ACADEMIA ROMÂNĂ
INSTITUTUL DE CERCETĂRI ECONOMICE “GHEORGHE ZANE”
ANUARUL
INSTITUTULUI DE CERCETĂRI ECONOMICE
“GHEORGHE ZANE” – IAŞI
(YEARBOOK OF THE “GHEORGHE ZANE”
INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCHES – JASSY)
TOMUL-15 ● 2006
(VOLUMES 15 ● 2006)
EDITURA ACADEMIEI ROMÂNE
2006
COMITETUL ŞTIINŢIFIC (SCIENTIFIC BOARD)
JAIME GIL ALUJA (Spania), AUREL BURCIU (România), EMILIAN
DOBRESCU redactor şef (România), OVIDIU GHERASIM (România),
MIHAI HAIVAS, (România), MARIO PAGLIACCI (Italia), MIHAI
PATRAŞ (Republica Moldova), TEODOR PĂDURARU secretar de
redacţie (România), ION TALABĂ (România), DORIAN VLĂDEANU
(România).
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ACADEMIA ROMÂNĂ
FILIALA IAŞI
INSTITUTUL DE CERCETĂRI
ECONOMICE “GH. ZANE”
ANUARUL
INSTITUTULUI DE CERCETĂRI
ECONOMICE “GH. ZANE”
TOMUL nr. 15/2006
S U M A R
Mersul ideilor
ELISABETA JABA, CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN, Metodă
de analiză şi previziune a evoluţiei ponderilor
componentelor unui fenomen economic agregat. Aplicaţie
pentru exportul ţărilor UE-15 în perioada 1996-2005 …….
CORNELIU MUNTEANU, Studiu comparativ privind toleranţa
faţă de ambiguitate ………………………………………..
ALEXANDRU TRIFU, Informaţia factorul central al economiei
cunoaşterii sau al economiei informaţionale ? …………….
CĂTĂLINA LACHE, Gestiunea strategică a schimbărilor din
întreprinderile româneşti în perspectiva integrării europene
Probleme în actualitatate
MÁRTA STAUDER, Dezvoltarea rurală în Ungaria înainte şi
după aderarea la UE ……………………………………….
MARILENA MIRONIUC, Analiza şi managementul riscului
financiar în contextul mediului de afaceri din România …..
VIORICA CHIRILĂ, CIPRIAN CHIRILĂ, Analiza sincronizării
ciclurilor bursiere cu ciclurile economice: cazul României,
Franţei şi UE 15 ……………………………………..….…
ION TALABĂ, Aspecte specifice privind formarea, utilizarea şi
costul forţei de muncă în turism …………………………...
CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN, Structurarea informaţiei
economico-sociale la nivel microzonal – necesitate a
sistemului decizional al administraţiilor publice locale …...

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 1–194
5
27
41
55
69
81
93
107
119
2
Puncte de vedere
ALEXANDER BOBRÓVNIKOV, Dinamica ondulatorie în
economia periferică
CORNELIU MUNTEANU, Strategia de marketing şi gestiunea
calităţii produselor universitare; studiu de caz …………….
VALERIU DORNESCU, Conversia datoriilor în acţiuni ca
metodă de asanare a economiei româneşti ………………...
IONEL-CIPRIAN ALECU, Asistarea deciziei la nivel regional
prin metoda pentagonului …………………………………
VALERIU DORNESCU, Corupţia “endemică” …………………
IONEL CIPRIAN ALECU, Consideraţii privind modelarea
incertitudinii economice utilizând intervale fuzzy
125
141
153
159
167
173
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
TEODOR PĂDURARU, MIHAI HAIVAS, Alecsandru Puiu Tacu
– Creator de şcoală ...........................................................................
ALEXANDRU TRIFU, Centenar Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
(1906-1994) ……………………………………………………….
183
185
Viaţa ştiinţifică ……………………………………………………... 191

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 183–190
ROMANIAN ACADEMY
JASSY BRANCH
“GH. ZANE” INSTITUTE OF
ECONOMIC RESEARCHES
YEARBOOK
OF THE
“GH. ZANE” INSTITUTE OF
ECONOMIC RESEARCHES
VOLUME no. 15/2006.
CONTENTS
The progress of ideas
ELISABETA JABA, CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN, Method
for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution
in an aggregate economic phenomenon using their
weights. Application on the exports of EU-15 countries
from 1996 to 2005 ………..………………………….…….
CORNELIU MUNTEANU, Comparative Study on Managers’
Tolerance for Ambiguity …………………………………..
ALEXANDRU TRIFU, Information the core factor of the
Economics of Knowledge or of IT Economics ? ………...
CĂTĂLINA LACHE, Strategic management of the changes in
Romanian companies in view of the european integration
5
27
41
55
Present-day topics
MÁRTA STAUDER, Rural development in Hungary before and
after the EU-accession …………………………………….
MARILENA MIRONIUC, Analysis and management of the
financial risk within the romanian business framework …..
VIORICA CHIRILĂ, CIPRIAN CHIRILĂ, Statistical Analysis of
the Stock change Cycles and the Business Cycles: The
Case of Romania, France and UE 15 ……………………...
ION TALABĂ, Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of
labour in the travel industry ……………………………….
CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN, The structuring of socio–
economic information at micro-zone level – a necessity for
the public administration’s decisional system …………….
An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 1–194
69
81
93
107
119
Points of view
ALEXANDER BOBRÓVNIKOV, La dinámica ondularia en la
economía periférica ………………………………………..
CORNELIU MUNTEANU, Marketing Strategy and Quality
Management for Educational Programs; A Case Study …
VALERIU DORNESCU, The Debts’ conversion into shares as a
sanitation method for the Romanian economy ……………
IONEL-CIPRIAN ALECU, Assisting decision-making at regional
level using the pentagon method …………………………..
VALERIU DORNESCU, The “endemic” corruption ……………
IONEL CIPRIAN ALECU, Remarks on the modelling of
economic uncertainty by using fuzzy intervals ……………
125
141
153
159
167
173
Contributions to the development of economic thinking ………... 183
Scientific life …..………………………………………………….…. 191
ELISABETA JABA
CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN
The progress of ideas
METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
OF THE COMPONENTS’ EVOLUTION IN AN
AGGREGATE ECONOMIC PHENOMENON USING
THEIR WEIGHTS. APPLICATION ON THE EXPORTS
OF EU-15 COUNTRIES FROM 1996 TO 2005
In this article the authors propose a new method for the analysis
and forecast of structural weights dynamics of an aggregate
phenomenon. This method implies the analysis and forecast of real
values’ dynamics of the structural components of the aggregate
phenomenon, structured by clusters, using their weights in aggregate
phenomenon.
By this analysis and forecast method we will obtain several
advantages regarding the quality of regression equations parameters
estimation and, implicitly, it improves the forecast quality based on such
models.
Key words: weights, regression analysis, time series forecast, clusters.
1. Introduction
In the process of analyzing and forecasting an aggregate
phenomenon’s components for obtaining real results, we must consider
the relations established: between the components of the aggregate
phenomenon and between each components and the aggregate
phenomenon because the values of an aggregate phenomenon’s
components are linked between them by aggregation operator. This link
implies a dependency relation between components and the aggregate
phenomenon.
The method suggested by the authors of this article is adjusted to
the specific of aggregate phenomenon and it is conceived to observe the
restrictions which appear in the dynamics of its components.
By this analysis and forecast method we will obtain several
advantages regarding quality of parameters estimations of equation
regression and implicitly improvement of forecast quality by using this
equation regression.

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 5–26
6
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
2. Working method description
The method suggested for the analysis and forecast of economic
aggregates phenomena (e.g. UE 15 export defined by the aggregation of
country groups’ exports) implies covering the following phases:
Phase I:
- aggregate phenomenon’s analysis and forecast by using the
regression analysis [1, pp.72-89];
Phase II: - weights calculating corresponding to each component by
aggregate phenomenon for each year, from 1996 to 2005;
Phase III: - component weights grouping according to characteristics of
their dynamics, using cluster analysis [8, pp. 515-535];
Phase IV: - cluster dynamics analysis and forecasting by using the
regression method;
Phase V: - correcting forecasted weights according to a priori
restrictions;
Phase VI: - calculating the forecasted absolute values for the aggregate
phenomenon’s components, structured by clusters, for an h
forecast’s horizon, by combining the forecasted absolute
values with the forecasted weights of each cluster for the
same year.
The fundamental principle of the method presented in this article
is a model of aggregate phenomenon’s weights analysis, presented for
the first time by Professor E. JABA (1979) [3, pp. 50-100] combined
with the regression analysis applied to time series.
The literature in the field [9, pp.1-13] identifies A. Bravais
(1946), F. Galton (1984), and K. Pearson (1896) as initiators of classical
regression analysis. The issue was approached in further detail by D. B.
Pearson (1938), N. R. Draper and H. Smith(1966), R. H. Williams
(1975). The fathers of modern regression analysis are considered to be
H. Wold (1938, 1952), A. Walters (1968), G. E. P. Box and G. M.
Jenkins (1970, 1976). A reference point in the evolution of modern
regression analysis (stochastic approach) was represented by Box &
Jenkins(1976) methodology, which unified all the discoveries up to that
date in the field of the stochastic analysis of time series, affording
continuity in the modelling process [7, pp.529-531].
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
7
3. Working Hypothesis
The analysis and forecasting of time series through the classical
or modern regression methods depend on the nature of the variables
analyzed in their evolution in time, with each variable being
characterized by certain variation limits and a distribution law, which can
influence the quality of the models describing them [5, pp.227-228].
Through the proposed method, the dynamics of a variable X can
be analyzed both on the aggregate phenomenon on the whole (e.g.: EU
foreign trade), and on structural components (e.g.: foreign trade of EU
member countries), grouped according to certain criteria.
In our paper, the analysis and forecast of cluster-structured
components of the studied phenomenon will be made by using their
weights (pit%), calculated according to relation (1),
p it % 
x it
k
100 , i  1, k , t  1, T
(1)
 x it
i 1
where: - i - represents the number of the component (group) aggregated
in variable X, i  1, k ;
- t - represents the time (moment, period) when the value of
variable X was registered, t  1, T ;
- xit - represents the value of variable X registered for component
(group) i at time (moment, period) t.
The observed variable X is:
X: {x t }, t  1, T
(2)
and its values are defined according to relation:
k
x t   x it , i  1, k , t  1, T
(3)
i 1
The weights of the k components corresponding to the T periods/
time moments are presented in Table 1.
8
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table 1.
The X phenomenon structured by component groups,
specific for different time periods/ moments
pi1 %
pi2 %
....
pit %
....
p11 %
pi2 %
....
p1t %
....
p1t %
p21 %
pi2 %
....
p2t %
....
p2t %
....
....
....
....
....
....
pi1 %
pi2 %
....
pit %
....
pit %
....
....
....
....
....
....
pk1 %
pk2 %
pkt %
pkt %
TOTAL
100%
100%
100%
piT %
p1T %
p2T %
....
piT %
....
pkT %
100%
The presentation of the proposed method for the analysis and
forecast of cluster-structured components of an aggregate economic
phenomenon by using their weights related to on the whole is achieved in
this paper by using an example referring to the exports of the UE 15
countries for the period 1996-2005.
The following notations will be used in this article:
- X – “real value of exports” variable of EU 15 countries;
- k – number of groups/clusters;
- T – number of time periods/ moments in time;
- h – forecast horizon;
- i – number of reference group according to which the
analysis of EU 15 exports is made, i  1, k
(clusters/groups);
- t – time (moment, period) when the level of variable X was
registered, t  1, T ;
- xi,t – value of exports of group i of EU 15 countries at time t;
- xi ,t – estimated value of xi,t through regression model;
- xi ,t  h – forecasted value of xi ,t for a forecast horizon h;
- Pi% – weight variable of group i of EU 15 countries related
to EU 15 total exports, i = 1, k ;
%
- pi,t – weight variable of group i of EU 15 countries related
to EU 15 total exports at time t;
%
- pi ,t – estimated value of pi,t% through regression model;
- pi%,t  h – predicted value of pi,t% for a forecast horizon h.
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
9
The volume dynamics in the exports of EU 15 countries and the
export weights of EU 15 component countries related total EU 15 exports
in the period 1996-2005 are presented in Table A1 and Table A2, in the
appendix.
4. Grouping of UE-15 countries
The proposed method of analysis and forecasting presents as its
distinctive stage the grouping of the evolutions of the aggregate variable
components in function of their typology. Of course, an individual
approach to the aggregate variable components is also possible (e.g.: EU
15 component countries), but their clustering according of their
evolutionary similarities is much more advantage because:
1. it attenuates the influence of random variations of weights
corresponding to elementary components by aggregation at cluster
level for the observed period, 1996-2005. This property is verified
by the fact that the defined weights must satisfy the restrictions
presented in relations (5) and (6). By grouping, more statistically
stable1 series of weights are obtained than the series of component
elements (see Table A.3). This will facilitate the identification of a
new model, in what representativity is concerned, to characterize the
evolution of the group better than the models that characterize the
evolution of each individual component;
2. it reduces the number of employed calculations and models – from
15 to 4 in the present case.
For grouping, the hierarchical cluster analysis was used through
the method of between-groups linkage, while for measuring the distances
between components, the squared Euclidian distance was applied [8, pp.
515-555]. In the present application, we opt for grouping the evolutions
of the weight of EU 15 states’ exports related to total EU 15 exports into
groups of 4 states. We have chosen a four-cluster grouping because, as
can be seen from Table A.4, a structuring into 3 clusters is insufficient,
and the structuring into 5 clusters does not bring significant changes.
1
A phenomenon is said to be more statistically stable than another if the former is
characterized by a lower variance in relation to its average. The statistical
stability of a phenomenon can be quantified by means of a variation coefficient:
v=

100 [2., p. 151]
x
10
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
The four groups of states will have the following componence
(Table A.4):
- group 1: Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Austria,
Portugal, Finland, Sweden;
- group 2: Spain, Netherlands;
- group 3: Germany;
- group 4: France, UK, Italy.
The data aggregation at a group level is made by summing the
values of the weights of EU 15 component countries’ exports within total
EU 15 exports.
In analyzing and forecasting the evolution of exports of the EU 15
countries grouped into four clusters, two approaches are available:
1. Analysis and forecasting of evolution of exports expressed in
absolute values, both at the level of each group, and at the level of
the whole volume of exports, taking into consideration the restriction
defined by relation (4).
xt 
k 4
 x it  x1t  x 2t  x 3t  x 4t , for
t  1, T
(4)
i 1
2. Analysis and forecast of evolution of exports expressed in relative
values. This approach involves the expression in the form of weights
(Table 2) of exports on groups of countries related to total EU- 15
exports, taking into consideration the restrictions defined by relations
(5) and (6).






-
k
100% =
p
i 1
%
it
, t
0%≤ pit%≤ 100%, i  1,k şi  t=1,T
(5)
(6)
We here opt for the second approach due to the fact that:
it reduces the variation amplitude of the phenomenon (Table 3) from
(-∞, +∞) to (0%, 100%);
it reduces variance, respectively, the standard mean deviation
corresponding to the phenomenon (Table 3), which will have a
positive influence on the quality of estimates made on these values as
an alternative to value standardization.
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
11
Table 2.
Dynamics of UE-15 country exports weights’ related to total UE-15
exports, structured by 4 groups for 1996-2005 period
Year
(t)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
% for group 1 of
UE-15 countries
% for group 2 of
UE-15 countries
% for group 3 of
UE-15 countries
% for group 4 of
UE-15 countries
%
(p 1t
)
(p %
2t )
%
(p 3t
)
(p %
4t )
0,160
0,159
0,158
0,160
0,161
0,159
0,161
0,164
0,165
0,167
0,116
0,114
0,116
0,119
0,120
0,125
0,128
0,132
0,133
0,137
0,273
0,257
0,252
0,247
0,237
0,234
0,229
0,227
0,223
0,219
0,450
0,469
0,474
0,475
0,482
0,482
0,482
0,476
0,479
0,477
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1
The only variable used in the calculations as an absolute value is
the total volume of exports of EU 15 countries.
Table 3.
Descriptive statistics for the UE-15 country exports structured
by 4 groups and for the weight series corresponding for each groups
related to the total exports of UE-15 countries, from 1996 to 2005
Group 1
Weight for group 1 (p1t%)
Group 2
Weight for group 2 (p2t%)
Group 3
Weight for group 3 (p3t%)
Group 4
Weight for group 4 (p4t%)
EU - 15
Mean
Median
1410287,250
16,149
2074014,370
23,979
1088840,180
12,401
4144085,650
47,459
8718183,670
1421746,800
16,070
2087830,000
23,540
1087898,000
12,260
4272831,650
47,656
8870306,600
Standard
deviance
199214,941
0,294
122270,326
1,705
206159,166
0,819
573287,800
0,949
1094546,033
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1 and Table A 2 according to clusters
grouping.
12
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
5. Phases of the method for the analysis and forecast of
exports made by EU 15 countries, grouped into four
clusters, based on their weights related to total EU 15
exports in the period 1996-2005
Phase I: Analysis and forecast of aggregate phenomenon through
the method of classical regression analysis. For analyzing the total
exports of EU 15 countries in the period 1996-2005, specific methods for
the analysis of time series will be used. In our example, due to the fact
that the time series has a reduced volume (10 registrations), we shall opt
for an analysis based on the method of tendency adjustment by analytical
function [5, pp. 67-81]. The selection of the best model will be made
considering the following criteria:
Criterion 1: - maximum adjusted R square (R2). This criterion will
lead to the selection of those models generating a small modelling
error in relation to the variance of the studied phenomenon and the
number of estimated coefficients in the employed regression model
[6, pp.76-78].
For variable X (exports of EU 15 component states), 4 models are
retained with the highest values of adjusted correlation coefficients
(Table 4), significantly different from zero (value sig. <0.05): the
cubic model (0.996), the square model (0.985), and the linear model
(0.992).
Criterion 2: - R square significantly different from zero. This
criterion determines the selection, from among the models meeting
criterion 1, of those models for which the value of the R square
significantly differs from zero [5, p. 79].
For testing the equality hypothesis in relation to zero of the
determination ratio, one-way factorial ANOVA is used and its
corresponding Fisher statistics (F) (Table 4).
Table 4.
Values of R square and their testing for models which describe the
dynamics of UE-15’s total exports (X), from 1996 to 2005
Model
Cubic
Quadratic
Linear
R2 Adjusted R2 F statistic
0.996
0.993
449.237
0.995
0.994
769.556
0.992
0.991
1010.099
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1
Df 1
3.000
2.000
1.000
Df 2
6.000
7.000
8.000
Sig.
0.000
0.000
0.000
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
13
Criterion 3: - criterion of parameters significantly different from
zero. This criterion will be applied to the models selected following
the successive application of criteria 1 and 2, and will result in the
retention of those models for which the values of regression equation
parameter estimators2 significantly differ from zero [7, pp.79-81]. To
this aim, the Student test will be used and its corresponding statistics t
(Table 5). In our example, only the linear model described by relation
(7) will be retained.
(7)
x̂ t = 6737669,447 + 360093,495 t
Table 5.
Testing estimated parameters for cubic model, quadratic model and linear
model which describe the tendency of the variable X
Coefficient Standard
T
Model
Sig.
value
error
statistic
3-rd order coefficient
-576.538
1605.822 -0.359 0.732
2-nd order coefficient
1266.184 26779.225
0.047 0.964
Cubic
1-st order coefficient
406932.610 129828.529
3.134 0.020
Constant
6605709.070 173209.214 38.137 0.000
2-nd order coefficient
-8246.698
3634.275 -2.269 0.058
Quadratic 1-st order coefficient
450807.178 41020.645 10.990 0.000
Constant
6556242.080 98219.599 66.751 0.000
1-st order coefficient
360093,495 11330,091 31.782 0.000
Linear
Constant
6737669,447 70301,368 95.840 0.000
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1
Criterion 4: - criterion of the most accurate model. This criterion is
used in the case when, following the cumulative application of
criteria 1, 2, and 3, several models are obtained. In this situation, we
shall opt for the model generating the minimum sum of squares error
[1, p.20].
Criterion 5: - criterion of the simplest model. This criterion is used in
the case when, following the cumulative application of criteria 1, 2, 3,
and 4, several models are obtained. The criterion usually uses
indicators from the family of information energy criteria: Akaike
information criterion [7, p.488], Schwartz information criterion
We refer here especially to the testing of some “strategic” parameters in relation to
zero. For instance, in the linear regression equation: xt = β0 + β1 t, parameter β1 is a
strategic parameter because it gives the order of the regression equation and,
consequently, its value in relation to zero needs to be tested. Parameter β 0 cannot differ
significantly from zero and, in this case, we shall use the modified linear model xt = β1 t
2
for describing the tendency modelling of series xt, t  1, T .
14
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
[1, p.24], etc., which improve criterion 4 by penalizing the latter with
the number of coefficients included in the model describing the time
series.
Observation: In our example, it is not necessary to apply criteria 4
and 5 because there is only one potential model that describes the
tendency of variable X in the period 1996-2005. This model is
described by relation (7) and cumulatively meets criteria 1-3.
Table 6.
Export’s real values (xt) and estimate values ( x̂ t )
calculated for a 2 years forecast horizon
-
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Bill. EU (from 01.01.1999) / Bill.. ECU (to 31.12.1998) -
xt
7044446
7415942
7751446
8151819
8711406
9029207
9356548
9511032
9946401
10263591
-----------------
x̂ t
7097762,942
7457856,437
7817949,932
8178043,427
8538136,922
8898230,418
9258323,913
9618417,408
9978510,903
10338604,40
10698697,89
11058791,39
Note: Forecast is made using the linear model described by relation (7).
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1
Based on the linear model chosen in the first part of this phase and
given the hypothesis that all conditions are preserved over modelling
time (variance and series tendency are constant), we shall make the
forecast for a prognosis horizon of 2 years. It follows that, based on the
model described in relation (7) we shall predict the value of EU 15 total
exports for years 2006 and 2007 (Table 6).
Phase II: - calculation of weights which corresponding to each
component of the aggregate phenomenon for each individual year.
Weights are calculate for exports corresponding to each EU 15
component country related to the total EU 15 exports for the period
1996-2005 (Table A.2).
Phase III: - clustering the weights of EU 15 countries’ exports
within total EU 15 exports for the period 1996-2005, according to their
evolutionary characteristics, calculated in the previous phase by using
hierarchical cluster analysis (Table A.4).
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
15
Phase IV: - analysis and forecast of weight evolution of EU 15
countries’ exports, grouped in four clusters, within the total EU 15
exports for the period 1996-2005, by using modelling by analytical
function as a method of tendency analysis. Modelling the evolution of the
weight of EU 15 countries’ exports, structured into four clusters, related
to the total EU 15 exports in the period 1996-2005 will be made by
observing the approach in phase II.
For variable P1%, we retain the following models with the highest
values of the adjusted correlation coefficient (Table 7), significantly
different from zero: the cubic model (0.913) and the square model
(0.910).
Table 7.
Values of R square and their testing for models which describe the
dynamics of export’s weights (X) of UE countries’ group 1 reported to
the total of UE15 exports, from 1996 to 2005
- P1% 2
2
R
Adjusted R
F statistic df 1 df 2
Sig.
SSE
Model
Cubic
0,913
0,869
20,981
3
6 0,001 0,087
Quadratic
0,910
0,884
35,338
2
7 0,000 0,088
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 2
For variable P2%, we retain the models with the highest values of
the adjusted correlation coefficient (Table 8): the cubic model (0.991),
the square model (0.986), and the logarithmic model3 (0.985), which can
describe the weight dynamics of the exports in the 2nd group of EU 15
countries related to the total EU 15 exports.
Table 8.
Values of R square and their testing for models which describe the
dynamics of export’s weights (X) of UE countries’ group 2 reported to
the total of UE15 exports, from 1996 to 2005
- P2% R2
Adjusted R2 F statistic df 1 df 2
Sig.
SSE
Model
Cubic
0,991
0,987
224,133 3
6 0,000 0,160
Quadratic
0,986
0,982
242,053 2
7 0,000 0,204
Logarithmic 0,985
0,983
525,271 1
8 0,000 0,209
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 2
For variable P3%, we retain among the best models (Table 9): the
cubic model (0.993) and the square model (0.974) as having the highest
values of the correlation coefficient significantly different from zero.
3
xt = β0 + β1 ln(t).
16
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table 9.
Values of R square and testing of these for models which describe the
dynamic of export’s weights (X) of UE countries’ group 3 reported to the
total of UE15 exports, from 1996 to 2005
- P3% 2
2
R
Adjusted R
F statistic df 1 df 2
Sig.
SSE
Model
Cubic
0,993
0,990
289,493
3
6 0,000 0,068
Quadratic 0,974
0,967
131,487
2
7 0,000 0,132
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 2
The best models to describe the series of export weights in the 4th
group of EU 15 countries within total EU 15 exports for the period 19962005 (p4t%) are (Table 10): the cubic model (0.932), S4 model 4 (0.911),
and the reverse model5 (0.909).
Table 10.
Values of R square and testing of these for models which describe the
dynamic of export’s weights (X) of UE countries’ group 4 reported to the
total of UE15 exports, from 1996 to 2005
- P4% R2
Adjusted R2 F statistic df 1 df 2
Sig.
SSE
Model
Cubic
0,932
0,898
27,475
3
6 0,001 0,068
S
0,911
0,900
82,171
1
8 0,000 0,609
Inverse 0,909
0,898
79,992
1
8 0,000 0,618
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 2
For these models, the estimation and testing of the regression
equation coefficients will be made.
Table 11.
Regression equations coefficients testing for quadratic model and cubic
model corresponding to the tendency of P1% variable, from 1996 to 2005.
Coefficient
value
Model
Quadratic
Cubic
4
5
 +  /t
2-nd order coefficient
1-st order coefficient
Constant
3-rd order coefficient
2-nd order coefficient
1-st order coefficient
Constant
xt = e 0 1 or ln(xt) = β0 + β1/t.
xt = β0 + β1/t.
0,017
-0,106
16,074
-0,001
0,032
-0,173
16,150
Standard
error
0,004
0,049
0,118
0,002
0,032
0,155
0,206
T statistic
Sig.
3,919
-2,152
136,458
-0,462
0,992
-1,119
78,276
0,006
0,068
0,000
0,661
0,359
0,306
0,000
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
17
From the analysis of the data in Table 11, it can be noticed that
the parameters of the components of orders 3, 2, and 1 of the cubic model
are not significantly different from zero, which leads to the invalidation
of the model for value series p1,t%, t= 1996, 2005 . It follows that the
model to describe the evolution of variable P1% will be the square model
described by relation (8).
p̂ 1,t% = 16.074 -0,106 t + 0,017 t2
(8)
From the analysis of the results in Table 12 it can be seen that, for
t= 1996, 2005 , the cubic model is not validated because the
coefficient of the third-order term of the model is not significantly
different from zero. The models that pass this modelling phase are the
logarithmic and square ones. Considering that there are no large
differences between the resulted error sums of squares (Table 8) we shall
choose the square model described by relation (9) as being the best
model to describe the evolution in time of variable P2%.
p2t%,,
Table 12.
Regression equation coefficients testing for logarithmic model, quadratic
model and cubic model corresponding to the tendency of P2% variable,
from 1996 to 2005
Model
Coefficient Standard
T
value
error
statistic
1-st order coefficient
-2,308
Constant
27,465
2-nd order coefficient
0,045
1-st order coefficient
Quadratic
-1,046
Constant
27,985
3-rd order coefficient
-0,007
2-nd order coefficient
0,157
Cubic
1-st order coefficient
-1,561
Constant
28,566
*
Dependent variable is ln(p2t%).
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 3
Logarithmic*
Sig.
0,101 -22,919 0,000
0,167 164,023 0,000
0,010
4,517 0,003
0,113
-9,228 0,000
0,271 103,115 0,000
0,004
-1,916 0,104
0,059
2,665 0,037
0,286
-5,466 0,002
0,381 74,969 0,000
p̂ 2,t% = 27,985-1,046 t + 0,045 t2
(9)
18
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table 13.
Regression equation coefficients testing for logarithmic model, quadratic
model and cubic model corresponding to the tendency of P2% variable,
from 1996 to 2005
Model
Coefficient Standard
T statistic
value
error
1-st order coefficient
-2,308
Constant
27,465
2-nd order coefficient
0,045
1-st order coefficient
Quadratic
-1,046
Constant
27,985
3-rd order coefficient
-0,007
2-nd order coefficient
0,157
Cubic
1-st order coefficient
-1,561
Constant
28,566
*
Dependent variable is ln(p2t%).
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 3
Logarithmic*
Sig.
0,101 -22,919 0,000
0,167 164,023 0,000
0,010
4,517 0,003
0,113
-9,228 0,000
0,271 103,115 0,000
0,004
-1,916 0,104
0,059
2,665 0,037
0,286
-5,466 0,002
0,381 74,969 0,000
From the analysis of the results in Table 13, it can be noticed that,
for p3,t , t= 1996, 2005 , the following models are validated: the square
model and the cubic model. Considering the values in Table 9, we shall
choose the cubic model described by relation (10) as being the best
model to describe the evolution of variable P3% in the period 1996-2005.
%
p̂ 3,t% = 11,878 - 0,402 t + 0,119 t2 – 0,006 t3
(10)
Table 14.
Regression equations coefficients testing for inverse model, cubic model
and S model corresponding to the tendency of P4% variable,
from 1996 to 2005
Model
Coefficient
value
(-1) order coefficient
-3,264
Constant
48,415
3-rd order coefficient
0,013
2-nd order coefficient
-0,304
Cubic
1-st order coefficient
2,126
Constant
43,380
(-1) order coefficient
-0,070
S*
Constant
3,880
*
The Dependent variable is ln(p4t%).
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 3
Inverse*
Standard
error
T statistic
0,365
-8,944
0,144 337,036
0,005
2,477
0,091
-3,344
0,440
4,827
0,588
73,824
0,008
-9,065
0,003 1274,330
Sig.
0,000
0,000
0,048
0,016
0,003
0,000
0,000
0,000
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
19
For variable P4%, the reverse model, cubic model and S model
(Table 14) are validated. Considering the data in Table 10, we shall
choose the cubic model described by relation (11) as being the best
model to describe the evolution of variable P4% in the period 1996-2005.
p̂ 4,t% = 43,38 + 2,126 t - 0,304 t2 – 0,013 t3
(11)
Table 15.
Real and estimated / forecasted values for the variables: P1%, P2%, P3%
and P4% for a 2 years forecast horizon, using the regression equation
models selected in the IV-th Phase
Year
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
p1,t%
16,04
15,89
15,80
15,98
16,11
15,95
16,10
16,43
16,50
16,70
---------------
p2,t%
27,28
25,72
25,18
24,68
23,68
23,40
22,93
22,75
22,28
21,90
---------------
p3,t%
11,64
11,42
11,57
11,85
12,03
12,49
12,76
13,22
13,33
13,70
---------------
p4,t%
45,01
46,95
47,42
47,45
48,18
48,16
48,21
47,61
47,90
47,70
---------------
p 1,t%
15,985
15,931
15,910
15,924
15,972
16,054
16,170
16,320
16,505
16,723
16,976
17,263
p 2,t %
26,985
26,075
25,256
24,527
23,889
23,342
22,886
22,520
22,245
22,061
21,968
21,965
p 3,t %
11,589
11,501
11,578
11,783
12,079
12,430
12,800
13,150
13,445
13,649
13,724
13,634
p 4,t %
45,216
46,525
47,388
47,887
48,102
48,114
48,004
47,854
47,744
47,755
47,967
48,463
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 2
Using the models selected for the variables export weights
corresponding to the four groups of EU 15 states related to the total EU
15 exports and assuming that all conditions remain the same throughout
modelling (constant series variance), the forecast will be made for a
prognosis horizon equal to 2 years, i.e. for years 2006 and 2007 (Table
15).
Phase V: correction of predicted weights so as to satisfy the
conditions described by relations (5) and (6). For the specific weight
values obtained through forecast for a 2-year horizon in phase III, the
observance of the conditions described by relations (5) and (6) will be
checked.
20
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table 16.
Coefficient adjustment values of the theoretical / forecast values for the
variables P1%, P2%, P3% and P4% according to restrictions (5) and (6)
Year
(t)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3
p
%
1,t
p 2,t
%
p 3,t
%
p 4,t
%
 p it
100% –
3
%
i 1
15,985
15,931
15,910
15,924
15,972
16,054
16,170
16,320
16,505
16,723
16,976
17,263
26,985
26,075
25,256
24,527
23,889
23,342
22,886
22,520
22,245
22,061
21,968
21,965
11,589
11,501
11,578
11,783
12,079
12,430
12,800
13,150
13,445
13,649
13,724
13,634
45,216
46,525
47,388
47,887
48,102
48,114
48,004
47,854
47,744
47,755
47,967
48,463
–  p it %
Ct
0,225
-0,032
-0,132
-0,121
-0,042
0,06
0,14
0,156
0,061
-0,188
-0,635
-1,325
0,056
-0,008
-0,033
-0,030
-0,011
0,015
0,035
0,039
0,015
-0,047
-0,159
-0,331
i 1
99,775
100,032
100,132
100,121
100,042
99,94
99,86
99,844
99,939
100,188
100,635
101,325
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 15
Should there be an infringement of the restrictions presented
through relations (5) and (6), then the deviation of the predicted values
from the restriction values will be calculated and a weighted or
unweighted adjustment of the weights obtained in phase IV will be
resorted to in order to satisfy the condition given by relation (6). The
indicators which represent the quantity with which adjustment will made
shall be called of the adjustment coefficient and marked ct. In case of an
unweighted adjustment, relation (12) (Table 16) will be used for the
calculation of ct.
4
ct 
100%   p̂ i%,t
i 1
4
,
(12)
where:
- p̂ i%,t represents the estimated weight value of the exports of group i
of EU 15 countries at period/time t;
- ct represents the unweighted adjustment coefficient specific to
period/moment t belonging to the forecast horizon.
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
21
The correction of the predicted weights in the case of unbalanced
adjustment will be made according to relation (12) (Table 17).
Table 17.
Adjusted, theoretical and forecasted values corresponding to variables
P1%, P2%, P3% and P4%, for a 2 years forecast horizon, according to the
models selected in IV-th phase
Year
(t)
p̂1%,t
p̂ %
2, t
p̂ 3%, t
p̂ %
4, t
Ct
p̂1%,t
p̂ %
2, t
adjusted adjusted
1996 15,985 26,985 11,589 45,216 0,056 16,041 27,041
1997 15,931 26,075 11,501 46,525 -0,008 15,923 26,067
1998 15,910 25,256 11,578 47,388 -0,033 15,877 25,223
1999 15,924 24,527 11,783 47,887 -0,030 15,894 24,497
2000 15,972 23,889 12,079 48,102 -0,011 15,961 23,878
2001 16,054 23,342 12,430 48,114 0,015 16,069 23,357
2002 16,170 22,886 12,800 48,004 0,035 16,205 22,921
2003 16,320 22,520 13,150 47,854 0,039 16,359 22,559
2004 16,505 22,245 13,445 47,744 0,015 16,52 22,26
2005 16,723 22,061 13,649 47,755 -0,047 16,676 22,014
2006 16,976 21,968 13,724 47,967 -0,159 16,817 21,809
2007 17,263 21,965 13,634 48,463 -0,331 16,932 21,634
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 15 and Table 16.
p̂ i%,t adjusted = p̂ i%,t + ct ,
p̂ 3%, t
p̂ %
4, t
adjusted adjusted
11,645 45,272
11,493 46,517
11,545 47,355
11,753 47,857
12,068 48,091
12,445 48,129
12,835 48,039
13,189 47,893
13,46 47,759
13,602 47,708
13,565 47,808
13,303 48,132
(13)
Considering the relations (11) and (12), the first restriction in
relation (5) is noted to be met. It must be taken into consideration that, in
the case in which the corrected predicted value of the weight related to
the total of one group surpasses 100%, then, according to the restriction
described by relation (6), the predicted value will be given the value of
100%, and the difference between 100% and the value resulted from the
forecast is to be distributed to the other groups. The same procedure shall
be applied in the case in which, following forecast and adjustment,
respectively, weight values lower than 0% are obtained.
Phase VI: absolute predicted values of the exports of EU 15
countries grouped into clusters are obtained by multiplying the total
volume of EU 15 exports predicted for years 2006 and 2007 with the
corresponding values of the adjusted weights predicted in phase V,
according to relation (14) (Table 18).
x̂ i, t h  p̂ i%,t adjusted  x̂ t  h ,
(14)
22
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table 18.
Real and forecasted values for the export’s weights of UE-15 countries
grouped in 4 clusters, for a 2 years forecast horizon, 2006 and 2007
Year
(t)
2006
2007
Year
(t)
2006
2007
x̂ t+h
10698697,89
11058791,39
p̂ 1,t%
adjusted
16,817
16,932
p̂ 2,t %
adjusted
21,809
21,634
p̂ 3,t %
adjusted
13,565
13,303
p̂ 4,t %
adjusted
47,808
48,132
x̂ 1,t+h
x̂ 2,t+h
x̂ 3,t+h
x̂ 4,t+h
1799200,024
1872474,558
2333279,023
2392458,929
1451278,369
1471151,019
5114833,487
5322817,472
Source: Values calculated using data from Table 6 and Table 17.
6. Conclusions
The method for the analysis and forecast of the evolution of
components’ weights in an aggregate phenomenon is of great use when it
is possible to break down the phenomenon into component parts, which
allows for the employment of the weights of components, structured into
clusters, related to the total, instead of absolute values.
The advantages of this method result from the reduction of the
variation field of component phenomena, with immediate implications on
the quality of model estimations and in the correction of predicted weight
values according to the restrictions defined by relations (5) and (6).
By employing the weights of each group instead of absolute
values, a new variable is introduced into the model, together with the
division by the total value of EU 15 exports, a variable which weighted
the real increase or decrease. For example, if the exports of one group of
EU 15 countries remain constant in time, but the total volume of EU 15
exports decreases, then this situation will be perceived differently at the
level of real values as compared to the weights’ level. By using weights,
a tendency increase will be perceived, while, by using absolute values,
the tendency will be perceived as stationary in time.
Another advantage of using this method results from the fact that
it is no longer necessary to update the export values of EU 15 component
countries structured on clusters, correlated to inflation rate, but only the
total volume of EU 15 exports.
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
23
The aggregate variable introduced into the model by using
weights instead of real values is a restrictive variable that relates all the
real values of the components, according to relation (5).
There are, of course, disadvantages of this method, which can
appear in the case in which the evolution in the volume of exports of an
EU 15 component state is much too variable in time and the tendency
cannot be adjusted in optimum conditions; this shortcoming is done away
with by clustering the evolutions of exports of EU 15 component states.
In our paper, we have opted for the classical modelling of the
time series through the analytical adjustment of the trend (the determinist
method). If necessary, depending on the specificity of the studied series,
one can opt for more comprehensive analysis methods of the time series,
such as: exponential adjustment, ARIMA-model-based seasonal
adjustment, etc, but the phases of the methodological approach remain
broadly the same.
References
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statistică socială, Teză de doctorat, IAŞI
4. Klein L. R., 2003, Welfe A., Welfe W., Principiile modelării
macroeconometrice, Ed. Economică, Bucureşti
5. Melard G., Methodes de prevision a court term, Edition de
l’Universite de Bruxelles, 1990
6. Pindyck R. S., Rubinfeld D. L, 1991, Econometric models and
economic forecasts, Mc.Graw-Hill, Inc., New York
7. Madala G. S., 2001, Introduction to econometrics, John Wiley &
Sons, LTD., Chichester England
8. Timm N. H., 2002, Applied Multivariate Analysis, Springer Verlag,
New York Inc.
9. Stanton J. M., 2001, Galton, Pearson, and the Peas: A Brief History
of Linear Regression for Statistics Instructors, in e-review “ Journal
of Statistics Education”, Vol. 9, Nr. 3 (2001),
http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/
24
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Appendix
Table A1.
UE 15 export value from 1996 to 2005
– Billions EUR (from 01.01.1999)/ Billions ECU (to 31.12.1998) –
UE 15
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
217001,10 220129,40 227984,80 238233,40 251740,60
Belgium
145323,90 150414,10 155163,10 163199,90 173597,90
Denmark
1921660,50 1907246,20 1952107,00 2012000,00 2062500,00
Germany
97972,90 107103,00 108977,30 117849,50 125892,10
Greece
490446,20 505391,70 536943,10 579983,00 630263,00
Spain
1240362,40 1258310,70 1316171,70 1366466,00 1441371,00
France
58370,00
71717,60
78810,70
90612,40 104379,00
Ireland
992152,10 1052553,80 1087220,40 1127091,10 1191057,30
Italy
16215,10
16342,40
17294,30
19886,80
22000,60
Luxembourg
329315,50 341138,60 359858,70 386193,00 417960,00
Netherlands
186282,80 184287,10 191076,40 200025,30 210392,30
Austria
92690,30
98831,50 105760,30 114192,80 122270,00
Portugal
101366,30 109075,00 116643,50 120965,00 130859,00
Finland
214854,80 220161,80 222886,80 238020,20 262550,30
Sweden
United Kingdom 938269,00 1170875,10 1272142,20 1374499,80 1564573,10
TOTAL EU15
7044445,70 7415942,10 7751446,00 8151819,30 8711406,40
UE 15
2001
2002
2003
258883,50 267577,90 274582,40
Belgium
179226,10 184743,60 189640,50
Denmark
2113160,00 2145020,00 2163400,00
Germany
133104,60 143482,20 155543,20
Greece
679842,00 729021,00 780550,00
Spain
1497174,00 1548555,00 1594814,00
France
117114,10 130515,40 139097,00
Ireland
1248648,10 1295225,70 1335353,70
Italy
22572,30
24028,20
25683,80
Luxembourg
447731,00 465214,00 476349,00
Netherlands
215877,90 220687,70 226967,90
Austria
129308,30 135433,60 137522,80
Portugal
136472,00 140853,00 143807,00
Finland
247253,00 258877,90 269548,30
Sweden
United Kingdom 1602839,80 1667312,30 1598171,90
TOTAL EU15
9029206,80 9356547,50 9511031,80
Sursa: EuroStat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/
2004
288089,10
197221,70
2215650,00
168417,20
837316,00
1659020,00
148556,50
1388870,30
27055,70
488642,00
237038,60
143028,80
149725,00
282013,50
1715941,70
9946400,60
2005
298179,80
208206,10
2247400,00
181087,50
904323,00
1710023,60
160322,00
1417241,40
29324,50
501921,00
246113,20
147395,40
155320,00
287970,30
1768549,30
10263590,50
Method for the analysis and forecast of the components’ evolution …
25
Table A2.
UE 15 export weights related to the total UE 15 export
from 1996 to 2005
–%–
Ţări ale
UE 15
Belgium
Denmark
Germany
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3,08
2,97
2,94
2,92
2,89
2,87
2,86
2,89
2,90
2,91
2,06
2,03
2,00
2,00
1,99
1,98
1,97
1,99
1,98
2,03
27,28 25,72 25,18 24,68 23,68 23,40 22,93 22,75 22,28 21,90
Greece
1,39
1,44
1,41
1,45
1,45
1,47
1,53
1,64
1,69
1,76
Spain
6,96
6,81
6,93
7,11
7,23
7,53
7,79
8,21
8,42
8,81
France
Ireland
Italy
17,61 16,97 16,98 16,76 16,55 16,58 16,55 16,77 16,68 16,66
0,83
0,97
1,02
1,11
1,20
1,30
1,39
1,46
1,49
1,56
14,08 14,19 14,03 13,83 13,67 13,83 13,84 14,04 13,96 13,81
Luxembourg
0,23
0,22
0,22
0,24
0,25
0,25
0,26
0,27
0,27
0,29
Netherlands
4,67
4,60
4,64
4,74
4,80
4,96
4,97
5,01
4,91
4,89
Austria
2,64
2,49
2,47
2,45
2,42
2,39
2,36
2,39
2,38
2,40
Portugal
1,32
1,33
1,36
1,40
1,40
1,43
1,45
1,45
1,44
1,44
Finland
1,44
1,47
1,50
1,48
1,50
1,51
1,51
1,51
1,51
1,51
Sweden
3,05
2,97
2,88
2,92
3,01
2,74
2,77
2,83
2,84
2,81
United Kingdom 13,32 15,79 16,41 16,86 17,96 17,75 17,82 16,80 17,25 17,23
TOTAL EU 15 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0
Source: Values calculated using data from Table A1
26
Elisabeta Jaba, Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Table A3.
Descriptive statistics for weights of UE-15 country exports related to
total UE-15 export from 196-2005
Standard
Variation
UE 15*countries
Mean
Median
deviation
coefficient
Belgium
2,92
2,90
0,06
2,22
Denmark
2,01
2,00
0,03
1,35
Greece
1,52
1,46
0,13
8,53
Ireland
1,23
1,25
0,25
20,16
Austria
2.44
2.41
0.08
3.41
Luxembourg
0.25
0.25
0.02
8.67
Finland
1.49
1.51
0.02
1.59
Sweden
2.88
2.86
0.10
3.64
Portugal
1.40
1.42
0.05
3.45
Group 1 of UE 15 counties
16.15
16.07
0.29
1.82
Germany
23.98
23.54
1.70
7.11
Group 1 of UE 15 counties
23.98
23.54
1.70
7.11
Spain
7.58
7.38
0.70
9.21
Netherlands
4.82
4.84
0.15
3.09
Group 1 of UE 15 counties
12.40
12.26
0.82
6.61
Italy
13.93
13.90
0.16
1.14
France
16.81
16.72
0.32
1.90
United Kingdom
16.72
17.05
1.37
8.20
Group 1 of UE 15 counties
47.46
47.66
0.95
2.00
*Countries were grouped in 4 clusters using Hierarchical Clusters Method.
Table A4.
Grouping weights of UE-15 countries exports by clusters using
Hierarchical Clusters Method
Cluster Components
Grouping
of
Grouping of
Grouping of
UE-15
countries
by
5
countries
by
4
countries
by 3
Countries
clusters
clusters
clusters
Belgium
1
1
1
Denmark
1
1
1
Greece
1
1
1
Ireland
1
1
1
Luxembourg
1
1
1
Austria
1
1
1
Portugal
1
1
1
Finland
1
1
1
Sweden
1
1
1
Spain
3
3
1
Netherlands
3
3
1
Germany
2
2
2
France
4
4
3
United Kingdom
4
4
3
Italy
5
4
3
SPSS 13 output for Table A3 data.
CORNELIU MUNTEANU 
COMPARATIVE STUDY ON MANAGERS’
TOLERANCE FOR AMBIGUITY
Tolerance of ambiguity can be defined as the tendency to perceive
ambiguous situations as desirable; intolerance is the tendency to interpret
ambiguous situations as sources of threat. An ambiguous situation is that
one which cannot de adequately structured or categorized by a person
because of the lack of sufficient cues. The problem of identifying
tendencies to perceive a situation as a source of threat may be approached
on two levels: phenomenological and operative.
Based on this psychological structure, an empirical analysis was
developed in order to compare tolerance of ambiguity between groups of
managers. A total group of 104 managers is divided into subgroups by
age, gender, functional area, hierarchical level, and entrepreneur status.
Final results indicate differences of ambiguity tolerance between age
groups, and functional groups; there are no major differences between
gender groups, hierarchical groups or entrepreneurial groups.
Introduction
Ambiguity is a characteristic which can be found in an
occupational environment in different degrees. Thus, on one hand, some
jobs are characterized by an almost continuous change of context and
expectations to which the employee must answer. On the other hand,
other jobs are characterized by a repetitive confruntation with very
similar or even identical situations.
In a similar way, people react differently to ambiguous situations.
At one extreme point there are the ones who feel comfortable and
consider the new situations to be challenges which arouse their
ambitions. They react in a favourable way when unexpected turnings
come up and they adapt quickly to changing requirements. At the other
extreme are the ones who get nervous, frustrated or even hostile to new
situations. In many cases they become aggressive to the persons whom
they consider the source of the change.

