Report to PLACE
Pennine Lancashire
Economic Assessment
Prepared by Saeed Patel and Kenneth Barnsley
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council
Third Floor
Town Hall
Blackburn
BB1 7DY
2 December 2010
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
2 of 11
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
1.
Summary
This report sets out the Local Economic Assessment for Pennine Lancashire and serves
as the Local Economic Assessment for Blackburn with Darwen. It has been developed
between April and November 2010, with contributions to the structure and
suggestions for suitable content from the Place Strategy Unit, Blackburn with Darwen
Economic Development and Regeneration, Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
and the districts that make up Pennine Lancashire. The report has been produced by
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence at Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council.
The LEA duty came into effect in April 2010, requiring all upper-tier and unitary
councils to produce detailed assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of their
local economies. Although the duty is likely to be removed by the Coalition
Government, both Blackburn with Darwen and Pennine Lancashire are clear that
there is a strong need to understand the local economy provide the fundamental
evidence base to support the development of economic policy and strategy for
Pennine Lancashire, the Multi-Area Agreement and the developing proposals for
Local Economic Partnership.
Chapter One looks at the people that live in Pennine Lancashire and the
demographic profile; chapter two looks at the workforce; chapter three
concentrates on business, the structure of the economy and key sector trends;
chapter four examines communities; chapter five looks at the housing context;
chapter six provides key information for the environment and chapter seven focuses
on deprivation, social inclusion, crime and health.
This first section of the report is intended as a stand alone document which provides a
summary of the key issues and trends from each of the seven chapters. The full report
is available from Corporate Research Joint Intelligence and provides a detailed
evidence base for the local economy of Pennine Lancashire.
2.
People
The resident population is a key asset of Pennine Lancashire as a place to live,
work and visit; the key features and trends for people in Pennine Lancashire are:
 The number of residents increased from 2001 to 2009, with the population of
Ribble Valley increasing the most (+6.5%) and that of Burnley declining (-4.4%)
 Over the next twenty years the proportion of children in Pennine Lancashire is
projected to fall marginally, while the proportion of workers will fall and there will
be a large increase in the proportion of retired residents, particularly in Ribble
Valley
 One in eight residents (13%) come from an ethnic minority background and in
Blackburn with Darwen the figure is almost one in four (23%)
 Changes in the population structure over the next twenty years will impact on
dependency ratio for older people which will rise to more than one in three by
2030 (36%)
 Future housing demand is strongly linked with projections of an ageing
population and trends towards smaller households, with a projected increase of
18% in the number of households in Pennine Lancashire over the next 20 years
 Throughout the years of this millennium there has been relatively steady
immigration from the Indian Subcontinent while the growth of Eastern European
Migrants was dramatic from 2002, but reaching a peak in 2007
2.1
Resident Population - In 2009, the population of Blackburn with Darwen was
139,900, a continuation of the decline in population which peaked at 141,200 in 2005
having increased from 138,200 in 1999. The population of Pennine Lancashire was
520,600 in 2009 and marginal increase of less than half of one% (+0.4%) from 2001. In
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
3 of 11
that same period, Ribble Valley had the largest percentage increase in population
(+6.5%), with Burnley experiencing the greatest decrease (-4.4%). These changes
came during a period when population of the North West increased by almost 2%
(+1.8%) and the population of England and Wales by almost 5% (+4.8%)
In Pennine Lancashire, which has a little over one in five people (21.4%) aged 15 or
under, Blackburn with Darwen has the highest proportion of under 16s (24.3%), with
Ribble Valley having the lowest (18.4%). Conversely Ribble valley has the greatest
level of people over retirement age with almost one in four residents (23.1%) over the
age of retirement (60/65) while Blackburn has less than one in six (15.4%).
2.2
Ethnic Minority Residents - Current estimates of the ethnic population for
Pennine Lancashire identify one in eight people (13%) from an ethnic minority
population. Blackburn with 23% has the greatest proportion of ethnic minority
population followed by Pendle (16%) and then by Burnley (10%) and Hyndburn (10%),
while in Ribble Valley, less than one in twenty five (4%) residents come from and
ethnic minority background.
