OPPORTUNITIES FOR
LATIN AMERICA?
THE WAR ON TERROR
•
•
•
•
•
•
U.S.-imposed rules of the game
Co-existence with geo-economic game
Ideological divisions: left, right, center
Prevalence of democratic discourse
Focus on “strategic options”
Unavailable alternatives:
– Bolivarian dream of collective unity
– Rule of international law, organizations
1. TURN TO THE NORTH
• Vicente Fox (Mexico)
– Hopes for immigration reform
– NAFTA constraints
– Opposition throughout Latin America
• Comrades in the War on Terror
– Colombia
– Guatemala
• The FTA Club
–
–
–
–
–
Chile [special case]
Central America + DR
Peru
Colombia
Panama
2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY
• Brazil (Lula + Dilma)
– Grandeza brasileira
– Role in Haiti
– Resistance to FTAA
• Venezuela (Chávez)
–
–
–
–
–
ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)
International assistance programs
Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries
Denunciations of Bush and USA
Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)
3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS?
• Cuba (Castros)
– Armed rebellion no longer a path
– Fatigue of revolutionary society
– Institutionalization of charisma
• Venezuela (Chávez)
– “Socialism for the 21st Century”
– Linkage to Cuba and Fidel
• Bolivia (Morales)
– Indigenismo
– Politics of ethnic reivindicación
4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY
• Brazil (Lula)
– WTO
– Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21)
– G3, G5
• Venezuela (Chávez)
– Non-Aligned Movement
– UN Security Council
– Petroleum exporters (including Iran)
5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE
• Europe
–
–
–
–
Divisions over Iraq
Concern about EU future
FTAs with Mexico, Chile
Distancing from/by Spain
• Asia
– Withdrawal of Japan
– Eruption of “China fever”
– PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela,
Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile,
“friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba
• Iran?
– Really?
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
• Exports to China, 2008:
–
–
–
–
–
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
Cuba
9.0%
12.4%
4.8%
0.7%
18.4%
• Liberation from IMF:
– Argentina
2005 ($9.8 bn)
– Brazil
2005 ($15.5 bn)
– IMF “relegated to sidelines”
POLITICAL DIMENSIONS
• Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies
• Resuscitation of Cuba
• Regional organizations w/o USA:
– Rio Group (1986, 23 members)
– Latin American Summit on Integration and
Development (2008, 33 members)
– CELAC (2010, 33 members)
– Ibero-American Summits (1991)
– MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)
– UNASUR (2005)
BILATERAL DIMENSIONS
•
•
•
•
Argentina: “a distant relationship”
Brazil: “getting better all the time”
Chile: “cooperative friendship”
Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain
allies?”
DISTINCTIONS?
• Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central
America/Caribbean
• Political A: Right vs. Left
• Political B: Moderate vs. Radical
• U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?
THE BENEFITS OF
INATTENTION?