Energy-Efficiency Technologies in Northeast
Asia and the Global Energy Demand SRES
Scenarios
Nan Zhou
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
14 May 2005
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Presentation Contents
• Energy-Efficiency Programs and
Technologies in Northeast Asia
• The Impact of Energy Efficient
Technologies in Building Sector
• The Implementation of Energy Efficiency
Programs in China
• The Disaggregation of the SRES
Scenarios : China Buildings Sector
Example
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency
Policies and Regulations by Country
Country/
Region
国家/
地区
Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency Policy
综合性能源效率政策
中国
National Energy Conservation Prospect 2001-2005
Japan
日本
Energy Conservation Law, Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming:
2002-2010
Korea
韩国
Second Energy Rationalisation Energy Plan 1999-2003 (10% saving in 2003)
Chinese
Taipei
台湾
Energy efficiency and conservation programme:28% reduction in the energy
intensity of the GDP by 2020 (16% in 2010)
Russia
Energy efficient economy 2002-2005, target of 100Mtoe; federal law "On energy
俄罗斯 efficiency" of 1996
China
IEA energy efficiency\energy efficiency update\jp.pdf
Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 2004
•Comprehensive Energy Efficiency policies exists in each country
•5 major countries or region were addressed here.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Sectoral Types of Energy-Efficiency
Technologies
Buildings
Transportation
Electricity and Heat
Supply
建筑
交通
发电
1. Hybrid Electric
Drivetrains
2. Low-Weight Structural
Materials
3. Direct Injection Gasoline
and Diesel Engines
4. Fuel Cells
5. Aircraft Technology
1. CHP
2. District heating
3. Renewables
4. Nuclear
5. Fuel Cells
6. Gas Turbine
7. Gas Engine
8. Gas Combined Cycle
1. Envelope
2. HVAC
3. Home
appliances
4. Office
equipment
Industry
工业
1. Motors/ Motor
Systems
2. Boilers
3.Transformers
4. Process equipment
(furnaces, kilns,
casters)
5.Industrial heating
systems
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Technology Targeted by Buildings
Programs
Home appliances
Country/
Region
Envelope
HVAC
Air
Refrigerat Lighting
Clothes Cooking
Condistione
or
Equipment Washers Equipment
rs
and Dryers
Water
Heaters
MS
VL
MS VL MS VL
VL
VS VL VS VL
China
Building codes for four
Minimum
different climate zones,stricter Standards
codes have been implemented
in a few regions.
Japan
Building Codes
Building
VS
Codes and
standard
Korea
Building Codes
Standards MS ML MS ML MS ML
VL
& Labeling
Program
Chinese
Taipei
Mandatory Building Codes for Building
both Residential and
Codes
commercial buildings
MS
VL MS VL MS VL
O
VL O
VL
MS
Russia
Codes for residential buildings Building
and public buildings but not codes
commercial buildings
MS
O
cs
O
O
MS O
MS O
O
O
MS cl
MS
VL
O
VS
VL
VS VL
MS ML MS VL
VL
MS
Office
equipment
VL O
cl
VS
VL
MS
VL
VL O
MS
MS = Mandatory Standard VS = Voluntary Standard ML = Mandatory Labelling VL = Voluntary Labelling
cs = considering standard cl = considering labelling O = no standard or labelling, none under consideration
source: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 2004
2. APEC Energy Stamdard and Labeling Information Network : http://www.apec-esis.org/economy.asp?id=16
3: World Energy Council Survey on Energy Efficiency Policy Measures
4. korea energy management corporation：http://www.kemco.or.kr/english/sub03_energyefficiency.asp?defmenu=3
5. IEA Energy Efficiency Update
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
VL
O
Industry Energy-Efficiency Policies
and Regulations by Country
Country/region 国家/地区
China
中国
Korea
韩国
Chinese Taipei 台湾
Japan
日本
Russia
俄罗斯
Industry
1. VA (2 steel companies)
2. Equipment and system efficiency standards for boilers,
transformers, furnaces, heat transport systems, heaters, cooling supply
systems, fans and networkpumps, etc..
3. Enery auditing
4. ESCOs
1. VA
2. Energy Audits for industrial buildings and equipment
3. ESCOs
1. VA
2. Fiscal incentives
3. Product Efficiency Standards
4. Energy Audits :Mandatory and free for the consumers (100%
subsidies)
1. Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment (VA)
2. Energy Audits
3. Energy Conservation Assistance Law
4. ESCOs
Energy Audits
source: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 2004
2. Energy Efficiency Indicators A Study of Energy Efficiency Indicators in APEC Economies, APERC,2001
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies
in Building Sector
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Advanced Insulation Technologies
and Window Technologies
Envelope Insulation
Advanced Window Technologies
Technologies
Improve insulation in roof, walls,
and floor with low U values
New types of windows based on
advanced materials
Technologies description
Thermal insulation, e.g., mineral • New windows using advanced
wool
materials with low thermal
conductivity
• New windows with built-in solar
cells
In progress, new materials under continuous improvements
development with lower thermal
conductivity
Zero-energy house—new houses Close to zero net loss through
Retrofit existing houses
windows
Status
RD$D:Goals and
Chanllenges
Benefits and Costs
Cost
Efficiency
Releability
Energy Quality
Environmental Impact
Economic Impact
Customer Preference
Moderate
Yes
High
Acceptable
Low
Acceptable
Depending on the cost and
payback time
Perhaps High
Yes
Acceptable
High
Low
Moderate
Depends on cost
Sorce: Energy End-Use Technologies for the 21st Centry, WEC,2004
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficiency
Appliances
China:
Cumulative saving from efficient refrigerators by 2001 reached 1.17 billion kWh or RMB 670 million
at an electricity price of RMB 0.57 per kWh.
