ECB-RESTRICTED
FINAL
Aurel Schubert
Director-General Statistics, ECB
ESCB statistics and
its main challenges
ahead
Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on Statistics
Skopje, 4 October 2013
Rubric
ECB-RESTRICTED
FINAL
Outline
1
Increased policy relevance of statistics
2
Production of ESCB Statistics
3
Main challenges ahead
+
Challenges in European statistics production
+
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs
+
Improving communication of statistics
* The views expressed are those of the author and do not
necessarily reflect the position of the ECB.
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Increased
policy relevance of statistics
ESCB statistics are vital for:
• ECB’s monetary policy
• Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic risk
and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems oversight, …)
• Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
• Statistical support to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)
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Increased
policy relevance of statistics
 ESCB statistics are also key to EU policy-makers’ decisions
• The EU reforms following the crisis
Financial
supervisory
policies
•
•
Macroeconomic
policies
Fiscal
policies
Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools)
and to enforce policy compliance
 ESCB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps
 ESCB statistics are also a public good
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1
Increased policy relevance of statistics
2
Production of ESCB Statistics
3
Main challenges ahead
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Evidence-based decision making is supported by
 The ESCB’s own produced European statistics
Monetary
and financial
statistics
External
statistics
Quarterly
euro area
accounts
Securities
statistics
Other
statistics
 The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national
statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and shortterm business statistics)
 … and also data from commercial data providers
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Rubric features of ESCB statistics
Main
 Main focus on euro area statistics, but also on national
contributions, which need to be harmonised and comparable
• to compile homogenous euro area aggregates which in many cases
are not the simple sum of national statistics
• to ensure cross-country comparability and to assess economic
convergence
 Conforming to international standards wherever possible
 European and international cooperation is essential
(in particular with Eurostat, BIS, IMF, OECD, UN)
• active and influential ECB role on on-going developments
(to limit subsequent efforts)
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Main features of ESCB statistics
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 ECB statistical competences laid down in ECB Statute annexed to the EU Treaty
 ECB legal acts (Regulations and Guidelines) address a wide range of statistics
 ECB and the NCBs work as a team through the ESCB Statistics Committee (STC)
• Develops new statistics and statistical methods and prepares legal acts for
adoption by the ECB Governing Council
• Essential role of National Central Banks, which collect (national) data on the
basis of ECB legal acts and submit harmonised datasets to the ECB
• ECB checks data quality, aggregates and consolidates for the euro area
 Encompassing quality architecture
• Public Commitment for European Statistics
• ECB Statistics Quality Framework
• Quality reporting
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Rubric framework for European statistics
Legal
Treaty
Article 338 TFEU
Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute
of the EU
European Statistical System
Regulation 223/09
ECB collecting statistics
Regulation 2533/98
Eurosystem
EP and Council Regulations
addressed to Member States
HICP
ECB Regulations
addressed to reporting agents
Investment
Funds
Shortterm
Statistics
ESA 95
transmission
programme
…
…
Balance
sheet
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ECB
Guidelines
NCBs
BOP
Insurance Corp.
