Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final November 2013 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Prepared by RMCG in conjunction with the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Table of Contents Executive Summary i 1 Vision: the Goulburn Valley fruit industry in 15 years 1 1.1 Vision statement....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Strategic directions................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 National strategies ........................................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 State strategies ............................................................................................................. 3 1.2.3 Regional priorities ......................................................................................................... 4 1.2.4 Industry priorities ........................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Goulburn Valley industry context ........................................................................................... 10 1.3.1 A brief history: 1980s onwards ................................................................................... 10 1.3.2 Opportunities and threats............................................................................................ 13 1.3.3 Value and economic contribution ................................................................................ 13 2 Current situation: the Goulburn Valley fruit growing industry 2.1 16 Market analysis ...................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.1 Domestic production ................................................................................................... 16 2.1.2 Fruit exports ................................................................................................................ 17 2.1.3 Fruit imports ................................................................................................................ 21 2.2 Trend analysis ........................................................................................................................ 23 2.2.1 Fruit production and value .......................................................................................... 23 2.2.2 Fruit producers, area and trees .................................................................................. 24 2.2.3 Fruit intake for processing........................................................................................... 27 2.2.4 Consumer trends ........................................................................................................ 28 2.3 Competitive advantage of the Goulburn Valley ..................................................................... 29 3 Actions: achieving the vision 30 3.1 Role of government, industry and individual businesses ....................................................... 30 3.2 Actions for government, industry and individual businesses ................................................. 31 3.2.1 Provide structural adjustment support ........................................................................ 31 3.2.2 Improve partnerships and collaboration ...................................................................... 32 3.2.3 Encourage innovation and adoption ........................................................................... 32 3.2.4 Coordinate industry export and domestic market focus ............................................. 33 3.2.5 Support business development .................................................................................. 35 References 37 Appendix 1: Property Size Area Ranges in the Goulburn Valley Region 40 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Executive Summary Vision: the Goulburn Valley fruit industry in 15 years The objectives of this roadmap are to: Provide a vision for the fruit growing industry in the Goulburn Valley for the next 15 years Outline the current situation of the fruit growing industry in the Goulburn Valley, including opportunities and threats Develop strategic actions for government, industry and individual businesses to achieve the vision with clear responsibilities and timelines. The vision for the next 15 years is: Fruit growing businesses and the industry continue to drive the social and economic prosperity and growth of the Goulburn Valley region. This will be achieved by: Increasing production and profitability through world class orchard production systems Fostering innovation and sustainability Building and transferring the strong skill and knowledge base Continuing to supply the large and growing domestic market Increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the processing sector Improving access to and capitalising on export market opportunities. National, state, regional and industry strategic directions support this vision. The Goulburn Valley fruit growing industry Fruit growing in the Goulburn Valley has a bright future. The industry has a sound base for further development and is already outstripping other horticulture regions in growth. Market analysis The Goulburn Valley is the major producer of processed and fresh fruit at a national scale Export is a small but important component of fruit production in the area with the opportunity to grow the Asian export market. Major fruits exported include apples, cherries, nectarines, peach, plum and pear Import is relatively small with the predominant fruit being cherries. Trend analysis1 The area of fruit production in the Goulburn Valley increased by 26 per cent to 11,500 ha over the period 2001 to 2011 with accompanied increase in planting density There has been an increase in the planting of trees over the past decade, primarily fresh market varieties for stone fruit 1 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page i Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Fruit intake for processing has declined significantly over the past decade, with a reduction in peach and pear intake for processing by 53 per cent and 65 per cent respectively by SPC Ardmona from 2008 to 2015 (forecast) Consumer analysis highlights increased demand for fresh fruit and innovative processed products. The number of fruit growers in the region has declined by 28 per cent over this period with consolidation of properties Competitive advantage of the Goulburn Valley The Goulburn Valley has a competitive advantage with its soils and land capability, ideal climate, water security and updated world class delivery system, availability and price of land, reduced pest and disease pressure, infrastructure and transport, skilled people and clean and safe produce. Actions: achieving the vision There are a number of actions that require implementation to ensure the vision for the Goulburn Valley is achieved. Actions are described as a program of works and it is expected that these will be undertaken through a staged approach. These include: Provide structural adjustment support Improve partnerships and collaboration Encourage innovation and adoption Coordinate industry export and domestic market focus Support business development. The implementation of these programs will require a desire and commitment for government, industry and businesses to work together. Prioritisation and timing of each program of works requires further development by the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group (GVFGSSG) and relevant partners. Table ES-1: Summary of actions for government, industry and individual businesses Program of works Action Provide structural adjustment support Facilitate transition of SPC Ardmona (Federal, State Government) Assist transition, adaptation and restructuring (Federal, State Government, industry) Communicate local planning provisions (Local Government) Improve partnerships and collaboration Support changes in HAL and National RD&E framework (Federal, State Government and industry) Improve collaboration within industry (Federal, State Government and industry) Develop industry and regional leadership (State, Local Government, industry and business) Encourage innovation and adoption Inform research and development (Federal and State Government) Establish the Tatura horticultural centre for excellence (State Government) Provide extension services (Federal and State Government) Coordinate industry export and domestic market focus Improve market access (Federal and State Government) Coordinate domestic and export markets (Industry, Federal and State government) Coordinate market promotion (Federal, State government and industry) Support business development Continue infrastructure provision (Federal, State and Local government) Increase production and profitability (Federal, State government, industry and business) Develop Horticultural Business Development Group (State, Local Government and Industry) Continue education of the work force (State and Local government) RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page ii Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 1 Vision: the Goulburn Valley fruit industry in 15 years 1.1 Vision statement The objectives of this roadmap are to: Provide a vision for the fruit growing industry in the Goulburn Valley for the next 15 years Outline the current situation of the fruit growing industry in the Goulburn Valley, including opportunities and threats Develop strategic actions for government, industry and individual businesses to achieve the vision with clear responsibilities and timelines. The vision for the next 15 years is: Fruit growing businesses and the industry continue to drive the social and economic prosperity and growth of the Goulburn Valley region. This will be achieved by: Increasing production and profitability through world class orchard production systems Fostering innovation and sustainability Building and transferring the strong skill and knowledge base Continuing to supply the large and growing domestic market Increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the processing sector Improving access to and capitalising on export market opportunities. This vision is supported by national, state, regional and industry strategic directions. The important elements for the implementation of the vision are described. 