Japan: The energy efficiency standards adopted in the framework of the 1993 Energy Conservation Law calls
•
•
•
•
•
•
for the improvement in energy efficiency of:
5-6% for single-purpose air-conditioners and combined air-conditioners and cooling units over the FY
1992 results by the end of September 1998.
3-7% for fluorescent lamps by 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.
5-25% for televisions by FY 1998 compared to that of FY 1991.
3% for copying machines by FY 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.
30% for electronic computers by FY 2000 compared to that in FY 1992.
for magnetic disk units : 60% for single disk units and 80% for multi-disk drives by FY 2000 compared to
that of FY 1992.
Russia: By retrofitting general-purpose industrial equipment such as motors, boilers and industrial heating
systems with more energy-efficient technologies. Project investment are usually paid back in less than 3
years, and it is estimated that 8.7 Mtoe will be saved annually in 2002-2005, equivalent to 5.8 % of final
total energy consumption in 2000.
Chinese Taipei:
•
•
•
Implementation of efficiency standards for electrical appliances has resulted in an average annual peak
load power saving of 130 MW.
The voluntary efficiency labels certify that products are 10 % to 30 % more efficient than required by the
MEPS.
The energy factor of an advanced energy-efficient refrigerator was 23 % higher than that of a baseline
model. It can improve refrigerator efficiency by another 30 to 40 %.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Impact of Energy Efficiency standards
in Building Sector —Building Codes
Japan: stricter application of building standards for
heat insulation was enforced in April 2001. The new
standards could save 20% of energy use for air
conditioning and are expected to cost around 1
million Yen(approximately $9,000) per house.
Russia: Energy consumption in these buildings is
targeted to decline by 14 to 16 % by 2005 compared
to 2000, with total energy savings of 3.2 Mtoe in
2002-2005 and 5.8 Mtoe in 2006-2010. The
corresponding cut in government energy bills should
amount to 500 million roubles (US$17 million) in
2002-2005 and 3.1 billion roubles (US$100 million)
in 2006-2010.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Feasibility Study of The Impact of Energy Efficient
Technologies in Commercial Building
Energy-Efficient Alternatives Considered for a Proposed Demonstration Building
ID Conditions simulated
heat
transfer
through the
envelope
cooling
equipment
efficiency
Explanation
1
2
Base Case
Wall/Roof color
3
4
5
6
Recessed Windows
Window Overhangs
Daylighting (Bi-level
Switches)
Daylighting (Automatic)
Window setback of 0.3 m into the wall.
0.60 m Overhang added to all windows.
Simple two-step daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of 200 Lux
to simulate use of bi-level lighting switches.
Continuously dimming daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of
200 Lux.
7
High Efficiency Lighting
8
Low-E Windows
9
10
Reduce Window Height
Staged chillers
11
12
Lighting intensity reduced from 14 to 8.3 W/m2.
Windows are changed to Low-E glass with U-value = 0.29 W/m2K ,
SHGC = 0.28, and TVIS=0.41.
Window height is reduced from Base Case 2.1m to 1.65m
Plant uses 2 small chillers that can be staged depending on cooling load,
instead of a single central chiller.
Chiller COP increased by 10% from 4.0 to 4.4.
Central fans are run at night to precool the building down to 24 C.
13
Increased Chiller COP
Night Ventilation
(Mechanical)
Night Ventilation (Natural) Windows are left open at night to precool the building down to 24 C.
14
Combined Measure
Wall and roof absorptivity changed from 0.7 (grey) to 0.3 (off-white)
Includes all the above strategies except for 4, 6, and 12.
•The USDOE and China’s MOST joint energy-efficient demonstration building with U.S. technologies
•cross-shaped base building were determined and computer simulations used.
For more information on this phase of the project, please refer to the web site for Accord 21 (American Chinese Coalition Organized for Responsible
Development) , the umbrella organization led by NRDC to implement this effort (http://www.nrdc.org/china/ebinx.html).
