CONFLICTING VISIONS:
THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR
AS A “REVOLUTION”
A Presentation by
Roger Ransom
University of California, Riverside
Objective 1:
Discuss My Research Dealing With
Economic Interpretations Of The Civil War
Drawing on My Expertise as a Cliometrician
Clio = Muse of History
Metrics = Quantitative Measurement
This Is Interesting Stuff
[To Me..]
But Your Students May
Find It A Bit “Boring”
Objective 2:
Discuss An Imaginary World Where
The South Won The Civil War !
This is Called Counterfactual History
or Alternate History
A Game That I First Played In The 1950s
… And More Recently As an Author
Two Things Middle School Kids Like:
 Imagination
 Maps!
How To Explain The Civil War?
To Charles And Mary Beard:
The War Was A Second American Revolution
The Cause Of The War Was Economic Change
Industrial Change In The Northern States
… With A Rapidly Expanding Population
Agrarian Society In The Southern States
… Tied To A System Of Slavery And Cotton
By The 1850s The North Had Gained An
Economic And Political Dominance
That Threatened The Southern “Way Of Life”
How To Explain The Civil War?
The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was
“An Irrepressible Conflict”
In The 1960s Cliometricians Pointed Out Developments
That Seemed To Undermine Beards’ Explanation
First Was The Fact That The Southern States Were
NOT An “Economically Backward” Region
How to Explain the Civil War?
The South was a Major Source of Economic Growth for
The National Economy
West ships foodstuffs to the North
In exchange for manufactures. This
trade expanded rapidly after The Erie
Canal is finished in 1826.
West ships foodstuffs to
the South.
South buys manufactures
from abroad and shipping
Services from the North.
North buys cotton, sugar
and tobacco from South.
Southern Cotton is
shipped to Great
Britain and Europe.
These exports finance
imports into the South
and the rest of the U.S.
How to Explain the Civil War?
The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was A Conflict Between:
A Dynamic Northern Economy That Was Industrializing
and
A Southern Economy That Was Lagging Behind
But Our Analysis Suggests That The South Was
NOT Lagging Behind
BOTH SIDES Were Doing Well Economically In 1860
BOTH SIDES Had A Lot To Lose And Very Little To
Gain Economically From A Disruptive War
War That Would Seriously Disrupt Trade In ALL Regions
What to Make of All This?
Historians: Economic Factors Were NOT
An Important Cause of the War
Economic Historians: Don’t Argue with this Conclusion
The Civil War “Just Happens”
Problem: Then What Did Cause the Civil War?
Answer: No One Seems to Know …
Maybe The War Was A Tragic Mistake Caused by
A Blundering Generation of Leaders …
Another Look at The Beard Thesis
Strength of the Beard’s Argument Was That
Economic Change Produced Two
Conflicting Economic Systems
Were There “Irreconcilable Differences” Between
Regions of the United States?
Beards Claim You Could See These Conflicts
In the Decennial Census Returns
WERE THEY RIGHT?
Let’s A Closer Look At the U.S. Census Data In 1860
What Are We Looking For:
In the North:
The North is becoming a Market Society
Production for the Market
Decline in Home Production
Increase in Manufacturing and Commerce
 Growth of Urban Centers
 Growth of Financial Institutions
A Diverse Population
 Influx of Immigration
What Are We Looking For:
In the South:
Slave Plantation Sell Cash Crops
Yeoman Farms Remain Self-Sufficient
 Reliance on Home Production
 No Urban Development
Key Point is that the South Wants to
Remain Just Like It Was In 1790!
