Technology and Society
Dancing with Robots
Learning outcomes
By the end of the session students should
be able to:
• Understand the importance of technology
as a driver for change and its close
relationship with society
• Explain some of the key trends and visions
of the future for technology
• Discuss how managers respond to these
trends and manage this uncertainty
What is technology?
Not one definition…
1. the application of practical or mechanical
sciences to industry or commerce
2. the scientific methods or devices used in a
particular field: the latest aircraft technology
[Greek tekhnologia systematic treatment]
Collins Essential English Dictionary 2nd Edition
2006, HarperCollins Publisher
Technological trends
Technology is:
• Uncertain - there are always a variety of solutions to
perform a specific task
• Cumulative - changes build on previous knowledge
– “Technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more
technology possible.” ALVIN TOFFLER, Future Shock, 1970.
(Harper, S&S)
• Systemic - technologies cannot be considered in
isolation of the supporting technologies that make them
and the people and their technique
• Dynamic - constant changing of capital stock and new
inventions driven by the ‘competitive nexus’
(Grubler, 1998, Pg 21)
Critical technologies for the
future
• NBIC
– Nanotechnology (molecular manufacture) e.g. kills
cancer cells, cosmetics, water proofing, ultra strong
structures
– Biotechnology (e.g. genetic manipulation diagnosing breast cancer, enhanced food yield)
– Information technology (e.g. enhanced
communication, Data access, manipulation and and
retrieval)
– Cognitive science – the science of intelligence (e.g.
the brain as a computer)
• GRAIN – genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence,
nanotechnology
Four general tendencies of
technology are:
• Increasing variety and complexity
– e.g. Number of car components
– E.g. 1000s varieties of mobile phone
– e.g. Moores Law – exponential growth of computer power
• Increasing division of labour specially and functionally
– E.g. specialities in developing drugs – how many?
• Increasing interdependence, interrelatedness and
externalities
– E.g. Interconnections between components and need for
external support
• Increasing scale output and productivity
– E.g. mass production, mass customisation
Increasing complexity
Law of accelerating returns
• When ever a technology approaches some kind
of barrier, a new technology will be invented to
allow us to overcome this barrier
• “This will lead to a technological change so rapid
and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric
of human history”
• Change is exponential
• Immortal software-based humans and ultra-high
Levels of intelligence that expand outward in the
universe at the speed of light
Kurzweil (2005)
Moore’s Law
Kondratiev long wave
Steam engine
P
R
D
Railway
Steel
Electrical
engineering
and
chemistry
Petrochemicals Information
Automobiles
Technology
I
Wave 1
1800
Wave 2
1850
Wave 3
1900
Wave 4
1950
Wave 5
2000
P = Prosperity
R = Recession
D= Depression
I = Improvement
12
The six epochs of the universe
Epoch 1 : Physics and chemistry (information in atomic
structures)
Epoch 2 : Biology (information in DNA)
Epoch 3:
Epoch 4 : Technology Hardware and Design
Epoch 5 : Merger of technology and human intelligence
are integrated into the exponentially expanding human
technology base
Epoch 6 : The Universe wakes up (patterns and matter
and energy in the universe become saturates with
intelligent processes and knowledge)
Corderio, based on R.Kurzweil (2005)
Convergence
e.g. Breast cancer gene diagnosis
e.g. databases
The emergence of ‘Technological
Singularity’
• Merger of Technology and Artificial Intelligence
– Within quarter of a century, non-biological intelligence will match
the range and subtlety of human intelligence
– It will then soar past it because of information based technology,
instantaneous sharing of knowledge
– Intelligent nano-robots will be deeply integrated in our bodies our
brains and environments overcoming pollution and poverty,
providing vastly extended longevity, full immersion virtual reality
incorporating all of the senses and vastly enhanced human
intelligence (Kurzweil (2005)
“Within thirty years we will have the technological means to
create super human intelligence. Shortly after the human era
will be ended” (Vinge, 1993)
Business responses
• Complexity:
– Increased nature of outsourcing of expertise
– Collaborative product development
– Open innovation (Chesborough, 2003)
• Systems of development become as
complex as the products that are
developed (co-evolution)
• New product applications and processes
Open Innovation
Societal responses to
Technology
Technology shapes society and
society shapes technology.
