Animal Fattening and Fodders
John McPeak
Department of Public Administration and International Affairs
Syracuse University
Presentation at ADRAS IBLI
June 8, 2015
ILRI Nairobi
The Context
• Barrett et al (2008) write “Private creditors that presently do not finance
potentially high-return ventures due to drought risk might be willing to lend if
the assets that secure loans could be insured. Insurance can thereby “crowdin” much-needed credit for enterprises in the region without leaving poor
residents excessively vulnerable to losing assets when nature fails them.” (p.1).
• Empirical evaluations conducted in Ethiopia of the Productive Safety Net
Program (World Bank 2010; Gilligan et al. 2006) illustrate that when the cash
transfers are linked to some form of agricultural innovation long term poverty
reduction is possible.
• Both safety net and index-based insurance programs should arguably improve
producers access to credit for asset building investment.
• Is animal fattening one such innovation that research and extension can
support?
Animal Fattening- Context
• Producer prices in the semi-arid rangelands generally get less than half the
terminal market price.
• Animal conformation plays an important role in determining price per head of
an animal.
• Fattening operations have been growing over the past decade.
• Intensification in the livestock sector is already occurring in the form of finishing
operations in places like Adama outside Addis Ababa (Aklilu 2009, Farmer 2010), in Coast
Province in Kenya (Mahmoud 2006) and ranches elsewhere in Kenya (Farmer and
Mbikwa, 2012).
• These operations are sourcing animals in the arid and semi-arid rangelands, holding
them in finishing lots or ranches to improve or increase body condition, and selling them
at a higher price.
• Guiding question; is there a way to retain some of that value added revenue in
the semi arid areas.
• Alternative income generation option
• Employment
• Could be accessible with the kind of credit that is out there
Nominal Price per TLU Ethiopia ETB
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
Price per Head in TLU
Addis data from
www.lmiset.net
courtesy Jay Angerer
of Texas A&M
6000
4000
IBLI Boran household data
Courtesy of the people
in this room!
2000
0
Addis Nominal
Boran Nominal
Real Price Per TLU Ethiopia 2010 ETB
9000
8000
7000
Prices converted to TLU,
.7 for camel, 1 for cattle,
10 for sheep and goats,
average for price per
TLU for 3 month quarter
per year
6000
5000
4000
CPI adjustment
from WDI
online, 2010 Birr
3000
2000
1000
0
Addis Rea
Borana Real
CATTLE
ALGERIA
Adjelhoc $165
1
MAURITANIA
Kidal $201
!
2
Tombouctou $361
!
Kayes
$311
Kayes
!
Nara $361
4
6
Kati8$386 Segou
Tombouctou
Kidal
3
5
Gossi $278
Konna
$314
7
Mopti
!
Gao
Wabaria $341
!
Menaka $327
NIGER
At the same
time there
are large
spatial
differences
in prices at a
given point
in time –
cattle in Mali
!
8a
Bamako
^
Bamako
$502 9 Segou $428
!(
Niamana
10 $365
BURKINA
Sikasso
!
GUINEA
0
100
200
Kilometers
Ref: ML_C01_Country
Data from
www.malibetail.net
MLPI2 project
What explains these differences?
• Transport costs is certainly part of it
• But are there qualitative differences in animals in different markets?
• Something of a mix of the two it appears
• Price by conformation in Ethiopian markets; Dubuluk in Borana, Adama near
Addis.
• Body conformation percents in Addis, Adama, Mega, and Dubuluk
8000
Conformation Differences by Market
100.0%
7000
90.0%
6000
80.0%
70.0%
5000
60.0%
ADAMA
4000
DUBULUK
3000
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
2000
20.0%
10.0%
1000
0.0%
Addis Markets
0
Fat
Moderate
Thin
Very Thin
Adama
Fat
Moderate
Mega
Thin
Very Thin
Dubuluk
What kinds of price differences are present in these markets by conformation?
Average smallstock prices, Dubuluk market Ethiopia July 2010-July 2012 in Birr, 1 USD July 2012 corresponds to around 17 Birr.
Goat
With respect to moderate
Sheep
With respect to moderate
Very thin
278 ETB
($16.35)
Thin
399 ETB
($23.47)
Moderate
681 ETB
($40.06)
Fat
896 ETB
($52.71)
-59%
226 ETB
($13.29)
-41%
324 ETB
($19.06)
-556 ETB
($32.71)
32%
729 ETB
($42.88)
-59%
-42%
--
31%
Overall Patterns in Nominal Prices for Cattle and Sheep in Mali (www.malibetail.net)
450000
90000
Mature Sheep
400000
80000
350000
70000
300000
60000
Average Price (CFA)
Average Price (CFA)
Mature Cattle
250000
200000
50000
40000
150000
30000
100000
20000
50000
10000
0
0
Week
Gras
Moyen
Week
Maigre
Gras
Moyen
Maigre
Average weekly nominal prices by fat (gras), medium (moyen), and thin (maigre) grade
across the markets being monitored with the Mali Livestock Market Information System
during August 2010 to June 2013. Same pattern in KE, ET, and TZ data.
