Trends in the Political Ideology
of the Cuban-American Voter
Evidence from the Cuba Poll
1991-2011
1
Social Dimensions of Change in
Cuban Miami
population
Demographic
Changes
•
•
•
•
culture
Social
organization
Ideologies
Norms
Values
Beliefs
• Groups
• Classes
• Stratification
Institutions
•
•
•
•
•
Politics
Religious
Kinship
Education
Economy 2
Next Few Minutes…
• Trends in Cuban Migration, Residency and
Naturalization.
• How these trends have shaped Miami’s Latino
demographics.
• How these trends have shaped Cuban political
ideology on US/Cuba relations.
• Final note on Cuban-American political
exceptionalism.
• You should walk away with a sense of the
changing nature of Cuban voter opinion towards
US/Cuba Relations and the forces that are
ineluctably creating the changes.
3
Cubans Receiving Permanent
Resident Status by Decades
300,000
256,497
271,742
250,000
202,030
200,000
159,037
132,552
150,000
102,644
100,000
50,000
73,221
12,769 10,641
25,976
0
4
Cubans Naturalized
2003-2012
45,000
39,871
40,000
35,000
31,244
30,000
24,891
25,000
21,481
21,071
20,000
15,394
14,050
15,000
11,236 11,227
10,000
7,698
5,000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
5
Comparative Rates of Naturalization
of Selected Latino Groups
2003-2012
45,000
39,871
40,000
33,351
35,000
30,000
Colombia
25,000
Cuba
22,693
Dominican Republic
Honduras
20,000
Venezuela
15,000
8,794
10,000
7,404
5,000
6
0
2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010 2011
2012
Latino Origin Population
Percent of Total Population (2% or more)
2010
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
35%
4.6%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
4.2%
3.7%
7
NonHispanic
African
descent
425,650
17%
Cuban
860,000
35%
Haitian
120,000
AA
Other
Hispanic
31%
Miami
2,496,435
Car
150,000
<1994
559,00
65%
>1994
1994
301,000
>35%
“Anglo”
383,551
15%
SA
273,542
CA
212,542
Other
142,000
1990 Polls vs 2000 Polls
Average of Responses
Support for Embargo and Support for Dialogue
100%
90%
84%
80%
70%
60%
Embargo Support
Cuban Pop: 650,000
(2000 Census)
50%
60%
58%
46%
40%
Dialogue Support
Cuban Pop: 856,000
(2010 Census)
30%
20%
10%
0%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
9
Establishing a Dialogue
70%
65%
58%
60%
51%
50%
43%
40%
40%
35%
30%
20%
Mar-91
Oct-91
Jun-93
Mar-95
Jun-97
Oct-00
Mar-04
Mar-07
Sep-11
10%
0%
10
Strongly/Mostly Favor
Strongly/Mostly Oppose
Favor Continuing Embargo
100%
90%
80%
70%
87%
78%
62%
60%
56%
50%
45%
40%
30%
20%
Mar-91
Oct-91
Jun-93
Mar-95
Jun-97
Oct-00
Mar-04
Mar-07
Nov-08
Sep-11
10%
0%
11
Favor
Do you think that the United States should
continue the trade embargo with Cuba or
should the United States end the trade
embargo and permit normal trade with Cuba?
70%
59%
60%
50%
40%
49%
48%
38%
30%
20%
10%
Continue Embargo
End the Embargo
0%
Source: WPO 2009
12
1990 Polls vs 2000 Polls
Average of Responses
Support for Selling Medicines and Unrestricted
Travel
90%
Selling Medicine
80%
Cuban Pop: 650,000
71%
70%
Selling Medicine
60%
56%
57%
50%
43%
40%
30%
Unrestricted
Travel
Unrestricted Travel
Cuban Pop: 856,000
20%
10%
0%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
13
Allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba?