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Energy Use and Cost Saving of
Building Shape
Cross-Shaped Base Case
Square-Shaped Base Case
Difference
% Difference
Heat
Load
Heat
Gas
Cool
Elec
Fan
Elec
Total
Elec
Total
Energy Cost
MWh
MWh
MWh
MWh
MWh
(‘000 Yuan)
161.6
172.2
10.6
6.2
237.2 160.6 177.3 1112.1
251.6 180.3 212.4 1167.4
14.4 19.7 35.1
55.3
5.7
10.9 16.5
4.7
645.4
675.7
30.2
4.5
The shape of a building has a definite impact on its energy use
characteristics. In a heating-dominant situation, a compact shape helps to
reduce heat losses through the building shell and can improve the building’s
energy efficiency.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy and Energy Cost Saving between
Base Case and Combined Measure
•The energy cost savings from incorporating these measures into the Base Case design are
estimated to be from 40 to 43%.
•cross-shaped design and the orientation can save an additional 5% or more of the energy costs.
•The total source energy reductions is: about 52% of the electricity savings or about 41% for
combined source energy for natural gas and electricity.
Site energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the building; source energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power
plant to provide that site energy to the consumer.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Impact on Energy Efficient
Fluorescent Lamp
The life-cycle cost analysis for Chinese fluorescent lamps
Lamp group
18-20 watt
30 watt
36-40 watt
Options
AEC
T12
T10
T9
T8
T12
T10
T9
T8
T12
T10
T9
T8
kWh/ (y)
86.4
76.9
74.2
68.3
129.6
120.4
116.8
111.5
172.8
159.1
153.3
143.1
AEC
difference
kWh/(y)
9.5
12.19
18.11
9.25
12.85
18.11
13.66
19.52
29.74
Lifetime
(y)
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
Elec.
Elec.
Elec. Cost LCC △LCC Payback
difference
price
Cost
(y)
(￥/kWh) (￥/year) (￥/year) (￥)
(￥)
0.84
72.64
113
0.84
64.65
7.99
103
9.73
0.21
0.84
62.39
10.25
100 12.63
0.2
0.84
57.42
15.22
93
19.41
0.16
0.84
108.96
185
0.84
101.19
7.78
174 10.88
0.22
0.84
98.16
10.8
170 15.44
0.19
0.84
93.74
15.23
163 22.26
0.16
0.84
145.29
244
0.84
133.8
11.49
227 16.89
0.15
0.84
128.88
16.41
219 24.51
0.12
0.84
120.28
25.01
206 38.08
0.1
Modest improvements in efficiency in a large market could lead to large aggregate reductions. In the case
of China’s 2003 minimum energy efficiency standard for fluorescent lamps, these reductions could
amount to 80 TWh in electricity use and almost 100 million tons in CO2 emissions reductions in the next
10 years.
Three most widely used lamp groups are chosen here for further analysis, each characterized by its length (and associated
wattage ranges): 600 mm (18–20 W), 900 mm (30 W), and 1200 mm (36–40 W) lamps.
These products are distinguished and referenced by their tube diameters (T8–T12); typically the thinner lamps are more energy
efficient.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Less than
3 months
A Case Study of the Impact of CHP
Table : Office Building DER-CAM Results
Case
DoNothing
Installed Installed Installation Electricity
Capacity Technology
Cost
Purchased
kW
k$
k$
0
DER
300
DER
with
CHP
300
For DER
Gas only
275.3
0
42.1
317.4
317.4
36.4
125.2
112
28.8
266
302.5
-16.2%
-4.7%
6.1
58.5
83.8
129.4
6.7
219.9
278.4
-30.7
-12.3%
4.7
0
0
NG-00300
NGABSHX00300
(k$)
January Peak NG Loads with CHP (kW)
Pay Back
Year
a
July Peak Electric Loads with CHP (kW)
Sport facility
1
1
electricity from CHP
Total
Cost
k$
Energy Cost Overall Cost
Reduction Reduction
%
%
Energy
Cost
k$
Gas
Heat recovery for cooling is not
economic for sports facility
Retail
3
Hotel
2
Hospital
cooling offset by waste heat recovery
utility electricity purchase
NG decrement from CHP
Office
NG for heating
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
The peak load shift effect of prototype building
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Economic and Environmental
Effect of Prototype Buildings
1,400
reduction 22.7%
Macrogrid
On-site generators
On-site heating
1,000
800
600
reduction 22.7% reduction 32.4%
reduction 34.3%
Figure: The effect of
prototype building carbon
emission reduction
reduction 34.4%
400
200
0
DoDER
Nothing w ith
CHP
Office
1,200
DoDER
Nothing w ith
CHP
Hospital
DoDER
Nothing w ith
CHP
Hotel
DoDER
Nothing w ith
CHP
Retail
1,000
DoDER
Nothing w ith
CHP
Sport Facility
cost saving 32%
pay back year
3.3 years
Direct Gas Use
Gas for DER Fuel
electricity purchase
investment costs
Annual costs (k$)
carbon emission (t/a)
1,200
800
600
cost saving 12%
pay back year
4.7 years
cost saving 21%
pay back year
3.4 years
cost saving 23%
pay back year
3.0 years
Figure: The economic effect
of prototype building
cost saving 11%
pay back year
6.8 years
400
200
0
Base
CHP
Office
Base
CHP
Hospital
Base
CHP
Hotel
Base
CHP
Retail
Base
CHP
Sport facility
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy Efficiency Programs in China
With International Cooperation
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
LBNL China Activities
Data Acq.
