Our utopias are the blueprints of our future civilization, and as such, airy structures though they are, they really play a bigger part in the progress of man than our more material structures of brick and steel. Vice President Henry A. Wallace Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek. President Barack Obama Heroes are not statues framed against a red sky. They are people who say, “This is my community and it’s my responsibility to make it better.” Governor Tom McCall Activists are hell to live with, but they make great ancestors. An Oregon activist 2 Author’s Acknowledgements Many people helped with this project, and they have my sincere thanks. I thank Scott Denman Senior Program Officer at the Wallace Global Fund for his foundation’s and his own guidance and support for the project. Geoff Anderson, Executive Director of Smart Growth America took the time to thoughtfully review various draft reports, to recommend people I should consult, and to discuss and critique my ideas. The following people generously donated their time in reading and commenting on all, or major parts of the background report and the sprawl-curtailment policy packages: Dr. Gerrit-Jan Knaap, Director of the National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education at the University of Maryland, Dr. Arthur C. Nelson of the University of Utah, Professor Bob Johnston of the University of California at Davis (retired), Dr. Alvin Sokolow of the University of California at Davis (retired) Dr. Dave Theobald of Colorado State University, Professor Stuart Meck of Rutgers University, Dru Schmidt Perkins of 1000 Friends of Maryland, Terry Moore, at ECONorthwest of Eugene, Oregon, Joe Molinaro, Director, Smart Growth and Housing Opportunity,National Association of REALTORS® Managing. Several people helped me with particular research inquiries, including Renee Kuhlman at the National Trust for Historic Preservation, Tim Torma, at the United States Environmental Protection Agency, Henry Richmond at the American Land Institute, Michael Beyard, Senior Resident Fellow at the Urban Land Institute and Jim Murley, Director of the Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions at Florida Atlantic University in Fort Lauderdale. I thank the scores of state legislators, nonprofit organization staff and planners who took the time to answer questions about prospects for anti-sprawl action in their state and localities. In particular I thank Beth Humstone for special help in preparing the report for Vermont. . Dr. Stephen Frenkel of Portland State University completed the bulk of the research on European sprawl and efforts to control. Becky Steckler, AICP, wrote and edited several of them and organized and supervised the research by the research assistants. Research assistants Christina Arlt, Kate Rube, Lauren Swisston and Chris Witt conducted research on state programs and administered most of the surveys of anti-sprawl leaders and experts. Kai Tohinaka assembled research materials for some of the Rocky Mountain states. Armando Carbonell of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy allowed me access to very important unpublished research on state Smart Growth programs. Martha Gannett designed the covers, operating on both a tiny budget and very short notice. Tom McTighe stepped in at the last minute to help with technical editing and document assembly. And for all those people I should have mentioned, and who deserve my thanks in this acknowledgment, you have both my thanks and my apologies. 3 Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 5 What Has Worked ............................................................................................................... 7 Programs That Show Weak Results or No Results ........................................................... 13 Programs Without Sufficient Documentation of Results.................................................. 18 Lessons from Europe ........................................................................................................ 20 A Brief Note on the Canadian Experience ........................................................................ 26 Conclusions: Where (and When) Progress Can Be Made Next ....................................... 26 A. The Current Context: The Severe Recession Will Temporarily Halt Both Sprawl and Efforts to Reform Sprawl………………………………26 B. Some General Opportunities to Advance Anti-Sprawl Policies and Programs………………………………………………………………… 27 C. Particular Opportunities for Adoption of New Sprawl Curtailment Programs at the State Level ……………………………………………………34 4 Introduction The Subject and Scope of the Project Smart Growth America, with the support of the Wallace Global Fund, commissioned an analysis of how to stop sprawl in all fifty of the United States. Stopping sprawl achieves many Smart Growth objectives. First, it saves the farm, ranch and forestlands that provide food and fiber. Second, it protects natural resources, including wildlife and places that provide or recharge surface and ground water. Third, reducing sprawl can be realized in part by increasing the range of housing choices in our communities. Fourth, compact mixed-use urban development reduces how farm we must travel to work, or shopping or school and increases the effectiveness and reduces the user cost of providing transit. Fifth, it benefits taxpayers because compact growth reduces the cost per taxpayer of providing roads, sewers, water lines and emergency services.1 It is all of these connections between stopping sprawl and the achievement of Smart Growth objectives that made this project an appropriate undertaking for Smart Growth America. The scope of this project is very broad indeed; an analysis of the effectiveness of programs to curb sprawl in the United States and Europe, and based on that review, a determination of the prospects for adoption of effective new laws and programs to curb or stop sprawl in each of the 50 states. The Project Reports This Summary Report is one of a related set of reports. The other reports are a) the Background Report, b) State Reports (in multiple volumes), and c) a collection of some of the various reports, studies and articles used in preparing these reports. Each of those documents are briefly described below. The Background Report outlines the idea of sprawl as part of a hierarchy of development patterns, and defines sprawl curtailment as any progress in shifting development up the hierarchy. The Background Report describes different approaches to curtailing sprawl, in the U.S. and Europe, and examines the evidence regarding what has worked. The State Reports describe the programs that have been adopted in each state to curb sprawl and promote more compact growth (if any), review the available evidence about their performance and assess the prospects for improvements to existing programs and for adopting new, more effective sprawl curtailment measures. Interviews with legislators, 1 While stopping sprawl advances many Smart Growth objectives, the reverse is not necessarily true. For example, extending mass transit into the countryside is more likely to accelerate than curb sprawl. A walkable mixed use community reflects Smart Growth concepts but if it is built on a geenfield miles from the edge of any urban area, it is still a form of sprawl. 5 leaders in nonprofit organizations opposing sprawl and professional planners used to prepare the reports are appended to each state report. The last report is a digital collection of materials that have been used in the preparation of the Background Report and the States Report. These include academic research papers, abstracts of those papers, newspaper articles or excerpts of those materials, evaluations produced by state agencies or nonprofit groups, excerpts of planning documents and other information. This Summary Report is more than a distillation of the other reports. It contains analysis and recommendations based on the other two reports, that do not appear in those documents. For the sake of simplicity and clarity it omits references to sources. Those citations and a bibliography can be found in the Background Report and State Reports. Some of the referenced papers are included in the digital collection (described below.) The Summary Report presents several important conclusions regarding effective and ineffective sprawl curtailment programs, based on the review presented in the Background Report. The analysis of the effectiveness of sprawl-curtailment programs presented in the Background Report is based not only on the expert opinions of practitioners but on available research and information about actual development patterns on the ground. The Summary offers recommendations about which investments of resources would deliver the best results in stopping or slowing future sprawl. Some of these recommendations refer to opportunities in particular states, regions and localities. Other recommendations are strategic and generalized. However, because survey responses were not received from policy makers and experts in many states, it is premature to make a comprehensive high quality assessment of exactly which of the effective sprawl curtailment laws and programs could be adopted, if any, by each one of the fifty states. Alternatively, Smart Growth America and the Wallace Global Fund may decide to focus the remainder of the project on next steps to increase the number of places and people protected from sprawl through the adoption, improvement and better enforcement of effective anti-sprawl programs. 6 What Has Worked Urban Growth Boundaries Combined with Intensification of Urban Development Inside of Them and Rural Conservation through Regulation and/or Acquisitions and Easements Outside the Boundaries2 Leading Examples at State Level: Leading Regional & Local Examples: Oregon, Washington Lexington-Fayette County, KY, Baltimore County, MD, Lancaster County, PA, Ventura County, CA, Boulder, CO Research conducted for this project shows that several places in the United States have stopped or sharply curtailed sprawl in all its forms. These programs have stopped sprawl in the form of leapfrogging subdivisions in the countryside. They have stopped the building of malls and commercial strip development on the farmland, rangelands and forestlands that provide our food and fiber, and in the natural areas needed for water and wildlife. They have succeeded in increasing, instead of decreasing, residential densities in cities and suburbs, by methods that increase choices in housing, including increased opportunities for families of modest means. This increased density also makes the provision of public transit more feasible, by increasing the number of transit riders living near transit. More compact growth patterns also reduce driving per capita because housing, shopping and jobs are closer together. It also means lower burdens for taxpayers because less money must be spent for new roads, new pipes and new school buses if development is more compact. These programs have significantly increased the share of growth that is accommodated by restoring and redeveloping instead of abandoning downtowns and neighborhoods, which is good news for residents of those neighborhoods. In addition, many of these programs have sharply slowed the amount of rural sprawl that takes the form of country estates and ranchettes on 10, 40 or 160 acres (which is sometimes referred to as “exurban sprawl.”). That has benefits for farmers, ranchers and people and companies who grow trees, by keeping land available and affordable for their businesses. It is also a benefit for wildlife and water quality and quantity. None of these programs have completely stopped all forms of sprawl. 