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 27–40
28
Corneliu Munteanu
The conceptual frame
The tolerance of ambiguity is the tendency to perceive the
ambigous situations as desirable. Intolerance, on the other hand, is the
tendency to interpret the ambiguous situations as a threat. At least two of
the elements of this definition need further explanations, namely: 1)
ambiguous situation and 2) interpret the ambiguous situations as a
threat.
An ambigous situation is that context which cannot be defined or
described properly due to the lack of available clues. Thus, there can be
identified three categories of ambiguous situations: 1) completely new
situations, which do not present any familiar clues, 2) very complex
situations, when the number of clues to be analysed is too big for the
human intellectual capability and 3) the contradictory situations, when
the clues are equivocal and suggest the framing of the same situation in
different structural patterns. In short, the three situations can be labelled
as newness, complexity and unsolvability.
The difficulty of defining, or, more precisely, of identifying the
tendency to perceive a situation as a source of threat can be approached
in several ways. The people’s reactions to stimuli have two levels: the
phenomenological and the operational level. The first level is that of
perceptions and feelings and the second is represented by the open
expression to the natural and social objects. In other words, on one hand,
people perceive, evaluate and feel, on the other hand behave in one way
or the other depending on the relation with the environment. In order to
obtain a correct estimation of the tolerance or intolerance shown by a
person towards ambiguity there should be analysed the reactions on both
levels, the phenomenological and operational.
From this point onward, the next step is to identify the reactions
which show that the situation is perceived as a threat. The palette of
possible reactions to threats can be divided into two categories, namely:
1) obedience, acceptance and 2) arguments, disagreement. By aceptance,
the person admits that the situation is an inevitable phenomenon, that he
cannot change. As a consequence, he has nothing else to do but to accept
it as such, even if it causes cognitive dissonance. In case of disagreement,
the person makes a phenomenological or operational deed through which
he changes the reality according to his wishes. He either restructures the
information so as not to perceive the threat, or he behaves in such a
manner so as to put away the source of threat.
Thus, if one of the following types of reactions should come up,
we can deduce that the person is feeling threatened. There are four
possibilities: 1) phenomenological disagreement (suppression, denial), 2)
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
29
phenomenological acceptance (anxiety and psychic distress), 3)
operational dispute (destructive and reconstructive) or 4) operational
acceptance (slip away, avoid). If we relate this to the ones mentioned
above, we can say that when these reactions are caused by new
situations, complex or impossible to solve, the person shows intolerance
of ambiguity.
The level of tolerance of ambiguity can be considered a
permanent variable. The description of the reactions caused by different
levels of tolerance can be done on three steps, namely:
 Low tolerance. The person feels at difficulty when facing the
ambiguous situation and shows excessive anger and frustration. He
adapts very slowly and expresses verbally the hostility towards the
people in leading positions, who control the evolution of the
situation.
 Average tolerance. The person reacts with moderate anger and
frustration to ambiguous situations but adapts to them with an
acceptable speed. The personal, interpersonal or group reactions
due to the psychic discomfort are not noticeable. The people who
are in leading positions can be the target of mean allusions,
comments or sarcastic jokes – which do not go beyond the limit of
aggressiveness.
 High tolerance. The person reacts without any anger or frustration.
He adapts quickly to the change, without any consequences to the
personal, interpersonal or group onsequences. On the contrary, he
feels even more comfortable when the context is changed.
The issue of tolerance towards ambiguity and the behaviour
implications has been approached in different fields. There are
approaches from the educational field, which discuss the control of
ambiguity when working with pupils and students. (Frenkel-Brunswik,
1949; Owen and Sweeney, 2005). There are also approaches which
regard the reactions in different contexts, the most frequently met one is
the field of financial placement. This kind of studies analyse the
differences between the reactions of the two sexual groups (Schubert,
Gysler, Brown and Brachinger, 2000).
This study limits its investigation area to the level of the business
men, on the managerial levels 1 (general manager), 2 (deputy manager)
and 3 (department manager).
30
Corneliu Munteanu
Research hypotheses
This study aims to investigate whether there are differences in
the attitude towards ambiguity of the persons from management
positions in business.
The first issue regards the differences in tolerance depending on
age. As people grow older, the physiological paramenters are changing,
especially the ones related to information processing. The volume of new
information which can be processed in a time unit is decreasing.
Consequently, older people feel a stronger sensation of discomfort in
ambiguous situations compared to younger persons.
H1: The level of tolerance of ambiguity differs according to the age
group
A second issue refers to the existence of differences in tolerance
depending on sex. Previous studies have proved that there are such
differences. But the meaning of the differences differs depending on
the decisional context. It has been noticed that women are more
intolerant to ambiguity when the decisional context is related to
investment, but they are more tolerant when the context is related to
insurance.
H2: The level of tolerance of ambiguity differs according to sex
The third issue regards the existence of differences depending on the
field. The management positions were divided into three categories:
technical, financial-accountancy and management-marketing. The
variability of the contexts is very different between the three fields.
At one extreme there is the financial-accountancy field, in which the
situations present a very repetitive character, novelty and ambiguity
are rarely met. At the other extreme there is the managementmarketing field. In this field, novelty is almost permanent: new
clients, new products, new competitives, new employees. The
technical field occupies the intermediary level; novelty and
ambiguity are present, but more rare than in the field of
management-marketing. As a consequence, it is expected that
persons with different levels of tolerance of ambiguity will choose
the three fields.
H3: The level of tolerance of ambiguity differs according to the field:
tehnical, financial-accountancy, management-marketing
The fourth issue regards the analysis of the differences depending on
the hierarchical level. Thus, the degree of ambiguity that a leading
person has to face increases along with the hierarchical level. The
persons on top positions must face much more complex situations
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
31
than the persons from lower level. A general manager must have
control over technical problems, as well as over economic or psychosocial problems. A technical manager faces only technical problems,
while a department manager has an even more limited level of
problems.
H4: The level of tolerance of ambiguity differs according to the
hierarhical level
In the end, the last issue regards the existence of differences
depending on the entrepreneurial status. Unlike managers, the
entrepreneurs face a higher level of ambiguity. We consider first of
all the uncertainty from the moments at the beginning of the
business, an uncertainty that the managers do not have to face. Also,
there are differences as regards the level of responsability. An
entrepreneur undertakes the responsibility related to all categories of
people included in the organization; the manager is responsible only
in front of the shareholders.
H5: The level of tolerance of ambiguity differs according to the
entrepreneurial status
We present in the following the empirical investigation that was
done starting from the five hypotheses of research.
The research method
Taking into consideration the fact that the tolerance of ambiguity
can appear at phenomenological level as well as operational, the most
appropriate method to test each of the five hypotheses is the survey. The
population included in the survey are the managers from the three
hierarchical levels, from companies of private capital as well as
companies with state capital or joint ventures.
Sample
Taking into consideration the exploratory character of research of
the survey, there was chosen a sample of more than 100 persons who
work in private companies, as well as in public companies (firms or )
from the town of Iasi. At the end of the data gathering, 104 persons out of
the 117 participants proved to have the characteristics of the population
to be surveyed. The other 13 persons were working either for non-profit
organizations or they were from the managerial level 4 (office managers)
and they were excluded from the data processing.
32







Corneliu Munteanu
The structure of the final sample is the following:
by sex: 35 women (33.7%) and 69 men (66.3%);
by age: 41 persons under 35 years old (39.4%), 23 persons between
36-45 years old (22.1%), 31 persons between 46-55 years old
(29.8%) and 9 persons over 55 years old (8.7%);
by level of education: 1 high school graduate (1.0%), 69 university
graduates (66.3%), 27 following or graduates of post-graduate
programmes (26.0%) and 7 following or graduates of PHD
programmes (6.7%);
by field of activity: 33 persons from the technical field (31.7%), 19
persons from Finances-Accountancy (18.3%) and 35 persons from
Management and Marketing (33.7%). The general managers were
not included in a certain field (17 persons).
by hierarchical level: 17 general managers (16.3%), 40 deputy
managers (38.5%) and 47 department managers (45.2%);
by entrepreneurial profile: 19 entrepreneurs (18.3%) and 85
managers (81.7%). The persons who own shares, but who have
become shareholders after the state company turned into private
company, were not given the status of entrepreneurs.
by type of company: 37 persons work for state companies, 48 în
private companies şi 19 in joint ventures (private and state property)
The selection of the companies to be involved was done
according to the possibility to approach the general manager, whom was
asked to cooperate in the accomplishment of the study.
Data gathering
For the data gathering, it was necessary to go to the premises of
the involved companies. Each person was interviewed alone, so as not to
appear negative influences from the social environment. At the beginning
of the meeting there was presented the purpose of the study – namely, a
comparative study on different categories of managers – it was also
mentioned that there would not be required confidential information and
they were asked whether they agreed to participate. Once the agreement
was given, there was filled in the questionnaire which contains 19 basic
items and a set of identification items.
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
33
The research instrument
In order to make the study operational, the research instrument
was a questionnaire with 19 items formulated on the Likert scale, with 5
steps. The questionnaire is an adaptation of the set of questions proposed
by Budner (1962), a set which is often mentioned in the articles and
studies from the same field (Ghosh and Crain, 1993; Ghosh and Manash,
1992, 1997).
If the interviewed person accepts the challenge of novelty,
complexity or unsolvability, we can deduce he/she is tolerant to
ambiguity. If, on the contrary, he/she rejects the challenges which come
up in these three situations, we deduce he/she is intolerant to ambiguity.
Acceptance or rejection can appear either on phenomenological or on
operational level..
For the ranking, the possible answers were given numbers from 1
to 5, taking into consideration the answer expected in case of tolerance,
so that a TOLAMB score will show the existence of high tolerance of
ambiguity, and the small score will show low tolerance.
We present in the folowing part, as an example, two of the items
which were used, for which the interviewed person was asked to mention
the degree in which he agreed or not to each statement.
"I like more the parties or the business cocktails where there
are many unknown people, rather than the ones where I know
almost all the guests.”
disagreement disagreement neutral
agreement
agreement
total
average
average
total
From the point of view of the tipology of the reaction to ambiguity, this
item presents itself in the following way:
Situation
level
Reaction of
Tolerant
intolerance
answer
complex,
phenomenological Fight against
agreement
new
1. „I would be afraid to pilot alone an orbital space ship.”
disagreement disagreement neutral
agreement
agreement
total
average
average
total
From the point of view of the tipology of the reaction to ambiguity, this
item presents itself as follows:
Situation
level
Intolerant
Tolerant
Reaction
answer
new
phenomenological Fight against
disagreement
34
Corneliu Munteanu
All the 9 items describe this kind of situations, characterized by novelty,
complexity or unsolvability.
Results
There was calculated a global score for TOLAMB tolerance, by
adding the point obtained for all the 19 items.
1. The first comparison of the TOLAMB scores is done between
the age groups, in order to see whether there are significant differences.
The TOLAMB averages for the age groups are shown in the table below.
Table no 1
TOLAMB score for age groups
Age group
under 35 years old
36-45 years old
46-55 years old
56 years old and above
Number of
interviewed
persons
41
23
31
9
TOLAMB
Standard
Average
deviationn
57.98
8.06
52.91
6.91
53.71
8.49
52.11
8.25
There can be noticed a significant difference between the group of
people under 35 years old (the TOLAMB average is 57.98) and the other
three groups. Because of this there was done the T Test for each pair of
age groups. There are 6 pairs in all. The significant results are shown in
Table 2.
Table no 2
Selective conclusions of the T test for age groups, for TOLAMB
Compared groups
under 35
under 35
under 35
36-45
36-45
46-55
56 and over
56 and over
Degrees of
freedom
62
70
48
52
T -test
T-critical
2.535
2.174
1.969
-0.368
2.000
2.000
2.021
2.000
The results from the table underline the idea that the persons
under 35 years old are more tolerant to ambiguity than the ones over
35 years old.
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
35
There are no major differences between the three groups of over
35 years old people. Obviously, the first argument which supports this
difference regards the physiological characteristics of the age. Being
younger, these persons have more energy available to be consumed in
order to adapt to ambiguous situations. As we grow older, the volume of
information we are able to process is smaller and smaller.
Secondly, we can discuss about the argument of non-investment.
The persons over 35 years old, who have accumulated informational
stock in order to create contextual frames, are less willing to give up the
advantages given by this information and start from scratch. Giving up
what you have already accomplished with great effort is an unpleasant
experience from the psychological point of view. We can also bring up a
secondary argument and that is the presence of the experience curve
phenomenon. Once we create ourselves competitive advantages, even
towards our kind, we are not willing to change operational frame and
start again from the top of the curve..
Taking into consideration the differences between the age groups,
we went on with the investigation of a possible correlation between the
two variables. The scatter plot and the regression line are shown in the
figure below. In order to neutralize the influence of the difference
between the measuring units of the two variables, there were used the
standard values.
Figure 1. The scatter plot for the standard values
for AGE and TOLAMB
36
Corneliu Munteanu
As it can be seen from the graphic representation, there is no
strong correlation between the two variables. This is also shown by the
small value of the Pearson correlation coefficient, R 2  0,080 . After
combining the two results we can state that the tolerance of ambiguity
decreases significantly around the age of 35 years old. After this age,
there is kept a relatively constant level.
2. For testing of the second hypothesis, the interviewed persons
are divided according to the sex. As it can be seen from the table below,
the averages of the TOLAMB scores for men and women are almost
identical, this is why we can state that women and men have a similar
level of tolerance of ambiguity.
Table no 3
Sex
Female
Male
TOLAMB situation according to the sex
TOLAMB
Number of
interviewed
Standard
average
persons
difference
35
69
54.49
55.38
1.31
1.02
The calculated value of the T Test is -0.521, smaller than the
table value, fact that forces us to accept the null hypothesis: there are
no significant differences between the female and male business persons as
regards the tolerance of ambiguity.
3. The third comparison is between groups of persons depending
on the field of activity: technical, financial-accountancy and
management-marketing. Taking into consideration the different character
of the activities, we suppose that the persons who work in an
environment with a strong normative character, such as accountancy, are
less tolerant than the ones working in an environment characterised by
uncertainty, such as the persons working in marketing. The averages of
the TOLAMB scores for the 3 groups are shown in the table below.
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
37
Table no 4
TOLAMB situation according to the field of activity
TOLAMB
Number of
Field of activity
interviewed
Standard
average
persons
deviation
Technical
33
54.64
8.56
Finance-accounting
19
52.74
7.26
Management35
57.00
8.55
marketing
At the level of the sample, the difference between the average
scores confirm the hypothesis that the persons who work in the field of
management-marketing are more tolerant to ambiguity than the ones
from the finance-accounting field. But the value of the T Test at a level
of trust of 95% does not allow us to state that the two averages are
different. Nevertheless, if we reduce the level of trust to 93%, the values
of the T Test allow us to state that the persons working in
Management-Marketing are more tolerant in comparison to the ones
from Finance-Accounting. Also, as it could be foreseen, the tolerance of
ambiguity of the persons with technical training is at the intermediary
level, between the two extremes.
4. The following comparison, to test the fourth hypothesis, is
done between the three managerial levels of the people from the sample.
Table no 5
TOLAMB situation according to the managerial levels
TOLAMB
Number of
Managerial level
interviewed
Standard
average
persons
difference
General manager
17
54.59
7.58
Deputy manager
40
54.43
7.81
Department manager
47
55.81
8.84
As it can be seen, the averages of the scores are very close, thus
there are not differences, almost at all, between the three hierarchic
levels, as regards tolerance. This result denies the research hypothesis
stated at the beginning, which said that on the higher hierarchical levels
there are persons with a higher level of tolerance of ambiguity.
38
Corneliu Munteanu
5. Finally, the fifth comparison is the one made between the
group of entrepreneurs – who founded and are shareholders in the
company they are working – and the group of managers. The literature
in the field mentions the tolerance of ambiguity as one of the main
characteristics of the entrepreneurs, next to the tolerance of risk, the
innovating spirit, the motivation to self-acomplishment, faith in the
personal ability to initiate events and the independent spirit. When it
comes to managers, the list of characteristics includes a sum of
particularities – ability to communicate and socialize, strong motivation
to success, perseverance, honesty, and so on – among which the tolerance
of ambiguity is not to be found.
The following table shows a synthesis of the results of the
comparisons between the two groups. For the comparisons, there were
chosen only the persons from the 1st and 2nd managerial levels, as all the
entrepreneurs are on these levels in the companies in which they are
shareholders.
Table no 6
TOLAMB situation according to the entrepreneurial profile
Entrepreneurial profile
Number of
TOLAMB
interviewed
average
Standard
persons
deviation
entrepreneur
15
54.47
7.67
manager
42
54.48
7.77
As it can be seen, the result is surprising as it does not match the
theories in the field. At the level of the sample, the almost perfect
equality between the two groups shows that the entrepreneurs are as
tolerant to ambiguity as the managers.
Conclusions
There is no doubt that the results of this research, in a
preponderently exploratory stage, should be interpreted only as
orientative. The first limit is given by the sample of participants. Even if
the total volume overpasses 100 persons, what ranks our conclusions
under the laws of big numbers, when we make the divisions in smaller
groupd, some of them fall below the level of 30-40 persons. The second
limit comes from the structure of the sample. The participants come only
from the town of Iasi, fact that does not allow us to extrapolate the
conclusions to the level of the national population of company managers.
But beyond these barriers, we must underline the results which
could open up new, more detailed researches in the future.
Comparative study on managers’ tolerance for ambiguity
39
This result underlines the differences that were noticed, as regards
the tolerance of ambiguity, between persons under 35 years old and the
ones over this limit. It is a novelty we have never found in the literature
of the field. This result could be used for a better employment of staff.
Thus, it is desirable to employ the persons under 35 years old on
positions characterized by a high level of ambiguity – namely: novelty,
complexity, unsolvability. They are the ones who feel good in these
situations and we suppose, will have good results. As they grow older
and overpass this limit, they should be moved to positions which involve
a reduced level of ambiguity.
The second significant result regards the differences between the
persons educated in the Financial-Accountancy field and the ones
educated in the Management-Marketing field. Taking into consideration
the differences we noticed, there can be elaborated prescriptions related
to the professional orientaton of the students. For the students from the
economical field, the orientation towards the two mentioned fields can be
motivated by this characteristic of their personality. But under no
circumstances is it recommended to employ in the commercial field the
persons with a low level of tolerance of ambiguity.
Thirdly, it is worth studying in future researches the existence of
differences at the level of this characteristic, between managers and
entrepreneurs. If the result of this research is confirmed, we could
witness the contradiction of a presumption widely used in the business
management nowadays, namely that the entrepreneurs, compared to the
managers, have a higher level of tolerance of ambiguity.
References
1. Budner, S., Intolerance of Ambiguity as a Personality Variable,
Journal of Personality, 30/1962, pp.29-50.
2. Cohen, M.D. and J.G. March, Leadership and Ambiguity: The
American College President, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1974.
3. Einhorn, H.J. and R.M. Hogarth, Confidence in Judgment:
Persistence of the Illusion of Validity, Psychological Review,
85/1978, pp. 395-416.
4. Frenkel-Brunswick, E., Intolerance of Ambiguity as an Emotional
and Perceptual Personality Variable, Journal of Personality,
18/1949, pp. 108-143.
5. Ghosh, D. and R.R. Manash, Risk Attitude, Ambiguity Intolerance
and Decision Making: An Exploratory Investigation, Decision
Science Journal, 23/1992, pp. 431-444.
40
Corneliu Munteanu
6. Ghosh, D. and R.R. Manash, Risk, Ambiguity, and Decision Choice,
Decision Sciences, 28/1997, pp. 81-102.
7. Ghosh, D. and T.L. Crain, Structure of Uncertainty and Decision
Making: An Exploratory Investigation, Decision Science Journal,
24/1993, pp. 789-807.
8. Heath, C. and A. Tversky, Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and
Competence in Choice under Uncertainty, Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty, 4/1991, pp. 5-28.
9. Kahneman, D., P. Slovic and A. Tversky, Judgment Under
Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press,
1982.
10. Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, The Psychology of Preferences,
Scientific American, 246/1982, pp. 160-173.
11. Johnson, J. and P. Powell, Decision Making, Risk, and Gender: Are
Managers Different?, British Journal of Management, 5/1994, pp.
123-138.
12. Mosakowski, E., Strategy Making Under Causal Ambiguity:
Conceptual Issues and Empirical Evidence, Organization Science,
8/1997, pp. 414-434.
13. Norton, R., Measurement of Ambiguity Tolerance, Journal of
Personality Assessment, 39/1975, pp. 607-619.
14. Owen, W. and R. Sweeney, Ambiguity Tolerance, Performance,
Learning, and Satisfaction: A Research Direction, working paper,
2005, University of South Alabama.
15. Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty:
Heuristics and Biases, Science, 185/1974, pp. 1124-1131.
ALEXANDRU TRIFU
INFORMATION THE CORE FACTOR OF THE
ECONOMICS OF KNOWLEDGE OR OF IT
ECONOMICS ?
The fact that information is both an actual motor factor of every
phenomena and processes that occur in the human society and a practical
inexhaustible good, without which the existence and the evolution of
mankind can not be conceived, makes necessary the passage to a superior
level of knowledge, better said to that level able to allow us to precise:
whom are information useful to? and under what form they
(knowledge, ideas) are involved into the organization, radical
transformation and functioning of society – concretely of actual
economy -? These are questions that emerge from the fundamental
interrogations of any human action – what? how much? how? whom do
they produce for? but also from understanding the economic factor as an
indestructible synthesis between energy, matter (substance) and
information and which gives to the latter its attribute of the most
important factor of modern economy besides nature (land), labor force
and capital.
In order to incorporate all these into a coherent structure, let us
start with bringing into evidence the two great directions of idea
materialization and the knowledge with a newness characteristic – with
an express reference to the latest decades.
I. “The innovation policy” – it consists of the fact that the
innovation activity, of making use of ideas and new concepts embody a
main coordinate of the governmental policy that got shaped after the two
“oil shocks” of the 8th decade of the last century, a coordinate that has
been taken as a new superior stage of the contemporary scientific and
technical revolution able to assure the general progress of the society, not
only by achieving completely new products but especially by
transforming, improving the techniques and technologies of their
functioning and of the products and services already in action. In this
activity and in this area of creation are drawn the most important
scientific and research work resources able to materialize information as
a factor of production.
Therefore, it becomes essential the preoccupation of getting
knowledge on the concrete modalities of obtaining those goods and

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 41–54
42
Alexandru Trifu
services, those methods and techniques of production that are able to
have reduced costs and to alternatively use the resources that are
abundant, in order to assure the increasing of labor productivity in the
first place and, as causa finalis necessary to superpose with causa
efficiens, greater and more diversified outputs. Besides the great
achievements mankind already had known, the impact of robotization,
automatization and mechanization in the highest degree of the production
processes, satellite and cable television, in fact the new media
technologies and computers and many small innovations and
improvements with a certain influence on our lifestyle became obvious;
all of them became a part of our daily life, contributed to the permanent
change regarding the improvement of the life standard and the manner of
connecting the individual or the organization structure to the new
challenge of the economic, social and political environment.
Briefly, the quintessence of these two directions of practical
utilization of knowledge, ideas of the messages of newness refers as a
generical term, to “machine”, that becomes the best ally of man, in order
to facilitate his labor, to increase productivity and of course, finally, to
obtain the much wished economic growth. However, one must
understand and stress upon the fact that “the machine” is not the one that
destroys, nor eliminates the working places, i.e. it must not be considered
the monistic cause of unemployment (even the use of the policy of
featherbedding = diminishing the working time owed to the
automatization of activities but without loosing the working places) is an
argument in this respect). Technical innovation and progress actually
produce the increase of benefits in certain sectors and basic branches of
national economy. They liberate a part of the labor force who, through
the
specific mechanism of the market economy, is displaced,
recomposed and utilized for the development of other sectors (such as the
tertiary or quaternary) of economy, reminding us the principles of
communicating drains used by Léon Walras when he constructed the
theory of the general equilibrium.
Notwithstanding its resistance, opposition, malconception and the
worry for the general technical progress, it has created more than
destructed, its positive effects prevailed and still prevails over the
negative ones, it contributed (and the statistical data confirm it) to the
increase of the degree of employment, it produced permanent renewal,
remodeling and adaptations of the structure of the economic activities, it
changed the system of social and cultural values within society. A
perfectly normal thing in our present epoch since the individuals are no
longer simple executing robots of goods and services who make life
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 43
better, but they are bio-psycho-social beings who enter multiple
relationships with other people and who, due to the feedback resulted
from the materialization of the technical innovations and progress,
change the level of their knowledge of their daily lifestyle, diversify the
targets to be reached, the goals that surpass the simple production of
goods and services and reach other levels of the existentialism of Homo
socio-oeconomicus.
II. IT & C revolution - it forms the second but also the most
representative direction of manifestation of information implementing
into the present period. In fact, the present practical manifestation is an
emergence and ascendant development of the former, since one of its
significant means of the technical innovations and progress in the latest
years underlined above, is represented by: “computer and artificial
intelligence”. MEANS that became essential in achieving with the
highest functionality and with smaller efforts from the human factor the
entire scale of GOALS suggested to be reached. The duality means-goal
(4) like each of the two categories mentioned apart can not be separated
by the content of the term information, it therefore represents
knowledge, ideas, data used by the human personality within a rational
process characterized by an extraordinary capacity of achieving products
that come to supply and to facilitate activities, however limited, of man.
For the permanent use and improvement of the activity with the
computer we encounter a paradox. On one hand, we have to work with a
device – the personal computer – that does not differ too much as a
manner of being exhibited and as a price from various supplies on the
market. Thus, we are focused on the first direction of technical progress
implementation. However, at the same time, the impact that gives value
to the device is the one in connection with the manner of configuration
and the performances of the computer, to the soft used, qualitative
characteristics that allow the user to be completely satisfied as well as a
practically an unlimited scale of operations within cyber-world. This
latter aspect is relevant and determining in supporting the present
revolution of IT, the support of the profound changes of the society in
general and of economy especially.
Practically, when buying a PC, the choice is not made according
to the manner of exhibition or color which is about the same with all
units, the choice is made according to the programs desired, on the
incorporated software, able to permit a large scale of uses and in various
domains by those who made use of this special category of products by
acting in a special market, the market of the IT. The best revealing
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Alexandru Trifu
example for this situation is that of the boom of Microsoft company
whose central “brains” – Bill Gates – the wealthiest man in the world just
because of this activity; focused his production strategy on producing
and launching logical programs – a domain where he proved to be the
best in the world, leaving the production of PC themselves to those who
were the most efficient producers on the Earth.
Ever since the early stage of IT and related to new IT, it
occurred the dual action of two assertions with logical character:
1. The law of Moore, attributed to Gordon Moore, one of the Intel
founders, who holds that the power of microprocessors is doubled
once in 18 months, at the same price.
2. The law of Metcalfe, after the name of Robert Metcalfe, the inventor
of Ethernet network, predominant in institutions and offices, and
based on the consideration that the value of a network rises with
the number of the users (knots) square raised.
To this suggestive adds with an empirical characteristic the
conception proposed by Alvin Toffler should be added (one of the many
other valuable opinions that may be reminded here), regarding the
society of the Third Wave, so that we may have a complete image of
one of the most relevant bases that assured the impetuous development
even the revolution of IT starting with the last decade of the past
century. The complex picture of the post-modern economy through the
passage from “the economy of the chimney” to the “industrial economy”
of the Second Wave, to the new type of economy foreseen by the great
American futurologist and sociologist Toffler consists of the following
“touches” of ideas, emerged from the mixture and adaptation of the ideas
of the American author to be found in his reference works, translated in
Romanian, too (18, 19).
- The revealing of the decisive role of the dynamic and permanent
flows of innovations. Developing this idea, an integrative system of
the policies referring to science and technique, to a replacement of
the weight focused in analysis not necessarily the one connected to
the achievement of innovations but especially of their diffusion or
spreading and utilization in the production of substantial
transformation in the entire scale of the applied technologies and
hence the beneficial influences upon the activities and the
phenomena that operate in the social and political life, is necessary.
- Knowledge that has become a vital factor of production that assures
the diminishing of the expenses and the consumption of the other
traditional production factors through investments corresponding as
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 45
volume and importance in knowledge, ideas, as well as in specific
corresponding technologies of obtaining them. The whole
mechanism of Third Wave should be considered within the trinity
human being-technique-environment, where man, with his
creation capacity and working power, becomes a supreme God for
the achievement and the development of tools and techniques for
getting the knowledge of the deepest and furthest components of the
surrounding nature, aiming to preserve the resources and riches from
the environment, but also for constructive re-directing the human
actions in reshaping ecological interdependence.
- The underlining of the process of the diminishing production and
markets by the transition to easily adaptable, non-centralized,
strongly IT-ed of organization and production forms, as well as to
considering the consumers as niches of society whose individualized
needs, definitely shaped and precise, should be approached as micromarkets having at their bases a rich amount of information directed
to the objective to be reached.
- The distinct accent placed on the fully integration of the technique
and economic systems, a change of the optics of approach of modern
management, taking into account the necessity of a dynamic,
systemic vision that requires integration, modeling, coordination of
various individual interests aiming at reaching the major objectives
of the society. In this respect it seems to me that Toffler’s idea
regarding the basic structures of any society: techno-sphere, sociosphere, info-sphere (m.u.) is significant. Info-sphere, since it is of
interests for us, radically modifies the content corresponding to the
Second Wave, as simple informational system of the industrial
society, through its transition to the non-centralization and nonregulation of media, especially by using in a great extent the new
digital technologies of production, communication and stocking up
of information, technologies that decisively influence the other
spheres of human civilization.
All these idea premises being exposed I still can not fully and
relevantly characterize the type of economy that may fold on the new
realities of the society we live in, being necessary one more element, in
fact the definite element, the embryo of the structural changes that have
mesmerized the traditional technical and economic paradigms. It is all
about Internet. Appeared as a produce of public power and of the daring
of the human spirit (ARPA-net of the 1969 supported and financed by the
Pentagon, being the first stage of this evolution), “the interface between
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Alexandru Trifu
networks” as it is literally translated the term “internet”, required much
less time to become predominant in the market (compared with other
great achievements in the field of communication, such as telephone,
radio and television), reaching the so called critical mass point in 1995
with 25 million users, year considered to be the one from where
everything in the construction of the information era started. What does
Internet mean?
- In the first place it is an instrument used by research workers and
university people for a proper and deeper documentation of their
studies research teams and projects, in their educational activity of
professional formation and of health (the last three elements being
the basic pieces of the “human capital” theory), as well as the
assurance of an operational communication, of idea and impression
exchange between them by means of electronic mail (e-mail or
couriel).
- However, the most important spreading and utilization the Internet
enjoyed in the non-academic world, the large mass of users and
entrepreneurs, a thing possible by simplifying the management and
the access to the network and practically achieved by creating in
1989 an informational system based on hypertext, briefly www
(World Wide Web), that assured the connection between the
computer (PC) and Web by means of some specialized soft
programs.
In this second category of evolution and utilization, the Internet
has become more communicative, transmitting better and faster the
sentiments and the intentions of the participants to the network,
becoming an indispensable instrument, the best channel for the
electronic trade, activities and operation and achievement of mass media,
activities regarding the financial market, insurance and banking, tourism
and culture, logistic in communications fields, due to an increased
interactivity and the direct possibilities of connection for everyone
interested to enter the network, either they are suppliers or clients,
producers, or developers, or providers of logical programs, financial
advisors or any type of providers of any type or quantity of information.
Through its entire scale of manifestation, the Internet provides wealth,
first of all for the economic agents involved in this activity and also for
the entire economy, advantages coming out from a growth and
diversification of the services that can be provided as well as due to the
fastness of operations through online, less within national and especially
trans-frontier frame at world level.
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 47
Having time and space comprised at maximum, the most faithful
expression to reveal this ultimate aspect is that of “shrinking world”. I
also must add the fact that the relation between the useful effects obtained
and the efforts used is definitely supra unitary attesting once more that if
you have the knowledge and the necessary abilities to “surf” on Internet
the gains can be substantial (highest), with minimum efforts. Last but not
least, talking of the firms bearing the new IT, placed face to face with
other firms that produce economic goods in a more careful analysis, one
notices their market (in exchange) value in relation with their carrying
value, essential aspects in remarking their performances in the market,
that the report is obviously bigger and more dynamic in the case of the
former category of firms compared with the others (for example in the
special literature, at the end of the latest decade, in the case of Microsoft,
the relation was 13 compared with General Motors that recorded only
1,6).
As a network among networks, Internet has that great advantage
to operate in a world of non-regulations in the field of communications,
having no central operator (firm, organization or state) to implement
the decisions, being a produce only of human intelligence and of
intensive understanding and mutual collaboration in the field of science.
The gratuitousness or the relative gratuitousness and therefore the
accessibility to various sites of Internet corroborated with the movement
of “free soft” (a term introduced and processed by the Finnish Linus
Torvalds) attracted and still attracts impressively people who wish to
utilize the network and to gain, to reach their goals. Thus, the gates open
so that the big mass should accede in a global unlimited manner to the
benefits of Internet, the premises that users will come to dominate the
administrators of the network being created.
Internet became the most efficient tool that affects whatever
markets and domains from economy and society in general, assuring a
tentacle-like, tree-like evolution, always ascendant and in an impressive
dynamics, an evolution still untouched by any of the great previous
discoveries in the filed of communication (the term of hyper-growth
introduced by Forrester Research became a perfect label for this trend)
starting from the level of organizing structures whose vertebral column
should become, up to the level of the entire society, seen as a reticular
structure, of post-modern nature.
And, since the understanding of communication, of present
knowledge by means of Internet is set on the praxis-logical mechanism
MEANS-GOALS, exactly like in the case of the approach of the
significance of the Economics, and of economy in its whole, I shall
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Alexandru Trifu
have to approach, in the case of the present analysis, in the case of the
definitely individualized elements, the scientific level of nature, the
characteristics of the economy we live in, in fact, the core and the
structure of resistance of the problems debated, to see what sort of
economy an entire beach of contemporary thinkers referred and go on
referring to.
Since I talked of the great importance of Internet in changing the
classical paradigms in economy, the first nominations regarding the
economy at the cross of the Millennium II and III base on the
characteristics of the action of the “network among networks”.
1. “Speculative” economy, a concept held by the French Robert Boyer,
one of the creators of the theory of regulation, but who stresses only
the most important application of Internet, the one on the financial
markets. One assume on the fact that everything occurs in a virtual,
abstract world that offers large possibilities of motion and operation
for the main actor of this market, named speculator, more exactly the
speculator of the Internet’s world, the day trader. It is the
embodiment of the phonetic game of the Stock Exchange but who
does not perform deep analysis of the situation of the firms quoted in
this institution of financial market and that who, with only one click
away and based on the information received, accelerates the Stock
Exchange transactions, taking into account the trust or the lack of
trust for certain shares or currencies, speculations that are not based
on mechanisms or facts from the real economy, so that this profitable
business for the day traders is named “speculative bubble”, since in
contact with the realities of economic phenomena they break into
pieces and produces opposite effects (massive sales of shares
resulted in decreasing their value) with significant influence on the
entire market of capitals. And, in this way and of this situation, just
the managers and the companies that recorded severe deficits of their
budgets want to make a profit by using some rapid ways of getting
rich through financial speculations, as the Stock Market bubbles are
(la boulle in French).
2. Neteconomy, a term taken from American literature where net
economy signifies in a generic concentrated form the total
commercial exchanges on-line and in its entire complexity it refers
to the total Internet applications i.e. of this world virtual public
space, with the nature of a vast porto-franco implemented to the
level of organizing culture and whose reticule-like elongation
comprised all fields of the economic and social life. As it is easily
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 49
noticed, in this case too, the analysis is focused on an ultra-modern
modality and direction of Internet communication, it is true,
perceived as a vital artery of IT and, on this base, the “motor” of the
informational society, as well as on the stress upon the importance
and the valences of the electronic (online) trade and who’s future
evolution can not be exactly estimated for the time being. The
oscillating area of appreciation has as idea extremities on one hand
the believe that Internet can prove to be also a two edged sword in
the meaning of the appearance of a superstructure of following and
adjustment of everything that occurs in the cyber- world, and, on the
other hand, the conviction that soon, the most common and routine
trade transactions, the access to companies or firms difficult to
connect with at present, as well as the fact that the small and middle
sized business will be able to access and in this way to get access in
the markets of the entire world, all these will be possible due to the
free and global communication that is the technology and culture of
the Internet.
The only certain thing is that there is no moment to raise the
problem of giving up Internet and that, as a consequence to a
permanent confrontation between the interests of the sellers
(suppliers) and those of the consumers (users) and to the selfadjustments of the system and the improvements in the field of
technology and of the feed back due to the impact the realities of the
globalized and globalizing information have on the components with
technical communication character, we shall witness a continuous
action of modifying the concrete manner of modeling, adjusting and
functioning of the whole reticular system achieved and lead by
Internet.
3. The Economy of Information versus the New Economy of
Knowledge – (not withstanding that taking into account the
overwhelming importance of this first element – knowledge – may
be also written on capital letters). We find ourselves in the situation
nearest the most accurate and realistic characterization of the
defining features of the economy of the new epoch we live in.
However, in this ultimate situation, too, talking a priori, the first
concept has no big chances of victory, taking into consideration only
the following arguments:
- information, the way I shaped it at the beginning of the present paper,
is a message or a system of coded data, a communication between an
endowed with relevance and the resulted as a consequence of reality
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Alexandru Trifu
representation, legitimated operation as it was underlined among
many others by the American researcher John Naisbitt (12) – author of
numerous works regarding the mega-tendencies of our time – by the
reasoning of human thinking, by its possibilities of uninterrupted
creativity and by innovating reflecting conception, attribute and
reconstruction of the objective reality by each subject, that is, briefly,
due to knowledge. Certainly, thinking is another thing than reality
but the process of abstract thinking permanently assures ever raising
value knowledge, is capable of complexity, refinement and practically
an infinity of problems and opinions by which means the human mind
adapts continuously at the realities of the surrounding world.
- information does not represent anything else but the instruments,
weapons of the adequate image of the technologies evolution,
therefore of those actually induced by the informational evolution that
change the entire development of the economic acts and deeds and of
the actors participating to the economic and social life of a certain
society.
- Last, but not least, the idea to avoid the somewhat simplistic
cataloguing from only one stand point of the social and economic
development, focusing on only one factor, getting a monistic vision on
the characteristics of economy we live in and we must permanently
develop. The world where we unfold today our activity, is complex,
diversified, where the barriers between the economic and social fields
vanished but where time and space contract, everything gets a higher
velocity, dynamism and ascending trend and supposes not only more
characteristic elements but also profoundness – qualitative elements
that actually change “the game” within economy and most properly
express the power of the changes that occur in the society of our days.
So that, the term, the concept which in our opinion has a gain of
cause and may best shape the economy of the present era is the New
Economy of Knowledge. It is new since it appeared on a superior level
on mankind’s evolutionist spiral, since it is the materialization of an
impressing jump forward and of a deep re-modeling and creative
redefining versus the existing society of the last decades of the 20th
century and much different from the industrial economy we experienced
for more than 200 years. The new IT the marking exponents of the socalled TIME active complex (Telecommunications, Information technology, Media, Entertainment) will dominate the society of
information as it has been stressed during the recent World Summit for
the Informational Society, December 2003 in Geneva, fundamentally
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 51
mesmerizing the entire life style, the manner of learning, we improve and
work briefly unlocking the classical paradigms and constructing some
new, viable and global others.
It is new but not in the meaning of the French “new economy”
that hold the analysis of human behaviors on purely economic bases of
usefulness and interest, as well as the necessity of the state’s
disengagement and considering the market as a form of self-organization
of the society, not in the meaning of the New Classic Economy of the
rational anticipations but in a sense that is very near to the spirit of the
American New Economy that assured, especially through the activity of
the Chicago School, new directions of manifestations of reinforced
liberalism. This semantic approach is made evident especially in the case
of Internet, when I presented the free and global communication, the
relative easiness in “accessing and surfing” in various sites as well as
through the non-existence of certain structures of regulation and taxation
at neither national nor world level.
Out of the entire exposition up to this point, one may clearly
conclude the fact that am I talking about the knowledge at the cross
between the second and the third millenniums, due to the informational
revolution and afferent technologies, the digitalization of a large scale of
operations, the construction of the cyber world, the virtual spaces being
much superior to the scientific and technical revolution, in the sixth and
seventh decades of the past century, to say nothing of the huge distance
that separates the same actual achievements from those of the transition
to the “Second Wave” (of industrialization in the metaphoric vision of
the same A. Toffler), or, by the achievement of the “artificial work”, i.e.
of the modern technology for the XVIIIth and XIXth centuries, as they
have been shaped by the Austrian thinker Joseph von Sonnenfels, one of
the supporters of implementing “knowledge” in industry.
The impact of knowledge, of the new technological revolution in
the field of information (Internet in the front line), on Economy may be
synthesized in:
- assuring a substantial growth of the wealth created in a certain
economy (to remind the Aristotle’s vision on Economy);
- redefining of rarity as to the optimum allocation of resources. Both
as a production factor and as a public good, as an expression and an
instrument of knowledge, information represents an alternative of
high value for the classical production factors and also a
complementary element since when produced (rare, with a character
of uniqueness and newness) it may be multiplied without extra-costs
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Alexandru Trifu
for the benefit of all users, adding increased value and efficiency to
all categories of goods and tangible services as well as to the
intangible capitals (e.g. the human capital) to which they are
addressed. In the present context I even can make a theoretical
approach of high suggestion and significance between the factor
capital and formalized coded knowledge and between the factor
work and informal tacit knowledge (here is the bridge idea over the
concepts revealed at the beginning of this paper), elements that
become defining for the new economic model of knowledge.
The instruments of knowledge become the subjects of the new
configuration of the market system, a system that will have to suffer a
segmentation process like that of the functions of a firm (by
fragmentation and reticular phenomenon), due to the folding on the new
informational habits of the consumers (users), identified as some well
limited niches of the market.
- The informational chain and the base of the products of the digital
era are considered to be created through the development and the
interdependence up to superposition of free industries: multimedia,
telecommunications, the IT & C industry (hardware and software)
that give substance and dynamism to the TIME complex.
- The distribution of the created wealth that for the moment goes to
the developed countries of the world deepening the already existing
differences between North and South but which, with the
introduction of the new IT and the attraction into the global system
of communication, the users from the Third World and the transition
countries may be attenuated and the distribution should be done in a
more equitable way, a much eased phenomenon by the development
policies applied as it is shown by the studies, prognoses and the
previsions of the latest years carried out by OECD.
Connected to this last significant aspect of the shape of the New
Economics of Knowledge it is necessary to precise the fact that the
implementation of the modern technologies of information in the
countries with less developed economies one must take into account the
realities in the respective economies and (in the first place) the degree of
development, the way they are administrated and managed and the stage
the creation of the infrastructures necessary for the transition from the old
costing technologies and largely consuming of resources to the new
cheap, more efficient technologies with repercussions on the welfare of
the entire population by an organic integration into the general economic
and social system of the respective country. Irrespective the fact that they
Information the core factor of the Economics of Knowledge or of IT Eeconomics? 53
are products for the entire international community, having therefore a
global trans-frontier feature as I have already shown, information and
its afferent technologies are not uniformly spread and only a small part
of the world population can afford at this moment to get and use the top
achievements of the digital science and technology.
Finally, the economy I attempted to shape and that could be in a
full agreement with the new type of society we live in, is primly based on
knowledge, sustained work of promoting and creating and innovating,
on the flexibility of the organization structures of economy, on
adapting and changing the structure of economy and on stressing
and deepening competition (emulation).
References
Bohâlţeanu, Tudor-Gabriel, Informatică şi creştere economicăoportunităţi şi limite, Ed. Expert, Bucureşti, 2003. (Informatics and
Economic Growth).
2. Chowdhury, Nuimuddin, The Information Revolution and
Globalization: Seizing New Opportunities for Youth Employment,
intervenţie la Youth Employment Summit, 2002.
3. Didier, Michel, Economia: regulile jocului, Ed. Humanitas,
Bucureşti, 1998. (Economy : The Rules of the Game)
4. Druguş, Liviu, Radicalismul economic american, Ed. Institutului
Naţional pentru Societatea şi Cultura Română, Iaşi, 1998. (American
Economic Radicalism)
5. Godeluck, Solveig, Boom-ul neteconomiei. Cum bulversează
Internet-ul regulile jocului economic, Ed. Coresi, Bucureşti, 2000.
6. Houghton, John, Sheehan, Peter, A Primer on the Knowledge
Economy, CSES Working Paper no. 18, February 2000.
7. Kaul, Inge, Global Public Goods:A New Way to Balance the World’s
Books, Le Monde Diplomatique, June 2000.
8. Korten, David C., Viaţa după capitalism. Lumea post-corporatistă,
Ed. Antet, Bucureşti, 1999. (The Post-Corporatist World)
9. Kotler, Philip, Managementul marketingului, Ed. Teora, Bucureşti,
1997.
10. Lau, Lawrence, Economic Globalization and the Information
Technology Revolution, Stanford University, June 2000.
11. Leadbeater, Charles, Living on Thin Air :The New Economy, Viking,
London, 1999.
12. Naisbitt, John, Aburdene, Patricia, Anul 2000 - Megatendinţe, Ed.
Humanitas, Bucureşti, 1993.
1.
54
Alexandru Trifu
13. Ohiorhenuan, John F.E., Capacity Building Requirements for Global
Environmental Protection, Global Environment Facility, Washington
D.C., 1995.
14. Okita, Saburo, Cu faţa spre secolul 21, Ed, AGER-Economistul,
Bucureşti, 1992. (Towards XXI Century)
15. Rehner, Kurt, Ciber-marketing, Ed. ALL Educaţional, Bucureşti,
1999.
16. Spannaus, Nancy, The Roots of the American System :From
Cameralism, to the American System of Economics, American
Almanac, 1996.
17. Stiglitz, Joseph E., Globalizarea. Speranţe şi deziluzii, Ed.
Economică, Bucureşti, 2003.
18. Toffler, Alvin, Al Treilea Val, Ed. Politică, Bucureşti, 1981. (The
Third Wave).
19. Toffler, Alvin, Război şi antirăzboi. Supravieţuirea în zorii secolului
XXI, Ed. Antet, Bucureşti, 1995. (War and Anti-War)
20. ***, Strategia Naţională de Dezvoltare Economică a României pe
termen mediu, martie, 2000. (Romanian National Strategy on
Medium Term).
CĂTĂLINA LACHE
STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF THE CHANGES IN
ROMANIAN COMPANIES IN VIEW OF THE
EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
Keywords: European integration, strategic management of
changes, information technology, organisational culture, national
culture, quality management.
The astonishing evolution of the Romanian corporate
environment and its opening to the competition without borders of the
European Union require the multiplication and acceleration of the
modernisation projects. The strategic management of changes aims at
the realisation of the harmonisation between the level of technology, the
information systems, the management systems, the organisational culture
of Romanian firms and the corresponding levels of firms in the European
Union.
It is imperative to achieve the harmonisation between the
evolution of the Romanian companies and the perspective provided by
the integration in the European Union.
1. Introduction
Before 1989, Romanian companies were extremely isolated due
to the political regime. The technologies used were outdated, highly
polluting, yielding low results, and consuming vast amounts of energy
and manual labour. Under the circumstances, rapid modernisation and
transition of the centralised economy to the market economy were the top
priority of the new regime. The modernisation projects focused on the
automation of production processes, robotisation, the introduction of the
latest Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), the
reorganisation and restructuring of organisations, managerial redesign,
and the substantial upgrading of professional skills and the adjustment of
personnel training methods. The privatisation of the large state
enterprises also represented a source of management change, of
replanning of businesses on the basis of new indicators of performance
evaluation. The prospect of Romania’s accession to the European Union
(EU) in 2007, has been a catalyst of these changes.
The transformation of enterprises, although based on the adoption
of advanced technologies and Western, Japanese or American know
An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 55–68
Cătălina Lache
56
how, bears the imprint of the national and individual context specific to
the management of the companies under consideration.
2. Theoretical arguments for the management
of organisational change
The post-Modern economic organisations operate in a highly competitive
environment, which is hostile and hazardous, ever-changing, and where
knowledge, information and human creativity have taken on new
significance becoming the main factors of production. Labour
organisation, as conceived by Taylor, Fayol or Weber, can no longer
ensure the success of present-day companies. The necessity of
reconsidering human resources as strategic resources and of approaching
other management styles, have been widely discussed in the specialised
literature by many authors, who have established various schools and
theoretical trends, such as: Likert, Tannenbaum and Schmidt, Blache and
Mouton, Barnard, Simon, Cyert and March, Mintzberg, Kenichi Ohame,
Crozier and Friedberg, Druker and Farmer etc.
Drucker identifies the following features of new organisations:
structure dominated by professionals, reduced number of intermediate
levels of hierarchical leadership, achieving coordination by nonauthoritarian means, preemptive control, self-control. 1
Managerial change and the flexibilisation of organisations
constitute prerequisites in the light of the upcoming EU accession.
The term managerial reprojection or reengineering has been
introduced in the specialised literature by Hammer and Champy and
denotes the fundamental rethinking and redesign of business processes. 2
While the aim is to substantially improve certain indicators regarded as
critical in performance evaluation, the key objective is the
microeconomic and social flexibilisation and modernisation by their
fundamental rethinking and radical reprojection. The core notions in
reengineering are discontinuous thinking, radical change and the
complete overhaul of the managerial system, being oriented towards the
business processes and not the activities, and towards meeting the market
demands and of the requirements and complaints of the ever-changing
customer base.
1
2
Drucker, P., 1998
Hammer, M., Champy, J, 1997
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …
57
Although there are numerous arguments in favour of managerial
change, there are also certain inhibiting factors which hamper the
process, as is indicated in Table 1.
Table 1
Favourable and inhibiting factors of managerial change
Inhibiting factors
Favourable factors
Organisational
Technological
Competitionrelated
Indicators of
economic
performance
- the management’s lack of
strategic vision;
- organisations’ inertia;
- the fear middle management
of losing their privileges;
- teama salariaţilor de a-şi
pierde locurile de muncă;
- conflict between
centralisationdecentralisation;
- the quick change in terms of
knowledge and know-how;
- the incapacity of top
management to acknowledge
the strategic importance of
TI and SI.
- fast-paced evolution of
technologies;
- reduction over time of the
cost-performance ratio.
- the risk of losing the market
position during
reorganisation.
- high costs of managerial
change.
- strategic, forward-thinking strategy;
- redefinition of the organisations’
mission;
- substation upgrading of the
qualification level of the human
resources;
- crystallisation of participatory
management and the greater role of
motivation;
- intensification of the innovative
character of activitites;
- the personnel’s easy adaptation to
the new work technologies and
methods;
- internationalisation of knowledge
and skills.
- the fast-paced rhythm of
implementation of technologies and
technical progress within
organisations; potential network
interconnection and cooperation.
- internationalisation of competition;
- clear competitive advantages for
network cooperation;
- new methods of assessing
advantages;
- cost –performance trends;
- reorientation towards the customers
and the market.
3. Method and results
The purpose of the analysis of strategic management of change in
Romanian companies, in the period of transition to the market economy,
is to highlight the necessity ot correlate the processes of organisational
change by acquiring new technologies and know-how and/or the
privatisation of Romanian companies with the management of human
resources, starting from Romania’s socio-economic and cultural context,
providing solutions for preserving the organisational and cultural
identity, as factor of positive differentiation in view of the European
integration.
58
Cătălina Lache
3.1. Objectives, methodology and selection of the sample group
The main objectives of the research are:
1. To identify the organisational culture of the firms under
consideration.
2. To evaluate globally as well as analytically then harmonisation of
the management of organisational change with the process of
implementing new technologies.
3. To make proposals for harmonising change in the analysed
companies.
The general hypothesis of the research is that the success of the
process of implementation of the new technologies and the know-how,
and the efforts towards European integration, depend on the strategic
management of change, the reduction of organisational resistance to
change, the avoidance of cultural divisions, the adherence and
participation of the human resources. The research was carried out in five
companies separated from C.N.”CFR” SA, a public railway company of
national interest. In 1998, it was divided into 5 railway companies, each
with its specific object of activity, for the sake of optimal use of basic
skills and of creating profit nuclei. The researched firms are regional
branches or agencies and have a broad territorial coverage, spanning 110
localities in the rural and urban areas, spread over 8 counties. The ca.
13,500 staff employed at the Regional branch of CFR Iasi in 1998 were
transferred to the newly set up companies, were sent into early retirement
or laid off. The transition to the current situation was interspersed with
industrial action demanding improved payment and work conditions.
The implementation of new technologies in the railway industry
was based on the acquisition of modern cars, the overhaul of the railway
infrastructure and its adaptation to allow the movement of fast trains, and
the redesign of the information and communication systems according to
the UIC standards, both in terms of equipment and operation of networks.
The know-how was purchased on the basis of a contract of CFR with the
Japanese consultancy JICA EXPERT as well as through regular
exchanges of ideas with the railway administration in Europe: France,
Germany, Austria and Great Britain. The method of research consists in
carrying out an investigation using the audit questionnaire as research
tool. 500 questionnaires were distributed, the total researched population
being 467 staff, employed at various levels in the 5 railway companies.
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …
59
The analysed issues refer to company management, management
of new technology implementation, human resources management and
organisational culture.
The audit questionnaire includes 100 issues grouped in several
fields, such as: strategic and operational planning; analysis, description,
evaluation and dynamic planning of positions in accordance with the
retechnologisation projects; analysis of the social climate; level of formal
and informal cooperation; quality of internal communication; effect of
prior restructuring on the morale and motivation of the personnel; level
of dynamic integration of personal aspirations in the company’s
objectives, a. o.
The evaluation procedure links to norms through the summarised
or detailed criteria. The norms were established by making references to
economic studies, sectoral data or by comparison with corresponding
companies in other countries.
In addition to the primary data, we have used the analysis of
secondary data, impact studies, polls, interviews and other
complementary analyses. An empirical analysis was performed to
identify the elements of organisational culture and the values which the
employees identify themselves with thus ensuring the perpetuation of the
organisational culture.
3.2. Identifying the organisational culture
Organisational structure of the analysed companies
The elaboration of the organisational chart of the analysed
companies has been doen in accordance with the statute of the
companies, as regional branches or agencies, subordinated to joint-stock
companies of national interest, where the State is the majority
shareholder, and also according their established object of activity,
mission, strategies and development programmes. The object of activity
of all the companies in focus is the provision of services in the field of
railway transport.
The following levels of organisational structure were found:
 branch management – represented by the director of the regional
branch;
 executive management – represented by the chiefs of divisons,
departments etc;
 specialised, administrative, and planning activities;
Cătălina Lache
60