2.3
Future Population - Population projections indicate that the overall population
for Pennine Lancashire will increase by 4% by 2030, a lower level of growth than either
the North West (+7%) and significantly less than England which is forecast to increase
by one sixth (+16%). Within Pennine Lancashire the greatest projected increase to
2030 is in Ribble Valley (+10%), followed by Rossendale (+8%), Pendle (6%) and
Blackburn with Darwen (+5%), while Burnley is projected to lose population (-3%).
While the overall population is forecast to increase by 21,000 in Pennine Lancashire,
the distribution of the population in relation to children (0-15), people of working (1659/60) and retired (60/65+) will shift significantly across the area. The proportion of
children in the population will remain relatively stable falling from 21per cent to 20% of
all residents, but the proportion of people of working age will fall from 60% of residents
to 54% and retired residents will increase from less than one in five (18%) to more than
one in four (26%). The biggest shift is projected in Ribble Valley which by 2030 will have
more than one in three (34%) of residents in retirement. In Blackburn with Darwen, the
proportion of children will remain at a similar level, while the proportion in working age
groups will fall from 60% to 56% and those above retirement age will increase from
15% to 20%.
2.4
Dependency - The results of these project changes in the distribution of
population across the age groups have a dramatic impact on dependency ratios,
which indicate the proportions of the population that depend on people of working
age. In Blackburn with Darwen the dependency ratio for children with increase from
40% to 42% in the twenty years between 2010 and 2030, while the ratio for older
people is projected to increase dramatically from one in four residents (26%) to more
than one in three residents (36%) by 2030.
2.5
Future Households - changes in population structure and trends, which
indicate a growth in the number of single person households, will have a significant
impact on the number of households over the next 20 years. National projections
show an increase of almost 30% in the number of households by 2030. The projections
show a potential increase in housing demand of a quarter between 2006 and 2031
and 18% in Pennine Lancashire between 2011 and 2031, from 226,000 to 267,000. The
greatest proportional increase will be for Ribble Valley (+42%), with projected
increases in Blackburn with Darwen (24%), Hyndburn (24%), Pendle (24%) and
Rossendale (25%) all in line with growth in the sub region and the lowest projected
growth in Burnley (+14%).
2.6
Migration - International migration has played a significant role in shaping the
population of Pennine Lancashire, with waves of migrants from the early 60’s from the
Indian Subcontinent and more recently from Eastern Europe. Since 2002/03 the
number of foreign national registrations in Lancashire from the Indian Subcontinent
increased from 1,440 reaching a peak of 1,800 in 2007/08 falling back to 1,650 in
2008/09. In the same period following European Integration, the number of Eastern
European registrations increased from just 30 in 2002/03 reaching more than 5,000
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
4 of 11
each year between 2005/06 and 2007/08 before falling to 3,280 in 2008/09. Between
2004 and 2009, the total number of Foreign National registering for employment in
Great Britain were almost 9% of the working population; in Pennine Lancashire the
greatest proportionate level of registrations was 5.4% in Blackburn with Darwen
followed by 4.6% in Pendle while the lowest was 1.4% in Rossendale.
2.7
Social Exclusion – The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) showed that each of
the Boroughs in Pennine Lancashire was relatively more deprived in 2007 than in 2004,
with the exception of Rossendale which retained the same relative average ranking
as 92nd most deprived local authority area and Ribble Valley which was relatively less
deprived in 2007 (302nd) than in 2004 (288th). Blackburn with Darwen was 17th most
deprived Local Authority in 2007 (34 th in 2004), Burnley 21st (37th), Hyndburn 40th (58th)
and Pendle 44th (71st). The IMD provides evidence that Pennine Lancashire is slipping
backwards in terms of relative deprivation.
3.
Workforce
The workforce is a fundamental driver of the local economy, and providing a
supply of skilled and qualified workers is seen as crucial for sustainable economic
growth, innovation and stability:
 Pupil attainment at GCSE increased dramatically between 2005 and 2009, from
47% with 5+A*-C grades BwD in 2005 to 73% in 2009, with increases across
Pennine Lancashire
 The proportion of adults with higher skill levels (NVQ4) increased across Pennine
Lancashire between 2001 and 2008, though not enough to suggest that the
Leitch target of 40% is achievable in the sub region by 2020.