2 The references for the data presented here and the research supporting the conclusions are included in the Background Report and the individual state reports. 7 None of them have stopped all rural homesite development. None of them have succeeded in transforming all greenfield development into compact, mixed use development. And certainly, none of them have met all the demand for additional homes and jobs entirely by redevelopment and infill. But several of these programs have very significantly curbed these forms of sprawl and increased the density of new urban development and the rate of redevelopment. If these programs were adopted and applied across all of America, our future would be dramatically better. Furthermore, contrary to a common belief in planning policy circles, these urban containment/urban densification and redevelopment/rural conservation programs are not confined to liberal states. Anti-sprawl programs have been adopted at the state, regional and local levels in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawai’i, Kentucky, Maryland, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota and Washington. Here are some examples of efforts of this type that have been successful in stopping sprawl: Seattle Metropolitan Area and Central Puget Sound Region, Washington King County, Washington, has a population of 1.8 million (about the same as Nebraska) and is 2,134 square miles in size, larger than the state of Delaware. Between 2001 and 2006, about 63,000 new homes were approved in the county. Over 95% of them were located within the 460 square miles designated as urban growth areas. In the high growth counties of central Puget Sound, including King County, the densities for built single family residential developments in the five counties increased from a range in 2002 of 3.8 to 5.0 units per acre, to 5.4 to 7.2 units per acre in 2007, roughly a 40% increase in density in five years. Multifamily densities increased from a range of 3.4 to 22.0 units per acre in 2002, to 14.2 to 37.9 units per acre in 2007 that is, roughly doubling in density. Between 2000 and 2008, every one of Washington State’s six largest cities (five central cities, one suburban) all experienced population growth attributable to infill, redevelopment and resettlement (not annexation), ranging from 3.7% to 11.9%. Baltimore County, Maryland Baltimore County, (which does not include the city of Baltimore) comprises 598.59 square miles. In 2006 the county was home to an estimated 787,384 people (more people than live in Wyoming), an increase of 33,000 since 2000. It established an Urban Rural Demarcation Line in 1967, which has changed very little. Today the URDL encompasses one third of the County’s land area and is home to 89% of its population. About one-half of the County (roughly 300 square miles) is zoned for Resource Conservation, most of it 8 with lot sizes of 50 acres. Within this area, 57,000 acres is permanently protected through conservation easements and other means. Lexington & Fayette County, Kentucky Lexington (2006 estimated population 270,789) is part of a consolidated urban government with Fayette County, created by merger in 1974. The city-county comprises 285 square miles. The city and county jointly adopted an urban growth boundary in 1958; today 85 square miles is inside the boundary (30% of the county land area), with 200 square miles (705) outside the boundary. The horse and former tobacco farms outside the urban growth boundary have been protected by 50-acre minimum lot size zoning and more than 10,000 acres has been preserved by easements. Inside the urban growth boundary, which has been only reluctantly expanded, the downtown has revitalized, including the construction of mid-rise and high-rise condominium developments. Boulder Colorado The “blue line” limiting development to the west was adopted in 1959 and the boundary around the eastern part of the city was added shortly thereafter. Several years later the residents voted to enact a sales tax to buy open space around the city. Today there are 40,000 acres of protected lands around the city. Boulder has experienced substantial downtown redevelopment, in part because the planning program requires one-third of new housing to be located downtown. Portland, Oregon Metropolitan Area The Oregon portion of the Portland metropolitan region is made up of three counties with combined populations of about 1.6 million – more populous than New Hampshire. The region has a land area of slightly more than 3,000 square miles (one-third the size of New Jersey.) About 400 square miles (13% of the total area) are located inside the Portland urban growth boundary (UGB) and another, roughly 50 square miles, are inside the UGBs of other small cities in the counties. Another 130 square miles or so are rural residential zoned areas. The remainder, roughly 2,600 square miles, are in farm, forest or mixed farm-forest zones. During the 10.75 years beginning on January 1, 1998, 96% of the residential development permits were located inside urban growth boundaries in the county, 90% in the Portland metropolitan urban growth boundary. Two percent of the homes were built in rural residential zones (generally 1 to 10 acre lots) and 2% were built in sites in farm or forest zones. The average undeveloped lot size for a single-family home in the Portland metropolitan urban growth boundary has fallen from almost 13,000 square feet in 1978 to about 5,000 square feet in 2001. Much of the central city of Portland has experienced revitalization in 9 the last twenty years. In the last decade, about 6,000 new housing units were built on less than 100 acres that make up the Pearl District, in a former warehouse district. Oregon Statewide Farm and Forest Zoning About 16.4 million acres of private land in Oregon are in the Exclusive Farm Use zones contained in statute and mandated by the state planning program. EFU zoning prohibits urban uses like residential subdivision, shopping malls or office parks. That acreage is about 25,600 square miles, an area five times the size of Connecticut and three times the size of Maryland. In the eleven years from 1997 to 2007 (inclusive) local governments approved 6,485 new homes on the 16.4 million acres in Exclusive Farm Use zones, about one home for every four square miles. About 8.7 million acres of private land in Oregon are in exclusive forest zoning, which has similar restrictions on development to EFU zoning. That acreage is about 13,600 square miles, roughly the land area of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. In the eleven years from 1997 through 2007, 5,016 dwellings were approved in forest zones, about one every 2.7 square miles. During this period, Oregon’s population grew by 431,239 people. That population increase required about 172,500 new homes (assuming 2.5 residents per home.). Of the estimated 172,500 new homes that were built, 6.6% were built in farm and forest zones. During those years 44,563 acres were added to various urban growth boundaries around the state to accommodate the vast majority3 of the 431,239 new residents of Oregon. Out of the total acreage added to UGBs, 14,480 acres (33%) were added from exclusive farm use zones and 3,390 acres (9%)from forest zones. Lancaster County, Pennsylvania Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is 949 square miles in size (about the size of Rhode Island). It experienced a 5.1% growth rate in the 2000-2006 period, and in 2006 it had an estimated population of 494,486. During 1994–2002, 76% of all residential units were developed inside its urban growth boundaries (13 Urban Growth Areas and 26 Village Growth Areas.) The county protected about 36% of its total land area through regulation and the purchase of title and easements, and a higher proportion of its rural lands. Ventura County, California, 1996 In 2006, Ventura County, California had an estimated population of 799,796 – more than Vermont and four other states. Its population increased by about 46,000 (6.2%) between 3 As noted in the prior section, 96% of the new homes in the Portlland metropolitan area in a slightly different 10.75 year period, were for locations inside urban growth boundaries. That kind of data is not available for the entire state. The calculation of the share of total dwellings in farm and forest zones statewide, shows that areas outside the Portland metropolitan area, had more of their growth outside UGBs. But overall it is safe to say that the vast majority of growth was inside UGBs. 10 2000 and 2006. The County is 1,845 square miles in area, about the size of Delaware. Twenty-six percent (230 square miles) of the county’s non-federal lands are within the County’s nine growth boundaries (plus the city limits of the Port of Hueneme and the Ojai area.) Those growth boundaries absorbed 89% of the population growth from 1986 to 2000. During that period, the densities of new developments inside the growth boundaries rose steadily until they reached an average of 10.4 people per square mile in the 1996-2000 period, a 39% increase from the 7.54 people per square mile average in urban areas in 1986. Today, more than 12 million Americans live inside urban growth boundaries, in states and regions that are working to stop sprawl using a multi-faceted approach that has the following components: A boundary to mark the limits to urban development, adopted and implemented through binding comprehensive plans and consistent land use regulations and maps that are unambiguous. The boundary is also used to limit the extension of urban services and facilities, (urban highways, sewers, and water lines). Land use regulations (zoning), or the purchase of land or development rights, or a combination of the two methods, are used to conserve the farmlands, forests, rangelands and natural areas outside the urban boundary. Strong efforts to increase the density of new development inside the urban boundary, especially residential development, and to promote infill and redevelopment through changes to zoning to allow more dense development, targeted infrastructure investments and private sector incentives such as tax breaks or subsidies. A government body that has the legal authority to take and compel action, exercises that authority and has the funds to pay for the work and defray the costs of compliance by local governments. In some cases, the courts or a specialized land use review tribunal play an important role in the proper implementation of the program. A strong civic infrastructure of nonprofit groups and civic institutions that monitor, enforce and defend the program during the frequent periods when political will falters or political attention is focused elsewhere. However, other states and localities that have adopted the same program, or what appears to be the same program, have achieved only modest success in stopping sprawl. Examples of urban boundaries and densification coupled with rural conservation efforts that have not performed very well at stopping sprawl include some urban and rural areas in Oregon and Washington and regional efforts in Miami-Dade County and Orlando, Florida. (The land conservation aspect of the effort in the Orlando region has, by contrast, had some measurable success.) 