Negotiations in Times of Crises
The Wharton School
Challenges in Strategic Negotiations
August 2011
Gilead Sher
Some practical advices…
The Art and Practice of Negotiations
Relate to needs, rather than positions
 Never accept the first offer
 Never lose your temper: use a neutral and relaxed language
 In other words: keep calm and carry on
 Always give only against consideration
 Stay focused on final objective
 Express appreciation to the other party
 Understand your deal before signing

Phase I
Preparations, Diplomacy, Staff Work
Phase II
Phase III
Legitimacy
Advocacy
Phase IV
The Negotiation – Team Work
EXTREMISTS
OPPOSITION
AFFECTED GROUPS
and INDIVIDUALS
SPOILERS
CONFLICTING INTERESTS
Phase V
Reporting-Addressing spoilers-Concluding
How to create VALUE on a lasting basis





The right parties?
The right issues?
The right sequence?
The right table?
And then: 1. tactics (AT the table)
2. deal design (creative agreement on
the surface and below it)
3. set up (extends to actions AWAY from
table, to create most promising situation)
Reference List

Identifying the problems and barriers; Depersonalize them

Strategic policy design and goal definition

Setting priorities, accommodating public interests

Sequential targeting; specific objectives

Media, consensus building and public opinion

Constituencies: legitimize “the other”

Perceptions and gap analysis; standards, norms

Process management in multi-issue, multi-party, multi-level set ups; Discipline

Signing

Timing: identifying opportunities; time issues

Mandates, coalitions, spoilers – participants, opponents and other
players…
Reference List (Cont.)

Personalities; Mindsets

Momentum and leverage; walk away alternatives

Improving options; Creating a larger pie

Adapting to changes in conditions and circumstances, reframing; fresh
thinking

Creativity in general; Being purposive, neither reactive nor passive

Psychological and social dimensions

Rolling re-assessment

The behavior of leaders and principals

Getting commitments and certainty

The International Arena

Getting to Closing.
Different Approaches to Resolving a Complex Conflict
Key negotiation issues:




What is the immediate and long-term purpose of the negotiations;
and then What decisions need to be made now in order to achieve those
aims?
Who can influence those who possess power (political parties,
interest groups, media, individuals);
Who has the formal power and who is in fact the decision maker.
Planning the Negotiations
our interests
our positions
our
counterpats’
interests
positions
presented by
counterparts
potential
agreement
areas
Gaps and
comments
Roger Fisher, Beyond Machiavelli
Seven Elements of Negotiation in a Conflict Situation
1.
Interests
2.
Options
3.
Legitimacy
4.
Relationship
5.
Communication
6.
Commitment
7.
Alternatives
Have the parties explicitly understood their own
interests?
Are sufficient options being generated?
Do
theprocess
parties of
understand
other from
priorities
Is the
inventing each
separated
the
and
constraints?
Have
relevant
precedents
and other outside
process
of making
commitments?
standards of fairness been considered? Can
What
is thebeability
theare
parties
to workto the
Principles
foundofthat
persuasive
together?
other side? To us?
Is the
way
the parties
communicate
helping
there
a working
relationship
between
theiror
interfering
with
ability to
deal constructively
negotiators?
Aretheir
the parties
paying
attention to
with
the of
conflict?
Are mechanisms
in the
place
to
the kind
relationship
they want in
future?
Are
potential
commitments
well-crafted?
confirm
that what
is understood
is in fact Does
what
each
party know what it would like the other
was intended?
Does
sideon?
understand
its Best
party each
to agree
If the other
side Alternative
said yes, is to
it
Negotiated
Agreement
– itstomorrow
BATNA? morning?
Are the
clear who would
do what
negative consequences of not settling being used
to bring
the
together?
Verint March
2010 parties
Strategic Negotiations
Media, Consensus Building and Public Opinion




Preparation of Public Opinion
Advocacy; lobbying; gaining legitimacy (internally and
externally)
In critical negotiations, concerted effort and attention must
be given to continuous, comprehensive public relations
Leadership must keep in touch with the groups that would be
likely to experience the heaviest loss as a result of any
agreement
Perceptions and Symbolism

Perceptions vs. Objective Facts and Evidence




Symbolic Images
In such negotiations one always needs to keep in mind the dignity,
symbolism, tradition and heritage that the other party is concerned with.
The key to close a deal would not be the “truth”, the "justice" or
the objective facts, but what’s in the minds of the respective
parties.
If you mistakenly analyze the other side’s perception regarding
its own objectives, you will constantly misread its conduct
throughout the negotiation process
Negotiation in times of Crisis
Process Management
Binding Mechanism
Clear Benchmarking
Perceptions
Mindsets
Symbolism
Tradition
Narratives
How words can help negotiation
Process Management



Process management may be as vital as the substance and
content of the negotiations themselves
Primarily when there is a high-level third party involvement, a
rigid framework that ensures progress is needed with a
binding agenda from which the parties cannot be allowed to
depart
It is essential that the facilitator require all negotiating parties
to give their responses at every stage; to dictate a clear
agenda, to compose a check list of who does what, when, and
follow up its implementation.
Signing and Timing
Signing and Timing