 Employment rates fell across PL(-3.7ppts), with Hyndburn (+1.9ppts) and Pendle
(+0.3ppts) bucking what was a national trends (-1.7ppts) between 2005 and
2009
 Self employment rates are consistently higher in Pennine Lancashire districts
(15%+)compared with the North West (11.7%) and national (13.0%) rates
 The impact of the recession hit workers hard across the country in the year to
May 2009, with numbers on Job Seekers Allowance almost doubling nationally;
in some of the Pennine Lancashire district number more than doubled with an
98% increase overall
 From May 2009 numbers claiming JSA began to fall, and in the year to May 2010
numbers fell by 15% across PL, with the highest unemployment rate in Blackburn
with Darwen at 4.5% of the workforce
 In all districts of Pennine Lancashire other than Blackburn with Darwen, residents
earn more on average than the workforce of businesses in the district. The
greatest difference is in Ribble Valley where male residents earn £180 a week
more than people working in the area.
3.1
School Attainment - The percentage of pupils at secondary school achieving
5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE is one of the key indicators of educational
achievement. From 2005 to 2009 the North West figure increased from 54% to 71%, a
greater increase than nationally where the percentage for England increased from
56% to 70%. In Pennine Lancashire there have been some significant increases
although, there is no overall figure for the sub region. The greatest increase was in
Blackburn with Darwen which increased from 47% in 2005 to 73% in 2009 (+26ppts),
Hyndburn (+18ppts), Rossendale (+17ppts) and Pendle (+15ppts) showed percentage
point increases in the mid teens with Rossendale achieving the second highest
percentage in Pennine Lancashire in 2009 (76%). Ribble Valley showed the least
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
5 of 11
percentage point increase, starting from a higher base in 2005 (71%) although in 2009
it had the highest level in Pennine Lancashire (78%).
3.2
Adult Qualifications – The Leitch Report set a target for higher skills of 40% of
the working age population to be qualified to NVQ level 4 by 2020. The figures for
England increased from 25% in 2001 to 31% in 2008, while the North West figure
increased by a similar level from 23% to 27%. In Pennine Lancashire the greatest
percentage point increase was in Burnley which increased by 10 percentage points
(ppts) to 23%; next greatest increase was in Ribble Valley(6ppts to 40%), followed by
Pendle (6ppts to 21%). Blackburn increased by 5ppts to 23% while Hyndburn showed
the least improvement increasing by 1ppt to 19%. At the other end of the scale,
nationally 12% of the working age population has no qualification, with a
comparable figure of 15% for the North West. There is significant variation across
Pennine Lancashire from 6% in Ribble Valley to 26% in Burnley and Pendle; however
other than Ribble Valley districts in Pennine Lancashire have a greater percentage of
the workforce with no qualifications than the North West.
3.3
Employment Rate – In 2009 the percentage of the workforce in England with a
job stood at 73%, down by 1.7ppts from 2005. In Pennine Lancashire the employment
rate fell by 3.7ppts to 68% in the same period. While Hyndburn (+1.9ppts) and Pendle
(+0.3) showed small increases, Rossendale (-11ppts), Blackburn with Darwen (-5ppts),
Burnley (-5) and Ribble Valley (-5) all fell.
3.4
Economic Activity – At the time of the 2001 Census Pennine Lancashire had
an economic activity rate (64%) matching that of the North West, though economic
activity in Blackburn with Darwen (61%) is lower. Blackburn with Darwen also had a
lower proportion of full-time workers (37%) than Pennine Lancashire (39%), the North
West (39%) or England (41%). With a young population Blackburn with Darwen had a
lower proportion of retired people (12%) than generally in Pennine Lancashire ((14%),
the North West (14%) or England (14%). 2008 figure show the economic activity rate
for Blackburn with Darwen as 71%, compared with 74% for PL, 77% North West and
79% for England. Within PL, Ribble Valley (82%) has the highest economic activity rate
and Rossendale (69%) the lowest.
3.5
Self Employment – a key measure of entrepreneurial behaviour, self
employment levels in England varied round 13% between 2005 and 2009 reaching a
high point of 13.4% in 2008. In the North West there appears to be an upward trend
from 11.2% in 2005 increasing consistently to 11.7% in 2009. In Pennine Lancashire the
2009 figures for districts are consistently high with rates of 15% and greater for all
districts apart from Blackburn with Darwen (11.7%). Local rates are subject to
significant variability, particularly in Rossendale which varies from 6.2% in 2008 to 17%
in 2005; likely to be a result of survey methods in the Annual Population Survey.