execution activities performed by the base units, characterised by
broad territorial coverage, such as: railway stations, flag stations,
depots, warehouses, districts.
The structure is based on a functionally oriented classification, with
norms and procedures clearly delineated in the Organisation and
Operating Regulation, with very strict attributions, areas of operation and
representation. The departments are clearly defined, as are the relations
between them. The attributions are specified in the Company Internal
Regulations.
The identified leadership style is authoritarian in the execution
activities and participatory in the upper echelons of the hierarchy,
particularly in the areas of specialty activities and planning and of middle
management.
Communication occurs directly only between the employees and
their line supervisor who in turn represents the department in the relation
with the next level of the organisational structure. Although top-down
structured the feedback is strong. Information is directed formally, yet
the diverse character of national culture and the stability of the work
force have given rise to informal groups. At 1 January 2006, of the total
work force, 35% were higher education gradutes, 60% were high school
graduates, while 5% were secondary school graduates. The high rate of
personnel with relatively good qualifications is motivated by the
specificity of the activity which requires resistance to stress and high
capacity of adaptation to innovation.
Elements of the external environment influencing the
organisational culture
1. National culture: diverse; Orthodox religion, distinctly tolerant.
2. The influence of rural education has negative effects as far as
punctuality is concerned.
3. Economic, social and political conditions have not effected major
positive changes in the organisational culture.
4. The progress of the technological environment and of the ICT in
particular has highlighted a great availability of the staff and favourable
reception of changes.
Behaviour and relationships
The characteristic factors of individual behaviour can be assessed
by considering the following aspects:
 incentive payment or the rewarding of exceptional results are not
possible due to the lack of resources;
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …
61
 the behaviour of the management has been firm and their authority is
properly recognised.
Accountability is clearly defined and while disciplinary actions are
extremely rare for level the middle management and for the
administrative and planning activities, such actions nevertheless
encountered at the base of the pyramid, in execution activities.
There are certain tensions due to the low level of earnings and
permanent stress caused by the frequent lay-offs and early retirements.
The affiliation to a certain trade union, although an option for the
majority of the personnel, does not give a feeling of security and identity.
3.3. Expressions of organisational culture
The norms existing in the researched companies are
acknowledged and taken up by 99% of the employees.
The company visual symbols are known by all the employees.
The specific traditions, myths and celebrations are viewed differentely
inside the groups of employees, depending on their geographical location
and living environment.
The values accepted by the employees, ordered in the order of
importance, are the following: punctuality, conscientiousness, honesty
and probity were the most selected by 90% of the respondents; order and
discipline ranked 5, 6 in the hierarchy of values of 87%; speed of
reaction and promptness occupied places 6, 7 in the hierarchy for 89%;
initiative and creativity were last on the list.
3.4. Evaluating the strategic approach of change
in the analysed companies
Table 2
Strong points and weak points of strategic management
in the researched companies
Strong points
Weak points
Results of the audit questionnaire
 Managers refer to the UIC norms in
strategic management;
 The company has excellent results in
implementing ICTs and redesigning
the information systems;
 The services provided have constantly
evolved in terms of quality;
 Much of the infrastructure and of the
transport vehicles require major
upgrading investment;
 Constant scaling down of activity;
 Recurrent cutbacks of personnel;
 Negative rates of economic and
financial efficiency (losses) with
negative repercussions on the
confidence of the personnel;
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62
Strong points
Weak points
 The organisational structure has
evolved in accordance with the
requirements of restructuring;
 The company’s management system
has been adjusted to the new
requirements
through
the
establishment of adequate objectives
and necessary priorities;
 The
existence
of
a
strong
organisational culture, recorded in
written documents, known and shared
by the majority of the personnel;
 The social climate is favourable to the
implementation of modernisation
projects;
 Punctuality,
conscientiousness,
honesty and probity, order and
disciplines are the values to which
most of the personnel adhere;
 Large sums were invested in the
professional training of the work
force;
 The organisational structure is
formalised and functional, with
clearly defined departments;
 The attributions are specified by the
Organisation
and
Operation
Regulation while the discipline norms
are clearly defined by the Company
Internal Regulation.
 Authority is observed at all levels, yet
the main decisions are taken at the
top;
 Middle management enjoys great
decision making freedom, yet are
conditioned by programmes and
objectives;
 Executing workers have many
opportunities to choose alternatives
and solutions;
 Accountability is clearly established;
 The behaviour of the management is
firm (what they say is always done);
 Historcal debts hinder efficient
operation;
 Women account for a relatively low
proportion of the workforce: 21.5% în
January 2006;
 The negative effects of rural
education on work schedules;
 Economic, social and political
conditions have not effected major
positive changes in terms of
organisational culture.
 There is a certain interest in work
coordination but errors are committed
in directing the information flows;
 Managers do not express gratitude
when their subordinates carry out
their tasks successfully;
 The incentive through compensations
of exceptional results is not possible
due to the lack of resources;
 There is a latent state of tension
caused by the job insecurity, which
causes employees to be rigid, less
sensitive to disciplinary action, yet
more communicative and receptive to
dialogue;
 Disciplinary action is systematically
avoided in the case of middle
management;
 Stress is more or less permanent being
generated by the work discontinuity,
the non-provision of rights stipulated
in the general work contracts due to
the lack of resources, the social cost
of life;
 The organizational structure has been
modified relatively frequently, yet not
successfully;
 The assignment of tasks is not flexible
 Middle management or rank and file
cannot take decisions which involve
the company without prior consent;
 There are distortions in the
communication
system:
gossip
emerges and spreads relatively fast.
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …
63
Strong points
Weak points
 Group leaders enjoy authority and are
involved in execution;
 There is a system of communication
which functions relatively well: it is
top-down oriented, yet it has strong
feedback; the information is formally
directed to the recipients; people are
highly communicative;
 Intense,
formal
and
informal
communication, using the intranet
network and email;
 Formal groups are built according to
objectives and have fixed tasks and
deadlines;
 Special emphasis is placed on
qualifications, both at the work place,
and by specialty trainings depending
on the field, priority being given to
the use of new technologies
(ticketing, tracking train or carriage
movement);
 The rights of the employees are set
down in the general work contract;
 The work force fluctuation of is low,
as most of the employees have been
working with the company for a long
time;
Education centres around probity and the
respect for the company and the
fidelity of the personnel.
 Failure to observe discipline is
sanctioned by undemanding actions;
 The trade union, the
most
representative group, lacks cohesion;
 Industrial action focusing on earnings;
 The informal groups consume labour
time (indiscipline) as they are built on
the basis of mutual sympathies,
family ties or proximity;
 There are practically no material
incentives, as in salary differentiations
depending on personal achievements;
 Discharges have been usually done by
early retirement or lay offs, which
caused industrial action and tensions;
The stron points and the weak points listed in Table 2 provide the
opportunity to make a diagnosis of the analysed companies and thus
enable the orientation of future actions in accordance with the forecast
opportunities and hazards. The companies being research must take
advantage of their strong points, developing and expanding them, and
also eliminate or mitigate their strong points, according to a coeherent
strategic plan.
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64
4. Conclusions
The analysed companies have undergone, during the 17 years of
transition, several stages of technological modernisation, reorganisation
and restructuring.
The organisational structure has not changed substantially. Two
new compartments were set up in the year 2000, Management of foreign
funded projects and the Audit department. Their importance lies in the
increase in the capacity to adapt to the EU work environment, to absorb
funds which the companies analysed could not have provided from their
own earnings.
From the experience of social conflict, of open industrial action,
the management has learnt how to negotiate with the social partners and
to synchronise the strategic decisions on technological modernisation and
on European integration of activities and services with concrete measures
to reduce the personnel’s resistance to change.
As opposed to the 1990s, when only the top management and the
trade union leaders had access to the information regarding the
companies’ reorganisation and restructuring, the period after 2000 has
seen a change in perspective in the sense that:
 The company’s strategy is published on the internet;
 The Intranet network and e-mail are used in the routine
activity of information of and communication with the
personnel, both by the company management and by the
trade unions;
 Impact assessments are carried out prior to the launch of
projects;
 Concrete plans are in place for the predictive management
of human resources: formation; requalification; training;
promotion; allocations from the social security fund;
interest in promoting new skills, needed for new activites.
Although certain progress has been noted, there exist a series of
hazards which must be turned into opportunities in view of the EU
accession, as follows:
 The dynamic redesign of economic processes and the
reorientation of products and services towards customer
satisfaction do not benefit from the real cohesion of the
membership of the organisation aiming for new objectives
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …




65
(quality management). The quality of railway services must
improve, both in terms of the conduct of the personnel
serving the public and in terms of the continued process of
modernisation of the infrastructure and of the vehicles.
Although it has one of the best networks and state-of-the-art
equipment, the implementation of the ICT in the
organisation has not brought substantial change in terms of
decentralisation. The most resistant to change are those in
the middle management, who see potential threats to the
positions and privileges that their jobs currently provide.
The results of the ICT available to the organisation must be
exploited to effect a change in the organisational structure
and of the leadership style;
The company’s objectives do not integrate the employees’
individual aspirations, relating to their career and personal
wealth. The motivation of employees is neglected. The
company must find adequate means of rewarding
performance.
Managers are often replaced, cannot achieve continuity and
impose behaviour patterns and become role models for
leadership. Only 25% of the respondents know parts of the
history of the Romanian railway and can identify prominent
figures in the company’s past. On the other hand, 99% of
respondents can name persons charged with corruption
practices, whom they regard as responsible for the poor
management of the company. They also consider that the
managers have been replaced too often which has not
allowed them to become role models.
A faulty policy has been implemented by which employees
were laid off and posts were reduced without paying
attention to the structural evoluation of work scheduling
requirements and personnel charts. This in turn led to the
departure of a significant number of employees qualified in
high-tech
fields
(informatics,
electronics
and
telecommunications, railway signals, experts in various
fields, highly and medium qualified specialists in the
specific railway domain). The structural imbalance is hard
to compensate as these competencies are underprovided and
hard to recruit on the labour market in Romania. The
Cătălina Lache
66





continuing downsizing of activity, chronic unemployment
and unattractive subsistence earnings have led to the
migration of the work force, especially the highly qualified
one, to top fields in Western Europe and the US, creating
understaffing for certain positions.
The gap in the organisational culture and the imbalance in
the age pyramid, due to the massive early retirements and
the lay offs of some of the work force have not yet been
addressed. The policies of the companies under
consideration must be oriented towards resolving these
imbalances.
99% of the respondents consider that the job security is the
most important aspect of employment while in second they
rank the level of earnings. Similarly 99% of the poll
respondents regard uncertainty as unacceptable. These
aspects must represent reference points in the management
of change. It is important that increased attention be paid to
the qualitative aspects of management, and to the social
climate.
The values shared by the community are oriented towards
the accuracy in executing tasks, while initative and
creativity are ranked last in the hierarchy of values. The
notion of CFR as the country’s second army has been
perpetuated, which has had profound negative effects. The
company policy must be redirected towards stimulating
forward and creative thinking, towards the innovation
potential of most of the employees, combined with
continual life-long professional training.
The choice between externalisinn certain activities
(subcontracting) and keeping them under the company’s
management must be made according to more clearly
defined criteria, because after certain failures it was
necessary to reinternalise them.
Control was not adapted, it has not changed its essence, it is
of a coercing type, taking place „à posteriori”. The
adminstrative sanctions cannot make up for the fact that in
the service filed the gaps in quality and the damages to
Strategic management of the changes in romanian companies …




67
customers cannot be solved after consumption. The style of
control should aim to become more subtle and focus chiefly
on preemptive and anticipatory action.
The analysed companies are influenced by certain
aspects of the national culture, by certain regional and
organisational particularities, by the Orthodox religion, that
is by: cultural diversity, strong urban-rural distinction, need
for authority, low degree of risk taking, lack of punctuality.
There are numerous informal groups, established according
to family ties, mutual sympathies and proximity, which
consume much work time and generate indicipline. These
negative aspects of organisational culture may be reduced in
time by means of recruting strictly based on the skills and
professional ability of the future employees.
The increased work productivity and organisational
efficiency, the remodelling and redesign of technological
processes must be correlated with the improved
coordination of territorially dispersed activities. Although
the information systems have been redesigned, this was
performed only at the basic operational level, not including
the management information system. It is absolutely
necessary to address this issue.
The improvement of the company image must
represent a top priority for the management along with the
increase in quality, safety, promptness of services provided
and reconsideration of customer satisfaction.
While only 33% know the significance of the
accession to the European Union, and its symbols and
institutions, 91% are in favour of the European integration
and accept the constraints it entails.
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68
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8. Verboncu, I., Zalman, M., Management şi performanţe, Editura
Universitară, Bucharest, 2005.
MÁRTA STAUDER1
Present-day topics
RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN HUNGARY
BEFORE AND AFTER THE EU-ACCESSION
1. Principles and objectives of rural development policy
According to Ahrens (2004) the objective of rural development
policy is to guarantee “equivalent living conditions”. A development
policy for a specific rural region consists of
 An objective function reflecting to agreed social priorities
for the development of a relevant region and of
 Specific mix of instruments for attaining these objectives.
In a market economy some general rural policy principles can
be defined.
1.) Rural development should be based on Rural Development
Programmes spelling out the objectives and instruments.
2.) If by the ‘economic’ objective we understand the generation or
maintenance of employment and income, its attainment
presupposes an adequate national economic framework in the
fields of monetary and fiscal policy, labour market policy, antitrust policy, education policy, etc. Entrepreneurial spirit, free
markets, and competition are essential to bring about the
necessary permanent intrasectoral, intersectoral and interregional
reallocation of productive resources like capital, labour, and
know-how. Such reallocation provides the channel for a rural
region to develop. Rural development policies should support the
region indirectly, by improving conditions for a reallocation of
resources in their favour, instead of supporting certain sectors;
this would reduce the allocational efficiency in the rural
economy.” (Ahrens, 2004)
1
Márta Stauder senior researcher, Agricultural Economics Research Institute Budapest,
Hungary , e-mail: StauderM@akii.hu

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 69–80
70
Márta Stauder
2. The “history” in the nineties
The economy and society of the rural settlements was
transformed by the transformation after the political changes on a
more dramatic way than in other parts of the country. The
compensation, the privatization, the co-operative’s transformation, the
market losses, the decreasing profitability of the production and the
decrease in agricultural employment caused a difficult situation by itself,
but other sectors have shown a worsened performance, too.
The lag of the rural areas from the urban zones was
increasing continuously.
The national rural development conception was elaborated with
the aim that it has to make a balance about the rural space transformation
in the nineties and to elaborate the theory, methodology and techniques
of the rural development. The conception is aiming those regions, in the
settlement structure of which the villages are dominants and whose
economy is typically connecting to the agriculture and natural
environment.
The widespread moonlighting, the multichannel income in most
part of the households, the widespread industrial jobs in the villages, the
radical decline of the agricultural employment, the land property of the
city dwellers make the tasks of the rural development conception
extremely complex, it goes in its consequences and effects far beyond the
social groups of the village residents.
On the base of the rural development conception a rural
development program was elaborated. (Dorgai et al., 1997)
The definition of “rural areas” in Hungary
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
In Hungary in the everyday use the rural space (the countryside)
is meant as „not a city”.
In the Regional Development Act (Act XXI. of 1996, amended
several times) is not defined the idea of the rural area but from the
contents one can understand: the rural area is outside of the
capital (Fehér-Dorgai, 1998). This may be a hint to heavy
Rural development in Hungary before and after the EU-accession
concentration of
agglomeration.
economic
activities
in
the
71
Budapest
In the application of the Act the “regions of agricultural rural
development (rural regions) mean those regions, where the share of
agricultural employees and those engaged in agricultural activity is
significant in the employment structure and in the population of
settlements and small towns”.
Basic principles of the Hungarian rural development policy were:
The rural development policy had
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To create such conditions which enable the rural areas to
fulfil and keep their economic, ecologic and social, cultural
functions permanently
To handle as top priority the tensions between rural areas and to
improve the living conditions
Develop reasonable decision mechanisms
Take into account the characteristics of the rural areas and adapt
to them that means create frame conditions for the improvement
of the adaptation ability of people living in rural areas
Build on the regional co-operation
Take into account the specific rural development role of the
Hungarian agriculture, the shaping of the agriculture that means
the regional characteristics in according to this. (Fehér-Dorgai,
1998)
Long term priorities of the rural development were:
Fortifying of the economic base of the rural areas,
diversification of the economic activity
Improvement of the rural employment and earning conditions
Improvement of the rural living conditions
Preservation and protection of the rural social communities,
professional and civil organizations and cultural values
Improvement of the social, economic conditions of agricultural
areas with unfavourable conditions with stressed support
Renewing of villages and farmsteads
Fortifying of the rural teasing of young people and entrepreneurs
The development of infrastructure
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Márta Stauder

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Increase of the spiritual level of rural areas
Protection of the alive and built environment (Fehér et al., 1997).
In the following you can see which the short term tasks in rural
development were (until 2000):
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Increase of the agricultural production, cease of the crisis
phenomena (lack of capital, low profitability, taxation)
Regulation of the rural development on legal basis
National rural development programme after that technical aid in
preparation of rural development programmes on regional level
Separation of financial resources of the rural development,
elaboration of the using methodology of the resources
Further decentralization in the agricultural subsidies,
differentiation according to the different conditions of certain
areas
Stimulation of the rural investments
Preparation for the EU regional and rural development
support system
Creation of the operational conditions of the rural development
working committees
Information and monitoring system.
Based on the Report of the Hungarian Audit Office of 2003 rural
development has been a significant aim since 2000; its objectives and
tasks were based on a national programme, however, the resources
available were not sufficient for implementing the rural development
policy. (www.epolgar.hu/hirek/gazdasag/agrarium20030806.html)
The IDARA Working Paper (2002) suggested “that the policy
areas that need to be addressed to further the aims of rural development,
in particular the reduction of rural poverty and sustainable development,
include:
 Job creation – through education and training, inward investment,
and SME support
 Local development planning through animation of the local
population and increased participation; and the preservation of
local characteristics and production of local specialities
 Promotion of social inclusion and improved access to services
 Address rural depopulation and demographic imbalance.”
Rural development in Hungary before and after the EU-accession
73
3. Rural development following the EU accession
The objectives of rural development are as follows:
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To improve the living conditions of rural population
To stop the further falling behind of rural areas
To guarantee the chances for catching up.
The following development plans and documents are provided for
the practical implementation of the above objectives:
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National Development Plan (NFT) as well as the documents for
the implementation of the target programmes, such as:
Agricultural and Rural Development Operative Programme
(AVOP)
National Rural Development Programme.
This latter includes the rural development schemes to be
implemented in Hungary and financed from the Guarantee Section of
EAGGF.
The National Development Plan defines the objectives and
priorities of the sustainable development of rural areas by including
 The activities to be supported in the frame of the measure
 The eligibility and the detailed rules of the implementation.
Graph 1 shows the integration of the documents to be prepared by
the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development into the National
Development Plan.
Numerous drafts were prepared for the plans and programmes
listed above and the final versions have not been completed yet; the
changes in the preliminary figures and allocations might be expected.
The subsidy schemes and the tenders will be in effect until 31 December
2006. Some tenders issued in the frame of AVOP are as follows:
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
Structural subsidy scheme for the fishery
Village development and renovation, maintenance of the spiritual
and material heritage of rural areas
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Márta Stauder
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Subsidies to be granted to young farmers
Subsidies for agricultural investments
Development of infrastructure connected to agriculture
Training and vocational training
Increasing the income generation opportunities in rural areas
Development of processing and sales of agricultural products.
In addition to the national development plans there are also some
important regional and framework programmes. A measure of rural
development is also the LEADER-type pilot rural development
programme of the EU.
The EU commitment is to provide financing for rural
development measures in the amount of EUR 919.5 million between
2004-2006, in which the budget of the National Rural Development Plan
is EUR 602.3 million and that of the Agricultural and Rural Development
Operative Programme is EUR 317.2 million. The rural development
measures account for 45% in the total budget of subsidies. (Popp et al.,
2004a)
It is not true that before the EU accession there was no rural
development in Hungary. Even before the political and economic
transition of the country there were some efforts to improve the living
conditions and increase the income of the rural population2 Based on the
data of the Farms Structure Survey of 2003 of the Hungarian Central
Statistical Office (KSH) the share of holdings engaged in nonagricultural activities was only a few percent. In the cases of economic
organisations with the exceptions of milk processing (maintaining the
level) and wine bottling (slightly increasing) the share of farms engaged
in non-agricultural activities decreased in 2003 compared to 2000. As for
private farms the share of transportation increased most significantly
during the same period, however, the share of milk, fruit and vegetable
processing holdings increased too. The share of holdings engaged in local
tourism dropped in the case of both private farms and economic
organisations. In Table 1 the detailed data can be seen.
2
However, agricultural large-scale holdings were also largely engaged in nonagricultural activities, a part of which was connected to agriculture (food processing)
but the other part was a kind of industrial activity connected to the sectors of
construction or service.
Rural development in Hungary before and after the EU-accession
75
We can see that the efforts for diversification the incomes can
hardly be implemented in practice (at least up to present). Obviously, this
is due to numerous factors, the intention is not enough for the product the
market demand is also required. This is mainly a function of the
economic environment. Several researches are of the opinion that an
efficient rural development cannot be implemented without a competitive
agriculture.
Everyday “practice” of rural development
You can see two “practical examples”, how rural development is
functioning nowadays in Hungary. They might be wrong examples
because the persons interviewed were not too optimistic.
1. The mayor of a small village (north east from Budapest) told that
rural development has not been working with regional that means
small region (or micro-region) co-operation. Politics has too much
influence on it (decision, will). Until now it has been the period of
great studies completing and that we are now in the phase of
children illnesses.
Village tourism is developing with the co-operation of several
villages (7-8) as a tourism unit.
2. Example from the side of the agricultural producers – a village
farm manager (who is a state employee and is dealing with
extension service for farmers) in County Pest (east from
Budapest) told that agricultural producers were interested in rural
development possibilities but they could not meet the
requirements.
There are examples mainly concerning village tourism.
4. The “future”?
You can see in Graph 2 the structure of the foundations for the
rural development in the EU between 2007 and 2013.
Strategic Guidelines for Rural Development3
3
htttp://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/capreform/rdguidelines/index_en.htm
76
Márta Stauder
On 20 February 2006 the Agriculture Council adopted EU
strategic guidelines for rural development.
The new programming period provides a unique opportunity to
refocus support from the new rural development fund on growth, jobs
and sustainability.
Member States shall prepare their national rural development
strategies on the basis of six strategic guidelines:
1.) Improving the competitiveness of the agricultural and forestry
sectors
2.) Improving the environment and countryside
3.) Improving the quality of life in rural areas and encouraging
diversification
4.) Building Local Capacity for Employment and Diversification
5.) Translating priorities into programmes
6.) Complementarity between Community Instruments.
As for Hungary, we have a National Agricultural Rural
Development Strategy for the period 2007-2013. The main points are:
 Unified handling of social and environmental problems
 Sustainable development, increase of competitiveness,;
keeping of employment
 Rural area and landscape preserving
 Agricultural-environment protection
 Preserving of cultural and natural heritage.
4. Summary and conclusions
During the last 15 years elapsed since the political and economic
transition of Hungary the objectives and concepts of rural development
have played a more and more important role in the programmes and
plans, press and research etc. The question is what was implemented
from the plans. We are of the opinion that “colossal” success is still
expected in this field. The lacking success of the implementation is due
to institutional, financial and mental reasons.
Rural development in Hungary before and after the EU-accession
77
Nemes and Tóth analyzed the implementation of the preaccession programmes (PHARE, ISPA and SAPARD). Concerning the
SAPARD programme their main conclusions were the following:
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Its annual budget was of MEUR 38 (it was of the smallest budget
among the pre-accession programmes)
Its Objective was to make preparations for the EU agricultural
and rural development policy and for the procedures of the
Structural Funds
It provided support for small projects
The SAPARD Agency could only be accredited only in
November 2002 for 3 measures, by the end of 2003 for further 2
measures and later some new rural development measures were
also accredited.
2600 applications were awarded (8827 applications were
submitted) 4500 applications were rejected due to lack of
financing)
Supports were provided for the preparation of the strategies of
micro-regions (consolidation of the system of micro-regions), the
EU, however intended to support individual projects, therefore,
the SAPARD plans of micro-regions have not received
financing.
Summary: As a result of the SAPARD the rural population started to
think together on the problems and on the possible solutions. Networks
and partnerships were set up and local institutions were established and
got used to the expressions and procedures of the EU. The expression of
rural development became a widely used common word. All these
activities - which in the case of the SAPARD seemed to be sometimes
wasted work - provided valuable and indispensable preparation for
LEADER +” Nemes and Tóth, 2005).
And a general lesson concerning rural development policy could be: “it
is obvious that policy making for rural areas is a complex task. At the
same time, policies are designed on different administrative levels, for
example regional, national and European. The CAP itself is in the midst
of a fundamental reform process, which overlies the changes due to the
accession of new members and the general approximation of CEE
countries to the EU.” (Patrick and Weingarten, 2004)
78
Márta Stauder
References
1.
Ahrens, H. (2004), Agricultural Policy and Rural Development;
Theoretical and Empirical Aspects. The role of Agriculture in
Central and Eastern European rural Development: Engin of Change
or Social Buffer? Martin Petrick, Peter Weingarten (eds.) Studies on
the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe,
Vol. 25, Halle (Saale), IAMO
2. Dorgai, L., Fehér, A., Kovács, I., Kulcsár, L., Loydl, T., Ónodi, G.
(1997), Magyarország vidékfejlesztési koncepciója. AKII Budapest
3. Fehér, A. (1998), Mezőgazdasági és vidékfejlesztés. Gazdálkodás 1.
4. Fehér, A, Dorgai, L., (1998), A vidék eltartó-képességének
stabilizálása, regionális összefüggései. MTA Agrártudományok
Osztálya Budapest
5. IDARA Working Paper (2002), Identification of the critical socioeconomic problems facing rural CEEC – and policy proposals. June.
National University of Ireland, Galway, VUZE Research Institute of
Agricultural Economics, University of Budapest, University of
Warsaw www.agp.uni-bonn.de/agpo/rsrch/idara/rural/D10.doc
6. Mohácsy, G., 2004, Rural Development subsidies after the EU
accession (2004-2006) Gazdálkodás, Special issue No. 9.
7. Nemes, G., Tóth, Zs. (2005), A PHARE, ISPA és SAPARD
Előcsatlakozási
Programok
tapasztalatai.
Május
www.promei.hu/index.php?m=11348id=1066
8. Petrik, M., Weingarten, P. (2004), The Role of Agriculture in Central
and Eastern European Rural Development: an overview. The role of
Agriculture in Central and Eastern European rural Development:
Engin of Change or Social Buffer? Martin Petrick, Peter Weingarten
(eds.) Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and
Eastern Europe, Vol. 25, Halle (Saale), IAMO
9. Popp, J, Potori, N., Udovecz, G. (2004a), A Közös Agrpolitika
alkalmazása Magyarországon. Agrárgazdasági Tanulmányok
Agrárgazdasági Kutató Intézet, Budapest, 5. Szám
10. Popp, J., Kürthy, Gy., Stauder, M., (2004b), Multifunctional
Agriculture, Non-Trade Concerns and Rural Development in
Hungarian Agricultural Policy. Paper presented on the Annual
meeting of the AAEA, Denver
11. Stauder, M., (1998), The 1st International Seminar „Rural Space
and Regional Development Rural Space and Regional Development”
July 1-5, Cluj-Napoca – Turda - Miceşti, Romania
Graph 1. Interrelationships of the documents to be prepared by the MARD to the National Development Plan
and to its objectives
Source: Mohácsy, 2004
Rural development in Hungary before and after the EU-accession
79
80
Márta Stauder
Table 1
Share of farms engaged in non-agricultural activities by farm types
–%–
Engaged also in non-agricultural
activities
Economic
Denomination
private farms
organisations
share in
2000
2003
2000
2003
Meat processing
0.41
0.40
1.15
0.76
Milk processing
0.13
0.62
0.39
0.38
Fruit and vegetable processing 0.21
0.50
1.32
0.78
Wine bottling
0.04
0.03
1.01
1.27
Feed preparation
0.06
0.01
7.02
1.92
Tourism, catering
0.13
0.06
3.15
1.93
Transportation
0.49
4.53
11.52
5.77
Source: Hungarian Agriculture, 2003 – Farm Structure Survey – preliminary Data of the
Hungarian Statistical Office (KSH) Budapest, 2004
Graph 2.
MARILENA MIRONIUC
ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FINANCIAL
RISK WITHIN THE ROMANIAN
BUSINESS FRAMEWORK
1. Introduction
Risk, an important component of the economic and social life, is a
result of multiple causes, taking quite varied forms. In the last decades
and, especially, with the advance of globalisation and business expansion
beyond the national borders, an unprecedented diversification of the
situations of risk has occurred, along with an ever-increasing uncertainty
in the business world. At the same time, an obvious concern has been
manifested, from the part of specialists in the field of finances,
management, financial analysis, applied statistics, etc., for the elaboration
of efficient models of risk analysis, monitoring and counteracting.
Against such a framework, the management of risk represents an
essential dimension of any company’s strategic management, the
necessity of which derives from the fact that a company’s activities do
not involve doubtless future results – meaning that the company cannot
exercise a thorough control over its future flows of results. Control of
risk’s dynamics, risk prevention, and financing of all company’s
vulnerable aspects represent the objects of risk management, performed
in several steps, as follows: risk analysis and evaluation; determination of
the prioritary interventions for limiting the risk; risk treatment.
2. Risk in the financial theory
The concept of risk has quite diverse meanings, not all of them
negative. In the common language, no distinction between risk and
uncertainty is noticed. In the financial theory, incertitude springs from
the fact that no precise anticipation of what is to come in the future may
be ever made. Risk refers to the incertitude ”that matters” [4, p. 219], that
is, to the one capable of influencing the results expected by the owners of
financial assets. Any risky situation is uncertain, however there may exist
uncertainty without any risk.
Financial theory grasps and appreciates risk by the variability of
the result or yield indices. [3, p. 327] Yields variability, i.e. the

