Reducing the Gap in Achievement &
Graduation:
Start With
Monitoring
Chronic Absence
(September 28, 2012)
Hedy Chang, Director hedy@attendanceworks.org

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An Antidote to Drop-Out
Attendance Every Day
Achievement Every Year
Attainment Over Time
Developed by Annie E. Casey Foundation & America’s Promise Alliance
For more info go to www.americaspromise.org/parentengagement
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Unpacking Attendance Terms
Average Daily
Attendance
• Definition: The % of enrolled students who attend school each day
• Answers: What resources are needed to serve typical number of students who show up to school?
Truancy
• Definition: Typically refers only to unexcused absences and is defined by each state . In CA, truancy is defined as missing school 3 times without a valid excuse or being late to class by more than 30 minutes without a valid excuse.
• Answers: How many/which students are skipping school and breaking the law?
Chronic
Absence
• Definition: Missing 10% or more of school for any reason – excuse, unexcused, etc.
• Answers: How many and which students are missing so much school they are academically at risk? Do we need to improve attendance in order to raise achievement?
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When 90% Doesn’t Earn an “A”
Students Who Miss More Than 10% Of School
Are At Grave Academic Risk
0-90%
91-94%
95 %+
Chronic Absence
(=>10% absence)
Warning Signs
(<10% but >5% absence)
Satisfactory Attendance
(=<5% absence)
Emergency: =>20% absence
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Chronic Absence is a Hidden
National Crisis
 Nationwide, as many as 7.5 million students miss nearly a month of school every year.
 In some cities, as many as one in four students are missing that much school.
 Chronic absenteeism is a red alert that students are headed for academic trouble and eventually for dropping out of high school.
 Poor attendance isn’t just a problem in high school. It can start as early as kindergarten .
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Students Chronically Absent in
Kindergarten & 1 st Grade Much Less
Likely to Read Proficiently in 3 rd Grade
Percent Students Scoring Proficient or Advanced on 3 rd Grade
ELA Based on Attendance in Kindergarten and 1 st Grade
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
64%
43%
41%
17%
No attendance risks
No risk
Small risk
Moderate risk
High risk
Small attendance risks Moderate attendance risks
Missed less than 5% of school in K & 1 st
Missed 5-9% of days in both K & 1 st t
5-9% of days absent in 1 year &10 % in 1 year
Missed 10% or more in K & 1 st
High attendance risks
Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)
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In Baltimore, chronic absence in both preK and K predicted significantly worse outcomes including
 Greater likelihood of continued poor attendance.
50% chronically absent again in G1, 45% in G2.
 Lower outcomes in G1, G2 in reading and math, and math in G3.
 More often retained (26% compared with 9% of students with no chronic absence).
 More likely to be identified as needing special education.
 Worst outcomes for children who did not attend preK.
By contrast, children who participated in Head Start had better attendance and higher 3 rd grade test scores.
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The Long-term impact of Chronic
Kindergarten Absence Is Most
Troubling for Poor Children
K Chronic Absence Associated with Lower 5 th Grade Math and
Reading Performance Even When Attendance Improved in 3 rd Grade
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
0-3.3% in K 3.3 - 6.6% in K 6.6-10.0% in K
Absence Rate in Kindergarten
>=10.0% in K
Source: ECLS-K data analyzed by National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP)
Note: Average academic performance reflects results of direct cognitive assessments conducted for ECLS-K.
Reading
Math
9


Chronic Absence is Especially
Challenging for Low-Income Children
Poor children are 4x more likely to be chronically absent in K than their highest income peers.
 Children in poverty are more likely to lack basic health and safety supports that ensure a child is more likely to get to school. They often face:






