Community Colleges:
Preparing America’s Workforce in the 21 st Century
Presented by:
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College District

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Demographics
Nature of work
Workplace
Worker

 By 2005, almost half of all workers will be employed in industries that produce or are intensive users of information technology
.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

(cont.)
 Baby boomers make up almost half (47%) of the workforce today.
 Young women are enrolling in college at a higher rate (70%) than young men (64%).
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

(cont.)
 Small businesses employ about half of the nation's private sector workforce.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

(cont.)
 With more than 1600 corporate training institutions already established, “Corporate Universities” could surpass traditional universities, in number, by 2010.
Source: U.S.Dept. of Labor

(Born 1946 – 1965)

330,000,000
320,000,000
310,000,000
300,000,000
290,000,000
280,000,000
270,000,000
260,000,000
250,000,000
2001 2005 2010 2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected U.S. Population - Age
40
39
38
Mean
37
36
Median
35
34
2001 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2010 2020

Persons 65+
52% live in nine states:
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California 3.6 million
Florida
New York
Texas
2.8 million
2.4 million
2.1 million
Pennsylvania 1.9 million
Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey each with over 1 million.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Persons 65+ (cont.)
 Metropolitan areas
 Suburbs
77.5%
50.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

South and West will comprise majority of growth




Northeast
Midwest
West
South
17.1%
20.7%
26%
36.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected U.S. Population by Ethnicity
% Change from 2001
Caucasian
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
4
3
2
1
6
5
2005 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2020
Black
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific
Islander
American
Indian


Caucasian – Slowest Growing, still largest
 Hispanic – 2 nd Fastest Growing, Southwest
 Black – 2 nd Slowest Growing, all regions
 Asian – Fastest Growing, all regions
 American Indian – 3 rd fastest growing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

“ America will face a social and economic crisis unless it succeeds in promoting and taking advantage of racial and ethnic diversity.”
Business – Higher Education Forum - “Investing in People: Developing
All of America’s Talent on Campus and in the Workplace.”

Growth in Civilian Workforce:
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
1990-2000 = +17%
2000-2010 = +15%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Largest shift will be decrease of “prime-age”
(25-54) workers in the labor force.
Over 60% of workers do not have children at home but care for elderly family members.
Shift from defined-benefit to definedcontribution pensions has unknown impact.
Various organizational responses to technology impact productivity.
Source: The Urban Institute

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During 1992-99 expansion, college-educated workers accounted for 90% of growth.
Globalization of production has weakened the position of U.S. workers.
Although 1992-99 expansion increased job opportunities, many less educated workers have not reentered the job market.
Source: The Urban Institute

(cont.)
In the next 20 years . . .
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The civilian labor force will see a major change in age cohorts.
Men 16 and over will continue to decline in numbers and percentage.
Minorities and women will continue to increase dramatically in the civilian workforce.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Occupations by Replacement Need
Created by Retirees
1998–2008
(in thousands)
Total, all employees 22,205
Secretaries ......................................................…. 519
Truck drivers, heavy ......................................….. 425
Teachers, elementary school .........................….. 418
Janitors and cleaners ..................................…….. 408
Teachers, secondary school ..........................…….378
Registered nurses ......................................……... 331
Bookkeepers, accounting and auditing clerks …. 330
Teachers, college and university .................….... 195
Source: Monthly Labor Review

Replacements Needed for Retirees
(cont.)
Administrators, education and related fields ….. 178
Farmers, except horticultural ........................….. 175
Supervisors, construction occupations ..........….. 165
Administrators and officials,................................ 143
Real estate sales occupations .....................…….. 144
Insurance sales occupations .......................…….. 135
Industrial machinery repairers .......................….. 125
Maids and housekeeping cleaners ...............…..... 122
Private household cleaners and servants .....……. 112
Physicians ....................................................…….. 108
Financial managers .......................................….... 102
Lawyers……………………………………………………….99
Source: Monthly Labor Review

2000-2010
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Service Sector – Continues to dominate growth adding 20.5 million jobs (+19%).
Manufacturing down by 3%.
Health, Business, Human Services,
Engineering, Management and related services account for 1 of every 2 non-farm jobs.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Professional and related occupations will add
7% and 5.1%, respectively.
Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15%.
Office admin support will grow more slowly.
8-10 fastest growing occupations are computer related.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fastest Growing Occupations,
2000–2010 (National)
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Computer Software Engineer +100%
Computer Support Specialist + 97%
Medical Assistants
Soc. & Human Serv. Asst.
+ 57%
+ 54%
Physician Asst.
Home Health Aide
Veterinary Asst.
Dental Asst.
+ 53%
+ 47%
+ 40%
+ 37%
Source: Monthly Labor Review