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 81–92
82
Marilena Mironiuc
disagreement between the ex-ante realized hypotheses, considered versus
the future, and the ex-post, effectively realized ones, may be manifested
either negatively or positively. Consequently, the notion of risk may be
interpreted in two ways: as an opportunity, permitting to obtain more
than expected, or as a possible damage or loss. Risk is the higher the
higher is the amplitude of the yield values’ variation around the value of
the expected yield.
From a statistical perspective, risk analysis assumes the
introduction of the concepts of variance (  2 ) and root mean square
deviation (  ), as expressed with the following relations:
 rt  r 
T
r1  r   r2  r 
2
2


2
2
 ...  rT  r
 t 1
and    2 (1)
T 1
T 1
where: T - number of observations performed.
Variance measures yields’dispersion versus the average value
( r ). The higher is the variance associated to the yields of some financial
active stocks, the higher will be the risk associated to them. Root mean
square deviation represents the most frequently employed index for
measuring yields’dispersion. For its correct interpretation, the normal
distribution should be considered, comparatively with the average value.
Thus, a normal distribution is the one showing symmetrical values versus
the mean, and a regular, bell-like shape. The root mean square deviation,
with a normal distribution, is variable, thus involving the probability of
attaining a higher or lower yield, comparatively with the average value
recorded, that is, of obtaining more or less remote values from the
average one.
The variability of a company’s results may be the consequence of
the influence exerted by some accidental factors, responsible for some
unexpected developments, which prevent company’s most rapid and
inexpensive adaptation to any environmental modification.
Consequently, the risk is more closely related to the possible occurrence
of some unfavourable events in its economic activities. The notion of risk
acquires a special significance once estimated versus the future of the
company or of the business under discussion, and, respectively, whether
the anticipation of the results’fluctuations or of the yields – as a
consequence of such events – is possible. Western specialists in risk
analysis support the idea that it is two variables, known as causing the
highest sensitivity of the result indices, that should be prioritarily
considered, namely: costs’ structure and the company’s financial
2 
Aanalysis and management of the financial risk …
83
structure. The structure of costs may constitute the cause of the economic
or exploitation risk’s manifestation, while the financial structure of a
company may generate, in certain circumstances, the financial risk.
A correct selection of the financial structure exercises a
considerable influence on the company’s value, playing an essential part
in its management, once known that the capital represents a production
factor with a cost of its own, while its sources are in competition – a
result of the unequal fiscal treatment to which they are subjected. [8, p.
81] Managers study and control their company’s financial structure, as
they will be paid and will acquire power and prestige only according to
their ability of managing the capitals entrusted to them. To a considerable
extent, a company’s financial structure depends on its innovative
strategies.
The ratio between the borrowed capital and a company’s own
capital determines, to a considerable extent, the level of a company’s
return on equity. If considering the order according to which
remuneration of the employed capitals is performed, creditors having
priority versus shareholders, it is quite normal that the structure of the
financing sources utilized by a company should induce modification of
its own capital’s value, which further on influences the return on equity
and, equally, the company’s value. Whenever the company makes use of
borrowed capital or capital obtained from selling of its preferential
shares, financial risk may occur. Its production is related to the
impossibility of establishing an optimum structure of the company’s
capitals, so that, by its level, as well as by the level of the financial
expenses induced by its procurement, the borrowed capital should not
contribute to reducing the return on equity. Consequently, to the
increase of debt’s degree, a corresponding increase of the financial risk is
to be observed, which challenges the shareholders to require a higher
profitability of their own capitals, in view of a remuneration of risk’s
increase. This explains why the variability of the result indices, under the
influence of the company’s financial policy, is of special interest for the
shareholders. [5, p. 425]
2.1. Brief characterization of the romanian business world
A considerable part of the above-mentioned risks have their
origin in the peculiarities of the business framework within which a
company operates.
In Romania, the first post-communist years have been affected by
severe economic difficulties. Thus, until 1999, inflationist and fiscal
pressures, economic and financial blockings, recession, have constituted
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Marilena Mironiuc
the main characteristics of the Romanian business world. The main
difficulty of the Romanian companies, along this period of time, has been
related to the identification of the necessary financing sources – if
considering mainly the high costs of gearing, which certainly
discouraged any investment, along with the companies incapacity of
providing material guarantees for credits’obtainment. Consequently, as a
result of an unreliable economic milieu, the Romanian banking system
faced the risk of credit non-performance.
Starting with the year 1999, Romanian economy raises its bid,
economic development is being recorded, the private sector contributing
in a preponderant manner to the realization of the Gross Domestic
Product. The gradual reduction of inflation, reduction of the fiscal
pressure, credit’s falling in price, all these have encouraged small and
medium investments, financed – most of them – from credits.
Nowadays, the capital market of Romania is facing a large reorganization
program, its structure being represented by a market for elite actions and
an over-the-counter market, for actions resulting from the program of
mass privatization of some societies. The Exchange includes the regular
market on which elite actions may be dealt with, as well as the alternative
transactional system for the rest of the registered actions. In its turn, the
regular market includes a spot market, for actions and obligations, and a
market at terms, for derivatives. The Exchange has been re-opened in
Romania about ten years ago, a period in which the number of
transaction societies amounted to 65; there have been performed over 5
million transactions (the value of transactions with shares having
increased in 2005 with 223, comparatively with 2004), the total value
attained being of 4.2 US dollars and 43 billion shares. Along all this
period, the Exchange came to be recognized as a modern, liable and
efficient institution.
At the level of the year 2005, the Exchange has brought about, on
the average, up to 10 times higher performances than the current bank
interests for deposits. The value of the shares' transactions recorded an
important leap in 2005, that is, 2.15 billions EUR versus only 0.60
billions in 2004 and 0.27 billions in 2003, respectively. Exchange
capitalization recorded, too, an ascending evolution, up to representing,
in 2005, 20% of Romania's Gross Domestic Product. The increase of
exchange capitalization has been mainly determined by the increase of
the market value of the shares already present in Exchange operations.
Aanalysis and management of the financial risk …
85
The gain from dividends decreased in 2005, so that the
performance increase brought about by dividends to the investors was of
only 2.57% in 2005, comparatively with 16% in 2004. Decrease in the
dividends' yield is a consequence of a generalized increase of the shares'
price, which encourages the stakeholders to reinvest their profit, without
expecting remuneration by direct dividends. Another observation to be
made refers to the decreasing interest for the obligations issued by public
authorities. All the above-mentioned elements encourage the investments
made on the capital market, in spite of a higher volatility of the shares
and of the risks present on the market.
In Romania, the capital market is still insufficiently developed for
assuring a rapid gathering of the financial resources and their assignment
towards profitable investments, its influence on the Romanian economic
evolution being still insignificant. On short term, the companies’main
financial support is assured by the commercial banks. Within such a
milieu, in Romania, the financial and the crediting risk still represent
important aspects in the analysis and management of the risk to be faced
by companies and ”capital contractors”.
2.2. Analysis of financial risk. methodological approaches
The influence of the financial structure on the result indices is
usually studied by means of a simple model, known as the model of the
financial leverage effect, which facilitates the analysis of the correlation
established between a company’s obligation degree and its capacity of
remunerating its own capital by means of its return on equity.
Consequently, the financial leverage effect evidences the increase or
decrease of the remuneration ratio of one’s own capital under the
influence of the fixed costs formed mainly from the cost of the
obligation. The information required for the analysis of the financial risk
is offered by the financial situations, especially by the balance sheet and
by the profit and loss accounts.
A more detailed analysis of the financial leverage requires, first of
all, formulation of some simplifying hypotheses, on the basis of which
such a model of risk analysis had been elaborated, permitting isolation of
the effects that might be possibly exercised, on the company’s return on
equity, by other activities, apart from the ordinary one. Such hypotheses
86
Marilena Mironiuc
refer to: acceptance of the fact that the whole capital procured by the
company, either loaned or of its own, is invested exclusively in
exploitation activities; leaving aside the financial result, the component
representing the financial incomes, known as resulting from the
company’s financial activity, as well as of the result obtained from
extraordinary activities – all determining, in a quite natural manner, the
net result and the return on equity.
Once such hypotheses established, there follows the calculation of
the return on investment or of the yield resulted after the utilization of the
capital engaged in ordinary activities (ROI), expressed as the ratio
between the exploitation result (Rexp) and the company’s total assets (At),
which is equal to the balance sheet’s total debt (the own capital, Cpr and
the total debts, D). Starting from the relation expressing the return on
investment, one may determine the company’s exploitation result,
according to the following relation:
R exp  ROI  A t  ROI  (C pr  D)
(2)
Such a result permits creditors’remuneration for the loaned
capital, payment of all taxes and duties and participation of the ”capital
contractors” to the obtained profit. If leaving aside the profit tax, in a first
stage of the analysis, the sums representing creditors’remuneration
( Ch f ) and the net result ( R n ), on the size of which the
shareholders’remuneration does depend ( ROE ), may be determined with
the following relations:
(3)
Ch f  ROD  D
R n  R exp  Ch f  ROI  (C pr  D)  ROD  D 
 ROI  C pr  (ROI  ROD)  D
(4)
where: - Ch f - sum of the financial expenses caused by loans’
contracting;
- ROD - average ratio of the interest for the loaned capital
(Return on Debit: Ch f / D );
- R n - net result, remained after payment of the debt costs.
The last relation permits to establish the return of the company’s
own capital (ROE) according to the following pattern:
Aanalysis and management of the financial risk …
ROE 
Rn
D
 ROI  (ROI  ROD) 
C pr
C pr
87
(5)
Analysis of the financial leverage pattern shows that the return on
equity is influenced by: the return on investment (ROI), the difference
between the ratio of the engaged capital’s yield and loans’ cost
( ROI  ROD ) and the company’s debt degree or the ratio of financial
leverage ( D / C pr ) known as characterizing its financial structure, and
representing a reliable risk indicator. The ROI – ROD difference is
debatable, which leads to the examination of several possible cases,
deriving from the different values that may be taken by the return on
investment and the interest ratio, and which may generate a null, negative
or positive effect of financial leverage (ELF), which will have
repercussions, in the same direction, on the ratio of its own capital,
namely:
ELF  ROE  ROI
D
(6)
ELF  (ROI  ROD) 
C pr
When the effect of financial leverage equals zero
( ELF = ROI  ROD  0 ), one may check the circumstance in which the
yield of the capital invested in ordinary activity coincides with the
interest’s average ratio ( ROI  ROD ). Whichever would be the level of
the company’s leverage degree, it has no effect on the yield of its own
capital, which means that the return on equity is not modified under the
effect of the obligation. In such cases, the company’s financial structure
is neutral. On leaving aside the taxes’ effect, which does not alter the
analysis, the equation of the pattern of the leverage effect
becomes: ROE  ROI . Such a situation appears abnormal, once meaning
that two types of capital (one’s own and one loaned), obtained in
different conditions of risk, will have the same remuneration basis, no
risk bonus being offered for the former, the utilization of which assumes
a higher risk. The condition of equality between ROE  ROI  ROD
individualizes the critical point in the remuneration of one’s own capital.
Such a remuneration, even positive, does not satisfy the requirements of
the financial market, once some capitals, the procurement of which
involves different risk degrees, will receive the same bonus.
88
Marilena Mironiuc
Annulment of the effect of financial leverage exercised on the
return on equity, in its equilibrium point, may be caused, among others,
by an average rate of interest with permanently increasing tendency,
along with a return on investment far from a level considered as
optimum. Consequently, if the company’s obligation degree is extremely
high, which is probably the effect of its unbalanced financial structure,
which might constitute an alarm signal for its future insolvency, creditors
will possibly require a higher interest rate for compensating the high risk
they face. Even a lower obligation degree may be considered as a
symptom of the financial difficulties the company is facing, being
appreciated as the expression of a less inspired/promising strategical
solution for the company, unable to grant to it the crediting capacity and
the contractual force necessary for obtaining credits with an
advantageous interest from the financial market. At the same time, the
capacity of obtaining credits under satisfactory onerous conditions is
directly related to the company’s capacity of being profitable, its
contractual force being directly proportional to its power of rendering
profitable the capital engaged in ordinary activities. The ordinary activity
is considered as being the source of the company’s financing flows,
others than the alternative financing sources, permitting – within certain
limits – the utilization of credits.
The second analysed case is the one for which an effect of
negative financial leverage ( ELF = ROI  ROD  0 ) is to be loaned. In
such a case, the return on investment is lower than the cost of the loaned
capital ( ROI  ROD ). The effect of negative financial leverage will be
the higher, the higher is the presence of the loaned capital in the
company’s financial structure – which will provoke a minimization
tendency for the D / C pr ratio. In this case, the return on equity will be a
decreasing function, versus the company’s obligation degree
( ROE  ROI ), expressing the company’s insolvency.
A third case evidences the evolution of a company’s return on
equity when a correct correlation is to be established between the cost of
the capital and the degree of risk involved by the former’s procurement.
The superiority of the return on investment comparatively with the
interest’s average ratio is indicative of a positive effect of financial
leverage (( ELF = ROI  ROD  0 ), respectively a superior remuneration
Aanalysis and management of the financial risk …
89
of one’s own capital. Resorting to a loan appears, in such a situation, as a
means for improving the return rate of one’s own capital ( ROE  ROI ),
as the return on equity is an increasing ratio of the obligation degree. The
increasing dynamics of the return on equity, under the influence of the
positive financial leverage, may appear as an inherent danger for the
companies trying to indiscriminately resort to loans, for turning to good
account the obligations’fiscal advantage granted to the shareholders, as a
consequence of the fact that the company will have to pay lower taxes.
Nevertheless, in this way, the company’s financial flexibility is
diminishing, its obligations towards its creditors become more difficultly
to be paid, its financial situation is worsening, its competitive capacity is
at stake – on average terms -, the banks being thus exposed to the risk of
insolvency. The banks attempt at controlling the obligations of the
companies with which they make business, by risk bonus differentiations,
which increases the cost of the capital, as the level of the credit increases.
[8, p. 195] At the same time, the banks are especially interested in exante analyses, performed, therefore, prior to credits’granting.
As already observed, gearing assumes fixed costs (the interests),
and any fluctuation of the exploitation result induces fluctuations of the
net result and, implicitly, of the profit. The financial risk may be
appreciated, in its dynamics, by means of the financial leverage
coefficient (CLF), reflecting the percent to which the net result or the
profit on action are modified as a result of an 1% increase of the
exploitation result, according to the following relation:
 R
IR n  100
CLF  r n 
(7)
 r R exp IR exp  100
where: -  r R n - relative variation of the net result;
-  r R exp - relative variation of the exploitation result;
- IR n
- IR exp
- index of the net result;
- index of the exploitation result.
According to the financial leverage coefficient, the financial risk
is present when, at a 1% increase of the exploitation result, there
corresponds a less than 1% increase, or even a decrease of the net result.
90
Marilena Mironiuc
The results of the financial risk analysis, in the case of a company
operating in the Romanian business milieu, synthesized in Table 1,
permit drawing of the following conclusions:
Table 1.
Causal analysis of the financial risk
Financial exercise
2004
2005
No.
Indices
1.
Exploitation result ( R exp - thousand RON )
2.
Total assets ( A t - thousand RON )
3.
Capital of one’s own ( C pr -thousand RON)
99 031 148 869
4.
54 990
74 310
5.
Total debts ( D - thousand RON)
Average rate of interest ( ROD -%)
18
8.50
6.
Financial expenses ( Ch f
9898
6316
7.
Net result ( R n  R exp
14057
15685
8.
Degree of gearing ( D / C pr )
0.56
0.50
9.
Return on investment ( ROI - %)
15.45
9.86
10.
Return on equity ( ROE - %)
14.20
10.54
11.
Effect of financial leverage ( ELF
Coefficient of financial leverage
- 1.25
0.68
12.
( CLF  IR n  100 / IR exp  100 )


 D  ROD - thousand RON)
 Ch f - thousand RON)
 ROE  ROI - %)
23 955
22 001
155 021 223 179
-1.42
The degree of a company's obligations, equal to 0.56 in the year
2004, exercises an effect of negative financial lever (-1.25%) on
its financial profitableness, which becomes a decreasing function
of the obligation degree; the ratio of economic profitableness is
lower than the average ratio of interest (15.45 versus 18%), which
reflects the company's incapacity of bearing the cost of its
obligations, as its exploitation activity is not suffuciently
profitable; consequently, the cost of obligation (through the
financial expenses component) exercises, in the first period under
analysis, an erosive effect upon the net result and, implicitly,
upon the rate of financial profitableness;
In the year 2005, diminution of the obligation degree to 0.50
produced a positive financial lever effect 0.68 upon the company;
the ratio of finacial profitableness becomes an increasing function
Aanalysis and management of the financial risk …

91
of the obligation degree, once the performances of the
exploitation activity had been superior to the cost of obligation
9.86 versus 8.50.
The coefficient of financial lever evidences that an 1% decrease
of the exploitation result results in an 1.43 increase of the net
result, which explains the diminution of financial risk from one
period to another, as a consequence of an optimum, financial
structure;
3. Conclusions
Risk management represents the strategic process of a company
by means of which risks are identified and estimated, which is followed,
in a subsequent step, by the substantiation of strategies for their
management, so that the objectives of the company should be safely
attained. The management of risk also involves problems of resources'
allocation/allotment and of lowering the costs of risk. Consequently, the
management of risk attempts at transforming each factor of risk into an
opportunity of development and progress of the company.
The pattern of the financial leverage may be viewed as an
appropriate instrument for the substantiation of financial policy
decisions, meant at contributing to the selection of capitals’ balanced
structure and to maintaining a satisfactory economic situation, by
enlarging the differences between the return on investment and the
average rate of interest. By the utilization of such an instrument, the
company becomes able to make a most rational selection of its financial
structure by analyzing the opportunities for increasing its own capital
and, respectively, the number of shareholders – which will have to be
remunerated for their capital of risk -, the efficiency of selecting some
alternative financing sources, yet always in correlation with the
perspectives offered by the ordinary activity.
92
Marilena Mironiuc
References
1.
Albouty, M., Décisions financières et création de valeur, Paris,
Economica, 2003.
2. Anastasiei, B., Managementul riscului organizaţional, Iaşi, Editura
Tehnopress, 2004.
3. Cohen, E., Analyse financière, 5e édition, Paris, Economica, 2004.
4. Dallocchio, M., Salvi, A., Finanza d’azienda, Milano, EGEA, 2004.
5. Mironiuc, M., Analizã economico-financiarã. Elemente teoreticometodologice şi aplicaţii, Iaşi, Editura Sedcom Libris, 2006.
6. Ooghe, H., Van Wymeersch, C., Traité d’analyse financière.
Comptes annuels statutaires. Bilan social. Comptes consolidés, Vol.
I şi II, Bruxelles, Editions Kluwer et Presses Universitaires de
Namur, 2000.
7. Pavarani, E., Analisi finanziaria. Valore, solvibilità, rapporti con i
finanziatori, Milano, The McGraw-Hill Companies, S.R.L.,
Publishing Group Italia, 2002.
8. Prunea, P., Riscul în activitatea economicã, Ipoteze. Factori,
Modalitãţi de reducere, Bucureşti, Editura Economicã, 2003.
9. Pasol, R., Evoluţia pieţei de capital în 2005 şi perspective pentru
2006, http://www.kmarket.ro; http://www.intercapital.ro
10. Zazzeron, S., La gestione del rischio e il valore per gli azionisti,
http://www.uni.com
VIORICA CHIRILĂ
CIPRIAN CHIRILĂ 
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE STOCK
EXCHANGE CYCLES AND THE BUSINESS CYCLES:
THE CASE OF ROMANIA, FRANCE AND UE 15
1. Introduction
Globalization determined a closer connection between the
national stock exchange cycles, fact that proves a strong integration of
the stock exchange markets. As well, as a result of the globalization, we
notice accordance between the national activity cycles.
The stock exchange markets are known for their anticipation of
the future economic market position. The dynamics of the stock
exchange value anticipates the economic activity [2, p. 1].
In this study we aim at analyzing the stock exchange and the
economic cycles of Romania, France and European Union (EU 15).
2. The study method
In order to characterize the stock exchange market in Romania,
France and European Union we took into consideration the portfolios of
the general indexes of the stock markets in these countries BET, CAC 40
and Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50.
In order to characterize the European Union’s, France’s and Romania’s
economic activity, we use industrial production indexes. The data is
extracted from the Eurostat data base [5]. The choice of the industrial
production as indicator of economical activity, even if traditional, can be
a subject for discussion if, for the post-industrial economies, the
manufacturing activity represents a small part of the global activity. But,
we suppose that the industrial activity and the services are globally linked
together.
In the general economic activity tendency we can remark
economic activity cycles that determine the behavior of investors and the
value of financial actives. On the whole, the economic cycle can be
represented under the form of a four conjectural phase sequence
(expansion, crisis, recession, launching) each of them being associated to

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 93–106
94
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
a configuration specific to the level of interest’s rate and to anticipations
regarding profits [2, p. 2].
In the logic presented above, the activity cycles are determined by
counting the deviations of industrial production indexes vis-à-vis their
trend. The methodology we used to verify the hypothesis presented here
implies passing through two main stages. In the first stage, we identify
the trend of the industrial production. In the second stage, we study the
deviation of the industrial production from the trend, in comparison with
the stock exchange index.
3. The portfolios of stock exchange indexes
The BET portfolio is a ten shares portfolio in the basis of which
we calculate the BET index. It was launched at the Stock Exchange in
Bucharest on September 22nd 1997. [4].The main purpose of its creation
is connected to the reflection of the main tendency of the prices
corresponding to the 10 most liquid shares transacted in the Stock
Exchange in Bucharest. Another purpose for launching the BET index
was creating an adequate basis for the transaction of the instruments
derived on indexes (future options and contracts).
The BET index is calculated as an average balanced with the
stock exchange capitalization of the 10 most liquid shares marketable at
the Stock Exchange in Bucharest. The BET index is a Laspeyres type
index.
The shares that are included in the BET portfolio must fulfill the
following conditions:
 to be listed at First Category in the Stock Exchange in
Bucharest;
 to have the greatest stock exchange capitalization. The amount
of the stock capitalization of companies that have shares
included in the BET index portfolio must represent at least
60% of the whole stock exchange capitalization;
 shares must be chosen so that they assure the diversification of
index’s portfolio;
 the shares of the companies included in the index must be the
most liquid in the Stock Exchange in Bucharest.
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
95
Within the BET portfolio, the weight of a share was limited to
25% on the 30th of January 2001 and then to 20% on the 23rd of
September 2004. The shares ALR, TER, TLV and INX1 have all three a
weight of 63,9% within the index portfolio, which means that only four
shares have an overwhelming influence in the evolution of BET index.
In the analyzed period, January 2000-December 2004, we notice
that almost through out the whole period there are two or three shares
that have together a weight within the BET portfolio greater than 50%.
We also find this situation in the case of shares weight distribution on
activity segments. BRD2 and TLV shares that represent the banking
segment during February-September 2004 had a weight greater than
47%. On the 23rd of September 2004 the weight of a share was limited to
20% and, the weight of the banking segment changed to 40% (BRD and
TLV having weights equal with the maximum limit of 20%).
The 40 CAC portfolio is a share portfolio on the basis of which
we calculate the CAC 40 index.[6] It was conceived in June 1988 in
order to accurately represent the French stock exchange market and in
order to be a base for derived markets. Ever since its creation, CAC 40
was acknowledged as reference point for the stock exchange in Paris.
On the 22nd of September 2000, by uniting the stock exchange
markets in Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris appeared a unique Euronext
market. Creating Euronext was the first pan European Stock Exchange
for shares and derived products. The three initial stock exchanges
remained as subsidiaries necessary for the entry of marketable values and
for certain regulations. They allow investors to intervene from a unique
access point on an enlarged value and products assembly. The national
indexes of the three markets (AEX, BEL 20, CAC 40 etc.) have been
maintained and calculated. Besides, we have calculated and presented the
indexes of the unified market: EURONEXT 100, NEXT 150.
The CAC 40 index is no longer weighted through total stock
exchange capitalization of the shares, as it is the BET index, but
through flying capitalization. The flying stock exchange capitalization
considers the stock exchange capitalization of shares from which it
excludes itself, the stock exchange capitalization of the following
shares:
ALR, TER, TLV, INX – The symbols for companies stocks: Alro Slatina, Terapia
Cluj-Napoca, Banca Transilvania Oţelinox Târgovişte
2
BRD – The symbol for BRD Groupe Societe Generale company
1
96





Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
shares owned by the companies that issued them;
shares owned by the persons that have the control over the company
that issues shares;
shares owned by the government;
shares that are connected through a contract between shareholders
(contract according to the article 233/10 and 11 of the Commerce
Code of France);
shares that belong to some persons that have the control explained in
the art. 233/3 of the Commerce Code of France.
The new calculation allowed a greater coherence between the
stock exchange reality of marketable shares and reflecting these through
the index. This way we avoid occasional evanescence of important
differences between the weight of a share in index and the part of the
flying capitals available on the market.
The maximum weight of a share within the CAC 40 portfolio is
limited at 15%. The shares in the portfolio must have more than 65% of
the whole stock exchange capitalization.
When passing to the calculation made on the basis of flying
capitalization only a single share reached the maximum limit of the 15%
weight. The other shares have weights smaller then 7%.
The most important section of the CAC 40 index portfolio is the
one corresponding to financial societies having a weigh of 20,65%.
The maximum limits of the share portfolio weight and on sections
are much smaller than the BET ones. The shares of CAC 40 portfolio are
part of 10 activity sectors, while the shares of BET portfolio are part of
only 6 activity sectors.
Dow Jones Euro STOXX 50 index portfolio is included in the
portfolio of the Dow Jones Euro STOXX index and is made of the most
liquid shares. [6] The portfolio of the Dow Jones Euro STOXX index is
made of the most liquid shares of the Euro zone and of the most
important from the super-sectors of activity. There are 18 super-sectors
of activity specified: chemistry, change stock, media, (cyclical)
distribution, automobiles, cyclical consuming goods, pharmacy, agroalimentary industry, energy, banks, assurance, diversified financial
services, conglomerates, constructions, equipment goods and
professional services, technology, telecommunications, collective
services.
The Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index is calculated as a
Laspeyres type index.
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
97
The weight of the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index does not
really exceed 7%. The shares from the financial section have the most
important weight in the index portfolio (31,7%) and concerning the
representation on countries, the shares in France have the greatest weight,
31,27%, followed by Germany with 22,62%.
A first observation concerning the weight of the portfolio shares
and the weight on sections within the portfolios, allowed determining the
differences from this point of view. For a clearer presentation of these
differences, we analyzed the concentration of shares in the portfolio and
of portfolio diversification degree.
Because we have at our disposal the shares and their weight in
portfolios, we use concentration and diversification indexes characteristic
for the attributive series.
By concentration we mean a congestion of the unities of a
collectivity or of the global values of a distribution around a value (for
example central value) of grouping characteristic. Appreciating the
concentration implies a comparative study of the structure of the
effectives of a collectivity and of the structure of global values on the
same variables or on the same intervals of variation. The differences
between the two structure distributions and global value concentration
can be interpreted as follows: the greater the differences between the two
structure distributions, the greater the differences between groups and the
greater the concentration and the other way around [3, p. 186].
We calculate the Strück concentration coefficient according to:
Cs 
n  g i2  1
i
n 1
Its values are in [0,1] interval. The limits of the Strück
concentration coefficient do not depend on the number of categories.
C s BET   0,306704
C s CAC  0,163817
As we hope to find, the Strück concentration coefficient confirms
that BET portfolio has a more important share concentration than the one
of CAC 40 portfolio. There are greater differences between the weights
of BET portfolio shares in comparison with the CAC 40 portfolio.
We also made an analysis of portfolios concentration on activity
sections corresponding to shares. BET portfolio shares are part of 6
activity sections and the shares of CAC 40 portfolio are part of 10 sectors
of activity. The results obtained for the Strück concentration coefficient
are:
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
98
C s BET   0,405663
C s CAC  0,18875
The values of the Strück coefficient are in the [0,1] interval. The
concentration of BET portfolio shares on sections is greater than the one
of CAC 40 portfolio. The differences between the weights of BET
portfolio shares sections in comparison with the CAC 40 portfolio.
4. Determining cycles
The industrial production evolves cyclically around the trend. The
industrial production has a growing general tendency. We estimate the
trend through the equation:
PINDt  PINDt 0 1  g t
where: g – the growing rate (assumed to be constant) of the industrial
production;
t – time variable.
The equation of the trend estimated for the industrial European
production is:
(257,8727) (3,465571)
PINDEU t  99,55115  1  0,000338t
Under the equation we present the values of the t test used in
order to verify the meaning of the estimated parameters. Because the
values of the t test are not between -1,96 and 1,96 significantly different
from zero [1, p. 7]. The European industrial production and the estimated
trend are presented in the following figure:
104
102
100
98
96
2000
2001
2002
PINDEU
2003
2004
TEU
Figure 1. The European industrial production
in January 2000 – December 2004
The estimated trend for the French industrial production is:
PINDFR t  100,2431  1  0,0000649t
(316.4494) (0.726105)
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
99
We notice that the value of the t test for the growing rate of the
French industrial production index is between -1,96 and 1,96. We can say
that for the analyzed period (January 2000 - December 2004) the French
industrial production does not present a significant trend as we see in the
following figure:
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
2000
2001
2002
PINDFR
2003
2004
TFR
Figure 2. The French industrial production
in January 2000 - December 2004
The Romanian industrial production presents an obvious trend.
In January 2000-December 2004, the Romanian industrial
production grew with a significant rate of grow.
The equation of the estimated trend is:
(189.6286)
PINDRO t  98,94841  1  0,003956t
130
120
110
100
90
2000
2001
2002
PINDRO
2003
2004
TRO
Figure 3. The Romanian industrial production
in January 2000-December 2004
(28.21261)
100
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
In conclusion, the analysis of industrial productions trends, in the
period analyzed, for Europe, France and Romania leads us to some
conclusions:
 Europe is characterized by an economic growth, through the whole
period, and has important cyclical variations;
 France is not characterized by significant economic growth through
the period and presents strong cyclical variations;
 The industrial production of Romania does not have important
cyclical variations but it presents a significant growing rate.
The Romanian stock exchange market is characterized by the best
profitableness and the greatest risk. If we add the presence of an
important and significant economic growth, it can confirm that the
Romanian economy and stock exchange market is about to become
emergent.
The deviations from the industrial production trend are
represented by the residues of the equations estimated above. We note
them with RESTRN and we add EU for Europe, FR for France and RO
for Romania.
5. The analysis of cycles
The general model after witch we estimate the relations between
the evolution of indexes' portfolio and the deviation from the trend of the
industrial production is:
IND t  c(1)  c(2)RESTRN t h
where: IND t – the value of the index (BET, CAC 40 or Dow Jones
EURO STOXX 50) at moment t;
RESTRN t +h – the deviation from the trend (RESTRNRO for
Romania, RESTRNFR for France, RESTRNEU for
Europe) at moment t+h.
h – the moment of the deviation from the trend. If h takes the
value 0, there is synchronization between the cycle of the
industrial production and the cycle of the index. If h is
positive, stock exchange cycle anticipates the economic cycle.
If h is negative the stock exchange cycle is late.
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
101
First of all, we analyze the synchronization between the evolution
of CAC 40 index and the deviation of the French economy from the
trend. In the first model, presented in table 1, we tested the relationship
between the index and the deviation of the French industrial production
at the same time. The equation has the form:
CAC t  4370,131  266,4188RESTRN t
In table 1, under the estimated parameters are presented the
values of the t test that allow the verification of the significance of
parameters. Because the value of the t test corresponding to the c(2)
parameter is superior to 1,96 (we reject the null hypothesis of the lack of
significance) we can say that there is a relationship between the value of
the CAC 40 index and the deviation of the French industrial production
from the trend, but this relationship is very weak. In the table we also
presented the report of determination R2 of each model tested, and the
probability associated to the F test necessary for the testing of
correlations significance. Because the probability associated to the test F
(corresponding to the model 1) is superior to 5% (the taken risk), the
correlation coefficient is not significant.
Table 1
The relationship between the CAC 40 index and the deviation
from the trend of the French industrial production
Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
CAC40 RESTRNFRt RESTRNFRt+1 RESTRNFRt+2 RESTRNFRt+3 RESTRNFRt+4 RESTRNFRt+5
c(1)
4370.131
4366.236
4361.845
4364.825
4361.020
4378.873
(t)
(28.57645) (29.03984) (29.57887) (29.97964) (29.85744) (29.30389)
c(2)
266.4188
379.9620
469.4926
523.8152
554.1083
537.0159
(t)
(1.989930) (2.831777) (3.546326) (4.033626) (4.225893) (4.037986)
Determination
0.063909
0.123333
0.183393
0.228288
0.235268
0.248520
Report (0.051320) (0.006386) (0.000798) (0.000171) (0.000092) (0.000175)
(prob. F)
Note: The results obtained with the EViews program
Then we tested the relationship between the value of the index
CAC 40 and the deviation of the French industrial production from the
trend but we introduced deviations (till the order 5). All estimated
parameters are significant. We retain the model 5 because it indicates the
greatest significant correlation. The deviation obtained between the
French stock exchange and the industrial production is 4 months. In
France, the stock exchange cycle anticipates the economic cycle four
months before.
102
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
Table 2.
The relationship between the index CAC 40 and the deviation
of the European industrial production from the trend
Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
CAC40 RESTRNEUt RESTRNEUt+1 RESTRNEUt+2 RESTRNEUt+3 RESTRNEUt+4 RESTRNEUt+5
c(1)
4370.130
4358.845
4352.872
4350.214
4355.627
4382.652
(t)
(29.05193) (29.86046) (30.46003) (30.68526) (30.26009) (29.38488)
c(2)
308.8335
439.3873
515.4020
557.6290
558.8660
523.8251
(t)
(2.457413) (3.467959) (4.135239) (4.512227) (4.478262) (4.061126)
Determination 0.094300
0.174233
0.233928
0.270172
0.237330
0.270811
report (0.017005) (0.001005) (0.000120) (0.000034) (0.000039) (0.000162)
(prob. F)
Note: The results obtained with the EViews program
We also analyzed the synchronization of the French stock
exchange cycle with the European economic cycle. Table 2 indicates a
deviation of 4 months between the value of the index CAC 40 and the
deviation of the European industrial production from the trend. The
European economic cycle is anticipated 4 months before the French stock
exchange cycle.
In conclusion, on the one hand, there is a similitude between the
concatenations of the French stock exchange cycle and the national
economic cycle and, on the other hand, between the French stock
exchange cycle and the European economic cycle.
Table 3.
The relationship between the BET index (expressed in euros) and the
deviation of the Romanian industrial production from the trend
Model
1
2
3
4
5
BETE RESTRNROt RESTRNROt+1 RESTRNROt+2 RESTRNROt+3 RESTRNROt+4
c(1)
0.044289
0.043175
0.042198
0.041329
0.040676
(t)
(15.98562)
(16.94425)
(17.58358)
(18.44376)
(18.68650)
c(2)
-4.78E-05
-0.000717
-0.000464
-0.000913
-0.000930
(t)
(-0.036223)
(-0.578315)
(-0.399593)
(-0.848471)
(-0.897293)
Determination
0.000023
0.005833
0.002843
0.012920
0.014691
report
(0.971229)
(0.565330)
(0.690977)
(0.399854)
(0.373546)
(prob. F)
Note: The results obtained with the EViews program
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
103
Table 4.
The relationship between the index BET (expressed in lei) and the
deviation of the Romanian industrial production from the trend
Model
1
2
3
4
RESTRNROt RESTRNROt+1 RESTRNROt+2 RESTRNROt+3
BETL
c(1)
1506.492
1460.244
1416.967
1375.611
(t)
(11.28884)
(11.58245)
(11.74731)
(12.06466)
c(2)
-6.539772
-33.47114
-24.07761
-40.67767
(t)
(-0.102886)
(-0.545429)
(-0.412829)
(-0.742805)
Determination
0.000182
0.005192
0.003034
0.009932
report
(0.918409)
(0.587586)
(0.681308)
(0.460760)
(prob. F)
Note: The results obtained with the EViews program
5
RESTRNROt+4
1343.148
(12.10180)
-42.17129
(-0.797805)
0.011650
(0.428478)
Regarding the index BET (expressed in lei and euros) the results
are completely different from the ones of the index CAC 40. When we
study the relationship between the index BET and the Romanian
industrial production with different deviation (between 0 and 4) the
coefficient c(2), the bent of the regression starboard, is not significant
because the values of the t are between -1,96 and 1,96. In conclusion,
there is no synchronization between the Romanian stock exchange cycle
and the Romanian stock exchange cycle, and, as well, the stock exchange
cycle does not anticipate the economic cycle. This conclusion is
confirmed by the correlation coefficients that have a probability
associated with the F test, used in order to verify their significance,
superior to the risk of 5% taken.
Table 5.
The relationship between the index BET (expressed in euros) and the
deviation of the European industrial production from the trend
Model
1
2
3
RESTRNEUt
RESTRNEUt+1 RESTRNEUt+2
BETE
c(1)
0.044289
0.043078
0.042104
(t)
(16.06319)
(16.88580)
(17.51930)
c(2)
0.001732
0.001069
0.000761
(t)
(0.751972)
(0.482759)
(0.363041)
Determination
0.009655
0.004072
0.002348
report
(0.455109)
(0.631116)
(0.717941)
(prob. F)
Note: The results obtained with the EViews program
4
RESTRNEUt+3
5
RESTRNEUt+4
0.041202
(18.23494)
0.000367
(0.186209)
0.040534
(18.43537)
0.000344
(0.180628)
0.000630
(0.852966)
0.000604
(0.857336)
104
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
Table 5 presents the results of the analysis of synchronization
between the Romanian stock exchange cycle and the European economic
cycle. There is no significant relationship between the index BET
(expressed in euros) and the deviation of the European industrial
production from the trend, because the bent of the slope and the
determination report R2 are not significant.
The results show that there is no synchronization between the Romanian
stock exchange cycle and the European economic cycle and, they also
show that the Romanian stock exchange cycle does not anticipate the
European economic cycle.
As we have already seen, the portfolio of the index BET is made
of shares with a maximum weight of 25% or 20% (when this limit was
modified). This explains a completely particular influence on the
Romanian stock exchange market of two or three companies marketable
on the stock in Bucharest. These actions are sometimes in the same
sector, and thus the weight of a sector in the portfolio can reach 40%.
Obviously, the evolution of the index BET is influenced by the evolution
of this sector. Because of this, the Romanian stock exchange cycle may
not anticipate the general cycle of activity in its assembly presented
through the index of the industrial production. But the cycle of the
Romanian stock exchange can be connected to the pie dominant index.
It would be very interesting to study the concatenation of the
cycles of the Romanian economic sectors and of the general and pie
stock exchange cycles but, the Romanian stock exchange does not offer
indexes of the economic sectors yet.
We have proved that the Romanian stock exchange cycle does not
anticipate the European economic cycle. To the justifications that we
have already presented above, we can add some supplementary
explanations.
In Romania, during the analyzed period, there were significant
changes in the economic politics that have favored the economic growth
and the development of the stock exchange market. The liberalization of
commerce, the adoption of politics pointed towards market economy, the
consolidation of public finances has preceded the liberalization of the
financial sector and has facilitated the access of foreign investors.
In the analyzed period, we can say that the financial market in
Romania is in a period of speculative financial bubble. As we may notice
in the following figure, the monetary mass has a significant growing rate
very important determining a growth of monetary liquidities.
Sstatistical analysis of the stock exchange cycles and the business cycles …
105
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
MMRO
Figure 6. The evolution of the monetary mass M2
on the Romanian market
If the economy in Romania is very liquid, it determines an
important growth of the products and of the real and financial actives that
have as effect the inflation and the growth of the prices of the actives.
The growth of the prices of shares is thus determined more by the share
demand than by the state of the economy (that presents an abundance of
liquidity). This growth can be made even if the economy does not offer a
good perspective. But, in fact, the process that aims the integration in the
European Union and tracking the detachment from the emergence
economic state will determine Romania’s economic growth.
In turn, the situation of France and that of Europe as well is not
the same. In these economies there is no liquidity excess, the inflation
respects the limitation rule at only 2% per year and the economic activity
registers stagnation or even a decrease.
Conclusions
In this work we aim at verifying if the stock exchange cycles of
the two countries are synchronized with the national economic cycles and
with the cycles of the European economy. For France the result is that the
stock exchange cycle anticipates the national economic cycle and the
European economic cycle four months before. We have not found any
synchronization between the Romanian stock exchange cycle and the
national economic cycle. The result obtained for the stock exchange
market in Romania has a few possible explanations.
Viorica Chirilă, Ciprian Chirilă
106
The portfolio of the BET index presents a share concentration that
is more important than the CAC 40 portfolio. This explains a completely
particular influence on the Romanian market of a very small number of
companies that are marketable at the stock exchange in Bucharest. In
addition, these actions are sometimes from the same sector, and the
weights of the sectors are characterized as well by a concentration more
important than that of the CAC 40 portfolio. Obviously, the evolution of
the BET index is influenced by the evolution of these particular sectors.
This is why the Romanian stock exchange cycle does not anticipate the
economic cycle, in its assembly, represented by the index of the
industrial production.
References
1. Berdot, J.P., Econométrie sans trop de peine, Université de
Poitiers, 2001;
2. Berdot, J.P., Goyeau, D. Leonard, J., Performances des valeurs
moyennes, dynamique boursière et cycle économique, 2005,
http://sceco.univ-poitiers.fr;
3. Jaba, Elisabeta, Statistică. Ediţia a III-a, Editura Economică,
Bucureşti, 2002;
4. www.bvb.ro;
5. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu;
6. www.euronext.fr.
ION TALABĂ
SPECIFIC ASPECTS OF THE TRAINING, USE AND
COST OF LABOUR IN THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY
I. General remarks on the travel industry work force
Tourism as an economic activity is increasingly viewed as a
service industry that direct impact at economic, social, political and
cultural levels.
The marked development of the travel industry in the last half a
century has been based on three pillars namely: the tourism resources, the
capital attracted and the work force used in the activity.
We should of course take into account the close relationship that
exists between the development of tourism and the dynamics and makeup of work force being used. In comparison with other fields the
involvement of the tourism professional in the process of designing,
producing and selling the tourism product is irreplaceable. Moreover, as
tourist expectations are ever higher the tourism market is also undergoing
a process of diversification and rearrangement based on much more
sophisticated principles of quality, selection criteria, training and
utilisation of labour.
Also, the dynamics of tourism movement, the quality of the offer
and its spatial distribution influence the attraction, utilisation,
specialisation and eventually the cost of the work force.
Experts agree that the travel industry is a special sector in the
social and economic field and also they almost unanimously classify
tourism occupations as being direct and indirect. Direct tourism
occupations include those whose chief object is the design, production
and selling of the services composing tourism products (transport,
accommodation, meals, health treatment, leisure, etc), while the indirect
ones include those services which tourists commonly use during their
travels (various handicraft products, textiles, medicine, food, etc) which
naturally are generated by other fields of activity.
II. The features of work in the travel industry
It is a well known fact that the tourists are the persons who travel
during their free time from their place of residence to the vacation place,
which can be located in their own country or abroad, in the latter case
being known as foreign tourists. One specific aspect of tourism is that
during all the stages of consumption of the purchased travel services
tourists are in direct contact with those employed in the field. Thus, the
contact is permanent from the first to the last moment of the trip which
means that the first and last impression are actually determined by the
tourism employee conduct.