A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words …
AGRICULTURE: Farm Size in 1860
West:
Family Farms
Free Labor
Tilled Acres per Farm
9 to 50 Acres
50 to 100 Acres
100 to 250 Acres
South:
Plantations
Slave Labor
Over 250 Acres
Per Capital Value of HOME MANUFACTURES in 1860
Home Manufactures
Have Practically
Disappeared in the
North
Home Manufactures ($)
Not Reported
$0.00 to $2.50
$2.50 to $10.00
$10.00 to $25.00
Over $25.00
Value of MANUFACTURED GOODS Per Capita in 1860
Manufacturing Is Far
More Common in the
North – Particularly
the Northeast
Dollars Per Capita
0 to 5 Dollars
5 to 10 Dollars
10 to 20 Dollars
20 to 40 Dollars
Over 40 Dollars
Urban Population in 1860
West:
A Few Urban
Centers – Lots
of Towns &
Small Cities
North:
Large
Urban
Population
% Urban
South:
A Few Urban Centers –
Very Few Towns
Under 10%
10% to 20%
20% to 50%
Over 50%
Number of Banks in the United States, 1860
Number of Banks per County
1 Bank
2 to 3 Banks
5 to10 Banks
Over 25 Banks
Foreign Born Population In 1860
Percent Foriegn Born
Not Reported
0 to 2.5
2.5 to 5.0
5.0 to 10.0
10.0 to 25.0
Over 25 Percent
School Attendance in 1850
Increasing School
Attendance in
Northwest
Support for
Public Education
High
Attendance
In the
North
Low
Attendance
In the South
What the Census Shows:
The Beards Had it Right -There Was Revolution Going On In The U.S.
The Northern [Free] States Were Experiencing a
Period of Rapid Economic and Social Change
Very Different From What Was Happening in
The South
By 1860 This Had Produced Enormous Differences
Between The South And The North
These Regional Socio-Economic Differences Produced
Very Different Visions of Political Economy
THE ARGUMENT THUS FAR:
1. The Northern [Free] States Are Experiencing a
Period of Rapid Economic and Social Change
North of 1860 Is Very Different
From North of 1790
2. The Southern [Slave] States Have Experienced
Economic Growth Without Much Social Change
South of 1860 Is the Same As South of 1790
Antebellum Political Economy
 Major Policy Disputes Over:
Land Policy
Transportation & Internal Improvements
Banking
Education
Tariff
Immigration
… And Then There Are The Disputes Over SLAVERY
Antebellum Political Crises
1787: Slavery and the Northwest Ordinance
1819-20: The Missouri Compromise
1832-33: The Nullification Crisis in South Carolina
1845-49: Texas and the Mexican War
1850: The Compromise of 1850
1854: The Kansas-Nebraska Act
1850: The Dredd Scott Decision
1860: The Election of Abraham Lincoln
Why Was Slavery Such A Sensitive Issue?
Slavery
Historians Before 1960 Argued Slavery Was NOT Profitable
In Fact, Slave Labor In The South Was Very Profitable
Southern Slaveholders
Not Only Made Money
Selling Cotton -- They
Sold Slaves!
The Value of the Stock of Slaves
in the United States, 1805-1860
3,500
3,000
Millions of Dollars
2,500
The Increased Value
Of Slaves
 Capital Gains
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
Source: Roger Ransom and Richard Sutch (1988: Table 3)
1850
1860
By 1860 the Value Of
Slaves in the Cotton
States was One Half
The Value of ALL
Investments!
The Slave Power
SLAVERY Dominated Every aspect of Southern Life
By 1860 the Cotton
Economy had pushed
Westward to the
Mississippi River
As Southerners
Moved West …
Their Slaves Moved
With Them
The Slave Power
Reported Wealth Per Family in 1860
Reported Wealth
0 to $1,000
$1,000 to $2,000
$2,000 to $5,000
Over $5,000
Competition for Land: TWO PATHS WEST
Northerners Move
West to Set up
Family Farms That
Produce Foodstuffs
For the Eastern Markets
Southerners Move
West to Set up
Slave Plantations
That Produce Cotton
So Long as There is Land Available – This Pattern Works
Conflicting Visions
By 1860 the Northern “Vision” Is Winning
Demographic Balance favors the North
20 Million to 11 Million People
North and West Account for 189 of 294 Votes
In the Electoral College
Economic Power favors the North because of
Industrialization
If Lincoln Wins The 1860 Presidential Election
 The South Should Secede !
LINCOLN EASILY WINS THE 1860 ELECTION
Southern Options
1. Submit to Political Domination by the North
Accept the Republican Economic Program
2. Leave the Union
Even If They Have to Fight a War
It’s a No-Brainer …
THE BARBARIANS ARE AT THE GATES!
