World Climate Research Programme
Plans and Priorities
Ghassem R. Asrar
Director, WCRP
Outline
WCRP Intermediate Plan
• Joint Scientific Committee
• Joint Planning Staff
• International Project Offices
• Earth System Science Partnership
WCRP Long-Term Plan
• World Climate Conference – 3
• OceanObs09
• ICSU Visioning
• JSC Major Foci
• WCRP Open Science Conference
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme supports climaterelated decision making and adaptation and mitigation
planning by developing science required to improve
(1) climate predictions and
(2) understanding of human influence on climate
“for
use in an increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value to society”
(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
Intermediate and Long-Term Plans
2008-2013: WCRP activities and core projects
implementing the Strategic Framework COPES
(Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth
System)
Post-2013: to achieve a more effective interface with
the users of climate informational products, a new
WCRP structure will be needed
Intermediate Plan: Pre-2013
•
Major scientific challenges at the interface of physical components of
the climate system: the oceans, the cryosphere, the water and energy
cycle and the atmosphere. The complex interactions within and among
them.
•
Highlights activities that WCRP will implement to reach its goal of
delivering science in support of societal needs
•
Major thrusts: Decadal Prediction, Sea-level rise, climate extremes and
atmospheric chemistry – climate interactions.
•
Ongoing areas of investigation: climate change projections, seasonal
predictions, monsoons
Intermediate Plan: Pre-2013
Activities in support of WCRP Integrating Themes:
•
•
•
•
Climate-quality datasets and analysis: capacity for gathering,
processing and sharing observational data for model evaluation
and initialization. Observations
New generation of climate system models: seamless prediction,
higher-spatial resolution, better representation of earth system
processes. Models, Computers, Network
Next generation of climate experts: building capacity regionally
and globally. Leadership
Building partnership with relevant GEC programmes and GCOS,
WWRP, GEO, World Bank, START. Institutions
Joint Scientific Committee
Members
• JSC focus on long-term strategy
JSC
Antonio Busalacchi, USA (Chair)
Dave J. Griggs, Australia (Vice-Chair)
Jochem Marotzke, Germany (Officer)
V. Ramaswamy, USA (Officer)
Carolina Vera, Argentina (Officer)
Guoxiong Wu, China (Officer)
Kwabena Anaman, Ghana (Member)
Reza Ardakanian, Germany/Iran (Member)
Gregory Flato, Canada (Member)
Julia Slingo, UK (Member)
Ilana Wainer, Brazil (Member)
Hervè Le Treut, France (Member)
New members
(as of 1 January 2009)
Sarah Gille, USA
Filipo Giorgi, Italy
B. Goswami, India
Vladimir Kattsov, Russia
Teruyuki Kakajima, Japan
Fredrick Semazzi, Uganda/USA
Joint Planning Staff Members
• WCRP Secretariat is located in Geneva, Switzerland.
Ghassem Asrar
Director
Valery Detemmerman
Senior Scientific Officer
Ann Alturo
Administrative Assistant
Anne Chautard
Administrative Assistant
Margaret Lennon
Vladimir Ryabinin
Senior Secretary
Senior Scientific Officer
Catherine Michaut
Roberta Boscolo
Communication/Scientific
Officer
French Support Unit
located in Paris
International Programme Offices
Members
• Projects focus on COPES implementation
CLIVAR
SPARC
Jim Hurrell, USA (Co-Chair)
Ted Shepard, Canada (Co-Chair)
Martin Visbeck, Germany (Co-Chair)
Tom Peter, Switzerland (Co-Chair)
Howard Cattle, UK (ICPO Director)
Norm McFarlane, Canada (IPO Director)
IPO located in UK
IPO located in Canada
CliC
GEWEX
Konrad Steffen, USA (Chair)
Tom Ackerman, USA (Chair)
Daqing Yang, USA (CIPO Director)
Peter van Oevelen, NL (IPO Director)
IPO located in Norway
IPO located in USA
Earth System Science
Partnership
•
The Earth System Science Partnership is a partnership of four international
global environmental change (GEC) research programme for the integrated
study of the Earth System, the changes that are occurring to the system and
the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability.
ESSP Scientific Committee
•
The ESSP Scientific Committee is composed of International Council for
Science (ICSU) appointed members (including the chair), GEC research
programmes chairs and directors, an ICSU representative, the ESSP
coordinator……
ICSU Appointed
Rik Leemans, NL (Chair)
Jerry M. Melillo, USA
IHDP
Oran Young, USA (Chair)
Vacant (Director)
ICSU
Deliang Chen, FR (Director)
WCRP
Antonio Busalacchi, USA (Chair)
Ghassem Asrar, SWI (Director)
DIVERSITAS
Harold Mooney, USA (Chair)
Anne Larigauderie, FR (Director)
IGBP
Carlos Nobre, BR (Chair)
Sybil Seitzinger, SWE (Director)
ESSP
Martin Rice, FR (Coordinator)
ESSP Projects
• ….. and representatives of each joint project, integrated
regional study and START.
