The Environmental Impact of
Agriculture and Energy Use
Ideas for a Roadmap for
Biomass Technologies
Staur Gjestegård, Stange, Norge
August 2004
On the way to our roadmap
• Today’s realities
• Tomorrow’s needs
• Our role
Billions
World Population Growth 1750-2100
10
8
6
4
Developing Countries
2
Industrial Countries
1750
1800
Source: Population Reference Bureau
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
Have Oil
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Kuwait
Iran
UAE
Venezuela
Russia
Libya
Mexico
China
Nigeria
U.S.
26%
11%
10%
9%
8%
6%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
Use Oil
U.S.
Japan
China
Germany
Canada 4%
Russia
Brazil
S. Korea 3%
France
India
Mexico
Italy
26%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest
consuming nations combined.
Updated March 2003. Source: International Energy Annual 2001 (EIA), Tables 11.4 and 11.10.
Changes in Atmospheric
Concentration
1750
340
320
300
280
260
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1250
1000
750
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
310
290
2000
270
250
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Atmospheric concentration N2O (pbb)
360
Atmospheric concentration CO2 (ppm)
1500
Atmospheric concentration CH4 (ppb)
CO2, CH4, and N20 – A Thousand Year History
The nature of value, and the
value of nature
Vision - macro
Vision - nano
Implications of the Genomic
Revolution
•The Molecular Economy
•Carbohydrate
•Lipid
•Protein
•Biopolymers
Harvesting for the
carbohydrate economy
Starting points for our
roadmap
• Our meeting last year and again today
– The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and
Energy Use: How New Technologies, Including
Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions
• University of Minnesota Initiative in
Renewable Energy & Environment
Initiative for Renewable
Energy and the Environment
MISSION: To promote statewide economic
development, sustainable, healthy, and
diverse ecosystems, and national energy
security through development of bio-based
and other renewable resources and
processes.
www.iree.umn.edu
Opportunities
• Use renewable resources for CO2-neutral
production of energy and materials.
• Move closer to real-time use of
photosynthesis.
Goals and objectives
•
•
•
•
Leadership in research and demonstration.
Create jobs.
Promote the hydrogen economy.
Use renewables to replace fossil fuels for
– energy
– chemicals
– materials
• Foster communication and collaboration.
IREE core values
• Leveraging resources
• Partnerships
• Impact
University of Minnesota Initiative for Renewable Energy and the Environment
External Adv. Board
Executive Committee
Director/Assoc. Director
Working Group
Cluster Leader Council
Hydrogen
Bioenergy and
Bioproducts
Policy, Economics, and
Ecosystems
Conservation and
Efficient Energy
Systems
Starting points for our
roadmap
• Our meeting last year and again today
– The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy
Use: How New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide
Sustainable Solutions
• University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable
Energy & Environment
• Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United
States, December 2002
– www.nrel.gov
Roadmap for Biomass
Technologies in the US: Vision
• Biopower
– Double each decade through 2030
• Biobased Transportation Fuels
– 0.5% (now); 4% (2010); 10% (2020); 20%
(2030)
• Biobased Products
– 5% (now); 12% (2010); 18% (2020); 25%
(2030)
Research, Development &
Policy Needs to Achieve Goals
• Feedstock production
– Biotechnology, genetics and plant physiology
– Agronomic practices
– Feedstock handling
Research, Development &
Policy Needs to Achieve Goals
• Processing and conversion
–
–
–
–
Biorefinery concept
Thermochemical conversion
Bioconversion
Enabling technologies
Research, Development &
Policy Needs to Achieve Goals
• Product uses and distribution
– Biorefinery development and demonstration
projects
Research, Development &
Policy Needs to Achieve Goals
• Public policy measures
–
–
–
–
–
–
Incentives
Education
Resource supply
Environmental measures
Standards and codes
Financial assistance
Starting points for our
roadmap
• Our meeting last year and again today
– The Environmental Impact of Agriculture and Energy Use: How
New Technologies, Including Biotechnology, Can Provide Sustainable Solutions
• University of Minnesota Initiative in Renewable Energy &
Environment (www.iree.umn.edu)
• Roadmap for Biomass Technologies in the United States,
December 2002 (www.nrel.gov)
• Multifunctional Agriculture - the case of Norway
• Norwegian Forests - Policy and Resources
Outcomes for our partnership
• By tomorrow
– Vision
– Roadmap
– Mechanisms for success
• By next year
• Five years from now