&
Analysis
Technical
Assistance
Buildings
Equipment
•Minimum Standards
•Voluntary Energy Labeling
•Residential Energy
Consumption Survey
•Rural Household Energy
Industry
Building Shell
•Energy Efficiency
Agreements
•Commercial and
Residential Codes
•Motor Systems
Design
•Demonstration
Buildings
•BEST Tool
•Windows Labeling
Institution
&
Capacity
Bldg
Research
and
Policy
Advice
•Refining & Product
Quality
Cross-Cutting
•Shanghai ESCO Industry
•Energy Efficiency
Investment Analysis
•National Energy Strategy
Assessment
•Government Procurement
•Carbon Scenarios Study
•China Energy Databook
close work with China’s authorities for 10
years, since China first modernized their
standards and codes.
worked with government and
industrial partners to introduce
international best practice
publication of compiled China energy
and environmental data, and assistance
in creating government programs.
Energy and Emissions Savings
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Accomplishment To Date
• Buildings
– Appliance standards
-
10 mandatory equipment efficiency standards
Reach standard
– Energy efficiency labels
-
8 voluntary energy efficiency labeling specifications
Bilateral and regional harmonization
– Building codes
-
Residential and commercial buildings codes in 4 regions; window labeling
• Industry
– Industrial energy efficiency agreements
-
Pilot program in the iron & steel industry in Shandong; extending nationwide
– Motors systems optimization program
• Cross-Cutting
– China’s low-carbon future research
-
Creation of major new policy analysis tool
– Data compilation and analysis
-
6th Edition of China Energy Databook
– Government procurement
-
New (2005) mandatory policy designed on the US FEMP program
– Energy policy research and analysis
– Institution building
-
Beijing Energy Efficiency Center, Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
New technical basis for China’s appliance energy
efficiency standards and labeling programs
• Technology Transfer
– Techno-economic analysis for standards (DOE)
– Technical analysis for labeling (EPA)
• Methodology
— Engineering, Energy, Environmental, Finance, Social
Impact Modeling
• International Collaboration
— Harmonization of standards, labeling specifications
and test procedures (same test procedures and
product classification)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
External Power Supply Collaboration
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
China, US EPA, California Energy Commission,
Australia Greenhouse Office, EU Code of
Conduct
Agreement on new test procedure
China led testing program; one dataset created
Two international coordination meetings
Coordination on proposed specification and
product coverage
Attendance at stakeholder meetings
Joint announcement of program and joint USChina launch (1 January 2005)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China and Harmonization
•
•
•
China is the key global power supply player
– More than 50% of global power supply production
– Number of power supply-containing products in homes and
businesses is growing exponentially
– China is experiencing power shortages
Harmonization recognizes the global market
– China exports over half of its power supply production
– China is a major exporter of power supply-containing
products
Harmonization benefits
– Lower manufacturers’ costs
– Lower testing costs
– Lower program administration costs
– Reduced barriers to trade
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Potential Savings in China
•
Use of efficient power supplies in 12 major end-uses would reduce consumption
by 1.23 TWh (half-percent of total residential energy use) or $86 million in
consumer electricity charges
largest possible savings
1400
Electricity consumption with existing EPS
1200
Electricity consumption with efficient EPS
1000
GWh
800
600
400
200
0
s
C
om
r
te
u
p
r
ke
a
e
Sp
r
s
rs
to
ne
op
ne
er
i
t
t
e
o
o
n
p
g
n
h
i
o
ar
Ph
La
M
Pr
lP
h
l
r
s
t
e
C
D
s
te
C
C
y
le
kje
r
L
d
pu
n
e
I
t
or
at
om
C
B
C
PD
C
A
di
re
tC
d
ar
R
er
d
ea
(3 products not shown)
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Buildings: Training in Developing
New Building Codes
Improved New
Heating Zone
Residential
Building Code
Shanghai Commercial
Code
Commercial and
Government
Building Code
(national)
New Residential
Building Code
New Residential
Building Code
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Industrial Sector Is Extremely
Important in China
• The industrial sector represents 68% of all primary energy consumption in
China
• There is strong growth in industrial primary energy use
• China is the world’s largest producer of cement, steel, and ammonia and
in top-10 for production of aluminum, paper, and petroleum
• Industrial production is necessary
for China’s infrastructure
development: roads, buildings,
equipment
• High levels of industrial
production and energy use has
serious environmental
consequences including air
pollution, water pollution,
industrial waste, and greenhouse
gas emissions contributing to
global warming
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Efficiency Policy for Iron & Steel Industry
General Economic and Political
Environment
China’s
Energy Efficiency
Programs of the
1980s
Planned Economy
Voluntary
Agreement
Sector Target
Policy
Industrial
Sector Policies
in Developed
Countries
Market Economy
Iron & steel sector largest in world; consumes 13% of
total energy in China
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Comparable Energy Intensity
(kgce/t steel)
Potential Energy Savings: Shandong
Province Pilot and China Steel Sector
950
Jigang BAU
Jigang EEA
Laigang BAU
Laigang EEA
China average
International advanced
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
2000
2005
2010
The pilot encompassed two major plants in Shandong. Both were already better than the China
average. Both plants agreed to increase their efficiency efforts based on actions identified with the
BEST benchmarking tool to achieve by 2005 a level of efficiency equal to the advanced international
level in 2000. A recent performance review showed that both plants were well on their way to
achieving these targets.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The success of our work in China relies heavily on
cooperation with a wide range of organizations and groups
U.S. Government
* Other national labs
* Universities
* NGOs
* International organizations
Chinese Government
LBNL
Chinese Counterparts
Foundations
•Funding support from US Government and private foundation sources
•Close work with Chinese government and research centers.
