Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2015
February 19, 2015

Class Information and News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• Tuesday, February 24 th ,
Dr. Frank Behrendt Seminar "The German
Energiewende - Roadmap to Germany's Energy System
2050” Tuesday, February 24, 2015, 10:00 AM to 11:30
AM, Ross School of Business, Blau Auditorium, 1 st Floor

Resources and Recommended Reading
• International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/ works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond.
• Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/ keeps track of (inter)national energy use and future trends.
– Frequently Asked Questions
• The ‘ wedge ’ paper: “ A plan to keep carbon in check ” by
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006. ( link )
– This is an influential policy-oriented paper on how to reform energy sector while still achieving economic growth
• Throughout the presentation

Resources and Recommended Reading
• Rood Blogs
– We Like to Burn Things
– All the Oil We Want
– No Energy Policy and Even Less Climate
Policy
– Earthquakes and Climate Change

Next Lecture: Germany Energy Policy
• Dr. Frank Behrendt Seminar "The German
Energiewende - Roadmap to Germany's
Energy System 2050”
– IEA on Renewables
– Record German Renewables
– Germany and China on Renewables

Outline: Class 13, Winter 2015
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity

World primary energy supply in 1973 and 2003 megaton oil equivalent
*
Source: International Energy Agency 2005

Update from IEA
• CO
2
Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2013
– 1971: About 5,500 Mtoe, 86% Fossil Fuels
– 2011: About 13,000 Mtoe, 80 % Fossil Fuels
• Emissions by category
– 83% energy production
– 8% agricultural
– 6% industrial processes
– 3% waste

2011 Energy Supply and CO
2
Emissions
13 111 Megaton oil equivalent
Oil 32% Coal 29% Gas 21%
Other
18%
Oil 35% Coal 44%
Portion of Energy
Production
Gas
20%
1%
Portion of CO
2
Emission
Source: International Energy Agency
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Consumption 2013
Coal Top Source for Electricity, WSJ, 2014

World Carbon Emissions
10
8 cement and gas flaring gas
6 oil
4 coal
2
0
1850 1900 1950
• CO
2 emissions arise from:
1. Cement production (~5 %)
2. Deforestation (~20 %)
3. Fossil fuel use (~75 %) deforestation
2000
75%

CO
2 source: Deforestation
10
8
6
4
Fossil fuels 320
Deforestation 200 GtC
Total 520
Compare with 590 GtC in the preindustrial atmosphere cement and gas flaring gas oil coal
2 deforestation
0
1850 1900 1950
• Deforestation is thus an important part of climate change:
2000
– It accounts for ~20 % of current CO
2
– It accounted for ~35 % of total CO
2 emissions emissions since preindustrial times.

IEA Plots of Energy Balance and Use
• IEA Statistics
• IEA Energy Balances
• IEA Graphics: Sankey Diagram
• IEA Glossary: for Balances

Trend of fossil fuel use
IEA on Renewables
• In ‘ businessas-usual ’ fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy
• Currently rapid increase of coal use, globally.
International Energy Outlook, EIA, 2007

Energy Landscape (seemingly) Changes
• Hydrogen Fuel Cells
• Renewables and Renewable Portfolios
– U.S. Trade and Solar Panels
– Wind Tax Credit
– Biofuels
• Ethanol, Switch grass, Sugar, Algae
• Fracking
• Natural Gas Displacing Coal
• Methane Leakage from Fracking

• These numbers are out of date, but balance and message is consistent over time
• Details at end of presentation

Emissions from economic sectors
• Industrial: creating products from raw materials (mining, cement, agriculture)
US energy use by sector
• Commercial: stores, municipalities, etc.
• Transportation: cars, planes, ships
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Agriculture: A different slice
• This is a very complex way to look at the problem
• (Some) Details at end of presentation

Agriculture: A different slice
• UN Food and Agriculture Organization
– Livestock’s Long Shadow
• Agriculture’s Role in Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
• Livestock and Climate Change
• Rood Blogs
– Greenhouse Emissions of Agriculture
– We Are What We Eat
– How Much Does It Cost?