Fastest Growing Occupations,
New York
(per year)
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Computer Scientists +7.9%
Computer Support Spec.
+6.3%
Paralegals +5.5%
Medical Scientists +4.6%
Post-sec. Health Teachers +4.4%
Sheet Metal Duct Installers +4.4%
Medical Asst.
+4.0%
Dental Asst.
+3.6%
Source: NY Dept. of Labor

Fastest Growing Occupations,
North Carolina
(per year)
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Computer Scientists +8.0%
Desktop Publishing Spec. +7.0%
Health Practitioners +6.7%
Paralegals +6.5%
Computer Support Spec. +6.4%
Respiratory Therapists +5.8%
Cardiology Techs.
+5.7%
Computer Science
Teachers(post-sec.) +5.7%
Source: NC Employment Security Commission

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Georgia
(per year)
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Computer Engineers +12.8
Demonstrators & Models +11.6%
Human Service Workers +9.0%
Home Health Aides +8.9%
Offset Press Operators +7.2%
Child Care Workers
Bakers
+6.4%
+5.8%
Private Detectives
Physical Therapists
+5.4%
+5.1%
Source: NW Georgia Career Depot

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Kentucky
(per year)
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Computer Scientists
Physical Therapy Asst.
Personal Home Care Aides
Computer Support Spec.
Physical Therapists
Occupational Therapists
Medical Asst.
Paralegals
+13.9
+10%
+9.6%
+9.1%
+8.5%
+8.2%
+7.8%
+7.2%
Source: Kentucky Dept. for Employment Services

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Indiana
(2000-2008)
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Computer Engineers
Computer Support Spec.
Home Health Aides
Medical Asst.
Human Services Asst.
Ship Mates
Physician Asst.
Physical Therapy Asst.
+100.2%
+73.8%
+64.7%
+61.5%
+56.8%
+52.9%
+48.1%
+46.4%
Source: Indiana Career & Postsecondary Advancement Center

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Missouri
(2000-2008)
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Computer Scientists
Desktop Publishing Spec.
Computer Support Spec.
+82.1%
+76.5%
+67.8%
Paralegals
Health Practitioners
+62.4%
+61.7%
Computer Science Teachers +50.0%
Rec/Leisure/ Fitness Teachers +47.1%
Respiratory Therapists +44.1%
Source: Missouri Economic Research & Information Center

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Texas
(2000-2010)
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Computer & Data Processing +55.5%
Management & PR +41.3%
Freight/Transportation Arrangement +41.1%
Automobile Repair
Osteopathic Phys. Office Work
Individual & Family /Services
Health Office Occupations
Child Care Services
Residential Care
+39/7%
+38.6%
+36.2%
+35.9%
+35.8
+32.2%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Fastest Growing Occupations,
Montana
(per year)
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Computer Support Spec.
Fitness Trainer
Home Care Aides
+83.6
+59.1%
+57%
Medical Asst.
Human Service Asst.
+52.1%
+51.3%
Amusement & Rec. Attendants +47.0%
Hotel, Motel Clerks +46.8%
Tour Guides +41.1%
Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry

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Fastest Growing Occupations,
Oregon
(2000-2008)
Computer Support Spec.
Human Service Asst.
Private Detectives
+ 114%
+ 78%
+ 62%
Occupational Therapy Aides + 55%
Desktop Publishers + 52%
Physical Therapists + 48%
Physical Therapy Asst.
Child Care Workers
+ 47%
+ 42%
Source: OR Labor Market Information System

Fastest Growing Occupations,
California
(2000-2010)
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Computer Specialists
Human Service Asst.
Medical Asst.
Teachers (Spec. Ed, Pre-School,
Kindergarten)
Dental Asst., & Hygienists
Medical Records Tech.
Speech Pathologists
PR Managers
+106.8%
+ 68.7%
+ 52.7%
+ 51.3%
+ 50.0%
+ 49.3%
+ 48.3%
+ 47.7%
Source: CA Labor Market Information System

Highly Skilled and Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce
16%
12.5%
14.1%
15.6%
14.2%
13.2% 12.7%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
1988
1998
2008
0%
Professional specialties (skilled) Operators, laborers and fabricators (unskilled)
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median Years of Job Tenure
5.00
4.75
4.50
4.25
1996 vs 2000
4.00
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Individual