Never leave the negotiation table before signing a
document, once you have the final agreed draft ready
Constantly read the battlefield map, plan ahead
Simplify closing procedures
Identify windows of opportunity and aim at focusing
events
d
i
n
t
h
e
W
e
s
t
B
Oslo Declaration of Principles - Israel and PLO
agree to mutual recognition.
a
n
k
Oslo Interim Agreement signed. Palestinian Authority
to be established.
,
f
o
Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin assassinated by right-wing
Israeli fanatic Yigal Amir. Rabin is replaced by Shimon Peres
l
l
o
Right-Wing Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu
w elected Prime Minister in Israel, replacing Shimon Peres.
i false rumor that a gate opened in an underground tunnel tourist
"Al-Aksa tunnel riots - Arab sources spread the
n
attraction by the Israeli government, endangered
the foundations of the Al-Aqsa mosque. This caused
g
several days of rioting and numerous casualties.
a
l
Israel and Palestinians reach agreement on aIsraeli redeployment in the West-Bank city of Hebron
r
Wye River Plantation talks result in an agreement
for Israeli redeployment and release of political prisoners and
g
renewed Palestinian commitment to correct
its
violations of the Oslo accords including excess police force,
e
illegal arms and incitement in public media
and education.
n
u
Israel elects Labor party leader and FormermGeneral Ehud Barak as Prime Minister in a landslide. Barak promises
rapid progress toward peace.
b
e
Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations fail when Hafez
Assad rejects an Israeli offer relayed by US President Clinton in
r
Geneva.
o
f
Palestinians initiated riots after Israeli opposition
leader Ariel Sharon visited the Temple Mount, which is also the
P
location of the Haram as Sharif holy to Muslims.
Start of Second Intifada See Second Intifada Timeline
a
l
Second Intifada
e
Right-wing Likud leader Ariel Sharon electeds Prime Minister in Israel replacing Ehud Barak and promising "peace
t
and security."
i
The Oslo Process timeline
Sept. 13,
1993
Sept 28,
1995
Nov. 4, 1995
June, 1996
Sept, 1996
Jan 18, 1997
Oct. 1998
May 17, 1999
March, 2000
Sept. 28,
2000
Feb 6, 2001
Sept. 11,
2001
Terror attacks on World Trade Center in NYC and the Pentagon carried out by fanatic Islamic
Al-Qaida group headed by Osama Bin Laden initiate US war on terror. Israel and Palestinians
agree to a cease fire, but it is not implemented.
March-April
2002
Israel conducts operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank, following a large number of
Palestinian suicide attacks on civilian targets. Saudi peace initiative adopted at Beirut summit.
Jan 28,
2003
Elections in Israel give wide margin (40 seats) to right wing Likud party, returning PM Ariel
Sharon for another term.
March
19,2003
US begins invasion of Iraq by a strike against a building where Saddam Hussein and other
leaders are meeting. Baghdad falls, April 9.
Nov 11,
2004
Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat dies.
Jan 9,
2005
Mahmoud Abbas elected President of the Palestinian National Authority.
June, 200
5
Violence flares in Gaza. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Palestinian and Israeli
leaders to ensure coordination of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israeli PM Ariel Sharon and
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas meet in Jerusalem June 21. Sharon announces that
Palestinians have promised to coordinate regarding Gaza withdrawal. PM Abbas postpones
Palestinian legislative elections in order to change the election law, amidst growing concern
that Hamas will trounce Abbas's Fatah party in the elections. Lebanese elections give a
decisive majority to the opposition to Syria, led by Saad Hariri, son of slain leader Rafiq Hariri.
Aug. 15,
Disengagement - Israeli evacuation of Gaza settlements and four West Bank settlements
The Theory of Constraints
Mandates and Coalitions

When you have a number of negotiating counterparts,
you need to know their place in their system that has sent
them, their authority within that administration and the
amount of leeway they have



Mobilizing resources, constituencies and stakeholders;
Identifying policy allies, looking for natural coalitions and shared
interests; asking yourself how motivated these potential coalition
partners are/might be;
Relationship mapping – locating who the real decision maker is.
Who influences him;
Bridging the Gaps through Creativity



Every person comes to the negotiations they’ve been sent
to with his/her own vision, made up of their beliefs,
interests and personal experience
Gain empathy, reverse roles
Harvard’s Professor Robert Mnookin:
Problem Solving is an orientation that seeks to create value
both by minimizing transaction costs and by actively and
creatively searching for trade-offs. The goal is to search for
solutions that best serve your interests, while also respecting
the legitimate needs and interests of the other side.
Momentum and Leverage


Maintaining positive momentum
Confidence building measures:
 It is essential to create the momentum of conceding little
things along the way, in order to bring the other side to
closing event
 Seek to show visible, tangible change
 One needs to know that one has “earned” concessions
from the other side; it is deeply rooted in human nature
Adapting to Changes in Conditions & Circumstances




Situations are constantly changing and you have to
adapt yourself to such changes in accordance with
the conditions and the mood of the people on the
opposite side
Think quickly, systematically and functionally
Every change is important – but nothing is more
significant than getting the substantive agreement
concluded and, subsequently, implemented
Follow your intuition
Leadership



Negotiations from the leaders’ perspective are
merely a mechanism for communicating in order to
implement strategies
A leader should be concentrating on leadership,
setting out principles and general policy, not on the
actual mechanics of the negotiations
The loneliness of the leader at the decisive moment
should be addressed sensibly
International and Political Negotiators


All negotiators need to strive for the pie to be
potentially enlarged
Waiting for ever more ripeness versus the risk of
failing and then overcome the heavy price of
resuming negotiations after such failure
Getting to Closing
In the best-case scenario, the negotiators might
be able to bring the parties to a point from
which an agreement is achievable
 This is the point of balance where the
compromises of one side meet the interests of
the other and vice-versa

Thank you, Shalom, Salam
August 2011