•Inform to US government agencies and support of bilateral US-China energy
agreements.
•Internal and external experts
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Expected Future Efforts
•
•
•
•
Energy Consuming Equipment
– Additional product minimum standards
– New appliance standards implementation policy
– Additional labeled products
– Extension of standards & labeling approach to new initiatives
such as government procurement
Buildings
– Technical support for building codes
Industry
– Expand individual studies to support national and provincial
targets
Cross cutting
– Fiscal and tax policy options for energy efficiency
– Improve data collection, particularly end-use
– Expand efforts to raise profile of energy efficiency policy
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Disaggregation of the SRES Scenarios
China Buildings Sector Example
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
•
Produced baseline scenarios to
2100
•
Four major storylines: A1, A2, B1,
B2
•
Four world regions: OECD90,
countries undergoing economic
reform(REF), Asian nations (ASIA),
and Africa and Latin American
countries (ALM).
•
Four marker scenarios
•
Energy use, fossil-fuel CO2
emissions
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
SRES Storylines
A1: Rapid economic
growth, low population
growth, rapid
introduction of new
and more efficient
technologies
B1: Transition to a
service-oriented
economy with clean
and efficient
technologies, low
population growth
A2: Slower economic
and technological
growth, high
population growth
B2: Intermediate
economic growth,
moderate population
growth, and less
rapid but more
diverse technological
change
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
World and Asia Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions and
Primary Energy Use, 1990-2030
Primary Energy Use - World
SRES Marker Scenarios
Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - World
SRES Marker Scenarios
16
1000
14
12
900
A2 ASF
800
700
Exajoules
B1 IMAGE
B2 MESSAGE
10
GtC
A1 AIM
8
6
A1 AIM
A2 ASF
B1 IMAGE
B2 MESSAGE
600
500
400
300
200
4
100
2
0
1990
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2030
2030
Primary Energy - Asia
Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Asia Region
6
300
5
250
4
200
A1 AIM
A2 ASF
B1 IMAGE
GtC
A1 AIM
A2 ASF
3
B1 IMAGE
B2 MESSAGE
Exajoules
B2 MESSAGE
150
2
100
1
50
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
2030
Motivation
•
IPCC-SRES – Most models lacked detail on energy demand by enduse technology,
– Inadequate ability to capture the potential for efficiency
improvement and the impacts of efficiency programs
– Energy intensity improvement potential not disaggregated by
• Energy efficiency
• Usage
• Technology size/scale
– Lack of intra-region disaggregation
•
Some modelers have since begun to include demand-side
technologies – AIM for Asia for example
•
Growing interest and demand for end-use global analysis
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Near- and Long-Term Goals
• Near-term Goals:
– Initiate a collaborative process for sectoral energy demand analysis
with IPCC authors and other collaborators
– Seek comments and commitments for collection of regional data
from participants
– Goal is to draft base case scenarios, particularly for the sectoral
chapters.