3.6
Unemployment – the numbers of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA)
increased dramatically as a result of the recession from May 2008 to May 2009. The
JSA figures almost doubled in the UK in that year (+88%), increasing by 77% in the
North West, 99% in Pennine Lancashire and by 84% in Blackburn with Darwen. In
Hyndburn (104%), Pendle (102%) Ribble Valley (118%) and Rossendale (150%) the
figures more than doubled. In the following years to May 2010 there was a fall in
numbers by an average 15% across PL, compared with a fall of 6% in the North West
and 4% in UK. In May 2010 unemployment stood at 4.5% in Blackburn with Darwen,
the highest Rate amongst Pennine Lancashire districts.
3.7
Worklessness – almost 20,000 people in Blackburn with Darwen were claiming
out of work benefits in November 2009, representing almost one in four (23%) residents
of working age. Burnley (22%) and Hyndburn (20%) had more than one in five working
age residents in the category, while Ribble Valley was the lowest in Pennine
Lancashire with less than one in ten (9%). These local figures compare with 15% in the
UK and 18% in the North West.
3.8
Earnings – across Pennine Lancashire the earnings of residents differ widely
from the earnings of those people that work in the sub region; the greatest difference
is in Rossendale where residents earn an average of £90 a week more than those
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
6 of 11
people that work in businesses in the area. In all districts there is a positive difference
between residents’ average earnings and workplace earnings varying from £10.60 in
Hyndburn to £89.90 in Rossendale implying that significant numbers of residents earn
better wages working out of the Borough. This does not hold true for Blackburn with
Darwen where residents earn an average of £8.90 less than people that work in the
Borough. In the North West women earn £90 a week less than men and this differential
is maintained across Pennine Lancashire for both residents and the workforce. In
Blackburn with Darwen, resident and workforce earnings are at the same level
(£443/week), while women residents earn £21.20 less than the female workforce,
implying that women from outside the borough come into Blackburn with Darwen to
take the better paid jobs. Earnings for both residents and workforce show a significant
gender pay gap which is greatest for residents of Ribble Valley, where men earn
almost £200 a week more than women.
4.
Business
The commercial sector is a key part of the local economy
 PL provides 210,000 jobs with more than one in five (21%) in Manufacturing and
almost three in ten (28%) in the public sector
 Employment in manufacturing has declined from 40% of all jobs in 1998 to 21% in
2008, though still more than the North West (11%) or nationally (9%)
 One in six manufacturing jobs are in transport and equipment, the largest sub
sector with printing (9%) still a major sub sector
 Service jobs represent almost three out of four (73%) jobs in Pennine Lancashire
with Public admin, health and education (28%) the larger part and wholesale and
retail providing almost one in five (18%) of all jobs
 Creative and digital business are in a growing sector with 1,800 jobs in the sub
region, with a higher rate of growth than either the North West or UK
 Construction has been a significant driver of employment growth over the ten
years to 2008 increasing by 31% to 9,000 jobs in PL
 More than eight out of ten (83%) businesses employ fewer than 10 people
 New Pennine Lancashire businesses are more likely to survive five years (56%) than
those business start-ups nationally (47%)
4.1
Output - Gross Value Added (GVA) is a key measure of the value of goods
and services produced by an area and in 2007, Blackburn with Darwen produced
£2.1bn, comprising 2% of North West production. Average annual growth in GVA for
the ten years to 2007 was lower in Blackburn with Darwen (3.2%pa) than the North
West (4.6%) and the UK (5.4%). In 1996, 45% of GVA in Blackburn with Darwen was
generated from manufacturing, with 20% from the public sector; by 2007, the public
sector (30%) contributed more to GVA than manufacturing (27%), while GVA from
business services and finance increased from 12% in 1996 to 17% in 2007.
4.2
Economic Structure – Blackburn with Darwen provides 62,600 jobs, almost
equally spilt between men and women, while 73% are full time. Pennine Lancashire
provides 210,000 jobs with the largest number in manufacturing (21%), followed by
wholesale and retail (18%); the public sector provides 56,900 jobs (28%), although
these are split between public admin and defence (4%), education (11%) and health
and social work (14%). Almost one in three (30%) of all jobs in the sub-region are in the
public sector.
