Cuba, the Castros, and the Future
Political Science 456- Comparative Politics: Latin America
Spring 2011
James Evert
James Battle
Hilary Novick
Dahiana Tejada
Fidel Castro
• Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz
• Ángel Castro y Argiz & Lina Ruz González
• 2 brothers (Raúl and Ramón) and 4 sisters
(Antelita, Juanita, Emma, and Augustina)
• Educated in private Jesuit boarding schools and
after graduating in late 1945, enrolled in the
University of Havana
Fidel Rises to Power
• In 1953, Castro and approximately 150
supporters attacked the Moncada military
barracks attempting to overthrow Batista.
• Captured and imprisoned
• released in 1955 after being granted
amnesty by the Batista regime
• Goes to Mexico where he meets Ernesto
“Che” Guevara
• In 1956, Castro and a group of insurgents
attack again
Fidel Dominates
• Nationalized factories and plantations
• May 1959 Signs First Agrarian Reform Law
• By the end of 1959 Castro had dismissed military
leaders and suppressed any media that opposed him
• Established relations with the Soviet Union
Fidel Dominates
• In April of 1961 Castro officially declares Cuba
a socialist state
• In May of 1961 Castro announced the end of
democratic elections in Cuba
• By the end of the year he announced Cuba
was adopting communist economic and
political policies
• 1965 merges political parties
Foreign Policy
Capitalism is using its money; we socialists
throw it away.
-Fidel Castro
• Supported armed revolt in Asia, Africa and Latin
America
• Against imperialism
They talk about the failure of socialism but where is the success of capitalism in Africa,
Asia and Latin America?
-Fidel Castro
Success and Failure
• Opened 10,000 new schools
• Increased literacy rate to 98%
• Universal health care for Cubans
• Labor unions lost right to strike
• Independent newspapers shut down
• Religious institutions harassed
Fidel’s Health (1998)
• El Nuevo Herald (a Miami-based
Spanish-language paper) claims Fidel
has some sort of Brain Illness
• This is immediately denied by Castro,
in a rare interview with international
reporters
• "I myself am surprised at how well I
feel for the famous 72 years I am
about to mark"
Fidel’s Health (2001)
•
Castro collapses while giving a
speech in Cotorro on the outskirts of
the Capital
•
Havana Foreign Minister Felipe Perez
Roque told the crowd that it was just
a momentary fall caused by the
strong heat.
Fidel’s Health (2004)
•
After Finishing a speech in
Santa Clara, Castro trips and
falls on his way off the stage
•
Breaking his Arm, and
shattering his knee cap
Fidel’s Health (2005)
•
CIA speculates that Fidel has
Parkinson's
•
Fidel denies this, saying “When I
do die one day, nobody will
believe me”
Fidel’s Illness and Transfer of
Power (2006)
•
On July 31, 2006, Castro delegated his
duties as President of the Council of
state, President of the Council of
Ministers, First Secretary of the Cuban
Communist Party, and the post
of Commander in Chief of the armed
forces to his brother Raúl Castro
•
Officially, this was done because Fidel
needed time to recover from surgery
for an “acute intestinal crisis with
sustained bleeding”
Raúl Castro
•
Acting President from 31 July
2006 – 24 February 2008
•
Officially assumed office 24
Feb, 2008
•
It is commonly thought that he
wishes to emulate the Chinese
national model, with a more
economic focus for Cuba’s
future
•
Raúl himself has never
confirmed this ambition
Raúl Castro’s Cuba
•
Within the first two months of his
presidency Raúl…
•
Lifted the ban on Cell Phones
•
Instituted a program in the
countryside that sells unused
land to farmers, who can work
the land for profit
Raúl Castro’s Cuba
•
Raúl also…
•
Lifted the ban on high
energy consuming products
such as rice cookers, DVD
players, and Computers
•
Aloud Cubans to stay in
Tourist hotels
•
And is working on a program
that would allow Cubans to
go abroad without first
seeking permission
Raúl Castro’s Cuba (2009)
•
In a surprise move in March of
2009, Raúl made several
changes in his cabinet
• Felipe Perez Roque, the
43-year-old foreign
minister, replaced with
Bruno Rodriguez Aprilla
• Also, Carlos Lage Davila,
an economist, lost his job
as Cabinet secretary,
replaced by Brig. Gen. Jose
Amado Ricardo Guerra
Fidel’s Reappearance
•
August 2010, Fidel makes
his first institutional
appearance in four years,
speaking to a special
session of the National
Assembly
•
This comes after a series of
appearances beginning in
mid-July
•
His comments have been
limited to foreign policy
issues, with no mention of
the reforms his brother
Raúl Castro’s Cuba (2010)
September 13, 2010, Cuba
announces it will likely shed
500,000 government jobs over
the next 6 months, while
simultaneously allowing for
growth in private industry
Raúl had previously stated the
state would be cutting at least
one million government jobs,
but over the next five years
Sixth Congress (2011)
•
Called for by Raúl in
November, the sixth
congress will take place in
April
•
Raúl (on the purpose of this
Congress) – “(to)concentrate
on solving problems in the
economy and updating the
Cuban economic model."
