas.edu/~metin T steps 39 Decision tree – One column of nodes for each time period – Each node corresponds to a future state » What is in a state? Price, demand, inflation, exchange rate, your OPRE 6366 grade – Each path corresponds to an evolution of the states into the future – Transition from one node to another determined by probabilities – Evaluate the cost of a path starting from period T and work backwards in time to period 0. utdallas.edu/~metin 40 Evaluating Facility Investments: AM Tires. Section 6.5 of Chopra. Plant US 100,000 Mexico 50,000 Now Dedicated Plant Fixed Cost Variable Cost $1 M $15 /year. /tire 4 M pesos / 110 pesos year /tire Flexible Plant Fixed Cost Variable Cost $1.1 M $15 /year /tire 4.4 M pesos 110 pesos /year /tire U.S. Demand = 100,000; Mexico demand = 50,000. Demand is not to be met always. But selling more increases profit. 1US$ = 9 pesos. Sale price $30 in US and 240 pesos in Mexico. Future Demand goes up or down by 20 percent with probability 0.5 and Exchange rate goes up or down by 25 per cent with probability 0.5. utdallas.edu/~metin 41 AM Tires Period 0 Period 1 Period 2 DU=144 DM = 72 E=14.06 DU=120 DM = 60 E=11.25 DU=120 DM = 60 E=6.75 DU=120 DM = 40 E=11.25 DU=100 DM=50 E=9 DU=120 DM = 40 E=6.75 DU=80 DM = 60 E=11.25 DU=80 DM = 60 E=6.75 DU=80 DM = 40 E=11.25 DU=144 DM = 72 E=8.44 DU=144 DM = 48 E=14.06 DU=144 DM = 48 E=8.44 DU=96 DM = 72 E=14.06 How many states in period 2? Consider US demand 4 or 3 states Consider the rest also 4x4x4 or 3x3x3 DU=96 DM = 72 E=8.44 DU=96 DM = 48 E=14.06 DU=96 DM = 48 E=8.44 DU=80 DM = 40 E=6.75 utdallas.edu/~metin 42 AM Tires Four possible capacity configurations: •Both dedicated •Both flexible •U.S. flexible, Mexico dedicated •U.S. dedicated, Mexico flexible Consider the both flexible configuration For each node solve the demand allocation model. Plants utdallas.edu/~metin Markets U.S. U.S. Mexico Mexico 43 AM Tires in period 2: Demand Allocation for DUS = 144; DMex = 72, E = 14.06 Source i U.S. U.S. Mexico Mexico Destination j U.S. Mexico U.S. Mexico 2 Max 2 m i 1 j1 ij x ij Variable cost $15 $15 110 pesos 110 pesos Shipping cost 0 $1 $1 0 E Sale price 14.06 14.06 14.06 14.06 $30 240 pesos $30 240 pesos Margin($) mij $15 $1.1 $21.2 $9.2 1.1=240/14.06-15-1 21.2=30-110/14.06-1 9.2=(240-110)/14.06 such that 2 x i 1 2 x j 1 Dj ij ij Compare this formulation to the Transportation problem. We maximize the profit now. Ki xij 0 utdallas.edu/~metin 44 AM Tires: Demand Allocation for DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 14.06; Cheap Peso Plants Markets 100K; $15 U.S. U.S. Profit =Revenue-Cost Mexico 6K; $9.2 Mexico US Production’s contribution=100,000*15-1,100,000=$400,000 Mex Production’s contribution=44,000*21.2+6000*9.2-4,400,000/14.06=$675,055 Profit(DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 14.06; Period 2; Both flexible)=$1,075,055 utdallas.edu/~metin 45 AM Tires: Demand Allocation for DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 8.44; Expensive Peso Plants Markets 100K; $15 U.S. U.S. Mexico Mexico 6K; $15.4 US Production’s contribution=100,000*15-1,100,000=$400,000 Mex Production’s contribution=44,000*16+6000*15.4-4,400,000/8.44 =704000+92400-521327=$275,073 Profit(DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 8.44; Period 2; Both flexible)=$675,073 utdallas.edu/~metin 46 AM Tires: Demand Allocation for DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 5.06; Very Expensive Peso Plants Markets 78K; $15 U.S. U.S. Mexico Mexico 50K; $25.7 US Production’s contribution=78000*15+22000*31.4-1,100,000=$760,800 Mex Production’s contribution=50000*25.7-4,400,000/5.06=$415,435 Profit(DU = 144; DM = 72, E = 8.44; Period 2; Both flexible)=$1,176,235 Cheap Peso profit=$1,075K; Expensive Peso profit=$675K; Very Expensive Peso profit=$1,176K utdallas.edu/~metin 47 Facility Decision at AM Tires Make profit computations for the first year nodes one by one: Compute the profit for a node and add to that (0.9)(1/8)(Sum of the profits of all 8 nodes connected to the current one) Plant Configuration United States Mexico Dedicated Dedicated Flexible Dedicated Dedicated Flexible Flexible Flexible utdallas.edu/~metin NPV $1,629,319 $1,514,322 $1,722,447 $1,529,758 48 Capacity Investment Strategies Single sourcing is risky Hedging Strategy – Risk management? » Too much capacity or too little capacity » E.g. 200 leading financial services companies are examined from 19972002. Every other company struck at least once by a risky event. Source: Running with Risk. The McKinsey Quarterly. No.4. 2003. » Managers unfamiliar with risk often focus on relatively simple accounting metrics as net income, earnings per share, return on investment, etc. – Match revenue and cost exposure Flexible Strategy – Excess total capacity in multiple plants – Flexible technologies More will be said in aggregate planning chapter utdallas.edu/~metin 49 Summary Frequency decomposition Factors influencing facility decisions A strategic framework for facility location Gravity methods for location Network-LP-IP optimization models Value capacity as a real option utdallas.edu/~metin 50 Location Allocation Decisions Plants Warehouses Markets 1 2 Which plants to establish? Which warehouses to establish? How to configure the network? utdallas.edu/~metin 51 p-Median Model Inputs: A set of feasible plant locations, indexed by j A set of markets, indexed by i Di demand of market i No capacity limitations for plants At most p plants are to be opened dij distance between market i and plant j yj = 1 if plant is located at site j, 0 otherwise xij = 1 if market i is supplied from plant site j, 0 otherwise utdallas.edu/~metin Min Di d ij xij i j s.t. y j j p xi , j y j for all i, j x ij 1 for all i j x ,y ij j {0,1} for all i, j 52 p-Center Model Replace the objective function in p-Median problem with Min Max {dijxij : i is a market assigned to plant j} We are minimizing maximum distance between a market and a plant Or say minimizing maximum distance between fire stations and all the houses served by those fire stations. An example with p=3 stations and 9 houses: utdallas.edu/~metin 53 p-Covering Model xi = 1 if demand point i is covered, 0 otherwise yj = 1 if facility j is opened, 0 otherwise Ni facilities associated with demand point i If j is in Ni, j can serve i Can you read constraint (*) in English? Max Di xi i s.t. y jN i y j j xi for all i (*) p j x,y i utdallas.edu/~metin j {0,1} for all i, j 54 Other Models p-Choice Models – Criteria to choose the server: distance, price? Models with multiple decision makers – Franchise model utdallas.edu/~metin 55