CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING
CLIMATE SERVICES FOR THE MIDWEST
Eugene S. Takle
Iowa State University
gstakle@iastate.edu
Midwest Weather Working Group
Indianapolis, IN
7 October 2009
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 31
1988: 26
2009 so far: 1
Des Moines Airport Data
1983:
13
1988:
10
2009 so far: 0
Des Moines Airport Data
1983:
13
1988:
10
2009 so far: 0
Des Moines Airport Data
1983:
13
1988:
10
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
2009 so far: 0
Ames Data
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
Cedar Rapids Data
“One of the clearest
trends in the United
States observational
record is an increasing
frequency and intensity
of heavy precipitation
events… Over the last
century there was a 50%
increase in the
frequency of days with
precipitation over 101.6
mm (four inches) in the
upper midwestern U.S.;
this trend is statistically
significant “
Cedar Rapids Data
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
December-JanuaryFebruary
Temperature
Change
4.0
3.5
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
June-July-August
Temperature
Change
2.5
3.0
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
0.1
December-JanuaryFebruary
Precipitation Change
0.0
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
June-July-August
Precipitation Change
0.0
-0.1
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Change in Annual Cloud Cover
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Annual Cloud Cover
-1.0
-1.5
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
-0.3
0.0
0.3
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Evaporation
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Evaporation
0.2
0.1
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment
Report, 2007
Change in Soil Moisture
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Soil Moisture
0
-5
A1B Emission
Scenario
2080-2099 minus
1980-1999
Source: IPCC 4th
Assessment Report, 2007
PROJECTED CHANGES* FOR THE
CLIMATE OF THE MIDWEST
TEMPERATURE







Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short
term but more in long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
winter (high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports
PROJECTED CHANGES* FOR THE
CLIMATE OF THE MIDWEST
PRECIPITATION








More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the
first half of the year (wetter springs, drier falls) (high)
More water-logging of soils in spring (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
 More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
 Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
 Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but
decreases in the long run (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports
PROJECTED CHANGES* FOR THE
CLIMATE OF THE MIDWEST
OTHER








Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages are shortened (high)
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric
CO2 (high)
Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to
herbicides (high)
Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
CLIMATE SERVICES (PROPOSED)
Waxman-Markey Bill
 Midwest activities relating to a “national
climate service”
 Question for Midwest Weather Working Group

WAXMAN-MARKEY BILL:
AMERICAN CLEAN ENERGY AND SECURITY ACT OF 2009






TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY
TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY
TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION
TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY
ECONOMY
TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION
REDUCTION PROGRAM
TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS
STANDARDS
WAXMAN-MARKEY BILL:

TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY
ECONOMY

Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change PART 1—DOMESTIC
ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change
Adaptation Program
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.
 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES


NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE
MIDWEST ACTIVITIES RELATING TO CLIMATE
SERVICES



Midwest regional office of the National Weather
Service has been exploring climate needs assessment
for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)
Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008)
Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting for
Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 –
Champaign/Urbana, IL

Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene Takle) on
agriculture needs assessment

Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions
CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR RISK DECISIONS




Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and
when do you need it?”
Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”
When (month) are decisions made?
What is the lead time related to that decision?






2 hours (weather forecast)
2 days (weather forecast)
2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation)
2 months (ensemble climate simulation)
6 months (ensemble climate simulation)
2 years (ensemble climate simulation)
QUESTION FOR MWWG



What decision tools that you currently use can be
driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil
variables?
When (month) are these decisions made?
What lead time is needed for these weather
conditions?