• Long-term goals:
– Develop a data base on demand-side technologies in order to
facilitate the development of energy scenarios
– Assess significance of technology potential and costs in a global
climate change model
– Provide input to LBNL and other energy and climate change models
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Database and Model:
10 World Regions
Region
Marker Countries
Collaborating Partners and Institutions
North America
United States
Jae Edmonds, PNNL (Modeling technologies)
Charlie Heaps, SEI-Boston
Joan Ogden, Shyam Menon, Attilio Pigneri, UC
Davis (Transportation)
Pacific OECD
Japan
Yonghun Jung, APERC
Western Europe
France, Germany, Italy,
Sweden, UK
Fridtjof Unander, IEA
Ernst Worrell, Ecofys, IPCC
Central and Eastern
Europe
Hungary
Diana Vorsatz, IPCC CLA
Former Soviet Union
Russia
Yonghun Jung, APERC
Sub-Saharan Africa
Senegal, South Africa
Senegal, South Africa
Middle East and
Northern Africa
Egypt
Egypt
Latin America
Brazil
Roberto Schaffer, IPCC, LA
Centrally Planned Asia
China
Yu Cong, Jiang Kejun, IPCC, LA, China
Other Asia
India
Joyashree Roy, IPCC, CLA
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Data Needs: Drivers,
Sector and Technology Structure
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Activity
- population
- # households
(electrified/non, urban/rural)
- m2 residential
- m2 commercial
-GDP
- Production
- economic
(VA/VOS)
- physical (tonnes)
- personal
-person-km
- freight
-ton-km
Structure
- By sub-sector
-residential
-commercial
- By end-use
- heating, cooling
- refrigeration
- appliances
- equipment
- lighting
- By sub-sector
- iron & steel
- non-ferrous
- cement
- pulp & paper
- chemicals
- etc…
- Product mix
- By Mode
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Water
- By Vehicle Type
- Passenger car
- Truck
-- etc…
Energy Intensity
- Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
- efficiency
- usage
- size/features
- Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
-Efficiency
-Usage
-Technology
- saturation
- energy intensities
- efficiency
- usage
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China (B2 Marker Scenario): Driver Variables for Bottomup Characterization of Buildings Sector
Primary Energy - Asia and China
120
Transport
250
Industry
Primary Energy (EJ)
200
80
Asia
China
150
60
100
40
50
20
1990
-
2000
2010
2020
2030
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Driver Variables
2000
2030
AAGR
GDP (trillion yuan) (2004 projections)
9.1
58.7
6.4%
Population (millions) (2004 projections)
1,268
1,451
0.5%
Share urban population(2004 projections)
36%
61%
1.8%
Commercial building area (billion m2) (BECON adjusted down
for B2 energy)
8.0
25.2
3.9%
Per capita living space--urban (m2/person)
19.9
37.0
2.1%
Per capita living space--rural (m2/person)
24.9
38.3
1.4%
Household size--urban (persons)
3.2
3.0
-0.2%
Household size--rural (persons)
4.4
4.1
-0.2%
Building Energy Demand (EJ) (Based on B2)
19.2
33.8
2.2%
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Primary Energy (EJ)
100
Buildings
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)
Variables for Residential Buildings
Drivers
• population
• household sizes
• GDP, income
• household area per capita
• heating/cooling loads per
m2 (including infiltration)
• lighting loads
• urbanization rates
• rural/urban splits
• heating/non-heating
region splits
Technical characteristics
• saturation levels of alternative
devices for each end use
– cooking
– appliances (refrigerator, washing
machine, TV, other)
– lighting (traditional, efficient)
– space heating
– space cooling
• energy types for devices
– electricity
– fossil fuels
– biofuels
• energy & emissions intensities
– by device, over time
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)
Variables for Commercial Buildings
Drivers
• population, GDP, income
• commercial area per capita
• heating/cooling loads per m2
• lighting loads per m2
• heating/non-heating region
splits
Building types
• hotel
• office
• Hospital
• Retail
• school
• other
Technical characteristics
• shares or saturation levels of
alternative devices for each
end use
–
–
–
–
space heating
space cooling
lighting
other
• energy types for devices
– electricity
– fossil fuels
• energy & emissions
intensities
– by device
– over time
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)
Bottom-up Modeling Results (primary energy)
EJ
China B2 Buildings
Share
40
35
Residential buildings
2000
13.4
2030
17.6
2000
63%
2030
49%
AAGR
0.9%
30
Primary Energy (EJ)
Energy Demand
25
Commercial
20
15
10
Commercial buildings
7.8
18.2
37%
51%
2.9%
Residential
5
2000
Urban buildings
11.8
29.5
56%
82%
3.1%
2030
China B2 Buildings
40
Coal
Natural gas
9.4
4.3
0.3
6.3
4.1
6.9
44%
20%
1%
18%
12%
19%
35
-1.3%
-0.1%
11.1%
30
Primary Energy (EJ)
Rural buildings
Rural
25
20
15
10
Urban
5
-
Oil products
0.7
1.9
3%
5%
2000
3.5%
2030
China B2 Buildings
40
Electricity
6.8
14.4
32%
40%
2.6%
35
Delivered heat
Biomass
1.1
8.1
6.4
2.2
5%
38%
18%
6%
6.0%
-4.3%
Primary Energy (EJ)
30
Biomass
25
Delivered
heat
20
15
Electricity
10
Oil products
5
Natural gas
Coal
2000
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
2030
Example: Urban Residential Refrigerators
Energy Demand
Eurbref  households urb  saturationurbref  share refi  UECrefi
i
Indicator
Urban households
Saturation of refrigerators
Shares:
ordinary
efficient
very efficient
Unit energy consumption:
ordinary
efficient
very efficient
Units
millions
%
2000
142
80%
2010
2020
2030
197
85%
250
90%
292
95%
%
%
%
60%
30%
10%
60%
30%
10%
60%
30%
10%
60%
30%
10%
kWh/yr
kWh/yr
kWh/yr
511
410
327
402
321
257
397
318
255
336
269
215
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Example: Urban Residential Refrigerators
B2 simulation results
China B2: Urban Refrigerators
200
180
Very
Efficient
160
140
TWh
120
Efficient
100
80
60
40
Ordinary
20
China B2: Urban Appliances
2000
2010
2020
450
2030
400
TVs
350
•Refrigerators are a major electricity user
Washing
Machines
•They will account for over 40% of
appliance energy use (excluding room air
conditioners) and 20% of urban
household electricity use in 2030.
