What in The World? Energy & Climate Change in Argentina Lucila Serra Torcuato Di Tella Foundation Global Energy & Climate Change UCLA Conference Center at Lake Arrowhead October 22-24 CONTENTS ENERGY SITUATION GHG EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIONS CONCLUSIONS 1*ENERGY SITUATION Argentina's Energy Situation In 2000 Argentina was South America's third largest energy consumer, as well as the continent's second largest emitter of carbon dioxide, resulting from the consumption of fossil fuels. During the 1990s Argentina's energy demand grew annually at an average rate of 6% In 2000, Argentina's energy profile strongly reflected the countries past decade of growth. Argentina had South America's second highest per capita energy consumption at 73.2 million Btu per person behind only Venezuela. This reflected the country's growing affluence relative to other South American countries, although it still measured only one-fifth the per capita energy consumption in the United States (351.0 million Btu). Energy consumption in Argentina has been dominated by the industrial and transport sectors, and until the country's financial collapse in 2001, was expected to continue growing rapidly. Argentina's total energy consumption in 2000 was 2.7 quadrillion Btu, or 0.7% of the world's total energy consumption. Per capita carbon emissions in Argentina also are the second highest in South America, after Venezuela. Energy Matrix Fossil fuels dominate Argentina’s energy consumption, with an energy matrix structured in the following way: Natural Gas (45%) Oil/petroleum (41%) Hydropower (6%) Nuclear (2%) Firewood (1%) Organic waste from sugar cane “Bagasse” (1%) Mineral carbon (1%) Other sources (3%). 8% of the matrix consists of renewable energy, without considering the other percentage not specified (3%), which includes energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Electric Energy Total installed power is 25.5 GW. Year 2005 - Total electric energy generation 92,176 GWh (5.8% above the accumulated energy in 2004) - Total energy demand 87,778.5 GWh 95.000 90.000 90.000 85.000 85.000 80.000 80.000 75.000 75.000 70.000 70.000 2002 2003 2004 Generation (GWh) 2005 2002 2003 2004 Demand (GWh) 2005 Electric Energy The participation per source during 2005 was: Thermal Generation 49,801.9 GWh (54.0%); Hydraulic Generation: 36,000.0 GWh (39.1%); Nuclear Generation: 6,374.1 GWh (6.9%). The export of accumulated electric energy during 2005 was of 1,800 GWh, 13.0% less than the accumulated energy during the same period in 2004. The import of electric energy in 2005 increased by 11.2% with respect to 2004, reaching almost the same level as the export. As from 2004 there has been a major increase in fuel oil consumption due to the natural gas supply crisis. 634,000 tons out of the total amount consumed that year were imported from Venezuela. Fuel oil consumption increased by 50% in 2005. There are also significant increases in the consumption of mineral carbon and, to a lesser extent, of gasoil. Territorial Distribution of the Supply NOA NEA BUENOS AIRES 12,4 % LITORAL COMAHUE 3,8% CENTRO AREA METROPOLITANA CUYO PATAGONIA 4,8% BUENOS AIRES NOA 6,6% COMAHUE NEA 4,5% AREA METROPOLITANA 41,8% PATAGONIA CENTRO 8,1% CUY0 5,8% LITORAL 12,3 % Source: Secretary of Energy Location of the Sources of the Electric Supply NOA NG NEA + LIT HYDRO GBA CENTRE CUYO NUCLEAR NG PIPELINES COMAHUE HYDRO+NG PATAGONIA HYDRO WIND NG Natural Gas 51,453 million m3 was the accumulated production of NG in 2005 (1.0% less than the accumulated production during 2004). It is the first time that natural gas production has decreased in the last 15 years. The NG volume delivered by distributors, accumulated during 2005, increased by 3.5% with respect to the same period in the previous year. Since there has been no production growth in 2005, the rise in the demand was satisfied by a greater gas import from Bolivia as compared to 2004 and a reduction in the exported volumes (mainly to Chile) as compared to the previous year. During 2005 the Residential Sector demand rose by almost 8% with respect to the previous year. Over the last 4 years, the consumption in Electric Plants has triggered the growth in natural gas demand, followed by GNC demand. The total exported gas volume in 2005 diminished by 11.1% with respect to the total exported volume in 2004. The gas volume imported from Bolivia during 2005 reached 1,720.8 million m3, 116.6% above the imported volume during 2004. The import volume in the last year represented 3.3% of the country production. Exports to Chile fell by 12.8% in 2005, mainly affecting gas pipeline Gas Andes which supplies gas to the city of Santiago. Natural gas exports to Brazil fell by almost 24% as well, which have also