What are the prospects for animal fattening?
If you unexpectedly received 50,000 CFA ($100) and had no outstanding demands what would you do
with it?
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Animal to raise
Animal to fatten
Small commerce
Purchase Durable
goods
Give as gift
Rank for those who had labor migrated before
Save in pocket
Rank for those who have never labor migrated
If you said no to animal fattening, why did you say no?
Adds up to more than 100% since percent in top three
Reason
Ranked in
the top 3
Feed hard Don't know Risk of
Lack of
to
how
animal loss pastures
get
25%
23%
20%
Invest in credit / coop Loan to merchant Loan to someone else
20%
Lack of
labor
13%
2008 survey of
1224
Individuals in
Gao,
Mopti, and
Tombouctou,
Mali, MLPI 2
project
Other
It takes Past losses The price Price risk
things
too long experienced increase
more
not worth
profitable
it
9%
8%
6%
3%
2%
Study of fattening operations in Mali, 2008-2009
Kassogue et al. 2010 All cash values are in CFA with 1 USD worth around 450 CFA at this point in time
Average
buying
price
Number
Average
selling
price
Average Average
total feed feed cost Average
cost
per day
days
implied
return
implied
Total value
daily wage added
Mopti
cattle
58
92,695 212,350
77,088
($205.99) ($471.89) ($171.31)
81
($0.18)
66
25%
645
($1.43) $5,486.41
Sofara
cattle
215
91,995 166,380
62,205
($204.43) ($369.73) ($138.23)
57
($0.13)
65
8%
187
($0.42) $5,819.33
Koro
cattle
54
157,670 272,465 110,229
($350.38) ($605.48) ($244.95)
58
($0.13)
181
2%
25
($0.06)
$547.92
Do we have suggestions to improve feeding
practices from research? From Niger
Ayantunde et al. 2008, sheep fattening in Niger, feeding trials, different feed mixes, all values in CFA
Bush Hay
Groundnut Haulms
(g/day)
Millet Bran
(g/day)
ad libitum
40 g per day per kg liveweight.
70 days
0
300
0
600
900
0
0
400
400
400
13,368 ($29.71)
13,083 ($29.07)
13,184 ($29.30)
13,173 ($29.27)
13,429 ($29.84)
Feed Cost
1,101 ($2.45)
2,356 ($5.24)
3,394 ($7.54)
5,933 ($13.18)
7,234 ($16.08)
Total Cost
1,301 (2.89)
2,556 ($5.68)
3,594 ($7.99)
6,133 ($13.93)
7,434 ($16.52)
14,669 ($32.60)
15,639 ($34.75)
16,778 ($37.28)
19,306 ($42.90)
20,863 ($46.36)
Net return
743 ($1.65)
1,899 ($4.22)
2,090 ($4.64)
2,260 ($5.02)
-131 (-$0.29)
Sales Price
15,412 ($34.25)
17,538 (38.97)
18,868 ($411.93)
21,566 ($47.92)
20,732 ($46.07)
5.1%
12.1%
12.5%
11.7%
-0.6%
Purchase Price
Total cost + purchase
Rate of return1
Do we have suggestions to improve feeding practices from research?
From Mali, sheep fattening.
Feed
Days
Daily Weight Gain
Net Profit per animal
60% cotton seed cake,
40% peanut leaves
76
200 g
11,020 ($22.04)
45% cotton seed cake, 47%
peanut leaves, 8% millet
84
192 g
9,415 ($18.83)
61% cotton seed cake, 39%
sorghum straw
76
124 g
5,850 ($11.70)
From Hamidou Nantoume’s work in Kayes, Mali with sheep.
Thin sheep sell for about $40, average for $80, fat for $120
Trying to figure out using local resources least cost feeds for the animals
Also working to refine technical capacity to do feed analysis (feed trials
and lab analysis including Near Infrared Spectroscopy)
Fodder options
• There are a series of cowpea accessions that appear to be ideally
suited as a fodder crop, yet much of the work so far has been focused
on the use of cowpea in West Africa (Singh et al , Ayantunde et al.
Kristjanson et al. Tarawali et al.). We would like to see how this could
be adapted to east Africa.
• Other feed options exist that could be investigated such as moringa
oleifera, cajanus cajan, and dolichos lablab.
• Transformation options to produce feeds could include
• Urea enriched straw
• Molasses enriched straw
• I am sure there are lots I don’t know about as well
So where to next?
• West Africa with the history of Tabaski fattening has more of a
tradition with this.
• Basic idea should transfer
• The fact ranchers are moving into this area indicates a potential
opportunity.
• Research on least cost rations, and how they change over time.
• Introduction of fodder crops in areas where crops grow could present
a new income generating opportunity.
• May be more promising than attempting crops like maize that are not going to
make it in most cases.
777
1926
1939
1945
1950
1954
1956
1960
1963
1965
1966
1968
1970
1971
1972
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Cumulative Percent for When a Cultivated Plot was
Established – Borana &Guji, LAND, Ethiopia
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) training
.
Boran cattle passing through markets