2010 UK Automotive Overview

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The UK Automotive Scene

Supplementary data for Auto Expo 2012

Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited

71 Great Peter Street London SW1P 2BN

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

UK Market Overview - 1

• 31 key vehicle manufacturing sites: seven volume passenger car,

11 commercial vehicle, bus, coach and taxi manufacturers.

• Global base for engine manufacture, 2.3m. in 2010.

• 19 of the world’s top 20 industry suppliers and 7 global volume vehicle manufacturers located in UK.

• Motor sport cluster for development and manufacture: eight F1 teams supported by >300 specialist motorsport companies.

• Many foreign vehicle manufacturers now have UK-based R&D centres: Nissan at Cranfield; Ford at Dunton; SAIC at Longbridge;

Changan at Nottingham; TATA at Warwick. – and Jaguar-Land

Rover

• Creation of UK Automotive Council – framework for collaboration with Government to improve the UK investment offer and positioning of UK as centre for ultra low carbon development.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 2

UK Market Overview - 2

• Majority of UK automotive manufacturing foreign-owned.

• Mature market, 4th largest car producer in EU*.

• Exports average >£25 billion annually, over 10% of UK exports.

• 2010 car production nearly 1.3mn, up from <1m in 2009 recession; exports have increased from c65% 2000 to >75% in 2010.

• Commercial vehicle production consistently > 200,000 between

2004-8, but just 90,000 in 2009 (not supported by scrappage scheme). 2010 production back to c123,000, with exports c70%.

• UK had fourth highest R&D spend in Europe at over £1.5 billion p.a.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

* Source OICA

PAGE 3

UK Market Overview - 3

SMMT 12th Annual Sustainability Report 18 signatory companies

- across the broader industry, shows year on year:

• Manufacturing turnover up 20% to £49bn.

• Output up 27.8%, returning to pre-recession volumes.

• Number of vehicles exported up 31%, totalling £29bn in value.

• Energy use per vehicle produced down 8%.

• Manufacturing CO

2 emissions down 10.5% per vehicle produced.

• Manufacturing waste to landfill produced per vehicle down 8%.

• New automotive apprenticeships up 9% adding to the 737,000 jobs dependent on the sector.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 4

Key elements of the sector

• Strong independent design engineering and testing base.

• Significant foreign manufacturing investment and R&D investment / spend.

• Efficient manufacture and high export ratios of both volume and premium / niche vehicles.

• Strong powertrain sector with technological innovation and scale.

• Low carbon technology and electric vehicle development and manufacture, with strong government support.

• Comprehensive OEM aftermarket component manufacture, distribution, service and repair capacity.

• In depth HE academic study & research and FE sector training.

• Highly sophisticated retail and distribution logistics import / export services.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 5

UK Production

Restructuring, Rebirth, Recession, Recovery

1,8

1,6

1,4

1,2

1,0

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0,0

SMMT Production Outlook 2011 - 16

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Years

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 6

Long-term commitment to UK – major announcements in 2010-11

• BMW : £500m investment across all 3 UK facilities for the 3 rd generation MINI; expansion of range to include Coupe and Roadster Minis

• Ford : 5 year £1.5bn investment in engineering and manufacturing facilities.

• GM : next generation Vivaro confirmed for Vauxhall’s Luton plant from 2013/4.

• Honda : commitment to new Civic and CRV, following total £1.4bn investment at Swindon.

• Nissan : £420m investment to make LEAF and batteries; £192m investment for new Qashqai

• Tata JLR : retaining three vehicle assembly sites, build new engine factory, widen product range, creating >2,000 new jobs; >£2bn of supply contracts for the Range Rover Evoque; £490mn investment for C-X75 hybrid supercar

• Tata : establishment and expansion of European Technical Centre.

• Aston Martin : Cygnet production to create 150 new jobs; Rapide production moving to Gaydon from Austria.

• McLaren : MP4-12C to be produced in Woking.

• SAIC MG : MG6 GT to be designed engineered and assembled in Longbridge.

