Please write your answers on this exam paper. Name________________ Student ID ________________ Economics 2000 Final Exam December 21, 2012 Write all answers on this exam paper. Do not turn in the beige exam books. 50 points total. Multiple Choice (1/2 point each) 1. If a country’s exchange rate is overvalued (relative to PPP) a. Its cost of living is relatively expensive and its exchange rate is greater than its PPP conversion factor. b. Its cost of living is relatively expensive and its exchange rate is lower than its PPP conversion factor. c. Its cost of living is relatively cheap and its exchange rate is greater than its PPP conversion factor. d. Its cost of living is relatively cheap and its exchange rate is lower than its PPP conversion factor. ______B _______ 2. Which of the following is not one of the key principals of a good taxation scheme a. b. c. d. Diagonal Equity Vertical Equity Horizontal Equity All are key principals. ______A______ 3. “Green GDP “ is a. b. c. d. GDP plus environmental degradation costs GDP minus environmental degradation costs. GDP plus extraction of sub-soil assets GDP minus extraction of sub-soil assets ______B______ 1 4. Review the following table for Thailand. Using this data, we can estimate that Thailand Income share held by highest 20% Income share held by fourth 20% Income share held by third 20% Income share held by second 20% Income share held by lowest 20% 2004 49.3 20.7 14.1 9.73 6.18 a. The GINI coefficient is above 100 and median income per capita is less than half of average income per capita. b. The GINI coefficient is above 100 and median income per capita is more than half of average income per capita. c. The GINI coefficient is below 100 and median income per capita is less than half of average income per capita. d. The GINI coefficient is below 100 and median income per capita is more than half of average income per capita. ________D____ 5. Consider the country of Japan which has experienced a long period of deflation. We can say that on average if the Fisher effect applies: a. the inflation adjusted interest rate, r, is higher than the nominal interest rate i; and, the value growth rate 1 gV is larger than the volume growth rate 1 g Q . b. the inflation adjusted interest rate, r, is higher than the nominal interest rate i; and, the value growth rate 1 gV is smaller than the volume growth rate 1 g Q . c. the inflation adjusted interest rate, r, is lower than the nominal interest rate i; and, the value growth rate 1 gV is larger than the volume growth rate 1 g Q . d. the inflation adjusted interest rate, r, is lower than the nominal interest rate i; and, the value growth rate 1 gV is smaller than the volume growth rate 1 g Q . _______B_____ 6. Which of the following is not a key element of the “Washington Consensus” program a. Trade Liberalization b. Liberalization of Inward Foreign Direct Investment. c. Import Substitution d. Easing barriers to entry and exit. ___C_________ 2 Please write your answers on this exam paper. Short Answer 7. (2 points) Name one advantage and one disadvantage for the business group corporate model. Advantage Economies of Scope: Bargaining power with suppliers, marketing muscle, information sharing, use management skill. Diversify Risk and Increase Access to Capital Disadvantages Insiders may use corporate assets to server group at expense. May use connections with gov’t to eliminate competition. 8. (2 points) How can government aid development according to New Structuralist Development Strategy? New Structuralist Development theory suggests giving government support to pioneer firms in new advanced industries which provide information to other firms. 9. (2 points) What is Bagehot’s Law? When might it be applied? Bagehot prescribed free lending at penalty rates againsts good collateral during a banking crisis. 3 Computational 10. (2 points) Use the data in the following table from Brazil’s current price national accounts to measure the contribution of Consumption to GDP volume growth in 2009. The increase in prices for sector k = Consumption is k P2009 k P2008 = 1.05 Value Consumption GDP 2008 2400 3000 2009 2610 3017 2610 2400 1.05 Contribution is .0285 3000 11. (2 points) The World Comparison Project breaks purchases in Thailand down into two categories, k = 1 and 2. They report expenditures and relative prices (baht relative to USA $) for each category. Construct the PPP for Thailand. Good k Expenditures (Trillion Baht) 1 2 v1 v2 v1 v 2 P1k P1US P2k 24 16 8 24 36 k k pThai pUS $ 16 8 24 24 3 27 32 24 8 1 36 36 36 9 P2US 4 24 36 Please write your answers on this exam paper. 12. (2 points) The growth rate of volume GDP is always 4% per year. The investment to output ratio is always 25%. Calculate ICOR. ICOR = .25/.04 = 6.25 13. (4 points) The IMF predicts a long-term growth rate of current price GDP for the European country of Portugal to be 2.5%. Use the following table to estimate the average interest rate paid by Portugal on its debt. Using this number for the interest rate, calculate the sustainable primary and overall deficit (as a % of GDP) for Portugal to maintain the debt level from 2010. 