4.3
Manufacturing - With a strong manufacturing history, more than one in five
jobs (21%) in the sub region are in manufacturing, compared with one in ten in the
North West (11%) and nationally (9%). In employment terms the sector has declined
from four out of ten jobs (40%) in 1998 to less than three in ten (27%) in 2008. The key
subsectors for manufacturing are:
 Textiles – the decline of textiles in the North West is part of the industrial narrative of
the region with huge transformation over the last 100 years. The decline continues
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
7 of 11
and between 1998 and 2008 the number of jobs in textiles in Pennine Lancashire fell
by 71% from 14,768 to 4,261.
 Food and Drink – this sector increased it’s share of all manufacturing jobs in Pennine
Lancashire from 7% in 1998 to 8% in 2008
 Optical and Electrical equipment – a declining sector in terms of employment from
7% of manufacturing jobs in 1998 to 6% in 2008. Blackburn has four out of ten jobs in
this sector (39%) across Pennine Lancashire.
 Printing – almost one in ten jobs (9%) in manufacturing were in print and associated
businesses in 2008, with almost half of them in Blackburn with Darwen (49%) and one
in five (19%) in Hyndburn.
 Machinery and Equipment – This sector represents 7% of all manufacturing
employment in Pennine Lancashire. The majority of jobs are located in Blackburn
with Darwen (23%), Pendle (21%) and Hyndburn (19%).
 Transport and Equipment – Almost one in six manufacturing jobs (16%) in Pennine
Lancashire are in this sector, with most in Ribble Valley (53%) followed by Pendle
(20%) and Burnley (18%) and Blackburn with Darwen (5%). The sector generally
showed an increase in employment between 1998 and 2008, particularly in Burnley
and Ribble Valley.
 Chemical and man-made fibres – accounts for 6% of all manufacturing jobs, with
most in Blackburn with Darwen (45%).
 Non-metallic minerals – just 2% of all manufacturing jobs in Pennine Lancashire, the
majority of jobs in this sector are in Ribble Valley (47%).
4.4
Services – In 1998 services accounted for almost two out of three (60%) jobs in
Pennine Lancashire, but this rose to three out of four (73%) by 2008. The key sectors
have changes over that time responding to challenges nationally and globally.
 Wholesale and Retail – almost one in five (18%) of jobs in Pennine Lancashire are in
this sector which grew by 1.6 ppts between 1998 and 2008.
 Hotels and Restaurants - representing one in twenty jobs (5%) in Pennine Lancashire
this sector declined by almost 9% between 1998 and 2008. Almost one in four jobs in
the sector are in Ribble Valley (22%) with a growing sector, while in Hyndburn the
sector is declining.
 Public Administration Health and Education – provides three out of ten (28%) jobs in
Pennine Lancashire in a sector that increased by almost 20% from 47,812 jobs in
1998 to 56,943 in 2008.
 Transport and Communications – One in twenty five (4%) of all jobs in Pennine
Lancashire, with more than a third (37%) located in Blackburn with Darwen and one
in five (18%) in Burnley. A declining sector which lost 30% of jobs between 1998 and
2008.
 Financial Intermediation – More than half of the 3000 financial intermediation jobs in
the sub-region are located in Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley. While the sector
declined in Blackburn with Darwen between 1998 and 2008, there was significant
growth in Burnley and Hyndburn.
 Creative and Digital – employment in this sector grew by more than half (56%)
between 1998 and 2008 to 1,800 jobs across Pennine Lancashire. Growth in
employment was greater than that nationally and regionally and in Blackburn with
Darwen employment increased by 86%, accounting for almost four out of ten (38%)
of jobs in the sub region.
 ICT Telecommunications – a second sector with significant growth in the sub-region
between 1998 and 2008, with employment growing by more than a quarter to 3,600
jobs. In Blackburn with Darwen the sector grew by 40%.
 Sport and Leisure – the sector employs 6,000 people, Blackburn with Darwen
accounts for two fifths of this employment. In Hynburn, Pendle and the Ribble valley
employment has increased over the period.