11 There are five explanations for poor performance. First, programs that seem superficially the same, are in fact far different in their legal content and administrative details: A mandatory requirement for one state or locality is drafted in advisory language in another; strong, formal, state oversight in one state is only a weak administrative review process in another; “conservation zoning” in one place means 160-acre land division standards and farm income tests for dwellings in one state, and is 5-acre lots somewhere else (Miami-Dade County). But the variation between places using similar approaches cannot be explained solely by the differences in the legal framework for the program, because even when this system is applied at the state level, there is wide variation in the quality of outcomes at the local level (e.g., the difference in performance between neighboring King and Pierce Counties in Washington.) The same is true for national anti-sprawl programs in Europe. The answer is simple: Weak laws will not stop sprawl, but strong laws will not stop sprawl either, unless they are conscientiously implemented and administered in the face of indifference or opposition. This simple point is often acknowledged in passing but is rarely treated with the seriousness it deserves when designing or supporting sprawl curtailment programs. This is the second reason for poor performance. The third reason is the absence of groups outside government that monitor and enforce the anti-sprawl program. The endless and detailed work of staff in nonprofit organizations who review and critique local plans and proposals, who attend hearings, who challenge state and local government decisions in court and who rally around the programs when they are threatened by elected officials or ballot measures makes a tremendous difference in the quality of outcomes. There is a fourth problem with performance for anti-sprawl efforts of this type that are limited to areas so small that they displace some development and sprawl to new locations. However, allegations that such programs have no net effect because they stop growth in one place and replace it with sprawl elsewhere do not bear examination. As the statistics on population growth presented in the summary of programs above showed, many of the areas with these programs have continued to grow at the same pace as they did before the program. Finally, it is very important to recognize that these programs are not static, they evolve. Sometimes that evolution is a weakening of the program, but in many other cases it is a strengthening. Notable examples of the evolution toward stronger sprawl curtailment and urban densification efforts include the city of Charleston, South Carolina, LexingtonFayette, Kentucky and Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. 12 Natural Resource and Land Conservation Programs that Block Sprawl into Rural Areas at a Landscape Scale Some other approaches to curtailing sprawl have had some landscape-level (versus strictly local) impact. These approaches are: Sprawl curtailment efforts using the purchase and transfer of development rights in New Jersey’s Pinelands, Highlands and Meadowlands (which contain almost a third of that state’s lands).4 A few land conservation programs using purchase and conservation easement programs (including those paid for through tax credits) that have, or may in the future, preserve a significant share of a state or large area. These include Vermont (which has about 20% of its lands protected) and the seven-county Orlando metropolitan area (about 35% of the lands protected). In Virginia there may be enough concentrated investment in conservation (combined with some local land use regulation) in areas susceptible to sprawl to constitute an effective landscape-level anti-sprawl program. Local rural land protections through zoning, in parts of California and Montana. Programs That Show Weak Results or No Results Experience in the United States has shown that most statewide efforts adopted with the aim (or at least the hope) of stopping sprawl (in its various forms) have had weak results. In some cases they seem to have had no impact at all. This harsh assessment is difficult to present given that many dedicated individuals in government and the nonprofit sector have worked hard for decades trying to stop or slow sprawl by working to adopt, implement and improve these programs. The results do not reflect upon their hard work, but rather upon the strong political forces that have thwarted their efforts. In some instances, it is these anti-sprawl crusaders who have offered the harshest critiques of their state’s performance and sharpest diagnosis of the reasons for failure. States with effective programs to control sprawl (e.g., Oregon, Washington, parts of New Jersey and Vermont) are sometimes also listed as examples of states that have adopted 4 Other state efforts to protect and preserve from sprawl areas of special natural resource value or beauty have had very little or no apparent effect. One example of such a failure are efforts to protect Chesapeake Bay shorelands in Virginia. Another notable failure can be found in Oregon. The state legislation provides for the designation of areas of “critical statewide concern” but none have ever been designated despite the legislation’s drafters clear intention that the Oregon Coast and Columbia Gorge would be considered for such designations. 13 ineffective programs. They are listed because even in states with effective programs, there are aspects of their sprawl-curtailment effort that are ineffective. These programs are ineffective in those states for the same reason they are ineffective elsewhere. State-Authorized and State -Mandated Comprehensive Land Use Planning for Local Governments (Without Substantive Anti-Sprawl Elements) Leading Examples: Other Examples: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Virginia California, Vermont There has been, and there remains, a widespread belief that if local governments are invited, or directed, to adopt comprehensive land use plans the result will be less sprawl. In many states, state legislation mandating comprehensive planning also specifies the topics to be addressed, for example, a “housing element” or a “land use element” and a “conservation element.” (The states with effective sprawl curtailment programs also mandate comprehensive planning and land use regulation but carry it much farther by establishing strict objectives, and support it with a strong state oversight role.) National Resources Inventory information and more specialized research on development patterns in some of these states show no diminution in the rate of sprawl (unless there is some other state or local program in effect.) Authorizing, encouraging and mandating the adoption of comprehensive plans – without any further requirements – has not (and will never) stop sprawl, for a number of reasons. First, “planning” is content neutral; unless the goal is to stop sprawl and regulations are in place, then planning in itself will not accomplish that objective. In those states where plans are purely advisory and not integrated with implementing zoning (and other regulations), the requirement of drafting and adopting plans is a waste of public resources. Secondly, in many of these states, the state’s authority to review and require changes to local plans and the regulations to carry out state goals is either weak (e.g., New Jersey) or non-existent (e.g., Minnesota.) In other cases, where the state has much more authority in statute, it has failed to exercise that authority consistently and vigorously, either in reviewing the plans at the time of adoption or in monitoring amendments that may weaken the plan (e.g., Florida, Vermont.) Third, even when the state has the authority and uses it, the degree of rigor in the oversight and in quality control over the local plans, especially those proposed by local governments opposed to the planning goals, can be inadequate. For example, failure to require changes to even one or two words in a key provision (governing variances or nonconforming uses) can have landscape-wide consequences. 14 Efforts to Curb Sprawl through State Plans and/or Coordination and Direction of State Agency Programs Leading Examples: Other Examples: Arizona, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island Massachusetts, Oregon, Vermont Some states have passed legislation requiring the adoption of a state land-use plan. The plan is adopted by and structured around the work of state agencies. This approach typically targets state infrastructure funds (described below), but is intended to have broader impact by including the full range of regulatory, taxation, investment and incentives efforts by every department from agricultural to water resources and everything in between: education, environment, housing, revenue, transportation, and so forth. Statewide land-use plans are drawn made up of policy statements and implementation actions assigned to each agency. A weaker version of this approach is often called state agency coordination. In those states, state legislation requires state agency actions to be reviewed and revised to conform to state policies on land development patterns, without the existence of a state plan. In some instances (e.g., Oregon and Vermont) the agency plans are also supposed to be consistent with local comprehensive plans. A still weaker form is the creation of a “Smart Growth Cabinet” in which informal interagency cooperation intended to deliver Smart Growth outcomes is promoted by the Governor. There are many examples of particular development projects that have been facilitated by state agency planning and coordination efforts. In Vermont detailed evaluations have been made of a spectrum of agency decisions and the results are mixed at best. A stateto-state comparison of development patterns at the state level in Florida, Maryland and New Jersey with comparable states finds no evidence that these state land-use plans and state agency coordination have resulted in more compact urban development or slowed the wave of suburban and exurban development. Some reasons for this failure are: (1) The state plan was never adopted (e.g., Maryland, to date); (2) The state plan is advisory only; (3) The state agencies conformance to state policies was thwarted by state agency resistance, which turned compliance into a paper exercise focused on process (e.g., Oregon and Vermont); (4) Even if all state agency actions were coordinated and made to execute state antisprawl policies, their combined effect would still be far weaker than the impact of the decisions made by local governments. 