& Pension Funds
MUFA
Financial Vehicle
MFI
Corporations
GFS
Interest
Securities
rates
Holdings
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Statistical
cooperation in the EU
European System of
Central Banks
(ESCB)/Eurosystem
m
EU National
Central Banks
Committee on Monetary, Financial
and Balance of Payments Statistics
+ new: European Statistical Forum
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
ECB
Eurosystem
Responsibility
EU National
Statistical
Institutes
Responsibility
• Monetary and financial statistics
• Quarterly financial accounts
• International reserves
• Financial stability statistics
European
Statistical System
(ESS)
• General economic statistics
• All non-economic statistics
Shared responsibility
• B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics
• European accounts by sector
• Statistical infrastructure
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Statistical
cooperation in the ESCB
WG on
Euro Area
Accounts
WG on
Statistical
Information
Management
WG on
Securities
Statistics
WG on
External
Statistics
ESCB
Statistics
Committee
(STC)
WG on
Monetary
and
Financial
Statistics
WG on
Government
Finance
Statistics
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WG on
General
Economic
Statistics
Ad-hoc
Task
Forces
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Rubric
1
Increased policy relevance of statistics
2
Production of ESCB Statistics
3
Main challenges ahead
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Challenges in European statistics production
Facing
constraints
Increasing
demands
More detailed data
•
Country data
•
Micro-databases
•
Distributional data
•
•
•
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Reporting burden
Confidentiality
Compiler’s
resources
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The ECB response
New statistics on
Development micro-datasets
•
Investment funds (2009)
•
Centralised Securities Database
•
Financial Vehicle Corporations
engaged in securitisation (2011)
•
Securities Holding Statistics
•
•
Credit and Credit risk dataset
Insurance Corporations and
Pension Funds (2011)
•
Register of Financial Institutions
•
Consolidated banking data
•
Household and corporate surveys
Better macro-ec. statistics
Other datasets
•
Further development euro area
accounts
•
BIS banking statistics
•
Implementation new manuals
(SNA2010-ESA2010, BPM6)
•
Financial markets statistics
•
Ad-hoc surveys
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New statistics- better information on all financial
sectors
Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics
• New statistics on assets and liabilities euro area Investment Funds
Investment Funds
Financial Vehicle
Corporations
• Regular compilation statistics euro area Financial Vehicle
Corporations engaged in securitisation transactions and MFI
securitisation
• New statistics euro area Insurance Corporations & Pension Funds
Insurance
Corporations &
Pension Funds
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New statistics - better information on all financial
sectors
Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics
• Further advancing timeliness
Timeliness
Breakdowns
• Providing more breakdowns of banks’ balance sheet, e.g.
loans by NACE, and interest rates
• New data on credit lines granted by banks
Credit lines
• Compilation harmonised financial statistics on a consolidated
basis
Compilation
• Working with supervisors in a better alignment of supervisory
and statistical concepts and data
Alignment
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New statistics - Better information on financial
markets
Other monetary / financial statistics in
demand
1. Financial markets statistics
2. Probability density functions
3. Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics
4. Short Term European Paper market statistics
5. Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations,
households, or credit institutions
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Developments of micro-datasets
Statistics and Micro-databases
1
Register of Financial institutions and groups composition
2
3
Granular Credit and Credit Risk Dataset
4
Sectorial/individual Issuance and Holdings of
Securities
5
6
Consolidated Banking Data/National Banking Indicators
Households finance and consumption survey
SME Corporate finance
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Other datasets
Other datasets
Ad-hoc surveys
• BIS banking statistics
(consolidated and locational
by nationality)
• Occur for specific issues
• Tailored to latest
developments in financial
sector
• Banks’ disclosures
• Commercial data from
Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc.
