Is a Sino-Vietnamese war imminent?
Revisiting Vietnamese nationalism
Tuong Vu
University of Oregon
Nature of Vietnamese nationalism
• Earlier view: Ancient animosity toward China
• New scholarship:
– Traditional Sino-Annamese relations mostly
peaceful
– Annamese elites proud of being part of Sinic
civilization
– Struggle for local autonomy/independence not
understood in ethnic or national terms
Nationalism & communism
• Modern Viet national consciousness emerged
in 1900s
• Viet communists = patriots who identified
national interests with working class interests
– Successfully mobilized popular nationalism
– Worshipped Mao in the 1950s but accused China
of chauvinism in the 1970s
– War with China 1979-88
Back into China’s fold
• New leadership (1986) embraced economic
reform but remained loyal to socialism
• 6/1989: asked Gorbachev to convene
conference to save socialist camp
• 9/1990: traveled secretly to Chengdu to
propose ideological alliance with China to save
socialism
– China: “chauvinist yet socialist, better than
imperialist US”
Foreign Policy 1991-2007
• Officially: “friends of all nations”
• Reality: closest to China
• Deep suspicion of US and fear of US invasion
Imagined US Invasion
• “[In the case of war,] it is certain that the enemy would attack
us first from the air on a large scale, with guided missiles and
advanced aircrafts armed with smart bombs. Unlike bombings
of the North [during the Vietnam War], the enemy would not
increase the intensity of the bombing gradually but would …
strike at all targets at once—first at air defense system,
airports… then at economic and political targets all over the
country, leading to economic paralysis and political instability.
Taking advantage of this situation, domestic counterrevolutionary forces would launch an uprising and seize our
local governments in strategic locations. The enemy could
then deploy rapid reactionary forces to help them establish a
government and a base, then call for international support to
overthrow our regime.” (JPD, 2002)
Official narrative about the nation
• Nation possesses unique and exceptional
qualities
• Nation has no choice but socialism, no future
without the Party
• China is long-time comrade vs. US still plotting
against Vietnam
New nationalist movement
• Participants: Intellectuals, retired officials,
urban youth, farmers robbed of land, religious
groups
• Demands: government take strong actions to
defend territory, allow peaceful protests &
freedom of speech, tackle official corruption
and land grabbing
Debunking myths in
new nationalist
discourse
“After at least two thousand years of existence … Vietnam is still
one of the poorest and most backward country in the world. But
…that’s not as frightening to me [as the fact that our country]
has never been anything but poor and backward. It was like that
when I was born. It was like that when my parents,
grandparents, and great-grandparents were born… Greece is
now the poorest country in Europe, but that’s not always the
case. Russia is now beset with problems, but that’s not always
the case either. Only Vietnam…” (Pham Thi Hoai)
Rescue nation from Party’s grip
[The Party] drew a battle line for an ideological war
within the body of the Vietnamese nation;
sacrificed Vietnamese lives in that war; yielded
ancestors’ sacred territories to Chinese communists
to maintain power… The history of the VCP is a
history in which enormous interests of the
Vietnamese nation were sacrificed for the sake of
the Party’s own, narrow interests (Col. Pham Dinh
Trong)
Hanoi, 12/2007
Ho Chi Minh City, 03/2008
Hanoi, July
2011
Hanoi’s politics of coping
• Top leaders held different views and slow to
reassess situation
• Two broad, cross-cutting factions:
– loyalist/pro-China: Party, propaganda, security,
military?
– pragmatic/rent-seeking: state, provincial leaders,
SOE managers
Hanoi’s policies since 2005
• Overriding goal: stability & status quo, not to
wreck relations with China
• Appease China on basis of shared ideology &
interests
• Warm up to US, Japan, Russia, India
• Increase defense spending
• Suppress anti-China protests
Is war imminent?
• The good news: No, not war any time soon
• The bad news (for some Vietnamese):
Vietnam acquiesces in China’s expansion of
control over South China Sea
• The risks for Hanoi:
– China’s excessive use of force
– Protests will continue & may destabilize the
regime