Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Byron Woertz, Senior Project
Manager
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2
Changes Since Last Revision
• Consistent references to 1960-1979 as reference point for
temperature change
• Minor textual changes
• Additional references to potential impacts of climate change
(generator performance, possible spread of pathogens, population
migration)
• References to geographical differences in climate change impacts
• Reference to possible impacts of increased lightning strikes
• Additional references to implementation of newer technologies
(microgrids, optimized DR)
• Removal of references to implied connections between economic
growth/policies and climate change
• Added potential impacts on reliability standards
• Tables and references moved to appendices
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Potential Textual Changes
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Issue
Option 1
Narrative reference
to GHG
accumulations
policies are put in place to slow their use. By 2034 Omit the sentence
it is clear that efforts to constrain fossil fuel use are
not at levels sufficient to slow atmospheric
greenhouse gas (GHG) accumulations primarily due
to global economic expansion, continued
population growth and the desire to sustain the
rise of middle class lifestyles in developing
countries.
Impacts of
economic and
technological
development
Despite these changes, economic development
and a variety of technological drivers have not
reversed the long-term trend toward a higher
average global temperature.
Delete the sentence.
Early Indicators
Leave discussion of Early Indicators as is
Delete Early
Indicators
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Option 2
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Next Steps
Create Scenario
Assess System Impacts
Create Study Cases
Evaluate Potential Reliability
Risks
Consider Possible
Risk Mitigations
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5
Next Steps
Create Scenario
Assess System Impacts
Create Study Cases
Evaluate Potential Reliability
Risks
Impacts of climate
change on the
electrical system
Consider Possible
Risk Mitigations
Quantify impacts
Regional impacts of
temperature rise
Rainfall and amount
and timing of runoff
Impacts on demand
Impacts on hydro
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6
Next Steps
Create Scenario
Assess System Impacts
Create Study Cases
Evaluate Potential Reliability
How can WECC
Risks
Consider Possible
Risk Mitigations
model impacts with
existing tools?
What changes
might be needed to
the transmission
system?
Goal: understand
needed grid
modernization
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7
Next Steps
Create Scenario
Assess System Impacts
Create Study Cases
Evaluate Potential Reliability
Risks
Consider Possible
Risk Mitigations
Do any of the
system impacts
present potential
reliability risks?
Some impacts, if
not addressed,
could pose risks to
reliability
Other impacts may
be negligible
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8
Next Steps
Create Scenario
Assess System Impacts
Create Study Cases
Evaluate Potential Reliability
Risks
Consider Possible
Risk Mitigations
What actions could
mitigate potential
risks?
Which actions
would be the
responsibility of
WECC vs. other
organizations?
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9
Action Item
“The Scenario Planning Steering Group approves
the report titled ‘WECC Energy-Water-Climate
Change Scenario,’ as amended during the May 5,
2015 meeting, and recommends proceeding
with the additional actions for completing the
work that are described in Figure 2 and
associated narrative of the report ‘WECC
Approach to Evaluating Reliability Risks Related
to Climate Change.’”
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10
Questions
Byron Woertz
bwoertz@wecc.biz
(801) 883-6841
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