15 Targeting state infrastructure investments away from sprawl and toward existing urban areas and new Smart Growth projects by legislative and executive action Leading Examples: Other Examples: Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, Utah, Vermont A common approach to curbing sprawl is for the governor or the state legislature to adopt state policy or state laws to focus its investments in infrastructure (roads, transit lines, sewer and water lines, treatment facilities, etc.) in ways intended to stimulate the redevelopment of existing, decayed urban areas and to promote more compact forms of new development. In several states, including Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey, the areas to receive priority for state funding are mapped. (In Maryland they are called Priority Funding Areas, “PFAs”.) In Vermont, the targets for state infrastructure funding are downtowns, village centers and a recently added category, “urban growth centers.”5 The most limited version of this approach is when governors issue executive orders directing that new state facilities be built in downtown locations. By and large these efforts may have helped revitalize some urban areas,6 but their impacts on sprawling suburban and exurban development appear to have been very modest. The reasons for this failure to deliver strong results include: (1) The pre-existence of scattered development, an adequate road network and on-site water supplies and septic systems allows substantial new development to proceed without major infrastructure investments, a common situation in much of the Northeast; (2) In many states, the state’s role in providing infrastructure, compared to local governments’ role, is modest; (3) The exemption or grandfathering-in of certain infrastructure investments, particularly highways; (4) Weak legal authority and administrative structure and finance for the program; (5) Lax or absent enforcement of the requirements by government; 5 The mapping of these urban growth centers may have created some confusion about the nature of that mapping. The map in Bennington Vermont’s comprehensive plan shows an “Urban Growth Center Boundary.” This is a map of one of the three types of urban development areas, downtown, village and urban growth centers; it is not a map of an urban growth boundary for the whole urban area. 6 See the discussion of urban revitalization programs below. 16 (6) No legal opportunity for interest groups outside government to enforce the program, or a decision not to spend resources on this effort; (7) The program was initiated through executive action by a particular governor, and it is not sustained by the governor’s successor(s). This is evident in Maryland and Massachusetts and may come about in Arizona. State Permitting Oversight Leading Examples: California (partial), Florida, Vermont Although local governments have the most authority over development permits, in many states, certain kinds of permits require state review. Often these permits must be reviewed under a state Environmental Protection Act. Following the adoption of the federal National Environmental Protection Act many states adopted state versions, State Environmental Protection Acts. Other states, like Florida and Vermont, created a new state level of review of big projects, outside of their SEPA. The types of projects which are subject to this review are sometimes referred to as “Developments of Regional Impact.” Vermont’s Act 250 included state and regional review of developments of regional impact as part of that state’s planning efforts. While it has been useful in stopping particular projects, experts from that state agree that it has not, and could not, work to stop sprawl, since so many developments fall below the threshold for review. Almost from the beginning, critics of NEPA and the SEPAs recognized that the focus on particular sites and projects did not lend itself to a long-term and landscape-scale focus. (In fact, some critics of sprawl agree with development interests that SEPA’s permitting requirements are being used to stymie more compact urban development patterns.) This project did not find any research that demonstrated that review of permits for DRIs had curbed sprawl.7 State-Level Land Conservation by Public and Private Purchase of Land or Development Rights (including through Tax Credits) Leading Examples: Other Examples: Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland California, Rhode Island 7 A possible exception to the failure of state permitting oversight may be the work done by the California Coastal Conservation Commission, as part of California’s Coastal Zone Management Act implementation. 17 The prior section described the success of New Jersey’s efforts to protect almost one third of the state from sprawl, through the Pinelands and Highlands conservation management programs. Vermont’s achievement in protecting about one-fifth of its land was also noted. But for most states, even very substantial amounts of public investment in conservation are not succeeding in stoping sprawl. Florida has been spending $300 million per year to buy land for conservation purposes. Between 1990 and 2000 it protected about one million acres and since 2001 it has protected about 650,000 acres. After 20 years of both public and private investment in conservation easements and acquisitions in Vermont, about 430,000 acres of farm and forestlands and natural areas have been protected. In Colorado, increasing the maximum allowable tax credits for conservation easements, and the authorizing third-party transfers of the credits had increased the rate of easement protections to as much as 50,000 to 100,000 acres per year in recent years. (There was a similar acceleration in conservation easements in Virginia at the same time for the same reasons.) But the sites are scattered and many appear to be in areas not threatened by sprawl. Public funds and tax credits will never be able to protect more than a modest percentage of rural areas in the vast majority of states. For example, after spending $2.5 billion ($300 million per year) Florida’s Florida Forever campaign has protected about 2% of the state’s rural land area. At that rate it will take a century to protect one-quarter of Florida’s remaining rural lands. As for tax credits, even if 100,000 acres were protected every year for the next 50 years, the end result would be the protection of less than 8,000 square miles: That is about 8% of the land area of Colorado and 20% of Virginia. In addition, it appears that very few of these investments in conservation have been used strategically to shape growth patterns.8 Programs Without Sufficient Documentation of Results Hawai’i Statewide Program Hawai’i adopted its statewide Land Use Law in 1961. The four-part zoning of the islands (urban, rural residential, agriculture and natural resources) remained remarkably stable over the first quarter-century of the program (1964-1987). The amount of land in the conservation zones dropped only about 1%, from 97% to 96% during a period of rapid growth. Today observers of development in the state regard the Land Use Law as 8 One example of where that has been done is Swanton, Vermont where the conserved lands have effectively created an urban growth boundary. 18 ineffective in the face of powerful development pressures. Certainly there has been massive resort development along coastal areas in Maui. But as of the date of this report, the author has not found a comprehensive evaluation of the program. Urban Revitalization Programs There are many states and probably hundreds of cities that have adopted programs to promote the revitalization and redevelopment of downtowns or declining neighborhoods, or entire cities. The techniques for accomplishing these results include historic preservation and affordable housing tax credit programs; property tax relief or abatements; regulatory relaxation of restraints on development; targeted investments in public amenities, schools or transit; special enterprise zones; increased law enforcement; brownfield clean-up programs; cleaning up waterways; community development corporations; and marketing. So far, the author has found no studies that document an impact on the rate or volume of redevelopment (or any corresponding reduction in sprawl) caused by these government interventions. Part of the reason for this lack of evidence is that urban development and redevelopment is powerfully affected by other forces, including the changes in household wealth, age and composition, changing attitudes toward race and national shifts in preferences for housing types and locations. Conversations with experts and visits to various communities suggest that that the range of government interventions – tax incentives, building public amenities, increasing public safety, testing markets – has shaped the pace and location of urban redevelopment in many communities where the market was ready. How much this revitalization has resulted in a reduction in different types of sprawl must be left for speculation. Coastal Zone Management Act implementation in California The California Coastal Zone Management Act appears to be the most active and aggressively managed of the Coastal Zone Management Program. This report was prepared before there was time to examine studies of its performance. Climate Change & Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets and Strategies Leading Example: California (AB 32, SB 375) In 2006 the California legislature passed the California Global Warming Solutions Act, Assembly Bill 32. AB 32 established goals and deadlines for reducing its emissions of greenhouse gases. Since then, many other states have adopted similar goals for greenhouse gas reductions. In 2008, California followed up on AB 32 with Senate Bill 375, which created a process and created additional authority for achieving the targets in AB 32. 19 Several states can be expected to adopt some kind of greenhouse gas reduction program, laws or plans in the next few years and will undoubtedly look to the California model. Obviously no analysis of the impact on SB 375 on sprawl is possible yet. However, elements of the legislation and expert opinion suggest that its impact on sprawl will be primarily determined by Metropolitan Planning Organizations and local governments’ discretion in developing Sustainable Community Plans or Alternative Plans, rather than the state law itself. Why? First, SB 375 expressly exempts local government land-use plans from complying with the Sustainable Communities Plans or the Alternative Plans. Second, certain transportation projects programmed for funding on or before December 31, 2011, are exempted from compliance. Third, the California Air Resources Board’s review of the MPOs’ Sustainable Community Plans and Alternative Plans is very narrow. The CARB can only accept or reject the MPOs’ determinations that the plans will achieve the greenhouse gas reduction goals; the CARB does not approve the Sustainable Community Plans or the Alternate Plans. By the terms of SB 375, the California Air Resource Boardt may not require, or even suggest, that the MPO make changes to those plans. There are two reasons why SB 375 might help to reduce sprawl. This legislation will build on the Blueprint program to integrate land use and transportation planning. Advocacy groups will pressure local governments to do what the SB 375 does not require them to do: modify their comprehensive plans and regulations to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction targets that require more dense development and more redevelopment. Various elements in SB 375 are intended to make it easier to build more dense housing, including requiring minimum density standards and revisions to the permitting standards under the California Environmental Quality Act. This may result in increased residential densities. Lessons from Europe Sprawl Arrives in Europe Until the last few decades, sprawl was considered largely a North American phenomenon. Europe provided many shining examples of affluent nations without sprawl. Even today, when Americans think of Europe, they think of “tourist” Europe – dense, quaint, walkable cities, great mass transit, and a populous that eschews cars for bikes. 