1.2 Strategic directions Key messages There is national support to improve the competitiveness and export potential of the fruit growing industry. This includes a focus on food security and health, efficient production systems, responsible management of natural resources and open trade with Asian partners The State government aims to support the horticulture sector to increase productivity and production, effectively manage resources and capitalise on market access The fruit growing industry is critical to the Goulburn Valley region contributing to economic growth, regional development and the social fabric. The region has significant attributes that provide a competitive advantage. There is extensive support for the industry to ensure vibrant communities, efficient farm production and processing systems and sustainable use of natural resources The fruit industry is underpinned by a strong domestic market with additional opportunity in the existing processing market and the expanding export market. RD&E is supported with DEPI taking the lead for stone and pome fruit sectors. RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 1 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 1.2.1 National strategies The agriculture industry, including fruit growing, has experienced considerable change over the past decade and numerous challenges for some sectors. However, overall the future for agriculture looks bright with the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry aiming to enhance the sustainability, profitability and competitiveness of Australia's agriculture, food, fisheries and forestry industries. A number of national strategies will continue to guide the direction and activities of the agriculture sector. These national strategic directions are critical to support the delivery of the Goulburn Valley vision and include: National Food Plan White Paper2 which aims to grow exports, support a thriving industry, maintain domestic food security and safety for community wellbeing, assist in improving global food security, and produce food sustainably to 2025. This will ensure that Australia’s food system is a sustainable, globally competitive, resilient food supply supporting access to nutritious and affordable food Asian Century White Paper3 acknowledges that Australia, and the Goulburn Valley, operate in a global market and has strong links to the National Food Plan. The paper recognises that the priority of Asian markets will increase as world food consumption is expected to be 75 per cent higher by 2050 than in 2007, and almost half of this increased demand will come from China alone. This will ensure Australia will be a more prosperous and resilient nation, part of the region and open to the world by 2025 Blueprint for Australian Agriculture to 2020 4 is a cross-sectoral strategy that aims to improve innovation and research, development and extension, competitiveness, trade and market access, address labour shortages in the agricultural workforce, improve public perceptions of agriculture, manage natural resources sustainably and better deal with uncertainties. This will ensure that the Australian agriculture sector is a world leader in providing high quality food and fibre for a global population using innovative technologies and sustainable natural resource management. It is productive, profitable, innovative and valued for its environmental, economic and social contribution to Australian life Murray Darling Basin Plan outlines the importance of protecting the natural resource base of irrigated agriculture and associated environmental assets.5 The Basin Plan aims to rebalance the relative allocation of water between consumptive use and the environment. The impacts of this at a regional level are uncertain with the potential for negative social and economic ramifications. To ensure these opportunities are realised it is important that domestic fruit production and local markets are supported and export markets are further developed. Markets for processed fruit have generally been declining slowly over time, other than where product diversification and innovation attracts a new class of consumer. However, although the industry is suffering serious injury, there is an expectation that there will be an ability to adapt to changing consumer trends and global conditions. 6 2 Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2013) National Food Plan White Paper, Australian Government, Canberra Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (2012) Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, Australian Government, Canberra 4 National Farmers Federation (2013) Blueprint for Australian Agriculture 2013-2020, in conjunction with major partners Westpac, Woolworths and the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra 5 Murray Darling Basin Authority (2012) Murray Darling Basin Plan, Australian Government, Canberra 6 Productivity Commission (2013) Safeguards Inquiry into the Import of Processed Fruit Products, Report No. 64, Australian Government, Canberra 3 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 2 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final The development of regional communities is also a priority in recognising the economic and environmental aspects of the fruit growing industry, and the agricultural sector more broadly. 1.2.2 State strategies The Department of Environment and Primary Industries (DEPI) drive the strategic directions for agriculture at the state level. The vision for DEPI is productive and competitive primary industries enabled by sustainable management of private and public land, water and the environment to support Victoria's long-term prosperity. DEPI will work with industry to support the growth and competitiveness of Victoria’s agriculture industries and exports through driving productivity, connecting to Asia, and supporting industry development and transition. The aim of productive and competitive food and agriculture industries will be achieved through the following objectives: Increase productivity growth and enhance natural resource management in the dairy, grains, red meat, and horticulture industries through innovative research and development Facilitate access to key international markets for Victorian food and fibre and capture investment for the Victorian agri-food sector Accelerate the adoption of relevant technologies and management practices by farm businesses Improve policy and regulation to enhance competitiveness, productivity, industry development and transition Enable primary industries to maintain access to markets and minimise the impact of emergencies and biosecurity threats.7 DEPI aims to support the horticulture sector to increase productivity and production, effectively manage resources and capitalise on market access. In particular, it seeks to work with target industries (pome fruits, stone fruits, almonds, citrus and grapes) to contribute to doubling their production by 2030.8 Within the National Primary Industries research, development and extension (RD&E) Framework9, DEPI has a ‘major’ role for pome fruit, stone fruit, almonds, dried vine fruit and fresh potato R&D and a ‘support’ role for grape and wine R&D. The focus for DEPI includes: Development of more effective integrated pest and disease management Improved water use efficiency to maximise the benefits of irrigation infrastructure system upgrades Managing extreme weather events and Adapting to elevated temperatures and carbon dioxide levels. 7 Department of Environment and Primary Industries (2013) Agriculture Productivity Group Business Plan 2013-2017, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 8 Pers. comms. (2013) Sze Flett, Director, Horticulture Services & Acting Director, Grains Services, Department of Environment an Primary Industries, 28 October 9 National Horticultural Research Network (2010) National RD&E Framework for Horticulture, September RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 3 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Services will be focused on supporting industries through web-based knowledge management platforms.10 1.2.3 Regional priorities Support for the Goulburn Valley vision at a regional level requires consideration of economic, environmental and social issues. The strategic directions for agriculture in the Goulburn Valley are guided by: Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities 2010-202011 which aims to manage the regions water resources sustainably (key direction 2), adapt and diversify agriculture in an environment of change (key direction 10) and retain productive rural land for agriculture and other compatible rural uses (key direction 19) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan12 actions which include: Promote and build on the Goulburn Valley as a sub region of excellence in water efficiency, through industry and government partnerships, the GMW Connections Program and On-Farm Irrigation Efficiency program (2.1.GV1) Advocate for critical freight transport infrastructure upgrades consistent with the Northern Victoria Regional Transport Strategy (10.1.GV1) Facilitate the coordinated marketing of the ‘Goulburn Valley Foodbowl’ concept to attract further investment into agribusiness (10.1.GV2) Ensure land use planning protects productive agricultural land from fragmentation and inappropriate developments through partnerships with key agencies (10.2.GV1) Continue to develop and implement rural land use strategies at a local/sub regional level to protect prime agriculture land from inappropriate development (19.1.GV1). This includes the Hume Regional Land Use Study13 and Campaspe, Greater Shepparton and Moira Regional Rural Land Use Strategy.14 Hume Strategy Regional Plan Key Priorities for 2012/1315 include building strong manufacturing and agricultural sectors supported by a capable workforce and positioning the Hume Region in the global food economy Hume Regional Growth Plan16 aims to: Support the protection of strategic farmland Support and manage intensive agricultural production Support changing farm sizes, methods, strategies and land uses Plan for the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture 10 Department of Environment and Primary Industries (2013) Agriculture Productivity Group Business Plan 2013-2017, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 11 Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Hume Strategy; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 20102020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 12 Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010 -2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 13 Department of Planning and Community Development (2012) Hume Region Rural Land Use Study, report prepared by urban enterprise, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 14 Parsons Brinckerhoff and RMCG (2008) Campaspe, Greater Shepparton and Moira Regional Rural Land Use Strategy, report prepared for the Shire of Campaspe, Greater Shepparton City Council and Shire of Moira, Bendigo 15 Regional Development Victoria (2013) Hume Strategy Regional Plan Key Priorities 2012/13, State Government of Victoria, Wangaratta 16 Department of Planning and Community Development (2013) Draft Hume Regional Growth Plan; An integrated, strategic land use plan for the Hume Region, June, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 4 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Respond to a changing irrigation landscape Minimise fragmentation of strategic agricultural land Avoid conflicting land uses and activities Maintain and enhance infrastructure supporting rural industry The Goulburn Valley has a number of regional competitive advantages including: Suitability of the climate and natural resource base, such as soil and land capability, to fruit growing Availability of reliable, high quality water resources and upgraded water delivery infrastructure, providing a competitive advantage (particularly for irrigated agriculture), which is likely to be become more important in the future under the influence of climate variability and change and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan Located within the strategically important Melbourne-Canberra-Sydney (Hume corridor) and Melbourne-Brisbane (Goulburn Valley corridor) national road and rail transport corridors Critical mass of growers to support a large fruit and vegetable processing industry, estimated to generate $1.7 billion annually.17 These points are discussed further in following sections. 1.2.4 Industry priorities Horticulture Australia Limited’s (HAL) vision is for horticulture to provide a valued contribution to Australia’s national well-being, through the profitable production of Australian grown, high quality and sustainable horticultural produce. HAL makes research and development (R&D) and marketing investment decisions, in partnership with industry. The HAL strategic goals that are relevant to this roadmap are: Deliver new information and knowledge Build consumer demand (domestically and internationally) Enhance industry skills and capability. 