• Big picture – national and international context of HE
– Distance between institutional/local and national/global
• Economic growth and development
• Higher education and development
• Higher education in Africa
• New policy responses currently underway
• Key issues
2

A substantial body of academic and technical literature provides evidence of the relationship between informationalism, productivity and competitiveness for countries, regions and business firms. But, this relationship only operates under three conditions: information connectedness, organizational change in the form of networking; and enhancement of the quality of human labor, itself dependent on education and quality of life. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)
The structural basis for the growing inequality, in spite of high growth rates in many parts of the world, is the growth of a highly dynamic, knowledgeproducing, technologically advanced sector that is connected to other similar sectors in a global network, but it excludes a significant segment of the economy and of the society in its own country. The lack of human development prevents what Manuel Castells calls the ‘virtuous cycle’, which constrains the dynamic economy. (Castells and Cloete, 2011)
Connecting growth to human development – trickle down don’t work
3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita vs Human Development Index (HDI)
Country
Botswana
Mauritius
South Africa
Chile
Costa Rica
Taiwan (China)
GDP per capita (PPP,
$US) 2007
GDP ranking
13 604
11 296
9 757
13 880
10 842
60
68
78
59
73
HDI Ranking (2007)
125
81
129
44
54
GDP ranking per capita minus HDI ranking
-65
-13
-51
+15
+19
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Uganda
Tanzania
1 334
1 542
802
1 059
1 208
153
149
169
163
157
152
147
172
157
151
1
2
-3
6
6
Finland
South Korea
U.S.A.
34 256
24 801
45 592
23
35
9
12
26
13
11
9
-4
4

During the first decade of the post-apartheid era in South Africa, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a ‘modest rate’, averaging one percent, though edging up to around three percent. Nevertheless, this has been the longest period of positive growth in its history.
The envisaged post-1994 economic policies for the development project stated that the economy would require steering onto a new development path which, amongst others, would reduce dependence on resource sectors through industrial deepening and diversification (Bhorat 2010).
Mohamed (2009, 2011) states that we experienced the ‘wrong type’ of economic growth from the end of apartheid and particularly during the five years prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Economic growth was not only associated with high unemployment and growing inequality, it was unsustainable because it required growing private sector indebtedness and was accompanied by decline in productive services and manufacturing
5

The worst impact of the 2008 crisis, resulted in at least a million job losses is associated with:
• structural industrial weaknesses and de-industrialization as a result of development centred around mining and minerals
• continued reliance on extractive mining and minerals exports
• consumption led growth and increased investment in services sectors, such as finance and retail
• speculative asset bubbles in real estate and finance and increased construction
(mainly around the 2010 Soccer World Cup) and car sales
• the role of the financial sector which has emulated the behaviour of US financial institutions in increasing leverage and misallocation of capital in SA economy. (Mohamed 2009)
6

A major change in the South African economy is the change in the skills profile.
The National Planning Commission Diagnostic Report (NPC 2011) shows that job growth between 1995 and 2009 saw a 50% increase in high-skilled jobs and a 20% decrease in low-skilled jobs. Using data for the period 1970–2005, and updated to 2009, Bhorat (2010b:20) argue that “… this growth path has been built on a rising demand for skilled labour with a steady erosion in the demand for unskilled or under-skilled workers. The modern era in the South African economy has thus been defined by a growth path with a constant increased demand for educated workers at the expense of those with lower level of human capital”
7

The stated goal of the post-apartheid economic policy was to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment. A 2% growth should lead to a 1-7% reduction in poverty, depending on the country – meaning the success of redistributive policies (Bhorat 2010a). In South Africa, poverty declined from 52% in 1995 to
49% in 2005 and in the lower poverty group a 7% decline (31% to 24%). In addition, there were definite gains in poverty reduction, particularly in African female-headed households (Bhorat 2010a). All people, regardless of race, experienced increases in expenditure, meaning that growth was ‘pro-poor’.
Despite the modest gains in poverty reduction, the inequality gap did not decrease; instead, it increased amongst all groups. This led Bhorat (2010a) to conclude that in 1994 South Africa was ‘one of the world’s most unequal societies, but by 2005 it may have become the world’s most unequal’.
8