Agriculture
• Use of direct fossil fuel energy relatively low: ~3 –4.5 % in industrialized countries.
– Half of used energy and direct
CO
2 emissions are from fertilizer production (Haber-Bosch process)
• BUT… big contributor to deforestation and land use change.
• Livestock rearing is most significant contributor

Agriculture: Livestock
• Responsible for ~18 % of CO
2 equivalent GHG emissions (so including N
2
O and CH
4
)
 Same share as entire US!
– 9 % of world CO
2 emissions
• Fossil fuels burned to produce fertilizer
• Deforestation and land use changes for feed production and grazing (bulk!)
– 37 % of world CH
4 emissions
• Fermentation in cattle stomachs (biggest anthropogenic source)
• Animal manure
– 65 % of N
2
O
• Mostly from animal manure deposited on soils, with subsequent N
2
O emission
10
8
6
4
2
0
1850 1900 cement and gas flaring gas oil coal
1950 deforestation
2000

End use
• Details at end of presentation

Energy consumption by end use
• The three main end uses of fossil fuel are:
– Electric power plants
(~40 % of CO
2 emissions)
– Transportation (~23 % of
CO
2 emissions)
– Direct use of fuel (industrial processes and heating for buildings) (~37 % of CO
2 emissions)
World CO
2 emissions by fuel and end use
• So ~40 % CO
2 emissions from electricity, 60 % from fuels
Socolow and Pacala , 2006

Analysis: Kaya Identity

Kaya Identity
• Climate, Energy, Population, Economy
• Roger Pielke, Junior
– The Climate Fix Book
– The Climate Fix Lecture
– The Climate Fix Lecture Slides
– Fallacy of Magical Solutions

Energy and Economic Success
What countries are missing from this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)

Context: Growth
10
8
6
4
2
0
1850 1900 cement and gas flaring gas oil coal
1950 deforestation
2000

Mainstream approach – targets and timetables
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

Where do emissions come from?
People
Engage in economic activity that
Uses energy from
Carbon emitting generation
Population
GDP per person
Energy intensity of the economy
Carbon intensity of energy
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------------
P GDP TE
The “ Kaya Identity ” see IPCC WG 3
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

What tools do we have to reduce emissions?
P
GDP/P
TE/GDP
C/TE
Factor
Population
GDP per person
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Lever
Less people
Smaller economy
Increase efficiency
Switch energy sources
Approach to Policy
Population management
Limit generation of wealth
Do same or more with less energy
Generate energy with less emissions
Carbon emissions = C = P * GDP * TE * C
------------
P GDP TE
GDP
From R. Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix

So why has energy consumption increased so much?
Energy use = (population) * (GDP/person)
*( energy/unit GDP )
• GDP/person is considered the “ societal success ”
• Energy use increases have been driven by growth in population and GDP/person.

Pielke Jr. argues
• The need for technology to make solutions possible.
• Inequity of wealth, access to basic resources, desire for economic growth makes energy use an imperative
• Must go
– From, we use too much energy, fossil fuels are cheap
– To, we need more energy, fossil fuels are expensive

Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas

Context: Energy and Climate Change
• Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
CLIMATE CHANGE

Summary: Class 13, Winter 2015
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity

Summary: Class 13, Winter 2015
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity

Outline: Class 13, Winter 2015
• Energy Supply
• Energy Consumption
– Economic sectors
– Agriculture
– End use
• Analysis: Kaya Identity

Appendix: Supplementary Slides
• Details on coal, oil and natural gas
• Details on sectors
• Details on agriculture
• Details on end use
• Interesting and complex summary graphic from Department of Energy
• Air quality and aerosols
• Responses to manage emissions

In what forms do we consume energy?
• Fossil fuels:
– Coal
– Oil
– Natural gas
• Other:
– Nuclear
– Hydro
– Renewables
(mostly biomass)
– ‘ Hydrogen ’
Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

Energy sources: Coal
• Emits most CO
2 fossil fuels per unit energy of all
• Accounts for ~45% of world CO
2 emissions (2013, IEA)
• Used mostly for electricity and for home heating (especially in developing nations)
• Coal burning emits significant amounts of sulfur, nitrogen and particulate matter
• Proven reserves are very high