18 Unlike other Research and Development Corporations (RDCs), HAL does not have formal contact mechanisms with horticulture levy payers. HAL’s Constitution requires that it works through horticulture Peak Industry Bodies, as representatives of levy payers, to achieve outcomes for its member industries Figure 1-1). Funding is provided from levies and voluntary contributions from industry, including Apple and Pear Australia Limited (APAL), Summerfruit Australia (SAL), SPC Ardmona and Fruit Growers Victoria, that are matched by the Australian government. Total investments exceed $100 million per annum. Of this approximately $80 million is invested in industry-aligned R&D projects, $17 million in marketing projects, and $2.5 million in broader strategic and transformational R&D. Priorities are guided by the National Strategic Research Priorities 19, Rural R&D Priorities (productivity and adding value, supply chain and markets, natural resource 17 Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010 -2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 18 Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) Strategic Plan 2012-2015, Sydney 19 Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research (2013) Strategic Research Priorities, Australian Government, Canberra RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 5 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final management, climate variability and change, and biosecurity) 20 and HAL’s investment program.21 Horticulture Australia Limited R&D Marketing Across industry program 42 commodity groups and associated Peak Industry Bodies (PIBs) Roadmap relevant PIBs: Apple and Pear Australia Ltd. Canned Fruits Industry Council of Australia Cherry Growers Australia Inc. Australian Nashi Growers Association Ltd. Summerfruit Australia Figure 1-1: Overview of industry structure relevant to the roadmap While this is complex arrangement, for the purpose of this roadmap the following five main commodity groups will be considered: apple and pear, canned fruit, cherry, nashi, and summer fruit. These commodity groups are all represented by Peak Industry Bodies, which include grower involvement. The industry priorities for these commodity groups are outlined in Table 1-1. 20 Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2007) Rural Research and Development Priorities, Australian Government, Canberra 21 Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) Strategic Plan 2012-2015, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 6 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Table 1-1: Overview of industry priorities22 Commodity Priorities Fund base Apple and pear Improve sales volume by 5% for apples & maintain pear sales volume Produce High Quality Apples & Pears at Internationally Competitive Prices Provide a supportive operating environment Levy Voluntary contributions Canned fruit Meet consumer needs (human nutrition) Improve productivity (crop production) Pursue the efficient use of industry resources (industry analysis) Voluntary contributions Cherry Continuously improve the efficiency of cherry production and packhouse To facilitate a profitable production sector by increasing demand for Australian cherries in line with increasing supply To ensure the Australian cherry industry has appropriate and sufficient capacity to manage change and industry expansion Levy Nashi Summer fruit23 Voluntary contributions The Nashi industry is currently in the progress of updating its Industry Strategic Investment Plan Levy Levy Increase demand and improve market performance Reduce costs in the production and supply chain Improve quality and consistency of produce Adapt to climate and water supply changes Improve industry cohesion and development Voluntary contributions Voluntary contributions The National RD&E framework seeks to consolidate investment for sectors through specific states. This framework has driven investment in the fruit growing industry over the past decade. The Framework describes RD&E commitment and investment by Australia’s State and Commonwealth agricultural agencies (largely the State DPIs and CSIRO) for the Australian horticultural industries. The Framework nominates agencies, which take on the national ‘Major Priority’, ‘Support’ and ‘Link’ roles, for RD&E, for the main horticultural crops. ‘Major Priority’ agencies agree to assume a national leadership role where the specified crop becomes a major priority for RD&E investment by that agency. Accordingly, the agency undertakes to give a high priority to funding research, infrastructure and national coordination, for that crop. As previously highlighted, DEPI plays a ‘major role’ at a national level in the delivery of RD&E for pome and stone fruit (Figure 1-2). DEPI aims to support the fruit growing industry through: Grower adoption of new technologies whilst ensuring efficient resource management 22 Horticulture Australia Limited (2013) HAL Call 2013 for 2014/15 Industry Priorities; apple and pear, canned fruit, cherry, nashi, summer fruit, Sydney 23 Summer fruit includes peach, nectarine, plum and apricot RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 7 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Horticulture-specific networks providing industries with links to relevant information and increasing the capacity and leadership of industry associations and service providers Development of market opportunities and provision of assistance to industry to be more internationally competitive in the global market place. Horticulture Australia Limited Apple and Pear Australia Ltd. Canning Fruit Industry Council of Australia Ltd. Cherry Growers Australia Inc. Australian Nashi Growers Association Ltd. Summerfruit Australia National Horticultural Research Network R,D&E Framework major priority state Victoria: Victoria: Tasmania: Victoria: Victoria: Plant health Crop production Environment Plant health Crop production Environment Crop production Plant health Post harvest Plant health Crop production Environment Plant health Post harvest Figure 1-2: Major priority states for roadmap commodity groups In recent years, most government agencies have been required to adjust their budgets as governments respond to economic pressures. State agricultural agencies and CSIRO have not been exempt from these influences, which have flowed through to their research, development and extension (RD&E) divisions. A recent analysis was undertaken by the National Horticultural Research Network (NHRN)24. The investment snapshot showed that in 2012/13, a total of nearly $113 million was invested in horticultural RD&E in Australia. Some 65% of this ($73.4 million) was delivered through the NHRN agencies. This includes $48.4 million of direct investment by the agencies from their own Treasury funding allocations. Over the period 2008/9 to 2012/13, the total value of work delivered through the agencies decreased by 10.5%. There was also a 6% decrease in FTEs in the (shorter) period 2011 to 2012/13. Total investment in the fruit industry by and through the Victorian State Government declined from $8.62 million in 2008/09 to $6.86 million in 2012/13 with an associated reduction in personnel involved in RD&E. In the Goulburn Valley overall investment in the horticulture industry has also experienced a decline. Personnel involved in RD&E have reduced with a shift in how National Horticultural Research Network (2013) Capability and Investment Analysis A snapshot of Australia’s horticultural research, development and extension capability and associated investment, November (Unpublished) 24 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 8 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final the horticulture industry is supported with the implementation of a program to assist industry service providers in the delivery of extension activities known as the Horticulture Industry Network (HIN).25 The objectives of the HIN Program are to: Facilitate effective networks that capture opportunities and work together in response to market signals, needs and demands Develop innovative web-based knowledge information acquisition, sharing and adoption management technologies for Support target industries to fast track information acquisition and knowledge management to improve productivity, increase profits and grow exports. 26 For apple and pears, RD&E is coordinated through the APAL Productivity, Irrigation, Pests and Soils (PIPS) program (2009-14). PIPS comprises six projects including: tree structure; integrated pest and disease management (IPDM); soils, water and nutrients; precision fertigation; profitable pears; maximising productivity and quality of new pear varieties; and technical and industry communications.27 25 Pers. comms. (2013) Sze Flett, Director, Horticulture Services & Acting Director, Grains Services, Department of Environment an Primary Industries, 28 October 26 Horticulture Industry Network (2012) About HIN; Better Services to Farmers, http://www.hin.com.au/about-hin, accessed 8 November 2013 27 Apple and Pear Australia Limited (undated) Productivity, Irrigation, Pests and Soils (PIPS), http://apal.org.au/research-developmentextension/projects/productivity-irrigation-pests-and-soils-pips/, accessed 18 November 2013 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 9 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 1.3 Goulburn Valley industry context Key messages The Goulburn Valley region has been a significant producer of fruit (both fresh and processed) for decades Horticulture contributes 30% to the regions’ economy and is a significant employer in the Goulburn Valley. The value of fruit production in the Goulburn Valley was $440.5 million for apple and pear, cherry, nashi and summer fruit in 2011 The value-add in food processing generates approximately $1.7 billion per year, which includes SPC Ardmona, Campbell’s Soups, Unilever and Kagome In the past, the fruit growing industry has demonstrated resilience and the ability to adapt when presented with challenges There are numerous compounding threats that the fruit industry currently needs to contend with. There are also many opportunities that the industry must work collaboratively to grasp. 1.3.1 A brief history: 1980s onwards The Goulburn Valley sub-region including the four Local Government Areas of Moira, Strathbogie, Shepparton and Campaspe in northern Victoria is of national significance for horticulture and fruit production (Figure 1-3).28 Figure 1-3: Location of the Goulburn Valley The region has been characterised by change over decades with fluctuations in the dominance of processed versus fresh production and differences in the preference for 28 Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010 -2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 10 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final particular commodities. The region has long been recognised for its’ competitive advantage with access to natural resources (water, soil and climate), infrastructure (transport, irrigation system) and a skilled workforce. The region has been dependant on fruit production for the domestic and processed fruit markets. The relevant prominence of these sectors has varied recently with the fresh fruit domestic market increasing in prominence over the past decade. Increasingly, the Goulburn Valley has become a participant in the global fruit production market, opening opportunities for the export of fresh market fruit. However, this has also been associated with challenges such as increasing competition from processed fruit imports. Revenue from fruit growing in the Goulburn Valley has increased over time although production volumes have reduced. The industry in the region has responded well in recent years despite prolonged drought conditions and a high Australian dollar. For example, Goulburn Valley growers have planted trees at a faster rate due to the increase in density of plantings, and value of production increased by 120% from 2001 to 2011, which is faster than the rest of Victoria or Australia. 29 At an industry workshop in September 2013 the following key themes and issues facing Goulburn Valley growers were raised. 