Who will take over after Raúl?
• There is no obvious successor, but a few
possibilities
• Big Peace states there are four alternatives
– No major change
– Major positive change from an authoritarian regime
to a democracy
– Gradual positive changes
– Rapid violent Gotterdammerung [referring to a
cataclysmic downfall of the regime] political collapse
• Raúl is doing everything he can to improve the
current government and ensure a legacy of
communism after he is no longer in power.
• This included dismissing numerous top
government officials and Fidel loyalists and
also reducing the power of the vice president.
Current Possibilities
• Huffington Post (2009) states that, “a
disciplined group of senior army officers will
likely rule Cuba in collective fashion. They will
have command over the economy and
political life, and the security services will
clamp down very heavily. At some point, a
new personality will emerge to critique Fidel
and Raul's "errors."”
So “at some point,” who will that be?
• The Sons of Fidel and Raúl
• Primed to take power by already serving next to Raúl
Castro
• They have the ability to make changes to the Cuban
Community Party because they have fewer enemies
• “None of them has their hands soaked in blood.
Therefore, they could start trying to make changes.” –
Cuban dissident Guillermo Fariñas.
Alejandro Castro Espin
• Son of Raúl Castro
(current president) and
Vilma Espin (Cuban
revolutionary)
• Colonel – Interior
Ministry of Cuba
• Personal assistant to
president Raúl
Dr. Antonio Castro Soto del Valle
• Son of Fidel Castro
• Not as likely… he has been
greatly scrutinized for
enjoying luxuries and
freedoms which are denied
to the Cuban people
– Luis Dominguez – a Cuban
activist in Miami posed as
“Claudia Valencia” and
engaged in an online
relationship with Antonio,
where he saw glimpses into
the personal life of a Cuban
leader.
Other Possibilities
• Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla
– Present Foreign Minister of
Cuba after being appointed
by Raúl Castro in 2009 –
Preceding Felipe Pérez Roque
– Former Permanent
Representative to the UN
(1995-2003)
• Ricardo Alarcón
– President of National
Assembly of People’s Power
in Cuba
– Supporter of current Cuban
policies
Possibility of Democratic Elections
• After over 50 years of being in power, Fidel Castro
has forever altered the Cuban political, economic
and social landscape.
• In order to access the possibility of democratic
elections on the island, it is important to
understand the current economic situation and the
possibility of a market economy, the US approach to
situation in Cuba, the role of Dissidents and
understanding what Cubans want.
Reflection Questions
• Given that Fidel and Raul are coming to the end of
their lives, what do you feel their legacy will be in
both Cuba and Latin America?
• If the Castro regime falls how do you think that will
impact their close Latin American allies such as
Venezuela and Bolivia?
• Given the current situation in Cuba, what will
democracy in Cuba look like if it is to exist?
Thank You!
Sources
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-bruno-sanz/after-raul-castro_b_215138.html
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul-alejandro.html
http://bigpeace.com/jkalosha/2010/10/15/the-future-of-post-castro-cuba-introduction/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alejandro_Castro_Esp%C3%ADn
http://www.biography.com/articles/Fidel-Castro-9241487
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/138452.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1404511.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3761748.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4444454.stm
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/33746.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7252109.stm
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/04/26/raul.castro/
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/03/02/cuba.reorganization/index.html#cnnSTCText
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/09/13/cuba.economy/index.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/08/07/cuba.fidel.castro/index.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11894593