Energy sources: Oil
• Emits ~75 % of coal CO
2 unit energy.
emissions per
• Accounts for ~35 % of world CO
2 emissions (2013, IEA)
• Dominates transportation (cars), but also used for home/building heating
• Proven reserves of conventional oil are small number of decades
• After that, unconventional oil (fracking, tar sands etc.) many decades
• U.S. dependency on imported oil has been a major national security concern
Fracking has changed the whole notion of supply and
“peak oil”

Energy sources: Natural gas
• Least polluting of the fossil fuels: emits ‘ only ’ ~60 % of coal CO
2 per unit energy
• Accounted for ~20% of world CO
2 emissions (2013, IEA)
• Used for electricity generation and home heating (same as coal)
• Proven reserves with fracking are large
Methane Leakage and Fracking

Details on Sectors

Transportation sector
U.S. energy consumption by sector
• Sector with fastest growing CO in US
2 emissions
• Dominated by oil and road transport
• Accounts for ~23 % of worldwide and ~32 % of
US CO
2 emissions
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Residential and Commercial: Buildings
U.S. energy consumption by sector
• Both residential and commercial (stores, municipalities, etc.)
• Mostly electricity, except for fuel use for space heating
• Accounts for ~39 % of US energy use.
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Industrial sector
• Includes mining, refining, factories, etc.
• The fraction of energy used by this sector generally decreases as countries become more developed.
• Also includes agriculture…
U.S. energy consumption by sector
U.S. industrial energy consumption by fuel
EIA Annual Energy Review, 2006

Details on agriculture

Agriculture: Livestock
• 2006 report of Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the UN:
– “ The livestock sector emerges as one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.
”
• Important economic sector:
– Employs > billion people (mostly poor)
– Occupies 30 % of Earth ’ s land surface through grazing (26 %) and feed production
• 33 % of arable land for feed production

Agriculture: Livestock
• Increasing demand for livestock products (meat, dairy) is one of main drivers of deforestation
– 70 % of deforested land in Amazon is occupied by pastures.
– Feedcrops cover most of remaining
30 %.
– Livestock-induced deforestation emits ~0.65 GtC per year (compared to ~7 GtC from total fossil fuel use and ~2 GtC total deforestation)
• Livestock demand increasing rapidly with increasing world wealth (India, China). Should more than double by 2050.

Details of End Use

Energy consumption by end use: Electricity
• Two thirds of world electricity production comes from fossil fuels
• One third from hydro and nuclear power

Cost of Electricity
Cost of electricity in US in 2002
Electricity generation by source,
U.S., 2006
Source: Nathan Lewis, 2009
• Coal is cheapest and most used source of electricity in US!
• Solar Photovoltaic (PV) rather expensive
What is changing in this balance ?

Energy consumption by end use: Direct fuel use
• ‘ Direct fuel use ’ :
– Transportation (oil)
– Heating in buildings
– Industrial processes
• Dominated by oil
• No real alternatives for transportation fuels
– Biofuels do not mitigate
CO
2 emission
– Future switch to renewable-powered hydrogen and/or electric cars?
Direct Fuel Use
Pacala and Socolow, 2006

Summary graphic from Department of Energy

Summary Points: U.S. Energy

Air quality and aerosols

Aerosols, Fossil Fuels and Radiative Balance
• Burning of fossil fuels is important source of particulate matter (aerosols), which helps cool climate by:
– Scattering radiation
– Seeding clouds
• Cleaning up ‘ dirty coal ’ might thus not be good for climate…

Responses to manage emissions
• What are the responses that make sense?
– Regulation
– Life time responsibility for product – the coke can
– Improve use of current resources – efficiency
– Integrate development and climate change - adaptation
• What might motivate those responses?
– Potential costs
– Make the cost right … do not deny “ use ”
– Cost of inefficiency
– Social justice issues
• What might hinder those responses?
– Cost – benefit
– Lack of flexibility
– Social justice issues
– Economy versus environment