29 The Asia Pacific Consulting Group (2013) Goulburn Valley Industry Audit & Trend Analysis, report prepared for the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group, September, Melbourne RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 11 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Table 1-2: Key themes and issues facing the Goulburn Valley30,31 Theme Issue Global economy Rising international wealth, especially Asia and global population growth Change in the exchange rate ($AUD), including volatility Increasing market liberalisation through gradual removal of trade barriers Increasing foreign investment Opportunities for fresh market export dependent on compliance with market access issues and the maintenance of profitability Domestic economy Continued market concentration in food retailing and processing Continuing high labour costs Increasing access to finance Significant investment by international businesses in food processing Demographics Aging labour force in rural areas and migration towards urban centres Consumer preferences Increased desire for fresh and healthy produce Expectation of quality assurance and food safety Increased desire for sustainably produced food (‘clean and green’) Interest in traceability and provenance Science and technology Ongoing threat to biosecurity Availability and adoption of biotechnology Digital revolution (e.g. National Broadband Network, smart phone applications) Innovation and development of production systems, processing and transport Infrastructure Irrigation modernisation Improvements in transport infrastructure Environment Climate change Environmental management Policy Implementation of Direct Action Plan (current federal government climate policy) Reduction in consumptive water entitlements Increased competition from competing land uses The industry and individual businesses in the region have historically demonstrated their resilience to these changes with: A willingness to adopt new technologies and practices A desire to ensure world’s best practice The ability to work collectively at a regional level The ability to adapt to changing consumer needs The ability to find and supply new markets. However, in recent years the capacity for the region to adapt has been limited due to a number of compounding factors. This presents an opportunity for the industry to now respond in a more coordinated and integrated way. 30 Deloitte Access Economics (2013) Understanding the Food Opportunities for Northern Victoria; Interim Themes, Issues and Implications, prepared for Regional Development Victoria, Melbourne 31 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Industry Roadmap Development Workshop 20 September 2013, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Tatura RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 12 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 1.3.2 Opportunities and threats The opportunities and threats for the fruit industry in the Goulburn Valley are outlined below. These have been identified and validated in consultation with industry. 32 Table 1-3: Opportunities and threats for the fruit industry in the Goulburn Valley Opportunities Threats Efficient productions systems Availability and competitive price of land Security of water (in comparison to other regions) Associated infrastructure for the fruit industry (some underutilised) Proximity to markets Favourable climatic conditions Variety of market chains and markets, with the ability to be nimble and respond to trends Efficiency and quality of production (sweeter produce due to higher number of heat units and physiological response) Safe and clean food production and image of sustainable ‘green’ production Opportunities for the industry to co-invest with DEPI in relation to RD & E and market development and access Development of new niche markets e.g. cider 1.3.3 High cost of production, particularly inputs such as labour Significant level of regulation Adverse climate conditions – drought and flood High Australian dollar Competition from new market entrants, both domestic and overseas e.g. South Africa, Chile Reduced global competitiveness relative to other countries e.g. cost of labour, government support and subsidies There is no longer an advantage of being counter cyclical with the northern hemisphere as market supply is year round Market/trade barriers e.g. medium-term outlook for market access is lacking and has been predominately short-term, current varieties not suited to Asian market or palette, competition from other southern hemisphere countries Reliance on domestic markets, which frequently offer high average returns Opportunistic export activity and lack of focus on the long-term export market Over capitalisation and requirement to maintain and/or replace plant Existence of smaller properties clustered in Shepparton East and Cobram that are looking to exit industry and may pose a biosecurity threat (map in Appendix 1) Cost of compliance e.g. biosecurity Value and economic contribution Regional economic growth and performance Victoria’s fruit industries are important employers and contributors to many regional economies particularly in the Goulburn Valley. In Victoria, the gross value of fruit production (excluding grapes) was $1,431.3 million in 2010-11.33 The value of fruit production in the Goulburn Valley was $440.5 million for apple and pear, cherry, nashi and summer fruit in 2011.34 Horticulture combined contributes to 30 per cent of the value of agricultural production ($485 million) in the region, which is comparable to 31 per cent for dairy ($497 million) (Figure 1-4).35 32 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Industry Roadmap Development Workshop 20 September 2013, Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Tatura 33 Department of Environment and Primary Industries (various) Fruit Industry Profiles, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 34 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo 35 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Agriculture in the Shepparton Region of Victoria, 2013, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Canberra RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 13 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Figure 1-4: Value of production based on agricultural output in the Goulburn Valley36 The value-add in food processing generates approximately $1.7 billion per year, which includes SPC Ardmona, Campbell’s Soups, Unilever and Kagome.37 Over the past two decades there has been a change in economic growth for the Goulburn Valley. Economic growth stagnated in the past decade, although in the previous decade the region experienced stronger growth. The trend demonstrates slower growth due in part to declining productivity, slowing population growth and lower levels of labour force participation.38 The drought and exchange rates may have also contributed to this. Industry trends and structural change Nationally, horticulture employs 59,500 people with a further 6,250 employed in processing.39 This represents approximately one-third of those employed in agriculture.40 Agriculture and manufacturing are the largest employers in the Goulburn Valley, based on 2012 data. This is followed by retail trade and health care. There has been significant growth in agricultural employment in the last five years (2007 to 2012) when compared to 1992 to 2007.41 Agriculture, forestry and fishing employs 11 per cent of the region’s workforce (6,456 people). Of these employees, 95 per cent worked in agriculture, and 4 per cent in support services for the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. In addition, an estimated 4,194 people were employed in food product manufacturing.42 36 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Agriculture in the Shepparton Region of Victoria, 2013, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Canberra 37 Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010 -2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 38 Regional Development Victoria (2013) Goulburn Valley Overview, presented to the Goulburn Valley Industry and Employment Taskforce, 3 September, Shepparton 39 Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2012) Horticulture Fact Sheet, Australian Government, Canberra 40 Horticulture Australia Limited (2010) Value of Horticulture, http://www.horticulture.com.au/areas_of_Investment/Environment/Climate/value_horticulture.asp, accessed 18 November 2013 41 Regional Development Victoria (2013) Goulburn Valley Overview, presented to the Goulburn Valley Industry and Employment Taskforce, 3 September, Shepparton 42 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Agriculture in the Shepparton Region of Victoria, 2013, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Canberra RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 14 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final SPC Ardmona operates three facilities in the region and currently directly employs approximately 1,500 people on a casual and full time basis and supports a total of 2,700 jobs in the Goulburn Valley. 43 SPC Ardmona directly contributes $63 million to the local economy through salaries and wages and provides apprenticeships, training programs, work experience programs and graduate student programs to young people in the region.44 There is a solid labour base in the Goulburn Valley fruit growing industry, which includes skilled staff for technical and management positions as well as picking and packer roles. Availability of specialised skilled labour is frequently an issue, and considered a constraint to further industry development. Agriculture also has the highest number of businesses in the region (4,200), who mostly employ less than 5 people.45 Demographics and labour market trends Population growth has continued to increase over the past decade in the Goulburn Valley, predominantly in Greater Shepparton, whilst Moira is stagnating and Campaspe declining. Goulburn Valley maintains higher unemployment rates than regional Victoria, particularly in Shepparton. Those that are employed work more hours on average per week than regional Victorians do (on average).46 43 SPC Ardmona have recently announced the consolidation of the three facilities to one centrally located facility in Shepparton SPC Ardmona (2013) Media Release; SPC Ardmona’s disappointment as productivity commission’s accelerated report denies provisional safeguards, 26 September, Shepparton 45 Regional Development Victoria (2013) Goulburn Valley Overview, presented to the Goulburn Valley Industry and Employment Taskforce, 3 September, Shepparton 46 Regional Development Victoria (2013) Goulburn Valley Overview, presented to the Goulburn Valley Industry and Employment Taskforce, 3 September, Shepparton 44 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 15 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2 Current situation: the Goulburn Valley fruit growing industry 2.1 Market analysis Key messages The Goulburn Valley is the major producer of processed and fresh fruit at a national scale Export is a small but important component of fruit production in the area with the opportunity to grow the Asian export market. Major fruits exported include apples, cherries, nectarines, peach, plum and pear Import is relatively small with the predominant fruit being cherries. 2.1.1 Domestic production Fruit production in the Goulburn Valley contributes significantly to total national production and value. Apple and pear production and value are highest when compared with stonefruit (Table 2-1). The Goulburn Valley currently produces: 99 per cent of the national nashi crop 90 per cent of the national deciduous processed fruit production47 86 per cent of the national pear crop 70 per cent of the national peach crop 49 per cent of the national plum crop 43 per cent of the national apricot crop 28 per cent of the national apple crop 25 per cent of the national nectarine crop. Table 2-1: Goulburn Valley fruit production and gross value48 Commodity Volume (tonnes) National production (%) Value ($) National value (%) Apple 82,617 28% 225,539,960 38% Apricot 5,768 43% 4,807,940 23% Cherry 1,184 11% 9,937,640 11% Nectarine 9,074 25% 22,729,924 23% 42,425 70% 43,530,019 47% 105,660 86% 116,000,000 66% 7,724 49% 17,972,578 39% Peach Pear (incl. nashi) Plum 47 Department of Primary Industries (2006) Socio-Economic Profile of the Goulburn Broken Catchment including all of the Shepparton Irrigation Region, prepared for the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton 48 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 16 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Most of Victoria’s fruit production is consumed domestically and is considered the primary market. Imports from China, America and New Zealand pose a threat, to the domestic market for stone and pome fruit. This will require Goulburn Valley fruit growers to remain globally competitive. 