 4.5 Construction – between 1998 and 2008 there was a 31% increase in
construction jobs in Pennine Lancashire to 9,000 or one in twenty jobs (5%) in the
sub-region. Almost half of the jobs are in Burnley (23%) and Hyndburn (23%).
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
8 of 11
4.6
Tourism –15,400 are employed in tourism across Pennine Lancashire
accounting for one in fourteen jobs, although the sector declined by 6% between
1998 and 2008.
4.7
The Knowledge Economy – estimates suggest that more than 80,000 people
are employed in knowledge economy industries in Pennine Lancashire or four out of
ten jobs (41%) and that four out of ten people in those industries are employed in
senior occupations; managers, professionals and associate professionals. This suggests
that Pennine Lancashire has 32,000 people in Knowledge economy jobs.
4.8
Small and Medium Sized Enterprises – across Pennine Lancashire more than
eight out of ten (83%) of almost 20,000 businesses employ fewer than 10 people.
Blackburn with Darwen has a higher percentage of business that employ a greater
number of people than Pennine Lancashire as a whole.
4.9
Entrepreneurship – in 2008 more than one in ten (11%) businesses in Pennine
Lancashire had set up that year and in all districts with the exception of Pendle there
were more new businesses that businesses that stopped trading. Nine out of ten new
businesses in Pennine Lancashire employed fewer than 5 people and as did a similar
percentage (87%) of those business that ceased to trade.
4.10
Sustainable Businesses – Nationally, fewer than half the businesses that startup in any given year are still trading fiver years later (UK 47%, 2003 base). Across
Pennine Lancashire of those businesses that started in 2003, businesses in the Ribble
Valley had the greatest five years survival rate (56%) followed by Rossendale (50%),
with Blackburn with Darwen (44%) and Burnley (44%) the lowest rate. Survival rates
varied between industries, with the highest survival rates, other than in the public
sectors of health (63%) and education (60%), to be found in construction (50%), other
services (49%), property and business services (48%) and manufacturing (48%), and
the lowest rate in hotels and catering (34%).
5.
Places and Connections
PL boasts some of the most beautiful lesser know countryside in the UK
 Almost 90% of the land area is green space
 With more than 8million m2 of floorspace and a combined rateable value of more
than £250 million, Pennine Lancashire has almost 17,000 commercial units
 Average floorspace cost in Pennine Lancashire (£31/m2) is significantly lower than
across the North West (£50/m2)
 People tend work near to home with almost half of the workforce working within
5km of home.
5.1
Blackburn with Darwen - surrounded by some of the most beautiful
countryside in Britain, is a key geographical and cultural gateway to Pennine
Lancashire. It is located between the high land on the Metropolitan boroughs of
Bolton and Bury in the South and Mellor ridge to the north. The West Pennine Moors
form a natural barrier to Chorley and to the east a barrier to Rossendale. The borough
covers an area of 13,700 hectares. The borough is characterised by relatively
compact urban areas set within countryside. Within the main urban areas both Town
Centres are surrounded by large areas of high density terraced housing, parts of
which are in poor condition. Both towns have significant areas of “suburban”
development, comprising a mix of larger older properties and more recent
development, comprising a mix of larger older properties and more recent
development. The borough has significant rural fringes containing a number of
villages. The landscape in the rural area has been shaped by farming – sheep on the
uplands and dairy cattle on the low-lying areas – and small-scale mining and
quarrying. Residents in rural areas, however, are more likely to seek work in nearby
towns and cities.
5.2
Land Use – Pennine Lancashire comprises a total land area of 121,044
hectares, with almost 89% green space, compared with 83% in the North West, with
much of the difference coming from a greater proportion of lakes, reservoirs and
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
9 of 11
other water in the North West land area. In Pennine Lancashire the proportion of
green space varies from 78 percent in Hyndburn and Blackburn with Darwen to
95per cent in Ribble Valley.
