AP STATISTICS
UNIT 3: Probability Theory
High School Mathematics
The Practice of Statistics, 2nd Ed.
Target Time Frame: 11 – 14 days
STANDARD
IIIA: Understand and apply the “Law of
Large Numbers”, the addition and
multiplication probability rules; find
conditional probability; understand discrete
random variables and their probability
distributions, including binomial; conduct
simulations of distributions, including
binomial and geometric; compute the mean
and standard deviation of a random
variable; conduct transformation of a
random variable.
IIIB: Understand the difference between
independent and dependent variables and
independent and disjoint; find the mean and
standard deviation for sums and differences
of independent random variables.
IIIC: Know properties of the normal
distribution; use tables of the normal
ESSENTIAL
QUESTION
What is the Law of
Large Numbers?
When would I ever
use probability?
How do I find the
expected value of a
discrete random
variable?
What does Craps
have to do with
statistics?
What is the
difference between a
binomial distribution
and a geometric one?
What is the
difference between
independent and
dependent variables?
What does disjoint
mean?
If two random
variables are
normal/not normal,
how does that affect
their linear
combination?
What is a z-score?
How do normal
DEPTH for
MASTERY
All
Sections
COMMENTS
Ch. 6.1, 6.3
Resources:
The Game of Craps
(Activity 7, TPOS)
The Casino Lab (GRB)
Ch. 7.1, 7.2
Activity 8A-Plinko (GRB)
Chapter 8
Special Problem 7A
Special Problem 6C (GRB)
Ch. 5.3
2001-FR#2
All
Ch. 6.2
Ch. 7.2
All
Ch. 2.1, 2.2
Resources:
2002-FR#3
2003B-FR#2
Resources:
APEX-Classtools Online
distribution; use the normal distribution as
a model for measurements.
IIID: Identify and calculate statistics to
describe sampling distributions of sample
proportions and sample means, and
distributions of the difference between 2
sample proportions and 2 sample means;
apply the Central Limit Theorem; simulate
a sampling distribution.
distributions relate to
probability
distributions?
What does it mean to
have high variability
of a statistic?
Can I use normal
approximations?
What is the CLT?
How do I use my
calculator or
computer to conduct
a simulation?
Ch. 7.1
All
Ch. 5.3
Resources:
Activity 9A (TPOS)
Chapter 9
1998-FR#1
UNIT COMMENTS: This unit must be completed prior to the AP Exam. Notes in the Comments column that have a year and FR#
refer to an AP Exam, noting the year and free response question number.