2.1.2 Fruit exports Fruit export in Australia was worth $376 million in 2011/12. Victoria contributes over one-third of the nation’s fruit exports.49 The export of Australian fruit is concentrated in the Asian market, except for pears which are predominately exported to Pacific and North American countries (Table 2-2). Table 2-2: Australian fruit exports by top three markets in 2010/1150 Commodity Top three markets (tonnes) Top three markets ($ million) Apple Papua New Guinea (769.55) Indonesia (766.60) United Kingdom (373.49) Indonesia (2.34) Papua New Guinea (1.40) United Kingdom (1.07) Apricot United Arab Emirates (137.07) Hong Kong (100.96) Singapore (18.79) United Arab Emirates (0.74) Hong Kong (0.29) France (0.13) Cherry Hong Kong (211.41) Taiwan (210.77) Thailand (161.70) Taiwan (3.14) Hong Kong (3.06) Thailand (1.85) Nashi Fiji (7.94) Papua New Guinea (6.72) United Arab Emirates (2.86) Papua New Guinea (0.02) Fiji (0.01) United Arab Emirates (0.01) Nectarine Hong Kong (1,672.72) United Arab Emirates (368.50) Taiwan (259.36) Hong Kong (4.41) United Arab Emirates (1.30) Taiwan (0.64) Peach United Arab Emirates (441.64) Singapore (285.45) Hong Kong (166.34) United Arab Emirates (1.36) Singapore (1.07) Hong Kong (0.75) Pear Canada (1,545.33) New Zealand (1,347.56) New Caledonia (402.51) Canada (2.47) New Zealand (2.05) New Caledonia (0.53) Plum Hong Kong (1,696.05) Singapore (611.97) United Arab Emirates (433.67) Hong Kong (5.47) Singapore (1.57) United Arab Emirates (0.30) The reliance on Asia as the principal market for 70 per cent of Victoria’s agri-food export production means that the Goulburn Valley will need to continue to respond to the shifting demography, rising incomes and changing tastes and preferences of Asian consumers. Competition for market share and value chain is primarily from South Africa and Chile for fruit exports to Asia. In order to increase export competitiveness it is important that Goulburn Valley fruit growers continue to consider: Product quality and differentiation Better understanding consumer demands Value chain management of the traditional ’supply chain’ 49 Department of Primary Industries (2012) Victorian Food and Fibre Export Performance 2011-12 Financial Year, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 50 Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 17 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Innovation to keep pace with changing markets Market access requirements and restrictions Cost of production and price Supply capability in continuity, consistency and quantity Marketing and promotion to deliver customer value, quality and satisfaction at a profit Understanding competitors to attract and retain market share Economies of scale due to expansion and consolidation. 51 While relatively small, Australian fruit exports have declined over the past decade both in volume and value, particularly apples and nashi (Figure 2-1). Department of Primary Industries (2010) Victoria’s Southern Hemisphere competitors for exports to Asia, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne 51 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 18 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 35,000.00 30,000.00 Volume (tonnes) 25,000.00 20,000.00 15,000.00 10,000.00 5,000.00 0.00 Apple Apricot Cherry Nashi Nectarine Peach Pear Plum Year 2002/03 Volume (tonnes) 2010/11 Volume (tonnes) 45 40 35 Value ($ million) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apple Apricot Cherry Nashi Nectarine Peach Pear Plum Year 2002/03 Value ($ million) 2002/03 Commodity Apple Volume (tonnes) 2010/11 Value ($ million) 2010/11 Value ($ million) Volume (tonnes) 2002/03 to 2010/11 Value ($ million) Volume % change Value % change 32,480.00 41.37 2,508.52 6.02 -92% -85% Apricot 228.00 0.8 310.15 1.47 36% 84% Cherry 1,720.00 13.74 939.31 13 -45% -5% 104.00 0.43 20.97 0.06 -80% -86% Nectarine 7,972.00 22.69 2,810.21 8.21 -65% -64% Peach 1,587.00 5.54 1,155.85 4.45 -27% -20% Pear 17,652.00 22.41 4,826.27 7.47 -73% -67% Plum 10,733.00 26.22 3,418.90 9.21 -68% -65% Nashi Figure 2-1: Australian fruit export market over the past decade52,53 52 Horticulture Australia Limited (2004) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 19 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final The value of Victorian pome and stonefruit exports was $33 million in 2011/12. This was predominately from fresh stonefruit followed by fresh pears (Figure 2-2). Dried pome and stonefruit has a minimal contribution to export value. 25 Value (AUD$ million) 20 15 10 5 0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Year Fresh stonefruit Fresh pears Dried stonefruit Fresh apples Dried apples Figure 2-2: Victoria pome and stonefruit export trends54 53 Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia, 2011-12, Australian Government, Canberra 54 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 20 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2.1.3 Fruit imports Apple and pear imports are mainly from Asian markets, while stonefruit is predominately sourced from Pacific and North American countries (Table 2-3). Cherry is the major import commodity into Australia. Table 2-3: Australian fruit imports by top three markets in 2010/1155 Commodity Top three markets (tonnes) Top three markets ($ million) Apple Apricot 55 China (702.99) China (1.23) No other import countries No other import countries New Zealand (857.54) New Zealand (3.85) No other import countries No other import countries Cherry Nashi None None Nectarine None None Peach None None Pear Plum None United States (2,592.08) New Zealand (20.40) Mexico (18.32) China (3,439.65) South Korea (85.00) Others (36.60) United States (18.79) New Zealand (0.22) Mexico (0.05) China (3.50) South Korea (0.24) None Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 21 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Again, while relatively small, the import of fruit into Australia has increased over the past decade in relation to value, particularly pears and apples (Figure 2-3). 25 Value ($ million) 20 15 10 5 0 Apple Apricot Cherry Nashi Nectarine Peach Pear Plum Commodity 2002/03 Value ($ million) 2002/03 Commodity Volume (tonnes) 2010/11 Value ($ million) 2010/11 Value ($ million) Volume (tonnes) 2002/03 to 2010/11 Value ($ million) Volume % change Value % change Apple N/A 0.59 702.99 1.23 N/A 108% Apricot N/A 2.53 857.54 3.85 N/A 52% Cherry N/A 10.03 2,633.91 19.07 N/A 90% Nashi N/A 0 0 0 N/A 0% Nectarine N/A 0 0 0 N/A 0% Peach N/A 0.003 0 0 N/A -100% Pear N/A 1.49 3,561.24 3.78 N/A 154% Plum N/A 0 0 0 N/A 0% Figure 2-3: Australian fruit import market over the past decade56,57 56 57 Horticulture Australia Limited (2004) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 22 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2.2 Trend analysis This section builds on the industry audit and trend analysis undertaken for the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group 58 and other data. Key messages Fruit production volumes in the Goulburn Valley declined by 7 per cent from 2001 to 2011 however the value increased by 119 per cent The number of fruit growers in the region has declined by 28 per cent over this period with consolidation of properties The area of fruit production in the Goulburn Valley increased by 26 per cent to 11,500 ha over this period with accompanied increase in planting density59 There has been an increase in the planting of trees over the past decade, primarily fresh market varieties for stone fruit Fruit intake for processing has declined significantly over the past decade, with a reduction in peach and pear intake for processing by 53 per cent and 65 per cent respectively by SPC Ardmona from 2008 to 2015 (forecast) Consumer analysis highlights increased demand for fresh fruit and innovative processed products. 2.2.1 Fruit production and value While fruit production in the Goulburn Valley has reduced by 7 per cent from 2001 to 2011 to 254,000 tonnes, the value of production over this period has increased by 119 per cent to $440 million (Figure 2-4). This compares to the Australian decline in production of 15 per cent from 2001 to 2011 and 4 per cent for the remainder of Victoria. The value of Goulburn Valley fruit production has performed strongly in comparison to the national average of 71 per cent growth from 2001 to 2011 and the remainder of Victoria with 102 per cent.60 58 The Asia Pacific Consulting Group (2013) Goulburn Valley Industry Audit & Trend Analysis, report prepared for the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group, September, Melbourne 59 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) 60 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 23 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 300,000,000 500,000,000 450,000,000 250,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 150,000,000 250,000,000 Value ($) Produc on volume (kg) 350,000,000 200,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 0 0 2001 2006 2011 Year Produc on volume (Goulburn Valley) Region Production (kg) 2001 2006 2011 % change Australia 657,064,234 604,140,487 560,258,842 -15% Goulburn Valley 272,678,344 268,932,536 254,453,087 -7% 80,622,675 92,172,668 77,213,802 -4% Australia 658,699,724 829,516,843 1,124,124,052 71% Goulburn Valley 201,516,236 266,520,922 440,518,061 119% Victorian remainder 103,638,959 163,358,301 209,666,282 102% Victorian remainder Value ($) Value of produc on (Goulburn Valley) Figure 2-4: Volume and value of production of fruit in the Goulburn Valley 61 2.2.2 Fruit producers, area and trees The number of fruit producers in Australia, Victoria and the Goulburn Valley has decreased by 22 to 34 per cent from 2001 to 2011 (Figure 2-5). Fruit producer numbers in the Goulburn Valley remained constant from 2001 to 2006, then fell away sharply compared to the gradual decline in other areas. This is consistent with continued farm consolidation and restructure in the fruit growing industry. The decrease in the number of producers in the Goulburn Valley has been less than the Australian average, but slightly higher than the remainder of Victoria. 62 There are currently 306 fruit and nut farms63 in the Shepparton region64, which is 9 per cent of the total number of farms in the region.65 61 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) 62 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) 63 Where the estimated value of agricultural operations is more than $5,000 RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 24 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final However, over the period of 2001 to 2011 the area of fruit production in the Goulburn Valley increased by 26 per cent to 11,500 ha, compared to the Australian average of 9 per cent and the remainder of Victoria of 33 per cent.66 Density of plantings has also increased to 509 (pear) to 1,375 (plum) trees per ha for pome and stonefruit.67 The increase in area was most prominent in the area of Goulburn Valley apples, while pears declined slightly. 1,200 14,000 12,000 1,000 10,000 8,000 600 6,000 Area planted (ha) Number of producers 800 400 4,000 200 2,000 0 0 2001 2006 2011 Year Number of Goulburn Valley producers (Note: 1 farm can be 2+ producers with mul ple fruits) Region Producers (no.)68 2006 2011 % change Australia 8,640 7,393 5,691 -34% Goulburn Valley 1,112 1,110 806 -28% Victorian remainder 1,119 1,055 878 -22% 29,996 31,448 32,551 9% Goulburn Valley 9,195 10,508 11,563 26% Victorian remainder 3,956 4,843 5,251 33% Australia Area (ha) 2001 Area planted (Goulburn Valley) Figure 2-5: Number of producers and area planted in the Goulburn Valley69 Goulburn Valley growers have planted trees at a faster rate than the Australian average or remainder of Victoria, with a 44 per cent increase in the number of trees compared with 11 per cent and 39 per cent respectively (Figure 2-6). This increased number of trees highlights the trend to modern high density plantings. 