TWh
300
250
200
Refrigerators
150
100
Other
50
2000
2010
2020
2030
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Example: Urban Residential Refrigerators
Sensitivity
600
150
size
index
Ordinary
140
Efficient
400
300
130
Very
Efficient
120
200
110
saturation
index
100
Index (2000 = 100)
Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr)
500
100
0
90
2000
2010
2020
2030
Current data on the Chinese market and information on possible future efficiency standards are used.
Three efficiency classes in each of three typical refrigerator sizes (170 liters, 220 liters, and 270 liters).
Average intensity are assumed to decline over the 2000 to 2030 period,
The average size of new refrigerators is assume to rise, as well as the rate of ownership, which
increases from 80% of urban households to 95%.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
As larger refrigerators grow to dominate energy
consumption, the share of efficient models also rises.
China B2: Urban Refrigerators
200
170
liter
180
160
140
TWh
Very
Efficient
Very
Efficient
120
Very
Efficient
Efficient
Efficient
100
220
liter
Efficient
Ordinary
Ordinary
270
liter
80
60
170
liter
40
20
Ordinary
220
liter
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
The Global Energy Demand Database:
A Shared Resource for Modelers Worldwide
Vision: The GED Database will be a collaboratively designed and
created resource, maintained by LBNL for the use of all
contributors. It will be a shared resource for project participants
and collaborators.
• Ability of participating groups to provide data and
documentation will determine GED database content.
• Each sector in each region will be built up from detailed data on
energy consumption, technology, and drivers.
• Users are free to determine applications.
– For example, GED database used in the LBNL GED Model
will allow simulation of demand consistent with existing
scenarios as well as creation of new scenarios.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
2005 Schedule
• January - April:
– Identify region/country/sector experts;
– LBNL to develop data collection spreadsheets, and
aggregate default data
– Spreadsheets with default data sent to experts in April
• April - June:
– Experts prepare detailed data for the model
– Spreadsheets returned to LBNL in June
• June- September:
– LBNL to begin data analysis and scenario disaggregation
– Preliminary disaggregated baseline scenario developed
– Results provided to AR4 writing teams
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
• Thank you!
• 谢谢！
• どうもありがとう
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Data Needs: Kaya Identity Applied at the EndUse Sector and Technology Level
Buildings Example
End-use Sector Level
ERB,I
Pi
Fi
Hi
EIRB,I
ERB,i 
=
=
=
=
=
Pi
 H i  EI RB,i
Fi
energy demand in the residential buildings sector in region i,
population in region i,
number of persons per household (family) in region i,
average floor area per household in region i in m2, and
average energy intensity in the residential sector in region i in MJ/m2-year.
OPTION OPTION OPTION
  
k
k
m
n
SHi
SCi
j
pi,j
UECi,j
Ci
Li
Ri
ERB,i 
m
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
n
Technology Level



Pm,i 
 H m , n ,i  SH i  SCi     pi , j  UECi , j   Ci  Li  Ri 
Fm ,i 
 j


energy type
locale type (urban, rural)
housing type (detached home, multifamily unit, other home)
space heating energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,
space cooling energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,
type of appliance or end-use device,
penetration of appliance or device j in region i,
average energy intensity of appliance j in region i
average cooking and water heating energy use per household in region i,
average lighting energy use per household in region i, and
residual household energy use in region i.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
SRES B2 Marker Scenario - Asia
Sector Disaggregation
Primary Energy - Asia
250
150
250
Asia
Transport
100
Industry
200
Buildings
50
150
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
100
50
1990
2000
2010
2020Division
2030
Environmental
Energy
Technologies
Primary Energy (EJ)
Exajoules
200
SRES B2 Marker Scenario - China
Sector Disaggregation
Primary Energy - Asia and China
250
Asia
Asia
China
150
China
100
China
120
Transport
50
Industry
100
Buildings
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
80
60
40
20
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
-
Primary Energy (EJ)
Primary Energy (EJ)
200
Table 4. Annual Energy Costs calculated by DOE-2 for Proposed Demonstration Building
Nat.
Elec.
Nat.
Elec. Total Energy
IncreMarket
IncreMarket
Gas
Use
Gas
Cost
Energy
Cost
mental
1st
Comp.
mental
Comp.