20 In the last half century sprawl has afflicted large areas of Western Europe. Despite slow growth the cities have expanded outward. Fueled by affluence, increasing rates of car ownership, decreasing transit ridership, rising city center land costs, deindustrialization, and a growing number of second homes, it is no wonder Europe’s urban areas have sprawled. European sprawl takes different forms. In Tuscany, clusters of new red-tile roofed homes and even malls at highway interchanges can be observed outside Perugia. On the Mediterranean coast of Spain, formerly poor areas are being blanketed with resort development serving affluent Europeans. In the exurbs of Stockholm, thousands of summer homes have been transformed into permanent residences creating daily traffic headaches on old country roads. In the Netherlands, new towns have sprouted up along canals. In Switzerland and Germany, big box retail can be found at many freeway interchanges. As Ireland (finally) moved from poverty to affluence, its countryside was overrun with rural estates.9 There are regional as well as national differences. As a number of studies point out, in the north and west (Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, the U.K.) cities are more sprawling to begin with, and the strong anti-urban bias mean that when “faced with a choice between the country and a compact city, people will overwhelmingly choose the country. It’s an almost elemental phenomenon – like wind flowing from a high-pressure to a low-pressure area” (English Green Cities, 2003). A study of twenty-four urban areas from all parts of Europe, from Dublin to Istanbul, and Palermo to Helsinki, showed that in twelve of those areas, 90% or more of new housing built since the mid-1950s was in low-density areas; the five cities that had more than half of their new housing in dense areas were all in southern or central Europe..10 By contrast, in Southern and Eastern Europe there has been a significant urban culture. While cities in Italy or Spain have grown rapidly, they have maintained greater levels of urban density and, while sprawling, the sprawl is more contiguous than in Northern Europe. Whether or not this cultural explanation is correct, the data show that Northern European versions of sprawl are more similar to the U.S. than that of Southern Europe. Despite regional differences, the overall trend is unmistakable: In 50 years, while the population of Europe has increased 33 %, the average urban footprint has increased by 78%, a ratio of urban development to population growth that is comparable to many US regions. In the last decade, an area the size of Luxembourg has been developed. 9 In Italy, I believe the falling population is actually a cause of sprawl; less money to be spent on children frees up more money to be spent on land and buildings. 10 European Environmental Agency, Urban Sprawl in Europe 2006 page 11. The source for the data is from MOLAND (Monitoring Land Use Dynamics Database) 21 Although European sprawl may, in some cases, be higher density and more mixed use than in the US, it increasingly resembles US sprawl; auto-oriented retail and commercial landscapes combined with new housing encroaching on formerly rural agricultural areas and quintessential small towns. This new pattern of sprawling development has led to a general outcry and has caught the attention of European Union parliamentarians. The EU, while lacking the legal basis to regulate sprawl (by law the EU does not make decisions normally the responsibility of national, regional or local governments), has been instrumental in bringing the issue to the attention of national and regional policy makers throughout Europe. Through regular reports, study commissions and planning funding promoting compact cities, the EU actively encourages local governments to take action. European Strategies for Countering Sprawl On the surface, Northern and Western European countries have taken a number of very similar steps: some version of an integrated approach to planning involving three primary components. Southern and Eastern Europe have used these approaches in a more haphazard manner. Development Plans: Taking advantage of a tradition of planning, most countries have attempted to control sprawl through the long-term use of sub-regional scale plans that limit development and are strictly adhered to over a long period of time. Such plans are quite widespread particularly where national or regional governments are able to impose guidelines on local authorities. This is the case via planning guidance in the U.K., planning policy documents in the Netherlands and strategic development policies in Germany. Limiting Urban Development with Greenbelts and No-Go Areas: Another key factor in policy is to define “no-go areas,” which represent the outward limit of development. The classic measure to achieve this objective is the green belt. The creation of regional parks or urban fringe forests can achieve the same effect. Densification: Densification of built-up areas is a third key element in many anti-sprawl programs. It is part of a strategy to create compact cities and revitalize city centers. On paper at least, this approach is common in Germany, the U.K. and Austria. The Dutch government has encouraged compact cities for more than 30 years. Over the past 10 years it has subsidized 250,000 new homes in already urbanized and brownfield locations. However, it has also subsidized 250,000 in greenfield locations as well, although these new developments feature compact development. In England, compact city efforts have focused on reclaiming brownfields in the economically depressed North, as a way to add to density and enhance the local economy. And even when urban areas failed to meet plan-defined density targets (and 22 most failed), there has been an appreciable increase in the “compactness” of cities throughout Europe. Performance of European Anti-Sprawl Strategies Most countries and regions in Europe have strong and well-written plans, to promote densification and compact cites, and limit growth in sensitive zones. There is also no question that many of these plans and policies have been successful. Without them sprawl undoubtedly would have been worse – a contention borne out by a handful of studies funded by the EU. These studies indicate that anti-sprawl efforts have been relatively effective in Western and Northern Europe, and to a lesser degree in Eastern Europe (less effective because central planning during the socialist era was focused on industrialization above all). However the devil is in the details. Variation between places’ success using similar approaches (the three-part strategy described above) cannot be explained by the differences in the legal framework. Even when planning and programs are applied at the state level, there is wide variation in the quality of outcomes at the local level. It turns out success is less a matter of having the right plan, and more of managing the contextual issues. The most successful anti-sprawl efforts have a number of common elements. Regional Urban Planning: The most successful plans are ones that encompass more than a single city, but instead focus on functional regions. They must be sufficiently large and encompass the whole of an urban region and be able to resolve conflicting demands for development. Integrated Plans: Despite having the greatest population pressure of any place in Europe, the Netherlands has been relatively successful because its compact city plans were integrated into larger regional plans aimed at protecting the “green heart” of the country. This integration allowed for there to be a unified set of anti-sprawl efforts. Policy Coherence: While many plans are regional, national planning units are essential for dealing with internal contradictions and creating policy coherence. The most successful plans are the ones coordinated by a single agency. Consensus: A number of commentators point to the success of Dutch planning and attributed some of this to a consensus approach. Even when there is less than full agreement, success only comes when the opposition is comparatively muted. This is consistent with the American experience in which strong (and successful) opposition to the implementation anti-sprawl program is reflected in sprawling patterns of development. But in America most effective anti-sprawl programs are characterized by conflict over their adoption and implementation, not consensus. In fact, the ideal of 23 consensus has been used to block the adoption of effective anti-sprawl plans and regulations. Regional or Federal Financial Support: Local governments are most supportive of national and regional planning when it is in their financial self-interest. Likewise, selective housing subsidies such as in the Netherlands lead to widespread support. In other words, money talks. Responsiveness to Local and Regional Conditions: Despite relatively small distances, internal national differences can be great. Successful plans are the ones that recognize the realities of political fragmentation, ethnic diversity and different urban histories. For example, planning in the north of England (in cities such as Liverpool) works because there is recognition of the major economic differences from well-off London and its hinterland. Using the Market: A number of European countries have recently adopted more freemarket (neo-liberal) approaches to governance. Plans have had to adapt to realities of public-private partnerships. The successful ones (the Netherlands and Sweden especially) have worked hard to take into account market forces. Factors Compromising Performance of Anti-Sprawl Measures in Europe Although there have been successes, anti-sprawl policies stumble on a number of issues. Most of these issues are ones that require an understanding of the individual circumstance. Fragmented Political Units: The nested governmental structure (European Union, multiple nations each with their own relation to regional planning units and multiple municipalities) makes certain large-scale planning efforts difficult. Even differences within nations lead to political challenges (East Germany and West Germany, Urban SE England and Deindustrializing Northern England). Boundary Issues: In a number of urban regions, national boundaries offer escape valves for excess population and consequently defeat attempts at true anti-sprawl efforts. For example, thousands of Copenhagen’s workers commute daily to lower-cost housing in nearby Sweden, effectively displacing sprawl to another country. Competing Tax Policies: When a locality derives much of its revenue from local development-related taxes, their will to enforce regional plans may be at odds with their own success. This is true in both Sweden and Germany where local governments derive much of their funding from local property taxes and fees. By contrast, it is easier for national planners to gain support of Dutch local governments that receive 70 to 80% of their funding directly from the national government. As one author puts it, “the ‘golden strings’ give central government an overwhelming power over 24 local government. Provinces and municipalities tend to act as loyal agents of central government” (van der Valk 205, 2002, The Dutch Planning Experience). Local Factors: Given the deep history associated with place, local factors are extremely important. In the Sweden for example, and especially in the Stockholm area, more than 20% of families own second homes, and have for a long time. As a result, Swedes may be both residents of compact cities and contributors to sprawling suburbs. Anti-Urban