Political Beliefs and Behaviors
American political ideology
What’s your political
belief?
• Survey given to 10-14 year olds
• One day the President was driving his car
to a meeting. Because he was late, he was
driving very fast. The police stopped the
car. (Finish the story)
• Different countries answer differently
– England – Queen would be released
– France – President would be excused
– US – President would get a ticket like everyone
else
Types of Participation
2000 Election participation
• 82% watched the campaign on television
• 73% voted in the election
• 34% tried to influence others how to vote
• 10% put a sticker on their car
• 9% gave money to help a campaign
• 5% attended a political meeting
• 3% worked for a party or candidate
• Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No
Who REALLY
participates?
Different factors can tell us who votes
1. Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more
education=more voting
2. Religious involvement
3. Race and Ethnicity – Whites higher than
minorities (might be economic based)
4. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up
is the highest
Who REALLY
participates?
5. Gender – men traditionally voted more,
now it is more equal
6. Two-party competition – more
competitive elections have higher turnout
Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals
influenced by many factors, it is
important when testing for this that
variables are controlled
Voting Trends
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1964 – 69.3%
1968 – 60.8%
1972 – 55.2%
1976 – 53.5%
1980 – 52.6%
1984 – 53.1%
1988 – 50.1%
1992 – 55.1%
1996 – 49.1%
2000 – 51.2%
2004 – 56.7%
2008 – 57.3%
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2008 Highest – Minnesota 73.2%; Lowest – Texas 45.5%
KY – 55.7%; OH – 65.1%
Expanding Suffrage
1. Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal
manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white
males
2. Suffrage for African-Americans (1863-1964)
1. 1870 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights to all
2. 1954 - Brown v. Board – separate but equal is illegal,
killed Jim Crow laws
3. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax
4. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law
prohibited (no literacy tests, fair elections etc.)
Expanding Suffrage
3. Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th
Amendment gave women the right to
vote
4. 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th
Amendment, sparked by Vietnam
Voter Turnout
• Registered Voter turnout
• Eligible Voter turnout
• Voter Registration – blamed as one of the
causes of low turnout
• “Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter
Registration Act – allowed people to
register to vote while they get license
Other reasons for low
turnout
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Difficulty of Absentee Voting
Number of Offices to Elect too high
Weekday, non-holiday voting
Weak political parties – less “get-out-thevote campaigns
Public Opinion
• The distribution of individual attitudes
about a particular issue, candidate,
political institution, etc.
George Gallup
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Developed “Gallup Polls”
Started in 1932
1st “pollster”
Since 1936, agency has picked one
general election result incorrect
Sampling
• Representative – must mirror population
you want answer about
• Random – give everyone an equal
possibility of being sampled
• Wording – questions can’t be leading
• Straw poll – poor polling technique
Political Socialization
• Factors that influence a person’s opinion
• People in different social “groups” tend to
share certain opinions: group identification
Family
• #1 influence of political attitude
• Very strong correlation for Political Party
support
Gender
Examples
• More men support military
• More women consider sexual harassment
a serious problem
• Since ’60s, women vote Dem more than
men, and vice versa
• Not as significant of an indicator as
marriage (married vs. unmarried)
Religion
Example
• Protestants are more conservative on economic
matters than Catholics or Jews
• Jews tend to be liberal on economic and social
issues than Catholics or Protestants
• Catholics tend to be more liberal on economic
issues than they are on social issues (Catholics
becoming more conservative)
• CROSS PRESSURE – Pro-life (vote R); Labor
union member (vote D) – which way will they
vote?
Education
Example
• Higher Education = more conservative
or
• College education = liberal views
Conflicting results, not always a correlation
Social Class
• “Blue collar” (Laborer) typically Democrat
• “White collar” (Businessmen) typically
Republican
Relationship is becoming less clear
Race and Ethnicity
Examples
• African Americans – 90% Democrats
• Hispanic Americans – tend to affiliate with
Democrats, but less likely than African
Americans
• Asian Americans – less liberal than
Hispanic Americans or African Americans,
but still consistently vote Democrat
• White, more divided, fluctuates by election
Geographic Region
Example
• East and West Coasts – more liberal
• Mid-West – more conservative
• Urban - liberal
• South – 1870-1950s - Democrat “Solid South”
but today they are primarily social
conservatives
• White Southerner always less liberal
Political Ideology
• Coherent set of values and beliefs about
public policy
• Changes over time for all people
• Liberal and conservative mean different
things at different time periods
How ideological are
Americans?
• 1950 study – “The American Voter”
• 4 basic types of voter
1. Ideologues – 12% of people connect
their opinions to party lines
2. Group Benefits Voter – 42% of people
connect their opinion to their “group”.
(labor union, interest group, class, race)
How ideological are
Americans?
3. Nature of the times voter – 24% of the
people linked good or bad times to the
party in control and vote the opposite
(usually based on economics).
4. No Issue Content – 22% of the people
could give no reason
Liberal vs. Conservative
• Video explanation – take notes on video
• 26 minutes
Exit Polls
• Polling after voting - Tommy Bradley effect (also Obama???)
• Some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by
stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of
racial motivation.
• Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an
answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically
correct'.
• The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes
extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster
conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.
• Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect,[9] or
argued that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more
recent ones. Others believe that it is a persistent phenomenon