THE SOUTH MUST DEFEND ITS HONOR!
And, Of Course, Its Investment in SLAVES!
A NAGGING QUESTION REMAINS:
Why Did the North Choose to Fight?
Why Not Let the South Secede?
Because That Would Throw Away The Political Gains
They Had Struggled for in the 1850s
The SLAVE POWER Would Survive in The Confederacy
The Problem of Slavery Would Remain Unsolved
TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE NORTH FOUGHT
“To Preserve the Union”
Is to Ask the Counterfactual Question:
“What if the South had
Won the War?”
Why Consider A Counterfactual Outcome?
Because It Mattered Who Won This War
A Southern Victory Means:
 A Slave Republic In North America
 Political Realignment in Western World
Lincoln On The Problem Of Settling Disputes
Between The USA And An Independent CSA:
A husband and wife may be divorced, and go out of the presence and
beyond the reach of each other; but the different parts of our country
cannot do this. … Can aliens make treaties easier than friends make
laws? Can treaties be more faithfully enforced between aliens than
laws can among among friends?
Could the South Have Won The War?
Two Scenarios for A Southern Victory:
1. A Quick War:
Victories at Antietam and/or Gettysburg
 Intervention From Europe
Possible – But Not Very Likely
2. Wear the North Down:
Hold the line in the West
Create A Stalemate By 1864
 Lincoln Loses The 1864 Election
 Intervention From Europe
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Missouri
Virginia
River
Campaigns
Spring 1862
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
Arkansas
Shiloh
Vicksburg
Campaign
Summer 1863
Alabama
Mississippi
South
Carolina
Georgia
Union Victories
Louisiana
Vicksburg
Union Naval
Operations
Texas
Florida
New Orleans
Confederate
Victories
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Confederate
Invasion
Fall 1862
Missouri
Perryville
Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
Murfreesboro
Arkansas
Chattanooga
Shiloh
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Chickamauga
Chattanooga
Campaign
Fall 1863
South
Carolina
Georgia
Union Victories
Vicksburg
Union Naval
Operations
Texas
Florida
New Orleans
Confederate
Victories
Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63
Lee’s
Invasions
1862/1863
Gettysburg
Antietam
Second Manassas
Missouri
Perryville
Union
Invasions
1862/1863
Fredricksburg
Chancellorsville
Virginia
Peninsula
Campaign
Spring 1862
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
Murfreesboro
Arkansas
Chattanooga
Shiloh
Alabama
Mississippi
Chickamauga
South
Carolina
Georgia
Union Victories
Louisiana
Vicksburg
Union Naval
Operations
Texas
Florida
New Orleans
Confederate
Victories
Confederate Hopes for Winning the War?
Gettysburg
Antietam
Second Manassas
Fredricksburg
3. Avoid the
Missouri
Perryville
Chancellorsville
Disasters at
Antietam &
Gettysburg Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
Murfreesboro
Arkansas
Shiloh
2. Hold the
Chattanooga Line at
Chattanooga
South
Chickamauga
Carolina
1. Stop the
Union Advance
At Shiloh
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
Union Victories
Louisiana
Vicksburg
Union Naval
Operations
Texas
Florida
New Orleans
Confederate
Victories
3
Richmond
Actual Union
Advance by the
End of 1862
Nashville
Memphis
2
Chattanooga
Shiloh
Atlanta
Counterfactual
Limit to Union
Advances In 1862
Counterfactual
Union Advances
In 1863
1
Vicksburg
New Orleans
The United States of America and the Confederate States of America; 1866
United States of America
?
Confederate
States of America
The Dis-United States; Circa 1865 - 1876
New
England
Federation
Pacific
States of
America
United States of America
USA
Unorganized
Territories
CSA
Unorganized
Territories
Atlantic
Federation
Western Federation
Confederate States of Americac
A “Recipe” for Counterfactual History
Two Parts Historical Reality
One Part Imagination
One Part Common Sense
Mix Ingredients and Pour Into a Historical Mold
Serve With A Healthy Dose of Skepticism
Bon Appetit!
WHAT IF?
The Historian’s Secret Question