While spending on education and health remained fairly constant in real terms, recipients of social grants (excluding administration) now consumes 3.2% of
GDP, up from 1.9% in 2000/01. The total number of beneficiaries increased from 3 million in 1997 to 15 million in 2010 (Woodard and Rembrandt 2011).
The share of households in the first income deciles with access to grant income increased from 43% in 1995 to almost 65% in 2005 and that even for households in the sixth deciles grant income increased from 19% in 1994 to
50% in 2005. According to Bhorat (2010a) this suggests that grant income does not only support the very poor, but also a large number of households in the middle income distribution.
More recent estimates suggest that 25% of the population are on social grants and
40 per cent of household income in the poorest quintile (Woolard and
Leibbrandt 2011).
Post-1994 South African democratic redistribution model operates through extensive social grants at the bottom end, few benefits at the middle of the distribution curve and the main growth is at the de-racialising top end. Based on this growth path, both Bhorat (unequal income distribution) and Mbeki (the disempowerment of welfarism) express concern for the future of democracy.
9

• SA has a development model crisis
• The small “productive” sector is increasingly globally connected while the majority remain disconnected, but is “maintained” through social welfare which should be supplemented by service delivery – but this is not Productive nor Empowering
• We need more and broader growth which connects Growth to
Human Development
• Castells project of Finland, Chile, Taiwan, Costa Rica, SA and
California
• Higher education, and ICT, has a crucial role to play in virtuous growth - Knowledge production (growth), broadening medium level skills and participation (equity)
• Basic link is education and employment (linked)
10

The relationship between scientific excellence and economic development
11
GDP per capita (current US$) Predicted GDP per capita (current US$)
High
Low
Australia
Italy
Tunisia
Egypt
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
South Africa
India
Korea
Low
Influence of Scientific Research
China
High
United States
Japan
UK
Germany
(R = 0.714, P = 0.218)
(R = 0.961, P = 0.002)*
Data source: Thomson Reuters InCites TM (21 September 2010); The World Bank Group (2010)
Vuyani Lingela, 24 November 2011

Country
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Tanzania
Uganda
Botswana
Mauritius
South Africa
Finland
South Korea
United States
Participation Rate and Development Indicators
Stage of development
(2009-2010)
Stage 1:
Factor-driven
Transition from
1 to 2
Stage 2:
Efficiency-driven
Stage 3:
Innovation-driven
Gross tertiary education enrolment rate
(2008)
2
2
6
4
4
Quality of education system ranking
(2009-2010)
71
32
81
99
72
Overall global competitive ranking
(2010-2011)
114
106
131
113
118
20
26
17 (8.5)
94
98
82
48
50
130
6
57
26
76
55
54
7
22
4
12

BRICS: Selected higher education and economic development indicators (WEF 2010)
Country
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Stage of development
(2009-2010)
Stage 2:
Efficiency-driven
Stage 2:
Efficiency-driven
Stage 1:
Factor-driven
Stage 2:
Efficiency-driven
Stage 2:
Efficiency-driven
GDP per capita
(USD)
(2009)
Tertiary education enrolment rate
(2008)
Global
Competitiveness
Index ranking
(2010 –2011)
8 220 35 58
8 694
1 031
3 678
5 824
77
14 (2007)
23
17
63
51
27
54
13

Gross participation rates in SA higher education by Race, 1986 - 2009
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1986
1995
2000
2005
2009
African
5%
9%
10%
12%
13%
Coloured
9%
10%
9%
13%
15%
Indian
32%
35%
40%
51%
45%
White
61%
61%
57%
60%
58%
Average
11%
14%
14%
16%
17%
14

Effective Participation: Throughput rates of general academic first-Bdegrees
Graduated in regular time (3 years) - general academic first Bdegrees, excluding Unisa
52%
Black White All
43% 43%
35%
33%
29%
28%
24% 24%
21%
14%
13% 13%
11% 11%
Source: Fisher and Scott, 2011