• Optare : new 1,200 capacity bus manufacturing facility in Yorkshire..

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 7

Key issues for the UK automotive industry

• Economic crisis in Europe, USA, Japan, alongside market decline

/ overcapacity in some markets.

• Sustainable Government support? Problems with suppliers’ access to finance.

• Low cost economy countries / High growth markets – both opportunity and competitive threats.

• Local supply chain fragmented erosion “hollowing out”/ overseas head office decision making.

• Some SMEs lack global trade awareness / global competitiveness / skills and training.

• Maintaining manufacturing efficiency, investment in UK based design engineering, research and development.

• Environmental / Low carbon legislation, Alternative fuels, ICE hybrids, Electric vehicles.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 8

Key UK technology opportunities

• Build and retain capacity in “sticky” technologies , ie:

– Energy storage and management

– Electric motors and power electronics

– Lightweight technologies

– CO2 and emissions reduction technology

• Other key technologies in which UK has potential:

– In-vehicle communications and management systems, driver communications; congestion warning systems; navigation; telematics.

– Materials; composites and alternative materials / jointing technology

– Environmental protection / emissions

– Rapid prototyping and manufacturing process improvement.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 9

Changing Dynamics of UK Car Sector

Demise of the old UK ‘Big 3’ - Growth of Japanese & BMW

2500

2000

1500

1000

Others

BMW

Honda

Toyota

Nissan

Land Rover

Jaguar

Vauxhall

Peugeot

Ford

Rover

500

0

1972 1982 1999 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 10

UK vehicle manufacturers’ product ranges

VOLUME CARS

BMW - Mini range, incl. Clubman, Coupe and Roadster

• Honda - Civic, CR-V & Jazz

Jaguar

– XJ, XK XF

• Land Rover - Defender, Discovery, Freelander, Range

Rover, Range Rover Sport & Evoque

• Nissan – Note, Qashqai & Juke (and Leaf electric from

2013)

• Toyota - Auris, Auris Hybrid & Avensis

Vauxhall

– Astra

PRESTIGE / NICHE LOW VOLUME CARS

Aston Martin - DB9, Vantage, Virage, Cygnet

• Bentley – Continental, Mulsanne

Caterham - Classic, Super 7

• Ginetta - F400, G50EV & G50R road cars & G20,

G40, G40 Junior, G50 & Zytek race cars

• Lotus - Elise, Evora, Exige ; new Elan, Elise & Esprit

• McLaren Automotive MP4-12C sports car (from

2011)

Morgan

– Supersports, 4/4 Sport, 4 seater,

Plus4, Roadster & Roadster Sport sports cars

Rolls Royce - Phantom & Ghost

• SAIC - MG6 saloon

COMMERCIAL

• Alexander Dennis - buses & coaches

Dennis Eagle - refuse trucks

• Ford - Transit van, Transit Minibus

Vauxhall

Vivaro van and minibus, plus Renault Trafic versions

Leyland Trucks - trucks

• London Taxis Int - TX4 taxi and hydrogen fuel cell demonstrator

• Optare - single & double deck buses

Wrightbus - buses

FORMULA 1

McLaren racing

• Mercedes F1 - formerly Brawn

• Red Bull

Williams F1

• Renault F1

Force India

• Lotus F1

• Virgin Racing

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 11

Engine manufacture

2.39 million engines manufactured in 2010 (up 16% from 2009).

Key manufacturing plants include:

• Ford, Dagenham & Bridgend

• BMW, Hams Hall

• Honda, Swindon

• Toyota, Deeside

• Nissan, Sunderland

• Cummins, Darlington

• VW, (Bentley) Crewe

1,640,197

385,051

136,658

114,254

105,766

43,525

4,791

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 12

UK Design and Engineering Skills

• Product planning and development.

• Vehicle conceptualisation and styling.

• Rapid prototyping services.

• Manufacturing engineering/feasibility.

• Structural analysis & vehicle simulation.

• Vehicle body, chassis, powertrain & trim.

• Vehicle component development.

• Electrical and electronics, chip designing.

