Idea Generation
You must kiss a lot of frogs to find a prince.
3M Folklore
Creativity leads to success. But too much
success robs you of the time to create.
Anon.
Understanding Individual
Creativity
Barriers to creativity
 Past experience
 Quick judgment
 Fear of failure
 Poor problem definition
Overcoming barriers to creativity
 More visualization
 Forced connections (lateral thinking or divergent
thinking)
 Relaxation
 Creativity-aiding tools
New Products–2
Ideas for TV Series
2,000
Ideas
100
Scripts
20
Pilots
5
Scheduled for prime time
1
Success
New Products–3
Some Tools for Idea Generation
 Small’s Ideation Stimulator
 Mindlink - Synectics Process
 Idea Fisher - Forced connections
New Products–4
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
1. Can the dimensions be changed?
Larger
Smaller
Longer
Shorter
Thicker
Thinner
Deeper
Shallower
Stand vertically
Place horizontally
Make slanted or parallel
Stratify
Invert (reverse)
Crosswise (bias, counter)
Converge
Encircle
Intervene
Delineate
Border
Economy-size packages, photo enlargements, puffed cereals
U.S. paper market, hearing aids, tabloid newspapers, pocket flashlight, microfilm
King-sized cigarettes, typewriter carriage for bookkeeping
Men’s shorts, woman’s panties
Rug pads, heavy edge on drinking glasses, glass bricks
Nylon hose, seersucker suits, wristwatches
Deeper pockets in work clothes and army uniforms, grooved battery plates
Wading pools, children's drinking fountain
Skyscrapers (to increase floor space on expensive land), upright piano
Ranch-style homes (to avoid stair climbing)
Reading stands, car mirror, eyeglass frames
Plywood, storage pallets, layer cake
Reversible coats, soft shoes to be worn on either foot, inverted ink and glue stands
Bias brassieres and slips, pinking shears
Mechanical artificial hands, ice tongs
Spring cake form, knitted coasters to slip on bottoms of highball glasses, Life-Savers
Buffers used in drug products to temper a harsh active ingredient
Contour lathe, Scotchlite reflective sheeting
Mats for pictures, movable office partitions, room separators
Source: From Marvin Small, How to Make More Money (New York: Pocket Books, 1959). Copyright 1953, 1981, Marvin Small.
Reprinted by permission of Pocket Books, a Simon & Schuster division of Gulf and Western Corporation.
©
New Products–5
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
2. Can the quantity be changed?
More
Less
Change proportions
Fractionate
Join something
Add something to it
Combined with something
Complete
Extra-pants suits, three stockings (a pair with a spare)
Variety of 1-ounce boxes of cereals, ginger ale splits
Nested chairs or dishes, hot-cold water faucets
Separate packing of crackers inside single box, 16-mm movie film usable as two 8mm
films, faucet spray
Trailer, hose couplings
Cigarette filter tip
Amphibious auto, outboard motors,roadable airplanes
Freezer unit added to refrigerator, Bendix washer and dryer single unit
3. Can the order be changed?
Arrangement
Precedence
Beginning
Assembly or disassembly
Focus
Car steering wheels left handed in United States, right-handed in England, Deweydecimal system of filing
Rear-drive automobiles
Self-starter, red tab to open cigarette package, red string to open Band-Aids
Prefabricated articles, knockdown boat kits
Kellogg packages--Name placed in corner instead of center, Hathaway shirt ads--man
with eye patch
4. Can the time element be changed?
Faster
Slower
Longer
Shorter
Chronologized
Perpetuated
Synchronized
Anticipated
Renewed
Recurrence
Alternated
Quick-drying ink, dictating machine, intercom system
High-tenacity yarns for longer-life tires, 33 1/3-rpm long-playing records
Jiffy insulated bags for ice cream, wood preservative
Pressure cooker, one-minute x-ray machine
Defrosting devices, radio clocks
Photographs, metal plating, permanent magnets
Uniform vacation periods, group travel tours
Thermostat, freezer food-buying plan
Self-charging battery, self -winding watches
Switch clocks for lights and electrical appliances
Cam drive, electric current
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 6
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
5. Can the cause or effect be changed?
