Microsoft’s Smartphone
and
Future Trends in Handheld Computing
Sandeep Sibal
Technologist
<sandeep@sibal.com>
May 21, 2003
Planet PDA
Sheraton Ferncroft Resort
Danvers, Massachusetts
Agenda
• Microsoft’s Smartphone
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Why build a Smartphone?
Smartphone as PPC successor
Smartphone Platform
Smartphone UI
Applications
Using Web Services
Smartphone Deployments
Obstacles to Dominance
• Future Handheld Trends
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The Magic Wand?
Limitations
User Interfaces
Personalization
New Technologies
Emerging Architectures
New Products and Services
Concluding Thoughts
Disclaimer: This presentation does not reflect Microsoft or any other company’s views.
Microsoft’s
Smartphone
Why build a Smartphone?
• Maturity in Microsoft’s core desktop market (Windows, Office, ..)
• Continue Microsoft’s growth onto new mainstream devices:
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Set-top boxes (Ultimate TV)
Internet Access (MSN)
PDAs (Win CE)
Video game consoles (Xbox)
Tablets (Windows for Tablet PC)
Mobile phones (over a billion phones with improving data capabilities)
• Establish “platform leadership” (as on the desktop w/ Wintel)
• Commoditize the mobile handset – refocus on software
• Drive revenues across other businesses (.NET Web Services and
other server-side software)
Smartphone as PocketPC (phone ed.) successor
1.
Consumer focus - not just for mobile
professionals
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Phone first, PDA second
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Much smaller form factor
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One-handed navigation with keypad
and joystick
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No touch screen or stylus
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Lacks Pocket Word/Excel etc.
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Emphasis on voice and data
communication
Available later this year:
Smartphone 2003 (powered by WinCE 4.2) has .NET Compact Framework
shipping in ROM; Bluetooth; and support for a built-in camera.
Smartphone Platform
Many familiar Win32 APIs reused: Winsock, TAPI etc.
Desktop and PocketPC apps can run on the Smartphone with modifications
Apps written for GSM networks may be re-run on CDMA networks
Smartphone UI
• System Font
– 11pt bold Nina
• Title Bar
– Top 20 pixels
• Menu Bar
– Bottom 20 pixels
– Dynamically changes based on state
• Soft Key Menu
– Press to display menu
– Press to close menu
• Message Box
– Information or Confirmation
• Dialog Box
– various controls..
Applications
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Unified Inbox (email, voicemail, SMS, ..)
Contacts (address and phone book)
Calendar
Tasks
Pocket Internet Explorer (HTML, WML, ..)
MSN Messenger (Instant Messaging)
Windows Media Player
ActiveSync
– USB cable
– Over The Air
• Games
– Solitaire, ..
• Smartdial (Telephony)
• Numerous 3rd party applications available
Using Web Services
Very similar to building apps on Win32 or WinCE except that .NET
(Compact) Framework functionality is missing. Since a SOAP
Toolkit is unavailable, the following classes need to be built:
1. SOAP writer for sending SOAP packets
2. SOAP connector using the WinInet API (HTTP)
3. SOAP reader for reading SOAP packets
Example architecture of a Map Mobile Web services
Smartphone Deployments
Operators and countries*:
Europe Handheld 1Q 2003 Mkt:
– Orange (UK, France, ..and other
PDA (WinCE): 320 K
European countries)
Smartphone (Win CE): 60 K
– Smart (Philippines)
“Smartphones” (all**): 860 K
– AT&T (USA) – 2003?
Palm: 285 K
– T-Mobile (Germany) 2003?
shelved for now??
Europe Handheld 2003 Mkt Est.
– Eurotel (Czech Republic) –
PDAs: 2.8million
2003?
Symbian/Smartphone: 3.3 million
– CECT (Taiwan) – 2003?
– O2 (Hong Kong) – 2003?
– China Unicom (China) – 2004?
*the list of operators is possibly incomplete
**this category includes Symbian handhelds
Some obstacles to the dominance of
Microsoft’s Smartphone
Short to mid term:
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Mid to long term:
Software bugs
Application signing requirement
Expensive logo certification
Lack of a Bluetooth API
Lack of a Camera API
.NET CF not available on
Smartphone 2002
– .Net CF apps needs
Visual Studio .NET ($$)
– Battery life
– PC design (personalization,..)
– From a horizontal to a vertical mkt?
– Concerted resistance by the growing
Symbian camp
– Operator’s walled garden
approach… despite branding.
Widely varying analyst predictions over the next few years:
from leadership to annihilation!
Future Trends
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Handheld Computing
The Magic Wand
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Cross-functional value of integrating functionality is significant.
