Introduction & Overview
Max Cameron
Poli 332 UBC
April 8, 2015
Stylized Facts
19th C to 1930
1930-1960
1960-1980
1980-2000
2000-
Agro-export
economy
ISI &
Incorporation
Exhaustion
of ISI
Neoliberalism
Left turns
Anarchy
Oligarchy
Populism
Authoritarian rule
Re-democratization
Pact
Re-founding
Breakdown
Modal Patterns I & II
19th C to 1930
Agro-ex economy
Pattern I
Long
period of
anarchy
1930-1960
1960-1980
1980-2000
2000-
ISI & Inc
Exhaustion of ISI
Neoliberalism
Left turns
Caudillo
oligarchy
Radical
populism
Democracy of low
intensity citizenship
Highly repressive
authoritarianism
Pact
Breakdown
Pattern II
Short
period of
anarchy
Constitutional
oligarchy
Moderate
populism
Less repressive
authoritarianism
Citizens’ democracy
Structural Conditions
• Colonial legacies (proximity to core)
• Indigenous peoples (tranculturation)
• Type of agriculture (labour repressive or
ranching)
• Extractivism (abundance or scarcity of natural
resources)
• Patterns of foreign influence and intervention
Process
•
•
•
•
Anarchy (long or short)
Oligarchy (repressive or constitutional)
Populism (radical or moderate)
Level of threat perception and repression
(high or low)
• Neoliberalism (vigorous or mild) and
redemocratization
Cases
How do the following
cases fit the stylized
facts about Latin
America?
• Argentina
• Venezuela
• Bolivia
• Mexico
• Colombia
•
•
•
•
•
Chile
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Brazil
– See Country Scores:
Structure & Process
Questions?
• How did post-independence anarchy impact subsequent
political development?
• What kind of oligarchies were most hostile to democratic
reform?
• How did the type of populist mobilization affect military
rule?
• Is revolution a viable alternative political model?
• Were pacts lasting solutions or merely the deferral of
deeper problems?
• What is the effect of levels of repression on democracy?
• What countries were most likely to make left turns?
• Is Latin America undergoing a “second incorporation”?