Global Carbon Project (GCP)
Corinne Le Quere, UK (Co-Chair)
Philippe Ciais, FR (Co-Chair)
Anand Patwardhan, INDIA (Co-Chair)
Josep Canadel, AUS (Director)
Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study
(MAIRS)
Congbin Fu, CHINA (Chair)
Alikun, CHINA (Director)
GEC and Food System (GECAFS)
Diana Liverman, USA (Chair)
John Ingram, UK (Director)
Climate Food, Agriculture and Food
Security (CCAFS)
Thomas Rosswall, FR (Chair)
Bruce Campbell, DEN (Director)
Global Water System Project (GWSP)
Charles Vorosmarty, UK (Co-Chair)
Janos Bogardi, GER (Director)
START
Gordon McBean, CAN (Co-Chair)
Hassan Virji, USA (Director)
GEC and Human Health (GECHH)
Ulisses Confalonieri, BR (Co-Chair)
Mark Rosenberg, CAN (Co-Chair)
WCRP Partnerships
• Build on the existing partnerships:
– SOLAS;
– WGCM + AIMES;
– SPARC + IGAC: Atmospheric Chemistry &
Climate;
– CLIVAR + PAGES;
– CLIVAR + IMBER;
– GEWEX + iLEAPS…
Extend and strengthen them.
http://www.gewex.org/2009gewex_ileaps_
conf.html
Land in the Climate System
Land in the Climate System
GEWEX Products
NEW! IMPROVED!
Version 2.1 of Monthly
GEWEX Global
Precipitation
Climatology
(see Huffman et al., 2009 GRL [accepted])
V2.1-V2
Main changes over land due
to improved gauge analysis
by German Weather Service
(GPCC) group giving
improved analysis over
orography and slight
increase in mean values
Figures: (a) Climatology for GPCP Version 2.1 in mm/d, and (b) (Version 2.1 –
Version 2) difference averaged over 1979-2007 in mm/d.
Integrated Observations and Modelling
Outline
WCRP Intermediate Plan
• Joint Scientific Committee
• Joint Planning Staff
• International Project Offices
• Earth System Science Partnership
WCRP Long-Term Plan
• World Climate Conference – 3
• OceanObs09
• ICSU Visioning
• JSC Major Foci
• WCRP Open Science Conference
Future Directions: Post-2013
Long-Term Strategy: New WCRP themes/structure to promote/facilitate:
•
Research on frontiers of climate/Earth system
•
The need for & use of climate information, products & services
• Three or four Themes/Panels?
• Regional climate prediction as a separate theme or fitted better within a
processes/modelling theme or an applications/impacts theme?
• What’s the role, nature, duration of cross-cutting activities?
• How to ensure societal needs are met and there is effective engagement
with stakeholders?
• How to ensure continued engagement of climate research community, i.e.
scientists, sponsors, project offices, etc., in any new theme/structure?
Future Directions
Looking to the future:
•The vision post 2013 was strongly influenced by the evolution of
climate science, research, and education in the 1980’s, 1990’s,
2000+ across the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryopshere.
•Looking to the future, a major envisioned challenge and
opportunity at the intersection of WCRP+IGBP is the basic and
applied research in support of the:
–Prediction of the Earth System.
•“Propose to IGBP SC the formation of a WCRP/IGBP task team to develop a
white paper discussing a strategy for predictive Earth system modeling.”
Future Functions
WCRP should maintain the rigor of its science and remained
focused on core physical science, addressing new science
areas in partnerships with others - don’t drop key issues but
maintain freedom to operate
The function of WCRP should be to provide the science that
underpins understanding and predicting of climate leading
to societal benefits. Communication and capacity building
are also key issue, ref. COPES document
An emerging demand is a need to move to regional scales
whilst from a science perspective recognize the importance
of getting the global scales right. WCRP needs to have the
capability to enable climate prediction from seasonal to
century and global to local scales.
Future Structure
Accept what is now called Core Project(s) to describe the
essential elements of the climate system, and structure
WCRP activities along the Earth/climate system
themes, e.g. ocean-atmosphere, land-atmosphere,
troposphere-stratosphere, etc.
Rebuild the panel/committee structure, as necessary with
an eye on the matrix structure (methodologies,
interactions).
Crosscuts are essential to address the important science
issues; they may have limited lifetime.
WCC-3 Conference Statement
• Great recognition of scientific progress made through
WCRP and its associated activities
• Call for major strengthening of observations and research
Support the development
of the Global Framework
for Climate Services
WCC3 – Expert Segment
Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global
framework for climate services:
 The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and
associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange
and access to climate data;
 The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by
adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other
global climate relevant research initiatives.
