HYDROPOWER:
A Comparative Energy Review
J. Mark Robinson
JMR Energy Infra, LLC
NWHA February 23, 2011
Wood to Coal to Oil to ?
1945
1890
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Existing Net Summer Capacity by
Energy Source
400
Thousand MWs
Coal
300
Natural Gas
Nuclear
200
Conventional
Hydropower
100
Renewables
0
Source: EIA, 1/4/2011
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Electric Generation Growth
2008 to 2035
500
GWs
400
300
200
2008
2035
100
0
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Source: EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook
No New Nuclear Generation Sites
1997 - 2008 1,000 Net MW
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Nuclear
Time and Money
• The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to
complete.
• The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant
ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW.
• The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of
spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year
2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no
long term storage.
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New Coal Fired Generation
1997 – 2008
0 Net MW
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Coal
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)
• S is the problem.
• CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to
humans in a concentration of 10-11%.
• To sequestrate CO2
– Many miles of pipe are needed.
• Up to 23,000 miles of CO2 pipeline will be
needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL)
– Permanent, non-cycling storage sites must be
found.
• Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent
domain
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New Non-Hydro Renewable Generation
1997 – 2008 23,000 Net MW
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Wind and Solar Energy
Land Use and Transmission
• Land use: 500 MW facility
– Wind: 30,000 acres
– Solar: 3,500 acres
• DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW
• 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn
• Renewable sources are not near the market
• Current regulatory regimes for siting electric
transmission are poor
• S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009
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Between 2000 and 2009 nine High Voltage
(≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines were built
682 miles
Transmission Projects
765 kV
345 kV
DC
Sources: FERC
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New Natural Gas Fired Generation
1997 – 2008 221,000 Net MW
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NorthernStar
(1,300)
Tuscarora
(96)
1. Islander East (285)
2. Iroquois (100,200)
3. Columbia (135)
4. Transcontinental (130,142)
5. Transcontinental (100)
6. Maritimes (418)
7. Tennessee (500)
8. Tennessee (136)
9. Texas Eastern (900)
10. Algonquin (325)
11. CIG (85,133,105)
12. TransColorado (250)
13. WIC (120,675,350,556)
14. Entrega (1,500)
15. Rockies Express West (1,800)
WBI
(80)
Northwest
(191)
14
8
North
Baja
(500,
2,700)
12
7
15
13
El Paso (502)
8
9
3
Columbia (172)
Cheyenne
Rockies Express
Plains (560) East (1,800)
11
Southern Trails (120)
Transwestern (500)
Trunkline (510)
Center Point (1,237, 280)
Natural (200)
Port Arthur (3,000)
Golden Pass
(2,500)
East Tennessee (170)
2
1
East Tennessee (510)
Southern (336,330)
Florida Gas (270)
Gulfstream
(1,130, 155)
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10
5
4
Trailblazer
(324)
6
Pending Hydropower Projects
Sept 2, 2010 168 MW
29 Projects
Source: FERC
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Electric Generation Capital Costs
7000
6000
Dollars
5000
2010 $/kW
4000
3000
2011 $/kW
2000
1000
0
Source: EIA, 2010
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Six Principles
of Energy Infrastructure Siting
Six Principles
1) Pre-filing
2) Exclusive Authority
Hydropower
x
?
3) Disciplined Schedule
4) One Federal Record
Natural Gas
Pipelines
x
x
x
x
x
5) Expeditious Judicial Review
6) Eminent Domain
Renewables/
Transmission
x
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x
Cost of FERC Hydro Application
Dollars in millions
35
30
y = 25936x + 2E+06
R² = 0.6693
25
20
15
n=60
10
5
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MWs
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Source: FERC
Integrated Licensing Process
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Evolved
Integrated Licensing Process
PAD
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Developing a Hydropower
Siting Culture
• Economic Interdependence
• Appreciation of the time scale for Major
Energy Infrastructure
• Intergenerational Responsibility
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Hydropower’s Future
• Competition without subsidies - costs
• Legislative/Regulatory Environment
• Development Culture
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