The Role Of
Human Bias
In Our
Analysis
And
Decision-Making
Accuracy
圖資三 張雅婷
圖資三 鄭文音
Cognitive Bias
Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias
Confirmation bias, Congruence bias
Contrast effect, Denomination effect
Distinction bias , Endowment effect
Experimenter's or Expectation bias
Illusion of control , Impact bias
Information bias, Irrational escalation
Cognitive Bias
Base rate fallacy, Choice-supportive bias
Confirmation bias, Congruence bias
Groupthink
Contrast effect, Denomination effect
Distinction bias , Endowment effect
Experimenter's
or
Expectation
bias
Blindspots
Illusion of control , Impact bias
Information bias, Irrational escalation
Groupthink
Cause of Groupthink
A desire to avoid being seen as foolish
A desire to avoid embarrassing or angering
other members of the group
A culture that mutes risk-taking
Challenger
Any suggestion that would lead to a delay was rejected.
All member felt obligated to live up to the group “norms”
Employees conducted private conversation are under
high stress and concerned about losing future
Other tragic result
Attack on Pearl Harbor
Korean War
Vietnam War
Invasion of Iraq
“I’m not interested
in groupthink!”
Blindspots
Types of Blindspots
Unchallenged assumptions
Corporate myths
Corporate taboos
Top 3 Tech Howlers
The iPod will never take off.
There is no reason for any individual
to have a computer in his home.
Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners
will probably be a reality within ten
years.
Top 3 Tech Howlers
The iPod will never take off.
There is no reason for any individual
to have a computer in his home.
Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners
will probably be a reality within ten
years.
Ken Olsen
The CEO and founder of DEC
Have strong opinions about PC
Corporate myth
1.
Call in external resources or outside experts to review
your work
2.
Have someone you trust review your work
3.
Keep an open mind
Question everything
4. Think objectively by
placing yourself in the
position of an outsider
5.
Get in the habit of
questioning all assumptions
6.
Play devil’s advocate if necessary.
7.
Have two teams work on the same request
8.
Do not hold a personal attachment or assign
over-important to your own recommendation
Rotate roles and responsibilities within
your competitive intelligence team
As a manager
try and hold your opinions to yourself
T.HANKS