64 The Shepparton region in this case includes the Greater Shepparton, Moira and Campaspe Local Government Areas, which may yield slightly different results for number of farms compared with the six Goulburn Valley SLAs 65 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Agriculture in the Shepparton Region of Victoria, 2013, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Canberra 66 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo 67 SPC Ardmona (2012) Goulburn Valley Orchard Census 2012, Goulburn Valley Orchard Census Committee, December, Shepparton 68 Note: 1 farm can be 2+ producers with multiple fruits 69 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 25 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 30,000,000 25,000,000 Number of trees 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 2001 2006 2011 Year Australia Goulburn Valley Victorian remainder Figure 2-6: Number of trees planted in Australia, Goulburn Valley and the remainder of Victoria70 However, the increase in the number of trees in the Goulburn Valley has been primarily for the fresh market. More fresh varieties were planted compared with canned varieties from 2008 to 2012. Canned varieties were also removed at a faster rate compared with fresh varieties over the same period (Figure 2-7).71 400 300 200 Area of trees (ha) 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -100 -200 -300 -400 Year Can: Removed Fresh: Removed Can: Planted Fresh: Planted Figure 2-7: Planting and removal of fresh and canned varieties in the Goulburn Valley (ha)72 70 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo (includes apples, pears, nashi, peaches, nectarines, apricots, cherries and plums for Cobram, Shepparton-E, Shepparton, Shepparton-W, Rushworth, Rochester, Echuca and Kyabram SLAs) 71 SPC Ardmona (2012) Goulburn Valley Orchard Census 2012, Goulburn Valley Orchard Census Committee, December, Shepparton 72 SPC Ardmona (2012) Goulburn Valley Orchard Census 2012, Goulburn Valley Orchard Census Committee, December, Shepparton RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 26 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2.2.3 Fruit intake for processing The decrease in fruit intake for processing is having a significant impact on growers in the Goulburn Valley.73 The intake of peaches and pears proposed for 2014 is 42 per cent below 2013 level as outlined in Figure 2-8. A number of growers have argued that the reduction in fruit intakes would make their businesses unviable. SPC Ardmona has cited the following reasons for the increased imports of processed fruit products: The appreciation of the Australian dollar The dumping of imported products Supermarkets using low-cost imports to advance their private label product strategies.74 However, the intake of canning fruit is expected to plateau or slightly increase after 2014 based on 2015 forecasts.75 45,000 40,000 35,000 Volume (tonnes) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (forecast) 2015 (forecast) Year Peaches Pears Trend (Peaches) Trend (Pears) Peaches Year Tonnes Pears % change Tonnes Total % change % change 2008 40,227 - 31,242 - - 2009 39,160 -3% 28,499 -9% -5% 2010 31,843 -19% 19,152 -33% -25% 2011 27,851 -13% 19,046 -1% -8% 2012 30,751 10% 24,251 27% 17% 2013 25,852 -16% 16,947 -30% -22% 2014 (forecast) 16,000 -38% 9,000 -47% -42% 2015 (forecast) 19,000 19% 11,000 22% 20% Figure 2-8: SPC Ardmona peach and pear intake76 73 Australian Canning Fruit Growers Association (2013) SPC Ardmona Fruit Suppliers Survey Report, June, report prepared by John Wilson, General Manager of Fruit Growers Victoria Limited 74 Productivity Commission (2013) Safeguards Inquiry into the Import of Processed Fruit Products, Report No. 64, Australian Government, Canberra 75 Pers. comms. (2013) Simon Mills, Crop Supply Manager, SPC Ardmona, 24 October RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 27 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2.2.4 Consumer trends Apparent per capita domestic consumption of processed deciduous fruit decreased by about 37 per cent from 2002 to 2012. Over the same period, per capita consumption of fresh fruit for which data are available — apples, cherries, peaches, nectarines, grapes, oranges and pears — increased by about 14 per cent. Increased year round availability and improved quality has seen, over time, consumer preferences switch to fresh produce at the expense of preserved fruit products, particularly in cans. (sub. 45, p. 2).77 Increased demand for fresh fruit has been driven by: Increased consumer health concerns and preference for ‘clean and green’ produce Greater availability and improved quality and safety of fresh fruit Increased affluence and purchase of fresh fruit and vegetables Changing diet. Improvements in storage and transportation methods, and the expansion of seasonal availability due to the introduction of new varieties of fruit have also contributed to these trends.78 76 Australian Canning Fruit Growers Association (2013) Submission Safeguards Inquiry Into the Imports of Processed Fruit Production, Number 41, July, Shepparton, supplemented with pers. comms. (2013) Simon Mills, Crop Supply Manager, SPC Ardmona, 24 October 77 Productivity Commission (2013) Safeguards Inquiry into the Import of Processed Fruit Products, Report No. 64, Australian Government, Canberra 78 IBISWorld (2013) Fruit and Vegetable Processing in Australia, IBISWorld Industry Report C1140, Melbourne RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 28 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2.3 Competitive advantage of the Goulburn Valley Key messages The Goulburn Valley has a competitive advantage with its soils and land capability, ideal climate, water security and updated world class delivery system, availability and price of land, reduced pest and disease pressure, infrastructure and transport, skilled people and clean and safe produce. The Goulburn Valley has a number of competitive advantages for fruit growing now and into the future. These are outlined below. Table 2-4: Competitive advantage of the Goulburn Valley79 Factor Description Soils and land capability The majority of soils within the Goulburn Valley have been extensively mapped and classified according to their suitability for irrigation. Most of the land in this area is capable of being irrigated provided farm management practices address issues such as excessive leaching through highly permeable soils or water logging and salinity from low lying and impermeable soils. Climate The Goulburn Valley has a Mediterranean climate with generally hot dry summers with an average temperature of 30°C between December and February. In winter, June to August, the average temperature is 14°C with sufficient cold days to achieve the necessary chilling requirement for bud initiation in fruit crops. The average rainfall is around 450mm just over half of which falls between May and October. Water security Availability of reliable, high quality water resources, such as rivers and water infrastructure, providing a competitive advantage (particularly for irrigated agriculture), which is likely to be become more important in the future under the influence of climate change and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Availability and price of land The Goulburn Valley has an increased availability of land for fruit growing at more competitive prices than other fruit growing regions in Victoria, for example the Yarra Valley and Mornington Peninsula. There are also less urban-rural land use conflicts in relation to the ‘right to farm’. Reduced pest and disease pressure Production of crops in the Goulburn Valley is potentially susceptible to pest and disease incursion. However due to the variety of crops grown and the dry conditions, pest and disease pressure is likely to be low. Infrastructure and transport The region is ideally located for distribution of produce to any markets in SouthEastern Australia. Domestic markets served include Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide, as well as Brisbane and Newcastle via an excellent road and transport system with local transport companies operating this national network on a daily basis. Potentially this distribution advantage offers ready access to the 70% of the Australian population, which lives in the south-east seaboard. It also places the region in proximity to the major export ports of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Technical skills and knowledge Due to prior investment in the food production and processing sectors, the Goulburn Valley’s primary producers and processors are well-serviced and supported by advanced research, natural resource management, engineering, technology, organisational and support services in the region. ‘Clean and green’ balanced produce The Goulburn Valley is perceived as a region that produces ‘clean and green’ balanced produce. This is particularly important in export markets in gaining a competitive advantage. Sustainably produced food is meeting a change in consumer preference in these markets. Quality and safety The high quality and safety standards of Goulburn Valley fruit and products is a point of difference to competitors in both domestic and export markets. Premium products are suited to changing consumer preferences in some markets. 79 RMCG (2010) Capability of the GMID to Support Increased Production of Horticultural Crops, report prepared for Regional Development Victoria, Camberwell RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 29 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 3 Actions: achieving the vision 3.1 Role of government, industry and individual businesses The role of government, industry and individual businesses is important to consider in implementing the actions from this roadmap. These roles are outlined below. Table 3-1: Role of government, industry and individual businesses Tier Role Federal government Develop and implement policies and programs that ensure Australia's agricultural, fisheries, food and forestry industries remain competitive, profitable and sustainable. State government Enable Victoria's agriculture and food sectors to maintain and enhance a reputation for world-class food by sustainably increasing wealth, employment and investment in regional communities. Local government Secure and promote the future of agriculture at the local and regional level through the provision of planning, land use, economic development, community development and advocacy services. Peak bodies The Peak Industry Body (PIB) for an industry is responsible for recommending to HAL the establishment of, and any changes to, statutory levies. The PIBs of horticulture industries are the members of HAL and guide the investment in RD&E through their Industry Advisory Committee (IAC). Service providers These industry participants provide advice and goods to horticulture businesses. Supply chain The supply chain includes all participants in the post farm gate involved in the storage, processing, transport, and marketing. Government Industry Individual businesses RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Ensure continued productive, profitable and sustainable fruit growing businesses in the Goulburn Valley region through responding to market signals in strategic, collaborative and timely manner. Are involved in the investment and utilisation of research, development and marketing activities managed by HAL through the payment of levies and voluntary contributions and the involvement with their PIB. Page 30 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 3.2 Actions for government, industry and individual businesses There are a number of actions that require implementation to ensure the vision for the Goulburn Valley is achieved. Actions are described as a program of works and it is expected that these will be undertaken through a staged approach. These include: Provide structural adjustment support Improve partnerships and collaboration Encourage innovation and adoption Coordinate industry export and domestic market focus Support business development. The implementation of these programs will require a desire and commitment for government, industry and businesses to work together. Prioritisation and timing of each program of works requires further development by the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group (GVFGSSG) and relevant partners. 