Stimulated
Energized
Strengthened
Louder
Softer
Altered
Destroyed
Influenced
Counteracted
Generator
Magneto, power steering
AC-DC transformer, Simonize car coating
Volume control, acoustical aids
Sound insulator, rubber heels
Antifreeze chemicals, meat tenderizers
Tree spraying, breath and perspiration deodorants
Legislation to permit sale of colored oleo, wetting agent catalyst
Circuit breaker, air-conditioning, filters
6. Can there be a change in character?
Stronger
Weaker
Altered
Converted
Substituted
Interchanged
Stabilized
Reversed
Resilient
Uniformity
Cheaper
More expensive
Add color
Change color
Dirt-resistant paint
Pepsi-Cola made less sweet, children’s aspirin
Aged or blended whiskey, transit-mixed cement
Convertiplanes (for vertical and horizontal flight)
Low-calorie salad dressing (made without oils)
Interchangeable parts, all-size socks
Sperry gyroscope, waterproof plastic bandage
Two-way locomotives
Foam-rubber upholstery, cork floors
Standards in foods, drugs, fuels, liquors
Coach air travel, paper cups
Cigarettes in cardboard or metal boxes, deluxe editions of books
Color television, colored plastics
Variously colored toothbrush handles, automobiles, electric light bulbs
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 7
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
7. Can the form be changed?
Animated
Stilled
Speeded
Slowed
Directed
Deviated
Attracted
Repelled
Admitted
Barred
Lifted
Lowered
Rotated
Oscillated
Agitated
Moving staircases, package conveyors
Air brakes
Meat-slicing machine
Shock absorbers, gravel driveway
Flowermeters
Traffic islands
Magnetic devises
Electrically charged fencing
Turnstiles
Gate, fence
Forklift truck
Ship locks
Waring blender, boring machines
Electric fan
Electric scalp stimulator
8. Can the use be adapted?
Men
Women
Children
Old
Handicapped
Foreign
Colognes, lotions
Colored-tip cigarettes
Junior-size tools, cowboy clothes
Walking stick chairs
Chair lifts
Reader’s Digest foreign editions
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 8
Small’s Ideation Stimulator
9. Can the state or conditions be changed?
Hotter
Colder
Harden
Soften
Open or closed
Preformed
Disposable
Incorporated
Parted
Solidified
Liquefied
Vaporized
Pulverized
Abraded
Lubricated
Wetter
Drier
Insulated
Effervesced
Coagulated
Elasticized
Resistant
Lighter
Heavier
Electric hot plates, washed coal
Freezer, thermos jug, water cooler
Bouillon cubes, cream shampoo (instead of liquid)
Krilium soil conditioner, water softeners
Visible record equipment, electronically operated doors
Prefabricated housing, prepared Tom Collins mixer
Bottle caps, Chux disposable diapers, Kleenex tissues
Counting register on printing press, cash registers
Caterpillar tractors, split-level highways
Bakelite and other plastics, citrus concentrates
Chemical plant foods
Nasal medical vaporizers
Powdered eggs, lawn mower attachments to powder leaves, Disposal garbage pulverizer
Snow tires or chains
Self-lubricating equipment
Hydraulic brakes
De-Moist for cellars, tobacco curing
Fiberglass, Dr. Scholl’s foot appliances (insulate feet against pressures)
Alka-Seltzer
Jell-O and Junket desserts
Latex girdles, bubble gum, belts
Rubber footwear
Aluminum luggage, automatic electric blanket
Can opener with weighted stand
New Product Management (Spring 1998), The Penn State University 9
New Product Forecasting
We have two classes of forecasters: Those who
don’t know and those who don’t know that they
don’t know.
- John Kenneth Galbraith
Methods for Forecasting New
Product Sales
Early stages of development
Chain ratio method
Judgmental methods
Scenario Analysis
Diffusion modeling
Later stages of development
Pre-test market methods
Test-market methods
New Products–11
Advantages of
Chain Ratio Method
 Helps forecaster use more information
 Helps distribute errors
 Can partition problem to different members of
a project team
 Can obtain expert help on specific parts
 Can apply different methodologies to different
parts
New Products–12
The Bass Diffusion Model
Model designed to answer the question:
When will customers adopt a new
product or technology?
New Products–13
Assumptions of the
Basic Bass Model