Bias: Much as in the United States, the dream of a rural lifestyle is common, whether it be in the English countryside or on the Swedish farm. For that reason, arguments for compact cities consistently tilt against public opinion. And, as Dutch planners have found, creating new towns in rural settings, albeit on transit routes, is an easier sell than getting people to live in urban centers. Affluence: Western Europe is now the wealthiest region in the world. Although affluence can be expressed in many different ways in both Europe and the United States it has been expressed in the form of using more land per person – bigger homes on bigger lots, more second homes or recreational housing and development. Of course using more land per capita also imposes more costs in time, money and natural resources, as well. There are other ways of enjoying affluence, such as increased leisure, rather than increased consumption, that yield more happiness. Europe’s Lessons for the United States Forty years ago American critics of U.S. sprawl looked to the United Kingdom and Europe for answers. There was a certain naiveté and romanticism in their belief that urban planning traditions, centralized governments or cultural values around urbanism, farms and forests – things they assumed could not be replicated in the U.S. – would explain both the absence of sprawl in Europe and Americans’ failure to stop it. The new European sprawl provides confirmation for the belief that sprawl is a result of policy and market preferences, not some kind of deeper cultural differences. Some of the romantic myths have dissipated and the picture is clearer and the differences seem much smaller. Both the U.S. and Europe have been afflicted with sprawl, spurred by affluence, enabled by automobiles and expressways, and in some places, grounded in anti-urban bias. Both places find the same simple solutions: define limits to urban growth, promote densification inside the line and protect the lands and resources outside the line. Europe makes more of an effort to stop sprawl, does a better job and has less sprawl to correct. But today, at least parts of the United States have discovered the same formula for success. 25 A Brief Note on the Canadian Experience Recent European sprawl has provided one challenge to the cultural explanation of American sprawl. Another challenge to that explanation is found in the development patterns in Canada. Canada has very similar economic arrangements, shares English legal and constitutional traditions, absorbs a great deal of American culture and has ten times as much land per person. But Canada’s urban development patterns are very different from US patterns. One particularly striking example is metropolitan Vancouver, British Columbia. The Vancouver metro area population is about 2.1 million, almost the same as the 2.0 million in the Portland, Oregon metropolitan area. Yet the density of metropolitan Vancouver is double that of metropolitan Portland and higher than metropolitan Los Angeles (the highest density metro area in the U.S.) Even suburban cities at the edge of the metro area, like affluent Port Moody and working class Richmond, are home to clusters of 20- and 30-story condo towers. The Vancouver approach has all the same elements as the successful sprawl control efforts in the U.S.: A metropolitan urban growth boundary is bordered by a large agricultural reserve, forest preserves and various provincial parks and preserves. Both the central city of Vancouver and most of the suburbs, from affluent Port Moody to blue collar Richmond, authorize far higher densities than is common in most U.S. metro areas. The high demand to live in the region has driven up land prices, making high rises economically attractive to developers. However, many Canadian cities without this regional policy framework are also far more compact than their American counterparts. For example, Victoria, British Columbia, with a metropolitan area population of less than 400,000 has significantly higher residential densities than most US metropolitan areas that are substantially larger. A few high-rise towers also rise out of the Canadian prairies in tiny Saskatoon, with a metropolitan population of 234,000. Saskatoon has no urban growth boundary and no agricultural or forest reserves around it. How can this pattern of urban densities in Canada be explained? There are substantial policy differences and planning practices between the nations. Part of the Canadian difference is attributable to the absence of federal government funding for highways in urban areas. (The Trans-Canada highway was a nationally funded investment.) Another part of the explanation is a stronger tradition of deference to government and government regulation. 26 This is not to say that Canada is immune from sprawl. Sprawl can be found around many Canadian cities, from metropolitan Montreal11 and Toronto to tiny Williams Lake in British Columbia. The beautiful Okanagan region in south central BC displays extensive exurban sprawl. Nonetheless, the amount of sprawl around many Canadian cities is less and the density of those cities is higher than their American counterparts. Conclusions: Where (and When) Progress Can Be Made Next This section of the report a) outlines the current political and economic context for sprawl reform efforts at the state level; b) describes some general opportunities and strategies for advancing sprawl curtailment policies at the state, regional and local levels; and c) identifies some specific opportunities for action at the state level as well as needs to defend existing policies and programs. A. The Current Context: The Severe Recession Will Temporarily Halt Both Sprawl and Efforts to Reform Sprawl History shows that the essential pre-condition for the adoption of effective (and ineffective) anti-sprawl programs is a rapid12 pace of development on greenfields. This creates a mobilized, or at least sympathetic, electorate. A mobilized or sympathetic electorate either forces elected officials to take action or lose the next election or gives a license to sympathetic officials to take political leadership on the issue. In many cases, at both the state or local levels, citizens have taken direct action against sprawl through the initiative and referendum process. The current economic crisis eliminates the prime motivation for action. That does not mean that there is no opportunit to take action to reduce sprawl during the recession; there are many such opportunities described below. However, it does mean that the general context is unfavorable to major reforms at the state level and will remain unfavorable until the economy …and sprawl…revive. Not everyone may agree with this diagnosis. The arguments has been made, that the economic crisis has demonstrated that sprawlingdevelopment patterns are no longer sustainable for homeowners, for the governments that finance infrastructure, the planet and possibly the banks. Therefore, (as the argument is advanced) government action is needed to reshape growth into more sustainable, Smart Growth, patterns.That argument has a great deal of logic but does not seem to having any impact on plicy. If anything, the national recession has, so far, tended to reinforce the traditional thinking and practices that promote sprawl,. The best example has been the prominent place given to new road 11 In fact the cover illustration incorporates a photo of suburban sprawl outside of Montreal. The bucolic scene of a hayfield and forest was taken in central British Columbia. 12 “Rapid” depends on the frame of residence of the local population. What seems “rapid” in Vermont is very different from what seems rapid in Arizona . 27 construction as part of an economic stimulus program13, even though much recent research shows investments of this kind have a very limited return on investment. The prominent role played by trades unions in Democrat politics provides one explanation of this phenomenon.14 Another part of the explanation is that all the projects sitting on the shelf that can be rapidly executed reflect traditional thinking. Similarly, in the private sector, the retreat from irresponsible lending will be associated with a return to traditionalism in the review of development pro formas. I ancitipate that any effort to impose new regulations on development will be regarded as counterproductive in many quarters, given the faltering condition of the housing market and commercial construction. In Vermont and Florida the economic crisis is being used as a justification for rolling-back anti-sprawl legislation as an obstacle to ecomonmic recovery. The best that can be said about the current severe recession (and possible depression) is that it can be a very good time to quietly lay the groundwork for future action to adopt sprawl curtailment programs, once growth and development return. During the recession state and local government budget shortfalls are an opportunity to discuss less costly, more-efficient ways of providing opportunities for jobs, shopping and housing. Those shortfalls should sharpen the debate over whether spend limited public funds on reinvesting in existing communities rather than spending money to build new communities at the edge of the urban area. Whether or not this opportunity will be seized probably depends on the mobilization of anti-sprawl reform organizations. B. Some General Opportunities to Advance Anti-Sprawl Policies and Programs 1. Shortfalls in State Department of Transportation Funding Are Important Opportunities to Curb Sprawl Many state departments of transportation are experiencing a shortfall in funding for new infrastructure, especially for roads and highways. The systemic shortfalls in funding for state DOTs will inevitably curtail sprawl-inducing capacity increases. Slowly (though not surely) the shortfall in money for infrastructure is going to force debates over why money should be invested in infrastructure for new communities at the expense of maintaining infrastructure in existing communities. Public opinion polling 13 To illustrate the investments to be made with the stimulus legislation, the President joined Virginia Tim Kain in a press conference at the site of surbuban beltway extension that would be funded by the legislation. Fortunately, the stimulus package also includes funding for investments in transit. Good Jobs First has done yeoman’s work in education union officials and rank and file about the logic of supporting Smart Growth rather than suburban sprawl, but a small organization can have only a limited impact on an entire nation. 14 28 shows overwhelming support for investing public money in the places where people live now, rather than building new roads and highways to serve new communities. Opponents of sprawl should oppose gas tax increases to replenish DOT coffers, if they have the stomach for that strategy. In many states, it will require only a few votes from urban liberals to defeat gas tax increase. A more constructive approach would be for anti-sprawl forces to use their leverage with urban liberal state legislators to tie new revenues to new policies. The most important of those policies is “fix it first.” 