Report about the meeting of the
COSMO Steering Committee (STC)
Moscow, 6 and 7 September 2010
Detlev Majewski, Head of STC
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO, before and …
Moscow, September 2010
after
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO STC Meeting, 6 and 7 Sept. 2010
Participants:
D. Majewski (Germany)
T. Charantonis (Greece)
M. Ferri (Italy)
M. Ziemianski (Poland)
R. Dumitrache (for G. Stancalie, Romania)
D. Kiktev (Russia)
P. Steiner (Switzerland)
M. Arpagaus (SPM)
For VERSUS (after lunch break) : A. Raspanti, U. Damrath, V. Stauch
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO Science Plan 2010 - 2014
• Presentation by M. Arpagaus
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO Software, additional software
 Current status; see COSMO contract
COSMO model including nudging data assimilation
Interpolation program int2lm
 Proposal by P. Steiner
Additional programs: fieldextra, VERSUS
 Requirements for COSMO-Software:
Portable, documented (internal + external), supported
 Procedures for the proposal of new COSMO-Software
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO Licence Issues, Part I
 NCMS (United Arab Emirates) signed licence agreement in July 2010
 Four more potential licence takers in the future: Brazil (INMET and DHN),
Oman, Catalunya
 Support of licence takers (see Licence Contract):
Installation of the COSMO software on customer‘s computer and second
level support (by DWD only)
Support of COSMO software for at least four years (all COSMO partners)
 How to use the licence fees?
Further development of COSMO, e.g. mutual short-term visits in the
framework of PPs, invitation of experts; external software contracts;
participation at a conference with an oral presentation about COSMO
related scientific results
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO Licence Issues, Part II
 DWD asks for 50% of the licence fees for providing support to the
customers and (usually) the initial/lateral boundary data based on
analyses/forecasts of the global model GME.
 How to apply for support funded from the licence fees?
1-page proposal to the COSMO SPM and Head of STC detailing aim of
activity, persons involved and costs forseen. SPM and STC will decide on a
propsal after consultation with the WG-Leader(s).
Moscow, September 2010
Current Users of HRM
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO model for developing countries
 Goal: Provide a medium-term perspective for current HRM users in
developing countries.
 Proposal: Provide an old cycle (question: How old?) of the COSMO
model without support to users in developing countries; see
http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/country-andlending-groups; here: Low-income economies ($995 or less) and Lowermiddle-income economies ($996 to $3,945)
 Decision of STC needed until end of 2010 because HRM has to be phased
out until 2012 (GRIB2, ICON for lateral boundary values, grid spacing of
7 km or less)
 Head of STC will prepare letter to be send to COSMO Directors.
 From developing countries viewpoint: COSMO model or WRF
(NOAA/NCAR) as replacement of HRM
Moscow, September 2010
Status of PPs; New PP: POMPA; Status of VERSUS
 STC discussed the status of all PPs and PTs
 STC agreed to extend the following PPs:
 COLOBOC (by one year)
 CONSENS (by one year)
 STC agreed to create the new PP POMPA “Performance on massively
parallel architectures”
 STC discussed the status and future development of PP VERSUS
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO and important sport events
 Sochi 2014 (Winter Olympic)
 Brazil 2014 (Soccer World Cup)
 Brazil 2016 (Summer Olympics)
 Can the COSMO Partners offer some show pieces (FDPs, RDPs) to
increase the visibility of COSMO?
 Head of STC will write a letter to the Directors of the COSMO Partners.
Moscow, September 2010
FTE 2009/2010/2011
 What to do if a COSMO member cannot provide 2 FTEs for two or even
three years?
 Head of STC will ask the President of DWD to write a letter of concern to
the Director of the COSMO Partner involved to ask for proposals of how to
alleviate the situation.
 Missing FTEs should not be due to a lack of focus at the service because of
running other regional NWP models!
Moscow, September 2010
Communication issues
 How to improve communication within STC and with Head of STC?
 Jour fixe SPM and head of STC once a month (phone call)
 Once a year Head of STC and SPM will write a short (1-2 pages) paper
about COSMO progress for Directors
Moscow, September 2010
Next COSMO-GMs
 COSMO-GM 2011 from 12 – 16 September in Rome (Italy)
 COSMO-GM 2012 from 10 – 14 September in Lugano (Switzerland)
Moscow, September 2010
Report of BRAC-Meeting 17 – 20 May 2010
Supetar, Brac Island, Croatia
D. Majewski, DWD, Head of STC
BRAC-HR
BRainstorming on Advanced Concepts on
High Resolution Modelling Workshop
NWP at scales of a few hundreds of meters to
a few kilometers
Moscow, September 2010
Background
• General Assembly of ALADIN partners 2009 in Istanbul
• Problems seen in HARMONIE/AROME integrations at
high resolutions detected by HIRLAM:
- Fireworks (precipitation, cold pools, wind gusts)
- Stability of integration
• Concerns about scalability of HARMONIE on future
massively parallel computer systems
• Strategic planning process for the next 5 – 10 years
• Two-stage process:
Brainstorming meeting in Brac in May 2010
Scientific vision workshop in early 2011
Moscow, September 2010
Known deficiencies
by Sander Tijm
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•
•
•
Daily cycle of convection
Outflow (how to verify?)