 Climate services information systems taking advantage of
enhanced existing national and international climate service
arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented
information to support adaptation activities;
 Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages
and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and
users of climate services; and
 Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training,
and strengthened outreach and communication.
WCC3 – High-Level Segment
Decided to establish a Global Framework for
Climate Services
 WMO will take the lead in putting together a task-force
of high-level independent advisors
 The task-force will make recommendations on the
elements of the Framework and the steps for its
development and implementation
 WMO congress in 2011 will review the
recommendations with a view to adopt the proposed
plans
Conference Statement
VISION:
Provision of routine and sustained global information on the marine
environment sufficient to meet society’s needs for describing,
understanding and forecasting marine variability (….), weather,
seasonal to decadal climate variability, climate change, sustainable
management of living marine resources, and assessment of longer
term trends.
http://www.oceanobs09.net
Earth System Visioning
ICSU 29th General Assembly (Maputo, October 2008)
“to note that Committee on Scientific
Planning Review (CSPR) is planning to
organize a consultation, including a highlevel meeting, with relevant partners to
outline options for an overall framework
for global environmental change research
and its policy relevance, once the reviews
of IGBP and WCRP are completed.”
Three Step Process
Goal: to engage the scientific community to explore options
and to propose implementation steps for a holistic strategy
on the Earth system research. This strategy will both
encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs
Criteria for selection
•
Scientific importance. Does the question address a cutting-edge research
challenge that could plausibly be addressed in the next decade that, if answered,
can significantly advance our understanding of Global Change?
•
Policy relevance. Will the answer to the question help to achieve pressing
global needs, including promoting sustainability, reducing poverty, and assisting
the most vulnerable in coping with Global Change?
•
Broad support. Does the question have broad support from the research and
funding community (even those not directly involved in answering the question)?
•
Global coordination. Is a coordinated international or global approach involving
multiple researchers and disciplines needed to answer the question?
•
Leverage. Does the answer to the question involve a scientific or technical
breakthrough, or would it create a transferable model, that would help to address
multiple problems or challenges related to Global Change Science?
DRAFT: Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability
A Systems Approach to Research Priorities for the
Decade
• Challenge #1: Substantially improve the utility and reduce the
uncertainty associated with regional forecasts of future
environmental conditions and their consequences for people.
• Challenge #2: Develop the observation systems needed to manage
global environmental change.
• Challenge #3: Determine how to anticipate, avoid and cope with
dangerous global environmental change.
• Challenge #4: Develop institutional and governance arrangements
that can ensure global sustainability.
• Challenge #5: Develop and evaluate innovative responses to
achieve global sustainability.
Earth System Visioning
Common Threads
• Broader base of expertise:
– interdisciplinarity → transdisciplinarity
– broader expertise in the social sciences
(beyond geography and economics->
sociology/ psychology, ethics)
– need for expertise in engineering/technology
– need for communication experts
• Enthusiasm of the community
Deliberation
• World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs09 and Earth
System Visioning acknowedge WCRP past
contribution and identify future challenges and
opportunities.
• Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to
expanding users needs, this include information:
• At regional scale
• For key sectors of global economy
• For adaptation, mitigation and risk
management
Deliberation
• JSC focus on four major enabling themes to underpin
scientific exploration and climate information delivery
and applications:
• Observation and Analysis
• Process understanding
• Model development, projections and prediction
• Climate Information and Application
• Discussions and plans are underway for transition
from now to mid- next decade
2011 WCRP Open Science Conference
Climate Research in Service to Society
Conference Objective
•The aim of WCRP is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth’s climate
system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical
applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
• The Open Science Conference will thus assemble the scientific community
working to advance our ability to understand and predict variability and
change of the Earth’s climate system on all time and space scales.
•Through this synthesis of research findings and knowledge, WCRP will
better inform assessments and prediction science practitioners on the state
of climate science research, describe the challenges of the future, and chart
pathways forward for WCRP.
2011 WCRP Open Science Conference
Climate Research in Service to Society
•Monday: The Climate System Components and Their
Interactions
•Tuesday: Observation and Analysis of the Climate System
•Wednesday: Improving Predictive Capabilities
•Thursday: Environmental Assessments
•Friday (early a.m.): Regional Climate
Friday (late a.m.): Challenges and the Future
Summary
• WCRP and sister International Global Change
Research Programmes will continue to coordinate
and integrate their scientific activities
• The emerging science questions/priorities are more
complex and transdisciplinary in nature, thus
requiring greater attention to the governance of the
Programme(s)
• The challenge is to maintain the broad-base of
research for responding to the emerging scientific
challenges/opportunites, and to develop the
necessary integrating themes for greater uptake of
the scientific results in response to the fast emerging
needs by decision makers