Structure of the South African Education System (2010)
Universities
UG diplomas & certificates
UG degrees
Total undergraduates
PG to M
Masters
Doctors
Total postgraduate
Occasional students
Total enrolment
Private Universities
986,559
285,948
440,934
726,882
80,321
46,699
11,590
138,610
27,444
892,936
FET Colleges
N1 – N3
N4 – N6
NC(V)
NSC
Occupational
Total Public
Private FET Colleges
404,849
24,937
144,837
130,039
3,916
23,160
326,889
77,960
Public and Independent Schools 12,644,208
FET Band
GET Band
OTHER
Total
ECD
Special Schools
2,460,961
9,742,078
7,441
12,260,099
279,476
104,633
Not in Education, Employment or Training
(18 to 24 year olds) comprising persons with the following qualifications:
2,781,185
Gr 12 + dipl/cert
Gr 12 with/without exemption
Gr 10 less than Gr 12
Less than Grade 10
11,552
72,588
696,992
990,794
1,009,259
Public ABET (2011) 312,077

South Africa and Brazil
Brazil Education, 2009
South Africa Higher Education and Post-Secondary
Provisioning, 2010 Provisional Headcounts
Knowledge Production – High ( 8%)
89 581
Knowledge Production – Medium ( 55%)
Total: 594 018
301 554 292 464
Knowledge Production – Low (19%)
210 319
Post-Secondary (10%)
109 482
Private Higher Education (8%)
81 596
NEET with Grade 12/ STD 10/ NTCIII 1 000 000 (NEET's with matric)
Distance Provider Contact Institutions
Population: 49 000 000
HE Participation rate: 17%
White PR: 58%
African PR: 13%
Source: CHET
Public state (10%)
650 000
Public federal (12%)
752 000
Public municipal (2%)
118 000
Private Higher Education ( 60%)
Private PG (mainly business schools) (3%)
180 000
Distance (13%)
838 000
3 764 000
Private
Students in system : 6 302 000
Total population : 193 million
Private students : 63%
Participation Rate : 35%
17

Gini Coefficient - South Africa compared to Brazil
Brazil South Africa
0,75
0,70
0,67
0,65
0,60
0,60
0,67
0,60
0,69
0,59
0,55
0,50
0,45
A low Gini coefficient indicates a more equal distribution of income or wealth, with 0 corresponding to perfect equality, while a higher Gini coefficient indicate more unequal distribution, with 1 corresponding to perfect inequality.
1993 1997 2001
0,68
0,57
Source: CHET
2005
0,68
0,54
2009

Globally Central role of knowledge in government policies
Focus in Knowledge Policies on:
1. Global economic competitiveness
2. Innovative capacity of societies
3. High Level Skills and Competencies of Labour force (Knowledge workers)
Claus Swabe (WEF) Not Capitalism, but Talentism

Starting point = New conditions in the global economy
Growing focus of national (regional – supranational) policy makers and other central socio-economic actors on the university as a driver for economic growth through its role as source for innovation and job creation.
Consequence = Two new university governance aspects
First targeted policies for and investments in universities’ research capacity are assumed to be needed in order to improve the global competitiveness of a specific economy.
Second , targeted policies for and investments in connecting the enhanced research capacity of universities to the knowledge needs of society (incl. private and public sector companies and organisations) in order to ensure the link of new knowledge to economic growth (innovation & new jobs ).
«Balancing academic excellence with economic relevance»

HERANA: 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities
Higher Education Research and Advocacy Network in Africa
• Starting point is to increase understanding of the complex links/interactions between higher education and economic development – at national and institutional levels
• Three successful systems – Finland, South Korea and North Carolina (USA)
• Eight African countries and their national universities: Botswana, Ghana,
Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan
University/UCT), Tanzania, Uganda
• Network consists of 50 people from 15 countries, include Manuel Castells,
Peter Maassen (Oslo) John Douglas (Berkeley) and Pundy Pillay (Wits)
Funded by: Ford, Carnegie, Rockefeller, Kresge and Norad

Findings from Three Successful Systems
Finland, South Korea, North Carolina (USA)
• As part of reorganising their ‘mode of production’, a pact was reached about a knowledge economy (high skills and innovation) as development driver
• Close links between economic and education planning
• High participation rates with differentiation
• Strong ‘state’ steering (projects)
• Higher education linked to regional development
• Responsive to the labour market
• Strong coordination (prime ministers office) and networks
Pundy Pillay (2010) Linking higher education to economic development:
Implications for Africa from three successful systems (CHET)