2. State Budget Crises Are Opportunities to Advance Fix It First Policies Most states are experiencing severe drops in their revenues, only partially, and temporarily, offset by the Federal stimulus package. This is an opportunity for opponents of sprawl to explain why we can no longer afford to spend limited taxpayer funds to expand infrastructure. Instead we need to dramatically refocus infrastructure spending on maintaining and repairing the infrastructure we have, not expanding capacity. “Fix it first” is a solid, anti-sprawl policy with broad popular appeal. To make it meaningful, proponents should prepare implementing legislation. In some states, the state plays only a modest role in funding infrastructure. In those state, “fix it first” would have to be implemented locally. 3. Defend, Improve and Replicate Existing, Effective Sprawl-Curtailment Programs at the State, Regional and Local Level Defend Existing Programs As mentioned previously, the recession is being used in various states to attack existing anti-sprawl programs. In particular there will be proposals to reduce funding for land conservation programs in the face of budget shortfalls (e.g. Florida, Vermont). In other states reducing regulations intended to discourage sprawling land development will be promoted as economic development measures (e.g. Oregon.) Resistance to these efforts should be supported. Better Implementation of Existing Programs A cost-effective way of stopping sprawl is to support better implementation of the existing effective state programs: natural resource and land conservation efforts in New Jersey and Vermont and statewide urban containment, densification and rural zoning in Oregon and Washington. For example, enhanced nongovernmental organization monitoring and enforcement of the Growth Management Act in Washington state’s Pierce County is likely to yield quicker results, at lower cost, over a larger land area, affecting more new development, than an effort to transform Rhode Island’s anti-sprawl effort (although that state effort is promising). 29 Similarly, investments in improving the performance of existing local programs like the ones in Ventura County, California; Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Charleston and Charleston County, South Carolina, have a higher likelihood of yielding good results. Replication of Local Integrated Programs of UGBs, Urban Densification and Rural Conservation The existence of the package of urban growth boundary, urban densification and rural conservation in so many different states suggests that such efforts could be seeded in many other regions and localities in those same states, or in other states. This project has not yet identified those other potential regions and communities, but a modest amount of brainstorming with the experts and leaders identified in the project could develop both a screen for evaluating prospective locations for adoption of the program and some specific possibilities. On that list might be small progressive cities and a surrounding county or counties like Madison, Wisconsin; Couer D’Alene, Idaho; Ames, Iowa; Bozeman, Montana; and Athens, Georgia. Some larger metropolitan areas might also be candidates for these programs, like Austin, Texas; Providence, Rhode Island; the Salt Lake City/Wasatch Front region; the Denver Regional Council of Governments; and San Diego County (where there have been two credible but losing initiative campaigns to apply conservation zoning to 1,000 square miles of the “back country.” 4. During the Recession Invest in the Capacity of Current and Potential Anti-Sprawl Leaders The recession is a good time to invest in increasing the knowledge and political capacity among elected officials and staff, nonprofits, business leadership organizations about effective sprawl curtailment measures. The focus should be on preparing the way for a new round of action at the state, regional and local level, especially replicating successful local and regional efforts, in states that are too conservative to enact reforms at the state level. Below are two suggestions for ways on making these investments. National or Regional Conferences on Urban Growth Boundaries Coupled with Urban Densification and Rural Conservation One method for educating and inspiring a significant number of policy makers, policy advocates and re-development interests is a conference focused solely on effective sprawl-curtilament programs that employ urban growth boundaries combined with 30 densification and redevelopment programs inside those lines and conservation regulations and incentives outside those lines. At most national planning conferences UGBs and their related policies are treated as exotic outliers to mainstream planning. In many planning conferences these efforts are the subject of a single panel discussion which might consist of little more than an ideological debate over the desirability of this kind of “interference”with “local control” or “the free market.” As a result, only a small number of specialists are aware of the large number of these efforts at the state, regional and local level and nothing about their mechanics and their performance. What is needed is a national conference, or regional conferences, that take the merits of this approach as a given, and instead focuses on how to improve performance and adapt and integrate these programs to achieve additional objectives (climate change, equity, avoid wasting capital investments). Representatives from the different places that have such programs (elected officials, government staff, nonprofit groups, planning consulting firms, academics) would make presentations that begin with a capsule history of the origin of the program; shared detailed performance evaluations and self-critiques; and then broadened out into discussions of ideas for improvement. Some of the conference attendees would be there to learn and share ideas. But others would come from areas where such programs don’t exist. They would learn not only the substance of such programs (and benefit from the written conference materials), but would be inspired to see that such efforts are widespread and politically feasible. They would develop contacts that would help them promote these ideas back home. A byproduct of this event would be a Web-based and paper handbook, compiling all of the presentations as case studies (with a standard format), all of the reform recommendations and supporting bibliography. An alternative to a stand-alone conference would be to provide support for a special track of sessions at the 2010 New Partners for Smart Growth Conference in Seattle. Connecting Sprawl Reform to Private Development Interests In the last two decades, in most parts of the country, from Los Angeles to Lexington Kentucky, developers have begun to make money by building to serve people who want to buy high-density housing in urban locations with a convenient mixture of uses and transit nearby. Other developers are exploiting the niche for retail and services to serve the residents of these new developments. Bankers, realtors and designers have all participated in exploiting this market. The same market would be interested in New Urbanist, mixed-use, higher density developments on infill and greenfield sites. 31 There is debate about how big these markets for non-suburban-sprawl housing and communities really are, but there is no debate now that these markets exist and are of substantial size.15 In many places, developers who want to serve these markets face serious regulatory obstacles to their proposals. They are natural allies of the opponents of sprawl but have rarely been organized to support reforming polices that favor sprawl and disfavor their own businesses. In many places, these kinds of developers are members of the local chapter of the Urban Land Institute. To be effective, outreach to this group of interests needs to come from someone they recognize as a peer, whether local or national. This outreach would explain how a different approach to development benefits them, and would make sure their interests are represented in any anti-sprawl legislation, in order to create a stake in it for them. Nonprofit developers such as community development corporations, Habitat for Humanity and similar organizations, are a politically and substantively important subset of development interests. These groups have a concern about the practical consequences of urban revitalization on the families and neighborhoods they serve, which can lead them to question anti-sprawl efforts. They have been used as voices of moral authority in campaigns to defeat antisprawl measures (as happened in Colorado). Like for-profit developers, these nonprofit developers can become important advocates for anti-sprawl reform (properly done) if the reform can be designed to benefit the constituencies they serve. This can be done via inclusionary zoning, TIF programs, jointdevelopment opportunities and other means. Building trade unions are other important constituents. Greg LeRoy at Good Jobs First has taken on this project with great intelligence and enthusiasm. He could be funded to carry out his educational work in target areas. 5. Targeted Research High-quality research about the causes and consequences of sprawl can be valuable in attracting attention, creating the arguments for reform and changing minds. The staff at Portland Metro’s Research Center describes the market as being divided into thirds: One third wants to buy housing in dense mixed-use neighborhoods; one-third wants to buy homes on large-lots in traditional single-family, single-use suburbs; one third could choose either alternative, depending on how it met their needs. 15 32 Different research is needed in different places. All research intended to influence policy should be place-specific and undergo preliminary screening by sympathetic policy makers and policy advocates to determine its potential impact on policy. Research is wasted if there isn’t enough time and money spent on sharing the results. One rule of thumb is that for every dollar spent conducting the research, nine dollars should be spent on disseminating the results. Mobilizing public opinion: Research that makes projections about the future based on current development patterns can be very powerful, especially if accompanied by an alternative scenario that is more desirable. Documenting effective and ineffective programs: In some places, or for some organizations, curbing sprawl requires documenting and diagnosing the failures of existing efforts. Evaluation research is also important for public officials, nonprofit and professional organizations and funders so that they do not keep investing time, money and political capital in efforts which will not produce results. More focused research on costs to taxpayers: Research on fiscal impacts has attracted attention among government officials and the press but has not had much impact on public debate, so far. It may be that the defect in the research is that it presents information in ways that interest to government officials (e.g., total capital and operating costs for different development patterns) but not to average taxpayers (“Your tax bill will go up by $115 per year to pay for new roads and sewers in new neighborhoods, but funding available from your taxes to maintain the roads and sewers in your neighborhoods will fall by about $7 per year.”) How sprawling development has fared in a collapsing real estate market: There may be some need right now for national research on how standard sprawl development has fared in the economic downturn (decline in prices) relative to inner city neighborhoods and new Smart Growth development and redevelopments. This analysis can be carried out both at the project/product level, at the neighborhood or district level and then at the regional level. For example, how have prices fared in regions that boomed and sprawled the most compared to places that also boomed but sprawled the least? Good partners for this research would be the Urban Land Institute and Dr. Chris Nelson at the University of Utah. Another way of approaching it would be to offer research assistance to the Real Estate Research Corporation. The RERC issues annual reports on Emerging Trends in Real Estate. These reports are based on annual in-depth interviews of real estate experts in the larger urban areas in the U.S. For a decade these reports have suggested that sprawling edge development is not a good investment. The RERC might be delighted to include independent research on how different development products have performed since the economic downturn (Christopher Leinberger might be an ally in this project). 