Low level clouds
Strength of convection
Moscow, September 2010
Daily cycle of convection
by Sander Tijm
Moscow, September 2010
Outflow: Temperature
Cold pools
as seen in
the 2mtemperature
Moscow, September 2010
Strength convection
by Sander Tijm
Moscow, September 2010
Impact of horizontal diffusion
by Sander Tijm
Moscow, September 2010
Future HPC challenges
• New computer architectures like multi-/many-core CPUs and
GPUs (Graphics Processing Unit like NVIDIA)
• Massively parallel computer systems with > 100.000 cores.
• Mixed OpenMP / MPI parallelization.
• Portability of numerical model to different platforms.
• Scalability of numerical model on > 10.000 cores.
• Major challenges: Load balancing (e.g. physical processes)
and efficient I/O on > 10.000 cores.
• Stability of operational runs using 100.000 cores (with a
potential small mean time between interrupts!).
Moscow, September 2010
Scalability of COSMO-EU on 512, 1024 and 2048 cores
of an IBM Blue Gene (PowerPC 450, 850 MHz)
24-h forecast; 665 x 657 gridpoints, 40 layers (852, 426, 213 gridpoints/core)
Moscow, September 2010
Workshop in Brac, Croatia
Organisers
J. F. Geleyn (ALADIN), J. Onvlee (HIRLAM), D. Klaric (RC LACE),
P. Termonia (Belgium), C. Fisher (France)
Participants
About 23 particpants from ALADIN, AROME, HIRLAM, LACE groups
and
D. Majewski (COSMO)
T. Davies (UKMO)
E. Kallen (ECMWF)
Moscow, September 2010
Organisation of BRAC-HR
Monday: Plenary with several key note lectures
Tuesday and Wednesday: Working group meetings
• WG1: Dynamical cores‘ development
• WG2: Upper air physics
• WG3: Physics – dynamics interface
• WG4: Validation and verification
• WG5: Nesting, LBC, coupling
• WG6: Surface modelling
Thursday: Reports of WGs and draft of standpoints
Moscow, September 2010
Outcome of BRAC-HR
• „Official“ 12+6 page report by the organizing committee
(probably mainly written by J. F. Geleyn) dated
20/08/2010
• This report distinguishes between:
- areas of broad consensus (6 pages)
- areas of divergence of opions (5 ½ pages)
- attempt of a synthesis for future steps (1 page)
Moscow, September 2010
Areas of broad consensus
• At high resolution, stochastic point of view more and
more important
• Increased sophistication for process description primarily
for microphysics of precipitation and cloud-determination
scheme(s)
• Some 3D-effects of radiation like slope and shadow of
clouds
• Improvements of physics-dynamics interface needed
• For verification: Radar and satellite data
• Onset of (airmass) convection is one of the most
fundamental problems to be solved
Moscow, September 2010
Areas with divergence of opinions
• Detailed priorities for the necessary evolutions of the
diagnostic – validation – verification toolkit
• Evolution or substitution of the current AROME spectral
SI/SL dycore; two extreme solutions: Spectral SI/SL vs.
gridpoint RK (like WRF, COSMO)
• Relative priority to be asigned to the dynamical core
issues (Météo France participants (F. Bouttier and C.
Lac; see also paper by P. Benard and C. Lac) argue that
the current dycore is the cause of the problems; J. F.
Geleyn and many other participants (but not the COSMO
representative) blame missing lateral mixing.
Moscow, September 2010
Summary and outlook
• Deep internal controversy between Météo France,
ALADIN and HIRLAM about the cause of the problems
of the current AROME and how to tackle them.
• To shed some light on the problem:
- Run Weisman/Klemp (1982) test with AROME and
COSMO-Model.
- Compare operational forecasts of AROME and
COSMO for common areas (Southwestern Germany,
Netherlands, Belgium).
Moscow, September 2010
Orography (m)
AROME (2.5 km)
COSMO (2.8 km)
Moscow, September 2010
Temperature (°C) at 2m and wind at 10m
12 July 2010 00 UTC +12h
AROME (2.5 km)
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO (2.8 km)
Wind gusts (km/h) at 10m
12 July 2010 00 UTC +12h
AROME (2.5 km)
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO (2.8 km)
Temperature (°C) at 2m and wind at 10m
12 July 2010 00 UTC +14h
AROME (2.5 km)
Moscow, September 2010
COSMO (2.8 km)