Unstable Housing
Limited Access to Health Care
Poor Transportation
Inadequate Food and Clothing
Lack of Safe Paths to School Due to Neighborhood
Violence
Chaotic Schools with Poor Quality Programs, etc.
* (Romero & Lee 2007 )
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Chronically Absent 6th Graders Have
Lower Graduation Rates
Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance
(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990-2000 Sixth Grade Cohort)
Severely
Chronically
Absent
Chronically
Absent
Not
Chronically
Absent
Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009-2010
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9th Grade Attendance Predicts
Graduation for Students of All
Economic Backgrounds
Need to recolor chart
Note: This Chicago study found attendance was a stronger graduation predictor than 8th grade test scores.
Source: Allensworth & Easton, What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in
Chicago Public Schools , Consortium on Chicago School Research at U of C, July 2007
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Moving into Action Requires Knowing
If Chronic Absence is a Problem
Most Schools Only Track Average Daily Attendance and Truancy.
Both Can Mask Chronic Absence
.
Chronic Absence For 7 Elementary Schools in
Oakland, CA with @ 95% ADA in 2012
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
7%
12%
13% 13%
15%
16%
A B C D
% Chronic Absence
E F
98% ADA = little chronic absence, 95%ADA = don’t know;
93% ADA = significant chronic absence 13

Sporadic — Not Just Consecutive –
Absences Matter
New York City Schools
A 407 alert is issued when student misses 10 consecutive days or 20 days over a 40 day period. It misses more sporadic absence.
1 out of 5 elementary school children were chronically absent.
Source: Nauer K et al, Strengthening Schools by Strengthening Families , Center for
New York City Affairs New School, Oct 2008
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Chronic Absence Versus Truancy
(San Francisco Unified School District)
(Note: SFUSD identified chron/hab truants as = 10 unexcused absences) 15

Data is Needed for Identifying
Programmatic Solutions
 Chronic absence data (as well as other attendance measures) should be examined by classroom, grade, school, neighborhood or sub-population.
 If chronic absence is unusually high for a particular group of students, explore what might be common issues (unreliable transportation, community violence, asthma and other chronic diseases, poor access to health care, unnecessary suspension for non-violent offenses, lack of engaging curriculum, child care or afterschool programming, foreclosures, etc.)
 If chronic absence is unusually low for a high-risk population, find out what they are doing that works.
16
16

Elementary Absenteeism
Concentrated in West Oakland
17

Schools + Communities CAN
Make a Difference
Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives







Partner with community agencies to help families carry out their responsibility to get children to school.
Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress over time.
Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing school, family, and community issues that contribute to chronic absence.
Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to students and families.
Begin early, ideally in Pre-K.
Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that nurture an engaged learning environment, build a culture of attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school.
Offer positive supports before punitive action .
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Increased Attendance Involves a
3-Tiered Approach that Fits with Most
Reform Efforts
High
Cost
Students who were chronically absent in prior year or starting to miss 20% or more of school
Recovery
Programs
A small fraction of a school’s students
Students at risk for chronic absence
Intervention
Programs
Some of a school’s students
All students in the school
Universal/Preventive
Programs
All of a school’s students
Low
Cost
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Solutions Only Work If Grounded in
Understanding Of What Leads to Chronic
Absence
Discretion
Parents don’t know attendance matters
School lacks a strong culture of attendance
Aversion
Child is struggling academically
Child is being bullied
Barriers
Lack of access to health care
No safe path to school
Poor transportation
Special thanks to Dr. Robert Balfanz, Everyone Graduates Center, Johns
Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD for providing this framework.
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Proposed Universal Strategies For
Influencing Discretion and Identifying
Causes of Absence
Recognize Good &
Improved
Attendance
Parent and
Student
Engagement
Personalized Early
Outreach
School Team
Monitoring
Attendance Data
& Practice
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Strategies for 3 Tiered Approach
Universal strategies are part of tiered interventions
•
•
Case management and wrap-around services
Referral as last resort for court-based intervention Recovery
Programs
Recovery
Programs •
•
•
Early outreach, support, mentoring for students with poor attendance
Identify and remove barriers
Attendance contracts Intervention
Programs
Universal/Preventive
Universal/Preventive
Programs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Safe and supportive school environment
Engaging classroom environments
Parent education about why attendance matters and how to help each other get students to school
On-going attention to attendance data
Recognition for good and improved attendance
Collaboration with afterschool and early childhood
School-based health support
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Conveys importance of building a habit of attendance
& what is chronic absence
Is accurate, regularly reported and easily obtained
Ingredients For Success &
Sustainability in a District
Messaging
Capacity
Building
Strengthens
Family/School
Relationship
Data Accountabilit y
Expands ability to interpret data and adopt best practices
Ensures monitoring
& incentives to reduce chronic absence
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Putting in Place A Systemic &
Sustainable Approach
Own the
Issue
Mobilize the
Community
Drive With
Data
Register at: www.attendanceworks.org/superintendents-call-to-action
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Lessons Learned
Avoid the blame game. Find out how everyone can contribute to reducing absences.
Use data to identify priorities where you can make the greatest impact – for example -the transitions to K and 9 th grade.
Provide positive supports first – it’s less costly and more effective.
Build ownership at the school site level. But, remember schools can’t do it alone!
Engage in systemic reform by bringing together key stakeholders at district/community level and staffing the coordinated effort.
Reducing chronic absence takes time and sustained attention.
Especially as students get older, combine attention to attendance with other early warning indicators.
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Robert Balfanz
Everyone Graduates Center
Johns Hopkins University