5.3
Commercial property – Pennine Lancashire has a total of 16,857 commercial
units, comprising retail premises, offices, factories warehouses and other bulk
premises, adding up to 8,146,000m2of floor space with a combined ratable value of
£250million. The average floor space of units in Pennine Lancashire was 483 m2 and
average floor space cost was £31/m2, with costs based on rateable values rather
than market lease values. Average floor space costs are low compared with £50/m2
across the North West. Unit floor space costs vary across Pennine Lancashire from
£34/m2 in Blackburn with Darwen to £24/m2 in Pendle. Hyndburn (17%) and
Rossendale (15%) have the highest proportion of vacant commercial units while
Ribble Valley (3%) and Pendle (7%) have the lowest, with trends generally upward.
5.4
Travel to Work – Pennine Lancashire is widely accepted as a functioning
Economic Area and figures for distance travelled to work provide support. Almost half
of the workforce (49%) work within 5km of their homes compared with 40% nationally,
while less than one in ten (9%) in Pennine Lancashire travel more than 20km to work
compared with one in eight (13%) nationally.
6.
Housing
Housing is one of the key attractors of place
 House prices in Pennine Lancashire increased at a greater rate than nationally over
the ten years to 2008, but still lag regional average prices
 Relative housing costs are lower than the North West across Pennine Lancashire
other than in Ribble Valley
 Housing is relatively more affordable in Pennine Lancashire than in the regional or
nationally, although general house prices are increasing at a much greater rate
than incomes.
Housing in Pennine Lancashire is characterised by high density terraced housing in
town Centres and with almost half of all housing (48%) terraced, compared with one
in three (31%) in the North West and one in four (25%) nationally.
6.1
Housing Cost –Average house prices (mean) doubled or increased by over a
hundred percent, 120% nationally in the ten years to 2009, while the North West
registered a 133% increase in Blackburn with Darwen a 140% increase, along with
Rossendale (+141%) the highest rate of increase in Pennine Lancashire. Homes in the
lowest quartile of house prices, house prices increased nationally by almost half
(+46%), and by more than half in the North West (+52%), while in Pennine Lancashire
prices almost doubles in Pendle (+85%) and increased by more than half in Blackburn
with Darwen (+61%), Ribble Valley (+56%), Hyndburn (+50%) and Rossendale (+50%).
6.2
Relative Housing Costs - the key link between housing cost and incomes is a
significant factor in determining how the local economy functions. The link is
particularly important in the lower quartile where the ration between lower quartile
house prices and lower quartile annual income; this affordability ration is 5 in the
North West where a first time buyer home would cost on average five time average
annual income. All Boroughs in Pennine Lancashire are more affordable than the
North West with all having a ratio of less than 4 other than Ribble Valley (7.6) and
Rossendale (4.9).
6.3
Affordability – National trends for affordability are measured through the ratio
between median house prices and median earnings. Nationally this ration has
increased steadily from 3.9 in 1999 to 6.3 in 2009 and in the North West from 3.0 in 1999
to 5.2 in 2009. In 2009 All Boroughs in Pennine Lancashire showed were more
affordable than either the North West or Nationally with the exception of Ribble
Valley (7.4), and, although all ratios have increased since 2003, there has been a
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
10 of 11
leveling off from 2006 and all fell between 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the
falling housing market.
6.4
Council Tax Valuations – Due to the nature of housing in Pennine Lancashire,
almost three out of five houses are in the lowest Council Tax Band A, with Boroughs
varying from 63% in Pendle to 59% in Hyndburn with Rossendale at 52% and a
significantly different profile in Ribble Valley with 14% in Band A. This compares with
two in five in the North West (42%) and one in four (25%) nationally.
7.
Environment
The environment in all its guises will be a key issue over the coming twenty years
 Households waste is reducing nationally and regionally and trends in Pennine
Lancashire match the national figures although lagging in terms of the current
level
 Recycling rates are generally better than North West or national rates
 Landfill rates are higher than North West or Nationally, although declining
alongside national rates of reduction.
Global Warming and the use of the worlds resources will become major issues for
localities over the next twenty years and local government has begun to understand
the critical nature of waste and landfill.
7.1
Household Waste – residual waste per household nationally fell by 9%
between 2007/08 and 2008/09 and by a similar margin in the North West (9%);
reductions across Pennine Lancashire varied from 19% in Ribble Valley, 11% in
Blackburn with Darwen to 3.4 % in Burnley with a small increase of 0.2% in Hyndburn.
