Elections and Direct Democracy
31 October 2011
Who decides who the party nominee will be?
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In the past, party activists made the decision at the
national convention
Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and
primaries
These contests determine how many delegates a candidate
receives.
The rules play a role in influencing what types of
candidates will win
Iowa and NH can help the Underdog
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Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an
early win in Iowa and NH.
 Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)
 Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)
 Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)
 Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)
 McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)
 Obama in 2008 (up 8 percent)
Frontloading
Incumbency Advantage
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The vast majority of congressional elections are not very
competitive (most incumbents are re-elected; 94% in
2008; 86% in 2010 which was the lowest rate since 1970)
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Results for House of Representatives
Senate elections are more competitive but reelection rates
are still very high (ie. in 2010, 84% reelected; in 2008,
83% reelected rate). Republicans defeated two incumbents
and defended all of their seats (a first) which was the
largest number of Senate gains for the GOP since 1994 .
Democrats retained majority by 53-47,
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Results for Senate
The 2010 Midterm Election
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An Historic Election?
Republicans recaptured the House for the first time since 2006
with a gain of 63 seats; prior to the election Democrats held a
258-177 majority (41 seat advantage)
Historic Comparisons
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Presidents party has lost seats in Congress for all but three of the
27 midterms beginning in the 20th Century.
Since the end of WW II, the average midterm seat loss for the
president’s party is 24 seats.
When the president’s approval rating is below 50% the average
midterm seat loss is 38 seats.
Source: Abramson et al. (2007) Change and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006
Elections
Trends in Midterm Elections
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The 2010 election represents the largest loss since 1948.
Voter turnout
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The 2010 midterm election experienced the highest turnout for a
midterm election in the past 30 years. An estimated 41.5 percent
of those eligible to vote participated, which appears to have
topped the 41.1 percent in the 1994 midterm elections – another
good year for Republicans.
Nevertheless, turnout is substantially lower than presidential
elections; in 2008, 61.6 percent of those eligible to vote did so.
Source: Michael McDonald, George Mason University
Age and Turnout
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Exit polls showed that voters 18-29 made up 11% of the
electorate; down from 18% in 2008.
In comparison, people age 65 and older increased from 19% in
2006 to 23% in 2010.
Voters younger than 30 still gave Democrats a boost. Every other
age group favoured the GOP, including a whopping 18-point
advantage for Republicans among voters older than 65.
How Citizens Voted for U.S. House
Source: CNN Exit Polls
How do people decide who to vote for? Two Models
of Voting Behaviour
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Voters as forward thinkers (Prospective Model)
 Party identification
 Candidate characteristics
 Issue positions
Voters looking back (Retrospective Model)
 Party identification
 Evaluation of the past
Note that both models agree that partisanship plays a central role
Functions of Party Identification
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Helps one organise and categorise information
Perceptual Screen
 Helps one make value judgments. Is Barack Obama more
competent than George Bush? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?
Influence Political Behavior
 Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in
politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and
more likely to vote.
 party id is the most important determinant of the way people
vote
Measuring Party Identification
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“Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a
Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?”
Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then
asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat)
or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat).
Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no
preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of
yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”
Trends in Partisanship (1952-2008)
Influence of Party Id
Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign
Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning:
Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”
Perception of Gore’s Honesty
Requirements for Issue Voting
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Aware of the issue
Care about the issue
Perceive difference between the candidates
Correct about the difference
Direct Democracy as an Alternative
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Rather than voting for representatives, citizens are able to draft
and vote directly on policy
Direct democracy allows citizens to be their own “legislators”
Direct democracy also allows citizens to set the policy agenda
Circumvent a non-responsive legislature
Recall the reasoning for the U.S. Constitutional
Framework…
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America is not so much a democracy as it is a republic.
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The whole idea of the Constitution was to limit majority rule, to
prevent tyranny of the majority. This is why citizens do not
make laws directly, but elect representatives to do so, and
supra-majorities or checks and balances are required in every
step of legislation and execution.
Nevertheless, the Constitution reserves power to the states to
determine their own laws. Many states allow voters to make laws
directly.
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Devices of Direct Democracy
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The Referendum
 Government places a question before the voters
The Initiative
 Allows voters (or some organized group) to define the issue or
question to be voted on
The Recall
 Allows voters to undo elections by recalling elected officials
The Referendum
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France and the Netherlands recently voted on the European
Constitution (2005)
Constitution of Iraq (2005)
Australian Republic (1999)
Canada “Charlottetown Accord” (1992)—
 divisions of powers between federal and provinces
Ireland (1995) held a referendum to decide whether divorce
should be legal
The Initiative—Some Examples
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Taxes
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Medicinal marijuana
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California’s Prop 315 (1996); Proposition 1 (Michigan 2008); Measure 67
(Oregon, 1998)
New proposals in California would legalise, tax and regulate the drug in what
would be the first such law in the United States. Tax officials estimate that
legislation could bring $1.4 billion a year.
Ban same-sex marriage
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Prop 13 (California, 1978)
11 states (2004); 3 states (2008)
Deny illegal immigrants social services, health care, and public education
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Prop 187 (California, 1994)
The Recall
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Typically used for local offices
Exception-California Governor (October 7, 2003)
Signatures
Results
Where Direct Democracy is used
Examples of Ballot Measures
California (2010)
Vote on Legalizing Marijuana (CA)
Source: CNN Exit Polls
Advantages
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Allows citizens to circumvent unresponsive legislatures (example
of term limits and other reforms)
Allows citizens to remove unpopular representatives (example of
Gray Davis)
Empowers voters
Criticisms of Direct Democracy
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Original intent of the framers was for a republican form of
government
Too much money and “special interest” influence
Voters are incompetent
Concern about minority rights
Reasons Californians Support Direct
Democracy
Gets attention of politicians
Makes voters aware of issues
Forces issues onto the agenda
Allows for policy change
Allows direct participation
Gives people a voice
0
5
10
Source: Table 7.1, p. 135 Donovan and Bowler
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Voter Evaluations of Representative
versus Direct Democracy
Which do you feel can be trusted more often to dow
hwat is right on important government issues?
Which do you feel is more influenced by special
interest groups?
Which do you feel is better suited to decide upon
large scale government programs and projects
Which do you feel gives more thorough review to
each particular aspect of a proposed law?
Which do you feel is better suited to decide upon
highly technical or legal policy matters?
Who do you feel generally enacts more coherent and
wel-thought-out government policies?
0
Elected Representatives
10
20
30
Voting Public
Source: Table 7.2, p. 136 Donovan and Bowler
40
50
Other
60
70