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 107–118
108
Ion Talabă
There exist many other elements that individualise the
employment in the travel industry as compared to employment in other
fields, of which we would like to mention but a few:
1. The use of human work force is higher in tourism because specific
elements of technological progress are less widely applicable in
tourism – especially in such areas as preparing meals, serving in
restaurants, reception services etc.
Over the years, various attempts have been made to increase work
productivity – using elements of technological progress – in certain
tourism activities, yet the results have been completely insignificant
and have not been satisfactory for customers. This has resulted in
something that we have noted as analysts and sometimes as
consumers of tourism services namely that the irreplaceable nature
of the presence of the tourism worker at all stages in the production
and selling of travel services. This is reflected in the expressed
requirements of tourists themselves who need the attention, skills
and good nature of travel industry employees.
2. Elevated administrative duties. Almost all employees in the travel
industry have goods in their care, many of which are perishable or
some even toxic (such as the detergents used in the cleaning
process). Thus one should take into account their responsibility for
the goods belonging to their place of employment and also to the
tourists’ belongings, sometimes even for the tourists’ safety.
3. The moral responsibility in relation to the quantitative and
qualitative requirements of the services offered. Employees in the
travel industry are trained to be aware that the quality of their
services is a factor which stimulates demands for the respective
services.
4. The high level of specialised training and general knowledge. During
travel programmes, the participants come into contact with various
service providers from diverse fields and are permanently in search
of new and original things. Practice has demonstrated that tourists
seek answers to most unexpected questions regarding what they see
and hear in the areas where they travel.
For this reason, the travel industry employees need to have special
general knowledge. Thus, not only group attendants (tour leaders,
translators, drivers), receptionists, restaurant owners, waiters but also
most employees need to be familiar with various fields because they
act as hosts for tourists, taking the role of parents, teachers or
doctors.
The times of mere mimicking of one’s job are long gone and have
now been replaced by the need to be knowledgeable, intelligent,
passionate, exacting and creative.
5. The work is done in an environment of joy and good humour
(natural and permanent).
Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of labour in the travel industry
109
Generally the people who pay for a travel product – a trip or a
vacation – will have done their best to carry out their own word
duties. For this reason during their holiday they will have a strong
desire for relaxation, entertainment and distancing from daily
problems. This is why during the trip, the programmes provided by
the travel agents and the service providers and put into practice by
the travel industry workers must be as relaxing, interesting and
diverse as possible. The chief role of such programmes must be the
tourists’ entertainment and leisure and the openness towards their
interests and preferences.
All these elements must come naturally and not be forced,
professional duties, because tourists are experienced persons who
can perceive the inner side of things.
6. The segmented character of the work due to the seasonal activities
and the unequal flows of incoming tourists.
Two aspects must be considered in this respect:
a. Most tourists come from countries which have a four-season
climate or longer winter periods, and in those countries there
the standard of living is higher and there is also stable labour
and leave-taking legislation.
b. The holidays of employees, pupils and students, that is of the
main social and professional categories that make up the bulk
of tourists are given in certain periods of the year. Thus the
utilisation of the material infrastructure of tourism is heavily
influenced by the markets which provide the tourists, thereby
resulting the seasonal character of the activity, namely
summer or estival and winter or hibernal activities.
In the case of Romania, as a country situated in the temperate
zone, the seasonal character of the activity impacts on the volume
and intensity of travel flows, on the economic and financial results,
and on the fractional – seasonal – use of labour.
Despite all the efforts made towards reducing the negative effects
of seasonal distribution of activities in tourism, by seeking ways and
means to extend holiday seasons, few spectacular have actually been
achieved.
This explains why during the warm season and from 20
December to 10 January the travel accommodation facilities, the
holiday resorts, the historic and natural monuments are animated by
the strong presence of tourists, whereas outside these particular
periods those places become bleak and unexciting, except for the
areas where winter sports are practised.
7. Work which has a high physical and moral impact. The physical
impact is due to the actual character of work in tourism, to the
intensity and duration of work, while the moral influence is caused
by the contact with persons from different cultures.
110
Ion Talabă
III. The skills required for the tourism work force
In order to respond to increased competition and the ever higher
expectation of tourists, the work force employed in this area of activity
must posses a wide range of qualities without which one cannot expect to
achieve acceptable results.
Of the long list of qualities that the travel industry employees are
required to possess in order to be able to survive on the tourism and
labour market we will retain but a few, which we consider to be the most
important ones:
Positive attitude on work and guidance in the key activities in the field.
It is a well-known fact that in those cases where employees like
their jobs and find their chosen profession and the work they perform
rewarding, the results they obtain are superior in terms of quality and
productivity of work.
Generally, one’s positive attitude to work is formed in the
educational process in the family and at school and is also influenced by
the social milieu in which the person lives.
Finally, the positive attitude towards work impacts on a person’s
skillfulness in their field of work.
1. Among the chief skills that the travel industry employees must
possess are those connected to their skillfulness and their ability,
ease and dexterity in carrying out good and sustainable activities.
One’s basic skillfulness is related to one’s profession which lays
its mark on the quality of the work carried out. Thus, the cook must
master the art of combining, preparing and presenting foods, the ski
instructor must be skilled at teaching tourists how to ski, the
receptionist must be talented at informing customers on the
conditions provided by the respective location, including its
comparative advantages; the waiter must be know how to present the
menu of the house, to take the orders, to pass them on to the kitchen
or the bar, to serve at table and why not how to receive the payment
for the services.
A wide range of elements are involved, starting with one’s
appearance, namely the clothes, the gestures, the manner of speaking
etc.
Skills for close and warm relations with tourists in order to give
them a sense of safety, well-being and relaxation, removing some
bad thoughts that some clients might have, eventually to cause them
to have an optimistic attitude.
2. The ease of talking calmly and to the point and to anticipate the
information that the tourists might need, providing it in a pleasant
and professional manner. The travel industry worker must always
have sincere and credible answers for the unexpected questions that
the tourists sometimes ask.
Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of labour in the travel industry
111
3. Skills for team work, which is necessitated by the peculiarity of the
work. This is derived from the complex structure of tourism
products, which represent the sum of a set of services which are the
result of the work of many employees. That is why the quality of
services is increased when all the workers are aware of their duties,
of the requirement of treating their customers with affection and
respect.
4. The power to work 24/7 as part of a team, required in many cases not
only by the seasonal character of the work but also by its specificity
in many of its segments.
5. The ability to learn new languages, because one of the basic
requirements for many positions in the travel industry is to be able to
speak as many languages as possible. This is due to the fact that at
present tourism has become a worldwide phenomenon because of
globalisation, which means that the quality of services provided
should also encompass the tourism professionals foreign language
skills. Languages are of course learnt and not all people are able to
assimilate them in equal manner.
6. Civil serviceable and agreeable behaviour is a major requirement for
most of the travel industry occupations. This is all the more
necessary as employees come into direct contact with tourists many
of whom come from very developed and high-income countries.
7. Impeccable appearance and dress are equally two indispensable
qualities of the travel industry employee. The employees’ dress and
the physical appearance are elements that help shape the tourists’
impression of the services they are offered. Thus it is not accidental
that we find persons with pleasant appearance, agreeable and
adequately dressed in hotels, in restaurants, on cruise ships, airplanes
and coaches etc.
IV. Issues and methods of evaluation of labour costs
One fo the main problems facing economists is to ascertain as
accurately as possible the cost of the participating work force.
The analysis of labour costs is important:
a. economically, because work creates worth, sources of income for
employees, and by the system of taxes and duties supports the
infrastructure;
b. socially, baecause work ensures the funding of social programmes
and for the needs of workers and their families;
c. strategically, because the accurate assessment and provision of
labour costs ensures social stability and of course limited
dependence on foreign help.
112
Ion Talabă
At the same time the labour cost analysis is important for:
a. the government, as it needs stability and the welfare of its citizens;
b. employers, who want harmony in their companies and motivation for
their employees;
c. trade unions, to achieve the objective of supporting the interests of
their members;
d. the employees, funds to cover their own and their families’ needs.
Employees include all those who use their income in order to
cover their needs, to a larger or lesser extent.
The importance ascertaining labour cost is a natural consequence
of the structure of the composing activities and of the elements drawn in,
besides raw materials, machinery and energy, the work force without
which little could be achieved. Thus labour cost as an element of costs in
general is found in:
a. cost of production (industrial, agricultural)
b. cost of services
c. cost of taxes and duties which usually vary according to the level of
earnings.
It is therefore necessary for public, private and limited liablity
companies and generally for every organisation to ascertain and know the
labour cost.
In general, labour cost is planned and included as distinct elements in
the strategies established by each organisation.
However, practice has demonstrated that the attempts to accurately
determine labour costs have not been always successful because:
a. many unknown elements must be considered, many of which are
impossible to quantify;
b. the organisations which support, either in part or in total the labour
costs are tempted to conceal certain elements in order to evade
paying certain taxes and duties.
Nevertheless, field theorists and professionals alike have sought to
establish techniques and methods by which to determine labour costs.
Thus at present it is possible to identify several techniques and
methods by which one can determine and examine the costs related to the
active work force, which are of the following types respectively:
a. financial, applicable at the organisation level, to the department level
at most, which are based on the data recorded in the bookkeeping
system, that is the information in balance sheets, reports, pay-rolls;
b. statistical, applicable at organisation, locality, branch and country
level, respectively, by which the information is collected according
to the specific methods of this economic science (selective
Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of labour in the travel industry
113
investigations, statistical reports such as Turism 1A, Turism 1B,
Turism 2);
c. mathematical, which are widely applicable due to their quality as
analysis methods.
From the analysis of these three groups of methods several
features are derived:
a. generally methods are based on the data provided by the
organisations’ own records – especially their accounting records;
b. the most extensive, yet least accurate results, are provided by the
statistical methods, which require a large work force to carry out the
process of data collection and analysis.
The fact that statistical methods provide information that in certain
areas is less accurate is based on the following practices:
a. for various reasons, respondents tend to conceal the true reality
b. some analysts and financial and accounting experts advise various
organisations (especially those in the private sector) and teach them
how to use laws in their favour or to exempt their clients of taxes and
quotas retained by the state.
V. The statistical research of labour in Romania
Starting from the EU1 recommendations and standards in
Romania today, owing to the efforts of the National Institute for
Statistics, namely the General Directorate for Social and Demographic
Statistics and the Directorate for Labour Market Statistics, the data
required to calculate the income and labour cost indices is collected by
selective statistical research (investigations) within organisations2.
The objective undertaken by the National Institute for Statistics in
researching the labour cost has been to collect the information in order to
calculate the indices useful for understanding the actual scope of the
phenomenon under scrutiny, namely: the average number of employees,
the average income, the level, structure and evolution labour costs, as
well as the correlations between these elements.
The National Institute for Statistics classifies these indices in the
following two main groups:
1
Regulation by the European Union Council and the European Parliament No 530/1999
as regards structural statistics on earnings and on labour costs and Commission
Regulation No 1726/1999 implementing the Council Regulation concerning the
definition and transmission of information on labour costs.
2
Generally, labour expenses begin long before the birth of a child person (the costs
related to assisting pregnant mothers, birth, etc) and continue long after the person’s
death (remembrance services).
114
Ion Talabă
a. primary indices collected by questionnaires, such as:
- number of employees at the end of the year;
- paid working time (hours/person)
- average number of employees;
- average number of apprentices;
- gross payments to employees, taken from the earnings fund;
- gross payments to employees, including payments in kind
(incentives) taken from the net profit;
- gross payments made from other funds;
- the employees’ contribution to the unemployment benefits
scheme (Law 76-2002);
- the employees’ contribution to the state social security
scheme (Law 19-2000);
- the employees’ contribution to the social health insurance
plans;
- the taxes due for the gross payments;
b. derivative indices
- the average monthly gross income;
- the average monthy net income;
- the average monthly cost per employee;
- the average hourly gross income;
- the average hourly net income;
- the average hourly income.
Determining these indicators is extremely important in order to
calculate the gross and net values of earnings for particular activities
according to the national classification of economic activities, at yearly,
monthly, and hourly rates, based on economic companies and social units
nation-wide.
VI. Labour costs in tourism
As is well known, the costs for the training of the work force are
generally covered3 by:
a. the family, especially in childhood and school years;
b. the organisations where people are employed during their active life;
c. society, throughout one’s life, for certain elements composing
services and the funding for healthcare, education, transport, etc.
The costs of training and using the work force differ from one
country to another depending on the costs for: training, setting up and
equipping the work places, the level of earning and the duties (social
security contributions, health insurance, taxes, etc).
3
The National Institute for Statistics carries out specific research and publishes annually
the volume “Earnings and labour costs in the year …”
Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of labour in the travel industry
115
Thus, one could hardly find two countries in which, on the one
hand, labour costs are the same and on the other hand, there are similar
defining elements such as professions, age, work conditions, importance
of activity etc.
In order to determine labour costs in tourism it is necessary to
establish the levels of some other economic indices such as the number
of employees and the level of earnings.
Thus, the data in Table 1 indicates that in the years 2003-2003 the
following mutations took place:
a. the overall number of employees dropped by 2,296;
b. there were significant reductions in all the industrial sectors and in
the transport sector;
c. there were increases compared to the previous year in the fields of
tourism, trade, financial services, real estate business, public
administration, defence, education, health and other economic
activities.
We would like to stress that in 2004 the Romanian travel industry
included 128,185 employees, of which there were 87322 in hotels and
restaurants, 1560 in water transport, 1422 in air transport and 37881 in
adjacent transport activities and travel agents.
The research and analyses are extremely important both for
economic organisations and for the academic world.
Table 1
Number of employees per economic activities
2003
2004
4655000
4652704
Total
Agriculture, hunting, silviculture
138715
139387
Fishing and fish farming
2975
2674
Mining industry
124880
117094
Processing industry
1592255
1555682
Electric and thermal energy, fuel and water
137155
134724
Building
332806
328015
Trade
624659
639494
Hotels and restaurants
81001
87322
Transport, storage and communications
341392
323413
Financial services
69975
73976
Real estate and other services
228769
241950
Public administration and defence
154830
159371
Education
396998
403057
Health and social services
315685
322533
Other activities of the national economy
112905
124001
116
Ion Talabă
Source: Data from National Institute for Statistics publication: Câştigurile salariale şi
costul forţei de muncă în anul 2003 (Earnings and Labour Costs in 2003) p.49-50 şi
2004 p.52, 53.
As regards the average gross and net earnings for the years 20032004, the situation was the following:
Table 2
The yearly average income between 2003 and 2004
Total
A. Agriculture, hunting,
silviculture
B. Fishing and fish farming
TOTAL for the INDUSTRY
C. Mining industry
D. Processing industry
E. Electric and thermal energy,
fuel and water
F. Building
G. Trade
H. Hotels and restaurants
I. Transport, storage and
communications, of which
- by land, by pipes
- water transport
- air transport
- adjacent transport activities
and travel agents
J. Financial services
K. Real estate
L. Public administration and
defence
M. Education
N. Health and social services
O. Other activities of the
national economy
Average monthly earnings Average monthly earnings
2003
2004
Gross, in Net, in
Gross, in Net, in
Gross
Gross
lei, per lei, per
lei, per lei, per
in $
in $
employee employee
employee employee
6637868 4839648 202 8183317 5986386 283
4919793 3784975
150
6306044 4826988
218
3905880
6559567
11569478
5804147
3023090
4867152
8204551
4364014
119 4913670 3795089
200 8032459 6000248
353 13635993 9746964
177 7196971 5437094
170
278
471
249
10548925 7516409
322 12475737 9015358
431
5659688 4236699
4948992 3639758
4275387 3260266
173
151
130
7006512 5256697
5924848 4386558
5375749 4110215
242
205
186
9491978 6732276
289 11215201 7924531
388
7249762 5377187 221 9074263 6710020 314
6628344 4861251 202 7891141 5777840 273
16493821 10685059 503 19280533 12536565 666
13343278 8830302
407 14562496 9827215
503
19937440 12464690 608 25097516 15624873 867
6544102 4685301 200 8138102 5850682 281
9902913 6922734
302 12039545 8451531
416
6566394 4768977
5550256 4126723
200
169
8940044 6481023
6955768 5206553
309
240
5880895 4278952
179
7334227 5375123
253
Source: Data from National Institute for Statistics publication: Câştigurile salariale şi
costul forţei de muncă în anul 2003 (Earnings and Labour Costs in 2003) p. 67-68 and
for the year 2004 p.68-69; data converted to US Dollars for an exchange rate of 1$ =
32798 la 31.12.2003 şi 1$ = 28941 / 31.12.2004.
As can be seen from the data in Table 2:
Specific aspects of the training, use and cost of labour in the travel industry
117
a) Both in 2003 and in 2004 the lowest monthly gross and net earnings
were in the field of fishing and fish farming (3905880 lei/gross in
2003 and 4913670 in 2004) and hotels and restaurants (4275387
lei/gross in 2003 and 5375749 lei/gross in 2004).
b) In 2004 as compared to 2003 there earnings increased in all the
economic sectors.
c) Both in 2003 and in 2004, earnings in the field of transport (land,
water, air, cable transport, and travel agents) were higher than the
average monthly earnings in hotels and restaurants.
Table 3
Monthly average work cost on every economic activity
between 2003 and 2004
Average monthly costs
2003
2004
$
$
lei/person person lei/person person
TOTAL
9145591
279 11058644 382
Agriculture, hunting, silviculture
6922734
211
8601155
297
Fishing and fish farming
5318391
162
6850246
237
TOTAL INDUSTRIE
9232122
281 11156215 385
Mining industry
16342463 498 19737688 682
Processing industry
8002332
244
9744522
337
Electric and thermal energy, fuel and water
14575143 444 17014379 588
Building
7374835
225
9116703
315
Trade
6477715
198
7536541
260
Hotels and restaurants
5954889
182
7355484
254
Transport, storage and communications
13349335 407 15373006 531
Financial services
26981208 823 33618311 1162
Real estate and other services
8787091
268 10668338 369
Public administration and defence
9949238
303 11689703 404
Water transport
9325891
284 10934954 378
Air transport
22822989 696 26926754 930
Adjacent transport activities and travel agents 18726112 571 20492369 708
Transporturi terestre, prin conducte
10081239 307 12287601 425
Education
8898750
271 11876823 410
Health and social services
8565974
261 10566331 365
Other activities of the national economy
8696239
265 10773738 372
Source: Data from National Institute for Statistics publication: Câştigurile salariale şi
costul forţei de muncă în anul 2003 (Earnings and Labour Costs in 2003/p.104-105 and
2004/p 105-106 and data converted to $ for an exchange rate of 1$=32798
lei/31.12.2003 and 1$=28941lei / 31.12.2004.
The data in Table no. 3 highlight the following:
a) In 2004 as compared with 2003 labour costs increased significantly
in all the fields of activity.
Ion Talabă
118
b) Both in 2003 and in 2004 the lowest average monthly costs were in
fishing and fish farming (5318391 lei in 2003 and 6850246 in 2004)
and in hotels and restaurants (5954889 in 2003 and 7355484 in
2004).
c) Employees in the field of transport (land, water, air, cable transport,
and travel agents) who also work in tourism produced higher costs
than those who work in hotels and restaurants.
References
Hrumăzescu, D., Curs de tehnica turismului, ed. Pan-Europe,
Iasi,1999;
2. Syratt G., Manual of Travel Agency Practice, BH London 1992;
3. Snak O., Baron, P., Neacsu, N., Economia turismului, Editura Expert,
Bucuresti, 2003;
4. Institutul National de Statistica, Câstigurile salariale şi costul forţei
de muncă pe anii 2003 şi 2004.
1.
CIPRIAN-IONEL TURTUREAN
THE STRUCTURING OF SOCIO–ECONOMIC
INFORMATION AT MICRO-ZONE LEVEL
– A NECESSITY FOR THE PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION’S DECISIONAL SYSTEM
1. Introduction
Information is the first link of the decisional system regardless of
the environment in which the system performs. Due to the specific of its
activity, public administration uses mainly socio-economic information.
The entire decisional process relies on this information and its quality.
Quality’s information depends on the power of observation of the
reality’s variety. A good structure and management of socio-economic
information in territorial profile lead to a good knowledge of the reality,
increasing the information representativness.
The administrative territorial units: towns, villages, etc. are
systems structured by a group of elements [1, p.48] that are functionally
related [1, pp.149-150]. Local public administration system must allow
the administrative territorial units to enforce some functions [1, p. 153]
regarding the population who lives within the territorial units’ borders.
Assuring the necessary conditions for a good functionality of the
administrative territorial unit stands for one of the most important
assignments of the local public administration’s system. They are
characterized by a high heterogeneity that determines the split in urban or
rural micro-zones that are highly homogeneous. Therefore, within the
administrative territorial units, it is necessary to make a new approach at
the micro-territorial level, by urban or rural micro-zones, named districts
and quarters, respectively [6, pp. 1-2].
Micro-zones are defined considering several groups of factors [5,
pp.521-522]:
- administrative-territorial (which refer to the local government
management);
- geographic (which refer to the specific and the natural and
climacteric potential of the zone);
- economic ( which determine the level of development);

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 119–124
120
Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
- socio-cultural (which refer to the social, cultural and educational
potential);
- notoriety (renowned objectives).
The urban space is a socio-spatial system [1, p.147] in which live,
work and interact its inhabitants. External relations that facilitate the
change of information, resources, technology and labour force with other
urban or rural establishments characterize the town in the same measure.
Accordingly, the urban space is an open system with two
development dimensions: social dimension and economic dimension [1,
pp. 142-146; 6, p. 2].
An efficient management of a town or a village cannot be realised
without knowing precisely the characteristics of the population who lives
within the territorial units’ borderlines.
A proper management and design of a marketing research that
respect the representativeness principle are not possible without an
accurate knowledge of the population structure both at the
administrative-territorial unit level and at its components level, named
micro-zones [6, p.1].
The efficiency of the modernization process of public
administration at UE standards enforces the existence of statistic
databases structured by micro-zones.
Modern public administration management system implies both
an input (budget funding) and an output (performances/ results) control
[2, p. 155]. This new trend determines the finding of new scientific
methods for collecting public information that will be the basis of the
decisional process.
2. Present image of the local public administration’s
informational system
At the administrative-territorial units’ level, the socio-economic
information is structured only on major administrative units: towns,
villages, etc. The local public administrations cannot investigate socioeconomic phenomena at the administrative-territorial micro-units level
that they administrate and the information they have is poor and it is
often unrepresentative for certain micro-zones.
Therefore, there is no precise information regarding the socioeconomic indicators and the structure on micro-zones (districts/ quarters)
of territorial-administrative units.
Frequently, the information collection of public authorities is
based on “empirical” methods (by bush telegraph, suggestions,
The structuring of socio–economic information at micro-zone level
121
complaints) characterized by a high level of subjectivity (political
principles, personal interests etc.).
The information obtained by administrative institutions does not
always describe the real local socio-economic aspects. For example, a
person who no longer receives unemployment benefits cannot be
observed any more. Legally, when allocation period ends, that person is
not registered any more as unemployed, even if the persons are not
integrated in the labour market.
The modernisation process of the local public administration
requires the creation of a performing informational system that assures
continuous information flows in accordance with the socio-economic
reality at the micro-territorial level (districts, quarters).
The cooperation between the managers of local public
administration system (city hall, local council), statistical institutions
(National Statistic Institute subsidiaries), specialized research companies
(marketing and public opinion research companies) and researchers from
universities and research institutes is absolutely necessary.
The indicators of socio-economic development, grouped by
districts, are obtained within the project CNCSIS 155/2005 carried out
for the SUCEAVA city. The performed study proves the existence of
significant differences between the districts of the same city, regarding
the socio-economic development levels. It means that it is important to
use different development strategies for the administrative micro units
(districts, quarters) [6, pp.8-26].
The essential requirements of the statistical informational system of
micro-zones take into account:
- the information structure;
- the level of aggregation;
- the level of utility.
The socio-economic indicators for micro-zones’ analysis should
consider the following micro-zones’ characteristics [5, p. 522]:
1. Geographical position;
2. Level of accessibility;
3. Demographic characteristics;
4. Locative space structure;
5. Space management;
6. Infrastructure;
7. Institutional environment;
8. Economic potential;
9. Human potential;
10. Recreational environment.
122
Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
Unluckily, in present there is no possibility to allocate the public
budgets for micro-zone’s policies that are specific to administrative
micro-units. The local councils may adopt these decisions using the
information obtained by the specific socio-economic researches.
3. Consequences of the present situation
Local public administrations cannot adjust their decisions
considering the specific of each micro-zone. Efficient public budget
allocation and the local policies’ adjustment to the diversity of the
problems existent in reality are strictly correlated with the possibility to
split the socio-economic information at the micro-zone level.
The degree of citizen’s satisfaction will be low however excellent
is the decision taken at global level.
Business environment is affected by the lack of information that
may help the implementation of socio-economic development strategies
at micro-zone level.
The role of the political component within the administrative
territorial units is overestimated from the point of view of obtaining and
managing the information.
Institutions and economic agents, which need information on
micro-zones, need to buy information from private firms or to find other
solutions (ex. census of children enrolled in schools, establishment of
district political organizations in order to manage the information, order
of market researches regarding the structure and the dynamics of districts
etc.).
The lack of information structured on micro-zones represents an
informational impediment in the decisional process of the public
administration and of the economic agents of the local market.
4. Advantages of the information structure
on micro-zones level
The structure of information on micro-zones level offers the
following advantages [3, p. 228]:
- removal of informational pitching which exercise a negative influence
on the decisional system of the public administration and of the
economic agents;
- adjustment of the decisions with the micro-zone’s particularities,
contributing to the increase of satisfaction degree of the administrative
territorial units’ citizens;
The structuring of socio–economic information at micro-zone level
123
- relief of the political component from the function of collecting and
administrating general information, allowing thus the focus on the
society’s major problems;
- possibility to observe the local economic progress/ regress, giving the
possibility to asses the local public administration efficiency;
- possibility to make predictions for the trends of the socio-economic
factors for one administrative-territorial unit;
- presentation to the economic agents of the necessary information for
building up economic development strategies and making predictions
for urban and rural market places.
The structure of information on micro-zones also satisfies the
basic conditions for performing the public administration management
[2, pp. 151-155]:
- offers real information which defines the inputs used for the
administrative policies that focus the allocation of the local budgets
on the real necessities;
- offers real information which defines outputs used for the
quantitative and qualitative assessment of the administrative policies
results offering the possibility to asses them efficiently.
5. Conclusions and proposals
The role of market researches should be increased within the
Public Administration Decisional System, as it is necessary to
acknowledge its utility and indispensability for the proper foundation of
the local administration’s policies. In order to assure the continuity of the
information obtained by the market studies, it is necessary to allocate
budget resources that allow City Halls, Prefectures, and Local Councils
to deal with specialized companies. Furthermore, it is necessary to
standardise the system of socio-economic indicators considered by the
local public administrations in order to satisfy data comparability and to
guarantee the quality of the public administration’s decisional process.
The structure of the statistical data on micro-zones should
represent a priority for the official statistics, local public administrations
and marketing companies [4, p.527].
The structure of the socio-economic statistical information on
urban micro-zones (districts) or rural micro-zones (quarters) should
become a priority of the official statistics’ development process and
represents an important premise of the national economic development at
European standards and with small costs.
124
Ciprian-Ionel Turturean
References
1. Nicolae V., Constantin D. L., Bazele economiei regionale şi urbane,
Edited by Oscar Print, Bucureşti, 1998;
2. Schrijvers A. P. M., The Management of a Larger Town, in Public
Managements, Critical Perspectives, Edited by Stephen P. Osborne, Ed.
Rutledge, 2002;
3. Turturean C.I., Necesitatea structurării informaţiei statistice oficiale la
nivelul microzonelor rurale şi urbane, pp. 227-230, in „Probleme
actuale de statistică”, Edited by Junimea, Iaşi, 2005;
4. Turturean C.I., Definirea şi observarea socio-economică a
microzonelor urbane, pp.521-524,in „Economia românească – Prezent
şi perspective”, Vol. III, Ed. Universităţii „Ştefan cel Mare”, Suceava,
2005;
5. Turturean C.I., Jemna D.V., Sistem de indicatori pentru analiza socioeconomică a microzonelor, pp.525-527, in „Economia românească –
Prezent şi perspective”, Vol. III, Ed. Universităţii „Ştefan cel Mare”,
Suceava, 2005;
6. Turturean C.I., Research rapport for CNCSIS research project no.
155/2005: „Urban microzones area (districts) delimitation and their
socio-economic analysis - aplications for Suceava Municipality”,
Revista de politica Ştiinţei şi Sociometrie – special number 2005, ISSN
1582-1218.
Alexander Bobróvnikov1 
Points of view
LA DINÁMICA ONDULARIA
EN LA ECONOMÍA PERIFÉRICA
Palabras claves: Kondratiev, ondas largas, epicentros regionales del
desarrollo, Mercosur
El problema de las crisis, de los bruscos altibajos en la dinámica del
desarrollo económico ha sido objeto de atención de todas las escuelas
teóricas del siglo XX – neoclásica, neokeynesiana, neomonetarista o
neoliberal. Lógicamente, fue abordado también por el fundador de la
teoría de la economía periférica, Raúl Prebish, quien puso de relieve la
existencia de diferencias sustanciales entre el comportamiento de la
economía de los países desarrollados y la de los países latinoamericanos
y mostró que en tales condiciones ni la teoría neoclásica del ciclo ni las
recetas convencionales de que se valía la estrategia anticíclica de los
países industrializados podían ser aplicadas a los países periféricos –
exportadores de materias primas [Prebish, 1949: 116-117]. Al analizar la
teoría de Prebish, el Secretario Ejecutivo de la CEPAL José Antonio
Ocampo halló que al final del siglo la vulnerabilidad de los países aun se
incrementó. Y estas asimetrías macroeconómicas están asociadas a la
naturaleza de los flujos de capital. Mientras los flujos de capital entre
países desarrollados tienen un carácter anticíclico, los flujos entre ellos y
los países en desarrollo tienen un carácter claramente procíclico. Este
comportamiento está asociado a la índole residual de los flujos de capital
hacia los países en desarrollo, que tienen la naturaleza de “ deudores de
última instancia” [Ocampo, 2001: 28-29].
La compleja naturaleza de las conmociones que sacuden las economías
contemporáneas está relacionada con el efecto sinérgico de las fases
críticas de determinados ciclos, incluidas las fluctuaciones de largo plazo.
De ahí que quepa hablar del carácter sistémico de la inestabilidad en la
economía mundial y los mercados emergentes. Esa inestabilidad se
traduce de modo duradero en desaprovechamiento del capital humano, la
1
Instituto de Latinoamérica de la Academia de Ciencias de Rusia, Federación Rusa

