Five Fallacies
about Crime and Punishment
Adam Gelb, Director
Public Safety Performance Project
Five Fallacies
Fallacy
The crime and incarceration rates are determined
by broad social, economic and demographic forces
Reality
Sentencing and corrections policy choices are
the primary driver
www.pewtrusts.org
www.pewstates.org
Wide Variance in Growth of Time Served
Drove Prison Growth
Change 1990-2009
ME
WA
+27%
MT
ND
+54%
MN
OR
+32%
ID
IL*
+51%
CO
MO
KS
OH
IN
+83%
NM
KY
+32%
+51% VA
+91%
+86%
** +26%
NC
MA
RI
CT
SC
AR
+33%
+69%
MS
TX
VT
NH
WV
++12
12%
%
TN -6%
-14%
OK
AZ
PA
-25%
UT
+33%
+79%
+32%
+11%
-6%
+17%
CA
+2 %
MI
IA
NE
NV
-14%
+18%
-24%
WY
NY
WI
+38%
SD
+7 %
LA
AL
+28%
GA
NJ
* +8 %
DE
+75%
MD
-9%
DC
FL
AK
+166%
HI
-15%
Increases
Decreases
>50%
0-25%
26-50%
No Data
* The most recent year of
available data is 2005
0-25%
www.pewstates.org
1 in 100 Behind Bars
1 in 31 Under Correctional Control
1925
2008
1 in 13 State Dollars
$19
Billion
$52
Billion
1991
2008
1 in 5 Justice Department Dollars
Prison Spending
Other DOJ Spending
1980
2008
Policy Choices Drive Growth
www.pewtrusts.org
Five Fallacies
Fallacy
If you reduce the incarceration rate,
the crime rate will go up
Reality
States can have less crime AND less imprisonment
www.pewtrusts.org
A Tale of Two States
Prison Population
120,000
100,000
Crime Rate
FL
NY
Florida
80,000
60,000
New York
40,000
20,000
0
www.pewstates.org
Less Prison, Less Crime 2008 - 2013
States with the 10 largest
increases
in imprisonment
States with the 10 largest
decreases
in imprisonment
-8%
-13%
average
crime
average
crime
Five Fallacies
Fallacy
The public wants to lock ‘em up
and throw away the key
Reality
Polls show broad support for alternatives for
nonviolent offenders
www.pewtrusts.org
Underlying Attitudes: Prison Less Cost-Effective
“Which comes closer to your point of view?”
Statement A
“One out of every 100 American adults is in prison. That’s
too many, and it costs too much. There are more effective,
less expensive alternatives to prison for non-violent
offenders and expanding those alternatives is the best way
to reduce the crime rate.”
Statement B
“People who commit crimes belong behind
bars, end of story. It may cost a lot of money
to run prisons, but it would cost society
more in the long run if more criminals were
on the street.”
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Opinion on Sentencing and Corrections Policy in America
Underlying Attitudes: Shift Resources
“Some of the money that we are spending on
locking up low-risk, non-violent inmates should
be shifted to strengthening community
corrections programs like probation and
parole.”
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Opinion on Sentencing and Corrections Policy in America
Underlying Attitudes: Stronger for Juveniles
Statement A: Save costly facilities for
Statement B: Pay whatever it takes
higher risk juvenile offenders and
to lock up juvenile offenders and
create alternatives to incarceration
keep communities safe.
for lower-risk offenders.
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Attitudes on the Juvenile Justice System in Georgia
Technology – Best Testing Message
An effective probation and parole system would
use new technologies to monitor where
offenders are and what they are doing, require
them to pass drug tests, and require they either
keep a job or perform community service.
STRONGLY AGREE
TOTAL AGREE
74%
92%
www.pewstates.org
Georgia: Revise Sentencing for Drug Offenders
“Reduce sentences for those convicted of drug possession and invest the
savings into programs that require offenders to participate in substance
abuse treatment and pass regular drug tests or face penalties.”
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Attitudes on Crime and Punishment in Georgia
Increase Felony Theft Thresholds
“Many states have a law that stealing property valued over $500 is a
felony crime, and thus the offenders face at least one year in prison.
Some states have raised this felony threshold from $500 to $1,000
[or] $1,500. Do you favor or oppose a proposal to raise the
threshold to $1,000 [or] $1,500 in your state?”
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Opinion on Sentencing and Corrections Policy in America
Support Remains in Face of Strong Argument
Supporters...say these laws were passed
decades ago. Now electronics cost more
than $500. If someone steals one, they
shouldn’t be locked up at a cost to taxpayers
of thousands per year. The threshold should
be raised to at least $1,000 [or] $1,500.
Opponents...say that it is the wrong
time to go soft on crime in this bad
economy. People who steal make our
communities less safe, and they should
be locked up.
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Opinion on Sentencing and Corrections Policy in America
Voters Prefer Shorter Prison Term + Supervision
www.pewtrusts.org
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Public Opinion on Sentencing and Corrections Policy in America
Voters Prefer Shorter Prison Term + Supervision
Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Forthcoming Report
www.pewtrusts.org
“…Conservatives are known for being tough on
crime, but we must also be tough on criminal
justice spending…”
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
Newt Gingrich, American Solutions for Winning the Future
Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform
Edwin Meese III, former U.S. Attorney General
William J. Bennett, former Education Secretary, “Drug Czar”
Asa Hutchinson, former U.S. Attorney, DEA Administrator
Pat Nolan, Justice Fellowship, former CA House Republican leader
David Keene, American Conservative Union
Richard Viguerie, ConservativeHQ.com
Tony Perkins, Family Research Council
Ward Connerly, American Civil Rights Institute
John J. DiIulio, Jr., University of Pennsylvania
Five Fallacies
Fallacy
Policy reformers will suffer at the ballot box
Reality
State and national leaders from both parties
are finding solutions
www.pewtrusts.org
Diverse States Pursuing Justice Reform
ME
WA
MT
ND
MN
OR
NY
WI
SD
ID
MI
WY
PA
IA
NE
VT
OH
NV
IL
IN
NH
WV
UT
VA
CO
CA
MA
MO
KS
KY
NC
RI
TN
OK
AZ
NM
CT
SC
AR
NJ
MS
TX
AL
GA
DE
LA
MD
DC
FL
AK
Comprehensive Reforms
Limited Reforms
HI
Reforms in Progress
Bipartisan State Votes on Justice Reform
Total Yeas
5,891
Total Nays
480
Mississippi Reforms Projected to Save $266 Million
www.pewcenteronthestates.com
1 in 110 Behind Bars
1 in 35 Under Correctional Control
1925
2008 2013
Different Routes, Same Destination
Conservatives
Liberals
Limited Government
Fiscal Discipline
Personal Responsibility
Victim Restoration
Family Preservation
Offender Rehabilitation
Social Justice
Root Causes
Civil Rights
Community Revitalization
Welcome to
Justice
Reinvestment
Strategies
Pop. 2.3 million and dropping
www.pewtrusts.org
Five Fallacies
Fallacy
Tight budgets are the primary driving force
behind sentencing and corrections reforms
Reality
State successes, public support, credible prison
alternatives are the foundation
www.pewtrusts.org
www.pewtrusts.org
Alternatives: Hawaii’s HOPE
47%
46%
Usual Probation
HOPE Probation
21%
13%
Arrested
Used Drugs
www.pewtrusts.org
Five Fallacies
about Crime and Punishment
Adam Gelb, Director
Public Safety Performance Project