• To graduate college and career ready, students need to successfully navigate several key transitions and acquire a set of academic behaviors - in short they need to learn how to succeed at school
• Students signal that they are on- or off-track towards these outcomes through their attendance, behavior, and course performancethe ABC’s

Substantial Numbers of Future Dropouts can be identified in as early as 6 th grade
•
•
The Primary Off-Track Indicators for
Potential Dropouts:
A attendance
B
ttendance - <85-90% school
ehavior - “unsatisfactory” behavior mark in at least one class
100%
Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an
Early Warning Indicator
% of 80% students who are on-
60% track to graduation
40%
20%
Attendance
Behavior
Math
Literacy
0%
• C ourse Performance – A final grade of
“F” in Math and/or English or Credit-
Bearing HS Course
6t h
7t h
8t h
9t h
10 th
11 th
Grade in School
12 th
G ra du at io n
+
1 ye ar
Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may have only a 15% to 25% chance of graduating from high school on time or within one year of expected graduation
Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities.
Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund

In High Poverty School Districts, 75% or More of Eventual
Dropouts Can be Identified between the 6 th and 9 th Grade
Percent of Dropouts That Can Be
Identified between the 6th and 9th grade-Boston Class of 2003
End of 6th Grade
24%
End of 9th Grade
43%
32%
No Off Track
Indicator 6th-9th
Grade

• By tracking the ABC’s it is possible to identify when students are beginning to fall off-track, providing time to intervene and alter their trajectory through school and beyond
• Using ABC Early Indicator data it is possible to design more targeted and effective interventions at the individual, classroom, school, and even district and state levels.

• Virtually all students with a B average or higher in the 9 th grade graduate in 4 years
• The vast majority of students with multiple failures in the 9 th grade will not graduate
• Students with D+/C averages are harder to predict and can go either way

• Students’ behaviors are the main drivers of course failure
– Attendance is 8 times more predictive of failure than prior test scores
• Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of course failures
• Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total)
• Student behaviors--absences and effort- explain an additional 61%
(73% total)
– Attendance is also the strongest predictor of course grades, although prior academic ability is also very important for high grades

• Not having any off-track indicators for high school graduation leads to increased odds of post-secondary attainment
• But to have high odds of post-secondary attainment students need to have a very strong 9 th grade year-strong attendance, no behavior problems, B or better average-and be on-age
• Low ABC’s predict high school dropout, high ABC’s predict post-secondary success
• Means we can have unified high school graduation to postsecondary success indicator system

Males Incarcerated in High
School-Philadelphia
Females Who Give Birth in
High School-Philadelphia
67%
33%
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator
67%
33%
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator

• Combine ready access, at the classroom level, to on- and off-track indicators (the ABC’s), with regular time to analyze the data and an organized response system that can act upon early warning data in both a systematic and tailored manner.
• The most effective school-level intervention systems combined whole-school/classroom prevention, targeted problem solving and moderate intensity supports when prevention does not work, and case managed high intensity supports for the neediest students.
• Investments in mission-building, professional development, coaching and networking are critical to success

• Attendance-missing 10% or 20 or more days of school
• Behavior-Two or more behavior infractions in a year (e.g. suspensions) or sustained mild misbehavior
• Course Performance-Failing a math or English class in the middle grades, failing two or more credit bearing courses in high school
• Specific cut points can and will vary around these normative thresholds depending on trade offs between efficiency (i.e. minimizing false positives) and yield (capturing large percent of students on path to dropping out), as well as, whether triggers are being set for monitoring and problem solving vs. substantial intervention

• Without additional support to provide interventions at the scale and intensity required to meet each student’s individual needs, teachers can easy feel overwhelmed.
• Research has shown that when teachers feel overwhelmed by the level of challenge in high needs schools, they will often lower expectations for students.
Attendance
Behavior
Comments
Math
Grades
Literacy
Grades Assessments
A
07-08: 08-09:
Days Days
Absent Absent
07-08: 08-09:
Att.% Att.% Dec Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar
Reading
Grade
Level
9 19 95% 84% 5 6 C D D C
Math
PSSA
2008
Literacy
PSSA
2008
8 Proficient Basic
B
C
12
48
13
69
93% 89% 7
73% 43% 10
8
10
D
F
C
F
F
F
D
D
6.5
5.5
Below
Basic
Below
Basic
Basic
Below
Basic

• Pre-K and Elementary Grades-Core academic competencies and socialized into the norms of schooling in a joyful manner
• Middle Grades-Intermediate academic skills (reading comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie
• High School-Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra help for students with below grade level skills

• Understand that chronic absenteeism (missing a month or more of school) is much more widespread, particularly in high poverty communities, then is commonly recognized and that like bacteria in hospitals creates havoc
• Organize comprehensive efforts built around knowledge that from the middle grades on student absenteeism driven by combination of student choice, school factors driving students away, and out of school factors pulling them away
• Create programing that compels students to come to school-e.g. most engaged middle grades students often found in cognitively rich activities which combine teamwork with performance (Robotics, debate, drama, chess etc.)
• Build an attendance problem solving capacity into schools and districts extend it via a network of relationships with wrap around service providers

• Model and teach resiliency and selfmanagement/organization skills
• Model and teach staying out of trouble skills
• Build Success Scripts in student’s heads (effort leads to success), work to undermine Failure
Scripts (life is capricious, withholding effort keeps you psychologically safe)

• Provide course coaching-assistance, support, and on occasion even advocacy which enables students to succeed in their courses-including monitoring assignment completion, and preparation for tests and quizzes, and help with catching up when absent
• Make sure tutoring efforts are linked tightly with needs and expectations of student’s courses (don’t work on fractions if Friday’s test is on probability)
• For high school students, provide opportunity for rapid credit recovery

Need to Build and Provide Transitional Support from High School to College and Career
• All students need a clear pathway from college to post-secondary schooling and training
• Many students will need additional supports - both academic and social - to successfully make the transition
• Currently no one owns the space between students meeting HS graduation requirements and starting college and career training. Do not really have a way to fund this-falls between cracks of public school system and state university system

Designing Schools to Meet High Educational Challenges
Providing the Right Support to the Right Student at the Right Time at the Scale and Intensity Required
Intensive One on One Supports:
 Driven by needs assessment
 Case managed
 Professionally provided when whole school and moderate intensity supports are not sufficient
Extra-Supports Provided:
 At first sign of student need
 To all students who need it (no triage)
 Diagnostic tools insure it’s the right support (e.g. cognitive or socio-emotional)
 Moderate intensity but if needed continuously available
Whole School is Organized and Supported to Enable:
 Effective instruction (including teacher professional development connected to the early warning indicators)
 Safe and positive learning climate
 High student engagement (Attend, Behave, Try Hard)
 Collective efficacy and all graduate mission among staff