Diffusion process is binary (consumer either adopts, or
waits to adopt)

Constant maximum potential number of buyers (N)

Eventually, all N will buy the product

No repeat purchase, or replacement purchase

The impact of the word-of-mouth is independent of
adoption time

Innovation is considered independent of substitutes

The marketing strategies supporting the innovation are not
explicitly included
New Products–14
Adoption Probability over Time
(a)
1.0
Cumulative
Probability of
Adoption up to
Time t
Introduction
of product
F(t)
Time (t)
(b)
f(t) = d(F(t))
dt
Density Function:
Likelihood of
Adoption at Time t
Time (t)
New Products–15
Number of Cellular Subscribers
9,000,000
5,000,000
1,000,000
1983
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Years Since Introduction
Source: Cellular Telecommunication Industry Association
New Products–16
Sales Growth Model for Durables
(The Bass Diffusion Model)
St = p  Remaining + q  Adopters 
Potential Remaining Potential
Innovation
Effect
Imitation
Effect
where:
St
=
sales at time t
p
=
“coefficient of innovation”
q
=
“coefficient of imitation”
# Adopters
=
S0 + S1 + • • • + St–1
Remaining
Potential
=
Total Potential – # Adopters
New Products–17
Basic Elements of Scenario
Analysis

Structure a scenario as a flowing narrative, not as a set of numerical
parameters. Include verbal descriptions such as “rapid experience
effects,” “FCC adoption of digital standard,” etc. Ideally, each
scenario should also include how the situation described in the scenario
will be reached from the present position.

Construct several scenarios that are approximately equally likely
(Might also include scenarios that are most likely to happen, and least
likely to happen). Describe all scenarios in the same manner, i.e., one is
not more “vivid” than another.

Develop forecasts and strategies that are compatible with the
scenarios:

Robust approaches that are resilient across scenarios (e.g.,
hedging, concurrent pursuit of multiple options, etc.)

Contingent approaches that postpone major commitments to the
future.
New Products–18
Example Scenario
National or international standards on analog HDTV
are adopted and HDTV gets a buy-in by all
stakeholders. The implementation proceeds quickly.
Production studios start producing TV programs in
the new format, and cable and broadcast TV stations
start a rapid upgrade of their equipment to HDTV
format. HDTV sets are retailing at prices
comparable to that of standard TVs of equivalent
screen size. The market penetration starts ramping
up almost immediately.
New Products–19
Another Scenario
A digital HDTV standard is adopted. HDTV sets employ
new technology: they are costly and somewhat unreliable.
It takes a few years to iron out the problems and for the
industry to walk up the learning curve. Early adopters
amongst consumers are frustrated and unhappy, they
comment: “This technology just does not work”. TV
stations drag their feet on upgrades because: “This costly
change comes straight off our bottom line for no additional
benefit to us. We will not get any additional advertising
revenue or higher subscription rates from digital HDTV.”
The penetration starts ramping up only after at least 8
years of lackluster sales.
New Products–20
Parameters of the Bass Model in
Several Product Categories
Product/
Technology
B&W TV
Color TV
Air conditioners
Clothes dryers
Water softeners
Record players
Cellular telephones
Steam irons
Motels
McDonalds fast food
Hybrid corn
Electric blankets
Innovation
parameter
(p)
Imitation
parameter
(q)
0.028
0.005
0.010
0.017
0.018
0.025
0.004
0.029
0.007
0.018
0.039
0.006
0.25
0.84
0.42
0.36
0.30
0.65
1.76
0.33
0.36
0.54
1.01
0.24
A study by Sultan, Farley, and Lehmann in 1990 suggests an
average value of 0.03 for p and an average value of 0.38 for q.
New Products–21
Factors Affecting the
Rate of Diffusion
Product-related

High relative advantage over existing products

High degree of compatibility with existing approaches

Low complexity

Can be tried on a limited basis

Benefits are observable
Market-related

Type of innovation adoption decision (eg, does it involve
switching from familiar way of doing things?)

Communication channels used

Nature of “links” among market participants

Nature and effect of promotional efforts
New Products–22
Some Extensions to the
Basic Bass Model
 Varying market potential
As a function of product price, reduction in uncertainty in
product performance, and growth in population, and increases
in retail outlets.
 Incorporation of marketing variables
Coefficient of innovation (p) as a function of advertising
p(t) = a + b ln A(t).
Effects of price and detailing.
 Incorporating repeat purchases
 Multi-stage diffusion process
Awareness  Interest  Adoption  Word of mouth
New Products–23