Market for PDAs is stagnant, but for telephony-enabled smartphones is rising!
Some Fundamental Limitations
• User mobility
– Importance of non-visual data input and output while moving; e.g., speech
interface
– Occasional loss of wireless connectivity
• Form factor: Maximum size
– Hand-held
– Ease of Portability
• Form factor: Minimum size
– Eyesight (screen)
Projection screens only if immobile
– Tactile data input
Canesta-type data input only if immobile
These fundamental limitations bound what will be possible in the
future on handhelds
User Interfaces
• Ergonomic physical design is
critical – not a shrunk computer!
• Optimized for use (e.g., n-gage)
• Multiple modes of interaction* –
flexible data input and output
depending on user situation, task,
or connectivity:
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GUI
Speech
Gesture
Handwriting
Gaze?
*See the W3C Multimodal Interaction Working Group for efforts to
standardize such interfaces. Also see Kirusa’s website for demonstrations of
multimodal interfaces on various handhelds.
Personalization
Unlike a computer, you “wear” your
handheld all the time. It is a personal
statement of who you are. Its look and
feel are therefore very critical.
Some aspects are:
• Faceplates
• Fashion phones (e.g., Matrix phone)
• Polyphonic Ring-tones
• Skins
• Background images
• Screen savers
• Multiple profiles (indoor, outdoor,
meeting, ..)
• Flashing lights
• Customized Vibrations?
New Technologies
Moore’s law and the maturation of existing and future scientific discoveries & inventions will
substantially improve the handheld’s capabilities with respect to:
• CPU & Memory
• Screen displays (OLED, E-ink microcapsules, ..)
• Cameras (2Megapixel cameras < $200)
• Microphones (minimize background noise)
• Speech recognition and synthesis
• Gesture and handwriting recognition
• Location based technologies
• Sensors (pressure, temperature, chemical, biological,..)
• Personal (health and fitness)
• Battery life (also liquid fuel, and nuclear!)
• Bandwidth (EDGE, EVDO, lower cost Wi-Fi!)
• Audio/Video and other real-time streaming capabilities (VoIP, HDTV, ..)
• 2D and 3D rendering (especially for games)
• Security (biometrics, crypto..)
• Increased cross-connectivity across various functionalities
Emerging Architectures
• Coupling of hardware-centric
functional modules
– Fused into the handheld (e.g.,
Camera-phones)
– Expansion slots (e.g., CF slots)
– Personal Area Network (e.g.,
Bluetooth). See IXI’s PMG.
– Promiscuous binding with
surrounding capabilities (Project
Oxygen)
• How will these architectures
evolve?
• Location of Computation
– Embedded (computed locally in
the handheld). Can operate in
disconnected mode. Limited by
CPU, memory, battery power.
– Network (computed in network).
More compute resources but
limited by connectivity,
bandwidth & latency.
– Distributed. Part-embedded, partnetwork based. (e.g., Distributed
Speech recognition)
• How will these architectures
evolve?
New Products and Services
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Numerous new products (Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Samsung, LG, Kyocera, Fujitsu-Siemens,
HTC, Compal, Panasonic, Hitachi, NEC, Toshiba, Audiovox, Sendo, Danger, RIM, HPCompaq, Palm, Handspring, ..) - with a multitude of designs and features.
Innumerable companies working on novel applications and services.
Difficult to predict new innovations and their success in the marketplace.
Sources of innovation:
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Researchers tinkering with new technologies (e.g., Transistor)
User Need (e.g., Tim Berners Lee and the World Wide Web)
Repurposing existing technologies (e.g., GPS for LBS)
Services arising from new market segments (e.g, oddball digital merchandise: Pokemon
characters)
– Innovations arising from unusual situations (e.g., Rollerboards due to the California drought)
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Some major near-term emerging services:
– Location based services (Sprint’s E-911 A-GPS, AT&T Find Friends, Motorola’s ViaMOTO, ..)
– Rich-media messaging and conferencing (Multimedia messaging, Video clips,..). Bandwidth
currently limiting adoption.
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Enterprise applications such as CRM, SFA and FFA may well drive some of the newer (and
often more expensive) services before they are readied for the mass market.
Concluding Thoughts
• Handhelds are becoming a multi-purpose magic wand.
• Handheld functionality will continue to improve
substantially within the limitations of form factor and
mobility
• User interfaces and personalization are critical for success
in the marketplace
• Handheld computing will benefit substantially from new
technologies and Moore’s law.
• Multiple architectures will compete and co-exist in the
coming years.
• New products and services will arise from unexpected
places
Thank You
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