All Pennine Authorities with the exception of Burnley (33%) and Pendle (35%)
achieved recycling rates equal to or better than the North West Average (37%)
7.2
Landfill – there has been a steady decline in the proportion of municipal
waste sent to landfill, from three quarters nationally (75%) in 2002/03 to half (50%) in
2008/09. This trend has been mirrored in Blackburn with Darwen although the current
proportion (60%) is higher than the North West (54%) and England (50%) rate.
7.3
CO2 emissions – All of the Boroughs in Penning Lancashire have per capita
CO2 emissions at a lower level that either the North West (8.4 tonnes per capita) or
the UK (8.4) with the exception of Ribble Valley (20.2). There is significant variability by
Local Authority due to population numbers, geography and the nature of the local
economy.
8.


Deprivation, Health and Crime
Six summaries of the IMD2007 are available at local authority level. These
summaries show different aspects of deprivation.
It is important to note that no single summary measure is favoured over another,
i.e. there is no single best way of describing or comparing England’s 354 local
authority districts.
8.1
Deprivation - In 2004 Blackburn with Darwen was 34th most deprived based on
the rank of average score by 2007 Blackburn with Darwen’s position worsened and it
is now the 17th most deprived nationally.
8.2
Benefit claimants - In February 2010, there were a total of 19,940 benefit
claimants in Blackburn with Darwen. This is equivalent to 22.7% of the population
aged 16-64, this compares to 18.4% for the North West and 14.7% in England.
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Pennine Lancashire Economic Assessment
11 of 11
After Blackburn with Darwen, of the six Pennine Lancashire districts, Burnley has the
second highest number with 12,100 or 22.3% of the population aged 16-64. Ribble
valley has the lowest percentage of claimants aged 16-64 with 8.8%.
8.3
Disability - The estimated proportion of people aged 16-64 in Blackburn with
Darwen who were disabled based on DDA definition in 2009 was 4.6%, 15.3% were
both work-limiting disabled based on the DDA definition
8.4
infant mortality - Over the period 2003-2005 Blackburn with Darwen had an
infant mortality rate of 6.4 deaths per 1,000 live births, the North West rate is 5.7 and
the national rate is 5.1.Pendle has the highest infant mortality rate with 9.9 per 1,000
live births; Hyndburn has the second highest (7.7) and Burnley the third highest with
7.3. Ribble Valley meanwhile has an infant mortality rate of 5.3 and Rossendale the
lowest with 3.4 per 1,000 live births.
8.5
Mortality - Figures for mortality for all causes and all ages, Circulatory disease
and all cancers show that over the period 2006-08 in Blackburn with Darwen, the all
age, all cause mortality rate was 749.9 deaths per 100,000, this is higher than both the
regional and national averages. The mortality rate from circulatory disease was 257
and from cancers 198.4, again both are higher than the regional and national rates.
Comparing Pennine Lancashire district mortality rates for the three causes shows
Blackburn with Darwen to have the highest all age, all cause mortality and Ribble
Valley (526.1) the lowest, indeed Blackburn with Darwen has the highest mortality
rates of all Pennine Lancashire districts for all three causes. Ribble Valley in contrast
has the lowest.
In Blackburn with Darwen, the overall crime rate, using types of crime comparable
with the British Crime Survey in 2009/10, was 48.7 crimes per 1,000 people. The crime
rate has decreased over successive years, in 2007/08 the overall crime rate was 60.5
and in 2008/09 it was 55.3
As can be seen the most prevalent type of crime for Blackburn with Darwen and
other Pennine Lancashire districts are: Violence against the person and Criminal
damage including arson, Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley have the highest of any
Pennine Lancashire district and Ribble valley the lowest.
Over time 2005/06 to 2009/10 recorded crime levels decreased in Blackburn with
Darwen, the largest decrease has been for robbery (-53.8%) and theft from the
person (-53.6%), the lowest decrease has been for harassment including penalty
notices for discharge. Common Assault however increased by 1%.
For a copy of the full report or further information about the Economic Assessment
contact:
Saeed Patel: saeed.patel@blackburn.gov.uk, 01254 585106 or
Kenneth Barnsley: Kenneth.barnsley@blackburn.gov.uk, 01254 585183
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council
Third Floor
Town Hall
Blackburn
BB1 7DY
Corporate Research Joint Intelligence