2010 Portugal Gross domestic product, current prices Euros, Billions 172.70 Gerneral government overall balance % of GDP Gerneral government overall deficit % of GDP -9.14 General government primary balance % of GDP General government primary deficit % of GDP General government net debt % of GDP 88.70 Current account balance % of GDP -9.89 9.14 -6.28 6.28 g V Debt g V i Debt V V 1 g GDP 1 g GDP . Average Sustainable deficit is . Sustainable primary deficit is Interest Payments Interest Payments (%ofGDP ) Debt Debt (%ofGDP ) interest rate i is = . Debt % of GDP Net Interest Average Sustainable Sustainable Primary 88.70 2.86 0.032255519 2.163365854 -0.627853659 5 6 14. (2 points) Look at the following chart. Relative to France, has Germany become more or less competitive with France since the world financial crisis? Explain. Trillions of Euros Unit Constant Total Labor Costs Price GDP Labor Costs 2007 2011 2011 France 0.7 1.6 1.2 Germany 0.65 2.2 1.8 ULC = Labor Costs/Constant Price GDP = Trillions of Euros Unit Constant Total Unit Labor Costs Price GDP Labor Costs Labor Costs 2007 2011 2011 2011 France 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.75 Germany 0.65 2.2 1.8 0.818182 In 2007, labor costs adjusted for productivity were relatively cheap in German. In 2011, labor costs relative to productivity were relatively low in France. So France became more competitive. 15. (2 points) In September 2012, the current account balance of Thailand was 54 billion baht. The Capital Account was exactly 0. The Financial Account indicated 7.5 billion baht of net inflows. The Bank of Thailand also estimates 5.5 billion baht of unmeasured inflows. How much net foreign reserve assets does the central bank acquire? Net capital outflows were 54 billion. The total measured and unmeasured inflows was 13 billion (7.5+5.5). So 67 = 54 + 13 billion of foreign reserve assets were acquired. 7 Please write your answers on this exam paper. Description 16. (4 points) Name the two main types of monetary policy anchors. Type A. Fixed Exchange Rate Type B. Inflation Target Name an economy that practices each type. Type A. HK Type B. Korea, sweden A country receives a surge of capital inflows. Explain the mechanism through which the current account adjusts for countries of each type. Type A. To avoid appreciation, the central bank must acquire foreign reserves to match inflows with outflows. Type B. Exchange rates appreciates so trade increases. 8 17. (2 points) Read the following excerpt from http://www.economist.com/node/9687923 ONCE, Japan's department stores were symbols of modernity. In 1673 Mitsukoshi, the oldest, introduced the then-radical innovation of fixed prices. At the turn of the last century, its flagship store was the first building in Japan to have central heating and escalators, and one of the first big shops in the country to allow customers to wear shoes. Nowadays, however, depato, as department stores are known in Japanese, seem stodgy. Customers are deserting them in favour of speciality clothing stores and malls. Moreover, consumer spending is flat and the population is declining. Sales have fallen across the industry for a decade, and profits with them. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, expects them to fall further this year. Because productivity is low and operating costs are high, earnings are meagre. Mitsukoshi, for one, has posted losses for six consecutive years. The value of the land on which its stores sit is now thought to be higher than that of the company itself. Department stores have the lowest productivity in the Japanese retailing sector after mom-and-pop outfits, and are around 25% less efficient than their counterparts in America. Describe briefly, the sorts of policies that the Japanese government might adopt according to the McKinsay study on sectoral productivity to boost outcomes in this sector. The retail industry is very competitive. Progress is made by the frequent exit of lagging firms and the entrats of new firms. The government should seek policies which make it easier for firms to exit by trimming their workforce or declaring bankruptcy. At the same time, they should limit the regulatory burden on entry into the workforce. 9 18. (3 points) The World Values Survey argues that cultures can be best explained by looking at 2 key dimensions. a. Label the axes of the following chart with these dimensions. b. Country A has a very high divorce rate. Represent country A as a point on the graph. c. Place Hong Kong or other East Asian growth countries on the graph. 2 H K A ___Secular_______vs,_Traditional_____________ 0 -2 0 ___Suvival_____vs, _____Lifestyle____________ 10 2 19. (4 points) Economic researchers find that in the post-war era that GDP per capita growth has been just as high in non-democracies as in democracies. However, we know that there are other measures of welfare beyond per capita GDP. Considering the points made by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen about “Democracy as a Universal Value,” offer arguments that might explain why democracy might affect these measures beyond their effect on GDP. 11 20. (3 points) You have information on exports from France in two key industries along with the total World level of exports of these industries. Construct three indicators of competitiveness for these industries and place them on a bubble graph. 2001 2011 Total Total French World French World Exports Exports Exports Exports 17 102 50 150 7 28 15 75 Billions of $ [792] Aircraft & equipment [112] Alcoholic beverages a. Exports as a share of world exports 2011: Aircraft 1/3. Wine 1/5 b. .Increase in exports as a share of world exports. 2001: Aircraft 1/6; Wine ¼ ; Increase Aircraft 1/6, Wine -1/20 c. US dollar value of exports. Aircraft 150; Wine 75 __Exports %__________ Aircraf t Wine 0 0 __% Change in Exports_______________________ End Exam 12