33 Retrospective and prospective density monitoring: For most places there is still a dearth of good information on development and redevelopment trends.16 The decennial U.S. Census results, examined at the finest grain of geographic resolution (blocks or block groups) can provide a comprehensive assessment of residential development patterns. Population and housing units can be arrayed into five to 10 density ranges. The amount of land, people and homes in each of those ranges and the degree to which those distributions shift from decade to decade could provide a simple, clear measure of our progress or regress in stopping sprawl. Dr. Nelson at the University of Utah has expressed interest in tackling this project in the near term. 6. Sprawl Reform and Culture Change A very ambitious, long-term undertaking would be to make sprawling patterns of personal consumption unpopular, like smoking. We can see some glimmers of how this could be done, in the popularization of recycling, the promotion of bikes as a substitute for cars and in the enthusiasm for green building. But the challenges of this effort are also evident in the green building movement, in the various architectural, design and green building journals that celebrate large “sustainable” homes on greenfield locations. Perhaps one way of doing this would be to extend the concept of “reduce, re-use and recycle” to include our thinking about land, buildings, neighborhoods and cities. There is a strong and sophisticated organization already working in this direction, the National Trust for Historic Preservation. C. Particular Opportunities for Adoption of New Sprawl Curtailment Programs at the State Level The research conducted for this project, including survey responses gathered in preparation of the state reports have identified a few opportunities for new state-level sprawl curtailment measures, described below. 1. Gubernatorial Elections in 2010 Gubernatorial leadership usually has played an important role in the adoption of statewide programs intended to curb sprawl. The 2010 elections could result in the 16 The defects with many assessments of anti-sprawl programs are laid out in the Background Report. 34 election or re-election of knowledgeable governors interested in replacing sprawl with Smart Growth.17 In California, Arnold Schwarzenegger is termed out in 2010. Possible candidates for governor include Senator Dianne Feinstein, Mayors Tony Villaraigosa of Los Angeles and Gavin Newsom of San Francisco, current Attorney General and former governor Jerry Brown (also a former mayor of Oakland) and State Treasurer Phil Angelides. Two of these candidates have excellent anti-sprawl credentials. Brown has been promoting Smart Growth ideas for more than 30 years. In 2007 he took the very unusual step of filing litigation under the California Environmental Quality Act against San Bernardino County on the grounds its new comprehensive plan authorized more sprawl, which would generate more air pollution, in violation of CEQA’s requirements. Clearly he would be a governor who would give curtailing sprawl more than lip service. It is possible to imagine him becoming a champion for an Oregon- or Washington-style statewide program (although it would undoubtedly need some very distinctive California characteristics.) State Treasurer Phil Angelides was the losing candidate against Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. He had a very comprehensive and well thought-out Smart Growth policy plank in his campaign. He might be a candidate for governor again. In Rhode Island, Republican Governor Donald Carcieri is term-limited and will have to leave office in 2011. Providence Mayor David Cicilline, a Democrat, has been supportive of Smart Growth policies and organizations. The Democrats are heavily favored for 2010. In his executive actions and proposed budgets, Governor Jim Douglas in Vermont has weakened or attempted to weaken important parts of that state’s anti-sprawl efforts. Almost any conceivable replacement would be an improvement. He was re-elected to another two-year term in November 2008. In 2010 there will be an opportunity to use Smart Growth policies (especially fix-it first) to differentiate between candidates, especially if Douglas decides not to run for a fifth term. State Senator Doug Racine has already announced that he is a candidate for governor in 2010 and State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding has said he is considering a run. Both are Democrats. Maryland’s Governor Martin O’Malley took office with campaign capital built on affirming Governor Glendening’s efforts to curb sprawl, in contrast to Governor Ehrlich’s abandonment of those policies. O’Malley took advantage of the Smart Growth Leadership Institute’s Governor’s Institute on Community Design. He required full attendance by his cabinet. Partly as a result of that event he created a task force to 17 Foundations and other nonprofit organizations cannot engage in campaigns for elective office. However, public research and education and non-partisan candidate forums are permissible. These activities can play an important role in educating the public, and the candidates, about policy options and the public’s receptivity to them. 35 consider implementing the long-dormant state law allowing for the creation of a state plan. He created a special task force which undertook an in-depth evaluation of existing Smart Growth and anti-sprawl programs and suggested many improvements. (The report and recommendations, are described in Volume I of the State Reports.) However, the reforms introduced as bills in the legislature as a result of that effort are modest. Even if they are passed and fully implemented they are unlikely to have much impact on development patterns in Maryland. In the meantime, the Governor is focused on the state budget shortfall and his impending re-election campaign. In all of these states, the following would be of great strategic value for future efforts: (1) Public opinion polling on how “fix-it first” investment policies, and other parts of an anti-sprawl agenda, could influence voters’ decisions on who they will vote for. (2) Public reports about how elements of current and proposed anti-sprawl programs are reducing or could reduce household living costs (e.g., more production of lower-cost housing, reduced travel costs because transit is more cost effective, lower per-capita capital spending). (3) High-profile evaluations of past efforts to achieve policy outcomes that are still generally popular (despite the economy), such as saving important natural resources (e.g., Chesapeake Bay, Vermont farmland.) and directly linking any failures to unfettered “local control.” Unless the legitimacy of local control is challenged, based on its failure to achieve popular policy outcomes, the opportunities for state-level change will be extremely limited. 2. Urban Growth Boundaries, Densification and Rural Conservation Programs: Slight Possibility in California The response to survey questions by legislators, nonprofit advocates and professional planners made it clear that in almost every state surveyed, these experts regard the adoption of an effective three-part program (requiring urban growth boundaries, urban densification and rural conservation by regulation or acquisition) – at the state level - as politically impossible, or at best, very unlikely. The only exception was one respondent in California. This is not surprising given that California does not have a statewide program of this type, but similar programs have been adopted in several counties. The proponents for the legislation could be those organizations who were most concerned various provisions in Senate Bill 375 that believe will compromise its effectiveness (particularly the California Planning and Conservation League). 36 3. Comprehensive Transportation Reform: Possibilities in New Jersey and Maryland Stuart Meck, former head of the American Planning Association’s research program and now a professor at Rutgers University, believes that comprehensive transportation reform is the only anti-sprawl effort that can be enacted in New Jersey that is politically feasible, effective on the ground and free of undesirable equity impacts. However, the opportunity for progress will depend on the success of Governor Corzine’s re-election this year, which may be in doubt. Dru Schmidt-Perkins of 1000 Friends of Maryland believes a transportation planning and investment reform package could be adopted in Maryland, provided it was designed to focus on the cost-savings or cost-effectiveness of this approach. The Secretary of Transportation in Maryland is possibly the most progressive state Department of Transportation executive in the nation and therefore might be interested in this kind of reform, provided his effort had the strong support of his governor. (See discussion of gubernatorial elections below.) 4. Landscape-Level Land Conservation by Purchase of Land, Easements or Transferable Development Rights in Oregon Transferable development rights legislation has been introduced in Oregon. The goal is to reduce the number of dwellings in farm and forest zones allowed under both the state’s original farm and forest zoning laws and by Measure 49 (the compromise legislation that replaced the property-rights initiative Measure 37). This legislation has a chance at passing, but if it does, implementation will be challenging. 5. Limiting the Extension of Urban Infrastructure in North Dakota Steve Zimmer with the American Planning Association’s chapter in North Dakota (where population growth is stagnant but some sprawl is continuing) gave the anti-sprawl program of “prohibiting, or strictly limiting, the expansion of transportation facilities and other infrastructure beyond existing urban areas” a top ranking both for effectiveness and political feasibility. (The other respondent from North Dakota did not comment on any of the specific anti-sprawl packages.) 6. Implementation of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies: California As noted in this report, there are serious structural programs with California’s Senate Bill 375. (These are described in more detail in materials in the digital annex to the California state report.) Nonetheless, the combination of the preliminary success of the Blueprint regional planning program in California; the many regional and local anti-sprawl programs at curtailing sprawl; the national leadership role of California in this effort; and the 37 prospects for more sympathetic leadership at the state level starting in 2011 justify devoting resources to the implementation of SB 375. 38