• Engine engineering.

• Testing and validation, homologation.

• Special training packages (for CAE, CAM).

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 13

UK Car Production

• Car output in 2010 increased 27.1% to 1,270,444 (2009 -

999,460)

• Nissan highest production at 423,262 – increase of 25% on 2009

• Export market is 75.7% of production

2000000

1800000

1600000

1400000

1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 14

UK Commercial Vehicle Production

• 2010 production increased by 35.7% at 123,019 vehicles

• Vauxhall and Ford = 85.7% of all CV production

• Export market is 69.5% of production (2009 77.5%)

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

35%

30%

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 15

Vehicle production – moving annual total

Total Export

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

Car production rolling year total

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

Total Export

250

200

150

100

50

CV production rolling year total

PAGE 16

UK supply chain

• About 80% of all component types required for vehicle assembly operations can be procured from UK suppliers.

• The supply chain represents about 40% of the retail price of a passenger car.

• The UK automotive supply chain typically generates £4.5 - £5bn of added value annually.

• Around 2,350 UK companies regard themselves as ‘automotive’ suppliers, employing around 82,000 people.

• It is estimated that every job in a vehicle’s assembly supports 7.5 elsewhere in the economy.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 17

Production Exports / Registration Imports

The UK increasingly manufactures cars to export and imports cars to drive

76% production exported - 85% registrations imported

100,00

90,00

80,00

70,00

60,00

50,00

40,00

30,00

20,00

10,00

0,00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

Exports

Imports

PAGE 18

UK New Car Registrations

• In 2010 the car motor parc was 31.14m (2009 31.04m)

• Diesel market remains strong for lower medium and above

• Super mini remains UK largest sector purchase (36.4%)

• MPV and 4x4 SUV market share continues to rise

• Hybrid and EV demand only slowly increasing and replaces LPG demand – AFV registrations in 2010 were 22,865 – 1.12% market share, of which 167 were Electric vehicles.

• Ford Fiesta, Vauxhall Astra and Ford Focus top 3 cars

• Market in 2010 has risen 1.8% to 2.03m vehicles matching 2009

SMMT prediction

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 19

November 2011 Registrations - new cars market down - but fuel efficiency better than ever

• New car demand fell by 4.2% in November to 134,000 units, but was some 5,000 units above forecast.

• Diesel and alternatively fuelled cars both took record market shares in the November market.

• Average new car fuel efficiency improved 29.3% in last 10 years, giving the highest ever mpg.

• New car registrations over the first 11 months of 2011 were down

4.5%, at 1,822,000 units.

• Market looks set to better full year forecast of 1.923 million units, but caution remains over 2012.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 20

November 2011 Registrations van and trucks market continues upward trend, growing 19.1%

• Van and truck registrations up 19.1% to 27,187 units in

November, rolling year up 18.6% to 300,331.

• Truck registrations up 21.5% to 4,503 in November month, rolling year up 24.4% to 41,507.

• Van registrations up 18.6% to 22,684 units in November, rolling year up 17.7% to 258,824.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 21

New car registrations

Market stabilised, at lower level

• The scrappage scheme helped support volumes.

• Market down 7.3% to May and set to end 2011 at 1.93 million units.

New car registrations, 12 month moving annual total 2008 to 2012

UK new car registrations 2008 to 2012 - actual and SMMT forecasts rolling year totals - moving monthly annual totals

Actual data

SMMT forecast (Oct 10)

SMMT forecast (Jan 11)

SMMT forecast (Apr 11)

2200

2150

2100

2050

2000

1950

1900

1850

1800

1750

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 22

New car registrations

Impact of scrappage scheme

• Scrappage in place May 2009 to March 2010 (with some overhang).

• Represented almost 15% total sales over that period.