3.2.1 Provide structural adjustment support The fruit industry in the Goulburn Valley requires assistance in adjusting to changing global conditions and reduced demand for processed fruit varieties. This response to structural adjustment must involve a combined approach of federal, state and local government and the industry members. 1. Facilitate transition of SPC Ardmona (Federal, State Government) The region requires support for SPC Ardmona to continue to operate in the Goulburn Valley recognising their significant national and regional economic contribution. A $50 million government grant application to support restructuring and for future packaged fruit and vegetable innovation was recently submitted to federal and state government. 2. Assist transition, adaptation and restructuring (Federal, State Government, industry) The state government can assist in structural adjustment. In the short-term, the current measures in place for the Goulburn Valley should be supported. This includes one-to-one support for affected fruit growers, financial counseling, horticulture in transition workshops, the Fruit Industry Employment Program, and steps to reduce biosecurity risks. Government should consider facilitating ownership transition through concessional loan packages for growers looking to purchase orchards as well as enabling those growers that wish to exit the industry with dignity. This would focus on areas where there are smaller properties with growers looking to exit e.g. Shepparton East, Cobram (map provided in Appendix 1). Rural Finance in partnership with the State Government would be well positioned to undertake this role which would also reduce the biosecurity risk to the region (in line with the new state and federal biosecurity legislation). Industry can work with government to identify businesses that are unviable and promote elements and practices essential for a profitable industry. RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 31 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 3. Communicate local planning provisions (Local Government) To assist in this structural adjustment the local planning provisions in relation to subdivision or excision of dwellings need to be communicated with industry and growers. 3.2.2 Improve partnerships and collaboration The horticulture industry is highly fragmented with approximately 42 commodity groups. The Goulburn Valley fruit industry roadmap includes five of these commodity groups. To ensure a consistent voice and a strong presence there is an urgent need for better collaboration and robust partnerships. 1. Support changes in HAL and National RD&E framework (Federal, State Government and industry) HAL are currently reviewing their services and delivery mechanisms. This could potentially result in the formation of larger commodity groups with stronger links to members. The industry needs to engage with HAL and support the streamlining of RD&E and marketing. DEPI plays a primary role in delivery of RD&E services and must work closely with industry. 2. Improve collaboration within industry (Federal, State Government and industry) Collaboration within industry needs to be improved with the urgent need to present a unified voice for industry. Partnerships between the fruit industry groups are beginning to form and should be facilitated and strengthened. This could involve the five commodity groups having a more coordinated approach and preparing joint submissions when seeking investment for RD&E through HAL. Most growers produce more than one commodity (eg apples and stone fruit) and the significant production and marketing issues are often common. 3. Develop industry and regional leadership (State, Local Government, industry and business) A program should be implemented to support business development and leadership and foster development of the skill and knowledge base of the region. The leadership program will focus on regional and industry development and coordination of peak industry bodies at a state and regional level. 3.2.3 Encourage innovation and adoption 1. Inform research and development (Federal and State Government) Research and development is prioritised and jointly funded with State Government through the commodity groups and HAL. The potential exists for the industry and region to be more proactive in directing R&D and ensuring the information is utilised by the industry. The state government has a primary role in conducting R&D for the fruit industry. Stronger links between the peak industry bodies and DEPI will facilitate the delivery of effective and efficient R&D. RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 32 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final 2. Establish the Tatura horticultural centre for excellence (State Government) Commitment to facilitating better coordination and dissemination of RD&E and marketing information could be achieved through the establishment of a centre for excellence. The centre could include integration and coordination of: Implementation of the national RD&E framework at a regional level Regional R&D priorities e.g. cost of production benchmarking Industry extension services Negotiation, markets and access. The centre would provide a structure and impetus for improved coordination and central identity for the Goulburn Valley industry. 3. Provide extension services (Federal and State Government) DEPI can provide extension services to the fruit industry through the existing HIN and focusing on: Providing information on more efficient production systems and technology Demonstrating what works through trusted and independent industry channels e.g. APAL Future Orchards Program, Horticulture Industry Network, benchmarking, promoting continuous improvement, DEPI linking R&D into extension material for industry Tailoring programs for particular grower segments of the Goulburn Valley Establishing informal groups to assist in the development of export market relationships and provide a feedback loop for R&D priorities Implementing the enhanced business planning (EBP) program to supplement the irrigation whole farm planning program operated through the CMA. This is not currently available to growers affected by the SPC Ardmona contracts due to oversubscription in 2013/14 Providing DEPI Food And Fibre Marketing Cooperative Grants. 3.2.4 Coordinate industry export and domestic market focus The development of both domestic and export markets is critical to the future success of the fruit growing industry. This will require a combined effort from all levels of government and the industry. The peak industry bodies must work collaboratively with DEPI and HAL to deliver on marketing strategies. The fruit industry must drive relevant marketing activities through their peak industry bodies. 1. Improve market access (Federal and State Government) There are a number of barriers to the export of fruit which, need to be addressed at both Federal and State levels. The industry must commit to working collaboratively with government on these issues including: Establishment of commercially viable market access protocols to selected new and existing markets Active engagement with the Office of Horticultural Market Access (established by HAL in 2009) to prioritise access to markets Active engagement with Australia Fresh in relation to marketing RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 33 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Understanding of trade rules and biosecurity Understanding and involvement in existing market development programs (APAL and SAL) Support for biosecurity measures (prevention and access) to comply with export requirements e.g. fruit fly Review of chemical regulation and associated costs for industry Review of freight subsidies and export incentives. 2. Coordinate domestic and export markets (Industry, Federal and State government) The industry aims to strengthen its current export market share. For pomefruit, APAL is aiming to increase exports from 2 per cent to 10 per cent by 2015 (APAL 2010). An increase in exports will result in a greater supply balance between the different markets reducing over supply in the domestic market and associated downwards pressure on prices. Currently domestic consumers represent the largest volume market for Goulburn Valley fruit (approximately 75 per cent) followed by the processing market through SPC Ardmona (approximately 20 per cent) and then overseas exports. Coordination at an industry level is required to facilitate growth in export markets. This requires discussion with federal and state government trade groups. The industry must immediately focus on: Domestic Markets Continue dialogue between the large chain supermarkets to negotiate prices based on the cost of production (shelf price back to farm gate return) Negotiate with cannery, retailers and suppliers Review the Horticulture Code of Conduct, including position on pooling for markets Establish grower, packer and marketer driven club varieties driven by potential for increased profitability. Export Markets The following actions should be addressed through the development of a Marketing Strategy and resultant Marketing Plan by industry80: Developing a strategic approach to exports and market penetration that is built on long-term relationships and reliable high quality supply of produce Agreement on targets and approach for developing the export markets Consideration of the single market channel – ‘Having one voice’ with single desk and channel marketing programs. This would involve reviewing experience in other countries Consideration of pooling agreements in order to move the volume of fruit and coordination and/or exporting into less profitable markets initially to gain access Scoping and evaluation of existing and new markets to prioritise export markets and the potential profitability for growers. This can then be used for further grower return analysis, as it is important to provide examples of profitability in the export market and exploring what the components of success are. 80 Each commodity group is currently required by the Department of Agriculture to develop an Export Strategic Plan with APAL expecting to complete their Plan early 2014. There would be an opportunity to integrate the relevant commodity export plan to develop a Goulburn Valley strategic export plan. RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 34 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Other actions include: Improving trade relationships and having a presence in existing as well as new markets through more active engagement of Australia Fresh and the Office of Horticultural Market Access Investigating cooperative models of investment and management in strategic placed based locations (e.g. Singapore) to have ‘volume behind the offering’. The establishment of cooperative groups of farmers and value chain participants, using the collective capability of the groups will generate better access to markets and customers Consolidation of market messages and intelligence, which will also be important to inform R&D e.g. increased understanding of Asian market preferences. 