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 125–140
126
Alexander Bobróvnikov
subutilización de la capacidad productiva instalada, la “ pérdida
irreversible de activos empresariales, tanto tangibles como intangibles –
conocimientos tecnológicos y organizacionales “ tácitos” , contactos
comerciales, capital social acumulado y reputación de la empresa”
[Ffrench-Davis, 1999; Ocampo, 2000: 5-6], y por tanto, requiere la
aplicación de una política anticíclica flexible y polifacética.
En los últimos decenios los economistas han avanzado notablemente en
la comprensión de las oscilaciones de corta, intermedia y larga duración
que se registran en la economía y los procesos sociales. En este sentido
ha tenido gran significación el retorno a las teorías diseñadas, todavía en
los años 20 y 30 del siglo pasado, por Nikolái Kondratiev y Joseph
Schumpeter. Este año se cumplió el 110 aniversario del nacimiento de
Nikolái Kondratiev, autor de la teoría de los grandes ciclos coyunturales
(ciclo Kondratiev) u ondas largas. Fue precisamente él quien, apoyándose
en el análisis estadístico, por vez primera mostró de modo fehaciente que
en la dinámica de muchos indicadores económicos se detecta la
existencia no sólo del ya de antes conocido ciclo de Juglar, sino también
de oscilaciones mucho más duraderas con un período de 44 a 60 años o,
por término medio aproximado, 50 años [Kondratiev, 1926]. Sus
planteamientos fueron respaldados por Joseph Schumpeter, quien
contribuyó de modo considerable a fundamentar el diseño innovador del
mecanismo de formación de la onda larga [Schumpeter, 1939].
En la actualidad la mayoría de los investigadores coinciden en la
existencia de cuatro ondas largas de la época industrial. La primera
coincidió de hecho con el período de la Revolución Industrial, la segunda
cubrió el periodo desde la Revolución europea de 1848-49 hasta finales
del siglo XIX. La tercera finalizó inmediatamente después de la Segunda
Guerra Mundial. Y la cuarta, por lo visto, hacia finales de los años 80 y
durante la última década del siglo XX, aunque no en todos los países.
En el último cuarto de la pasada centuria, tras la publicación del libro del
conocido estudioso alemán G. Ìе nsch [Mensch, 1975], la investigaciу n
de las ondas largas adquirió carácter internacional. Además de la
veterana Foundation for the Study of Cycles, creada en los años cuarenta,
apareció una serie de nuevos centros de estudio. Mencionemos el
International Institute of Applies Sistems Analysis (Austria), el Fernán
Braudel Center (EE.UU.) y la Fundación Internacional Kondratiev
(Rusia). También se efectúan investigaciones en este campo en varios
centros científicos latinoamericanos: en México, en el Instituto de
La dinámica ondularia en la economía periférica
127
Investigaciones Económicas de la UNAM; en Argentina, en el Centro de
Estudios Avanzados; en Chile, en el Centro del Desarrollo Alternativo.
Ya en 1969-1970, el investigador brasileño Theotônio dos Santos enfocó
la herencia de N. Kondratiev y cabe considerar que ese fue el primer paso
en la formación de la escuela latinoamericana de estudio de los ciclos
largos [véase dos Santos, 1998b: 57, 1999: 518-520]. La venezolana
Carlota Pérez propuso una teoría original del mecanismo interno de los
ciclos Kondratiev que tomaba en consideración los paradigmas
tecnoeconómicos y cambios institucionales [Pérez, 1983]. Otro conocido
experto en estudios latinoamericanos, Andre Gunder Frank, hizo un
apreciable aporte al estudio de la historia y los mecanismos de
acumulación de capital a largo plazo [Frank, 1978]. Sin embargo, hasta el
presente la mayoría de las investigaciones centradas en el estudio de las
ondas largas se apoyan en datos tomados de la realidad de los países
económicamente más avanzados, y las regularidades que se establecen
sobre esta base se trasladan a la economía periférica sin tener en cuenta
lo específico de su dinámica. Entre tanto, para poder apreciar las
perspectivas de crecimiento de Latinoamérica y diseñar una estrategia
adecuada de desarrollo es muy importante ver qué factores determinan
las diferencias evidentes entre el comportamiento de la economía
desarrollada y el de la economía periférica de mercado.
Una posible respuesta a este interrogante la encontramos en estudios que
se llevaron a cabo durante los años 90 en el Intituto de Latinoamérica
empleando una metodología próxima a la que propusiera N. Kondratiev.
En 1991 el científico ruso V. Davydov fundamentó la aplicación de la
teoría de las ondas largas en el análisis de la realidad latinoamericana
[Davydov, 1991: 195-198]. Sus conclusiones fueron corroboradas sobre
la base de posteriores estudios estadísticos [Bobróvnikov, 1994].
En los últimos dos o tres decenios del siglo XX tanto los países
latinoamericanos, como los países avanzados entraron en una fase de
depresión prolongada de la onda larga o macrocrisis (crisis estructural).
Este proceso fue común, pero no simultáneo en todos ellos. Por ejemplo,
en América Latina, Argentina y Perú pasaron el punto de inflexión
superior de la onda larga a mediados los años 70 en medio de choques
políticos bien conocidos – caída de los gobiernos de Maria Estela de
Perón y de Juan Velasco Alvarado. La macrocrisis empieza a ser
superada en esos países cuando queda atrás el punto de viraje inferior en
1991. Esa inflexión en la tendencia de la coyuntura a la largo plazo
(véase Dibujo 1) fue uno de los factores determinantes de que en un
128
Alexander Bobróvnikov
principio prosperase en Argentina el Plan de Convertibilidad de Domingo
Cavallo, tras los intentos estériles emprendidos en los años ochenta para
estabilizar la situación. En Perú, el presidente Alberto Fujimori logró
también la estabilización durante su primer mandato presidencial, aunque
las medidas de liberación de los precios a que recurrió inicialmente
venían a ser una variante de la terapia de choque. Luego ambos países
entraron en una fase de crecimiento dinámico (la llamada fase A del ciclo
de Kondratiev).
Por una parte, para salir de la macrocrisis es indispensable una
extraordinaria movilización de los recursos necesarios para el ascenso
sostenido, función que antes era asumida por el Estado. Actualmente su
capacidad de influir en la economía está muy recortada, y el capital
privado siempre está dispuesto a sacrificar los intereses a largo plazo en
aras de ventajas inmediatas.
Dibujo 1. Fragmento de las ondas largas del PIB en EE.UU. y tres países
latinoamericanos (desviaciones niveladas de la tendencia exponencial).
Por otra parte, el movimiento descontrolado del capital volátil deforma
fuertemente el desarrollo de los mercados de factores de la producción y
obstaculiza el paso a una trayectoria de desarrollo más sostenido. Para
poder asimilar el nuevo paradigma tecnológico, en cuanto condición
indispensable para la entrada normal en un nuevo ciclo de Kondratiev, no
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basta con incrementar el ahorro y las inversiones, sino que se requiere un
conjunto cualitativamente nuevo de factores de producción: un cúmulo
de inventos técnicos o racimo de innovaciones listos ya para su
aplicación en la práctica; una nueva generación de obreros y empleados
sicológicamente aptos para trabajar en las condiciones de tecnologías
flexibles; y finalmente, nuevos mecanismos que puedan activar todos
estos factores en la economía real [para más detalle, véase Bobróvnikov,
1996]. Al estudiar la dinámica de la economía mundial en el siglo XX, el
conocido investigador sueco Àgnus Maddison formuló conclusiones
similares acerca de cómo influye de la combinación de los factores de
producción sobre la dinámica de la onda larga [Maddison, 1989], aunque
por ahora esta concepción interesante no ha sido debidamente valorada
entre los especialistas en teoría del ciclo.
Por lo que se refiere a la situación en los mercados financieros de los
países latinoamericanos, estos están más orientados a atender el proceso
de globalización que a la solución de los problemas internos de las
economías nacionales, situación de la que saca partido el capital
especulativo. La consiguiente insuficiencia de inversiones se traduce en
la persistencia de altas tasas de desempleo estructural y mantenimiento
de la economía informal, frena la renovación tecnológica de las empresas
y el readiestramiento profesional de los trabajadores.
Sobre este telón de fondo general, la única excepción evite es la de Chile
(véase Dibujo 1), que debido a las peculiaridades de su dinámica
económica interna había entrado entró ya en la fase de crecimiento
desacelerado, o la fase B del ciclo de Kondratiev, a finales de los 60. Tras
las extraordinarias conmociones políticas relacionadas con el golpe de
Estado de 1973 y un prolongado período de depresión económica, a
partir de la segunda mitad de los 80 y sobre todo en los 90 el país fue
relanzando su crecimiento económico, llegando a ser el líder de la región
en este indicador. El promedio de incremento del PIB, que había sido de
2,2·% entre 1969 y 1985, aumentó hasta el 5,6% en el período de 1986 a
2001. Estos logros son, por una parte, resultado de una diversificación
sustancial de las exportaciones del país y su mayor competitividad, que
permitió aumentar la cuota de participación en los mercados mundiales
aunque se mantuvo el carácter de exportación basada fundamentalmente
en materia primas. [Agosin, 1999: 84, Mortimore, Peres, 2001: 10]. Por
otra parte, se explican también a la aplicación de una política más
equilibrada en materia de finanzas y el apoyo prestado a los
inversionistas institucionales.
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Mientras, en muchos países del área – entre ellos, Ecuador, Paraguay,
Colombia e incluso Brasil– sigue sin haber indicios evidentes de un giro
al crecimiento, debido en particular a la influencia de los fenómenos de
crisis en la región asiática (1997), en el propio Brasil (1999) y la recesión
en los EE.UU (2001).
El breve retraso inicial de estos países respecto a los líderes fue una de
las causas de que se formaran varios escalones de países
latinoamericanos desde el punto de vista de la implantación del proyecto
neoliberal. Unos (Chile, México, Argentina, Perú) acometieron las
reformas antes que el grueso de las naciones del continente. Otros las
fueron realizando de modo discontinuo y más lento (Venezuela, Brasil).
Y en otros más (Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador) sólo con ciertas reservas
se puede hablar de transformaciones [Paunovic, 2000: 20].
Del análisis comparativo de las ondas largas en varios países se infiere
que la economía de los EE.UU. adelantaba en su dinámica
macroeconómica a casi todos los economías latinoamericanos, salvo
Chile. De ahí que los primeros síntomas de desacelaración del
crecimiento económico se manifestaran precisamente en la economía
norteamericana. Las Administraciones de Johnson y Nixon, al igual que
las corporaciones transnacionales, no tardaron en dar respuesta a ese
nuevo reto del mercado. Para enfrentar la crisis estructural se adoptó toda
una serie de medidas más o menos afortunadas. Cabe mencionar aquí el
aguijoneo de la demanda de productos del complejo militar-industrial en
el marco de la escalada de la guerra de Vietnam, el paso a la cotización
flotante de las divisas, el inicio de la revolución microelectrónica y el
fomento de producciones que permitían ahorrar recursos, las propuestas
de una nueva división del trabajo entre los países avanzados y los
periféricos (с on empleo de maquiladoras). En el fondo todas estas
medidas no hacн an sino cumplir un pedido tácito del capital productivo
norteamericano. Para sobrevivir en medio de una depresión muy
prolongada, que puede durar entre quince y veinte años, se necesitan
medidas especiales. En condiciones de coyuntura baja las grandes
corporaciones se valen no sólo de los subsidios a la exportación o los
pedidos del Estado, sino también de las ventajas económicas objetivas
que se ofrecen en la zona de los países periféricos. Por efecto del desfase
corto, la depresión en la economía avanzada puede coexistir durante unos
5 ó 10 años con el crecimiento dinámico en la economía periférica. El
La dinámica ondularia en la economía periférica
131
“ milagro brasileño” o el incremento en flecha de la exportación
mexicana de crudos en los años 70 son casos ejemplares.
A pesar de las dudas que reiteradamente se expresaron al respecto, desde
finales de los años ochenta se vio claramente que la economía de EE.UU
había entrado en fase de recuperación del dinamismo. Otra cosa es que en
el contexto de la transición a la sociedad de la información la mejora de
la coyuntura económica no da lugar a los pronunciados despegues
propios de la época industrial. Posiblemente esto sea un indicio de un
cambio en las tendencias generales de crecimiento de los países
avanzados (véase dibujo 2), aunque en lo teórico este problema está
relacionado con la falta de definición en el cálculo de los cifras de
producción y la productividad del trabajo en la “ economía virtual” . Si
en el período de 1950 a1969 el promedio anual de incremento del PIB de
los EE.UU. se cifró en 4,1%, en 1970-1987 fue de 2,8% y en 1988-2000,
de 3,2%.
Dibujo 2. Distintas hipótesis de la dinámica relativa del PIB de
EE.UU. en los años 90.
El análisis comparativo del comportamiento de las economías
desarrolladas y periféricas permite comprender el mecanismo general de
adaptación a la macrocrisis. Por supuesto, podemos decir que en el
primer periodo de depresión prolongada el capital corporativo busca un
nicho de sobrevivencia en el espacio económico de los mercados
periféricos y “ paga” por ello de manera indirecta con créditos baratos.
El intenso movimiento del capital norteamericano y europeo en la
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economía de los países latinoamericanos fue acompañado del traslado de
las tecnologías, tanto bastante obsoletas – en el caso de la metalurgia, la
petroquímica o el montaje de automóviles– como modernas – en el
caso del ensamblaje de computadoras o el de la energía nuclear. Pero tal
situación es efímera y al iniciarse la fase de depresión prolongada en la
economía periférica, como ocurrió después de la crisis mexicana de
1982, el capital empieza a evadir la economía del Sur. En la economía
periférica se forma entonces una enorme brecha en el proceso de
acumulación, se interrumpe el proceso de modernización, de
reproducción, y las instituciones económicas empiezan a funcionar en
régimen de servicio de la deuda externa. De manera directa o indirecta,
los capitales retirados o evadidos de la economía depresiva de
Latinoamérica y otras regiones fueron utilizados en la renovación del
aparato productivo en EE.UU.
Con este fin, en los años 80 la Administración Reagan lanzó el famoso
programa de renovación del complejo militar-industrial y de la industria
aeroespacial (preparativos para la “ guerra de las galaxias” ), y en los 90
la Administración Clinton prestó intenso apoyo al desarrollo del
complejo de la industria microelectrónica y las tecnologías de
comunicación vía Internet.
La crisis de la deuda en los países periféricos y el brusco cambio de la
orientación de los flujos de capital no es un fenómeno exclusivo de los
años ochenta. De hecho semejante situación se produce en cada ciclo
Kondratiev de 50 años [Ugarteche, 1985: 45; Vitale, 1986: 18, 50, 57,
121; Bobróvnikov, 1989]. Así se comprende mejor la mencionada
deducción de Ocampo sobre los “ deudores de última instancia” y el
postulado de Theotonio dos Santos de que no sólo el ciclo económico
adopta diferentes formas en el centro y en la perifería sino que las
economías de subsistencia son amortiguador de los efectos más
dramáticos de las depresiones económicas [dos Santos, 1998a]. Y así
también se aclara la naturaleza de las crisis estructurales prolongadas en
la economía latinoamericana.
Otra peculiaridad de tales períodos transitorios la señala Frank: Cuando
hay una crisis en la economía mundial, las relaciones de dependencia
entre el centro y la periferia se debilitan y la periferia tiene oportunidad
de hacer sus propias cosas, como ocurrió en el Brasil de Getulio Vargas,
en la Argentina de Perón o en el México de Cárdenas. Luego tras la
recuperación de la economía mundial, estas economías tercermundistas
fueron reintegradas en ella [Frank, 1988: 49]. Así, para la región
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latinoamericana el período de reformas neoliberales de los años 90 fue un
periodo similar al descrito por Frank, a saber, no sólo un periodo de
búsqueda de una salida de la macrocrisis, sino también de reintegración
en la economía mundial en el nuevo contexto global.
Pero el mencionado desfase corto es tan sólo una de las regularidades.
El análisis coherente, podemos decir, genético de los procesos
macrocíclicos en los campos de innovaciones relacionadas con la
propagación de los ferrocarriles, la energía eléctrica, las carreteras y
automóviles, las telecomunicaciones y las computadoras, las tecnologías
aeroespaciales revela otra regularidad. Cada nuevo paso en el desarrollo
de las tecnologías, cada sustitución del paradigma tecnológico no sólo
abre una “ ventana de oportunidades” [Pérez, 2001], sino que crea una
situación distinta, esencialmente nueva desde el punto de vista de la
estructura de la oferta y la demanda, de sus protagonistas, de las
relaciones económicas que les convienen y de las reglas del juego que
rijan en los mercados internos e internacionales.
Desde su origen, las jóvenes repúblicas de América Latina llevaban
retraso en cuanto a su integración en la civilización industrial y el libre
acceso al mercado mundial. Si EE.UU. procedió al desarrollo
independiente en el último cuarto del siglo XVIII, este proceso en la
región latinoamericana tuvo lugar más tarde, en los años veinte-cuarenta
del siglo XIX, tras el derrumbe del sistema económico cerrado,
hermético del imperio colonial español. De ahí que en los países
latinoamericanos independientes los procesos de modernización se
iniciaran sólo al final de la primera onda larga, que Shumpeter llamó
“ onda de la revolución industrial” . Este atraso inicial o desfase largo
ha coleado por dos siglos y es la causa principal del bien conocido
fenómeno de la dependencia tecnológica de América Latina. Es sólo
después de la primera guerra mundial, con la industrialización sustitutiva,
cuando apuntó en la región la formación de una base tecnológica propia.
Siendo así, ¿cómo ocurrió entonces que en el lapso de dos siglos los
países latinoamericanos se convirtieran de consumidores de armas y
pertrechos militares y de artículos de lujo importados de Europa en
productores y exportadores de bienes y componentes de las altas
tecnologías? Este problema tiene que ver, ante todo, con la dinámica del
llamado sector moderno, que ejerce considerable influencia en el
desarrollo de la economía latinoamericana.
En las zonas del espacio económico de América Latina donde existían
contactos más intensos con el mercado mundial se formaban los
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epicentros regionales del desarrollo, que designaré más adelante con la
abreviatura ERED. Cada generación de los EREDes en América Latina
tiene un ciclo de vida de aproximadamente medio de siglo, pero con un
desfase de al menos 25 años respecto a la onda larga de Kondratiev.
Pues, el primero ERED apareció en el período comprendido entre las
décadas del 30 y del 70 del siglo XIX en Chile, y el ERED de la cuarta
generación comenzó a formarse en la segunda mitad de los años 70 del
siglo XX en el espacio de los países que integran ahora el Mercosur.
El desarrollo de los EREDes en la economía periférica de mercado se
caracteriza por una serie de procesos.
Primero, en los EREDes se aceleran los procesos de desarrollo de la
economía, especialmente de su sector externo. Sus exportaciones
crecieron a ritmo más rápido que en otros países. Así, en el siglo XX
Venezuela desplazó a la Argentina como primer exportador regional y, a
su vez, en los dos últimos decenios cedió el liderazgo a los países del
Mercosur (véase dibujo 3).
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135
Dibujo 3. Indice de quantum de las exportaciones de bienes (1980 = 100)
Segundo, el ERED se transforma en un imán para el capital foráneo
debido a la gran demanda de recursos que suministra. Por ejemplo, en los
años 1991-2000 los países del Mercosur recibieron más de 180.000
millones de dólares de inversiones directas extranjeras o 49% del monto
regional.
La afluencia de capital, a su vez, contribuye al ingreso de tecnologías
bastante nuevas, destinadas preferentemente al sector exportador. El
ejemplo más destacado fue el desarrollo del sector de las empresas
maquiladoras en México, cuyo número ascendió de cincuenta a tres mil
doscientos en el transcurso de treinta y cinco años.
Tercero, por su nivel de vida más alto que en los espacios limítrofes, los
EREDes suelen experimentar una explosión demográfica ya que atraen a
gran número de inmigrantes extranjeros e internos.
Cuarto, el espacio del ERED poco a poco se va ensanchando – ya sea
por aumento de su área o por valorización de las nuevos recursos
naturales: yacimientos petrolíferos, minerales, etcétera. Al mismo
tiempo, en función del potencial de su sistema económico, los EREDes
empiezan a pretender al liderazgo económico y político en la zona
aledaña o bien en toda la región y en el mundo. Así, Venezuela fue uno
de los miembros fundadores de la OPEP y Brasil es el principal promotor
del proyecto de Área de Libre Comercio de Sudamérica (ALCSA).
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Alexander Bobróvnikov
A diferencia de los tiempos de la Colonia – con su propios polos del
desarrollo, que fueron descritos por Celso Furtado [Furtado, 1972: 1316]– , el proceso de relevo de las generaciones de los EREDes en la
época industrial es un proceso obviamente sinergético. El proceso de
formación de ERED comenzó en Chile central en una estrecha franja
ubicada entre el río Bio-Bio y el desierto de Atacama. Chile fue el primer
país que encontró un hueco apropiado en los mercados internacionales
gracias a la exportación de grano a Perú, California y Australia, y luego
la de salitre y cobre. La formación del ERED de segunda generación en
la región de la Pampa argentina fue el resultado – único en su género– ,
del aprovechamiento de recursos naturales relativamente abundantes para
inrementar a marcha forzada la exportación de productos agropecuaria al
mercado mundial. Posteriormente, en el caso de Venezuela, el ERED se
ensanchó hasta las dimensiones del Estado nacional, y la posición –
inestable en aquellas condiciones– de “ Eldorado petroleo” se
convirtió en el barómetro de la situación económica en el país. En la
actualidad, el ERED abarca el espacio de la agrupación integracionista
Mercosur (véase dibujo 4).
Dibujo 4. Epicentros regionales del desarrollo
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137
(los signos son convencionales).
Desde luego, con esta secuencia de las cuatro generaciones de EREDes
no se agota la relación completa de las peculiarides del desarrollo de
determinados grupos de países. A la par con la cadena netamente
caracterizada de los EREDes aparecen otros centros de tipo transitorio en
que con frecuencia se combinan rasgos correspondientes a dos
generaciones de EREDes. Entre los primeros centros de ese tipo se puede
incluir a Paraguay [Davydov, 1991: 114-115]. Cabe afirmar que durante
el boom del guano (aproximadamente en el período de la segunda onda
larga de 1848 a 1895) Perú llego a tener ciertos rasgos de ERED. La
peculiar ubicación de Panamá y de las repúblicas centroamericanas
determinaron el elevado interés del capital norteamericano por esta zona,
destacándose en este sentido la United Fruit, que creó allí algo así como
un enclave subregional. En todos los casos, la conversión de esos centros
en ERED fue interrumpida por sendos acontecimientos políticos: la
guerra de Paraguay, la derrota de Perú en la Segunda Guerra del Pacífico,
el inicio de la larga guerra de guerrillasen Centroamérica. En la segunda
mitad del siglo XX la parte septentrional de México adquirió rasgos de
epicentro transitorio, pero sus vínculos con el resto de la economía del
país son muy débiles y en esencia viene a ser un superenclave [véanse
detalles en Bobróvnikov, 1999].
Lo peculiar de la última generación de EREDes es determinado por
varios parámetros.
Las relaciones exteriores del ERED de cuarta generación se desarrollaron
como relaciones entre agrupaciones integracionistas, por ejemplo entre
Mercosur y la Comunidad Europea. Y es evidente que las agrupaciones
integracionistas y los bloques integracionistas en formación, como el
ALCA o la APEP, serán la estructura básica del régimen tecnológico y
ordenamiento institucional de la época postindustrial.
A diferencia de las generaciones anteriores de los EREDes, que se vieron
obligados a reestructurar su economía acorde a la demanda del mercado
mundial, los países del Mercosur buscan activamente nuevos socios
comerciales y nuevos mercados para sus productos en Asia, América
Latina, Rusia, etcétera. Los miembros del MERCOSUR son hoy
exportadores de artículos en su mayoría industriales y crece muy
rápidamente la parte de los productos más complejos. Hacia finales de
siglo, el porcentaje de productos industriales en la exportación de Brasil
ascendió hasta el 80%; en Uruguay, hasta el 83%, y en Argentina, hasta
el 67% [CEPAL, 2001: 295, 304, 352]. Lo que buscan ahora los países
suramericanos no son ya las tradicionales ventajas relativas sino ventajas
competitivas. Brasil, que por su producción industrial integra la decena
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Alexander Bobróvnikov
de los mayores países del mundo, – como núcleo del ERED– tiene
capacidad suficiente para pretender a una mayor participación en las
relaciones económicas mundiales, y la agrupación del Sur del continente
americano, a su vez, podría convertirse en un epicentro de desarrollo
universal.
Pero la “ ventana de las oportunidades” da solo una posibilidad
temporal de modernizarse, sin brindar garantías. Los resultados concretos
dependen de que se adopte una estrategía acertada, adecuada y que debe
ser diseñada en el período de la crisis estructural, en el período de
transición. Así lo confirman las diferencias entre la situación de Chile y
la de Argentina, países que formaban parte del grupo de líederes de las
reformas neoliberales.
Cambia también la interpretación de la esencia del propio problema de
modernización. En el transcurso de un decenio el “ esquema del
diamante” de Michael Porter, con las cuatro facetas de las ventajas
competitivas [Porter, 1990], se modificó sustancialmente. Está claro que
ahora el incremento de los índices de productividad requiere la aplicación
de tecnologías informáticas modernas, la utilización de los recursos de
Internet, el paso a un régimen de trabajo en el tiempo real, el desarrollo
del comercio electrónico y el e-business.
Argentina fue uno de los primeros países en acometer un programa
especial denominado “ argentina@internet.todos”
para crear mil
centros de telecomunicación asegurando así a los municipios del interior
del país y la población con bajo nivel de ingresos el acceso a Internet. Sin
embargo, la última crisis ha frenado la realización de este proyecto.
Programas semejantes se están llevando a cabo en México, Chile,
Colombia, Uruguay, Perú y otros países. Brasil inició la modernización
del sector microelectrónica veinte años antes que los demás países del
área y actualmente le corresponde un 60% del comercio electrónico
efectuado según el esquema “ business to business” (B2B) y el 50% de
las operaciones de tipo “ business to consumers” (B2C). El nivel de
automatización del sistema bancario brasileño es uno de los más altos del
mundo. En el año 2000 BRADESCO, el mayor banco del país, ocupo el
tercer lugar en el mundo por el número de clientes online, aventajado
únicamente por Wells Fargo y Bank of America [Financial Times, 2001].
Son más ambiciosas aún las metas que plantea ante esta esfera en Brasil
el Libro Verde sobre la sociedad de la información. Se planea aumentar
para 2005 la parte del sector de la informática hasta el 10% del PIB,
asegurando acceso a Internet en todas las poblaciones de más de 50.000
habitantes. Con este fin se prevé instalar a lo largo y ancho de la
geografía del país 250.000 centros electrónicos y conectar en una misma
red a 73.000 escuelas primarias y secundarias y 2.000 bibliotecas. Las
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catorce mayores ciudades del países serán unidas por arterias superrápidas (hasta 1,2 Gbt/s) de intercambio de información [Brasil. MCT,
2000].
Pero, al mismo tiempo, para adentrarse con éxito en las vías de
asimilación de las tecnologías de la quinta generación (microelectrónica,
biotecnología, nuevos materiales, robotización, tecnologías espaciales)
los países latinoamericanos que aún no han concluido el ciclo industrial
tendrán que resolver un gran conglomerado de problemas económicos y
sociales. En calidad de primer paso es de importancia vital realizar varias
reformas estructurales de segunda y tercera generación, y no solo en la
esfera financiera, como proponen el Fondo Monetario Internacional y
otras instituciones financieras internacionales. Se trata de combinar el
progreso técnico con los lineamientos del desarrollo sostenible [CEPAL,
2000]. La meta primordial de tales reformas consiste en eliminar los
obstáculos que entorpecen el avance por las vías del desarrollo. Por
ejemplo, en la esfera tecnológica, hay que cubrir la llamada “ brecha
digital” . Los gobiernos de los países latinoamericanos entienden que la
transición al desarrollo sostenible pasa necesariamente por la reforma del
sistema de educación, la distribución más equitativa de los recursos e
ingresos, la reducción del sector informal, la formación de parques
tecnológicos, incubadoras de empresas, telecomunicaciones efectivas y
baratas y otros componentes del espacio tecnológico moderno. Es el
camino a ventajas competitivas reales.
En tal contexto, ¿qué cabe esperar en el futuro?
Mientras en EE.UU. ya se ha iniciado la fase de crecimiento dinámico de
la quinta onda de Kondratiev, y gracias a la nueva estructura de los nexos
macroeconómicos y corporativos ello contribuye de modo indirecto a
acelerar el desarrollo de México, Costa Rica y otros países
centroamericanos y caribeños, para la mayoría de los países de
Sudamérica la fase dinámica es cosa de un futuro próximo. Pero en ellos
el carácter sostenido del nuevo ascenso de la economía real va a
depender del cambio de fondo global en los mercados financieros, como
lo ha señalado reiteradas veces J. A. Ocampo.
Por lo visto, el proceso sinergético de desplazamiento de los EREDes
latinoamericanos que se ha venido desarrollando a lo largo de los últimos
dos siglos, empieza a trascender el marco regional propiamente dicho.
Por tanto es posible que en el siglo XXI América Latina desempeñe un
papel más activo e importante a nivel de economía mundial. Pero esto no
va a ocurrir automáticamente. A Gran Bretaña y a los Estados Unidos
también les tocó en su tiempo atravesar graves conflictos internos y
externos, empeñar esfuerzos para convertirse en epicentros del desarrollo
mundial. Los países latinoamericanos deben tener claro concepto de la
estrategia que les permitirá aprovechar las nuevas posibilidades para
acelerar su desarrollo.
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Alexander Bobróvnikov
El análisis de la interacción asincrónica de las economías de los países
desarrollados y periféricos puede facilitar la explicación en muchos
aspectos de su comportamiento en las condiciones de macrocrisis y de
tiempos de ascenso económico, contribuyendo así al desarrollo de la
teoría general de los ciclos económicos. En particular, la teoría de las
ondas largas encierra un notable potencial de pronóstico y puede llegar a
se un importante componente del paradigma científico del siglo XXI.
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CORNELIU MUNTEANU
MARKETING STRATEGY AND QUALITY
MANAGEMENT FOR EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS;
A CASE STUDY
1. Introduction
During the last years there has been greatly required the
development of the capacity of the firms to deliver high quality products
and services. Once the European Standards were introduced, the firms
have concentrated more and more to improve the level of quality and to
increase the level of content shown by the customers.
Also, the competition is more and more obvious. The satisfaction
of the clients depends not only on the relationship between the firm and
the client, but also on the relationship between the competitives and the
client. The expectations of the clients are mainly formed by analysing
several offers. Thus, the modern technological developments, which
facilitate the informational and spatial mobility, changed the situation
and companies which were not in competetion, due to the geographical
position in which they operated, are nowadays direct competitives.
This evolution applies to the universities as well, institutions
which have to face the higher and higher expectations of the people
served by them: students and employers. Under the conditions of a
generalized applicability of the concept of total quality, the universities,
as well as any company, are forced to analyse the quality of the services
on each link of the value chain. The purpose is to deliver to the
employers high quality „products” (graduates). In order to deliver
qualitative graduates, there is needed a qualitative educational process as
well as the use of good quality „materials” (students). In case the
selection of the students is good, the capacity to deliver further on to the
labour market is increased, namely graduates with a high professional
potential.
This evolution has also affected for a few years the Faculty of
Economics and Business Administration from the University in Iasi. The
decisions regarding the educational products, their promotion, regional
distribution and of course, the price policy have been greatly changed.
Such a product is the specialization in Marketing from the above
mentioned faculty.

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 141–152
144
Corneliu Munteanu
This paper, which has a preponderantly applicable vision, includes a
description of the evolution of the process of selection of the future
students who desire to specialize in Marketing at the Alexandru Ioan
Cuza University. The analysis presents details on the following subjects:
 make divisions with the groups of students who choose between the
economical specializations,
 identify the competitive groups from the 10 specializations in the
faculty,
 analysis of options and perceptions regarding the economical
specializations,
 formulate the marketing strategy, which presupposes adapting the
marketing mix elements for which there is given decisional
authority at the level of the department.
The quality of the analysis, strategy and implementation is to be
finally seen in the results. For the analysed period, the evolution of the
indicators measuring the quantitative and qualitative performances show
a significant improvement. The quality of the students who choose to
specialize in Marketing has been constantly growing during the analysed
period. Even more, in comparison to the other specializations in the
competition, The Marketing specialization has been recorded with the
greatest progress.
2. Analysis of the present situation
After the admission examination, the students follow a
programme of introductory training for all specializations, along 4
semesters. At the end of the IInd year, the students make an option for the
specialization they will study during the IIIrd and IVth year. At a first
glance, the options of the students seemed to be a true nebula, a brownian
phenomenon not governed by any intelligible rule. In fact, the close
analysis of the options leads us to the identification of several decisional
patterns. These patterns are used to improve the strategy of working with
the students in such a way to apply marketing concepts such as
segmentation, differentiation and positioning.
The moment of reference, when the first analysis was done, is the month
of July in 2002. Up to that moment, there had already been through the
process of expressing options three generations of students, in June 2000,
2001 and 2002. The students had the possibility to choose between 12
specializations: Agricultural Economy, Banking, Finances-Insurance,
Accounting, General Economics, BUsiness Informatics, Marketing,
Management, Commerce, Tourism-services, International Economical
Marketing strategy and quality management for educational programs
145
Relations and Business Statistics. In 2004, after the new national
nomenclature of university specializations came into force, there were
made two fusions: Banking Finances-Insurance changed into Finaces –
Banking, and Commerce and Tourism-services changed into CommerceTourism-Services.
The number of students
As regards the number of students who chose the specialization in
Marketing, in 2000 there were registered 156 options, fact that ranked
this specialization on the first position from the point of view of the
market share. In 2001 and 2002 there were registered 135, respectively
154 options. From the point of view of the market share, the regress is
obvious; it dropped from 18.8% to 12.2% and then to 11.0%. As
compared to the other specializations, it dropped from the first position to
position no 6. The statistical data regarding the 12 specializations can be
seen in Table 1.
Table 1.
Number of options for the 12 specializations of FEBA
Specialization
Agricultural Business
Banking
Finances-Insurance
Accounting
General Economics
Business Information Systems
Marketing
Management
Commerce
Tourism
International Transactions
Business Statistics
TOTAL
Number of students
2000
2001
2002
11
26
30
141
165
245
94
159
178
141
189
213
22
31
31
92
144
133
156
135
154
50
72
89
31
49
51
24
29
68
48
81
170
19
23
30
829
1104
1392
Market share (%)
2000
2001
2002
1.3
2.3
3.1
17.0
14.9
17.6
11.3
14.4
12.8
17.0
17.1
15.3
2.6
2.8
2.2
11.1
13.0
9.6
18.8
12.2
11.0
6.0
6.5
6.4
3.7
4.4
3.7
2.9
2.6
4.9
5.8
7.3
12.2
2.3
2.0
2.1
100.0 100.0 100.0
For the Marketing specialization, the main problem, as it is
obvious in the above table, is the regress in the market share. What are
the reasons for the regress in the market share? The opinions of the
university teachers converge around the idea of the market maturity. The
increase from 2000 was the result of the enthusiasm, and for the
following years, the options of the students started to ”settle down”, so
that we could assume a stable market share of about 10-11% from the
total number of students.
The quality of the students
Apart from quantity, the quality of the students who are part of the
specialization programme is very important. The quality of the graduates
depends on this quality. The measuring and comparison indicator of
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Corneliu Munteanu
quality is the sum of the accumulated credit-marks for the 4 semesters.
The credit-mark is what comes from the mark given for a course (for
example 9) and the number of credits alloted for that course (for
example, 5). Getting a 9 grade for a course with 5 credits, the student
accumulates 45 credit-marks.
Taking into consideration this indicator, we can divide and rank the 12
specializations into 5 qualitative steps, namely:
1. The first step, occupied by the best students for Accounting,
Business Information Systems and Finances-Insurance, where
the averages are 47, 36 and respectively 33 credits above the
average for the options in 2002.
2. The second step, with the students of average level, is occupied
by Banking, Intrnational Economic Relations and Marketing,
which is situated around the average of the series with +4, +5,
respectively –1 credit.
3. The third step belongs to the specialization in Management,
which has 32 credits below the average.
4. The fourth step is taken by Commerce, Tourism-Services,
General Economics and Business Statistics with 57, 59, 60, 74
credits below average.
5. The last step is taken by Agricultural Economy.
The situation is summarized in the data from table 2.
Table 2.
The average number of credit-marks for the 12 specializations
Average number of
Difference from the average
credit-marks
of the series
2000** 2001*
2002
2000** 2001*
2002
Agricultural Economy
848
812
697
-122
-115
-190
Banking
987
928
891
+17
+1
+4
Finances-Insurance
1015
953
920
+45
+26
+33
Accounting
996
960
934
+26
+33
+47
General Economy
849
862
827
-121
-65
-60
Business Information Systems
960
954
923
+10
+27
+36
Marketing
972
919
886
+2
-8
-1
Management
918
884
855
-52
-43
-32
Commerce
939
889
830
-31
-38
-57
Tourism-Services
946
884
828
-24
-43
-59
International Transactions
971
909
892
+1
-18
+5
Business Statistics
899
886
813
-71
-41
-74
TOTAL
970** 927*
887
0
0
0
**) estimated in 2002, two years later, after the re-examination sesion for the Ist and
IInd years
*) estimated in 2002, one year later, after the re-examination sesion for the Ist and IInd
years
Specialization
Marketing strategy and quality management for educational programs
147
For all 3 years, the students who chose to specialize in Marketing are of
average level. Such a situation is not at all appreciated, especially as the
quality of the students and the image of the specialization will not be of
top level.
Why is the Marketing specialization losing students?
The answer to this question can lead to the identification of the
specializations competing directly with Merketing. It is possible to make
such an analysis by taking into consideration the students who ranked this
specialization on the second position in the preferences from the options
chart. We can notice, after the first analysis, that the specialization in
Marketing was ranked the second, from the point of view of 185 students.
Table 3.
Distribution of the first option for the students who ranked
Marketing in the 2nd place
Specialization
Agricultural Economy
Banking
Finances-Insurance
Accounting
General Economy
Business Information
Systems
Marketing
Management
Commerce
Tourism-Services
International Transactions
Business Statistics
TOTAL
Number of
rankings in the
2nd place
0
310
261
83
8
74
185
148
97
72
145
7
1390
specialization
Average –
ranked in the 1st
credit-marks
place
1
28
859
8
17
0
20
875
40
16
12
43
0
185
861
902
887
Out of the 185 students who rank the specialization in Marketing
on the 2nd position, 43 students ranked International Transactions on the
1st position, 40 students ranked Management, 28 Banking, 20 Business
Information Systems. These four specializations are the main competitives
in favour of the Marketing specialization loses students.
The second aspect which is analysed, shown in the last column of
the table, regards the quality of the students in favour of other
specializations. The analysis shows us that the average of the number of
credit-marks for the whole number of students in a series (of 1390
students) was 887. In favour of Business Information Systems there were
lost students with an average of 875 credit-mark, in favour of
Management students with 861 credite-marks and on favour of Banking,
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Corneliu Munteanu
students with 859 credit-marks. That means, students with results below
the average. But, the ones in favour of International Transactions have an
average of 902 credit-marks, which means they are very good students.
Corroborating this result with the one concerning the lost students, it
clearly results the fact that the specialization in International Transactions
is the main competitive. He most valuable students and the great number
of them is lost in favour of this specialization.
The Analysis of the Students' Perception on the Specialization
in Marketing
The previously stated conclusion determined us to make a survey
in October 2002 among the students following the other specializations,
in order to indentify the weak points of the specialization in Marketing.
Obviously, the focuss of the analysis were the students from International
Transactions. The most important objective was to identify the reasons
why the students prefer International Transactions to Marketing.
The top of the first three reasons named by the students which
stopped them to choose Marketing are:
 The syllabus for the IIIrd and IVth year for the specialization in
Marketing and the fact that the students are not given the opportunity
to study a second foreign language (40% of the students),
 The students think they are not creative enough for this specialization
(21% of the students)
 For the Marketing specialization there is supposed to be done too
much work on semestrial projects during the IIIrd and IVth year (20%
of the students).
These results are obtained from the answers given by all the
participants to that particular specialization. The result is substantially
changed when we select the answers of only the good students, with over
900 credit-marks. Thus, the percentages for the three reasons change
significantly, as follows:
 Absence of foreign languages from the syllabus: 50% of the good
students
 Lack of personal creativity: 31% of the good students
 Avalanche of semestrial projects: 3% (compared to 20%,
previously).
This result leads us to the conclusion that the main two reasons why
the good students choose International Transactions instead of Marketing
are: 1) Absence of foreign languages from the syllabus from the IIIrd and
Marketing strategy and quality management for educational programs
149
IVth year 2) the perception of the students that they lack creativity which
is required in order to follow the specialization in Marketing.
3. Adjustment of the strategy of market approach
All these results lead to the elaboration of a unitary strategy to
attract the students during the years 2002-2006. Obviously, in the
elaboration of the strategy there were many contraints coming from the
fact that the teaching department has a limited decisional power. Thus,
there are constraints coming from the higher body , namely the ministery,
from the level of the University and the Faculty. Some of these
constraints limit the options of change, while others limit the freedom of
chosing the moment of change. A second category of constraints is due to
the limited resources available to the teaching department; limited
resources as regards the teachers as well as teaching resources.
The objectives aimed by the adjustment of the strategy are: 1)
improvement of the quality of the students attracted by the specialization
in Marketing and 2) maintain a number of students ranking between 120150 persons.
Adaptation of the teaching strategy of The Basics of Marketing
discipline
The discipline ”The Basics of Marketing” is part of the common
group of disciplines, taught to the students of Faculty during the IInd year.
This discipline gives the teachers the possibility to know the students and
consequently to influence their options. The specific elements aimed to
be accomplished are:
 Focus the attention of the good students, with results above the
average. By attention we mean offering more time to communicate
during the seminar classes. Also, the contents of the seminar will be
adapted ti this group. More precisely, there will be emphasized the
quantitative applications of marketing, the intellectual challenge
through GMAT tests and encouraging creative thinking.
 Create a professionist image of the team of teachers. The key words
are “business-look” and “business behavior”. Using the behaviour
and the look, there must be created the perception that the
Marketing requires a high degree of professionalism.
 Create an internal evaluation system of the teachers, which would
motivate the obtainment of high performances. For this purpose
there was taken into consideration the indicator ”coefficient of
extraction from the top of the first 33%”. At the end of each year,
there are analysed the results obtained by each teacher, namely the
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Corneliu Munteanu
number of students from the first third of the hierarchy, whom they
succeeded in bringing to the specialization in Marketing
These elements were introduced starting from the university year
2002-2003 and have been slightly changed until the present.
Adaptation of the syllabus
The changes in the syllabus were possible starting only from the
year 2003-2004. The main change was the addition of a Foreign language
as a discipline (Italian, German, Spanish). There was also introduced a
Course on Distribution and Logistics.
4. Results
In order to measure the results and analyse the evolution obtained
during the years 2003-2006 there are used two indicators. The first
measures the quality of the students – the average of the credit-marks
obtained during the Ist and IInd year – and the second measures the
quantity – the number of students who choose this specialization.
The quality of the students
As regards the quality, the evolution of the 7 years taken into
consideration is summarized in table 4. There are excluded from the
presentation three specializations: Agricultural Economy, General
Economy and Business Statistics. The reason is that the 3 specializations
attract only a small number of students who also have a very weak
influence in the competitive interaction of the other specializations.
Table 4.
Evolution of the average number of credit-marks
accumulated during 2000-2006
Specialization
Accounting
Banking
Finances-Insurance
Business Information Systems
Management
Marketing
International Transactions
Commerce
Tourism-Services
2000
+26
+16
+44
-10
-35
+4
-1
-19
-9
2001
+34
+3
+23
+24
-64
-7
-20
-69
-17
2002
+46
+3
+34
+35
-28
-1
+4
-48
-53
years
2003
+64
+10
+53
-11
-83
+34
-12
-63
-81
2004 2005 2006
+77 +91 +114
+55
+59
+61
+20
-38
+24
-69
+28
-16
+60
-47
+25
-18
+65
-35
-64
-65
-58
Marketing strategy and quality management for educational programs
151
The evolution of the specialization in Marketing presented two obvious
leaps: the first one in 2003 and the second in 2005, when it went up to the
second position in the hierarchy. The graphic situation for the 5
specializations is presented below:
150
abatere
notecredit
100
50
0
-50
-100
2000
2001
2002
conta
2003
fn-bc
info
2004
mark
2005
2006
rei
Figure 1. Chart of the evolution of the quality of the students for each
specialization
We can notice the continuous ascendant trend for the
specialization in Accounting, which continues to attract the students with
the best results. A similar situation is known for the specialization in
Finances – Banks. The specialization in Marketing is the one which
successfully had the greatest ascent. In 2005 it managed to go up to the
second position, which was consolidated in 2006, after the period 20002002 when was constantly on the 4-5th position. There are registered
very poor results from the point of view of the quality of the students
following International Transactions, who have ranked during the last
years way below average, and the Commerce, Tourism and Services
which attract the students with the poorest results.
The number of students
As regards the number of students who chose to specialize in
Marketing during 2003-2006, the succes was to register 120-150 persons,
during that period of time. As regards the market share, it had a
favourable evolution as well. The data is presented in table 5.
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Corneliu Munteanu
Table 5.
Evolution of the market share for the period 2000-2006
Agricultural Economy
Accounting
General Economy
Finances - Banks
Business Information Systems
Marketing
Management
International Transactions
Business Statistics
Commerce, Tourism and Services
TOTAL percentage (%)
TOTAL number of STUDENTS
Number of students Marketing
Market share (%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1.3
2.3
3.1
2.2
1.9
4.2
2.7
17.0 14.9 17.6 14.0 14.3 11.2 11.7
2.6
2.8
2.2
2.2
1,9
4.2
2.3
28.3 29.3 30.4 33.4 25.7 24.9 23.8
11.1 13.0
9.6
8.5
7.8
5.1
6.4
18.8 12.2 11.0
9.1
12.0 10.2
7.9
6.0
6.5
6.4
4.3
6.5
6.7
9.2
5.8
7.3
12.2 14.7 11.2 13.2 13.3
2.3
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.9
4.2
2.5
6.6
7.0
8.6
9.2
16.8 16.2 20.2
100 100
100 100 100 100
100
829 1104 1392 1336 1668 1424 1747
156 135
154 121 186 145
138
As we mentioned above, in the section about the analysis of the
present situation, the market share of the specialization in Marketing
continuously decreased during 2001-2003. Starting with 2004 it
stabilized around the level of 10%, for a number of approximately 150
students. This is actually the desired level. It is difficult to manage a
greater number of students due to the overwork of the teachers. A smaller
number is already non-economical, regarding the budget of the
department. In 2006, the market share dropped to 7.9%. The main reason
is the repositioning of the specialization. The disciplines from the IIIrd
and IVth year have become richer in content and oriented more on
quantitative analysis. Thus, the group of students in favour of „soft”
turned to the specializations in Management and the Commerce, Tourism
and Services, while the group in favour of „hard” did not give up yet the
preference for Finances – Banks and Accounting. Such an evolution is
normal and accepted by the management of change. When the marketing
strategy is changed, the first result is losing a part of the market. Only
afterwards is the new segment attracted.
The fact that this specialization is situated at a level of 10% of the
market share, that is on the 5th position from the point of view of the
hierarchy, it could be seen as lack of performance of the teaching team.
But, the situation is not of this nature. In order to form a real image, we
should take into consideration the evolution of this quotation as
compared to the one from the moment when these students set for the
admission examination: July 2003, respectively July 2004. The
comparison of the two moments is presented in the following table. The
Marketing strategy and quality management for educational programs
153
students who set for the admission examination in 2003 are the same
with the ones who would choose the specializations in 2005. The ones
who set for the admission examination in 2004, chose the specialization
in 2006.
Table 6.
Evolution of the market shares from the moment of the admission
examination to the moment of the specialization.
Accounting
Finances - Banks
Business Information Systems
Marketing
Management
International Transactions
Commerce- Tourism- Services
TOTAL
Market share (%)
admission admission
2003
2004
8.54
8.12
30.49
30.85
6.11
3.77
7.08
8.12
8.26
10.03
26.39
23.14
10.35
13.74
97.22
97.77
Market share (%)
options
options
2005
2006
11.2
11.7
24.9
23.8
5.1
6.4
10.2
7.9
6.7
9.2
13.2
13.3
16.2
20.2
87.5
92.5
During 2003-2005, the specialization in Marketing accomplishes
an increase 44% (from 7.08% to 10.2%). But, the specialization in
International Transactions decreases by half, from 26.39% to 13.2%. The
market share of the specialization Finances – Banks decreases by 22%,
from 30.49% to 24.9%.
During 2004-2006, the quotation for Marketing decreases
slightly, from 8.12% to 7.9%. The reason of this decrease is the
movement of repositioning, discussed above.
5. Conclusion
The marketing strategy can be used to manage the quality of the
products of an organization, be it a firm, a non-profit organization, a
governmental institution or an institution outside the public services. It is
important that the analysis elements, planning and implementation should
be properly used.
As it could be seen from the above description, the instruments
from the domaine of marketingului, which are related to market shares,
choosing the tarket-market, competition analysis, positioning and
differentiating, can be applied even for the universities. With their help
there is acquired a final better quality of the graduates and a higher
degree of client satisfaction.
154
Corneliu Munteanu
References
1. Anderson, C.H., Julian W.Vincze, Strategic Marketing Management,
Houghton Mifflin, 2000.
2. Duro, R., Bjorn Sandstrom, Strategies guerrieres en marketing, Les
Editions d’Organisation, Paris, 1988.
3. Kotler, P., Karen F.A. Fox, Strategic Marketing for Educational
Institutions, Prentice Hall, 1995.
4. Lehmann, D.R., Sunil G., Joel H. Steckel, Marketing Research,
Addison-Wesley, 1998.
5. Marder, E., Comportamentul consumatorilor, Editura Teora,
Bucureşti, 2002.
6. Porter, M.E., Competitive Strategy; Techniques for Analyzing
Industries and Competitors, The Free Press, 1998.
VALERIU DORNESCU
THE DEBTS’ CONVERSION INTO SHARES
AS A SANITATION METHOD
FOR THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY
1. Introduction
One of the many attempts for solving the finacial blocking from
the Romanian economy, along with accelerating the privatization for a
number of firms still remained under the state’s domain, is the 1998
regulation [4], which allows for the trading companies to convert their
debts (whether bugetary, comercial or to the banks) into shares.
At first glance, as opposed to the traditional way of putting the
assets of the debtor under distraint, opening actions in law or sales by
order of the court, this measure would constitute as a comfortable
alternative for the trading companies, the state and the banks to recover
their debts. The shares received from the creditors (including the state) in
exchange of the debts could be rapidly sold on the market for cash.
Moreover, this regulation could lead to diminishing the economic
backwardness and accelerating the privatization process.
2. Debt’s convertion mechanism
After the year of 2000, the conversion of the debts into shares
became a highly used method in the privatization process, based on the
common goal of erasing the debts of the trading companies on the selling
list and attracting the investors.
The legal framework for these financial operations has been
improved once more by new various means [5] by which, the indebted
trading companies holding the state or the local public autority as
shareholders, could erase their bugetary debts. Thus, at the request of the
Ministry of Finance, the companies could issue and sell convertible
bonds, or convert their trading debts into shares issued or bonds.
At the same time, it has been legislated that the financial
conversions into shares of the debts that a trading company has to
another or to the state, are allowed only with the creditors’ agreement.
This way, the decisions previously made only if approved by the syndic