New car registrations, 2009 to 2011, with scrappage identified (Source SMMT)

500 000

2008 SIS 2009 SIS 2009 2010 2011

450 000

2011 forecast

400 000

350 000

300 000

250 000

200 000

150 000

100 000

50 000

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 23

Automotive Council – www.automotivecouncil.co.uk

A very powerful industry and government partnership

Has helped to transform automotive business environment to provide a more compelling investment proposition for related industries;

Expanding technology roadmaps for low carbon vehicles and fuels, to help promote the UK as a strong candidate to develop these and other technologies;

• Developing commodities roadmap helping to develop a stronger and more competitive automotive supply chain;

• Providing a very strong public voice for the industry to support the value of the industry to the UK and to global partners;

• Ensuring high level, strategic, continuous conversation between government and the automotive industry in the UK.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 24

Moving to a lower carbon transport network

Meeting EU legislation:

• Average of 144.2g/km in 2010 – 3.5% down on 2009 and 20.3% on

2000.

• Q1-3 2011 at 138.5g/km, down 4.0% on 2010 and 23.5% on 2000.

• 130g/km by 2015, the equivalent of 58mpg with a diesel engine and

52mpg in a petrol car.

• 65% of new cars averaging the 130g/km target by 2012 rising to 100% in 2015.

• Manufacturers exceeding the targets will be heavily fined per additional gram of CO

2 emitted, for every car registered across Europe.

• Specialist targets for small volume and niche manufacturers.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 25

History and levels of Euro standards for cars

Euro

Standards

Euro 0

Euro 1

Euro 2

Euro 3

Euro 4

Euro 5

Euro 6

Entry into force (new type approvals)

New car types

1 Oct '91

1 Jul '92

1 Jan '96

1 Jan '00

1 Jan '05

1 Sep '09

1 Sep '14

All new cars

1 Oct '93

31 Dec '92

1 Jan '97

1 Jan '01

1 Jan '06

1 Jan '11

1 Sep '15

Emission limits

Petrol NOx

1000 mg/km

490 mg/km

250 mg/km

150 mg/km

80 mg/km

60 mg/km

60 mg/km

Diesel NOx

1600 mg/km

780 mg/km

730 mg/km

500 mg/km

250 mg/km

180 mg/km

80 mg/km

Diesel PM

(no limit)

140 mg/km

100 mg/km

50 mg/km

25 mg/km

5 mg/km

5 mg/km

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 26

UK air quality is improving

Since 2000 – levels of pollution are falling.

New Car average CO

2 in 2010. emissions have fallen by over 20% - dropping 3.5%

Diesel engines have contributed to this improvement.

A car built today (Euro 5), compared to one built in 2000 (Euro 3) has reduced its CO2 by 13% and emissions of other pollutants by at least:

• nitrogen oxides (NOx) 64%

• particulates (PM10) 90%

• carbon monoxide (CO) 22%

Road transport emissions have also been reduced:

• nitrogen oxides (NOx) 40%,

• particulates (PM10) 30%

• carbon monoxide (CO) 60%.

Source: Government figures (DfT – Transport Statistics GB)

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 27

UK average new car CO

2

emissions

UK average new car CO

2 emissions (Source SMMT)

190

185

180

175

170

165

160

155

150

145

140

135

130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD-

11

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 28

Car CO

2

emissions, parc and distance travelled

• Reduction despite increase in distance travelled and parc size since 2000.

• Further declines expected, as distance travelled curbed and efficiency improves.

CO2 Parc Distance travelled

115

110

105

100

95

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Source DECC/SMMT/DfT

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 29

Distribution of market by VED bands

Band E (131-140g/km) most common, in 2000 it was Band G (151-165g/km).

Band A (<100g/km) share doubled in 2010 and again in 2011.

Distribution of the new car market by VED bands (Source SMMT)

A B C D E F G H I J K L M

YTD

2011

2010

2000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Band A B C D E F G H I J K L M

CO2 g/km

Standard rate £

1st year rate £

Upto 100 101-110 111-120 121-130 131-140 141-150 151-165 166-175 176-185 186-200 201-225 226-255 Over 255

0

0

20

0

30

0

95

0

115

115

130

130

165

165

190

265

210

315

245

445

260

580

445

790

460

1000

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 30

UK performance vs European average

UK making better progress than EU average.