23
HERANA Findings on 8 African Countries and Flagship Universities
1.
There is a lack of agreement (pact) between national and university stakeholders about a development model, and about the role of higher education in development
2.
Only one of the eight countries (Mauritius) has accepted knowledge, and the associated human capital and research development, as a key driver for economic growth
3.
Linking higher education to development requires considerable coordination within government, and between government, the university and external funders, and all three must contribute
4.
The absence of a pact about the role of the university in development affects negatively implementation and resource allocation – which raises the possibility that we a have double problem; lack of capacity and a lack of agreement

New policy responses currently underway
• New policy frenzy reminiscent of 1995
• Economic, environment, labour and even constitution
• Focus on:
– National planning Commission
– DHET Green Paper
• Focus on knowledge policies, participation and differentiation
24

25
National Planning Commission (Nov 2011): Functions of HE (1)
Higher education is the major driver of the information-knowledge system, linking it with economic development...Universities are key to developing a nation. They play three main functions in society:
Firstly, they educate and train people with high-level skills for the employment needs of the public and private sectors .
Secondly, universities are the dominant producers of new knowledge, and they critique information and find new local and global applications for existing knowledge. Universities also set norms and standards, determine the curriculum, languages and knowledge, ethics and philosophy underpinning a nation's knowledge-capital. South Africa needs knowledge that equips people for a society in constant social change

NPC: Functions (2)
" Thirdly, given the country's apartheid history, higher education provides opportunities for social mobility and simultaneously strengthens equity, social justice and democracy. In today's knowledge society, higher education underpinned by a strong science and technology innovation system is increasingly
important in opening up people's opportunities." (p262)
For the first time knowledge production and equity are linked by stating that "high quality knowledge production cannot be fully realized with a low student participation rate" (p274).
26
Also universities are not mainly fro individual mobility or for equity redress - equity is mentioned last and transformation in the Castells sense

The NPC is so enthusiastic about knowledge that it declares that
"knowledge production is the rationale of higher education"
(p271) - indeed a radical departure from the traditional
'rationale' of higher education in Africa, that is, disseminating
(teaching) knowledge from somewhere else.
27
Posters outside Parliament for Thursday’s State of the Nation:
Knowledge Economy and Development Opportunities.
At ANC 100 th Zuma said: “Education and skills are the key priority for our people”
These are huge steps away from HE as individual mobility and an equity instrument – but in State of Nation President announced the biggest infrastructure project in history – not a word of KE

1.
the notion of knowledge production consists of a combination of
PhD education and research output.
2.
a target of tripling the number of doctoral gradates from 1,420 to
5,000 per annum, and increasing the proportion of academic staff with PhDs from 34% to 75%
3.
a number of world-class centres and programmes should be developed within the national system of innovation and the higher education sector.
4.
a new future scholars programme needs to be developed, both to increase the proportion of staff with PhDs and to meet the increasing demand for professional PhDs in the non-university research, financial and services sectors
5.
role of science councils should be reviewed in light of the worldwide tendency to align, or merge, research councils with universities
28

29
1.
deals with the worldwide policy debate about the concentration of resources by proposing world-class centers and programmes across institutions (High science - Ska)
2.
advises the Ministerial Committee for the Review of the
Funding of Universities that such revisions should be based on the needs of a differentiated system with adequate provision for both teaching and research
3.
requires flexible pathways for student mobility between institutions
4.
the Higher Education Quality Committee should finally start developing a core set of quality indicators for the whole system;

30
1.
Differentiation a process – diversity and hierarchy
2.
Concentration:
• Institutions – world class/underclass
• Programmes – skills
• Institutional profiles – faculties
• Special centers/networks - (High science - Ska), Networks,
Institutes

31
Research and innovation
1.
Economic depends on innovation and technology absorption
2.
While investment in research has tripled, there has not been a commensurate increase in personnel
3.
Total knowledge output has increased 64% (2000-2009) but the system must become more productive
4.
Poverty is a significant constraint on masters and Phd studies – students under pressure to obtain jobs??
5.
Drastically increase number and quality of masters and PhD’s
6.
Need for increased coordination between DHET and DST
7.
Caliber and workload of academic staff must be addressed
8.
Long term plan for renewing the academic profession doctorates for academics and professions

32
Research
The research output of 2010, 57% of accredited research in the sector takes place at five institutions. These are all institutions with a historical research focus. In contrast with this, less that
10% of total research takes place at another eleven institutions.
These eleven includes all Universities of Technology and many of the previously disadvantaged institutions.
When looking closely at these eleven institutions, output per staff member is the lowest here and that, in general, the percentage of staff with Doctoral qualifications is also the lowest.