decreased as compared to 2002. Crude Oil The accumulated production of crude oil amounted to 38.54 million m3 in 2005 (4.7% less than the accumulated production in 2004). The accumulated export volume in 2005 was 17.0% less than the accumulated volume in 2004. The processed oil volume in 2003 reached 31.0 million m3, showing a slight decrease with respect to the processed oil in the same period in 2004 (-0,6%). Oil industry activity, measured in terms of the quantity of finished wells, keeps the level of 1200 wells a day, out of which less than 10% correspond to productive gas wells and less than 5% to non-productive wells. Exploratory activity is still very limited (between 60,000 and 90,000 meters of exploratory wells were drilled per year between 2002 and 2006, which represents less than 5% of the total drilled quantity.) Oil Reserves …are more scarce every day Años Total País 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1989 1991 1993 1995 Petróleo 1997 1999 2001 Gas Natural 2003 Liquid Fuels In 2005, the volume of fuel sales to the domestic market of gasoil, gasoline and GNC increased by 6.9% as compared to the volume of sales registered in 2004, thus keeping the upward trend. In 2005, the sale of gasoil to the domestic market was of 12.0 million m3, 7.7% more than the same period in 2004. The volume of Super Gasoline sold in the domestic market during 2005 was 13.1% higher than the volume sold in 2004 (3.2 million m3). The GNC sale accumulated up to December 2005 amounted to 3,167.8 million m3, exceeding by 3.4% the sale registered in 2004. The volume of liquid fuels exports: gasoil and gasoline accumulated up to December 2005 was 14.8% lower than the volume accumulated in 2004, thus continuing the downward trend. 2* GHG EMISSIONS GHG Emissions in Argentina Total Growth Thousands of tons of CO2 eq 1990 1994 1997 238553 267737 280415 12.23% 4.74% 2000 290843 3.72% Composition by Sector Energy 44 Industrial Processes 3 Agriculture and Livestock 49 Waste 4 46 3 47 4 46 3 46 5 • The Transport sector represents 14 % of the Total Emissions • Enteric Fermentation represents 20 % of the Total Emission • The production of cement and metals represents 80% of the industrial processes emissions 45 3 47 5 CO2 Emissions - Energy Sector Year 2000 in Miles of Ton of CO2 Sectoral Consumption and Apparent Consumption GHG Inventory – Argentina – year 2000 CO2 Emissions - Transport Sector Argentina – Year 2000 Total: 41,9 Millions of CO2e GHG Emissions -Transport Sector Argentina – year 2000 –Miles of Tons CH4 Emissions - Sub-sector Air Traffic Argentina – year 2000 3*CLIMATE CHANGE Impacts and Problems Caused By Fossil Fuels: HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS: Respiratory problems, Heatrelated deaths and illness, Spread of disease (insect-borne diseases), drought (devastating effect on food resources, drinking water supplies), ECONOMIC IMPACTS: National Security, the end of cheap oil and gas, economic whiplash, Property loss & skyrocketing insurance claims, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS: Air pollution, water pollution, loss of biodiversity. CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change: Impacts and Major Concerns in Argentina Water Shortage Due To Increasing Temperatures – Energy Problems Sea Level Rise Impact In Buenos Aires (17 Cm In The Port of Bs As) Increasing Frecuency of Extreme Weather Events & Storms Glacier Receding Climate Change: Impacts and Major Concerns in Argentina LA PLATA RIVER BASIN (Shared With 4 Other Countries): 75 % of the Precipitation Evaporates. Only about 25 % runoff to the Rivers A 4 C Warming would increase Evaporation By 30 % Agriculture Transportation Hydropower Navigation Water Supply Are Highly Vulnerable To Climate Change ! GLACIER’S RECEDING (48 out of 50) Upsala Glaciar Aerial Photography, November 1968 Satellite Image from the Landsat Satellite , May 2004 INCREASING FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY IN ANNUAL PRECIPITATIONS Buenos Aires - Precipitación Anual 2000 1800 1600 mm 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ARGENTINA IS VITAL TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE: It is a new and additional barrier to Sustainable Development Its adverse effects divert resources essential to social policies (housing, health, education and environment) Thus, it is of the country's interest to contribute to the international climate policy regime after 2012 5*ACTIONS ACTIONS MITIGATION - Policies & Programs - Regulations - UNFCCC - Kyoto Protocol – CDM ADAPTATION - Development of the National Adaptation Plan Mitigation NATIONAL PROGRAMS National Program of Biofuels (Resolution SADS 1076/01) National Program of Alternative Energies and Fuels (Disposition SADS166/01) - National