60%
48%
50%
40%
31%
30%
33% 33%
29%
27%
27%
19%
20%
16%
12%
8%
10%
Jun-93
Mar-95
Jun-97
Oct-00
Mar-04
Mar-07
11-Sep
9%
0%
14
Strongly Favor
Mostly Favor
Mostly Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Allow companies to sell food to Cuba?
60%
55%
50%
42%
40%
30%
24%
23%
20%
15%
8%
10%
10%
Jun-93
Mar-95
Jun-97
Oct-00
Mar-04
Mar-07
11-Sep
11%
0%
15
Strongly Favor
Mostly Favor
Mostly Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Should unrestricted travel from U.S. to Cuba be allowed
(for all Americans)?
80%
68%
70%
60%
50%
40%
55%
53%
50%
46%
44%
40%
37%
30%
20%
57%
Mar-91
Oct-91
Jun-93
Mar-95
Oct-00
Mar-04
Mar-07
8-Nov
11-Sep
10%
0%
16
Favor
Should unrestricted travel by all Americans to Cuba
be allowed or not?
80%
75% 73%
70%
63%
60%
50%
49%
37%
40%
25% 27%
30%
Total
Registered
After 94
18-44
Cuban-Am
20%
10%
0%
17
YES, ALLOWED
NO, NOT ALLOWED
Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing
diplomatic relations with Cuba?
80%
76%
70%
70%
60%
71%
58%
51%
49%
50%
42%
40%
30%
30%
29%
24%
Total
Registered
After 94
18-44
Cuban-Am
20%
10%
0%
18
favor
oppose
Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S.
embargo of Cuba?
70%
60%
64%
57%
56%
53%
50%
43%
40%
47%
44%
36%
30%
20%
Total
Registered
After 94
18-44
Cuban-Am
10%
0%
19
FAVOR
OPPOSE
Registered as Republican, Democrat or Independent?
80%
70%
60%
70%
56%
52%
50%
40%
30%
27%
23%
21%
20%
20%
16%
Mar-91
Oct-91
Mar-04
Mar-07
Mar-08
11-Sep
14%
10%
0%
20
Republican
Democrat
Independent
Voter Registration
Cubans in Miami
2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
93%
67%
59%
54%
39%
35%
27%
Total
After 94
18-44
Cuban-Am
5% 6% 7% 6%
non-citizen
citizen not
registered
citizen registered
21
Among Multiple Identities- What is The Primary
Identification among Latino Sub-Groups
Latino sub-groups
in Florida
American
National
Origin
Pan-ethnic
(Latino)
27.0%
24.9%
38.4%
Puerto Rican
21.1
28.9
46.4
Mexican
7.8
36.4
47.3
Dominican
12.8
32.1
44.9
South American
24.5
32.7
34.7
Central
American
22.5
43.7
29.6
Cuban
Statistically significant @.055
LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC
COMMONALITIES
Thinking about issues like job opportunities, education or income, how much do your
ethnic subgroup have in common with other Latinos or Hispanics? Would you say
[ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common, some things in common, little in common, or
nothing in common with other Latinos?
LATINO SUB-GROUPS
IN FLORIDA
NONE/ LITTLE
SOME/ A LOT
Cubans
18.2%
71.2%
Puerto Ricans
13.2
80.2
Mexicans
19.4
72.1
Dominicans
14.1
80.7
South Americans
15.3
77.6
Central Americans
15.5
80.3
NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT
LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL COMMONALITIES
Now thinking about things like government services and employment, political power
and representation, how much do [ethnic subgroup] have in common with other
Hispanics or Latinos? Would you say [ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common,
some things in common, little in common, or nothing in common with other
LATINO SUB-GROUPS
IN FLORIDA
NONE/ LITTLE
SOME/ A LOT
Cubans
18.6%
78.7%
Puerto Ricans
22.3
71.0
Mexicans
27.9
60.5
Dominicans
23.0
67.9
South Americans
34.7
56.2
Central Americans
33.8
59.2
Statistically significant @<.05