3. Coordinate market promotion (Federal, State government and industry) There is a need to coordinate promotion of fruit for both an export and domestic market focus. Initiatives that could be supported include: Unified branding and promotion of Australian produce for export markets, and potential provenance branding for the Goulburn Valley for the domestic market e.g. Barossa Valley Undertaking consumer preference testing and ensuring the production of fruit that meets consumer demands in different markets. Ultimately there is a real need for the five commodity groups to collectively establish both an Industry Development Strategy (to coordinate producers) and a Market Development Strategy (to provide direction). 3.2.5 Support business development The fruit industry in the Goulburn Valley has the potential to capitalise on a number of opportunities and to grow. The region has many competitive advantages including suitable climate and soils, world-class water supply, ideal climate and an existing fruit growing sector. These fruit businesses need to continue to be supported. 1. Continue infrastructure provision (Federal, State and Local government) There is an ongoing need for first class transport infrastructure with current support for a transport hub. Whilst, transport infrastructure has been a strength for the region in the past, connections to existing and future transport infrastructure (rail, ports, road, air) is critical to the growth of the region over the next 15 years. 2. Increase production and profitability (Federal, State government, industry and business) Businesses will continue to strive towards increased efficiency and profitability. These activities should be supported by government and industry programs. Increasing production and profitability can occur through programs like Future Orchards and/or Benchmarking programs to: Better understand the cost of production Determine effective planting density and irrigation scheduling Develop business plans and strategic appropriate market chain operation RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment management structures, including Page 35 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Strengthen cooperation between growers to support marketing and production requirements Maximise profit Maximise government return on investment. 3. Develop Horticultural Business Development Group (State, Local Government and Industry) Support should be provided for local agribusiness through a Horticultural Business Development Group, such as the Alpine Valley Agribusiness Forum. This should have a clear focus and immediacy with industry engagement and deliver on regional priorities. The Group could leverage the Young Fruit Growers Group through Fruit Growers Victoria, as well as the Young Agricultural Professionals network through the Victorian Farmers Federation (VFF). 4. Continue education of the work force (State and Local government) Education is a critical element in supporting a vibrant industry of the future. Opportunities exist to further develop the skills base in the region through TAFE programs and a horticulture graduate initiative in partnership with DEPI. RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 36 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final References Apple and Pear Australia Limited (APAL 2010) Apple & Pear Industry Research, Development & Extension Investment Plan 2010-2015, Melbourne Apple and Pear Australia Limited (undated) Productivity, Irrigation, Pests and Soils (PIPS), http://apal.org.au/research-development-extension/projects/productivity-irrigation-pests-andsoils-pips/, accessed 18 November 2013 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Agriculture in the Shepparton Region of Victoria, 2013, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Canberra Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (2013) Food Demand to 2050; Opportunities for Australian Agriculture, Australian Government, Canberra Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012) Agricultural Census 2010-11, data obtained from Neil Clarke and Associates, Bendigo Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013) Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia, 2011-12, Australian Government, Canberra Australian Canning Fruit Growers Association (2013) SPC Ardmona Fruit Suppliers Survey Report, June, report prepared by John Wilson, General Manager of Fruit Growers Victoria Limited Australian Canning Fruit Growers Association (2013) Submission Safeguards Inquiry Into the Imports of Processed Fruit Production, Number 41, July, Shepparton Australian Food and Grocery Council (2011) 2020: Industry at a Crossroads, report prepared by ATKearny Carey, R and McConell, K (2011) Fruit and Vegetable Roundtable Summary: Addressing the barriers to a viable Victorian fruit and vegetable industry, report by the Food Alliance and VicHealth, Melbourne Cherry Growers Australia Inc. (2012) Australian Cherry Strategic Investment Plan 20122017, Hobart Deloitte Access Economics (2013) Understanding the Food Opportunities for Northern Victoria; Interim Themes, Issues and Implications, prepared for Regional Development Victoria, Melbourne Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2007) Rural Research and Development Priorities, Australian Government, Canberra Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2012) Horticulture Fact Sheet, Australian Government, Canberra Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (2013) National Food Plan White Paper, Australian Government, Canberra Department of Environment and Primary Industries (various) Fruit Industry Profiles, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Environment and Primary Industries (2013) Agriculture Productivity Group Business Plan 2013-2017, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research (2013) Strategic Research Priorities, Australian Government, Canberra RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 37 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Hume Strategy; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010-2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Planning and Community Development (2010) Goulburn Valley Sub Regional Plan; The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010 -2020, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Planning and Community Development (2012) Hume Region Rural Land Use Study, report prepared by urban enterprise, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Planning and Community Development (2012) State of the Hume Region 2010–2012; A progress report on the Hume Strategy for sustainable communities, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Planning and Community Development (2013) Draft Hume Regional Growth Plan; An integrated, strategic land use plan for the Hume Region, June, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Primary Industries (2006) Socio-Economic Profile of the Goulburn Broken Catchment including all of the Shepparton Irrigation Region, prepared for the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton Department of Primary Industries (2010) Victoria’s Southern Hemisphere competitors for exports to Asia, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of Primary Industries (2012) Victorian Food and Fibre Export Performance 2011-12 Financial Year, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (2012) Australia in the Asian Century White Paper, Australian Government, Canberra Department of Sustainability and Environment (2010) Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy, State Government of Victoria, Melbourne EBC, RMCG, Marsden Jacob Associates, EconSearch, Geoff McLeod, Tim Cummins, Guy Roth and David Cornish (2011) Community impacts of the Guide to the proposed MurrayDarling Basin Plan, Volume 1: Executive Summary, report to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, May Greater Shepparton City Council (2013) Productivity Commission Inquiry Submission; Import of Processed Fruit Products, July, Shepparton Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority (2013) Regional Catchment Strategy 2013-2019 Horticulture Australia Limited (2004) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney Horticulture Australia Limited (2010) Value of Horticulture, http://www.horticulture.com.au/areas_of_Investment/Environment/Climate/value_horticultur e.asp, accessed 18 November 2013 Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) Across Industry Annual Report 2011/12, Sydney Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) The Australian Horticulture Statistics Handbook, Sydney Horticulture Australia Limited (2012) Strategic Plan 2012-2015, Sydney Horticulture Australia Limited (2013) HAL Call 2013 for 2014/15 Industry Priorities; apple and pear, canned fruit, cherry, nashi, summer fruit, Sydney RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 38 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Horticulture Industry Network (2012) About HIN; Better http://www.hin.com.au/about-hin, accessed 8 November 2013 Services to Farmers, IBISWorld (2013) Fruit and Vegetable Processing in Australia, IBISWorld Industry Report C1140, Melbourne Murray Darling Basin Authority (2012) Murray Darling Basin Plan, Australian Government, Canberra National Farmers Federation (2013) Blueprint for Australian Agriculture 2013-2020, in conjunction with major partners Westpac, Woolworths and the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra National Horticultural Research Network (2010) National RD&E Framework for Horticulture, September National Horticultural Research Network (2013) Capability and Investment Analysis A snapshot of Australia’s horticultural research, development and extension capability and associated investment, November (Unpublished) Parsons Brinckerhoff and RMCG (2008) Campaspe, Greater Shepparton and Moira Regional Rural Land Use Strategy, report prepared for the Shire of Campaspe, Greater Shepparton City Council and Shire of Moira, Bendigo Productivity Commission (2013) Safeguards Inquiry into the Import of Processed Fruit Products, Report No. 64, Australian Government, Canberra Regional Development Victoria (2013) Goulburn Valley Overview, presented to the Goulburn Valley Industry and Employment Taskforce, 3 September, Shepparton Regional Development Victoria (2013) Hume Strategy Regional Plan Key Priorities 2012/13, State Government of Victoria, Wangaratta RMCG (2010) Capability of the GMID to Support Increased Production of Horticultural Crops, report prepared for Regional Development Victoria, Camberwell RMCG (2012) Predicting socioeconomic impacts of the proposed Basin Plan on Victoria, report prepared for Hume, Loddon Mallee and Grampians Regional Development Australia Committees, Bendigo RMCG (2012) Submission to the National Food Plan Green Paper Murray River Group of Councils, Camberwell SPC Ardmona (2012) Goulburn Valley Orchard Census 2012, Goulburn Valley Orchard Census Committee, December, Shepparton SPC Ardmona (2013) Media Release; SPC Ardmona’s disappointment as productivity commission’s accelerated report denies provisional safeguards, 26 September, Shepparton SPC Ardmona (2013) Submission to the Australian Productivity Commission Safeguards Inquiry for The Australian Multi Serve Fruit Industry, Number 39, July, Shepparton The Asia Pacific Consulting Group (2013) Goulburn Valley Industry Audit & Trend Analysis, report prepared for the Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers Strategic Stakeholder Group, September, Melbourne RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 39 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final Appendix 1: Property Size Area Ranges in the Goulburn Valley Region81 81 Parsons Brinckerhoff and RMCG (2008) Campaspe, Greater Shepparton and Moira Regional Rural Land Use Strategy, report prepared for the Shire of Campaspe, Greater Shepparton City Council and Shire of Moira, Bendigo RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 40 Goulburn Valley Fruit Growing Industry Roadmap Final RMCG Consultants for Business, Communities & Environment Page 41