NEW ECONOMIC AND
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Risks or Challenges?
Ana Palacio
XXXI Reunión del Círculo de Economía
Sitges, 29 de mayo de 2015
Global Challenges in 2015: The
Breakdown of Global Order?
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New Relevant Actors: MNCs, NGOs, terrorism
“New rules or a world without rules”: Russia, ISIS
The rise of informality and the erosion of rules &
institutions: G´s, IFIs
Withdrawal of the United States from the world
scene & rise of regional champions
What about the EU?
EU Internal (1/3)
Political
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Nostalgia: a recurrent multifaceted phenomenon
Cohesiveness: national perception of the EU usefulness and the
risk of unravelling – Brexit and Grexit
Ambition – both lack and excess
Economic
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Sustainbility – the need for a new model for growth?
Competitiveness: 50-25-7
Legal
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“An ever closer Union”: Energy Union and Single Digital Market
EU Internal (2/3)
Targets:
Digital Agenda
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Better access to consumers and businesses to online goods and services
across Europe
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Creating the right conditions for digital networks and services to flourish
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Maximising the growth potential for our European Digital Economy
What needs to be done?
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Harmonisation and adaptation of rules on personal data protection,
copyright, online purchasing, EU-VAT, digital innovation, investment and
fair competition
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Build trust, encourage PMEs and start-ups, affordable parcel delivery,
prevent unjustified geo-blocking, cross-border access to digital contents
EU Internal (3/3)
Energy Union
Energy security, solidarity and trust
A fully integrated European energy
market
Energy efficiency contributing to
moderation of demand
Decarbonising the economy
Research, Innovation and
Competitiveness
EU Transatlantic
Atlantic Basin: Economic Potential
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Bridge to Latin America
Untapped Potential in Africa
TTIP
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Reinforcing Rules-Based Approach
Maintaining a European Voice
NATO
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Filling the Credibility Gap
EU Neighbourhood
The failure of neighbourhood policy:
The Mediterranean
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Enclaved Economies
Demographics/Governance
Legal Assistance
The Eastern Partnership
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Crumbling Economies
Repressive Regimes
Hollow rule of law
From Risks to Challenges?
As Europeans, our challenge
summarizes in taking ownership
of the EU project and making the
voice of the EU contribute to the
emerging World Order
US Infrastructure Development
Highlighted Pipeline Reversals and Expansions
Accommodating Increased Domestic and
Canadian Supply
“The United States is now the
world’s largest producer of
petroleum and natural gas.
Combined with new clean energy
technologies, and improved fuel
efficiency, and growth in oil and
natural gas production, U.S.
energy security is stronger than it
has been for over half a century.”
The Quadrennial Energy Review,
April 2015
The Growing GDP Gap
Productivity Gap
Africa´s Electricity Gap
The Insidious Challenge of Subsidies
Climate Challenge
Continuing Role of Coal
Impact of Falling Oil Prices &
Shift in Production Models
Source: Eiichi Hasegawa
Economic Growth and
Economic Outlook Projections
Global Oil & Gas Reserves in Proximity of
EU
The EU is located close to nearly 70% of the world’s oil & gas reserves.