Elektromobilität und Klimaschutz
in Europa
Felix Creutzig
TU Berlin
Economics of Climate Change
How do total GHG emission change with the
advent of the electric bike in Europe?
Total
emissions
=
Carbon
intensity
CO2e
MJ
How does the
carbon intensity
of fuels change
with electric
bikes?
x
Energy
intensity
x
MJ
km
How does the fuel
efficiency of
average mode
change with
electric bikes?
Demand
km
How does total
distance driven/
travel behaviour
change with
electric bikes?
Creutzig, F., Edenhofer. O. (2010): Mobilität im Wandel - Wie der Klimaschutz
den Transportsektor vor neue Herausforderungen stellt. Internationales
Verkehrswesen 62(3):1-6.
Creutzig, F., McGlynn, E., Minx, J., Edenhofer, O. (2011): Climate policies for
road transport revisited (1): Evaluation of the current framework. Energy
Policy. 39(5): 2396-2406
Fuel efficiency standards
Energy intensity standards (in l/km) extrapolated from current volume
and GHG fuel efficiency standards.
Data adapted from An et al. (2007) with updated fuel efficiency regulations
Diversification of fuel pathways
Currently measured either in volume/
distance and/or CO2e/distance.
 Any propellant can have varying CO2
footprint.





Saudi-Arabian Oil vs. tar sands from Alberta
Corn ethanol produced in old bio-refineries vs.
sugar cane ethanol in modern bio-refineries
Electricity from coal plants vs. electricity from
renewable energies
Car manufacturers cannot influence
the specific CO2 footprint of
propellants
With increasing share of
alternative fuels & vehicles,
regulate car manufacturers in
terms of energy efficiency
(MJ/km) but not CO2e/km.
California:
US:
EU:
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
RFS2
Fuel Quality Directive
Two factors matter: efficiency of cars
and carbon content of fuels
Carbon footprint of alternative fuels is with production, and varying.
Carbon intensity standards for fuels
Standards
•
EU Fuel Quality Directive,
Californian LCFS, and US RFS2
•
EU Fuel Quality Directive mandates
CO2e-reduction of 6%+2%+2% till
2022
•
Californian LCFS first instrument
that mandates CO2e-reduction
across fuels (10% till 2020)
•
Some lifecycle GHG emissions
measures in the US federal RFS2
(also: proposal for China)
Problem: Standards do not
account for marginal effects
Key messages
• CO2-specific fuel efficiency standard are
inappropriate for diversifying fuel supply
chains, in particular electric cars
• Fuel intensity standards fail to account for
marginal effects of integrated energy markets
What determines the climate change
mitigation effect of pedelecs?
• Marginal change in electricity supply in response to demand
from pedelecs: Coal, gas or wind? Additional demand or peak
shaving?
• Marginal change in mode
choice: switch from car to
pedelecs, or additional
transport demand from
seniors?
• Marginal change in activity:
Less or additional distance
traveled?
REGULATE TRANSPORT DEMAND
AND REAP CO-BENEFITS
Our time budget for travel
is constant.
As we get richer, we travel more.
The larger question then is
how to shift from car to
(electric) bike, how to slow
down and reduce distances to
< 40km a day, but speed up
bicycles.
For longer travel, we choose faster transport.
Co-benefits/ integrated perspective
Bill. RMB
Creutzig, F. and He, D., Climate
Change Mitigation and CoBenefits of Feasible Transport
Demand Policies in Beijing
Transportation Research D 14,
120 (2009)
Creutzig, F., Thomas, A.,
Kammen, D. M., and Deakin, E.,
in Low Carbon Transport in Asia:
Capturing Climate and
Development Co-benefits, edited
by Eric Zusman, Ancha
Srinivasan, and Shobhakar
Dhakal (Earthscan, London,
2009)
Net accounting of car traffic in Beijing 2005: Costs are at least 7.7% of Beijng‘s GDP
Push policies
• Car traffic restrictions
• City toll
• Reduce available lanes
• Parking fees
• Speed limits
Land use policies
• Compact cities
• Polycentric cities
• Avoid urban sprawl
• No greenfield development
• Mixed use neighbourhoods
Pull policies
• Better public transport
• Safe space for cycling and
walking
• Prioritisation of bicycles
• Bicycle racks
Objectives
-A
-B
-C
-D
Policies
-1
-2
-3
-4
•
•
•
All policy dimensions
contribute
Providing e-bikes is not
enough  push needed
Land-use for the long-run
Source: Mühlhoff & Creutzig,
project report for Freiburg
Bottomlines
Fuel and carbon intensity
issues to be evaluated
from an integrated
systems perspective; are
still then highly uncertain
From bottom-up:
– How do electric bikes
impact modal shares?
– What are contextual
policies to shift car
drivers to pedelecs?
Price parking
Keep suburbia in check:
increase % of commuting
distance < 20 km
Make urban environment
cyclist friendly and reduce
barriers (e.g. broad streets)
Make bicycle riding
increasingly popular also for
business (status symbol thing)
Looking for PhD student
Contact:
Dr. Felix Creutzig
Group Leader, TU Berlin
www.user.tu-berlin.de/creutzig
Task:
• Model urban transport policies, co-benefit
approach
• Compare transport-land-use interaction
across cities world-wide
• Develop economic framework for slow
modes (safety; convenience; health)
Qualification:
• Love to understand details and data of
urban transport
• Experience with data analysis
• Modeling experience (e.g., excel; matlab)
Location: Berlin