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 153–158
156
Valeriu Dornescu
judge, that sometimes transformed the state from creditor to shareholder,
outside its will, are eliminated.
In practice, these measures numbered some positive effects. Thus,
the privatization of the combined group of enterprises SIDEX Galati, one
of the state’s enterprises with great losses, lead to positive performances
three years after SIDEX was bought by LNM Group.
Table 1
The direct net effect of state subsidiaries for the take over of
SIDEX by LNM Group
Revenues
$ mil
Losses
$ mil.
Erased debts (by share
Price of acquisition
70
convertion and share sale at 9
770
cents/1 dollar)
Money previously spent by
Interest rate for social
the State for covering the
300
contributions postponed for 3
17
enterprise’s losses.
years
Compensatory fees for
Aggregates in 3 years
900
discharged employees
47
(payable before November 2004)
Total
970
Total
832
Net effect positive, starting the third year of acquisition (2006)
Source: Dăianu Daniel, Păslaru Dragoş, Voinea Liviu, Aspecte ale falimentului în
economia românească, European Institute from România, Bucharest, 2004, p. 68
As showed in Table 1, the losses of the Romanian State before
November 2004, as a consequence of the privatization of SIDEX,
amounted to $832 is less than the revenues from the privatization of
SIDEX amounted, on the other hand, to $970 million.Three years after the
privatization, SIDEX turned to profit, leading to the State’s bugetary
incomes, collected from the taxes and incomes generated by SIDEX.
Another successful privatization is the one of the siderurgical
group of enterprises from Hunedoara, also acquired by MITAL STEEL
Company. The commercial debts of this siderurgical group of enterprises
to a number of trading companies, (such as DISTRIGAZ NORD,
ELECTRICA – Banat, SNCFR Bucureşti and SNCFR Marfă) at the time
of the privatization were again converted into shares. Subsequently, the
shares owned by DISTRIGAZ NORD and ELECTRICA – Banat, issued
as a result of a 9,8 million Euro debt, have been payed off by the
stockholder. This method is to be used also for the shares owned by
SNCFR Bucureşti and SNCFR Marfă.
The Debts’ conversion into shares as a sanitation method for … economy
157
3. Conclusions
The conversion of debts into shares is a method used also for the
successful privatization of a number of trading companies from the
energy sector. Their debts have been converted into shares, which
allowed their privatization. The following Table includes the trading
companies privatized with this method:
Table 2
Successful privatizations in the energy sector
Trading
company
Strategic
investor
Date of
agreement
PETROM S.A.
DISTRIGAZ
SUD S.A.
DISTRIGAZ
NORD S.A.
ELECTRICA
Oltenia S.A.
ELECTRICA
Banat S.A.&
ELECTRICA
Dobrogea S.A.
ELECTRICA
Moldova S.A.
OMV (Austria)
E.ON Ruhrgas
(Germany)
Gas de France
(France)
CEZ (Czech
Republic)
23 July 2004
Price of
transaction
-mil./Euro1.500
18 Oct 2004
311
21 Oct 2004
304
5 Apr. 2005
151
Enel (Italy)
19 July 2004
112
E.ON Energie
(Germany)
4 April 2005
100
Starting with 2003, various other trading companies were selected
for the convertion of their debts: : USG Govora, Industria Sârmei Câmpia
Turzii, Republica Bucureşti, Nitramonia Făgăraş, Chimcomplex Borzeşti,
Letea Bacău, Moldosim Vaslui, Corapet Corabia, Fortus Iaşi, Palas
Constanţa, IMUM Medgidia, Bicapa Tîrnăveni, Băneasa Voluntari,
Tractorul Braşov, Roman Braşov, and so on. Another positive effect,
next to their integral privatization, is that AVAS managed to collect
considerable sums from selling their shares to various investors.
The conversion of the debts into shares aiming to accelerate the
privatization has not always had positive effects, since:
- not all the trading companies made the object of these regulations
158
Valeriu Dornescu
- the stock exchange also alowed indebted yet unprofitable
companies
- some commercial banks proved reticent to the convertion of debts
in risky shares with volatile rates.
On the other hand, this measure affected for a long period of time
the energy sector, basically turned into the best “bank” for the trading
companies about to be privatized by the State. The unpaid debts of these
companies to their service providers were transformed into shares, the
penalties and the delays were erased, and the providers became
involuntary shareholders, without any guarantee of recovering their
credits. Moreover, in a number of cases, the State did not manage to sell
the shares to the investors. This resulted in the acceleration of the debts’
circuit and the economy backwardness. Only after the service providers
were privatized in turn and the delays declined had these negative
economic effects been repelled.
The Competition Council also contested the debts’ conversion
method in the privatization process, since in various cases this measure
basically meant masked assistance from the state, polutting the
competition environment. At the European level, for instance, the
European Union has specific guidelines [1; p.70] regarding the assistance
in this matters :
- should be based on a viabile reorganization plan;
- should not affect competition (compensative measures should be
undertaken, if necessary);
- should be limited only to the minimum necessary sums;
- should be granted only once;
- should be strictly screened.
In most of the cases, Romania fails to respect the principle of
unicity : the State’s assistance in either repetitive1, either frequent, and it
often adresses companies that have losses. The first principle is also
infringed by the Romanian authorities, many companies being artificially
kept alive for social considerations or political benefits.
The restructuration process and the privatization of the Romanian
economy must assume clear norms for the State’s subsidiaries and
assistance (also regarding the debts’ convertion into shares) and focus on
selecting the viable companies, competition orientated and capable of
1
For example, in the case of some failed privatizations, there have been awarded
privatization facilities (payment facilities, the erase of price increases and/ or
penalties), and subsequently the State became major owner by debt take over in
shares. The most recent case is RAFO Oneşti.
The Debts’ conversion into shares as a sanitation method for … economy
159
assuming their managerial decisions. State’s protective intervention can
diminish their capacities to adjust on the market. With regards to the
privatization process, the trading companies “prepare for the market
competition, and not to passively wait for the investor to miracuously
repair the disaster caused by several years of inneficiency” [1; p.74].
The excessive protection measures for state or private companies
can lead to the generalization of financial indiscipline, “the increased
potential of moral hazard” [1; p.113]. For instance, a sustained absolving
policy (including the share conversion method) can encourage other
debtors to avoid paying their debts, which is frequently the case for the
Romanian economy. The State’s subsidiaries –regardless under which
form- in the restructuration process must be indeed the exception
confirming the rule and not an instrument of delay for temporary
unpopular decisions. The acceleration of the reform is essential, giving
the present sistemic crisis and the lack of liquidity of Romanian
economy, in addition to the large number of assets still under State’s
property. For the companies with no real perspective, the reform should
mean their liquidation, the faliment, associated in parallel with measures
of absorbtion for the discharged personnel. This becomes even more
imperative, as a number of comparative studies already highlighted
Romania’s inclination for judicial reorganization and less towards the
faliment.
Another controversy related to the debt’s conversion into shares is
caused by the missing legal support allowing the State to collect the
interest and the penalties of the unpaid debts. The debts converted into
shares that remain unsold should follow an arduous process of putting the
penalties up-to-date, so the State will be assured of a dynamic protection
and integral conservation of its rights. Moreover, the existing legislation
allows convertions made at the nominal rates of shares, and it often
happened that quotations on the stock exchange were, for many firms,
under their nominal rate. Thus, the debts’ convertion into shares has often
been labelled as masked assistance on behalf of the State, generating
economic litigations and critiques from the European Union.
In conclusion, we argue that the measure of converting the debts
of the Romanian trading companies under the State’s property into shares
should not constitute the only alternative in accelerating the
restructuration process and the privatization of the Romanian economy.
This measure should be embraced only in particular and well defined
cases, and along with the other measures invoving State’s subsidiaries, to
respect the existent European principles with regards to competition.
160
Valeriu Dornescu
References
1. Dăianu, D., Pîslaru, D., Voinea, L., Aspecte ale falimentului în
economia românească, European Institute from Romania, Bucharest,
2004.
2. Voinea, Gh. (coordonator), Mecanismele financiar-monetare în
procesul tranziţiei la economia de piaţă, Editura Sedcom Libris, Iaşi,
1999.
3. ***, Legea nr. 64/1995 privind procedura reorganizării judiciare şi a
falimentului.
4. ***,O.G. nr. 10/1997 cu privire la diminuarea blocajului financiar şi
a pierderilor din economie.
5. ***, O.U.G. nr. 211/1999 pentru modificarea şi completarea O.G. nr.
11/1996 privind executarea creanţelor bugetare.
6. ***, O.U.G. nr. 40/2002 pentru recuperarea arieratelor bugetare.
7. ***, O.U.G. nr. 23/2004 privind stabilirea unor măsuri de
reorganizare a Autorităţii pentru Valorificarea Activelor Bancare
prin comasarea prin absorbţie cu Autoritatea pentru Privatizare şi
Administrarea Participaţiilor Statului.
IONEL-CIPRIAN ALECU
ASSISTING DECISION-MAKING AT REGIONAL
LEVEL USING THE PENTAGON METHOD
1. Introduction
The economic and social transformations undergone by any
transition society, the Romanian one included, have not been particularly
coherent and integrated into a long-term strategy. The restrictive
economic conditions, the lack of financial flows to provide the minimum
required resources, combined with certain other factors of a political
kind, have most often led to the making of short-term decisions primarily
aimed at meeting immediate needs and lacking a appraisal of their
continuity. Under the circumstances, sustainable and harmonious
development is unlikely, the impact being felt both in the composing
elements and at the level of society as a whole.
The research of the economic and social situation at national or
regional level requires first a predominantly descriptive approach of the
main aspects under consideration and then an analytical approach, which
involves the identification of the relevant laws and processes, in order to
forecast phenomena, establish objectives and base decision-making. Both
directions have evolved from a methodological perspective in terms of
the development of own methods and the adoption of methodologies
from other sciences, etc.
The difficulty of assessing the actual situation in a particular field,
or sector of activity (at national or regional level) is increasingly higher
due to the very many transformations that occur at short intervals and
their manifold implications. At the same time, any such research must
take into account the interdependencies that occur between the indicators
of the macro and the microeconomic progress of a certain country or
region and must focus on its specific elements.
Decision-makers at central or local level must collect a wide
range of data which, most often, proves to be difficult to systematise and
structure in view of the uniform and integrated approach of the main
objectives of sustainable development. In this article, we put forward the
pentagon method as an important and easy to use instrument of analysis.
Assisting decision-making by using the pentagon method
responds to the two directions of research at macro- and microeconomic
level: to describe the situation and to analyse the phenomena and their
dynamic, thus providing the information base for setting short, medium

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 159–166
162
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
and long-term objectives, for decision-making, and to identify the factors
at work and the phenomena.
2. The concept of decision-making pentagon
The impact of any strategy at national or regional level is not limited to a
single field of activity. It can cause qualitative and quantitative changes
also to the adjacent elements of the field or system in question. At the
same time, any decision, in any field, must be systemic, subordinated to
certain fundamental medium or long-term objectives. For this reason, the
analysis of the development and progress of an economy or of a society
in general cannot be achieved by means of a single value, regardless of
its degree of aggregation. Increasingly, a set of indicators is employed
which has acknowledged synthesis capacity and relevance in economic
theory and practice and regional and national level. The use of the
decision-making pentagon proposes a model of processing and analysing
data which is at most times difficult to aggregate or cumulate.
Two ideas underlay the definition of this system of analysis. The
former is based on the model of the ‘macroeconomic stabilisation
pentagon’ [1, p.175] proposed by Elena Pelinescu and Mariana Nicolae, a
model used in the comparative analysis of Romania and Hungary in
terms of their economic development policies in the period 1990-2001.
Five indicators were considered: Gross Domestic Product,
unemployment rate, inflation rate (expressed by the index of consumer
goods prices), the balance of the consolidated budget, and the balance of
the current account. The procedure involved that besides the
simultaneous analysis of several values, five triangles were also used in
an original manner (the scope of reality, unemployment and inflation,
budget and inflation, financial balance, foreign sector). Emphasis was
placed both on the individual progress and on their overall (pentagon)
progress, on the interdependencies between the elements in highlighting
the coherence of the progression of the implemented policies.
The latter idea is based on a concept which involved the
utilisation of several scoring functions, the reduction of the bankruptcy
liability [2, p. 80], functions which can be aggregated in the shape of a
pentagon.
Our method advances the use of five indicators in the description
and analysis of a decisional situation at regional level. Graphically, they
turn into the spokes of a pentagon (fig.1.). The selection of the five
indicators must meet the data requirements for the field under
consideration and also the projected fundamental objectives.
Assisting decision-making at regional level using the pentagon method
163
Figure 1. The pentagon of analysis
For example, if one analyses human development, some of the
most representative indicators would be: the index of human
development, the index of disparity between the sexes, the index of
involvement in the economic, social and political life, the index of
poverty, etc.
The method of selecting these units will especially meet both the
descriptive requirements of the method (to reflect the analysed situations
in qualitative and quantitative terms), and also those of intersystemic
comparability (by the general and all-inclusive character of the
indicators, acknowledged by national and international institutions).
Another important element of the proposed method is the
definition of a reference indicator (fig.1) among the five selected units,
which is particularly inclusive and whose relevance is widely recognised.
Its main purpose is to facilitate a high degree of intra-systemic
comparability with elements and progressions in different fields. It
represents the main unit to which the other indicators can relate and by
which one can trace the level of harmonisation with medium and longterm strategies at the level of the whole region, in various sectors of
activity.
164
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
Usually, in the above-mentioned example, this position is
occupied most often by the gross domestic product, the index of human
development, the life expectancy, etc, depending on the selected research
priority.
In order to ensure an adequate analysis of the method of
implementing strategies and of basing the main development objectives,
the definition of two reference thresholds is proposed (fig.1):
- threshold 1 represents the level of development required but
not sufficient which the system must achieve in the process;
- threshold 2 represents the proposed level of the objective
projected in the medium or long run.
The way in which the two thresholds are based depends on the
nature of each of the indicators included in the model and on the
development strategy proposed in the field under consideration. For
example, Romania, as a developing country, must provide for a range of
basic social and economic conditions, and in view of its accession to the
EU it must reach parameters similar to those of the older member states.
The situation at a given time in relation to these reference points
determines the strategic orientation of the main resources available to it
and leads to the outlining of the main directions of sustainable
development. These thresholds equally turn into feedback elements for
the manner of implementing decisions.
By the simultaneous review of several units, the method meets the
descriptive requirements of any research, and provides the opportunity to
identify the trends and recurrences occurring during processes, as well as
the relevant laws and phenomena.
Remarks on the application of the method:
 We propose the following analysis quotients:
A1 The simple minimal quotient defined by:
I
(1)
Cmi  i *100, i  1,5
I1i
where : - Cmi stands for the simple minimal quotient i
- I i - observed value of indicator i
- I1i - minimal value of indicator i corresponding to a minimum
level of development
A2 The systemic minimal quotient (aggregate), defined by:
A
(2)
Cm s 
* 100
A p1
where :
Assisting decision-making at regional level using the pentagon method
165
- Cm s - stands for the systemic minimal quotient
- A- area of the observed pentagon
- Ap1- area of pentagon 1 (small) of development
B1 The simple objective quotient, defined by:
I
(3)
Coi  i *100,
i  1,5
I 2i
where: - Coi stands for the simple objective quotient corresponding to
indicator i
- I 2i - projected value of indicator i
B2 The systemic objective quotient (aggregate), defined by:
A
(4)
Cos 
* 100
A p2
where: - Cos - stands for the systemic objective quotient
- Ap2- area of pentagon 2 (corresponding to a projected level of
development)
C
Stability quotient (or of sustainable development), defined
by:
4
Cs 
 I i  I ref
i 1
* 100
(5)
4 * I ref
Cs stands for the stability quotient in the field under
where: discussion
- I ref - reference indicator
- I i - indicator i being considered.
The simple quotients express the degree of achievement of a
certain required level of development. They range from 0 and 100. If
their value is very low or close 0 (the minimal value), the problems
become more serious; if their values are high, closer to or above 100, the
situation is improving; the calculation of these values is only justified in
cases when the minimum levels of development are not achieved.
The objective quotients reflect the degree of achievement of a
certain development goal established by medium and long-term policies
and strategies. They can vary from 0 to 100; a value higher than 1 is
obtained by exceeding the objectives. This requires their reconsideration.
The higher the values the more positive the situation is.
166
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
The stability quotient expresses the balanced development of the
analysed system. By reflecting the different progress rhythms recorded in
various segments of activity of the system the principle of sustainable
development is exposed.
This quotient ranges from 0 to 100. When the value is higher, the
unbalances within the system in question are greater which causes gaps
to become wider and problems more serious. When its value is closer to
0 it signifies harmonious balanced development.
 The position of an indicator below level 1 determines a change in
decision priorities towards that segment; if this does not happen
imbalances become more serious.
 As in the case of the ‘macroeconomic stabilisation pentagon’ one
can define specific analysis triangles [1, p. 176];
 The method also provides for a graphical interpretation:
 The greater the area of the resulting pentagon, the better the
recorded situation;
 The more differences there are between the sides of the
pentagon, the less harmonious the development is, with
differing rates for the fields under consideration;
 The closer it is to a classical pentagon, the more the
conducted policy leads to a situation of stabilisation and
sustainable development;
 In cases when there results a concave pentagon serious
imbalances are recorded for the implemented strategies,
reflecting the vulnerability of the system in the given field.
3. The stages of implementation
The following stages are proposed for the practical application of
such a method:
- identifying the direction of research on development at
regional or national level;
- defining the most representative specific indicators of
research; this can be done on the basis of specialist expertise
or of the long-established trends in economic theory and
practice;
- selecting the reference indicator that should allow greater
comparability with other fields or sectors of activity both at
regional and at national level;
Assisting decision-making at regional level using the pentagon method
167
- standardising indicators depending on the nature of the
analysed units, according to the following equations:
in the case of growth indicators : I j 
in the case of decline indicators : I j 
I j  I min
I max  I min
I max  I j
I max  I min
- defining the reference thresholds related to the projected
objectives at regional and national level;
- building the pentagon;
- analysing the progression and current situation by using the
method;
- defining the priorities and basing the decision;
- implementing and tracking the achievement of objectives.
The chief advantages of this method include:
- ease of implementation;
- the graphical mode enables a better understanding and
observation of reality;
- by the simultaneous employment of several analysis
indicators the pentagon method has a greater inclusion
capacity;
- it permits an analysis of the development dynamics from the
perspective of several indicators analysed simultaneously;
- it ensures a higher degree of inter and intra-systemic
comparability;
- it can constitute an instrument of quantitative analysis in the
case of hard to formalise problems;
- it guarantees a complex feedback system based on several
values;
- its users can belong variously to central and local
administration institutions and to public companies or cultural
and research organisations.
4. Conclusions
Giving priority to certain fields only, approaching them
independently from the other components, applying the principle of
filling gaps without tracking causes and effects, can only lead to
lingering and deteriorating problems turning into ‘chronical’ state.
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Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
Decision-making cannot exclusively be performed by analysing a single
characteristic, regardless of its degree of data aggregation.
The ‘pentagon’ provides the opportunity to analyse both the
coherence of durable development policies, and their degree of
sustainability, and the manner of harmonisation with other policies at
regional and national level. As opposed to the ‘macroeconomic
stabilisation pentagon’ the standard values of the indicators are used not
their progress in time. The model guarantees a high degree of
comparability and aggregation of different units. At the same time,
through the defined quotients, the characterisation of the level of
development can be both targeted (simple quotients) and global (systemic
quotients). Thus it meets both the descriptive and the analytical
requirements and uses multiple criteria to base decision-making in the
area of complex and sustainable development.
References
1. Pelinescu, E., Nicolae, M., Pentagonul de stabilizare
macroeconomică . Analiza comparativă – România şi Ungaria, în
volumul Oeconomica nr.4, Editura Tiparg, Piteşti, 2002;
2. Alecu I.C., Utilizarea pentagonului în reducerea incertitudinii de
evaluare a riscului de faliment, in volumul Economia regională.
Problemele şi perspectivele dezvoltării. Editura Univesităţii de Stat
“Alecu Russo”, Bălţi, R. Moldova, 2005;
3. Tacu, Al.P., Consideraţii asupra statisticii ca disciplină ştiinţifică, în
volumul Probleme actuale de statistică, coordonatori Elisabeta Jaba şi
Al. P. Tacu, Editura Junimea , Iaşi 2004.
VALERIU DORNESCU
THE “ENDEMIC” CORRUPTION
1. Introduction
First of May 2004 represents a milestone in the history of
mankind. In addition to its traditional dimension, calling people for
celebration, this date signifies the birth of the largest single market in the
world, gathering the West, North and Central Europe. Nearly 500 million
people are part of a new trend, and a new emerging elite. On May 1
2004, ten new countries joined and registered as active members in the
European family. Romania took part at the Dublin solemnities only as a
guest, mentioned both with compassion and anxiety. The Romanian
people were not able to join the Polish, Humgarian or Slovenian voices,
and erase the perspective of the past fifty years of communism and
fourteeen years of transition.
Starting November 2003, on a monthly basis, the European
commissioners started to bring to Romania their worn out note books,
each time with no passing grade for our country. Are the Romanian
people missing something? Maybe exceding? Maybe the myth of the
Little Ewe is covering their eyes, preventing them to understand what is
going on around them and thus protect themselves, or maybe Manole,
their other favourite myth thought them how the personal vanity is above
the community’s interest, or, maybe, as the European commissioners
frequently highlight, the corruption is indeed a problem.
2. Red flags
As economic indicators show, Romania could eventually get a
passing grade, if it was not for the noisy stop made by the Justice
mechanism, which, unorganised, unreformed, submissive and dependent
as it is, could not have been accepted in Europe, just like the leper is cast
away by the healthy community. The numerous and poorly emitted laws,
changing overnight based on political sponsorship interest, the
institutions unable to fully apply them or forced to interpret them

An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 167–172
170
Valeriu Dornescu
according to alien incentives and the bureaucracy created over time a
framework hard to digest for the foreign investors.
In EU, the performance of the market economy is closely tied
with the business environement, based on three functional imperatives:
competitivity, quality, efficiency. In Romania, around 120,000 office
workers and officials make sure that it takes up to four months and 90
authorisations before someone can start a business. This unnecessary
effort on the Romanian side is equivalent on the European level to a
minimum exertion of a couple of hours.
3. From past to present
In addition to this, Romania is the country where people work the
least, as compared to the other EU candidates. While other states have
adjusted their strategy regarding the weekly working hours, concomitant
with additional reform measures, in Romania, the average working hours
per week is 38,6. In Latvia, the average working hours is 42,7 and the
GDP per capita (Gross domestic product) is 5,440 Euro, in Czech
Republic the average working hours per week is 41,5 and the GDP per
capita equalls to 6,200 Euro, while in Poland the average working hours
per week is 40,5 with a GDP per capita amounting to 3,800 de Euro. In
Romania, on the other hand, the GDP per capita, correlated with the
average working hours and labour productivity equals 1,970 Euro.
Romania does however hold a high rank with regards to loisir and the
average time spent in front of the TV, which is two times higher than in
EU.
Besides the incapacity of creating a functional environement for
the market, the corruption seems a much more critical issue. Of course,
corruption is universal. The famous “Auri sacra fames” expressed by
Virgil in Aeneid will always remain a truthful remark. Romania is
definetly not responsible for inventing the corruption, but fails severely
in keeping it under control. A brief look back in time shows that
throughout the history, the Romanian people had always been haunted by
disturbing episodes of corruption. For example, in 1591, Iacob Eraclidul
convinces princess Ruxandra to chase her husband, king Alexandru
Lăpuşneanu, nephew of Ştefan the Greatest, away from the throne. After
only two years, the local aristocrats and landowners return the power to
The “endemic” corruption
171
Stefan Tomşa. When he is about to send to Istanbul the tribute for the
throne, Alexandru returns with an army from Ţarigrad and the approval
of the Otoman Empire. Ştefan Tomşa runs to Istambul with a blinding
pray. Two years after, another challenger for the throne, Ioan Vodă cel
Cumplit, raises the pot and holds the political and financial ropes for two
years. Meanwhile, the Otomans greately appreciate the efforts of Petru
Şchiopul, and he becomes the next holder of the throne. Shortly after,
another challenger, Aron cel Rău raised the pot to no less than one
million ducats. Lucky enough for being chased by various creditors, such
as the British ambassador in Istambul, he remains in office for more than
the original one year agreement, for being able to pay his debts. For more
than a century, Moldavia has 41 rulers that successively raise the taxes
and fees of the population for raising the money and pay the throne.
Between 1711 and 1822, Moldavia is ruled by the Phanariots,
using even more expensive strategies in bidding the throne. Both
Moldavia and Ţara Românească were abused by these more and more
expensive auctions. Comte d’Hauterive, visiting the regions in 1785,
notes: “The faces of the city dwellers seemed … barbarian, … their
uniforms ragged, their houses veritable pigsties, their priests avaricious
and miserly … The people filling the streets bow their heads in the mud
as soon as they recognize a fur coat or horse furniture” [1; p.413-414]. It
is interesting to note within this context that for 350 years, between
Ştefan the Greatest and Cuza, Moldavia had 115 rulers, with an average
of 2,7 years of reign. In the same period of time, Ţara Românească had
95 rulers. If the average tribute for the throne was around one million
ducats, it follows that around 2 billions ducats have been spent with this
practice. France, during the same period had 19 leaders, Great Britain 17,
Holland 10 , Danemark 14 and Poland 20.
The modern form of corruption, which started after 1989, seems
to be even more evil, because it does not fully represent only the
prerogative of the leadership. It starts from the top, and next, in a topdown fashion, it attacks all the sectors of society. The corruption is
translated into practice by a couple of acts falling under the Penal Code
jurisdiction (bribery of any kind, trafic of influence and so on). It can
manifest in a both general and small scale fashion. The first category
involves politicians and bureaucrats abusing their social status for long
172
Valeriu Dornescu
term privileges, while the second one involves small-scale corruption,
insidious, based on the principle that “everyone is doing it”.
If generalized, the corruption usually leads to terror regimes
ironically based on fighting it, the degradation of human relations, the
induced poverty by lack of trust in labour. Small scale corruption has
destructive results on the individual level, generating self-devouring
behaviour, and inducing resigned and fatalist mentality. The society falls
into decay to the point where the lack of moral values becomes as
conspicuous as the lack of finacial resources. The resemnation and
despair is highlighted within the Romanian context by the results of a
recent poll, showing that while 86% of Romanian do not trust State’s
institutions, while more than 50% consider that the State apparatus could
not function without bribery. Other studies show that the most corrupted
is the medical sector, 67%, followed by police authorities, 30,9%,
administrative authorities, 27,2% and the education sector with 26%.
Since the first victim of corruption is the development of the society
itself, the Reports made by The European Commission show that
Romania is perceived as a potential threat on the European level.
4. Conclusions
However, the reports or normative acts recording the high level of
corruption are not enough to eradicate the phenomena of economic
infractionality. For instance, between 2000 and 2003, the underground
economy was around 22,7% from GDP, less generous than in 1998 when
it reached 40%! A raport released in 2004 by The Court of Accounts
showed the infractionalities proved by 2,800 controls, had generated
losses amounting to 3,951 billion Lei. The biggests frauds were made by
public institutions (over 1,8 billion) or state administration companies
(1,675 billion).
The European Court of Accounts (CCE) showed that there was
trouble also with regards to the use of European funds. A brief analysis
on how did Romania spent the European money between 2000 and 2004
highlighted that more than 50% were used in other purposes, conflicting
the original agreements, while other various projects showed profound
managerial incapacities on behalf of the Romanian side. The penalties
imposed by the Romanian authorities did not change the overall image,
The “endemic” corruption
173
but increased the general impression that this “disease” is virtually
unstoppable.
We argue that the new attempts in improving the legal framework
for punishing the individuals obtaining illicit revenues will not be able to
make a change. The new principle of taxing 90% of these kind of
revenues is equivalent to making the corruption a legitimate and legal
business. Moreover, the incoming measures create a false image on what
is commonly understood by ”illicit revenues”. The tangible goods, such
as terrains or domains, households or automobiles, should also be
accompanied by intagible actives, such as money spent abroad
(excursions, holidays, children education, medical treatments, cosmetics
and so on), or in bank accounts. The corruption should also be
conceptually revised. If in Romania was defined, before 1989, as a “state
of digression from morality, and duty, the West had a more solid
definition, stating that the corruption is “a crime of the employee who
opperates clandestinely and illicitly or uses his influence of obtaining
various advantages. After all, from digression to crime is a long distance!
The generalized corruption and the development of underground
economy have been patronized by the deficiencies of the judicial system,
which still creates room of manoeuvre for eluding the law. We consider
that improving the existent legal framework is indispensable, and should
meet a few essential conditions: the coming framework should be stable
enough in order to avoid interpretations and subjective approaches,
should not be discriminatory, and the new structures should seek
impartiality.
The eradication and control of corruption also needs to reconsider
the motivation of the administrative personnel, by correlating their
salaries with the importance of their work and their level of
responsibility.
We also consider that fiscal policies should be reconsidered: the
State should use fiscality as a collective and punishing instrument, within
a framework capable of converging individual interest with the general
trend of economy. All these measures could lead in the future to
diminishing the
corruption phenomena and its local “endemic” features.
174
Valeriu Dornescu
References
1. Bogdan, N.A., Oraşul Iaşi, Editura Tehnopress, Iaşi, 1997.
2. Hoanţă, N., Evaziunea fiscală, Editura Tribuna Economică,
Bucharest, 1997.
3. Popa, M., Matei, H., Mică enciclopedie de istorie universală, Editura
Politică, Bucharest, 1988.
4. Costin, M., Letopiseţul Tărâi Moldovei, Editura Minerva, Bucharest,
1975 .
5. ***, The Statistics Annuary of Romania, INSSE, Bucharest, 2004.
6. ***, European Commission Report for Romania, 2005.
7. ***, Romanian Court of Accounts Report, 2004.
8. ***, Nouveau Petit Larousse, Librairie Larousse, Paris, 1968.
IONEL-CIPRIAN ALECU
REMARKS ON THE MODELLING OF ECONOMIC
UNCERTAINTY BY USING FUZZY INTERVALS
1. Introduction
In economic research uncertainty has stopped being approached
in a traditional way by means of probabilities. The probabilistic models
have certain limitations. As a result, fuzzy numbers are increasingly used
to base decisions on, as an instrument which primarily absorbs
informational uncertainty.
Several approaches have emerged in this area. In this article we
aim to compare a system regarded as classical in the arithmetic of fuzzy
numbers and a new trend proposed by O. Gherasim.
2. Modelling economic uncertainty by using classic intervals
According to Moore1 one can define as a fuzzy number interval
an ordered set of real numbers x, which meet the following condition:
axb
or
I  a; b  x a  x  b
There are two intervals number I a  I b where : I a  a1 ; a 2  şi
I b  b1 ; b 2 , a1 , a 2 , b1 , b 2  R
Classical theory has defined the following elementary operations
using intervals2: addition (+), subtraction (-), multiplication (*), division
(/). They are summarised in the table below, which provides a numerical
example for each operation:
1
2
Apud [1, pg 52]
Apud [1] si [2, pg 47;76]
An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 173–182
176
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
Table 1a.
Intervals
Operation
Symbol
()
I c  [c1 ; c 2 ]; I a  a 1 ; a 2  ;
I b  b1 ; b 2 
Ic  Ia  Ib
1
Addition
2 Substraction
(+)
I c  I a ()I b where
(-)
I c  I a ()I b where
(*)
c2  a 2  b2
 [5;10];
c1  a 1  b 2
I c  [2  6;4  3]
c 2  a 2  b1
 [4;1];
c1  min( a 1b1 ; a 1b 2 ; a 2 b1 ; a 2 b 2 )
I c  I a (/) I b where
Division
(/)
I c  [2;4]  [3;6]
I c  [2  3;4  6]
c 2  max( a 1b1 ; a 1b 2 ; a 2 b1 ; a 2 b 2 )
4
I a  2;4 ; I b  3;6
c1  a 1  b 1
I c  I a (*)I b where
3 Multiplication
Example
c1 min( a1 / b 2 ; a1 / b1; a 2 / b 2 ; a 2 / b1)
c1 min( 2  3;2  6;4  3;4  6)
c 2  max( 2  3;2  6;4  3;4  6)
I c  [6;36];
c1 min( 2 / 6;2 / 3;4 / 6;4 / 3)
c 2  max( 2 / 6;2 / 3;4 / 6;4 / 3)
c 2  max( a1 / b 2 ; a1 / b1; a 2 / b 2 ; a 2 / b1)
I c  [2 / 6;4 / 3]
0 [b1 ; b 2 ]
 [0.(3);1.(3)];
Achieving the process of optimisation requires the definition of a
classification mode of intervals which should allow their ordering
according to a given criterion. Classical theory of fuzzy numbers has not
defined a single way of comparing intervals3:
 The comparison to a „supremum”( I s  [s1 ; s 2 ] ) or an „infimum”
I i  [i1 ; i 2 ] of analysed intervals
 The comparison to an „ideal interval” ( I e  [e1 ; e 2 ] ) different from
previously defined intervals.
An indicator that should express the difference between intervals
is thus used, being possible to employ any of the specific notions,
ranging from the Euclidian distance to the Minkowski distance. Our
example will resort to the ‘Hamming relative distance’ between intervals:
3
Apud [2, pg 76]
Remarks on the modelling of economic uncertainty by using fuzzy intervals
I a ; I b  
177
a 1  b1  a 2  b 2
2
Table 1b.
Comparison
interval
Interval
I s  [s1 ; s 2 ] is „supremum” for
all „n” analized intervals, where
1 „Supremum”
s1  max( a1 , b1 , c1...., n1 )
s 2  max( a 2 , b 2 , c 2 ...., n 2 )
I i  [i1 ; i 2 ] is „supremum” for
all „n” analized intervals, where
2 „Infimum”
i1  min( a1 , b1 , c1...., n1 )
i 2  max( a 2 , b 2 , c 2 ...., n 2 )
3
„Ideal”
I e  [e1 ; e 2 ] where
I e  I s or I e  I i
‘Hamming relative distance’
 k   k I k ; I s  
where
k 1  i1  k 2  i 2
2
k, j  a, b, c....n
 k   k I k ; I e  
where
2
k  a, b, c....n
 k   k I k ; I i  
where
k1  s1  k 2  s 2
k1  e1  k 2  e 2
2
k  a, b, c....n
The (main) ordering criterion is similar in all the cases and is
defined according to the way of ordering the solutions, either ascending
or descending:
k   j  Ik  I j
Descending
where
k, j  a, b, c....n
We can generalize:
min  k  will be determinet ed by optim max I k 
k   j  Ik  I j
Ascending
where
k, j  a, b, c....n
And minim interval by
max  k  will be determinet ed by optim min I k 
178
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
For cases when the distances are equal (  k   j , k  j ) to achieve
the differentiation between intervals an additional criterion has been
defined, in accordance with their degree of uncertainty, i. e. the
amplitude of the interval:
k   j, k  j
then
k 2  k 1  j2  j1 


optim max( or min) I k ; I j  I k
regardless of the ascending or descending optimisation criterion.
One can notice the time-consuming method of defining the
multiplication and division operations in this classical format. Yet the
most difficult process is that of comparing intervals according to a
specific criterion. For this reason, a simplification of calculations was
necessary, one direction being suggested by Gherasim, which we will
briefly outline in the following chapter.
3. New directions in modelling uncertainty by means
of intervals
The difficulties in formalising and quantifying information, the
lack of precision in medium and short-term predictions have led to
numerous attempts to develop the theory of fuzzy numbers. One such
example is Gherasim’s effort to establish the ‘Mathematics of triangular
fuzzy numbers’.
In order to operate with fuzzy numbers in a much easier way the
author has proposed that certain indicators be used: middle of the
interval, sign, global indicator, etc.
In the case of intervals ( I a  [a 1 , a 2 ] ) they take the following
form:
a  a2
 Middle of intervals (centre of mass - G): I a  G a  1
2
 Sign of the interval: sign (G a )  sign (a1  a 2 )
Starting from the author’s proposals on intervals4, we generalise
the following elementary interval operations in the table below:
4
Apud [3, pg 60]
Remarks on the modelling of economic uncertainty by using fuzzy intervals
179
Table 2
Operaţia
Symbol
()
Intervals
I c  [c1 ; c 2 ];
I a  a 1 ; a 2  ; I b  b1 ; b 2 
Ic  Ia  Ib
(+)
b  b2
a1  a 2
; Ib  1
2
2
c1  a 1  b 1
I c  I a ()I b where
c2  a 2  b2
(-)
I c  I a ()I b where
Ia 
1
Addition
2 Substraction
I c  I a (*)I b 
3 Multiplication
(*)
c1 
c1 
4
Division
I c  [2  6;4  3]
c 2  a 2  b1
 [4;1];
Ia Ib  Ia Ib
2
then
2
a 2 Ib  Ia b2
I c  I a (/) I b 
2
Ia Ib  Ia Ib
2 Ib
2
a 1 I b  I a b1
c2 
a 2 Ib  Ia b2
2 Ib
if
Ib
2
2 * 4 .5  3 * 3
2
4 * 4 .5  3 * 6
c2 
2
I c  [9;18];
c1 
then
c1 
2 * 4.5  3 * 3
2
2 Ib
(/)
I a  3 ; I b  4,5
I c  [2  3;4  6]
 [5;10];
c1  a 1  b 2
a 1 I b  I a b1
c2 
Exemple
I a  2;4 ; I b  3;6
I c  [2;4]  [3;6]
2
c2 
2 * 4.5 2
4 * 4.5  3 * 6
2 * 4.5 2
I c  [0.(4);0.(8)];
0
As expected, the results for the addition and subtraction
operations are identical due to the similar definition mode. This will not
be case for the composition by means of multiplication or division
operations (see Table 1a and Table 2a). One notices that the intervals
obtained using the latter method have a smaller degree of uncertainty
(shorter interval length).
The ordering criterion is based on the comparison of the intervals’
centres of mass:
180
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
Descending
Ik  I j  Ik  I j
where
k, j  a , b, c....n
We can generalize:
max  I k  wil be deterninet ed by optim max I k 
Ascending
Ik  I j  Ik  I j
where
k, j  a , b, c....n
And minim interval by
min  I k  will be determinet ed by optim min I k 
For cases when the centres are equal ( I k  I j , k  j ), to
achieve the differentiation of intervals an additional criterion has been
defined, in accordance with the amplitude and sign of the interval:
I k  I j , k  j  (k 2  k1 )sign (k1  k 2 )  ( j2  j1 )sign ( j1  j2 )
 Ik  I j
One can notice that the intervals with higher degrees of
uncertainty (amplitude) are preferred.
Summarising the concordance level between the operations
proposed by the two methods, and also the ease of data processing using
the latter method, the following table is obtained:
Table 3.
Table of operation correspondence
Nr.
crt.
1
2
3
4
5
Operation
Addition
Substraction
Multiplication
Division
Ordering criterion
Symbol
()
(+)
(-)
(*)
(/)
(<;>)
Teoretical
concordance
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Rezults
concordance
Yes
Yes
Aleator
Aleator
Aleator
Simplicity of
operations
Identical
Identical
Easyest
Easyest
Easyest
Note: In declaring a mode of defining operations as more simple one took into
consideration the number of required operations (similar to the method of analysis of
decision processes in artificial intelligence), the ‘proximity’ to the real system and the
limited number of restrictive conditions.
In the next chapter we intend to apply the Hurwicz optimality
criterion to a hypothetical example by means of the two ways of defining
the arithmetic of intervals. Hence we will attempt to highlight the
advantages and disadvantages of their use in founding decisions.
Remarks on the modelling of economic uncertainty by using fuzzy intervals
181
4. Comparative numerical example
The following hypothetical example is considered: to implement
a strategic objective 3 investment projects were proposed, characterised
by 4 efficiency indicators. Following the analysis and evaluation of
consequences by means of certain intervals the following decision matrix
was obtained:
Table 5.
Matrix of consequences
Vi/Cj
C1
C2
C3
C4
[2,6]
[3,6]
[4,5]
[3,4]
V1
[3,7]
[2,4]
[5,6]
[4,6]
V2
[2,6]
[5,7]
[3,4]
[2,5]
V3
We intend to cover the following stages using both methods:
~
 We will obtain maximum value (max (R ij )) for each line
j
~
 We will obtain minim value (min (R ij )) for each line
j

~
~ 
 We will calculate intervals for an ,   * max (R ij )  (1  ) * min ( R ij ) 
j
j


 We will identify the decisional optimum
In the case of the classical method, to calculate the maximum and
the minimum intervals it is necessary to choose a comparison interval
(supremum, infimum or ideal). To halve the number of operations and
ensure greater comparability between the solutions produced by the two
methods we will chose an ‘ideal’ interval, an interval central to the
minimum and maximum values on the line (the second method uses the
middle of the interval). Thus we will choose as ideal the following
intervals [3, 5], [4, 5] and [3,5] respectively.
We will obtain a matrix of the relative distances which will be
used to determine the minimum and maximum on the line. The
operations are summarised in the table below:
Table 6.
Matrix of the relative distances **
Vi/Cj
min
C1
C2
C3
C4
max
V1
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
[4,5]
[2,6]
Main
V2
1
0.5
[4,6]
[2,4]
1.5
1.5
criterion l
V3
1
2
0.5
0.5
[3,4]
[5,7]
V1
4
3
1
1
Additional
V
2
1
2
4
2
criterion
V3
4
2
1
3
182
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
As can be seen, it was necessary to use the additional
classification criterion in order to choose the maximum or the minimum.
For example, this was necessary for the second line to choose the
minimum or the third one to obtain the maximum. A special case is seen
on the first line where, upon the use of the additional criterion, it was not
possible to obtain a single maximum, so that we had to choose between
intervals [4,5] and [3,5], as they had the same amplitude. We opted for
the former ([4,5]) as it was a maximum criterion.
To select the maximum on the column we choose [3, 5] as ideal
interval for comparison because it was the most frequently used in the
previous stages.
Note. The ideal interval could have been any other. However,
defining an optimum at this moment is an operation difficult to support
logically.
Table 7
Optimum selection*


Vi max min
Distanţe relative
  * max  (1  ) * min 


6  5  11  11
[6 α-2, 11 α-6]
V1 [4,5] [2,6]
2
6  5  10  9
[6 α-2, 10 α-4]
V2 [4,6] [2,4]
2
8  8  11  12
[8 α-5, 11 α-7]
V3 [3,4] [5,7]
2
One can notice that we must solve a system of inequalities to
identify the decisional optimum, depending on the values of α[0;1]
Following calculations the following is obtained:
 for α[0;20/21] the hierarchy is V3< V1 < V2
 for α=20/21 the hierarchy is V3< V1  V2, yet the uncertainty of
option V2 is higher, therefore, according to the additional criterion,
the option will be V3<V2<V1
 for α(20/21; 34/35) the hierarchy is V3< V2 < V1
 for α=34/35 the hierarchy is V3 V2 < V1, yet the uncertainty of
option V2 is higher, therefore, according to the additional criterion,
the option will be V2<V3<V1
 for α[34/35; 1] the hierarchy is V2< V3 < V1
Using the methodology proposed by Gherasim, the matrix of
decisional consequences and the first stages are as follows:
Remarks on the modelling of economic uncertainty by using fuzzy intervals
183
Table 8.
Matrix of decisional consequences **
Vi/Cj
C1
C2
C3
C4
V1
4
4.5
4.5
3.5
Main
V2
5
3
5.5
5
criterion l
V3
4
6
3.5
3.5
V1
4
3
1
1
Additional
V
2
4
2
1
2
criterion
V3
4
2
1
3
max
[3,6]
[5,6]
[5,7]
min
[3,4]
[2,4]
[2,5]
One observes for certain cases the need to apply both ordering
criteria in order to obtain the maximum and the minimum on the line (see
lines 1 and 3). Also, these criteria are sufficient to achieve a hierarchy of
the intervals.
The last two stages are summarised in the table below:
Table 9.
Optimum selection***


