The Implications
of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak
On Businesses
in the Global Economy
Gayle Jacobs
Global PRC Associates, LLC
Overview
• A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk
• Effects of a Pandemic on the Global Economy
• Impacts on Companies in West Michigan
• What Are Other Businesses Doing?
– Case Study: The Intel Corporation
• Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
A Flu Pandemic and Political Risk
• Background on Political Risk
• Businesses face risk on political, economic and
sociological levels
• Present clashes in Lebanon disrupting UPS shipments
• Terrorism and kidnapping on BP-Shell oil pipelines in Nigeria
• SARS outbreak in 2003
A transnational health pandemic would have far greater
reach and impact on the global economy than any
one war, embargo or natural disaster.
Effects on the Global Economy
The flow of goods and services thrives with fluid
borders. It is greatly impacted by variables such
as market demand, logistics networks, the
international banking system, technology and at
the root of it all, people.
What does this mean for your business?
Critical Factors
Workforce Shortages
of 30-40%
Logistics:
Trucking,
UPS, FedEx
(Precautionary)
Border Restrictions
Affecting Critical Imports
Or Sales/Exports Overseas
Mfg Plants
Factories
Retail
Call Centers Operations,
Stores
Dramatic Changes to
Your Business Operations
Major Swings in Demand
(Ex: Medical Equipment
Sales, Consumer Goods)
The Domino Effect
Schools close and
parents can no
longer go to work
(at electric company,
factory, etc.)
A supply shortage
causes a disruption
to production
Related
goods
cannot be
produced
Families lose ability
to earn income when
wage earners stay
home due to child
care, fear or illness
Consumers
cannot pay
bills for
utilities and
other goods
Ripple effect
is felt in other
industries, and
it compounds
Businesses
unable to
collect
revenues
to pay
their
obligations
Michigan’s Role in International Trade:
$37 billion in 2005 Exports
Michigan’s Top 15
Export Markets
World Total: $37,584,052
…
…
…
Partner
Amount
Canada
22,633,157
Mexico
4,193,399
Japan
1,070,898
Germany
1,056,962
UK
715,931
China
697,860
Austria
591,512
France
478,730
South Korea
464,907
Belgium
442,777
Brazil
404,462
Saudi Arabia
396,193
Netherlands
385,685
Australia
369,631
Venezuela
357,334
(In Thousands of USD)
Source: The Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and
Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
What Other Businesses Are Doing
A Case Study: Intel Corporation
Intel Corporation, the world leader in silicon
innovation, has nearly 100,000 employees in 199
countries. Their 2005 revenues were $38.8 Billion.
After the SARS outbreak in 2003 which cost the
lives of several of their colleagues in Asia, they aren’t
taking any chances with an Avian Flu Pandemic Threat.
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
• Design Responses Around Each Level of the 6-phase
Threat Scale
• Organize Cross-Functional teams (Preparedness,
Regional Response, Travel, Threat Assessment,
Corporate Emergency Operations Center)
• Start Hygiene Campaign For the Work Place Including
Educational Materials and Hand Sanitizer Pumps
• Establish Corporate Communication Lines (especially
for expatriates) and a Medical Triage Contact Number
• Create System to Track Cases of Illness and Severity
The WHO Global Influenza Scale
Source: World Health Organization
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
Phase 3
Phase 4
Current
• Activate Management Review
Committee/ Task Force Planning
Team/ Regional Teams
• Designate a Centralized
Communications Coordinator
• Promotional Campaign for Good
Hygiene practices
– Install hand gel dispensers
– Ensure adequate supply of
N95 respirators for
employees
• Assist medical personnel to get
Tamiflu “prescription” pre-written
[Intel is not stockpiling
medication]
• Order N95 Respirators
•Encourage regular flu vaccines
• Promote additional food safety
practices
• Stockpile disinfectants and
review cleaning protocols
• Control bird roosting areas at
facilities
Phase 5
Phase 6
Additional Actions
• Start 2X daily building
disinfection
• Implement phone-based
triage & medical case
management for
symptom review &
contact tracing
• Employee and
contractor self-screening
tool distribution in
affected areas
• Restrict travel – General
Manager sign-off
required in both
geographies (going to and
coming from)
•Ensure Medical
Evacuation Protocols
Understood
•Implement 1 800-HotLine / other emergency
communication
procedures
• Employee/contractor
temperature screening at
point of entry (geo
specific)
• Additional disinfection
procedures for cleanrooms & equipment
• Distribute N95
respirators
• Communicate protocols
for working from home
• Review procedure for
closing facilities if cases
occur in work
environment
•Additional cleaning of
gowns/smocks in
factories
• Aggressive
communications and
updates
•Distribute self-care
pandemic information to
employees
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
Track and Manage Any Cases In a Case Management System
Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
Point of Entry Temperature Screening
Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
Above all, communicate with your work force as much as
possible.
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Roles, Responsibilities and Goals for All Involved
Company Approach Toward Managing the Threat
Employee Instructions At Each Phase on the Threat Scale
Any Situational Updates
Trigger Points
Return Policy for Expatriates Overseas
How To Stay In Touch Once Homebound or Ill
Organizational Contact List
Guiding Principles Throughout All Phases (next slide)
A Case Study:
The Intel Corporation
Guiding Principles for Intel’s Pandemic Response:
• We promote a healthy work environment
• We treat people with dignity and respect through
communication and transparency
• We will minimize the spread of infection by partnering
with local governments and public health organizations,
such as WHO and CDC
• We will implement a staggered deployment strategy
based on risk and need at each location/geography
• We will maintain business continuity by developing
appropriate levels of coordination and contingency
planning
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Utilize tools and resources from this summit
Establish a pandemic flu team
First goal: conduct an audit of implications for company
Challenge: report findings to top leadership within 2 weeks
Set measurable goals and constantly monitor progress, get buy-in from
corporate level management to ensure involvement
Tier employees into layers most and least critical to operations; cross train
Tier 2 and 3 staff
Hold leaders accountable for progress and compliance
Examine supplier and other external relationships and identify alternatives and
back-ups
Identify where your business is most vulnerable and back up the weak points
(e.g. “just in time” inventory)
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
You’ve heard the experts – the next pandemic
is not a matter of ‘if ’, but ‘when.’
You have a lot of work to do!
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Consider The Following:
On the morning of September 11, 2001 approximately 19,000 employees were working
in World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 and 58,000 people in the entire World Trade
Center complex. Following the plane impacts, Tower 1 stood for 103 minutes and Tower
2 stood for only 56 minutes.
During that brief time, nearly 17,000 employees evacuated safely. Casualties among
building occupants numbered 2,270 (not including the 403 first responder and 157 plane
passengers). Roughly 88% survived a mass exodus from two of
the tallest structures in the world.
The Explanation:
Consistent and regular fire drills resulted in an
instinctive and orderly evacuation despite conflicting
instructions and limited exit routes. WTC disaster
training saved thousands of lives that day and is one
of the untold success stories of that unforgettable day.
Thank You and Good Luck!
For additional copies of this presentation
Or the “Looking Ahead” checklist contact:
Gayle Jacobs
Gayle.Jacobs@globalprc.com
(703) 585-7647