Renewable Energy Workshop
2012
PS10 CSP Plant – Andalucia, Spain
“Global Market Impacts on Wind and PV Technologies”
A Presentation to the Bucknell University Renewable Energy Workshop – 12 May 2012

Review two renewable energy technologies
 current market drivers
▪ Technology, economics, electricity demand,
environmental concerns, modularity and construction
ease, government policy

Resulting Market Trends
 US and Global

Impact on Renewable Costs and Electricity
Prices
Over
$3/watt
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
About 86% Fossil Fuels
Biomass, 3
Other, 1.4
Hydro, 2.6
Nuclear, 9.3
CO2 Emissions (millions of metric tons
.
and per quad)
Petroleum: 2598, 64.0
Natural Gas: 1198, 53.0
Coal:
2115, 92.3
Petroleum,
38.9
1 Quad = 293 billion kWh
(actual)
Natural Gas,
24.1
Coal, 22.6
1 Quad = 98 billion kWh
(used, taking into account
efficiency)
Source: EIA Energy Outlook 2009 (Early Release), Table 1, 2008 Data
US EIA - 2009
US EIA - 2007
Source: http://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/figes1.html
Nuclear
Hydro
Fossil

Prime Movers (World Electricity 1998,2005,2008 & US 2009)
 Fossil Fuel (Thermal) powered – 62.8%  66.0%  67.8%  69.1%
 Nuclear fission – 16.9%  15.2%  13.5%  20.2%
 Hydro powered – 18.8%  16.7%  15.9%  6.8%
 Renewables & Other** – 1.5%  2.1%  2.8%  3.9%
 ** - ‘Other’ includes geothermal, wood, solar and biomass
Source: USDOE - EIA and IEA.org
Energy
in
Quads
Data says we will be 81% Fossil in 2035!!
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2010
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USA – 99.9
China – 73.8
Russia – 30.4
Japan – 22.8
India – 17.7
Germany – 14.6
Canada – 14.0
France – 11.4
UK – 9.8
Brazil – 9.6
World total is 472; Average per 100 Million people
is about 7.32. If world used US average
total consumption would be about 2148 quad!
Source: US DOE EIA
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
SOURCE: S.Kurtz, “Opportunities and Challenges for Development of a Mature
Concentrating Photovltaic Power Industry”, NREL Technical Report Feb 2009

Historic Market Growth
 Technology improvement
 Near mass production in China
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
2010 – 143%
2011 – 31.8%
2005-2011
CAGR – 61.5%
SOURCE: Schwabe and Jansson
2011> 62 GW
<$0.95/ W
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
SOURCE: U.K.W. Schwabe MSE Thesis 2011 Rowan University
2012
SOURCES: Prometheus Institute, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS , RAI Services, Inc.
2011 USDoL NY/NJ Average: 20.2 ¢ /kWh ----------------------------
Moving Toward Grid Parity
EIA - NJ All Sector Weighted Average: 14.84 ¢ /kWh ---------------------------------------------
2012 EIA – PA Residential Average: 12.6 ¢ /kWh ---------------------------------------------
SOURCES: U.K.W. Schwabe, INTEGRATED SYSTEMS
Source: http://www.oe.energy.gov/DocumentsandMedia/adequacy_report_01-09-09.pdf
Source: National Renewable
Energy Lab (NREL), Energy
Analysis Office
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report
SOURCE: Renewables 2011 – Global Status Report

Global Hydro Capacity
 Continues to increase
 Large projects less so than small projects
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Wind
 Most rapidly expanding in terms of capacity
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Solar Photovoltaics (PV)
 Most rapidly expanding in terms of growth rate
100000
38600
35800
27051
24000
19865
MWs of Wind
41000
18200
15197
11531
10000
6500
3440
7270
8133
8207
7500
5950
3760
2826
2520
1290
1000
1283
1530
1466
1744
927
744
730
561.8
MWs of PV
390.5
287.7
201.3
125.8
100
69.4
10
1992
1994
77.6
154.9
88.6
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
SOURCE: Jansson 2012
World Annual Generation Changes
New
 Year
ΔGrowth Wind & PV
%
 2008
+157 GW
33 GW
21 %
 2009
+127 GW
46 GW
36 %
 2010
+157 GW
54 GW
34%
 2011
+61 GW
65 GW
106%