Societal Changes
• Economic growth engines (Drucker, 2007;
Schumpter, 1934)
• Improvement of standard of living and quality of
life – clean water, sewers, flushing toilets,
medicines, entertainment. This had been called
‘appropriate’ technology. (Bhalla, 1978)
• Activity for human endeavour – employment
• Improved communication and information
• More ‘leisure’ time?...
Societal Impacts
‘The most important and urgent problems
of the technology of today are no longer
the satisfactions of the primary needs or of
archetypal wishes, but the reparation of
the evils and damages by technology of
yesterday.’
(Gabor,1970)
Societal Impacts
‘By his very success in inventing laboursaving devices, modern man has
manufactured an abyss of boredom that
only the privileged classes in earlier
civilizations have ever fathomed.’
Mumford, L (1951)
Societal Impacts
• Our way of life has been influenced by the
way technology has developed. In future, it
seems to me, we ought to try to reverse
this and so develop our technology that it
meets the needs of the sort of life we wish
to lead.
Prince Philip,1984
Predictability of
Technology?
Wild cards, chance discoveries?
Serendipity?
There are many wild card events that have taken place in
the development of technology
“Chance favours the prepared mind”
Louis Pasteur
Penicillin
"When I woke up just after dawn on September 28, 1928, I certainly didn't
plan to revolutionize all medicine by discovering the world's first antibiotic,
or bacteria killer," Fleming would later say, "But I guess that was exactly
what I did."
Wild Cards…
Eg. LSD
"It is true that my discovery of LSD was a
chance discovery, but it was the outcome of
planned experiments and these experiments
took place in the framework of systematic
pharmaceutical, chemical research. It could
better be described as serendipity." LSD found
on a fungus grown on wheat
Can we anticipate technology
diffussion?
What happened to the:
• The paperless office?
Did we anticipate the success of the:
• Home computer
• Social Networking
Technology Adoption Cycle
Rodgers, 1962
Technology Backlashes
Back lashes
• The Luddites
– ‘someone with a fear of
technology’
• Neo-luddism:
e.g. anarchists,
– eco-facists
E.g. GM Crops
Is that fear irrational or
justiied?
Management responses
Open Innovation – Technology
Pull
How do technology managers
manage the future?
• Technology Strategy
– Adopting a strategy towards technology
including selection of product and process
technologies to develop
• Foresight and Futures
– Technology mapping, Back casting
– Convergence Trend analysis and
environmental scanning
– Scenario planning
How do managers manage the
future?
• Innovation and Product Development;
– Products that change us socially have the
greatest impact e.g. car, internet
– Increasing use of collaborating: User driven
development, mass customisation
• Improving internal efficiencies
– Business intelligence
– Mobile technologies
• Product and Service Opportunities
Visions of the Future of
Technology
Timelines for the future
Example: BT Futures Group
http://www.btplc.com/Innovation/News/timeli
ne/index.htm
Summary
• Technologies
• Evidently creativity plays a major part of
the fullfilment of these
• Managers use a variety of approaches
including outsourcing,
Further Reading and References
• Bernard and Jones (1996), ‘Technology and
Convergence’, ‘The economic journal, Vol 106, Issue
437, pp1037 -1044
• Chesborough H.W., (2003), ‘The era of open
innovation’,MIT Sloan Management Review
• Cordeiro, JS (2006) ‘Technological Evolution’, in ‘Seeing
things through New Eyes’ edited by Wagner, World
Future Society
• Jensen, D., 1995, Listening to the Land: Conversations
about Nature, Culture, and Eros, Sierra Club Books,
ISBN 0-87156-417-3 Republished 2004 by Chelsea
Green Publishing Company
• Jones S (2007), ‘Against Technology’, Routledge
Further Reading and References
• Gabor, D., Innovations: Scientific Technological and Social, 1970.
(S&S)
• Grubler, (1998), ‘Technology and Global Change’, Cambridge
University Press
• Kurzwel, R (2005), ‘The singularity is near: when humans transcend
biology. New York: Viking. http:// www.singularity.com
• Mumford,L.,(1951) ‘The Conduct of Life’, "The Challenge of
Renewal,“, Columbia
• Toffler, A., (1970), ‘Future Shock’,Harper,
• Rogers, E. M. (1962), Diffusion of Innovations, Glencoe: Free Press.
• White, R. (1990), Environmental Science and Technology, 1990.
(S&S)