33
Research
The fact is that Government cannot afford to develop all higher education institutions to become research intensive. Our institutions have different missions and agendas, and rightly so. It is, therefore, important for institutions to identify their mission and develop their strengths accordingly .
This does not exclude institutions from engaging in research at all.
All universities must conduct research. It is only the nature and quantity of research that will differ.
It would not benefit society if research were to be developed to the detriment of quality teaching and learning.

NPC and DHET: The Good, the Bad and the Incomprehensible
34
1.
Differentiation (whatever form) is official
2.
Knowledge production (PhD and research output must increase – different counts of research outputs) – at last recognising the knowledge producing role of the university
3.
Big focus on doctorate – for academics (target more than 60%), professions research councils and other sectors (finance)
4.
Good quality undergraduate education – including infrastructure funds for labs, libraries, housing
5.
Improvement of through put – efficiency
6.
Dramatic increase in participation rate – mainly in FET sector
7.
Mission and profile differentiation
8.
Improved Coordination between DSHT and DHET (HESA meeting)
9.
More funding for higher education
10.
Shift from Transformation to Development

The rise of doctorates
45,0%
40,0%
40,0%
35,0%
30,0%
Major expansion of higher education has boosted PhD output in many countries, shown here as average annual growth of doctoral degrees across all disciplines.
1998 - 2006
25,0%
20,0%
17,1%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
10,0%
8,5%
7,1%
6,4% 6,2% 6,2% 6,1%
5,2%
2,5%
1,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
China Mexico Denmark India Korea South
Africa
Japan Australia Poland United
Kingdom
United
States
-2,2%
Canada Germany Hungary
Source: Nature. International weekly journal in Science

HERANA - Total PhD enrolled and total PhD graduates, 2001 - 2007
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
6 080
2 000
1 000
0
187
34
299
126
6 0
Botswana Makerere Eduardo
Mondlane
1 103
931
648
83 47
163
Ghana *Mauritius Nairobi
674
90
Dar es
Salaam
1 759
854
203
NMMU University of
Cape Town
*
Mauritius enroll large numbers of students as MPhil students, and depending on their performance only some graduate as PhD students

Graph 1 offers summaries for the 15-year period 1996-2010.
Doctoral enrolments were 1.3% of national total of 893 000 students in 2010.
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
13449
5164
5622
685
13098
5528
5456
761
1996 1998
Doctoral enrolments
14184
6394
5936
961
14673
7763
6483
969
2000 2002
Doctoral graduates
15423
8790
6660
1104
15809
9800
8003
1100
2004 2006
Research publications
15936
9939
8353
1182
16684
11468
9748
Permanent academics
Doctoral enrolments
Research publications
1421
Doctoral graduates
2010 2008
Permanent academics
37

Graph 4 shows how the % of doctoral enrolments by race group changed between 1996 to 2010. African doctoral students rose from 13% in 1996 to
33% in 2004, and 44% in 2010.
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
78%
62%
13%
9%
1996
African
25%
13%
2000
55%
33%
12%
White
2004
49%
41%
10%
44%
42%
African
White
14%
Coloured+Indian
2008
Coloured +Indian
2010
38

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
South African Universities – PhD graduates by nationality
South African International
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
29%
71%
30%
70%
34%
66%
34%
66%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Norwegian Universities - PhD graduates by nationality
Norwegian International
23%
77%
25%
75%
26%
74%
28%
72%
33%
67%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Enrolments
2007
2008
2009
South African International Total
7 195
6 959
7 213
2 853
3 035
3 316
10 048
9 994
10 529
2010 7 841 3 749 11 590
Graduates South African International Total
2007 900 374 1 274
2008
2009
2010
829
908
931
353
470
489
1 182
1 378
1 420
South African PhD students graduation rate by
South African nationality
International
15%
14%
13%
13%
13%
12%
13%
13%
12%
11%
12%
2007 2008 2009 2010
It is important to note that the two countries produce almost the same number of PhD graduates but that South Africa’s population is in the order of 48 million whilst Norway’s population is 4.8 million
Graduates Norwegian International Total
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
789
937
851
858
889
241
308
297
326
438
1030
1245
1148
1184
1327