Average new car CO

2 emissions across the EU (Source EC)

2010 2009 2000 % ch ‘10 vs ’09

144.2g/km 149.7g/km 185.4g/km -3.7% UK

EU

France

140.3g/km 145.7g/km 172.2g/km

130.5g/km 133.5g/km 163.6g/km

Germany 151.2g/km 154.0g/km 182.0g/km

-3.7%

-2.2%

-1.8%

% ch ‘10 vs ’00

-22.2%

-18.5%

-20.2%

-16.9%

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 31

Existing CO

2

Regulations for cars and Vans

EU has adopted CO2 Regulations for cars and vans.

Individual manufacturer targets add up to deliver EU fleet average target.

New car fleet

130g/km in 2015 (19%)

95g/km in 2020 (39%).

New van fleet

175g/km in 2017 (14%)

147g/km in 2020 (28%).

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 32

Existing CO

2

Regulations for cars and Vans

Important flexibilities

• Targets phased in 2012-15 (cars), 2014-17

(vans).

• Derogations for small volume and niche manufacturers: targets consistent with their economic and technological potential.

Eco-innovations, super credits, pooling.

Integrated approach includes CO

2 based tax, consumer information. (labelling new and used cars, databases), MAC, LRRT,

GSI etc.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 33

Outlook for car emissions

EU-wide target for 130g/km by 2015 and 95g/km 2020 (subject to IA).

Note EU, not UK specific targets. 38.2% of 2010 UK market <130g/km.

EU-wide van target - 175g/km by 2014-17 and 147g/km by 2020 (subject to review).

UK average new car CO2 emissions and EC wide regulation targets

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

(

Source SMMT/EC

)

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 34

Next Challenge: Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDVs)

• HDVs are not yet regulated for CO

2 in Europe.

• Measurement method is the bottleneck in policy making.

Research ongoing, likely to use computer simulation and validate with physical testing.

• EU Commission policy development timetable:

February/March 2012 - measurement methodology stakeholder meeting.

• May/ June 2012 - draft EU strategy stakeholder meeting.

End 2012 - impact assessment.

First half 2013 - Commission to propose strategy.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 35

Longer Term Strategy for 2030 and 2050

EU ambitions and UK binding targets

• EU committed to 20% CO

2 and 80-95% by 2050. cut by 2020 (or 30% if global targets)

• UK is legally committed to:

Carbon Budgets for each five year period to 2027.

50% CO

2 cut by 2025.

• 80% cut by 2050 (both relative to 1990, all sectors)

(Cannot stop there, need more cuts by 2100).

• UK government will set out it’s strategy to meet the Carbon

Budgets (“Autumn Strategy” due 1 December).

• UK Automotive Council technology roadmaps for cars, commercial vehicles, off-highway.

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 36

High Level Technology Roadmap - CARS

OEMs share a common view

(Individual manufacturers will prioritise certain technologies to fit with brand values)

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 37

Low carbon Commercial Vehicle & Off-highway roadmap has parallel technology streams depending on duty cycle

2010 2020

Niche EVs

2030 2040

Commercial/OffHighway EV’s

2050

H

2 infrastructure

Fuel cell vehicles

Fuel Cell APUs

Demos

Full hybrid

Plug in hybrid

Micro/Mild hybrid

Technology Roadmap

IC Engine efficiency improvements

Waste heat recovery Advanced thermodynamic cycles

Sustainable liquid/gaseous fuels Biofuels

Powertrain efficiency improvements/ancillary electrification

Intelligent vehicles logistics – operational efficiency (On & Off-highway)

Advanced highway vehicle aerodynamics/selective lightweighting

CO

2 reductions limited by air quality regulations

LD Van CO

2

Regulation

Possible HD/MD

CO

2

Regulation

“Zero” Air

Quality Impact

UK CO

2

Target

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

38

Air Quality Improvements

CO

2 and GHG reduction

PAGE 38

Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited

71 Great Peter Street London SW1P 2BN

SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

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