The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Sociology General Comprehensive Examination in Demography October 2012 Section A. Fertility and Family Please answer one (1) of A1 and A2. A1. Describe and explain the decoupling of marriage and childbearing that has occurred in the United States over the past 40 years. What is the current rate of nonmarital childbearing in the U.S.? What are the dominant explanations of this decoupling of marriage and parenthood, and why are certain demographic groups more affected by this decoupling? A2. Falling fertility rates and below-replacement fertility are problems for most modernized countries, and even the U.S. is dependent on high immigrant birth rates to achieve replacement fertility. Describe the factors that are associated with below-replacement fertility. What policy measures and cultural norms help alleviate low fertility? Which norms and policies are associated with very low fertility? Do you think these low rates constitute a “crisis”? Section B. Health and Mortality Please answer one (1) of B1 and B2. B1. Define the epidemiologic transition. What are the key patterns of mortality change that characterize the epidemiologic transition? Further, evaluate the stages of the epidemiologic transition as discussed in the literature by Omran, Olshansky, and others. How can we as a research community use the concept of the epidemiologic transition to best make sense of longterm mortality changes within and across societies? B2. In a now classic paper, Link and Phelan (1995) introduced the idea of socioeconomic status as a "fundamental cause of disease" to sociologists. What did Link and Phelan mean by the concept of fundamental cause? What implications has this concept had on research related to socioeconomic status and health/mortality? Provide examples. Finally, if socioeconomic status is a fundamental cause of disease/health/mortality, can socioeconomic differences in disease/health/mortality be reduced or even eliminated? If so, how so? If not, why not? Section C. Migration and Spatial Distribution Please answer one (1) of C1 and C2. C1. Evaluate the following assertions(s): There is an emerging demographic crisis in Southern and Eastern Europe and it is as much a product of urbanization as of low fertility. C3. Define immigrant selectivity and explain why it is important when studying immigrant outcomes in the United States in the following areas: a) education, b) health, c) fertility, d) labor markets? Choose two of these areas and describe what has been done to address the effect of immigrant selectivity, and what the empirical findings are in each of the two areas of research. Section D. Methods Please answer one (1) of D1 and D2. D1. In a 2006 comps question about the reproduction of penguins, it was stated that the females lay only one egg each year. Penguins are serially monogamous, that is during a given year they will mate and nest with only one other penguin of the opposite sex. Both parents are essential to the successful gestation, laying, and hatching of the single egg (since the father sits on the egg while the mother goes off to get food). In this modification of the problem, assume: i) females will lay their first egg three months before their fourth birthday; ii) mortality is the same for males and females; iii) the probability of surviving the first year of life after the egg is hatched is 0.8 (1q0=0.2); iv) the probability of surviving the next three years of life is 0.85 (3q1=0.15); v) the probability of surviving any year after reaching exact age 4 is 0.8 (1qx=0.2); vi) the probability that the egg will hatch (result in a live birth) is 0.90 if both parents survive the gestation and incubation period (3 months total); vii) the sex ratio at hatching is 1 to 1; viii) every surviving female penguin of reproductive age is able to find a male with whom to mate; ix) no penguins survive beyond their 30th birthday. Mating takes place in May, and eggs are laid in early June, and hatching takes place in August. Based on the above information: a) Sketch the lx curve for either or both sexes. b) Calculate life expectancy for either or both sexes. c) For the species to be viable, under the above assumptions, how long would the female reproductive period have to last? In other words, at what age would a female lay her last egg if the Net Reproduction Rate were 1.0? Be sure to show your work, and provide the formulas you have used. If you cannot reach a numerical answer, but know the formula, please give the formula. Also, if you wish, you may use Excel to do the calculations. D2. Below you will find a life table for females in the Netherlands in 1850. Netherlands, Life tables (period 5x1), Females Modified: 15-Jun-2011, MPv5 Year Age mx qx ax lx dx Lx Tx 1850 0 0.20163 0.17827 c) 100000 17827 f) 4080774 1850 1-4 0.03312 0.12168 1.32 82173 9999 301907 3992361 1850 5-9 0.00854 0.04169 2.18 72174 3009 352386 3690454 1850 10-14 0.00512 0.02526 2.44 69165 1747 341358 3338068 1850 15-19 0.00603 b) 2.59 67418 2005 332262 2996710 1850 20-24 0.00740 0.03632 2.53 65413 2376 321200 2664448 1850 25-29 0.00997 0.04869 2.62 63037 3069 307881 2343248 1850 30-34 0.01178 0.05728 2.59 59968 3435 291574 2035368 1850 35-39 0.01290 0.06257 2.58 56533 3537 274116 1743794 1850 40-44 0.01353 0.06534 2.41 52996 3463 256011 g) 1850 45-49 a) 0.06635 2.48 49533 3286 239370 1213666 1850 50-54 0.01637 0.07876 2.59 46246 3643 222453 974296 1850 55-59 0.02148 0.10209 2.57 42604 4350 202461 751843 1850 60-64 0.03162 0.14720 2.66 38254 5631 178081 549382 1850 65-69 0.04859 0.21740 2.58 d) 7092 145973 371301 1850 70-74 0.07538 0.31813 2.55 25531 8122 107750 225329 1850 75-79 0.11218 0.43488 2.42 17409 7571 67485 117579 1850 80-84 0.16248 0.57171 2.41 9838 5625 34618 50094 1850 85-89 0.24846 0.72473 2.13 4214 e) 12290 15476 1850 90-94 0.34851 0.84233 1.93 1160 977 2803 3186 1850 95-99 0.47005 0.91963 1.69 183 168 358 382 1850 100-104 0.59589 0.96015 1.47 15 14 24 25 1850 105-109 0.71127 0.97908 1.30 1 1 1 1 1850 110+ 0.79461 1.00000 1.26 0 0 0 0 (May07) ex 40.81 48.58 51.13 48.26 44.45 40.73 37.17 33.94 30.85 27.73 24.50 21.07 17.65 14.36 11.38 8.83 6.75 h) 3.67 2.75 2.09 1.67 1.40 1.26 a-h) Eight numbers from this life table have been removed. Please calculate the missing numbers and explain how you did the calculation. i) In this life table, what is the probability that someone who survives to age 5 will survive to age 60? j) In the stationary population corresponding to this life table, what fraction of the female population age 55 and over is alive fifteen years later? k) What is the Net Reproduction Rate in this stationary population? What approximately is the Total Fertility Rate? l) What fraction of Netherlands females age 15-24 in the 1850 census would you expect to be alive ten years later?