Program of rational Use of Electric Energy (Resolution SE 415/04)- Goal: To give an incentive to save electric energy to generate a surplus for industrial uses. - National Program for the Rational Use of Energy – SE - Natural Gas The approach of price and rational energy use policy, PURE (Programa de Uso Racional de la Energía). LOCAL PROGRAMS - Province of Chubut - Law 4389/98 and Decree 235/99 – The Province gives a bonus of $ 0,5 for every Kw/h generated with wind energy. It demands an increasing percentage of local manufacture. Mitigation RESULTS: ENERGY MIX COMPARISON 1970 2003 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 Hidraulic Energy Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Mineral Coal Wood Bagasse Others Mitigation In the last three decades: • Hydroelectric power (50% of electricity generation) • Substitution of fuel oil for natural gas in combined cycles • Subsidies to Wind Energy • National Biofuels Law (5%) • The largest automotive fleet run with natural gas (1,100,000 vehicles) Automotive Fleet: GNC in Argentina 1984................. 1991 ................ 2000 ................ 2003 ................ Argentina 100 100.000 450.000 (6,8%) 950.000 (13,1%) RMBA Convertion into NCG (bi-fuel) converted vehicles “ 300.000 (7,6%) “ 570.000 (13,3%) “ AUTOMOVILES (Vehículos Livianos) 1.663.115 (1993-2000) 2000000 6.193437 (1959-2000) GAS DIESEL GNC 538.728 (1959-2000) 446.497 (1984-2000) 1999 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1998 The convertion of vehicles into GNC started in 1984 with the 10 years Program The program was successful because of the differences in prices between fuels, particularly between GNC and gasoline. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 CO2 Emission Reductions with NCG in Argentina Light Vehicles (Cars): For the year 2000, and as a result of the convertion of 6,8 % of the automotive fleet into NCG the CO2 emission reductions were between 0,5 – 0,9 %. Heavy Vehicles (Buses and Trucks): NCG in Argentina: Parliament is considering national bills to renew urban transportation and to convert heavy fleet into NCG. (“Plan Estratégico Productivo Nacional De Desarrollo De La Cadena De La Industria De Artefactos Móviles Propulsados A Gas”) 15 year Program.It will include NLG as an alternative for long distance transportation Mitigation - Ratified UNFCCC - 1994 - Ratified the Kyoto Protocol - 2001 - Established Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Argentina Office-1998 - Established the DNA – SADS- 2002 - Established Climate Change Office (UCC) 2003 - National Decree – Development of Argentine Carbon Fund - 2005 SECTORS FOR CDM PROJECTS Energy (Oil and gas, electricity) Energy (Transport) Industry Agriculture and Livestock Waste Forestry GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS OPPORTUNITIES Electric Energy Generation: Hydraulic, Wind Power, Geothermic and Biomass / Transport /Cogeneration Transport: Biodiesel, Railways and Underground Energy Efficiency: Annual demand of electric energy 91,000 MWh/year / 10 - 20 % possible reduction Distribution and Transport of Natural Gas Municipal Solid Wastes: 15 Landfills Forestation: 20 million hectares Waste Water Treatment Plants Cement, Steel, Aluminum, Chemistry and Agro industry Oil & Gas (CO2 sequestration and storage / Distribution and Transport of Natural Gas/Efficiency in Refineries) Agriculture and Livestock BY SECTOR BY REGION Conclusions Policy priorities in Argentina: securing energy supply for its economic growth and curbing environmental pollution, CDM offers a good instrument for realizing the ambitious domestic energy and environment goals; Transfer of Technology: Argentina embraces technology cooperation with different parties in the field of climate change and clean energy. Climate change is a top policy priority in Argentina. Its synergies with environmental protection and energy security improvement enables it to be integrated into Argentina’s overall development policy. Renewable Energies are a way to promote the sustainable development of the Nation by reducing the associated growth in GHG emissions through conservation, adoption of cleaner, more efficient, and emission-reducing technologies, and sequestration. It is important to develop wind resource and biomass (biodiesel, ethanol), to keep pace with the growth. Argentina is now recovering from an economic and social crisis, and these systems are gradually getting reactivated, generating new investment and possibilities of development of RE. It is a favorable moment for the renewable energies to take position as the driving force of a firm and sustainable development. MUCHAS GRACIAS! Lucila Serra Torcuato Di Tella Foundation lserra@itdt.edu www.itdt.edu Argentina Perito Moreno Glaciar Argentina