Rigid
 Company
Focused
Non-Responsive
 Insensitive to
Diversity
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Coordinated
Flexible
Customer Focused 


Responsive
 Sensitive to
Diversity
Other?_____

The 21 st Century Worker
Skills Needed:
 Academic (standard)
 Technical (standard)
 Social new
 International/Intercultural new

 Labor shortage of skilled workers
 Higher levels of education will be necessary to secure new, higher-paying jobs – 80% of jobs will require more post-secondary education
 No easy answer whether supply of qualified workers will meet demand in key industry sectors

Path to the American Dream
% of High School Graduates Attending College
1979-97 and projected to 2010
80%
71%
75%
70%
67%
66%
59.6%
60%
54%
58%
50%
40%
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

Projected Supply and Demand of Workers with some Postsecondary Education
Demand (Jobs) Supply (Workers)
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
1998 2008 2018 2028
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau , U.S. Census and National Alliance of Business

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Postsecondary Education,
1995 and 2015 (in millions)
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
13.4 Million
2.6 Million
80% Minority
31% 35 and older
1995 2015
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Richard A. Fry. Crossing the
Great Divide. Educational Testing Services, 2000 .

Projected Postsecondary Enrollment Distribution by Institution, 1975 to 2015
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1975
1997
2015
6.4%
5.3%4.7%
58.1%
56.5%
55.8%
38.1%
35.5%
39.5%
Private university Other four-year Two-year
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for
Education Statistics and National Alliance of Business

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
% Growth in Occupations (1998 to 2008) by Type* of Training Required
* Does not include all types of training

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Among families with incomes greater than
$75,000 per year, < 60% of HS graduates were highly qualified for admission to 4-yr colleges.
For families under $25,000 per year, 47% were not even minimally qualified.
63% of community college students take at least one remedial course.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Education

st
: Everyone’s Involved
 Providers:
• K-16 (includes public and private 2 & 4 year colleges)
• Private vocational schools, consultants
• Industry, businesses and labor unions
 Need for continuous education and training as workplace demands change.

 Training for new economy credentials
•
•
Vendor provided credentials
Vendor driven curriculum
• Rapid changes in job expertise
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More than 300 discrete certifications
Over 2.4 million IT certifications awarded
Most training providers outside traditional higher education and on and on…

Opportunities for
Community Colleges
 Increasing
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Demand for skilled workers
Shortage of prepared workers
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Job demand for post-secondary education
Productivity based on skills
Higher educational attainment
Enrollment in post-secondary institutions
 Decreasing job tenure

More Opportunities for
Community Colleges
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Increasing
 Education level of the workforce

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Enrollment in community colleges
Diversity of community colleges
Need for financial assistance 
Anywhere & Anytime Learning:
( flexible & responsive)
Competencies vs. completions
Employer relationships
Increasing government recognition .


National
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Elected policy makers
Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act
Perkins
Workforce Investment Act (WIA)
Temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF)
Nursing Education
International Education
Others?

(cont.)

•
•
State
Elected policy makers
Effect of declining state economies on budgets.


Emphasize importance of education and training in state economy.
Emphasize the importance of affordable access.

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Emphasize role of workforce training in national economy.
Others?

 Local/Regional
• Pace of retirements/replacements
•
•
Small and medium size businesses
Urban, suburbs, rural uniqueness

What is Our Board’s Game Plan?
 We understand the facts!
 We understand the trends!

What is Our Board’s Game Plan?
Question:
How does this Board provide leadership for AACC regarding key educational and workforce training-related issues?

AARP http://www.aarp.org/
America’s Career InfoNet http://www.acinet.org/acinet/default.asp?soccode=& stfips =
America’s Job Bank dni.us http://www.ajb. /
Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/
Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/

(cont.)
Monthly Labor Review http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm
National Alliance of Business http://www.nab.com/
National Center for Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/
National Governors Association http://www.nga.org/
National Institute on Aging http://www.nia.nih.gov/

(cont.)
State Employment Departments, Departments of Labor,
& Labor Market Information Systems
Urban Institute http://www.urban.org/
U.S. Administration on Aging http://www.aoa.gov/
U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/
U.S. Department of Labor http://www.dol.gov/

Thank You!
Dr. Jesus “Jess” Carreon
Chancellor,
Dallas County Community College District jcarreon@dcccd.edu