• Especially while EU
Supervisory frameworks are
still in the making
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Enhancements to macroeconomic statistics
1. Enhancing integrated quarterly financial and non-financial
accounts euro area:
• Advance timeliness
• Improve consistency
• Enhance completeness, coverage and length
2. Consolidated lending exposures credit institutions vis-àvis counterparts
3. Implementation of new international statistical standards
(SNA2008-ESA2010, BPM6)
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Rubric
1
Increased policy relevance of statistics
2
Production of ESCB Statistics
3
Main challenges ahead
*
Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs
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Single
Rubric Supervisory Mechanism data needs
Elements of the Single Supervisory Mechanism
• ECB is the competent supervisory authority for all banks in the
euro area in close cooperation with SSM members
• Non-euro area countries can – voluntarily – join the SSM
• ECB to conduct direct supervision of ca. 130-140 banking groups
(“significant banks”), representing around 80% of the banking
sectors’ total assets in the euro area
• The other, “less significant” banks will be directly supervised locally
• Balance sheet review before the ECB takes over the SSM
(conducted together with national supervisory authorities)
• Need for a financial backstop (national budgets and where needed
the ESM)
• Accurate, timely and high quality data will be key for the
performance of these tasks
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Single
Rubric Supervisory Mechanism data needs
1
EBA’s ITS and Pillar 2 data
2
MFI Statistics
3
Central Credit Registers
4
Ad-hoc data collections
5
Other national data
6
Financial markets data
SSM Data
requirements
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Single
Rubric Supervisory Mechanism data needs
SSM data framework: preparatory work
Work in progress
Next planned steps ahead
• Pilot supervisory data
• Further work on the SUBA project
• Supervisory Banking (SUBA) Data
System
• Security Holdings Statistics (SHS)
• Assessment of individual MFI data
(balance sheet and interest rates) for
supervisory use
• Preparing an ECB decision for the
transmission of central credit registers
(CCR) data in the short run
• Proof of ability of RIAD to meet
mapping requirements
• Preparation of the project long-run
solution for AnaCredit dataset
• Financial Market Statistics
• Register of institutions (RIAD)
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Rubric
1
Increased policy relevance of statistics
2
Production of ESCB Statistics
3
Main challenges ahead
*
Improving communication of statistics
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Improving
communication of statistics
 Fostering cooperation and information-sharing, transparency
in methodology
 Communicating statistics to professional users, policy makers
and the general public
 Communication of central bank statistics is an important
aspect of accountability and credibility
(“evidence based policy making”) and for building trust
• Reporting agents as well as the public at large need to
understand, use, re-use the results of data collections
• Statistics (financial sector) is a core product of central banking
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Evidence
based policy making
ESRB Risk Dashboard
First publication 20 September 2012
Objectives
Risk assessment
Input to further systemic risk analysis
Communication tool
Content:
45 indicators and 6 risk typologies
Macro risk
Credit risk
Market risk
Liquidity and funding
Interlinkages
Profitability & Solvency
• Allows synthetic view of the situation for deeper analysis
• Cannot replace expert judgement, but complements it
• See: www.esrb.europa.eu
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Evidence
based policy making
Statistics for EU macro-economic surveillance
Scoreboard
1. MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012
2. 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
3. Data sources are Eurostat and ECB
4. Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances
(“Alert mechanism””)
5. On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators
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Evidence
based policy making
Global level
Action Plan following the IMF/FSB report to the G-20 on “The
Financial Crisis and Information Gaps”
 Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) website:
http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/
 20 Recommendations being developed and implemented
 Key role of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and
Financial Statistics (chaired by the IMF and comprising the
BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, WB and the UN)
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How to access ECB statistics?
• ECB website
• Press releases
• Interactive graphics
• Publications
• Statistical Data Warehouse
http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu
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Thank you
for your attention!!!
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Annex
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Rubric ESCB statistics published by ECB
Core
1/2
 Monetary & financial statistics
• Monetary aggregates and counterparts
• Balance sheet statistics of Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs),
Investment Funds (IFs), Financial Vehicle Corporations (FVC) as well as
Insurance Corporations (IC) and Pension Funds (PF)
• Statistics on average interest rates (deposits from / loans to households
for consumption or housing; deposits from / loans to firms)
• Securities issues statistics, yield curves, financial markets price and
volume statistics, payments and securities settlement statistics
• Financial stability statistics and indicators – also to support the ESRB,
Financial integration indicators, STEP Market statistics
 External statistics
• Balance of payments, international investment position (including
international reserves), effective exchange rates, international role of the
euro
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Rubric ESCB statistics published by ECB
Core
2/2
 Euro area accounts
• Integrated quarterly accounts (non-financial and financial) by institutional
sector encompassing transactions, other flows and balance sheets
 Government finance statistics
• Revenue, expenditure, deficit, debt, deficit-debt adjustment
 Surveys
• Survey on the access to finance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the
euro area
• Household Finance and Consumption Survey
 General economic statistics
• Seasonally adjusted HICP, residential property price indicator, shortterm indicators, timely labour market statistics (e.g. euro area negotiated
wages developments)
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