The Diplomas Now Model
Instructional Supports
• Double dose math & English
• Extra help labs
• Common college preparatory or high school readiness curricula
Organizational Supports
• Inter-disciplinary and subject focused common planning time
• Bi-weekly EWI meetings
• On-site school transformation facilitator
Professional Development
Supports
• Job-embedded coaching - Math and
English instructional coaches
• Professional learning community
• Professional development linked to grade/subject specific instructional practice
Teacher Team
(4 teachers)
75-90 students
Multi Tiered Response to Intervention Model
• 10 to 15 City Year AmeriCorps members: whole school and targeted academic and socio-emotional supports
• Communities In Schools on-site coordinator: case managed supports for highest need students
Student Supports
Interventions to address early warning indicators of
• A ttendance
• B ehavior
• C ourse Performance
Data Supports
• Easy access to student data on the
Early Warning Indicators
• Benchmarks tied to national and state standards
• On-site facilitator to leverage EWI data
• Whole school attendance, positive behavior, collegegoing culture
• Strengthening student resiliency

Diplomas Now Sample Results:
Philadelphia Middle Schools
Diplomas Now partnered with three Philadelphia high poverty middle schools in 2009-
2010. These schools average 615 students, 84% of whom are eligible to receive free or reduced price lunch. Below are the aggregate results for all three schools from the
2009-10 school year.
Attendance Behavior Course Performance
# of Students with less than 80% Attendance
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
June 2009
55%
Reduction
June 2010
100
80
60
40
20
0
# of Students with 3 or more negative behavior marks
52%
Reduction
June 2009 June 2010
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
# of Students receiving an F in Math or English
82%
Reduction
Math
English
78%
Reduction
June 2009 June 2010

• Schools and communities need to measure and act on chronic absenteeism-the number of students who miss a month or more of school (also measure those who miss a week or less).
• Schools and communities need positive behavior support programs and alternatives to suspensions and may need to re-examine their disciplinary policies
• Schools and communities need effective second chance and credit recovery programs which hold students accountable but provide a reason for them to keep trying

• We spend large amounts on youth recovery efforts with low odds of success-juvenile justice etc.
• We need to find ways to pool and shift youth development dollars so that more funding is available for proven prevention strategies
• We also need to view supporting early warning systems-including teacher time and community supports-as a high value Title 1 investment
• Implementing an Early Warning System should be a required and funded component of school turnaround

• Segmentation Study- How many students dropout each year, how far are they from graduation, how old are they?
• Cohort/Early Warning Indicator (EWI) Study –How early and with what indicators can potential dropouts be identified?
• Distribution of Students with EWI-In which middle and high schools are students with early warning indicators concentrated, which schools do most dropouts attend?
• Success in Post-Secondary-What percent of students from each high school graduate from college?

• To achieve a 90% graduation rate for the Class of 2020, we need clear goals along the way:
– By 2012-13 , substantially increase number of students reading
on grade level by 4 rate communities th grade; chronic absenteeism significantly reduced; needs assessment conducted for all low graduation
– By 2014-15 , every low graduation state & school district has
early warning & intervention system; a non-profit success
mentor for every 15-20 off-track students
– By 2016 , all low graduation rate high schools in process of being
transformed or replaced; compulsory school age increased to
18 in all states; clear pathways to college and career for all
(including dropouts)

• We know why students dropout, which schools they dropout from and what the warning signs are
• Effective interventions and examples of substantial improvement exist, even in cities once viewed as unreformable and states viewed as too poor
• We are left with a giant engineering challenge of getting the right supports, to the right students, at the right time, at the scale and intensity required
• America is good at engineering challenges

• Visit the Everyone Graduates Center website at www.every1graduates.org
• E-mail Robert Balfanz at rbalfanz@jhu.edu
and Joanna Fox at jfox@jhu.edu