August 1999 Design
Use
Cost
Cost Savings
Cost
1st Cost Payback Payback
(MWh)
('000 yuan)
('000 yuan)
('000 yuan)
(years) (years)
Base Case
410 1112
69
577
645
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Light Wall and Roof
418 1102
70
571
641
4.1
0
0
0
0
Color
Recessed
Windows
419 1086
70
563
634
11.8
0
0
0
0
Window Overhangs
416 1091
70
566
636
9.7
63
63
6.5
6.5
Daylighting (Bi-level
438
844
74
421
494
151.1
99
99
0.7
0.7
Switch)
Daylighting
(Automatic) 438
841
74
419
492
153
320
320
2.1
2.1
Energy Efficient Lighting 441
877
74
451
525
120.6
66
346
0.5
2.9
Low-E Windows
430 1020
72
530
602
43.5
130
1156
3
26.5
Reduce Window Height
415 1080
70
560
630
15.6
-40
-40
0
0
2-Stage Chillers
410 1093
69
567
636
9.6
250
250
25.9
25.9
Increased Chiller COP
410 1099
69
570
639
6.7
100
100
15
15
Night Venting
450 1187
76
596
671
-25.8
0
0
*
*
(Mechanical)
Night
Venting (Natural)
450 1081
76
560
636
9.8
0
0
0
0
Combined Measure
515
584
87
292
378
267.4
579
1680
2.2
6.3
* measure is counterproductive and increases energy costs; therefore there is no payback period.
* Full operating conditions
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
Energy and Energy Cost Saving between
Base Case and Combined Measure
August 1999
Design
Heat Load Heat Gas HWater
Gas
(MWh)
Heat
Elec
Cool
Elec
(MWh)
Fans & Light
Pumps Elec
Equip
Elec
(MWh)
Total
Elec
Total w/
Gas Heat
Total w/
Steam Heat
(MWh)
(MWh)
(MWh)
1
Energy Cost (,000 yuan)
Base Case
Combined
Savings
% Savings
Site Energy Consumption (MWHe)
Base Case
162
Combined
241
Savings
79
% Savings
49%
40
57
18
44%
29
29
0
0%
4
83
5
31
1
-52
24% -62%
92
40
-52
-56%
281
103
-178
-63%
116
111
-4
-4%
577
292
-285
-49%
645
378
-267
-41%
237
342
105
44%
173
173
0
0%
9 161
11
63
2
-98
28% -61%
177
80
-97
-55%
543
207
-336
-62%
223
223
0
0%
1112
584
-528
-48%
1522
1099
-423
-28%
Source Energy Consumption (MWHe)2, 3
Base Case
237
Combined
342
Savings
105
% Savings
44%
173
173
0
0%
31 589
40 230
9 -359
28% -61%
651 1992
294
759
-357 -1232
-55% -62%
819
819
0
0%
4081
2143
-1939
-48%
4491
2658
-1834
-41%
Notes :
1 District heat costs are not included here because they do not vary with energy consumption.
Site 2energy
referstotoproduction
the amount
energy
consumed
at the
building;
source
energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power
Heat inputs
ofofdistrict
heating
or cogen
system
are not
known
plant3 to
provide
that
site
energy
to
the
consumer.
3.67 is used as the coefficient for converting on-site electricity to input energy for generation.
This is a lower coefficient than the 4.0 used for coal plants with a conversion efficiency of .25
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
1447
997
-449
-31%
The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies
in Building Sector —DHC and CHP
China: District heating plants provided space heat accounting for
nearly one-eighth of total floor space with space heating. The
thermal efficiency is 80 percent for CHP plants and 70 percent
for district boilers, far exceeding the 50 percent efficiency of
the small-scale boilers that they replaced. In 1998, the 120
TWh of power and 1.036 billion GJ of heat generated by CHP
plants saved 41million tonnes of coal while reducing
particulate emissions by 620,000 tonnes, sulphur dioxide
emissions by 820,000 tonnes, and carbon dioxide emissions by
1.8 million tonnes. Local air quality has improved a lot due to
CHP plants. For example, total suspended particulates in
Mudanjiang city during the winter fell from 800 mg to 369 mg
per cubic metre after a CHP plant entered service.
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
LBNL Model Structure (LEAP): Intra-Regions,
Sectors, End-Uses and Technologies
• regions
Region A
• countries
Country X
• locales
Urban
• electrification
status
• dwelling types
• end uses
• technologies
• energy types
Electrified
Single-family
dwellings
Rural
Non-electrified
Multi-family
dwellings
Electrified
Single-family
dwellings
Other
dwellings
end uses
Non-electrified
Multi-family
dwellings
Other
dwellings
energy types
technologies
Space heating
Furnace
Electricity
Space cooling
Electric resistance
Refrigerators
Cooking
Heat pump
Clothes washers
Water heating
District heating
Dish washers
Lighting
Stove
TVs
Gas fuels
Liquid fuels
Solid fossil fuels
Biomass fuels
Appliances
Others
Environmental Energy Technologies Division