Relative
  * max  (1  ) * min 
Vi max min
distances


V1
[3,6] [3,4]
[6 α-3; 10 α -4]
V2
[5,6] [2,4]
[7 α- 2, 10 α-4]
V3
[5,7] [2,5]
[7α-2, 12 α-5]
16  7
2
17  6
2
19  7
2
One can notice that the difficulty in comparing intervals in the
columns decreases both in terms of the type of inequalities (simple
inequalities as opposed to modules) and in terms of their number. This
explains the fewer number of cases analysed and operations used.
Following the solving of the system, the following hierarchies are
observed, according to the value of α :
 for α=0 the hierarchy is V1  V3 <V2, yet the uncertainty of option V1
is higher, therefore, according to the additional criterion, the option
will be V3<V1<V2
 for α(0; 1/2) the hierarchy is V1<V3<V2
 for α=1/2 the hierarchy is V1< V3 V2, yet the uncertainty of option
V2 is higher, therefore, according to the additional criterion, the
option will be V1<V3<V2
 for α(1/2, 1] the hierarchy is V1<V2<V3
184
Ionel-Ciprian Alecu
By analysing the concordance of optimal options from that two
methods, according to the variations of α, we obtain the table below:
Table 10.
Vi
V1
V2
V3
α(0; ½)
Concordance analyze
Α(1/2; 20/21)
α(20/21;34/35)
Clasical methodology
Both methodology
Clasical methodology
Gherasim methodology
Gherasim methodology
5. Conclusions
The directions of manifestation and development increasingly
require that decisions are made in uncertain conditions, which entails the
use of methods that respond to the difficulties in estimating information.
It is obvious that between the two methods there are clear
differences in terms of ease of calculations and mode of implementation.
The ease of the elementary operations perfomed means that less time is
consumed and the accuracy of the classification of decision alternatives
is higher.
The new trends imposed by the mathematics of fuzzy numbers
help to facilitate the work of managers under uncertain circumstances, on
the one hand, and to eliminate deep-seated reservations about the use of
the method in analysing phenomena, on the other.
References
1. Hans Schjaer-Jacobsen , Modeling Economic Uncertainty, Fuzzy
Economic Review Volum IX, Nr.2, November 2004
2. Ana Maria Gil Lafuente, Analiza financiară in conditii de
incertitudine, Editura AIT Laboratoires, Bucuresti, 1994
3. Ovidiu Gherasim, Matematica numerelor fuzzy triunghiulare, Editura
Performantica, Iasi 2005
4. Arold Kaufmann, Jaime Gil Aluja, Tehnici speciale pentru gestiunea
prin experti, Editura Expert , 1995.
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
ALECSANDRU PUIU TACU – CREATOR DE ŞCOALĂ
Personalitate recunoscută a cercetării
ştiinţifice şi a mediului universitar
românesc, Alecsandru Puiu Tacu s-a
născut la data de 1 noiembrie 1933 pe
frumoasele meleaguri botoşănene, în
localitatea Corlăteni. A absolvit Liceul
teoretic „Grigore Ghica Voievod” şi
Şcoala
tehnică
de
administraţie
economică din Dorohoi, după care a
urmat cursurile Facultăţii de Ştiinţe
Economice
(astăzi
F.E.A.A.)
a
Universităţii „Al. I. Cuza” din Iaşi, secţia
Economia industriei.
După absolvire a ocupat postul de
asistent universitar la Institutul Politehnic
din Iaşi (1954-1957), instituţie pe care,
din motive independente de voinţa sa
(criterii politice), a fost obligat să o
părăsească. Dar această decizie abuzivă a
regimului comunist îl va conduce pe Al.
P. Tacu spre domeniul pentru care era
născut, cel al cercetării ştiinţifice. Astfel,
a fost unul dintre fondatorii Colectivului
de Cercetări Economice din cadrul
Academiei Române, Filiala Iaşi (1958) şi
a parcurs apoi treptele impuse de structura
acestei instituţii academice, devenind în
anul 1990 cercetător principal gradul I. În
anul 1974 a obţinut titlul de doctor în
economie. Fără a trăda o clipă cercetarea
ştiinţifică, Al. P. Tacu a ocupat din anul
1993, prin concurs, postul de profesor
universitar la Facultatea de Economie şi
Administrarea Afacerilor a Universităţii
„Al. I. Cuza” din Iaşi, fiind în acelaşi timp
şi directorul Institutului de Ştiinţe SocioUmane (1991-1995) şi al Institutului de
Cercetări Economice „Gheorghe Zane”

(1992-2002), ambele din cadrul Filialei
Iaşi a Academiei Române.
Economistul Al. P. Tacu a predat
cursuri de statistică aplicată: Statistică
macroeconomică,
Analiza
statistică,
Statistică regională, Statistică socială,
îmbogăţindu-şi permanent informaţia şi
puterea cunoaşterii, perfecţionându-şi
cursurile şi stilul de predare.
În dubla calitate, de profesor şi
cercetător, deosebit de atent şi minuţios în
demersul ştiinţific, Al. P Tacu a
desfăşurat o activitate plină de dăruire
pentru modelarea generaţiilor de tineri
economişti şi a îndrumat numeroşi
doctoranzi.
Convins de faptul că numai o abordare
prin metode şi tehnici oferite de
modelarea matematică a fenomenelor
economice poate conduce la rezultate
originale în cercetarea ştiinţifică, Al. P.
Tacu a folosit şi promovat, printre primii,
instrumente şi metode ale cercetării
operaţionale. O dovadă în acest sens poate
fi
considerată
colaborarea
cu
academicenii Octav Onicescu şi Adolf
Haimovici, extrem de importantă pentru
pionieratul
aplicării
metodelor
şi
tehnicilor cantitative în cercetarea
economică. Acest nou mod ştiinţific de
abordare este şi rezultatul specializării
post-universitare efectuate ca bursier
(1969-1970) în Franţa, la Societatea de
Economie şi Matematici Aplicate şi la
Centrul Francez de Cercetări Operaţionale
(ambele din Paris), precum şi la
Universitatea
din
Grenoble,
sub
îndrumarea reputatului om de ştiinţă prof.
univ. dr. Arnold Kaufmann.
An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 183–190
184
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
„...Ţinem să precizăm că domnul Tacu
a ştiut să fie un excelent ambasador al
ROMÂNIEI; Noi sperăm să-i fi oferit o la
fel de bună imagine a FRANŢEI cum a
ştiut el însuşi să o facă pentru ţara sa”.
Acestea sunt aprecierile pe care
economistul Al. P. Tacu le-a primit la
încheierea stagiului în Franţa.
După decembrie 1989, experienţa
acumulată de către Al. P. Tacu în cei
peste treizeci de ani de cercetare
ştiinţifică, de coordonare a zeci de teme şi
contracte, va permite afirmarea sa
multilaterală atât pe tărâm ştiinţific, cât şi
didactic, social şi economic. A fost cea
mai bogată perioadă din activitatea sa de
cercetare, materializată prin contribuţii
originale, de unic autor şi în colaborare,
aduse prin numeroase cărţi (28), articole
şi studii (peste 150), contracte şi proiecte
de cercetare ştiinţifică (peste 25) etc.
Domeniile principale în care se
regăsesc aceste contribuţii sunt: teoria
deciziilor în condiţii de incertitudine;
analiza statistică şi economică pe baza
sistemelor fuzzy şi a metodelor şi
tehnicilor de inteligenţă artificială; teoria
fenomenelor de aşteptare cu aplicare în
determinarea zonelor optime de deservire
a utilajelor; fundamentarea deciziilor
multicriteriale privind resursele umane.
Semnalăm câteva dintre cărţile elaborate
ca unic autor sau în colaborare, în care se
regăsesc o parte dintre rezultatele
cercetării
ştiinţifice:
Economia
întreprinderii; Fuzzy Systems and Expert
Systems in Decision-Making; Inteligenţa
artificială - Teorie şi aplicaţii în
economie; Dicţionar de marketing;
Europa economică interbelică; Fuzzy
Systems in Economy and Engineering etc.
Cercetător
ştiinţific
de
mare
anvergură, Al. P. Tacu a fost consultant
ştiinţific şi editor de cărţi străine, a
participat la numeroase congrese,
conferinţe şi simpozioane internaţionale,
fiind ales membru în comitete şi consilii
ştiinţifice, jurii etc. Semnalăm câteva
dintre
acestea:
Vicepreşedinte
al
International Association for Fuzzy-Set
Management and Economy, Reus, Spania
(1998), membru în comitetul ştiinţific al
„Fuzzy Economic Review” (1995);
membru al „Balkan Union for Fuzzy
Systems and A. I.” (1994); membru în
Comitetul
ştiinţific
specializat
de
susţinere a tezelor de doctorat la
Universitatea Liberă Internaţională din
Moldova (1998); membru fondator al
Comisiei de sisteme fuzzy şi inteligenţă
artificială din cadrul Academiei Române.
Împreună cu un grup restrâns de
cercetători, a pus bazele publicaţiei
institutului, Anuarul Institutului de
Cercetări Economice „Gheorghe Zane”,
care s-a făcut repede cunoscut în rândurile
comunităţii ştiinţifice din Iaşi, din ţară şi
din străinătate, ceea ce a făcut ca profesori
universitari de renume de la universităţi
de prestigiu din Spania, Franţa, Italia, R.
Moldova să publice aici şi să accepte să
facă parte din Colegiul ştiinţific al
acesteia.
O dată cu reînfiinţarea Asociaţiei
Generale a Economiştilor din România
(AGER) în anul 1990, Al. P. Tacu s-a
aflat în primele rânduri în procesul de
organizare, contribuind cu toată dăruirea
la înfiinţarea filialelor de la Iaşi, Suceava,
Botoşani, Vaslui, Neamţ, precum şi a
Asociaţiei Economiştilor din Republica
Moldova (AEM).
Filiala ieşeană, avându-l în prim plan
pe Al. P. Tacu în calitate de Preşedinte, sa dovedit un puternic centru polarizator
pentru cadre didactice şi cercetători din
domeniul economic şi pentru numeroşi
specialişti din activitatea practică prin
activităţile pe care le-a desfăşurat,
contribuind la realizarea primelor studii
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
de dezvoltare regională din ţara noastră
după 1989 (Dezvoltarea economicosocială
a
zonelor
deservite
de
aeroporturile Iaşi, Bacău, Suceava;
Dezvoltarea economico-socială orizont
2004 a judeţelor Iaşi, Vaslui, Botoşani
etc.).
„Se poate spune că Al. P. Tacu a fost o
personalitate complexă în domeniul său,
un vizionar în aplicaţiile de graniţă, un
organizator remarcabil în ştiinţă, un
manager ponderat şă înţelept pentru
oraşul Iaşi – pe care l-a slujit şapte ani în
calitate de consilier municipal şi
preşedinte al Comisiei buget, finanţe,
administrarea domeniului public şi privat.
Sunt convins că împlinirea ştiinţifică şi
sufletească a multora poartă parţial şi
pecetea personalităţii economistului Al. P.
Tacu”, aprecia prof. univ. dr. Horia-
185
Nicolai
Teodorescu,
Membru
corespondent al Academei Române.
Ca o recunoaştere a acestor contribuţii
ştiinţifice, Al. P. Tacu a primit numeroase
premii, titluri şi distincţii naţionale şi
internaţionale: premiul „Victor Slăvescu”
al Academiei Române (1997); „Premio
Germain Pirlot” acordat de Academia
Internazionale delle Scienze (A.I.S.), San
Marino; titlul de Doctor Honoris Causa al
Universităţii „Ştefan cel Mare” din
Suceava (2003); medalia „TRADITAINNOVARE- INNOVATA- TRADERE”
din partea Universitas - Regia Gothoburgensis (1995) ş.a.
Teodor Păduraru
Mihai Haivas
CENTENAR
NICHOLAS GEORGESCU-ROEGEN (1906-1994)
Orice popor din această lume se
mândreşte cu fiii săi cei mai valoroşi, cu
cei care s-au remarcat în diferite domenii
ale ştiinţei şi culturii şi care au dus peste
hotare, prin activitatea, talentul şi
trăsăturile de caracter cele mai adecvate,
faima
şi recunoaşterea respectivei
naţiuni.
Aşa şi noi românii, ne evidenţiem, cu
mijloacele de care dispunem, deşi ar
trebui să o facem cu mai multă putere, pe
cei ce s-au remarcat, de-alungul
veacurilor, atât pe plan naţional, dar şi
internaţional, făcându-ne cunoscuţi şi
respectaţi în întreaga lume.
Şi dacă resortul ştiinţelor exacte este
foarte
bine reprezentat cu mari
personalităţi în domeniu, cel al ştiinţelor
economice este ceva mai sărac, lucru
datorat în primul rând perioadei edificării
societăţii socialiste. Perioada marcată de
existenţa economiei de comandă ,
puternic centralizată şi birocratizată şi
care nu a permis, decât în mică măsură,
afirmarea cercetărilor de valoare în acest
domeniu. De aceea, cei ce au dorit să aibă
un cuvânt de spus au trebuit să aleagă
calea emigrării în statele în care exista o
adevărată economie de piaţă şi, mai
precis, în cea mai puternică economie a
lumii postbelice, cea a S.U.A.
Acesta este şi cazul pe care dorim să-l
analizăm în cele ce urmează. Este vorba
de profesorul american de origine română
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen şi de la a
cărui naştere se împlineşte anul acesta un
186
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
secol. Pe numele său adevărat, Nicolae
Georgescu, acesta este originar de pe
malul mării, din Constanţa. Aşa cum
avea să scrie în Cuvântul înainte la ediţia
în limba română a celei mai cunoscute
lucrări ale sale1, întreaga sa formare şi
desăvârşire de intelectual rasat s-au
datorat, atât familiei, cât şi şcolii
româneşti, din primele decenii ale
secolului trecut ,,Dragostea mea faţă de
neamul românesc are râdăcini adînci în
ceea ce sînt şi voi fi mereu. Ochii minţii
mi-au fost deschişi în România, întîi de
părinţii mei, apoi de învăţătorii din
clasele primare. Mai tîrziu, profesorii din
liceu şi de la universitate m-au învăţat
treptat, cu dragoste şi cu devotament, să
priversc lucrurile mai de aproape şi să-mi
organizez sistematic ideile despre ele.
Numai pentru că am fost astfel pregătit
să fiu student, am putut studia mai
departe în centre culturale ale lumii
întregi şi cu specialişti ce mi-au format
orientarea intelectuală care astăzi este a
mea proprie ( s.m.)” .
A urmat cursurile Liceului militar de
la Mânăstirea Dealu, unde s-a remarcat
prin înclinaţia deosebită spre ştiinţele
exacte, mai precis matematică, fiind unul
dintre cei mai statornici şi merituoşi
corespondenţi ai prestigioasei reviste de
specialitate Gazeta Matematică. Calităţile
de matematician înnăscut i-au fost
recunoscute de către savantul Gh. Ţiţeica
la concursul Gazetei Matematice din anul
1923 şi când tânărul Nicolae Georgescu a
ieşit primul pe ţară. Importanţa perioadei
cât a activat la această instituţie de
învăţământ a fost subliniată mult mai
târziu de către autor, prin considerarea
faptului că 75 % din cunoştinţele active
Georgescu-Roegen, N. –Legea entropiei şi
procesul economic, Ed. Politică, Bucureşti, 1979.
1
ale sale s-au cimentat din respectiva
epocă2
Tot vorbind de fructuoasa colaborare
la această revistă, mai trebuie amintit încă
un lucru deosebit pentru viitoarea sa
evoluţie. Pentru a nu se face confuzii
referitoare la numele său, Nicolae
Georgescu
şi-a
adăugat
sufixul
,,Roegen”
care, de fapt, nu este altceva
decât anagramarea începutului numelui
său, adică N. Geor..
A urmat apoi studii de matematică la
Universitatea din Bucureşti, pe care le-a
absolvit în anul 1926 şi unde a avut
eminenţi dascăli şi deschizători de
drumuri în ale matematicii româneşti,
precum Octav Onicescu, Gh. Ţiţeica,
Traian Lalescu, ş.a. Dar, unde a fost coleg
şi cu alţi viitori matematicieni de valoare
ai ţării, amintindu-i doar pe Grigore C.
Moisil şi Gabriela Ţiţeica.
Pregătirea şi perfecţionarea nu s-au
oprit aici, Nicolae Georgescu susţinânduşi teza de doctorat în statistică, la Paris, în
anul 1930, în faţa unei comisii prezidate
de G. Darmois. După care, a mai urmat şi
cursuri postdoctorale la Universitatea din
Londra cu celebrulstatistician Karl
Pearson.
Am insistat asupra devenirii sale
profesionale pentru a vedea că tocmai
aceste studii de matematică şi statistică au
fost cele care l-au ajutat pe cercetătorul
român să descifreze, de o manieră
revoluţionară poate, domeniul economic.
De fapt, şi astăzi cunoştinţele de
matematică şi statistică sunt foarte
apreciate în universităţile occidentale
atunci când se vorbeşte de o analiză cât
mai exactă şi pertinentă a fenomenelor şi
proceselor ce se desfăşoară în viaţa
economică.
Georgescu-Roegen, N. –Omul şi opera, Ed. Expert,
Bucureşti, 1996, pg. 29.
2
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
Revenind la Nicolae Georgescu, să
mai spunem, pentru perioada cât a mai
activat în ţară, că s-a implicat activ şi în
viaţa politică, fiind în anul 1944,
secretarul general al Comisiei de mediere
a armistiţiului şi în cadrul căreia a reuşit
să apropie punctele de vedere ale părţii
române cu cele ale forţelor aliate. Dar,
ţinând cont de noua turnură din estul
Europei şi, deci şi din România
postbelică, ca şi de trecutul său în
favoarea
susţinătorilor
democraţiei,
Nicolae Georgescu a ales să emigreze,
împreună cu soţia sa, în Statele Unite ale
Americii.
Aici va continua şi îşi va deăvârşi
cariera universitară la Universitatea
Vanderbilt din Nashville, Tennessee, la
care a activat, cu mici întreruperi, până la
pensionare. Acest eveniment, ce a avut
loc în anul 1976, a avut o desfăşurare mai
aparte în lumea academică internaţională.
Acest lucru datorită faptului că, nu mai
puţin de şapte mari economişti ai lumii,
dintre care patru laureaţi ai Premiului
Nobel pentru economie :P.A. Samuelson,
Jan Tinbergen, John Hicks, Simon S.
Kuznets, au luat parte la un colocviu
ştiinţific, organizat de Universitatea
Vanderbilt în onoarea profesorului român,
tocmai ca apreciere pentru îndelungata şi
prestigioasa activitate depusă pe tărâm
ştiinţific şi didactic. Comunicările
susţinute cu acel prilej au fost
înmănunchiate în volumul omagial
intitulat Evolution, Welfare and Time in
Economics-Essays in Honor of Nicholas
Georgescu-Roegen.
Nu putem şi faptul că, la invitaţia
Academiei Române, profesorul N.
Georgescu-Roegen a vizitat de mai multe
ori ţara natală, chiar înainte de momentul
1989, prelegerile şi conferinţele susţinute
cu aceste ocazii fiind urmărite cu deosebit
interes de toţi cei doritori să înveţe cât
187
mai mult despre economie, dar şi din
erudiţia unui adevărat savant.
Gândirea savantului N. GeorgescuRoegen îşi are cele mai semnificative
rădăcini în ideile şi concepţiile enunţate
de un alt mare gânditor al veacului trecut,
austriacul Joseph Alois Schumpeter
(1883-1950). Însuşi afirma că se
consideră
unicul
economist
schumpeterian 3 (subl. ns.) şi că ,,unicul
titlu universitar îl are de la Universitas
Schumpeteriana” . Aprecierea a fost însă
şi reciprocă, de vreme ce profesorul
Schumpeter i-a propus mai tânărului său
discipol să rămână, încă din 1936, la
Universitatea Harvard, unde urmau să
redacteze un tratat de analiză economică.
Ideea de la care va pleca N.
Georgescu-Roegen în elaborarea teoriei
sale este cea susţinută de Schumpeter
privitoare la ireversibilitatea procesului
economic, pornind de la convingerea că
antreprenorul ,,inovator”
este cel ce
introduce sau trebuie să introducă
modelul
unei adevărate
economii
sănătoase, caracterizată prin dezechilibru
dinamic, evoluţia economică, ca şi cea
biologică, având un caracter de
ireversibilitate.
Trecând acum, la sublinierea cât mai
comprehensibilă şi în cât mai puţine
,,tuşe”
a vastei opere a profesorului
american de origine român, să ne oprim
asupra celei mai importante realizări ale
sale : teoria bioeconomică, aşa după cum
este cunoscută aceasta
în întreaga
literatură de specialitate.
După cum însuşi autorul acesteia
recunoştea, cu ocazia unei conferinţe
ţinute la celebra Universitate Yale în anul
1972, a adoptat termenul de bioeconomie,
3
Georgescu-Roegen, N.-op. cit., pg 77.
188
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
ce îi fusese sugerat de filosoful ceh Jiři
Zeman şi care se plia cel mai bine pe ceea
ce încerca să descrie. Cu toate că acest
termen nu era original, el fiind folosit cu
peste cinci decenii înaintea evenimentului
amintit, de către biologul rus T.I.
Baranov, iar în România, de către
savantul Grigore Antipa, în viziunea lui
N. Georgescu-Roegen acest concept avea
o semnificaţie diametral opusă celei
susţinute de biologii amintiţi, anume că
procesul economic, sub toate aspectele
lui, trebuie interpretat din punct de
vedere biologic.
Teoria bioeconomică s-a dorit a fi un
mod mai deosebit, revoluţionar să-i
zicem, de a privi şi înţelege economia,
dar şi de schimbare a paradigmei existente
la acea vreme în gândirea economică
Acest lucru deoarece N. GeorgescuRoegen, la începutul anilor '60, a încercat
să reunească în aceeaşi viziune ideatică,
economia şi ecologia, domenii ce păreau
ca acţionând de pe poziţii ireconciliabile,
dar care,
sub ,,bagheta magică” , de
ordin matematic şi fizic a profesorului de
origine română, au fost reunite cu efecte
pozitive, atât pentru dezvoltarea ulterioară
a gândirii economice, cât şi pentru viaţa
locuitorilor Terrei.
Ideile sale novatoare în acest sens sunt
cuprinse în opera sa de căpătâi şi anume
The Entropy Law and the Economic
Process, apărută în anul 1971 la
prestigioasa editură Harvard University
Press şi care a fost tradusă şi în limba
română4. Nu putem omite şi materialul
prezentat în cadrul Conferinţei organizate
în 1972 de către Universitatea Yale şi
Georgescu-Roegen, N. –Legea entropiei şi
procesul economic, prima apariţie în Ed. Politică,
Bucureşti, 1979, cea de a doua, în Ed. Expert,
Bucureşti, 1996.
4
reunit în volumul Energy and Economic
Myths.
Profesorul
Nicholas
GeorgescuRoegen susţine includerea în această nouă
paradigmă construită a omului şi care
trebuie să învingă mecanismul de tip
newtonian
instaurat
de
economia
standard. De asemenea, el enunţă şi
argumentează că rezolvarea problemelor
decisive ale mediului ambiant în care îşi
desfăşoară activitatea omenirea depinde
de progresul ştinţific, tehnologic şi
informaţional. Dar, simpla percepere şi
evidenţiere a progresului societăţii
omeneşti nu poate conduce automat la
rezolvarea marilor şi gravelor probleme
de ordin ecologic, factorul decisiv fiind
considerat voinţa societăţii, în ansamblul
ei, de a rezolva problemele apărute. Deci,
toate naţiunile şi în primul rând cele
bogate trebuie să dea tonul acţiunilor
hotărâte de apărare şi regenerare a
mediului natural înconjurător ce asigură
continuarea vieţii pe Pământ.
Noua sa paradigmă se bazează pe
conceptul de entropie şi care, la rândul
lui, este explicat prin Legea entropiei şi
care nu este altceva decât a doua lege a
termodinamicii, care exprima degradarea
constantaă şi ireversibilă în timp a
sistemelor termodinamice. Mai mult,
apelarea la această lege din fizică a fost
argumentată de către autor prin faptul că ,
prin natura ei, legea entropiei apare drept
cea mai ,,economică”
dintre legile
naturii. Relaţia dintre procesul economic
şi legea entropiei nu este decât un aspect
al unei situaţii general-valabile şi anume
că legea entropiei nu este altceva decât
baza economiei vieţii la toate nivelurile.
În această nouă viziune, procesul
economic trebuia înţeles într-o continuă
transformare a entropiei joase (care se
prezenta cu o structură ordonată) în
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
entropie înaltă, sau, cu alte cuvinte,
energia liberă a materiilor prime şi
bunurilor primare se transforma în energie
legată, disipată, în urma unei anumite
activităţi productive. Drept urmare, în
procesele economice are loc o degradare
continuă de ordin calitativ, structural,
generală şi ireversibilă, a energiei libere
în energie legată, o transformare a
ordinii în dezordine. Plecând de la aceste
considerente, profesorul
GeorgescuRoegen a explicat şi a tras semnalul de
alarmă privind raritatea naturale şi
deteriorarea continuă a mediului
ambiant.
Astefel pusă noua paradigmă în ştiinţa
economică, N. Georgescu-Roegen ajunge
la următoarele concluzii deosebit de
semnificative5 :
a. procesul economic nu este unul izolat
şi care să nu fie în strânsă corelaţie cu
mediul
social,
politic,
moral,
ambiental..
b. de asemenea, procesul economic
trebuie înţeles ca desfăşurându-se în
sens unic, ca un consumator
permanent de resurse rare, fără a
asigura înlocuirea acestora sau
păstrarea lor.
c. procesul economic constă într-o
continuă transformare a entropiei
joase în entropie înaltă, mai precis în
reziduuri nerecuperabile.
d. natura pozitivă a procesului economic
exclude categoric înţelegerea tuturor
aspectelor sale importante cu ajutorul
unei singure
teorii economice
universabil valabile.
e. şi ca un corolar, asumpţia potrivit
căreia lumea rămâne dependentă de
procesul economic, chiar dacă acesta
este guvernat de legea entropiei,
,,adevăratul
produs”
189
al
acestui
proces fiind plăcerea de a trăi,
utilitatea vieţii de zi cu zi. Prin această
concluzie, N. Georgescu-Roegen se
apropie de ideile marginalismului,
fiind, numai din acest punct de vedere,
un postmarginalist de mare forţă.
Pornind de la întreaga demonstraţie
roegeniană în privinţa noii modalităţi de
abordare a problemelor economice, unii
autori contemporani consideră că se poate
vorbi chiar de o descreştere durabilă
(,,decroissance
durable” ),
tocmai
datorită degradării ireversibile a resurselor
naturale cu caracter de raritate prin
folosire, pentru a se asigura creşterea
economică atât de necesară pentru fiecare
naţiune (economie naţională).
De asemenea, pornind de la aceleaşi
concluzii, profesorul Georgescu-Roegen,
de o manieră care aminteşte de
,,părintele”
teoriei populaţiei, clasicul
britanic Th. R. Malthus, doreşte să
fundamenteze şi să convingă în acelaşi
timp, că plăcerea de a trăi are cu
siguranţă a valoare, dar şi un preţ, acesta
din urmă determinat de entropia existentă
în natură, cu rezultanta fireasca risipa de
resurse finite şi poluare.
Pentru că s-a făcut apropierea de
marele clasic britanic amintit, profesorul
ieşean Ion Pohoaţă6 subliniază că
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen este un
pesimist de aceeaşi sorginte cu Malthus,
numai că nu este un fatalist precum
clasicul
britanic.
El
prefigurează
posibilitatea
ca,
prin
intermediul
cuceririlor ştiinţei şi tehnologiei, să se
Georgescu-Roegen, N. –Legea entropiei şi
procesul economic, Ed. Expert, Bucureşti, 1996, pg.
270-280, respectiv 324-334.
6
Pohoaţă, Ion –Filosofia economică şi politica
dezvoltării durabile, Ed. Economică, Bucureşti,
2003, pg. 115-118.
5
190
Contribuţii la dezvoltarea gândirii economice
poată schimba viziunea despre procesele
de producţie şi care să ducă la găsirea de
noi soluţii şi resurse alternative pentru
asigurarea viitorului şi pentru următoarele
generaţii.
Întregul ansamblu de idei şi argumente
propuse
de
profesorul
Nicholas
Georgescu-Roegen se găsesc în toate
lucrările ce doresc o tratare pertinentă a
problematicii actuale a dezvoltării
durabile. Ca să nu mai vorbim de
programele şi planurile concrete de
reducere a poluării şi de prezervare a
mediului natural şi care se bazează pe
viziunea entropică susţinătă de profesorul
american de origine română.
Chiar dacă, unele soluţii preconizate
de N. Georgescu-Roegen au un caracter
utopic ceva mai pronunţat ; chiar dacă
soluţiile gândite au un caracter globalist
(nepunându-se accentul pe realităţile şi
aspiraţiile celor din lumea mai săracă) ;
chiar dacă pentru implementarea unor
măsuri propuse se impunea intervenţia
statului şi care veneau în contradicţie cu
liberalismul specific economiei de piaţă,
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen rămâne
un mare matematician, statistician,
economist, cercetător şi pedagog şi a cărui
reputaţie sau merite în dezvoltarea şi
primenirea continuă a teoriei economice
ăi sunt şi îi vor fi permanent recunoscute.
Este o mândrie şi pentru noi, cei de astăzi,
să avem un astfel de exemplu şi o sursă de
informare foarte preţioasă pentru a
înţelege şi a participa activ la tot ceea ce
priveşte transpunerea proiectelor de
dezvoltare durabilă, privită ca un proces
complex şi multidimensional.
Bibliografie
1. Adumitrăcesei,
I.D.,
Nicholas
Geogescu-Roegen ne îndeamnă să
situăm eficienţa ecologică pe primul
plan, în ,,Economistul”
nr. 2083, 15
martie 2006.
2. Georgescu-Roegen,
N.,
Legea
entropiei şi procesul economic, Ed.
Politică, Bucureşti, 1981.
3. Georgescu-Roegen, N., Filosofia mea
de viaţă, în ,,Economistul”
nr. 2056,
6 februarie 2006.
4. Georgescu-Roegen, N., Bioeconomia,
Ed. Bollati Boringheri, Torino, 2003.
5. Georgescu-Roegen, N., DescreştereaEntropie, Ecologie, Economie, în
,,Economistul”
nr. 74-75, supliment
nr. 81, 17-20.04.1998.
6. Gordon, Donald F., The Role of the
History of Economic Thought in the
Understanding of Modern Economic
Theory, în ,,American Economic
Review” , nr. 55 (2), 1965, pg. 119127.
7. Iancu, Aurel, Opera lui Nicholas
Georgescu-Roegen şi discuţii în jurul
ei, în ,,Economistul”
nr. 2060, 10-11
februarie 2006.
8. Pohoaţă, Ion, Filosofia economică şi
politica dezvoltării durabile, Ed.
Economică, Bucureşti, 2003.
9. ***, N. Georgescu-Roegen. Omul şi
opera, vol. I, Ed. Expert, Bucureşti,
1996.
Alexandru Trifu
Viaţa ştiinţifică
Şi în anul 2006 activitatea de cercetare
ştiinţifică din domeniul economic a
Institutului de Cercetări Economice şi
Sociale „Gheorghe Zane” din Iaşi s-a
circumscris programelor şi proiectelor
stabilite pentru acest an, dar a inclus şi
alte studii şi proiecte necuprinse în plan,
realizate pe bază de contract.
I. Unul dintre programele importante
care a mobilizat cea mai mare parte a
cercetătorilor din domeniul ştiinţelor
economice, intitulat „Elemente de
fundamentare a stategiilor de dezvoltare
şi de ridicare a nivelului de
competitivitate a economiei României
din perspectiva integrării în Uniunea
Europeană” a cuprins trei proiecte:
1. ”Dezvoltarea economico-socială în
cadrul euroregiunilor şi a zonelor
transfrontaliere”, coordonat de cercet.
şt. pr. gr. I Ion Talabă şi cercet. şt. pr.
gr.III Teodor Păduraru, care a mai
cuprins în colectiv şi cercetătorii
ştiinţifici Marilena Acatrinei, Alecu
Ionel Ciprian, Alina Petronela Haller,
Ioana Dornescu şi Lucian Ignat ???, a
avut
ca
obiectiv
determinarea
oportunităţilor de dezvoltare a
Euroregiunii Siret-Prut-Nistru printr-o
strânsă colaborare cu organele
administraţiei publice locale din
judeţele României şi raioanele
Republicii Moldova care fac parte din
această euroregiune precum şi cu
Asociaţia ” Euroregiunea Siret-PrutNistru”. Membrii colectivului au
elaborat numeroase lucrări ştiinţifice
şi au susţinut comunicări, cele mai
importante fiind prezentate în cadrul
lucrărilor Sesiunii ştiinţifice naţionale
cu participare internaţională cu tema:
”Euroregiunea
Siret-Prut-Nistru.
Oportunităţi pentru o dezvoltare
economico-socială durabilă”.
Lucrările au fost deschise de prof.
univ. dr. Ana Gugiuman, Secretar
ştiinţific al institutului, ing. Lucian

Flaişer, Preşedinte al Consiliului
Judeţean Iaşi şi Preşedinte al
Consiliului director al Euroregiunii
Siret – Prut – Nistru, dr. ing. Lucian
Profir, Vicepreşedinte al Consiliului
Judeţean Iaşi, Filip Gadâmba,
Preşedinte al Raionului Călăraşi,
Aurel Cogan, Vicepreşedinte al
Raionului Străşeni, academician Ion
Batcu, dr. hab. Academia de Ştiinţe a
Republicii Moldova, prof. univ. dr.
Valentina Postolachi, Director adjunct
al Institutului Muncii din Chişinău,
Republica Moldova, şi ing. Claudia
Stoica, Director al Direcţiei de
Integrare Europeană, Dezvoltare şi
Comunicare din cadrul Consiliului
Judeţean Iaşi.
Abordând o tematică variată atât din
punct de vedere teoretic, dar mai ales
practic, la sesiune au fost înscrise un
număr de 77 lucrări, susţinute de tot
atâtea cadre didactice universitare,
cercetători ştiinţifici, reprezentanţi ai
autorităţilor
publice
locale
şi
departamentale,
precum
şi
de
reprezentanţi ai
unor
structuri
neguvernamentale
din
România,
Republica Moldova şi Ucraina.
Remarcăm, de asemenea, prezenţa
unor reprezentanţi ai Euroregiunilor
Carpatica, Prutul de Sus şi Dunărea de
Jos, din care fac parte şi structuri
administrativ-teritoriale româneşti.
Pe lângă studiile susţinute de
participanţii din România, o largă
reprezentare a fost asigurată de
membri ai Academiei de Ştiinţe din
Republica
Moldova,
de
la
Universitatea de Stat din Chişinău,
Universitatea „Alecu Russo” din Bălţi,
Universitatea Liberă Internaţională din
Moldova şi de reprezentanţi ai 11
raioane din cele 18 de peste Prut care
fac parte din Euroregiunea Siret – Prut
– Nistru.
An. Inst. cerc. ec. “Gh. Zane”, t. 15, Iaşi, 2006, p. 191–194
192
Viaţa ştiinţifică
Pornind de la conceptul general de
euroregiune şi de la viziunea largă pe
care Uniunea Europeană o are faţă de
această problematică, studiile au
analizat numeroasele aspecte pe care
aceasta
le
incumbă.
Putem
exemplifica, astfel, analizele care au
fost întreprinse asupra oportunităţilor
pentru o dezvoltare durabilă a unor
domenii precum agricultura, industria
electronică
şi
telecomunicaţiile,
sănătatea şi învăţământul, IMM-urile,
serviciile publice, turismul etc.
Pentru a facilita o difuzare cât mai
largă a informaţiilor prezentate de
autorii studiilor susţinute în plenul
Sesiunii ştiinţifice, organizatorii şi-au
asumat obligaţia de a publica două
volume, respectiv: Euroregiunile –
prezent
şi
viitor
(Editura
Performantica, Iaşi, 2006, 203p.) şi
Euroregiunea Siret – Prut – Nistru.
Caracterizare
generală
(Editura
Performantica, Iaşi, 2006, 198p.),
care se vor adăuga, astfel, la cele două
editate deja şi conţinînd lucrări de la
prima sesiune, din 1-2.07.2005.
Prin lucrările incluse în cele două
volume care au fost publicate:
„Euroregiunile – prezent şi viitor”,
coordonatori: Ion Talabă, Lucian
Profir, Daniela Covalinschi, Editura
Performantica, Iaşi, 2006, 203p., şi
„Euroregiunea Siret – Prut – Nistru.
Caracterizare generală”, coordonatori:
Ion Talabă, Lucian Flaişer, Daniela
Covalinschi, Editura Performantica,
Iaşi, 2006, 198p., cît şi prin cele două
care vor fi editate autorii lor –
cercetători ştiinţifici, cadre didactice
universitare, reprezentanţi de instituţii
publice şi oameni de producţie – şi-au
adus un aport substanţial la analiza
prezentului şi viitorului Euroregiunii
Siret – Prut – Nistru.
2. Un alt proiect important, strâns legat de
dezvoltarea regională şi în special a
zonelor rurale, care se înscrie în
preocupările
de
tradiţie
ale
colectivului institutului nostru, este cel
intitulat Turismul rural românesc.
Prin efortul unit a patru prestigioase
instituţii: Institutul de Cercetări
Economice şi Sociale ”Gheorghe
Zane”,
Institutul
Naţional
de
Cercetare-Dezvoltare în Turism din
cadrul Ministerului Transporturilor,
Construcţiilor şi Turismului, Asociaţia
Naţională de Turism Rural, Ecologic
şi Cultural (ANTREC) Bucureşti şi
Centrul de Formare şi Inovare pentru
Dezvoltare în Carpaţi (CEFIDEC)
Vatra Dornei din cadrul Ministerului
agriculturii, pădurilor şi dezvoltării
rurale, în perioada 26-27.05.2006, în
frumoasa capitală a Ţării Dornelor,
renumita staţiune balneo-climaterică
Vatra Dornei, s-au desfăşurat lucrările
celei de-a VIII-a ediţii a Sesiunii
ştiinţifice naţionale cu participare
internaţională cu tema
”Turismul
rural românesc. Actualitate şi
perspectivă”, care a reunit 82
cercetători ştiinţifici, cadre didactice
universitare din ţara noastră şi din
Republica Moldova, specialişti în
turism, amfitrioni în turism. Au fost
susţinute 73 de comunicări ştiinţifice
legate de teoria şi practica turismului
rural.
Un aport deosebit a fost adus de prof.
univ. dr. Radu Rey, membru al
Academiei de Ştiinţe Agricole şi
Silvice din România şi Preşedinte al
Forumului montan din România, unul
dintre
primii
teoreticieni
ai
agroturismului, ale cărui lucrări: Viitor
în Carpaţi (1972) şi Civilizaţie
Montană (1974) reprezintă şi astăzi
repere de necontestat în abordarea
acestui domeniu.
Volumele: „Turismul rural românesc.
Metode de cercetare şi analiză.
Probleme de impact”, coordonatori
Ion Talabă, Maria Stoian, Teodor
Păduraru, Editura Performantica, Iaşi,
2006,
175p.,
„Turismul
rural
românesc. Actualitate şi perspectivă.
Viaţa ştiinţifică
Potenţial de dezvoltare, marketing şi
resurse umane”, coordonatori: Ion
Talabă, Ianoş Talpaş, Aurel Burciu,
Editura Performantica, Iaşi, 2006,
202p. şi „Transporturile şi turismul”,
autor
Ion
Talabă,
Editura
Performantica, Iaşi, 2006,179p.
3. Proiectul
„Dezvoltări
ale
managementului în vederea creşterii
competitivităţii şi eficienţei serviciilor
publice în perspectiva integrării în
Uniunea Europeană”, realizat de un
colectiv coordonat de cercet. şt. pr. gr.
I Dorian Vlădeanu şi din care mai fac
parte cercet. şt. pr. gr. III Ovidiu
Gherasim şi cercet. şt. drd. Georgiana
Tacu, s-a concretizat prin realizarea
volumului „Fundamentarea deciziilor
în managementul modern prin tehnici
de simulare”, autor Dorian Vlădeanu,
în curs de publicare la Editura
Academiei Române şi prin numeroase
articole şi comunicări ştiinţifice.
II.
În
cadrul
Programului
„Dezvoltarea teoriei deciziilor în condiţii
de risc şi incertitudine” în cursul acestui
an un colectiv coordonat de cercet. şt. pr.
gr. III Ovidiu Gherasim şi din care mai
face parte cercet. şt. drd. Georgiana Tacu
a
realizat
proiectul
„Tratarea
incertitudinii prin modele decizionale
axate pe teoria fuzzy”. Activitatea acestui
colectiv s-a concretizat printr-un număr
important de articole şi comunicări
ştiinţifice, precum şi prin volumul
„Fundamentarea deciziilor prin modelarea
informaţiilor incerte cu numere fuzzy
poligonale (Teorie şi aplicaţii)”, autor
Ovidiu Gherasim, editura Performantica,
Iaşi, 2006, 200p.
III.
Programul
de
cercetare
”Dezvoltarea
spaţiului
rural”
al
Colectivului de Economie Rurală condus
de cercet. şt. princ. I dr. Valentin – Mihai
Bohatereţ, din care mai fac parte cercet.
şt. princ. II Krisztina Melinda Dobay,
193
Daniela Matei, Petru Ivanof, Ioan
Sebastian Brumă, are două proiecte:
1. Spaţiul rural: evaluări, monografii şi
dicţionare
2. Strategii şi politici de dezvoltare
rurală, cu temele:
- Managementul activ al resurselor
naturale;
- Strategii de dezvoltare rurală;
- Economia mediului acvatic;
- Dezvoltarea activităţilor neagricole;
- Politici de agro-mediu.
Materialul ştiinţific elaborat a fost
valorificat în numeroase comunicări
ştiinţifice şi articole publicate în reviste de
specialitate sau volume colective.
Manifestări ştiinţifice organizate în
cadrul Zilelor Academice Ieşene, Ediţia
a XXI-a, Iaşi, 8-9 septembrie 2006
- Sesiunea ştiinţifică „Progrese în teoria
deciziilor economice”
62 participanţi cu 76 comunicări
- Sesiunea ştiinţifică „Sisteme fuzzy în
economie”
9 participanţi cu 12 lucrări
- Sesiunea ştiinţifică „Dezvoltarea
rurală în Regiunea Nord-Est”
15 participanţi cu 26 lucrări
Alte manifestări ştiinţifice la care au
participat cercetători din domeniul
economic din institutul nostru
- Conferinţa internaţională „Impactul
transporturilor
asupra
dezvoltării
relaţiilor economice internaţionale”,
Ediţia a II-a, organizatori: Universitatea
de stat din Chişinău, Academia de
Transporturi, Informatică şi Comunicaţii
din Chişinău, Ministerul Educaţiei,
Tineretului şi Sportului al Republicii
Moldova, Chişinău, 23-24 februarie
2006;
- Conferinţa internaţională „Costul muncii
şi salariul: garanţii şi mecanisme”,
organizator: Institutul Muncii din
Chişinău, Chişinău, 15 februarie 2006;
- Simpozionul internaţional „Probleme şi
strategii de dezvoltare ale sistemului
194
Viaţa ştiinţifică
financiar”, organizatori: Universitatea
Cooperatist-Comercială din Republica
Moldova,
Academia
de
Studii
Economice din Moldova, Catedra de
Finanţe-Bănci,
Chişinău,
20-21
octombrie 2006
- The 3rd International Conference Rural
Space
and
Local
Development,
Universitatea
„Babeş-Bolyai”,
Facultatea de Geografie, 22-24 iunie
2006, Cluj-Napoca
- Al XXII-lea Simpozion Naţional de
Istorie şi Retrologie Agrară a României,
24-26 august 2006, Deva.
Proiecte
- „Analiza factorilor de risc în
implementarea proiectelor finanţate prin
programe europene în Regiunea de
dezvoltare Nord-Est”, Contract de grant
al Academiei Române nr. 116/2006,
responsabil proiect: Teodor Păduraru;
- „Promovarea convergenţei regionale –
potenţarea reţelei ştiinţifice în domeniul
dezvoltării rurale”, CEEX-M3-C312413, IEA, ASE, ICES – responsabil
ştiinţific proiect: Krisztina Melinda
Dobay;
- „Evaluarea stadiului actual şi a
potenţialului de dezvoltare a producţiei
legumicole ecologice în zona de NordEst a României – PRODLECO”, CEEX
P-CD, nr. 14/12.10.2006, USAMV Iaşi,
SCL Bacău, ICB Iaşi, ICES „Gh. Zane”,
responsabil ştiinţific proiect: Valentin –
Mihai Bohatereţ
Teodor Păduraru