World Wind demand is again expected to be
higher than 2011 demand
 US market growth of 1,695MW (new wind) projects is
52% higher than 2011 Quarter 1*

World Photovoltaic demand is also expected to
exceed 2011 performance
 Q1'12 global PV demand is now forecast at 6.9 GW,
down 35% Q/Q, but up a huge 146% Y/Y**
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SOURCES:
* - American Wind Energy Association - http://www.awea.org/learnabout/industry_stats/index.cfm
* * - Solarbuzz - http://solarbuzz.com/our-research/recent-findings/expectations-policy-adjustmentsgermany-drive-global-pv-demand-146-yy-q
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Cents per kWh

Min
8.4
Max 2012*
14.2 5-13
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Wind Costs (2009)
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PV Costs (2009)
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* - Does not include 30% Federal Tax Credit, depends on local resource
13.2
29.8
7-18
2009 Data Source: http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/renewables_cost_data.xls
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Wind
 $1.5 - $2.00 / Watt
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PV
 $2 – $3.50 / Watt
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Coal
 $3-$3.50 / Watt
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Gas
SOURCE: http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=1639
 $1-$1.50 / Watt
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Nuclear
 $4-6.50 / Watt
SOURCE: http://www.anga.us/issues--policy/power-generation/clean--efficient
The U.S average residential retail price of electricity was 11.53 cents per kWh in 2010
SOURCE: http://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state.php
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor – BLS –News Release 30 Nov 2011
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
Climate Change is…
US Opinion
Under
Exaggerated
Generally Correct
Over Exaggerated
No Opinion
SOURCE: 2011 Gallup Poll
750
You are Here
CO2 / ppmv
500
396 ppm
250
Siegenthaler et al 2005
Vostok + EPICA Dome C
0
600
400
200
Age / 000 years before present
0
Next year over
400 ppm !
Source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/1208natltemp.png
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction
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Homeowners and Businesses
30% Renewable Energy Investment Tax Credit
Businesses and Investors
Accelerated Depreciation
30 States with min. standards
7 States with voluntary goals
SOURCE: http://205.254.135.7/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4850
WA: 15% by 2020*
MT: 15% by 2015
☼ OR: 25% by 2025
(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW
ND: 10% by 2015
(large utilities)*
VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales by 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
MN: 25% by 2025
SD: 10% by 2015
WI: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020
IA: 105 MW
(IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
CA: 20% by 2010
(Class I Renewables)
RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ MD: 20% by 2022
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ DE: 20% by 2019*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
☼ DC: 20% by 2020
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025
+ 1% annual increase
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
KS: 20% by 2020
UT: 20% by 2025*
New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ MA: 15% by 2020
by 2015*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
ME: 30% by 2000
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
HI: 40% by 2030
30 states
& DC
have an RPS
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
Solar water heating eligible
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
*†
7 states have goals
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources
Source: http://www.dsireusa.org/
SOURCE:
http://srectrade.com/srec_prices.php
Time Period
Autumn 2009 – December 2010
January 2011 – March 2011
April 2011
May-June 2011
July 2011
August 2011
Sep-December 2011
January 2012
February 2012
March 2012
April 2012
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SREC Value
$250-$300 / MWhr
$176 -$250 / MWhr
$ 100 / MWhr
$ 80 / MWhr
$ 50 / MWhr
$ 25 / MWhr
$ 10-20 / MWhr
$ 20-30 / MWhr
$ 10-35 / MWhr
$ 10-20 / MWhr
$ 20 / MWhr
SOURCE: http://srectrade.com/pennsylvania_srec.php
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1) Growing Global Energy/Electrical Demand
2) Technology Experience and R&D
3) Increasing Cost Competitiveness
4) Growing Environmental Concerns
5) Governmental Policy Initiatives
▪ Tax Credits, Feed-in Tariffs, RPS and RECs

6) Rapid/Modular/Ease of Construction



Designed in 6 months
Permitted in 3 months
Constructed in 6 months
Loss of any one market driver will not change
momentum of this industry
 Most of states in the US (including PA) now have
aggressive renewable portfolio standards
requiring ever increasing levels of wind, solar
and other renewable based electricity.
 New Jersey’s Experiment was a success – one
state can impact global markets and investment
in a renewable technology
 The global demand for wind systems and
photovoltaic (PV) systems has been doubling
every 1-3 years.
